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Strong criticism from Attorney General Luisa Ortega, and dissension inside the government, led to the Supreme Court retracting parts of its decision to nullify the powers of the legislature. Ortega called the move "a rupture of the constitutional order." Most of the judges are appointed on the court by the Maduro government. Strong criticism by the OAS calling it a "self inflicted coup", by other governments in Latin America, also led to retracting parts of the decision by the Supreme Court. Nicholas Maduro succeeded Mr. Chavez who was the democratically elected president of Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. Maduro narrowly won the election in 2013 by a margin of about 1.5% over Henrique Capriles. In 2015 in National Assembly elections the opposition parties won a majority in the National Assembly. Protests against the Maduro government were followed by a recall attempt in 2016 which was suppressed. Inflation and economic conditions in Venezuela worsened under Maduro with the collapse of oil prices. The devaluation of the currency, high inflation and shortages of basic goods have led to widespread protests. As the situation worsened the Supreme Court in support of the government gradually chipped away at the powers of the National Assembly since 2016, leading to the situation in April 2016 with  the effort to strip the Assembly of all powers and remove the immunity from prosecution of legislators. Maduro is a former bus driver for the city of Caracas bus system, and a trade unionist. He was part of the movement supporting Chavez release after a coup attempt, foreign minister 2006-2013, and appointed Chavez successor in 2012.  Max Fisher and Amanda Taub of the NYT go on to discuss the writings of political scientists, including Dutch expert Cas Mudde, who pointed out that populism often starts its climb because established institutions and elites have become unresponsive to pubic needs. Yet the replacement is with what starts out as an effort to bring fairness- yet ends up creating another elite, suppressing opposition, and creating a new set of problems, even threatening the institutional framework of democracy such as elected assembly as happened last week in Venezuela.  In Venezuela the Chavez populist movement was initially intended to reduce corruption in the court system, the established parties control over media, and ensure oil revenues were used to provide services to poor regions and neighborhoods.  In the process over two decades it introduced a system that set up a Bolivarist class of its own based on socialist goals, failed to integrate the economy into the global economy for modernization, and created an overdependence on oil revenues that hurt the country when prices dropped sharply. High inflation, corruption, shortages of basic goods, and an economy slipping behind neighboring countries in Latin America, are the result by 2017. Seeing the situation in Venezuela in the context of current populist trends in the U.S. and Europe may be a stretch because the situation in Venezuela is unique to Latin America in some ways and is from an earlier period. High inflation, collapsing economy, debt problems and mismanagement of the economy, devaluation of currency, are problems faced by Brazil, Argentina, and other countries in Latin America, happening under conservative as well as populist governments since the 1960's. It is different in two respects, the disconnect with the global economy that prevents modernization, and the trend towards authoritarianism, as seen in Venezuela.     ...

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How electric utilities and the oil industry are backing California's fight with the EPA to regulate auto emissions, cutting them by 30% by 2016 for new cars and trucks in the state. Its a fight endorsed by 14 states in the Northeast and Northwest. California sued the EPA, and in effect the Bush Administration which controls the EPA, in federal district court and federal appeals court. THe EPA has taken two years to respond to California's request for a waiver so that it can regulate auto emissions in its state. California's auto emissions rules are part of a broad effort to reduce all emissions in the state by 25% by 2020, including by manufacturing, electric utilities and the oil industry. Utilities and the oil industry share the opinion that all sectors of the economy should be required to take on this responsibility, including the transportation sector. In the past oil companies and the auto industry have been at loggerheads about who is responsible for the worsening dependence of the USA on foreign oil and the worsening impact of the oil consumption on the environment and their advertising campaign have often shifted the blame on each other. Is this part of the continuing debate about oil as oil prices rise and consciousness about global warming rises as it has already done so in Europe. See the links to the Frankfurt Auto Show. BMW known for gas guzzling machines has done an aboutface in the face of public opinion in Germany and is advertising its image as environment friendly and investing in new technologies to curb emissions and increase fuel economy. ...

