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How the IMF conditionality has changed in the 2009 global economic crisis. The IMF head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn of France, is aware how sensitive nations around the world have become to the word IMF. So much so that it has even suggested removing the word IMF from loans to get takers. The IMF conditons worsened the S. Korean financial crisis in 1998. See link to this. This time Kahn has advocated that the developed countries of Europe and the USA increase stimulus spending to 2% of GDP.And there are fewer calls for cutting spending in developing countries offered help by the IMF. Pakistan was asked to increase interest rates by 3% but actually increased them by 2% to fight inflation. But to get some idea how the IMF is viewed with suspicion and hostility in many countries one has to listen to comments made. The move for Pakistan was so unpopular in 2008 that Mohsin Khan a top IMF official says he met with agroup of generals to get their backing. Some IMF officials insistend on a 10% rate increase. Something like that would have led to riots in Pakistani cities. IMF loaned Pakistan $7.6 billion. When S. Korea said no to the IMF credit line, Lee Hyoung-ryoul, a Korean Finance Ministry official said that S. Koreans tremble and financial markets turn sensitive whenever they hear the word "IMF." This time Brazil, S. Korea and Mexico, were offered condition free credit lines. But it has found no takers from these three conuntries, so badly is the IMF viewed in developing countries. Even though it appears that Kahn, in the small club of western nation's officials and staff that form the governing body of the IMF, is trying to give the IMF a new image, its just so bad and the views of the old timers at the IMF on spending or interest rates so contrary to the needs of people in the developed and developing countries, that a new generation of people in finance and economics will be needed before real change is established. ...

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IMF economist Oliver Blanchard, says the euro's depreciation vis-a-vis the dollar "would be a good thing." Because "in a way Europe needs it more than the U.S., and the U.S. could probably offset it in some way." The IMF forecast is for a 0.3% contraction in the eurozone in 2012 and growth at 0.7% in 2013. Blanchard says a drop in the euro exchange rate of 10% would normally boost growth in GDP by 1.4%.

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The Ukraine war could go on for months in a prolonged war of attrition now that Russian strategy is to withdraw its forces near Kviv and concentrate its forces in the east - on Donbas and Luhansk- says this report in the WSJ. US, Britain and other allied nations in Europe are increasing assistance to Ukraine in the conflict which could result in a long conflict. The result could be lasting changes in how the world was perceived pre covid and pre Ukraine. As in past conflicts in Europe there may be no winners in this war, just lasting changes in economic structures, more refugees integrated into the Eastern European economies, and accelerated changes in supply chains, renewable energy investment. Russia's people are not fully engaged, with use of younger less motivated and trained soldiers, leading to a conflict similar to that of the earlier period in European history where kings in Europe fought wars for geopolitical advantage, small territorial gains, and wars ended in small shifts in the balance of power between England, France, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Russia. German chancellor Scholz is said to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms account of this in a book titled- "Europe." The book is appropriately subtitled "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Simms sees Germany as critical to what happens in Europe.  One of the key changes is the reintegration of Germany and European Union with the US as happened during the years after world War II. The policies pursued by former chancellor Merkel in relation to China and Russia and the integration of the German and European economies with China and Russia is likely to be reversed for stronger US-EU ties under the Scholz and Biden leadership of the alliance, and stronger economic ties with Japan and India in Asia.     ...

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The chief political reporter for the German daily The Bild, says Ursula Von der Leyen EU Commission president's performance on ensuring vaccine supplies is a disgrace for the EU and Germany. For once Brexiteers are proved right he says with having negotiated a better deal with vaccine suppliers, not being stingy like the EU officials, paying good money and securing supplies as early as April.  He says the EU's bureaucracy, its sluggish response, miserly attitude is now being confirmed in this health crisis and Germany is not looking good at all. Tiede says Leyen failed at the German Defense ministry and like other ministers in this situation was shifted into the EU Commission bureaucracy,only to fail again. He suggests Merkel and the heads of France, and Italy, Spain take over negotiating directly from now on with pharmaceutical companies. The EU officials are under severe criticism in Europe, shown here for different EU countries. Leyen is shown to have blundered further by creating a spat with Astra Zeneca- either she did not read the contract or was ignorant of what it meant, say critics. The EU's deal with Astra Zeneca was not with binding provisions, making EU officials at fault. Der Tiegesspiegel called EU's failure to admit its mistakes "jaw dropping" and bordered on "shamelessness." Der Spiegel calls it the worst catastrophe of Leyen's career. This now means Germany will have only 70% of its population vaccinated by September 2021, say experts. ...

