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Boris Johnson, who heads a minority government in Britain following resignation of Theresa May, will do just about anything to push Britain out of the European Union by October 31st. He has said he would "rather be dead in a ditch" than ask for an extension of the October 31st deadline. The British parliament is dead set on preventing that and has passed legislation requiring a extension of the October 31st deadline to January 2020. Johnson is even willing to go to jail for breaking the law, on the grounds that he is simply supporting the people's referendum choice over an elected parliament. This is itself a strange situation because the elected representatives in parliament decide for the people, and views in a referendum can change over time. Johnson says the reports of Britain's economy taking a blow from simply falling out of the European Union without a negotiated deal are exaggerated. He even once said all it means is that there might be "a shortage of Mars chocolate bars." Before becoming prime minister with a one vote majority in parliament which he promptly lost on the first day parliament met, Boris was a journalist who was elected Mayor of London. His only other position was for a brief period with controversy as Foreign Secretary in Theresa May's government. By taking in as chief adviser the head of the Brexit referendum Leave campaign Mr. Cummings, Mr. Johnson shows he believes he could win a general election with a carefully orchestrated campaign like that of Leave that blames the Labour Party, and the Scottish National party for stopping Brexit and halting the people's mandate.  The question is whether Cummings has gone too far or Boris Johnson has gone too far using Cumming's methods and views. Many Conservative moderates were expelled from the Conservative Party by Johnson and Cummings leaving the Conservative Party in self-destructive mode and the worst shape it has been in its history. It is not clear that after 10 years of austerity and rule by the Conservative party, and the mess from the single minded pursuit of Brexit that has overshadowed Britain's other priorities, that the British public would simply give a broken Conservative Party another mandate without thinking carefully about all the consequences. More so amid the lack of trust that is a feature of the Boris Johnson minority government.  ...

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The migrants moving north from Central American countries is a result of gangs taking control of neighborhoods with extortion rackets and little control from the authorites. In one country San Salvador gangs control most of the nation's municipalities. Unlike the drug gangs these gangs a residual of the guerilla wars in these countries and other gangs, operate in their own neighborhoods. As  this report points out the gangs employ about three times as many people as the largest 2 employers in San Salvador Hanes Brands and Fruit of the Loom. The cost of this is about $4 billion or 16% of GDP according to the country's central bank with a major loss being human, losing the best people and lost investment.

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This editorial in the WSJ says Europe should plan for expanding its role in defense, because the U.S voters in the primaries for both political parties appear to be calling for less U.S. engagement in the world. It says Trump, Sanders, and Clinton voters are moving towards less engagement, and calling for the U.S. to spend less in overseas engagements, more at home. It points out that only Britain, Estonia, Greece, Poland and the U.S. spend the 2% of GDP on defense that is considered a requirement for NATO membership.

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The Fed's Jerome Powell makes a half percentage point rate cut that takes the federal funds rate to between 4.75% and 5.00%.  11 of 12 Fed governors supported the decision for a half percentage point rate cut.

Powell said:

"We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained.”

This is the US central bank's, the Fed's response to high cost of living concerns in the US. It provides relief to households with credit card balances, and business with variable rate debt. Rates for corporate debt and mortgages had started declining in anticipation of rate cuts.

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The top 20% of Americans own 87% of the stocks powering most of the spending in 2025. Upward trends in the stock market in the US with resilient markets overcoming the Liberation Day tariffs announcement, are powering the spending by higher income professionals and business people. WSJ looks at the people owning stocks ages 36 years to 77 years, and their spending on cars, furniture, home renovation and travel. The situation is not so good for middle class Americans living from paycheck to paycheck, students and young people.

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Turkey's lira loses 34% of its value since September 2007 and its foreign exchange reserves are limited at $74 billion. It is setting up abackup facility for $10 billion from the IMF but has insisted that with its young population it needs strong growth to create jobs, and opposes any IMF requirement to scale back investment, government spending and growth targets.

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Ford Motor hopes to create a new image for the company with its new high tech, energy friendly headquarters building and interconnected buildings in Dearborn, Michigan.