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Content Links 1. CANTARELL OIL FIELD LIVING UP TO WORST CASE SCENARIO OF INTERNAL PEMEX REPORT. That worst case scenario detailed in an internal oil company report suggested earlier in 2006 that the field's output could fall by about 75% by 2008. Output at Cantarell fell from 1.92 million barrels a day in January to 1.74 million barrels a day in June according to the Mexican Energy Ministry. (Mexico's total crude oil production was 3.3 million barrels a day and it exported 2 million barrels a day in 2005). 2. POLITICS AND HISTORY CONSTRAIN PEMEX EXPLORATION. The Mexican constitution bars Pemex from joining with foreign oil companies to conduct exploration in difficult environment like deep water exploration using the technology of privte oil companies. Mexico however depends on oil revenuesfor a third of its federal budget and declining oil output and future price declines could severely dent Mexico's finances. So there is a new awareness that this situation requires change and action to encourage collaboration and investment in exploration and new technologies. Felipe Calderon who won narrowly in the July Presidential election promised such changesto allow private oil companies to participate. Industry analysts believe that Mexico could find new fields in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico if it could use advanced exploration technology....

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Contrary to earlier media reports of Mr Naimi the Saudi oil minister saying that the market was healthy and "well balanced" and that no cuts were expected, it turns out that after extensive debate the OPEC ministers agreed on a cut of 520,000 barrels a day or less than 1% of the world's oil supply. It would put OPEC production back to 32.7 million barrels a day same as the first 3 months of 2008. This was done to avert excess supply in the market but Algeria's oil minister said that this would not affect the downward trend in prices as buyer nations in USA and Europe had already built up supply inventories from weaker demand. Iran, Libya and Algeria argued that there was a supply glut or imbalance from reduced demand. OPEC President is Chakib Khelil of Algeria. Russia's top energy ministers and head of Roseft attended ths OPEC meeting. Sechin head of Rosneft Russia's largest oil company run by the government said tht Russia is preparing a memorandum of understanding for deeened cooperation with OPEC. At tis point OPEC supplie 40% of the world's energy, Russia supplies another 11%. ...

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Arvind Subramanium, outgoing Chief Economic Adviser to the prime minister in an interview with the Hindu newspaper, shares some of the knowledge he gained from failures and successes. The key lesson he gained is that it is important to have independent advisers in government who can speak their mind. Finance minister Jaitley has embraced this point, that such an adviser is not just one more part in the technocratic machinery of government. The success in getting GST he says shows that cooperative federalism is needed going forward as a kind of technology for many changes, including agriculture, DBT.  Subramanium calls the Economic Survey a success with 350,000 unique visitors. He likes the independence and distance of the CEA job to propagate the big ideas combined with closeness to decisionmakers. He counts as a failure not being able to create an office of CEA to the states, a request from 7 chief ministers and state finance ministers. Subramanium sees the need for more people in government with specific expertise in different areas as opposed to generalists as the work of government is becoming much more sophisticated. There is much need for talent and the flow of lateral talent into government.  Responding to economic issues such as the impact of oil prices on the economy Subramanium sees CAD at 2%, inflation at 4.5% much better compared to 2013 levels of double digits and not in unhealthy territory and very manageable. He sees risks in the impact of a combination of oil prices, dollar appreciation, and currency trade wars that are happening. On Iranian oil imports and strict U.S. sanctions on importers Subramanium sees the cost of not complying as stiff once you are in the dollar trading system. On demonetisation he sees there are short term costs and potential long term gains that requires an assessment every 2-3 years provisionally, what happened to tax and formalization, and the costs. Including costs in inconvenience and hardship for informal cash intensive sectors noted in the Economic Survey. For GST he says the revenue growth rate is 16-17% in aggregate for next year, growing 12% in the first year after a difficult implementation. The poorer states have seen an expansion of tax base and revenue performance is unprecedented.    ...

