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Some clues to why president Biden is not getting the credit for work done to better people's lives is the workplace. Workplace dissatisfaction measured in the Gallup 2023 Workplace Report shows the number of workers stressed, disengaged, or angry, is rising. A BambooHR analysis of data from 57000 workers shows job satisfaction scores have dropped to the lowest level since 2020, dropping 10% in 2023. Some of the causes- the unsettled state of the workday, being micromaanaged back to the office, even as they realize the isolating nature of remote work or hybrid work, inflation erasing any gains in wages, and a cooling job market leaving some stuck in same roles. New workers were hired in 2022-2023 and many have still to find fulfilling roles. Employers focused on hiring and less time was spent on situating new employees well. This is happening even as workers have more control where they work. Other causes are a backlash to employers efforts to get all employees back to the office. Another issue nearly a thrid of workers do not work in the same place as their bosses at large companies, up from 23% in 2020, accroding to an ADP survey. This means workers have long distance relationships with bosses and co-workers, weakening ties. In 2023 it is a very different workplace than before the pandemic. It may also offer some clues to why workers are skeptical about the work done by the Biden administration looking at their own lives after the pandemic even though major efforts are being made by president Biden in cost of living, in wages, support for labor and unions, and in rebuilding infrastructure and public services. ...

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The prospect for increased consumer spending in China are not as strong as in the US. The increasing cost of living and the general uncertainty following the pandemic and release from covid restrictions mean that the average Chinese person is less inclined to spend. Savings pool is also smaller estimated at savings accumulated of $425 million during the pandemic years 2020-2022 compared to the US savings accumulation of $2.3 trillion in 2020 to 2021. US public also received cash payments which supported spending, and China by comparison had no cash payments.

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The US, Belgium and Italy oppose use of Russian assets in Belgium of $200 billion as collateral for loans to Ukraine. Ukraine is facing budget shortfall of $135 billion for the next 2 years 2026-2027. TheUk supports it use, and Germany and France are leaning in this direction with the EU's Leyen. US intention is to do this so that a peace settlement can be reached to end the war in Ukraine. Lack of trust between Western Europe and Russia threatens a breakdown in the efforts of the US for peaceful end to the war, leading instead of a settlement to increase in defense and armed forces of Germany and France at this point in December 2025.

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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Walter Mead of WSJ offers this view- expect more action from DJT in 2026 not less, than 2025. The president took the US Supreme Court's decision in stride, noting that it lets him do the same thing on tariffs- charge tariffs on countries doing unfair trade with the US- with other tools in trade legislation, just not IIEP rules. On the practical side every country wants to keep its trade agreement with the US said the president- Britain, Japan, South Korea, Germany, China, India. China and India have increased exports in 2025 even with tariffs rules that allow some exemptions. Large trading nations do not want the uncertainty that comes with renegotiating agreements arrived at with much difficulty with the US. This is not mentioned much in the media such as WSJ and NYT which instead  focus on the tariff revenue already collected of $130 billion and its use or refunding. What is relevant is that the purpose of splitting powers beteen the executive branch and the Supreme Court and Congress is preceded to a great extent by the public's ideas about what is fair, of rights of the US to fair trade, and preventing the deindustrialization of US and Europe. Which is why the Supreme Court has tried to tread warily on issue of illegal migrants by millions entering the country, and is trying to tread warily on issue of rebuilding American industry and infrastructure using tariffs to reduce concentration in China and act to restore a fair trading system for the US and the world. ...

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The average forecast for the S&P 500 U.S. stock market is for a 4.1% gain in 2014 for nine analysts surveyed- a much more cautious outlook after 27% gains in 2013. The S&P 500 closed at 1804 in the final week of November 2013.

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Germany's Bundestag parliament vote eases constitutional "debt brake" March 2025. CDU's Merz and the SPD join with Greens to provide the two thirds majority to remove a constitutional debt brake put in in the Merkel years. Germany's dilapidated infrastructure from rail to other transport and public facilities, to poor childcare are a sign of how the Merkel debt brake has hurt the German economy. Four years of the Greens SPD coalition government of Scholz were wasted when the SPD and Greens wanted investment in infrastructure starting in 2021 but included Lindner of the super cautious Free Democrats as Finance Minister who opposed spending and vetoed it every step of the way. The results can be seen in Frankfurt and other cities and in the underinvestment in Deutsche Bahn rail and all over the country. Merz of the CDU and the SPD and Greens finally fix this problem starting with removing the debt brake.  What happened to Lindner and Free Democrats? They did not make the threshold of 5% for representation in the German parliament, the Bundestag in Berlin. Lindner resigned for his failure. ...

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Calmcations, off the track and cooler Travel- travel are trends in 2025. Calmcations as people look for less noise and more quiet. Cooler destinations are ones in northern Europe, in Scandinavia and Finland where summer temperatures are in the 20's compared to the heat in southern European locations.

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Brazil's ever increasing production of soyabeans and investments in Brazil by China and US's Cargill ADM result in a oversupply of soyabeans in world's markets leading to lower prices for American farmers. 70% of soyabeans imports by China were from Brazil in 2024 and Cofco state owned agricultural company in China is building a large port terminal on Brazil's coast to handle soyabeans and other exports. Trade tensions with the US mean there are no written agreements farmers can count on for soyabean exports to China. China purchased 13 million metric tons from Argentina last month and committed to buying 25 million metric tons in 2026-2028. Argentina lifted its 26% export tax for the first $7 billion in agricultural exports to bolster it's peso recently. US is turning to other markets in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Europe to make up for volume lost to Brazil. For September and October there is a 45% increase in US exports in 2025 resulting from these non-Chinese buyers. No mention is made of India, yet India could in future be a significant buyer of soyabeans because of thenutritional value of soyabeans in an anti-cancer diet and the high protein content which would make Indian diets healthier. In agriculture farmers are not the ones who develop new tastes and new trends in new markets, yet this effort should be part of farmer's outreach to other nations and other cultural food habits with shifts to healthy nutrition. ...

