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The big difference between the US at about 1.2 million electric car sales and China at over 9 million in the last year is that companies such as BYD have found away to come up new battery technology that uses different more accessible materials. BYD's research into new batteries came up with a iron phosphate battery as shown on articles on BYD in 2024 to substitute for less available lithium and cobalt. On one of its models BYD is offering a price of $11000. This attracts a different kind of buyer than what American makers are reaching. Another plus for BYD is that while sales are stalling in the US because of battery range and lack of charging station access, BYD also sells a large number of hybrid electric cars that help urban dwellers go back to their homes in the countryside. BYD also manufactures two thirds of its parts internally producing needed savings. China is also pushing electric cars with government subsidies and government is working hand in hand with industry in a concerted effort for two decades. Compare that with US where the Biden administration was the first to start changing the way the US does business to put government industry cooperation and working together at the heart of the way of doing things. The US could learn from other nations and adapt its own industrial and modernization efforts in the world after the pandemic and as supply chains are being renewed and restructured. Every nation can learn from its peers. ...

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DW.com report by Mu Ciu shows a CATL(Contemporary Amperex Technology) plant in Arnstadt, Thuringia, in eastern Germany. It will not bridge Germany's technology gap. German and US consultants at the microeconomic level of the company and German and US economists at the macroeconomic level of the economy entirely fail to grasp the effectiveness of China's investment driven model. Of its joint partnering with European and American companies and China's single minded focus on technology access. This is why the DJT US administration has warned Europe that it is failing economically. China's macroeconomic and microeconomic model are run by the same authority by the state, and according to goals and plans (which in a socialist economy is weak at the microeconomic company level lacking the initiative and freedom of action). By combining its macreconomic framework run by the state with a micreconomic company level run by the state but on free market lines the Chinese investment driven model has dual advantages and operates at a speed that far surpasses the German and American model. It's society suffers as a consequence, but in few short decades 1990-2009/2020 this is all it could accomplish with a single focus on modernization for what was once a peasant agricultural economy. Where it lacks is in future technology access and as long as weak companies in the US and Germany partner with Chinese companies the technology access for Chinese companies give it the essential ingredient for its investment model to work, as American and European companies can waver in investment Chinese companies backed by the government will not waver in investment and have the clear advantage. DJT's approach is to give a big shock to the entire system of world trade now run by China, so that this is no longer going to work at the macroeconomic level and legislate huge investment incentives for one time depreciation and other moves to get American companies to invest. It wants Europe to do the same, including getting rid of the bureaucratic structures and regulations. German Chancellor Merz is getting the message and is acting quickly first with the trillion dollar investment plan, the meetings with Draghi and Meloni to get Italy and like minded nations on board, and internal efforts to get rid of regulations and bureaucratic structures, and building a new partnership with India to remove an error of Merkel/ Clinton+ Obama in excessive concentration and dependence on China. This requires a steady hand and steady governments, steady policy, and companies in America, Europe and India to work together for the long haul without wavering or delay, to rebuild the world economy along new lines and on a new path. ...

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Mike Pence's recent comments show that the US Capitol attacks were a traumatic event for Pence and the country. Former Vice President Pence said- "President Trump was wrong. I had no right to overturn the election and his reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day, and I know history will hold Donald Trump accountable." Pence said it was a disgrace, and it mocked decency to portray it any other way. President Biden's speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia talked about this situation that democracy faced in America, over 150 years after Abraham Lincoln made a similar speech in Independence Hall at the onset of the conflict that led to the emancipation proclamation.  Biden said- "We must never forget: We the people, are the true heirs of the American experiment that began two centuries ago." Speaking of the flame of liberty that was lit at Independence Hall Biden also said- "That sacred flame also burns now in our time, as we build an America that is prosperous, free and just." ...

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You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?”  Harris mother told her when she was growing up. Vice President Kamala Harris said last year with a sense of humor and even a folksy philosophical sense. “You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.” The way Kamala said or its deeper meaning has set this off for a thousand memes on the internet for Kamala fans. KHive refers to 2 groups of fans the earlier ones many of them women  when she was senator, and the later ones who learned about her passion for the issues relating to a better life for workers and families across these 51 states. Now there is a Kamala fervor on the internet. Harris campaign is also working itself into this fervor instinctively. Though no one may realize this not even Kamala herself there is a sense of Gandhi in this. Her grandfather and mentor was a civil servant who was raised in the Gandhian tradition of public service unmatched anywhere in the world for its dedication and determination for knowledge and for freedom. ...