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

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Problems facing Saudi Arabia in 2015 as King Salman, 79, takes over are an aging leadership, and lack of new solutions to problems facing the economy overly dependent on oil revenues and social spending. Like other Persian Gulf economies the oil sector makes up a large part of GDP- 44% for Saudi Arabia, and 59% for Kuwait. Under King Salman policies will remain the same as under King Abdullah. Social spending was boosted after the protests and political change in the Middle East in 2012-2013. Even with a drop in oil prices to below $50 a barrel high social spending and reliance on public sector jobs to meet the employment needs of young Saudis will continue. Young people under 25 years make up 47% of the Saudi population of 29 million. No new income streams are being pursued and taxation is not even considered as an option. The private sector is led by non-Saudis and is under financed with most employment generated in the public sector. Growing oil consumption inside the kingdom with its growing population is also likely to reduce the quantity of oil available for export in the long term. Reserves of $750 billion provide a buffer for now, but long term Saudi Arabia faces a structural deficit, says Steffen Hertog, an expert on Persian Gulf political economics, at the London School of Economics. ...

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OPEC fails to agree on increasing production quotas at its meeting in June 2011. Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador, and a number of other countries which have very little spare capacity were against increasing the quotas. The Saudis, the UAE, Kuwait argued for an increase because of increasing demand and disruptions in the supply from Libya and other parts of the Middle East. The Saudi oil minister described this as the most difficult OPEC meeting he has attended. Analysts expect the Saudis to increase production in the absence of an OPEC agreement.

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The drop of crude oil prices from $147 to $124 on the New York Mercantile Exchange due to weakening demand, does take the pressure off the Fed to raise interest rates from the current 2% to stem inflation psychology.

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The risks of the Fed's reinflation policy in 2010-2011. It risks increasing "bad" inflation, the kind that fall heaviest on low income households. Commodities are on fire, and the increase in the price of oil and food, would only leave consumers drowning in the new inflation, says Kelly Evans.

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An ECB report in Jan 2015 shows improvement in lending conditions in the eurozone. The ZEW Indicator of German business sentiment jumps to 48.4 points from 34.9 in December 2014, and 11.5 in November 2014. The poll takes into account financial analysts and investor sentiment. A weaker euro that is moving towards parity with the U.S. dollar improving prospect for European exports, and lower crude oil prices, are factors in the big change in business sentiment

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A slight shift in American opinion favoring a deal with Iran is shown in a WSJ/NBC poll in July 2015 compared to the poll in April 2015. Support for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran remains stable at 36% in both polls, the opposed drops by 6 percentage points to 17% from 23%, and the percentage of people who say they do not know enough to formulate an opinion goes up to 46% from 40%. The intricacies of a nuclear technology deal and the sites involved lead to a high percentage of don't know enough to give an opinion. Factors hindering a deal include inspection of military sites, and Iranian intentions. Factors favoring reaching a deal now is the risk that this would mean Iran would go back into isolation and the opportunity to work with moderates might be lost. The Rouhani administration was an effort by voters to elect a government that could ease or remove sanctions to improve the economy and living conditions- its failure would lead to Iran losing an opportunity to open up to the world. The pressure from the U.S. Congress and Israel served to push for a verifiable and effective agreement to control development of nuclear technology for weapons systems. Behavioural factors involved are the very young population in Iran which has no memories about the period before the revolution in 1979- 70% of the population of 74 million are people under the age of 35. This group is eager for ties to the outside and could change Iran's outlook and policies int the future towards moderation. Risks in not reaching a deal also include the possibility of the Saudis developing nuclear technology and nuclear proliferation. Winners from a deal because of the flow of Iranian oil to world markets and a period of extended low oil prices are the U.S., Europe, China and India. Germany gains new markets to replace the growth in the Russian market after sanctions. Lifting of an arms embargo, an added risk in the last days of the talks, would be mitigated by making the lifting of that embargo very gradual....