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Bernie Sanders is reelected Senator from Vermont, as one of the oldest and most senior members of the US Congress in history. He will be 89 at the end of his fourth term in the US Senate. At 83 years he is the most resilient and active Senator in the US. Bernie Sanders support was key for president Biden's election in 2020. “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic party which has abandoned working-class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” Sanders said. “First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right. “Today, while the very rich are doing phenomenally well, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and we have more income and wealth inequality than ever before. Unbelievably, real, inflation-accounted-for weekly wages for the average American worker are actually lower now than they were 50 years ago. “Today, despite an explosion in technology and worker productivity, many young people will have a worse standard of living than their parents. And many of them worry that Artificial Intelligence and robotics will make a bad situation even worse. “Today, despite spending far more per capita than other countries, we remain the only wealthy nation not to guarantee healthcare to all as a human right and we pay, by far, the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs. We, alone among major countries, cannot even guarantee paid family and medical leave.” ...

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The methods to fight fires in Canada on the vast empty forests of Quebec and Alberta are very different from that in more populated California. Fires in Canada get less attention and fire fighting starts later than in the US where there are homes to save in fire burning areas of California. Fires in Canada are even allowed to burn themselves out with little action taken where this works best. 

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India UK trade has been neglected over the years. In 2021 India accounts for less than 2% of total UK trade. During the period before the pandemic 2010 to 2019 UK exports declined by 3%. During that time the US increased exports to India by 79%, Canada by 62%, and France by 58%, says this report in The Guardian. This happened even though India is the leading country in the British Commonwealth and one would expect much stronger trade ties. This is one reason UK prime minister Boris Johnson is putting a high priority on building up trade with India during his visit to India. UK Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan seeks to double the current 22 billion pounds trade between India and the UK by 2030.

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This BBC independent review into its economic coverage by Dilnot and Blastland covered by The Guardian, shows that economics has been badly presented and mostly misunderstood in the culture and the media, leading to errors in policy that hurt workers and families in Britain and the US. Tory spending cuts in Britain have led to a lost 400 billion pounds in growth since 2010, says The Guardian citing the TUC report. Britain's GDP would be 2 trillion pounds higher today if the pre-1979 growth rate was maintained, says TUC. This editorial says about the framing of the debt and spending in the culture and media- "It is an anti-democratic bias that shuts people out of discussion about their lives and their society."

 

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DW.com's Becker looks at how much an iPhone would cost if made in the USA. Jason Dedrick of Syracuse University says it would add $20-$30 if final assembly was done in the U.S.. If components and parts were also made in the U.S. this would go up to $80-$90. Other factors are that the production clusters set up by Foxconn have taken three decades to set up and would take time to replicate. President Trump has said Apple should make the iPhones in the U.S. to create jobs. As Foxconn is rapidly adding robots and automation the number of jobs are shrinking in the production process.

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Fed divided on US rate cuts August 2025.

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VW sales of automobiles in the U.S. declined by 15% in November 2015 providing the first indication that buyers in the U.S. are responding to the emissions cheating scandal. More disclosures and statements by VW about "a chain of mistakes" going back to 2005 could lead to further erosion in the U.S. market.

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After the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, China and the European Union sought to fill the leadership on this issue. Yet the reality now looks to be different. China decreased coal consumption between 2014-2016. Now China is ramping up coal generation as it needs to provide stimulus to a slowing economy as trade relations with the U.S. worsening.  In 2017 the trend reversed with state backed loans to help economic growth and surge in provincial permits.  China is now moving forward with plans to add coal fired power equal to almost the total U.S. capacity, according to Coalswarm, which tracks power plants worldwide for coal use. This would push coal fired production to above the cap of 1,100 gigawatts China has set and its current cap. Its current production is already about half of the world's total coal fired generation and quadruple that of the U.S. In 2017 China made up one fourth of total CO2 productions.  Canada is missing its emissions targets and is not likely to meet 2020 targets say experts. In the EU members reliant on coal power energy oppose EU parliament efforts to end subsidies to the most polluting plants by 2025, seeking delay of one decade. At the climate change talks in Katowice, Poland, these changes are facing opposition. As a sign of how the situation is changing since the 2015 Paris Accords, the protests in France by yellow vest protestors started in opposition to a carbon tax intended to meet France's climate change targets. That tax increase is being withdrawn by president Macron. Families struggling financially had a different perception of the increase in the fuel tax and even young people who support meeting emissions reduction joined the protests, as reported in the New York Times and The Times. This tells a lot about how the issue of climate change has changed in the public perception in three years. ...

