LyrArc Article Gist
US trade with Germany now exceeds China's trade with Germany. With the change in supply chains, slower German economy leading to lower imports and a slowing Chinese economy, this is likely to lead to US and Germany having increasing trade relations and two way trade from now on.

LyrArc Article Gist
This BBC analysis typical of media reporting that denies the need for level playing field in world trade, asking US to run $1 trillion trade deficits and its manufacturing to wither, American workers to suffer severe wage and job losses. AI won't know.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany imports hardly 6% of it's oil from the Middle East compared to 13% for the European Union. This makes it possible for Germany to take its own position on Iran independent of oil supply considerations.  More important for Germany is Iran's support for Russia in the Ukraine war, a sore point for Germany and the EU considering the enormous damage done by Iranian drones in Ukraine including civilian targets. Merz says" the threat posed by this regime stretches far beyond the region. It must be shut down."  A breakdown of German imports of oil shows mostly all from outside the Middle East, after the shift away from Russia Germany has made a decision to stay away from the volatile Middle East for supplies. (Germany had a deal with Qatar for LNG but the EU has already done a deal with the US for LNG and Germany has followed the EU with its own trade deal to import LNG from the US.) Norway, 2.5 million tons, United States, 12.4 million tons Libya, 10.4 million tons, Kazakhstan 10.3 million tons The UK, 8.7 million tons, Guyana, 4.2 million tons ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The UK will drop retaliatory tariffs on Boeing on the issue of subsidies following final Brexit.

LyrArc Article Gist
German management consultancy Roland Berger says in astudy that the cash for clunkers plan in Germany is likely to backfire by pulling in sales from 2010. It says car sales in Germany may fall by 20% in 2010, about 90,0000 jobs may be lost, and one in 2 car dealerships could be threatened with failure. GDP in Germany it says could take ahit. Roland Berger's partner Ralf Landmann says the German car market is good for 3.0 to 3.3 ,million cars per year. With sales in 2009 expected to be at 3.7 million, the forecast for 2010 are at 2.7 million to 2.8 million. Economist Carsten Dreger of DIW research institute in Berlin goes further. He says the cash for clunkers program was cannibalizing sales of other consumer products, in addition to taking sales from 2010.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bank of England governor Mervyn King's speech at the Economc Club of New York in Dec. 2012. About incoming governor Mark Carney, King says "I think he'll do a great job and they won't miss me at all." He says one way or another the U.S. will find a way to avoid the fiscal cliff. He sees a tension between short and long term policy goals such as recapitalizing banks and having governments reduce their debt.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US trade deficit at about $10 billion in 1995 reached a high of about $65 billion by 2007. Now the figures are expected by economists to drop in March from $62 billion to $61 billion as exports increase and the US imports less. The trade deficit is finally moving in the other direction. But the strength of this trend depends a lot on how strong the rest of the world economy remains to draw in US exports. It also depends on the dollar, and the dollar strengthened by about 4% against the euro in the first two weeks of May.

LyrArc Article Gist
Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The EU agreement with Mercosur representing South American nations Argentina and Brazil is unlikely to go through with protests by French farmers who see exports threatening their livelihood at a time when costs of fertilizer, electricity, and other inputs are increasing. The French prime minister Attal says "France is clearly opposed to signing the Mercosur Treaty." French farmers are conducting a siege of Paris with tractors in long lines along the highways traveling from regions 300 miles away. A treaty with New Zealand allowing import of muttton is also opposed by farmers. EU treaties were used to increase export of cars and other industrial products from Germany, in exchange for allowing in agricultural or commodities such as lithium or metals, and soyabeans. Farmers in other European countries including Germany have also conducted protest in recent months about high costs of inputs and lack of enough government support. Dutch farmers were able to block some environmental measures on methane taken by the Dutch government and leading to a new government in the recent election. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Any Asian conflict involving China would in a few months destroy Apple's value, CEO's would change quickly, and Apple policies change to shift entire production to India and the US in a rapid shift. Tim Cook would be seen as having gambled against America's interests, unresponsive and failing after repeated warnings.  Apple's goal of sourcing from India by 2027 a mere 26% of its iphones, means that a decade after USTR Lighthizer and DJT started the task of reshoring manufacturing to US and allies in 2016, the No. 1 outshoring company would still be making 75% of its dollar value iphones in China. A degree of overconcentration that would make no sense considering that Apple's 75% of manufacturing would be entirely at risk in 2027 after repeated warnings and inaction. The only option for Tim Cook in 2025 is to come up with new goals of shifting a minimum of 50-60% of its dollar value product manufacturing for iphones to India by 2027. . Tim Cook as Apple CEO has done little to prevent the overconcentration of manufacturing in China since 2016. About 10 years after DJT was elected to bring manufacturing back to India or close allies the simple idea of diversification was not implemented. Why? Having set up this system starting in 1998, a system that did not exist before that tiem when Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook with a winning formula to Make in China, a country just emerging from its Communist phase of failed state economy. By 2008 in 10 years the infrastructure was built in a backward largely agricultural economy that was rapidly modernizing under a market economy with state run capitalism under the Communist Party experiment. The Bush Obama 16 years were ones with America not responding to the challenge posed by this new system which could create huge surges in production capacity with focus on key technologies and flood markets. The next decade after 1998-2008 was one of rapid growth of this experiment which combined with design and engineering in the US generated few jobs in manufacturng in the US, but huge profits with huge margins fro a low cost base with a high image and technology innovation product. Lighthizer, Navarro, Jamieson had already sounded the alarm for American manufacturing and loss of jobs in 2016.  America's deindustrialization was becoming a bigger challenge by 2020 so that president Biden continued the policy of reindustrializing. In 2025 China 2025 Plan that was a warning in 2016 is already a reality with China flooding the world in solar panels, and ready to flood the markets overseas with electric cars. Apple may only get a reprieve, this exemption is not the same as the last one. National security is an issue, key technologies need to be protected. There is only one more opportunity to rebuild American manufacturing and keep promises.     ...