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After three years o rock star popularity prime minister Trudeau's popularity has dropped so far that his party could lose the October general elections. This is after Canada's Attorney General resisted efforts by Trudeau and senior officials to let a Canadian company SNC-Lavalin avoid trial. Since then recording of a iphone call taken by the Attorney General with a top government official Mr. Wernick has created an uproar on this matter. Ms. Wilson-Raybould, the Attorney General saying in that conversation that this was going to look like nothing but political interference by the prime minister and everybody else involved in this. Nearly two thirds of Canadians now disapprove of the job Trudeau is doing according to a poll by Ipsos Public Affairs and Agnus Reid Institute.  Rock star popularity can fade quickly. In Brazil Ignacio Da Silva was popular till a crisis with state finances and the Car Wash scandal involving illegal payments led to the loss of his Workers Party in the recent elections. Mr. Trudeau had won support by supporting clean governance and giving women a say in governing. Ms. Raybould was transferred to a lower position after her unwillingness to follow government officials on the CNC Lavalin issue. Now the Liberals Party of Trudeau is trailing the rival Conservatives and Ms. Raybauld is a highly respected figure in Canada. ...

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Italy's new prime minister Mario Monti, was frank in his views about depending on austerity alone to meet the debt crisis, views also shared by President Sarkozy of France. Monti told an interviewer from the German newspaper Die Welt, before meeting German chancellor Merkel in Berlin: In the absence of specific help "a protest against Europe will develop in Italy, also against Germany, which is viewed as the ringleader of E.U. intolerance, and against the European Central Bank." He went on to say-"I cannot have success with my policies if the E.U.'s policies don't change." He pointed out that economic difficulties could drive Italy to "flee into the arms of populists."

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Thodex cryptoexchange in Turkey lost $2 billion for users who could not withdraw funds. It imploded in 2021. The founder of this cryptoexchange was sentenced for a lengthy period by Turkey's prosecutors. WSJ compares sentences in Turkey to the sentences in the US for fraud and money laundering.

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Rumsfeld talks in this interview about the conflict between the US State and Defense Departments about a post war Iraq that delayed decisions and gave time for the Iraqi insurgency to develop. Colin Powell at the State Department, and Condoleeza Rice as National Security Advisor, let Ian Bremmer continue for too long as the sole authority in Iraq operating from one of Hussein's palaces, giving the feeling of a foreign occupation force and fueling insurgency. Rumsfeld favored letting one of the Iraqi exiles provide interim leadership, wheras Powell felt the exiles did not have the legitimacy in Iraq that was needed. The result was indecision that left Bremmer in charge for too long. Asked why Rumsfeld did not fire Bremmer, he says Bremmer acted as the Presidential envoy. His criticism of Rice and Powell centers on their not letting the President decide by providing the options and the pros and the cons. He says the surge was more psychological in its impact and less significant than its made out to be, because the Anbar Awakening had already led Sunnis to move away from Al Quaeda. The insurgency came in stages, first with the Baathists and thugs from the old regime, then the foreign elements and Al Quaeda through Damascus, and then the Mohtada Sadr Shiites, it was not a single enemy or a single event. The memoir is not a defense of the Bush Presidency or decisions, but takes the kind of look at events that is reminiscent of Dean Acheson for the events of the Cold War under president Harry Truman....

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Two Syrian cities are among the oldest in the world going back to 3000 BC. They are Aleppo and Damascus. This is close to when Varanasi on the Ganges in India was settled. Aleppo is older than Damascus.  The only European city that comes close is Plovdiv, Bulgaria, says this report in The Guardian. Most of the Syrian region is populated by Syrian Sunnis about 75% and there are Christian, 10%, Shia Alawite 11%, and other minorities in Syria.  The Syrian Civil War 2011-2024 destroyed most of the old city of Aleppo. Syria has 110 miles of Mediterranean coastline, mountains along the coastline and and area inland of wheat cultivation along the Euphrates river and the Syrian desert near Iraq in the east, Turkey to the north with Kurds in that area, and Jordan in the south. The Ottoman Turks ruled from 1516 to 1918. In 1920 a French Mandate was setup in Syria till 1943. Following the Second World War Syria was an independent nation and briefly joined Egypt in the UAR United Arab Republic.  ...

