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Egyptian soccer riots at Port Said and the ineptitude of the police forces on the scene further damages the credibility of the military council. Vigorous debate in the newly elected parliament and efforts by the Muslim Brotherhood to wrest the drafting of the new constitution away from the military.

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This is an interview with Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze about the international trade and economic issues brought about by globalization. The rapid emergence of China in manufacturing and overcapacity in steel has led to action on steel tariffs by president Trump. Tooze is typical of opinion that sees action by Trump not as limited action to level the playing field  as proposed by Trade Representative for the U.S., Robert Lighthizer, but as reckless move on trade.  Lyrarc.com shows articles from the WSJ and NYT showing how opinion got to this point in the U.S., on Robert Lighthizer's views that the U.S. was not facing a level playing field, and  on how trade has hurt communities across the U.S. a long distance away from Silicon Valley. President Trump's views reflect a different perspective that says the U.S. has to balance the favorable situation obtained by China and the European Union through moves of its own to protect U.S. interests. Political commentary that the U.S. was starting a trade war is not supported by the facts showing China's response as muted and a willingness by China to negotiate a balanced trading relationship as its trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow. The trade surplus is so large that the Trump moves do not tell the real story. They are likely to be overshadowed by the increasing value of the U.S. dollar leading to a continued favorable situation for Chinese exports and a larger trade surplus in 2018, regardless of Mr. Trump's action.  Trump's moves are more significant in other areas- limiting China's access to advanced technologies, with the European Union also taking the same action. This is now the new field of competition for the major world economies. ...

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Spiegel Online's interview with Emmanuel Macron, on the TGV 8434 train from Bordeaux to Paris. He is joined by Mrs. Macron. Macron says he is aware that he does not have a bloc of core support like Ms. Le Pen, yet he says this means he will try that much harder for voters on the right and the left. He says their is no political renewal in the political class in France and that it remains closed. He says particular attention must be paid to rural France outside big cities like Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille and Paris, where people have had a different encounter with globalization. On the European Union he sees the need to revitalize it by having a closer union focussed on countries that are interested in this. He sees the need for a joint finance minister and permanent head of Euro Group. This might be a smaller EU without countries such as Britain, and others who are not interested in a closer union. He does not agree with the idea that any member state of the EU can stop other member states from proceeding. Macron does not believe in moving to the right as in the Dutch election because he says people are "not idiots" and in France this has not worked for Nicholas Sarkozy, which has some truth to it as authenticity (and humility) matters to French voters. A personal approach worked for Fillon early on till the scandal over payments he received. Macron brings to this personal approach and relative youthfulness, his sense that he must appeal to all segments, rural and urban, educated and less educated, and at the same time be true to core values such as preserving the European Union, and authenticity in terms of views on Algeria. He also says he is aware he faces risks but that this is something he believes in deeply.   Macron has not hesitated to express his views on topics such as Algeria, calling it a crime against humanity, and later elaborating on what he meant. Macron says his movement En Marche is different in style and manner from the closed nature of French politics. He believes in transparency, term limits, and removing conflicts of interest in French politics, as a way to make a fresh start. The first round of voting is on April 23, 2017, followed by a second round of voting between two candidates.  ...

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This editorial in the WSJ after the U.S. presidential election is critical of extreme positions on immigration in the Republican party. It reminds readers that George W. Bush won 40% of the Hispanic vote with some passable Spanish and a friendly attitude on immigration, Romney managed only 29%. It says supporting immigration is a natural position for Republicans because most immigrants are culturally conservative and hard working. It call deportation in large numbers morally wrong and not workable. It also comes as immigration from Mexico is down significantly and many Hispanics are returning to Mexico. Hispanics suffered from the high unemployment in the U.S. following the 2008 crisis making it less attractive to come to the U.S. Growth is also increasing in Mexico with a large middle class and a falling birth rate.

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A WSJ/NBC poll in April 2017 shows about three quarters of Americans disapprove of Congress's job performance, up 12 percentage points since Feb, and one fifth approve- down nine percentage points. Congress has had a low rating in the 20% point range since 2011. Speaker Ryan is viewed negatively by 40%, compared to 22% having a positive view.

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The Cruz campaign depended on its success in Iowa on a well organized grassroots campaign, and the large turnout of evangelicals estimated at about 62 percent. The record turnout of about 185,000 for the Republican caucuses showed the depth of participation in this election. About 46% of the voter turnout was from Republicans participating for the first time. Trump's poor grassroots organization, missteps including controversial statements by Trump denigrating women- leading to him opting out of the last Republican debate raising doubts about his candidacy- combined to put Trump struggling for second place, with Rubio finishing only one percentage point behind. Cruz had 28%, Trump 24% and Rubio 23%. One of the results of this election is the poor performance of governors Jeb Bush, Christie and Kasich, who combined polled less votes than a neurosurgeon Carson. The anti-establishment fervour was evident with the support for Cruz, Trump and Carson of about two thirds of the vote, reflecting anti-establishment views. Cruz's win was remarkable, say analysts, considering his opposition to special interest lobbies, including the ethanol lobby in Iowa supported by Governor Branstad. It was also remarkable because of the months of media coverage for Trump's statements and exaggerations, and the tacit support for Trump from the establishment Republican party, including Senator Grassley of Iowa and Governor Branstad. Cruz now heads on to the other states, including the six southern states voting on March 1, where he will be favored, with a well financed campaign using grassroots contributions....