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With the death toll over 10,000 on March 7, and a rise of 16% over the previous day, French public health authorites have set new rules for exercize with a daytime jogging ban. Jogging is allowed only when the streets are at the quietest in Paris and not allowed between 10.00 and 19.00 local time.

France's lockdown is strict unlike that in America. Anyone going outside has to carry a document giving the reason- shopping for necessities, visiting a doctor, or exercize within 1 kilometre or half a mile of their address. Police have fined hundreds of thousands of people for breaking these restrictions.

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This is a story of missteps in retailing that can lead to loss of as many jobs as when large automobile plants close-about 65000 jobs in retail at big box store Bed Bath & Beyond in 2019 down to 32,000 by 2022, and with all stores closing in 2023 all jobs lost. Some of these jobs were replaced with the growth of Amazon in online retailing and warehousing shipment, others permanently lost. Jordyn Holman and Lauren Hirsch of the NYT explain how a major retailer collapses into bankruptcy in 2023. This retail chain started in 1971 thrived on its two founder's concept of building a customer base around a store that piled high the volume of merchandise selection for bedsheets, towels, pillows, kitchen appliances, and offered 20% coupons on brand items. It survived the 2009 crisis and by 2012 its stores were up to 1100 from 350 ten years earlier in 2000. This was a result of 4 acquisitions including Buy Buy Baby and Harmon Stores Its collapse is a textbook case of what can happen. Its financial foundations were weakened by a bond offering $1.5 billion, going into the debt market for the first time.   From its success attracting activist investors and the company according to analysts trying to fend them off. The bond offering was the first step to impending disaster. In 2019 three activist investors won a fight to appoint 4 new board members and hire a new CEO Mr. Tritton from Target.  The big change happening just before the pandemic was the complete change of management with the new CEO. Stores that had made the decisions on what merchandise to buy based on location were no longer allowed to do so. Some stores were closed and there were layoffs reducing employee morale. The big change came to the 20% coupons which was the unique feature of the store getting people back into the store. Coupons were cut back as profits declined. The pandemic introduced new elements of surprise. The supply chains were disrupted, and just at that time new management decided to shift to private labels to increase margins and sales. Kitchen Aid was replaced with private labels. As a result of supply chain disruptions the stores could not be stocked leading to customers moving away, a crisis was brewing. At that very time something concealed the crisis from view. The Biden administration checks to support people during the pandemic led to a sudden increase in sales, a one time spurt. Then as suddenly as the spurt months later a complete dropoff in sales. Management closed more stores, suppliers who were not paid demanded to be prepaid leading to stores being only partly stocked. Bed Bath & Beyond collapsed as its coupons were dropped, its stores poorly stocked, no brand merchandise such as Kitchen Aid, and decisions made at the wrong time including the debt load all taking a toll at once. By the end of 2022 bankruptcy loomed. In April 2023 the company declared bankruptcy after failed efforts to raise additional financing. The same changes also hit Best Buy, another big box retailer, which managed the changes to internet buying by shifting sales to the healthcare sector, and continuing to build on it strengths as a retailer of motivated employees with knowledge of the electronic merchandise. It made it right through the pandemic without the changes in management that happened at Bed Bath & Beyond. ...

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Japan will become the first country to issue climate bonds to finance action against climate change. This will bring in private capital. Japan will issue $5 billion in climate bonds (800 billion yen). A total of 20 trillion yen of climate bonds, sovereign debt securities, will be issued.

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Todd Schlanger, senior investment strategist at Vanguard, is cited in this WSJ report saying the 60-40 strategy makes sense now because of lower stock valuations and higher bond yields. His forecast for Vanguard for a 60% stocks and 40% bonds globally diversified strategy is for a annualized 10 year median return of 5.4%. Schlanger says 60-40 strategy used to be a bellwether, and that strategy is an enduring strategy.

Stock valuations that Schlanger says are lower are reflected in the S&P 500 which is trading at 18.2 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, down from 21.6 at the start of 2022. The 10 year average is 17.5.