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A Brooklyn, New York resident who created his own job during the pandemic. A neighbor gave him a used bike she was getting rid of. He sold it online for $400. This gave him an idea- he now pulls bikes from garages and barns all over the U.S. and restores them to new. Because of the virus related manufacturing slowdowns for bicycles, and people preferring bikes to trains demand has jumped. U.S. bicycle sales at $2.6 billion up 81% and use of city bicycles up 141% in New York city for Citibike- with single trip pass buyer at 516,000. Mr. Van Scyvoc a 33 year old Brooklyn resident collects bikes around Cleveland where his father a retired firefighter lives and takes them by pickup truck to a bike stand he has at Fort Green park in Brooklyn. There he sells bikes bought for $80 to $250 for $300 to 500. First he has to have them washed clean and then serviced in Brooklyn by an IT engineer who now repairs bikes.

 

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Hardeep Puri writes in the Indian Express that one of the biggest problems in development in India was that government programs for development just kept getting delayed, and there were leakages of funds that could never be tracked. It is the sign of a developing country that it remain perpetually a developing country when it does not find a way to overcome this situation. Most of Asia, Japan, South Korea, China has found a way out, and it is a sign of character in a country and its administration that real implementation takes place to transform a developing country into a modern country organizing and combining the inputs of land, capital, technology and human resources. Just one example is the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana to build housing in India's cities to promote quality of living. In the last 7 years Puri writes in the Indian Express that 11.2 million houses were sanctioned, 4.9 million built and the rest to be built by March 2022. Compared to 1.2 million in the prior 10 years. To do this investment jumped by about 10 times. In the US infrastructure was neglected in the last 2 decades. In India urban infrastructure was delayed by never ending delays and leakages of funds. Across a range of projects from Metro urban transport to rail, bridges and road, infrastructure was slow and wobbly in India for most of the decades since 1947. The Smart Cities Mission is being financed with an investment planned of Rupees 2 trillion or over $200 billion to change the urban landscape with people centred priorities. As Puri writes silently, non performers are being weeded out, loopholes plugged, targets set, in scrutiny and monitoring of projects all the way to the prime minister in a way that has never happened before. There is relentless focus on monitoring the missions, problems to overcome, targets and dates of completion. Bringing to life a new national character and spirit for India during the pandemic. ...

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As Britain goes to general elections in May 2015, one of the issues in the election will be new referendum on membership in the European Union promised by prime minister David Cameron. Cameron has said he will negotiate a better deal for Britain in the EU and hold a referendum by 2017. The last referendum was in 1975, in which two thirds of voters supported membership in the EU. British disapproval of the EU has increased with immigration from newer EU members since the 2008 financial crisis, and increasing unemployment. Some recent polls show 42% voting to stay in the EU, and 39% opting out, suggesting a close vote. Negotiations for better terms mean treaty change, which would be opposed by France. Germany's Merkel also opposes changes on the immigration rules that do not allow free movement of labor. Other EU leaders see Cameron's moves on the EU being an effort to counter the UK Independence Party's push for EU exit, as the UKIP could draw Conservative right wing voters in the 2015 general election. ...

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US trade deficit of $46 billion with India and DJT call to buy oil and gas from the US, to shift away from purchases of $50 billion of oil from Russia, of 2 million barrels a day. India only imported $1 billion of oil from Russia in 2020 and this is a call from the US to India to stop financing Russia's increasing air attacks on Ukraine in August 2025. For India this oil came at $70 a barrel when prices were around $90-$100 a barrel in 2022-2024. In 2025 oil prices are at $60 a barrel, and even if prices increase to $70 a barrel India can make the shift. US and Germany, the EU, Britain which seek negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will continue to pressure India in 2025. Russia could shift some of the oil to other places but the huge demand from a country India's size will not then be seen as a factor in prolonging the war. India needs to think ahead for the next 20 years and its goal of modernization by 2047 like China has done in 2000-2020. And not get into a nationalistic mode that may not be in the best interests of the Indian people seeing that this may serve the interests of all nations including Russia to phase out this European war. ...