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Judith Dobrzynski's interview with David Neelman, CEO of Jet Blue, at the airlines offices in Forest Hills, Queens. Neelman talks about the problems facing Jet Blue as it faces losses in 2006. This follows rapid expansion at the low cost carrier. He says Jet Blue did not monitor costs effectively. "Other problems include not pricing connections competitively with other airlines and poor revenue management. Analysts say low cost carriers will have a difficult time with high oil prices. Neelman maintains that it still works for oil at $60 a barrel. Jet Blue is turning its order of 100 Embraer jets, planes with 100 seats and 200 mile range to advantage, by gaining flexibility to serve short haul destinations from New York and Boston to Columbus, Tucson, Nashville, Houston and other places.

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After the ruble declines by about 30% in 2014, and a $30 billion failed intervention in October, the Bank of Russia decided to go to a free float of the ruble starting Nov. 10. 2014. Bank of Russia governor, Nabiullina stated it was "impossible to stand against fundamental factors" for a Russia so dependent on oil exports. The oil price dropped below $80 in Nov. 2014. Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves dropped to $421 billion in early Nov. less than enough to cover 6 months of imports. Nabiullina says the ruble has the potential to firm without "additional negative external factors."

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The Petrocaribe program has cost Venzuela about $22.1 billion, according to one estimate from the University of Texas, Austin. Under the program participating countries would pay a heavily subisidized price, and received long term loans for the cost at rates of as low as 1%. Petrocaribe countries, including Jamaica, get about 100,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. Oil at $61 a barrel covers only half of Venezuela's budget, and the government has announced cuts in spending of 20%. The IMF estimates that in 2013 such oil shipments declined by 15%, and in 2014 the shipments have declined another 20%.

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After OPEC says in a joint decision that it will stick to strictly followin quotas set earlier this year which would mean a modest drop in production, Saudi officials spread the word that they will continue to pump out as much oil as the world needs. So what is the end result? The Saudis are saying they went along yet they will continue to pump oil like before. Part of the reason is the Saudi belief in their own argument that with high prices the world economy would be further affected resuklting in a possible collapse of demand and of prices something it seeks to avoid and is in everybody's interest. This makes sense if one looks at the deep financial crisis facing the US and which has ripples around the world, most recently in financial mmarkets the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie and the possible collapse or sale of Lehman Brothers. And as U.S. elections are up in a few weeks the Saudis do not want to anything that can be interpreted one way or the other, and also a wait and see attitude because a lot of information about the US and world economy is not yet in....

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Infrastructure development in Indonesia neglected by previous administrations gets a boost under President Jokowi. Since 2014 Jokowi has taken advantage of a fall in oil prices to cap the fuel subsidy given by the government.  This has allowed more money to go into infrastructure projects. In 2014 $15 billion was allocated to infrastructure, increasing by 2017 to $30 billion.  Jokowi has plans for 222 national strategic projects , including roads, railways, bridges, power stations. Of this 127 are under construction, 20 completed. Under president Suharto from 1968 to 1998 for 3 decades infrastructure was neglected. One example is the situation in Jakarta where only 4% of the residents are connected to the sewer system. Most of the investment is being made (80%) by the government. Much remains to be done in this densely populated country with many islands and poor roads. A China supported plan to connect Jakarta with Bandung by high speed rail remains held up for 2 years with difficulties in moving people in Java's densely populated areas. ...

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As oil prices decline to $40 a barrel in August 2015, the Kazakhstan government decides to save foreign currency reserves used to intervene in currency markets. The result is that the currency, the Tenge, loses a fourth of its value in August 2015.

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The Consumer Price Index CPI rose by 8.3% in August, US Labor Department reports from same month a year ago. This is down 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June, even though oil prices are coming down. The average household is spending $460 a month more to pay for the same basket of goods and services than last year according to Moody's. Core CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices was higher in August at 6.3% compared to 5.9% in July and June 2022. The US price of gasoline was average of $3.71 at the pump in August down 26% from its high in June, according to OPIS/DowJones.