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U.S. president Trump pulls back from a threat to pull out of NAFTA trade agreement after calls from U.S. business, and calls from the leaders of Mexico and Canada. Mexico said the threat would hurt constructive negotiations, Mr. Trudeau told Trump it would hurt jobs on both sides of the border. Canada is facing headwinds for growth as business is reluctant to invest under the uncertainty for NAFTA. U.S. businesses lobbied heavily including the American Chamber of Commerce. Trump administration aides say they had used this as an effort to get Congress to act- delays resulting from a 90 day rule and from negotiations not to start till Congress approves of the new trade representative Mr. Lighthizer. Helping the situation was the effort by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross showing Trump the states that had voted for Trump that would lose jobs, and that nothing was to be gained from the action of pulling out when constructive negotiations were possible- and when Mexico and Canada were eager to start negotiations to reach a new agreement. Mexico is also eager to renegotiate NAFTA because president Nieto faces a strong competitor from the left parties in coming national elections. ...

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The New York Times reminds readers that Newt Gingrich- who criticized Romney's record at Bain Capital- was himself on the advisory board of private equity firm Forstmann Little. This editorial describes Santorum, Romney and Gingrich as corporate candidates who had close ties to private equity or lobbying firms.

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This report in the Guardian says president Macron's party along with its small ally MoDem could win as many as three fourths of the 577 seats in parliament in the June 2017 election, or about 400-445 seats. The election showed a low turnout of 49%, with abstention highest among supporters of Marie Le Pen of the National Front on the extreme right and Le Melenchon on the extreme left.  A big loser is the Socialist Party which this report estimates losing about 200 seats. Les Republicains the other main party on the right is also a loser, as this report estimates it going from 199 seats to 70-130 seats. The National Front of Marie Le Pen could end up with one seat at worst or just below the threshold of 15 seats from 118 constituencies contested. This is because it faces competition from the right and the left parties for votes in every constitutency, and is kept out by the centre right and centre left coming together. Le Melenchon's France Unbowed is expected to win about 11-23 seats.  In this election young and working class voters stayed away, voters who supported the more extreme left and right wing parties. Chancellor Merkel called it "a vote for reforms." The big majority makes it possible for Macron to get laws to change the labor market to create more jobs, and to make changes to pension and unemployment benefits, so that France's economy can get moving again.  ...

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Trump wins 32% of the vote in the South Carolina primary, to 22% for Cruz, 22% for Rubio, with Bush, Kasich and Carson winning over 7% each. Jeb Bush ended his campaign after the disastrous result in South Carolina. Trump showed support among independents and evangelical Christians. Undecided voters at the last minute voted for Rubio and Cruz.

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Peggy Noonan reflects on the deep changes taking place in America. Behind the changes is a strong feeling in the middle and working class that it has been ignored by the establishment in both parties. She points to Citizens United and says it is bad for the Republican Party, encouraging large donors and hedge fund billionaires, making the party less accountable to ordinary people. The Clinton's fundraising also raises similar questions. Trade policies depressing wages have worked against the working class, yet espoused by politicians of both parties. The young supporting Sanders, she says have seen little to show capitalism is working for them. Institutions such as Congress, the presidency, the political class, the Supreme Court, the media, are all in an uncertain position, as voters lose faith in the ability of these institutions to work for them. Yet she points out that it is important that the U.S. voters choose wisely- keeping in mind the importance of electing someone who can demonstrate goodness and a sound mind- not obscuring the questions about Trump. Uncouth language, uncouth behaviours reflect sense and sensibilities, it matters a lot, Peggy Noonan tells the Republican Party and America....

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Peggy Noonan, former Special Assistant to Reagan, describes her deeply felt and painful thoughts about the choices in the general election of 2016, as the political discourse deteriorates in the country. She sees the economic distress of the white working class neglected by the elite, she sees the ugly rhetoric during 2016 in the Republican primaries, and sees the rifts and divisions in the country, turning to the old Paul Simon tune for comfort- "The Boy in the Bubble" with its lyrics .... "The way we look to a distant constellation / That's dying in a corner of the sky/ Don't cry, baby, Don't cry."

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This essay in the Economist magazine describes the voter rejection of ruling parties and their candidates in France. Two presidents and two former prime ministers from the Socialist party and the Republican Party, Hollande and Sarkozy, Valls and Fillon face rejection. And another candidate from the Republican party Juppe also has fared poorly. This leaves two outsiders LePen of the National Front, and Macron a former Economy minister in the Hollande government who launched En Marche as his own movement for moderate change alternative in 2016. The rural-urban and less educated-more educated divide which was evident in voting in the U.S. election and the Brexit referendum is now seen in France, says this essay. Research from the Economist shows National Front support highest in outlying areas of major cities. The fears of immigration, terrorism, and globalization leaving parts of the working class behind are factors in this election. Support for the European Union is also a factor as it has suffered in recent years.     ...