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WSJ says GM straddles the past and the future. GM's plans to invest $11-13 billion each year for new electric vehicles. GM also plant to cut costs by $2 billion to maintain profit margins as car prices drop from higher levels. GM US largest automaker profit in 2022 kept up the pace of 2021 by remaining at over $14 billion. As car sales decline in 2023 GM plans to offer sales incentives and make up for this by cutting costs in corporate and other overhead.

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Inflation is over 2% in Japan for the 22nd month. Decline in working age population by the 1990's, the shift of jobs and factories overseas, and the banking crisis all led to deflation in the Japanese economy. By 1998 inflation was setting in and has continued for two decades to 2022. This could happen in China as it's economy faces similar problems which is why linear projections from the last 10 years for China are misleading and erroneous, just as linear projections for India from the previous decade's growth were misleading and erroneous after 2014. The second decade after 2024 is likely to lead to major investments in infrastructure leading to India joining the developed nations.

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Guardian editorial on Blair Essay 2026- it is from 1999,  and it won't work in 2026 as problems are different now.

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OPEC and Russian oil producers are planning to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels a day for each month through 2022. Demand is increasing with economic recovery and this will lead to higher oil prices. Oil prices are now $80 a barrel in October 2021. Shortages of natural gas and high prices are leading power generation companies to use oil in place of natural gas. This will increase demand for oil by 500,000 barrels a day. Oil export revenue was cut in half to $119 billion for Saudi Arabia in 2020 and Saudis want to see higher prices to make up for lost revenue. OPEC + that includes Russia decided to end a price war during the Trump administration and this time have designed a strategy that will gradually push up prices. In recent years shale oil producers in the US quickly responded to higher prices of oil and increased production. After the pandemic in March 2020 American shale oil producers in 2021 are not increasing production. This gives OPEC+ better ability to set oil prices at higher levels. ...

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Higher savings, covid assistance checks, and cheap credit led to higher consumer spending in the second half of 2020. This lasted through the higher inflation in 2022 when consumer spending outpaced inflation by two percentage points. The share of monthly income set aside for savings dropped from a high in April 2020, to 7.5% in December 2021, to 3.4% in December 2022. This is rapidly reversing with increase in mortgage rates and interest rates by the Fed to 4.75%, home and car sales the lowest in a decade. Inflation is at 5% year over year and wages up 4.6% in December year over year. The labor market is tight with about 10 million unfilled jobs and unemployment at 3.4%. Tech and other companies that overly expanded during the pandemic and are under antitrust oversight are laying off some employees. A recession is possible but this depends on how Jay Powell at the Fed reads the employment situation so that it brings down inflation but not so much that it hurts American workers. ...

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Ford profit for 2025 expected at $7- 8.5 billion. Ford estimate for Tariffs cost in 2025 on profit before interest and taxes is about $1.5 billion. As Ford makes most of its cars and trucks in the US it is less impacted by the Tariffs on foreign cars entering the US. GM estimate of cost of Tariffs is at $4 -5 billion.

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Starmer in Britain, Macron in France and Merz in Germany all have low poll ratings in 2026.

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Inflation is receding as an issue in the 2024 elections as the CPI index dropped below 3% in July as reported by the Labor Department. It was 2.9% lowest since 2021. Greg Ip says when Trump is saying bacon costs 5 times more now he needs to find another supermarket. That is the joke as Trump is really getting ripped off. Ip says bacon prices are up 18% since 2020 when Biden took office. Trump says at rallies grocery prices are up 70%, Ip says fact correction -up 21% since January 2021 not 70%. Trump says gas prices are $5.00 a gallon. Fact correction- gas prices are $3.75 a gallon and falling, says Ip. Trump wildly exaggerates. Trump says he will cut energy and electricity prices by 50% in 12-18 months. His answer "Drill Baby Drill." Experts cited by Greg Ip say even if new offshore and onshore leases are given, increase in supply is marginal and years away. Gas prices are determined by the world price determined by OPEC and Russia, says Ip.  Trump will increase inflation says this report because of tariffs he plans of 60% on imports from China and 10% from other places. That would increase inflation by 1.4 to 1.7% say analysts. Greg Ip of WSJ offers more clues. Inflation linked bonds see inflation dropping to 2.2% in 2025 instead of 2.6% predicted earlier. Jerome Powell at the US central bank the Fed and president Biden hav done their job well and are not letting up, continue to work on it diligently every day. ...

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First month of 2026 shows upturn for Britain's economy and $31 billion monthly budget surplus at Treasury. This is good news for Reeves and Keir Starmer as they face Manchester by election on Feb 24, 2026, first of local elections after the Mandelson episode. Unemployment is at 5.3% and inflation has fallen to 3% for the British economy in January 2026.

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India Canada nuclear deal 2026. India to build portable nuclear reactors. India Canada trade to double to $50 billion by 2030. Canada's leader Carney visit to India 2026 results in new agreements on trade and cooperation. This follows India's trade deals with Germany, and with the European Union. It is a rapidly evolving trade landscape in 2026.