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A cap on oil prices till the end of 2022 and beyond, indexing pension payments to inflation, and providing more income to self-employed, are some of the ways reelected president Macron plans to meet the cost of living crisis. A parliamentary majority is expected yet cohabitation with Mr. Melenchon as prime minister is a possibility says this FR24 support. Mr. Melenchon who narrowly missed beating Le Pen to become the second round candidate is positioning himself to lead France into the second term presidency of Mr. Macron. It was with the help of Melenchon supporters that Macron was able to win the presidency in the second round. Melenchon campaigned in the belief that the presidency had become too powerful and remote from the issues facing ordinary people. Melenchon as prime minister could bring someone familiar with the struggles of ordinary people in cost of living and to get good manufacturing jobs into the leadership ranks for the fight to Build Better in Europe. ...

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 FR24's Cyril Payen reports on the battle of Dien Bien Phu in northern Vietnam in 1954 marking end of French colonial rule in Indochina. Under Eisenhower administration and John Foster Dulles the Cold War with Soviets cast a shadow over the struggle for freedom from colonial rule of the Vietnamese people. After the French left in 1954 remaining American advisers cast a shadow over John F. Kennedy's new vision for the world that included freedom from colonial rule for Asia and Africa. Facing a struggle in Eastern Europe with Soviet tanks in Budapest in 1956, US was unwillingly dragged into France's colonial conflict after Kennedy's assassination. Kennedy's vision for the New Frontier was never realized following a series of mediocre presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Obama and Trump that wasted resources in far away wars. America is only now recovering Kennedy's vision of the New Frontier of 1960. ...

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Antonis Samaras continues his efforts to get the EU to agree to a two year extension for deficit targets agreed to in the March 202 bailout. He meets Merkel in Berlin, Aug. 24 and Hollande in Paris, Aug. 25. Merkel's coalition partners the Free Democrats oppose an extension. The opposition Social Democrats leader Steinmeier tells the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper "its not very smart to abandon all conditions for aid over an extension of 12 months." Samaras tells the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper: "our economy shrank 27%. Greece is bleeding, It is really bleeding." And German finance minister Schauble tells Germany's SWR2 radio that its too early for Greece to come back and say the agreed aid is insufficient considering that its ony 6 months since the March 2012 agreement. Merkel and other leaders in the Christian Democrats say they will wait till a report from the troika (the EU, ECB and the IMF) in October 2012 before responding.

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Relations between Germany and the U.S. improve in the last year of the Obama administration. The low point is the NSA spying scandal. By 2015 with the Ukraine crisis and the refugee crisis, the U.S. and Germany develop closer relations. In April 2016 U.S. president Obama visits the Hannover trade fair and meets German chancellor Merkel, following a trip to Britian where he expresses support for Britain's membership in the EUropean Union. The U.S. general election campaign with less engagement of the U.S. in the world preferred by candidates Trump and Sanders, the Brexit vote in Britain, also creates a new environment and makes clear the need to support closer ties in an interconnected world.

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Experts discuss how to draw on your interests and passions for using time in the 20 some retirement years with good health.

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In this exceptional piece Krugman says Greece has won flexibility in the negotiations with the EU in April 2015, contrary to the media coverage. He says under the Samaras government negotiated agreement with the EU the primary surplus, the difference between the revenue and expenditures not including interest on debt, would have to be triple what it would be now for the next few years. This is the only figure that matters, says Krugman, as it is the amount that is transferred to the creditors. The Syriza government plans to run only a small primary surplus, which itself involves large sacrifices in Greece with the drop in revenues from the decline in the economy. Language about future surpluses is left obscure, and Greece continues to get financing for the next few months. In other areas Syriza agreed to structural reforms in the labor market regulations, and to take strong action against tax evasion, which he describes as constructive steps on the path to economic recovery.