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Lawyers Buchheit and and Gulati help Greece design a legal agreement that writes in a new collective action clause. The collective action clause ensures a 95% participation for the bond restructuring deal Greece is doing in March 2012 to cut its debt to sustainable levels. A similiar deal could be designed for Portugal says Mitu Gulati, a law professor at Duke University. Because Greece's bonds are written under Greek law, writing in a new collective action clause is a legal mechanism for achieving a meaningful debt reduction and bond restructuring deal- this is something Gulati and Buchheit figured out because of their expertise in this field. A joint paper by Buchheit and Gulati in 2010, first explored the way in which private bondholders of Greek bonds who reject a bond debt restructuring could be forced to accept the same losses as other investors who accepted the deal. They are now advisors to the government of Greece. In early 2011 there was serious discussion that the Brady Bonds debt restructuring for Latin American debt of Argentina, Mexico and Brazil of the 1980's, under which private investors traded in their old bonds for new bonds with longer duration at reduced interest rates and lower value- reflecting voluntary losses accepted by bondholders- was the approach needed for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and other eurozone countries. Then U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady took the lead- in Landon Thomas Jr., NYT, 11/30/2010. Bondholders held out throughout this period, with Charles Dallara, one of the architects of the Brady bonds restructuring, hired by European banks to negotiate on their behalf. It was only when German Chancellor Merkel delivered an ultimatum by telling Dallara "this is the last offer," during a late night meeting on Oct. 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, was an agreement reached on serious debt reduction- in Walker, Forelle, Meichtry, WSJ, 12/30/2011. The long delay meant a worsening crisis in Greece and the rest of the eurozone. ...

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Carrie Lam, Chief Secretary for Administration of Hong Kong SAR government from 2012-2017, led the negotiations on Beijing's side with the Hong Kong movement for more autonomy. She did not back down in the negotiations and is favored by Beijing over the former Financial Secretary Mr. Tsang. Tsang spent some years in the U.S. compared to Lam who spent some time in the UK for education. Chinese official are skeptical of Mr Tsang because he said in the past that more legitimacy for Beijing could be gained with further autonomy for Hong Kong.  Tsang is supported by the autonomy movement in the election to be decided by the 1200 member election committee, and Ms. Lam by pro-Beijing members. Tsang also has good relations with the Chinese government and has higher popularity with the public, but his early years in the U.S. are paradoxically making Chinese officials skeptical, even though Ms. Lam's husband and two sons are British citizens.

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How seriously are the Border Crossing encounters with migrants being taken by the Biden administration compared to the Trump administration, or earlier administrations Republican and Democrats. Pew Research Center provides these 7 charts and other data. In 2021 border crossing encounters with migrants were shown as 1.6 million. Of this 27% were repeat crossings a number much lower in previous years. It had fallen to just 400,000 in 2020 as the policy of expulsion put in place by the Trump administration was continued by the Biden administration. In 2019 the border crossing encounters with migrants after three years of the Border Wall construction under president Trump were 851,000. The Biden adminstration in 2021 had 52% expulsions compared to Trump administration 66% in April 2020 after invoking public health Title 42 which Biden continued. About 33% said the Trump administration was doing a good or somewhat good job in 2019 compared to 29% for Biden in 2021. But a much lower percentage of Republicans were saying Trump was doing a bad job than the 56% of Democrats saying that for Biden today. The previous surge in 2021 was mainly from Guatemala and Central America. The current surge is from about 400,000 migrants from Venezuela where expulsion does not work as well because the US has cut off relations with the government of Mr. Maduro in Venezuela, There are 7.1 million refugees from that country in Latin America. The Trump administration would have faced similar problems with the Venezuelan surge that the Biden administration is facing. The largest jump in 2021 is in Yuma Arizona 12 fold, two fold in Tucson and San Diego, three fold in El Paso, the Del Rio and Rio Grande up 5 times.    ...