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A proposal to transfer debt in excess of 60% of GDP of all eurozone countries into a single fund to be paid off in 25 years is gaining attention in Germany. It is seen as finding acceptance with Germany's Constitutional Court. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, says eurobonds are unconstitutional in Germany. Germany calls instead for greater European integration and transfer of powers from sovereign governments to a European banking supervisory authority. In early June 2012 discussions continued in Berlin between Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission and Angela Merkel of Germany. The German position is summarized in the words of German finance minister Schauble, when he said that Germany could not hand over its credit card to other countries.

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Germany is turning nationalistic in its approach to the debt crisis in Greece. This comes as Germans consider economic successes as Germany's, and failures in Europe, as the problems not of a united Europe but of these individual countries. The largest circulation German newspaper, Bild, suggested Greece sell the Acropolis to payoff creditors in the bond markets, and putting a estimate of $140 billion for this monument. A senior member of Merkel's party suggesting Greece sell off some of the Aegean islands. And a Bild poll showing a majority of Germans favor expelling Greece from the euro. There is not sufficient acknowledgement by German public opinion of the value to Germany of the export markets in Europe and the part they played in Germany's economic success.

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The ECB's executive board's proposal is for 50 billion euros ($58 billion) in bond buying each month for the next 12 months. The ECB's executive board meets on Jan 20, 2015, to discuss the proposal.

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The costs of fraud in medical care from spurious Medicare claims to kickbacks for unecessary services is estimated at $125 to 175 billion. Costs of unnecessary care from overuse to unnecessary lab tests are between $250-325 billion. The amount wasted for on treatment for preventable conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. is $25-50 billion. This number is much higher when all the complications from obesity are figured in. These amounts alone add up to $500 billion. Add to it the problems and the costs of medical errors leading to bad drug reactions or other misdiagnosed procedures which cost an estimated $75-100 billion and the the total is upto $600 billion. These amounts are not going to be tackled by computerization of medical records. The whole manner and ways in which medicine is practiced today and the manner in which the public takes care of its health would have to change for an impact to be made in these numbers.

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Europe has something that is just as bad as subprime mortgages that have troubled the US, its the bad debt of European banks to Eastern European emerging market countries. This plus the high indebtedness of companies in Western Europe is creating serious problems for the economies of western Europe. In addition to the property bubble in Ireland, the UK and Spain, Germany is facing falling demand for its exports as a result of the steep descent of the global economy, especially China. As a result of all this the EU is facing a problem of the magnitude of that faced by the US, if not worse. In much of Europe especially in Germany and the Eastern European countries what generates growth and jobs is exports. Three quarters of the cars made in Germany are exported, and many of the parts used in BMW's and VW's come from plants in the eastern european countries, some form Slovakia, Poland and from plants elsewhere in Eastern Europe. With the collapse of some Eastern European economies and serious problems in others these markets are shrinking. The same thing is happening to exports from Eastern European countries where factories there manufacturing goods for Western Europe are closing. And banks in the western European economies like UniCredit Group of Italy, Germany's Commerzbank, and Belgium's KBC Group have large loans outstanding in the eastern European countries to companies and consumers. And some of these countries have run up huge current account deficits. Bulgaria the deficit is 20% of GDP. Increasing the risk and hitting consumers in the east is that banks issued low rate mortgages and other laons in euros and swiss francs. With the Hungarian forint, Romanian leu, and other weaker currencies seeing big drops, the cost of repaying these loans has jumped. Instead of consumers being overstretched from overspending as in the USA, or facing foreclosures, these consumers are facing huge loan repayment problems from borrowing in other currencies. Morgan Stanley says more than half of the private debt in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria is in foreign currency. And customers in Eastern European countries owe foreign banks loans equal to one third of their combined GDP, according to the Bank of Internatonal Settlements. A lot of these loans could end up turning into bad debt if the economies of Eastern Europe deteriorate further as consumers there pull back, factories close and job losses mount, and currency values drop even more. This would create huge problems for Western European banks and restrict lending in Western Europe as these banks make fewer loans creating more problems for Western European economies, in the same manner as ricotcheting effects have done in the USA....