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Deschamps was captain of the French team that won the World Cup in 1998, and coach for the French team that won the World Cup 4 years ago. The 54 year old Didier Deschamps was made the coach of the national team in 2012. FR24 looks at his style and experience coaching the national team. 

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Effects of the two storms in Florida and North Carolina reduced job growth in October. Overall the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. Job growth and the unemployment come from 2 different surveys one from households for the unemployment rate and one from employers by the Labor Department for job growth.  The hurricanes and weather events meant people were still being paid but could not get to jobs during the month of October, the estimate of this number was 512,000 in 2024. In 2016 and 2018 with hurricanes this number was about 250,000 in each year. 512,000 in 2024 is double the size from 8 years earlier in 2016, it shows that this could reach double this or 1 million jobs affected if another 4 years are lost pretending that climate change is "a scam" or that it was not serious, doing nothing and reversing direction. On average over 20 years the loss of jobs from hurricanes is about 69,000, excluding 2016 and 2018 it would be about 45,000. This shows that there are effects that are growing from climate change on jobs at an accelerated pace, another economic warning sign for the need for climate change action. ...

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US president's sweeping powers to use tariffs as a tool for policy when American people's jobs, communities, health, is threatened by fentanyl and concentration of manufacturing jobs in China, unfair trade by EU and Japan, is the issue presented to the US Supreme Court. The US president presented it in this way- tariffs as a foreign policy tool, not a way to impose economic policy in the form of a tax on American importers or buyers which is the power allocated to Congress by the US Constitution. Justices who mentioned these powers called them sweeping powers but would not say the word fentanyl or look back at the recalcitrant behaviour of Asian nations Japan and China when it comes to unfari trading practices, where the US could literally negotiate forever and get no result, or to the enormous concentration of manufacturing power and supply channels in China that not only ships out American jobs but leaves Americans at the mercy of foreign powers for cost of living. Nowhere was this more evident as during covid years and now in rare earths export restrictions from China. The Justices assumed it was just alright to ignore this or leave it unsaid.  The cost to American buyers is small because most of the tariffs are borne by foreign suppliers in China, Japan and Germany, who as in the case of automobiles unfairly benefitted for decades and are now bearing most of the cost of tariffs. The large business in the US have increased their margins so much in the 2020-2024 period that they are now bearing some of the cost of the tariffs, as reported in WSJ. So that inflation in the US is at 3.0 % in the US less than anticipated, when average tariffs are at about 10% overall, not what the headlines say of 15-20% because of the product exceptions made in the tariffs for each nation. Justice Roberts may be right when he says more care should be exercized in the placing of a tariff, but even Roberts and Justices Barrett, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and others know that the US has used this as a last resort, as a policy tool to protect the American people. Sweeping powers need care and caution as Justice Roberts stated- “power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time. It does seem like that’s a major authority."   ...

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Nirmala Sitharaman, the Finance Minister, says India's approach to pandemic aid appears to be the right one because it avoided handouts that have in the form of large stimulus packages in the US and Germany, created high inflation. India's focus was on providing food for weaker members of society during the pandemic.  The basic idea behind the approach was to conserve capital, and use increased GST tax revenues in such a way that capital could be concentrated where it would deliver the most in projects that would take India forward in infrastructure and development for 2042. This is essentially the approach taken by first, Japan, then South Korea, then China, in becoming advanced industrial nations, increased revenues and capital concentrated on projects that would deliver in terms of industrial progress such as infrastructure, today in climate change renewable energy, and other actions. Gati Shakti integrates this into a Master Plan for the country for 2042. ...

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Fed's Jay Powell says about his interest rate increases of five percentage points at consecutive meetings since March 2022- "We've seen the beginnings of disinflation without any real costs in the labor market. That is really a good thing." Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the 9 year period of most growth cycles in the US economy since 1980 and says a soft landing could be followed by growth till about 2030. Business investment led to 2.4% growth in the second quarter 2023. More investment is in the pipeline under the Biden economic plan. As inflation is going down to about 3% from 9% at its peak in 2022 the US is set for economic growth that would help it grow in a way that would enable America to meet the challenges of today in climate change, worker incomes and the cost of living, and in need to rebuild the nation's infrastructure in the way it was done in the years after 1945 under Truman and Eisenhower.

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This leader article in The Economist refutes the notion in an article by Greg Ip in the WSJ that Britain would benefit by being self reliant. Self reliant on what it asks? Self reliant on British selves for people outside of London by limiting contacts with mainland Europe and keeping out people. It points out that it is not just a rejection of Europe but also of London, the main financial centre of Europe before Brexit. It refutes the notion that the decline in the value of British currency, the Pound, would automatically lead to higher exports by saying that this was always one of the "inanities of Brexit"- that with supply chains spread out in many countries Britain which was integrated into the supply chain in Europe could suddenly integrate into supply chains far away in Asia. It predicts pain from Brexit, and sees the "hard Brexit" as a bad choice for Britain, as announced by Theresa May in October 2016 and planned for 2017.

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Google has come out firmly on the side of parents struggling to deal with schooling at home for children, with social distancing during the pandemic, as it supports working from home all the way till summer of 2021. For 200,000 full time and contract Google employees is sure to offer some relief.  Sundar Pichai the Alphabet CEO made the decision after a debate in Google Leads a small group of executives at the company.  Mr. Pichai told staff " I hope this will offer the flexibility you need to balance work with taking care of yourselves and your loved ones over the next 12 months."  He was especially concerned about parents trying to tackle schooling of children. The surge of the pandemic in California where Google is located is likely to have convinced Google executives that this was the right step, with no vaccine in sight, and the possibility of a second wave after this one. Remote work has also proved to be effective in the software industry, creating this option. ...

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It is the Tories (Conservatives) party that made immigration an issue for the last decade. It was immigration that was one of the main issues keeping the Tories in power for the last decade. It is a surprise then that the Tories have a dismal failure in restricting immigration by 2024, going into the 2024 general election and expecting large losses of seats in parliament. It also means Tories have taken Britain out of the European Union on an issue such as immigration, heedless of the negative effects on the British economy and growth after misrepresenting it. Boris Johnson made the remark on July 2, 2019 that after Brexit "we will still have whey for our Mar's bars," as if Britain could go on as before. Worse the Tories under Johnson/Sunak misrepresented issues such as immigration in their advertising for Brexit. It is the story of how a small minority were able to misrepresent issues for staying in power regardless of the consequences. Today most Britons support rejoining the European Union. ...

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Greg Ip in the WSJ says India is shifting towards  becoming an important partner with the US and the European Union in trade under the Modi government. This report reflects the situation upto 2021 and the changes in Indian and American perceptions during the pandemic. It does not reflect the rapidly evolving situation under president Biden.US president Biden and Jake Sullivan National Security Advisor see rapidly expanding US trade and investment in India. The recent Raisina Dialogue  brings together 26 countries- named after Raisina Hill in New Delhi where India's administration is located- in dialogue with Indian leaders. Finance Minister Sitharaman in an interview at Raisina Dialogue stated that Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, was with her during a G-20 meeting, and Yellen called for friendshoring- foreign investment in democracies that respect the rule of law and provide the right conditions for investment. The right conditions are now being created in India, including infrastructure and logistics, trade practices, and assistance to foreign companies, to invest in Indian manufacturing. The conditions are being created for shifting significant number of manufacturing facilities to India in a complete redesign of the supply chain. A look at the period 1950-2015 in US-EU India relations says little of the newly evolving situation in trade in the way that looking at the US-EU China relations 1950-1990 during the Cold War would tell one little about how that relationship evolved in trade after 1990 in the 1990-2019 period for massive trade with China. The pandemic and the inflation from existing supply chain bottlenecks has led to a realization in US-EU that the existing concentration of manufacturing in one country  was a mistake and is a serious problem that needs correction.  This means an acceleration in the effort to build rapidly over the next 5-10 years a strong US-EU manufacturing presence in India for advanced technologies. India under prime minister Modi is creating the infrastructure and logistics for this to happen with large domestic investment, the help of Denmark's Maersk in port logistics, and from other countries.  Fo India manufacturing and infrastructure building is the only way to create the jobs needed to meet the aspirations of its young population. For the US-EU the redesign of the supply chain is the highest priority to cut inflation, remove potential bottlenecks, and provide a stable supply chain.    ...