LyrArc Article Gist
The ruble has stabilized by April 1, 2014 following Russian intervention in the Crimea and western sanctions. It reached record lows of 37 to the dollar from a range of 29-33 rubles to the dollar since 2011. To stabilize the ruble the Bank of Russia says it spent about $24 billion in March 2014. The Russian Finance Ministry held its first auction of Treasury bonds on April 2, 2014 with yields increasing to 9% from 8% in February. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says the ministry will resume daily purchases of foreign currencies of about $100 million- stopped since March 4, 2014- to replenish its sovereign wealth fund. Bank of Russia head, Ms. Nabiullina, says consumer inflation will exceed the target of 5% and economic growth is likely to fall below 1%. The crisis come at a bad time for Russia as it has slowed economic growth when growth had already fallen sharply in 2013. Russia plans to introduce its own payments system to reduce dependence on Visa Inc., and introduce its own credit ratings system as S&P, Moody's lowered its credit ratings....

LyrArc Article Gist
The 1985 hit "Small Town" by John Mellencamp is about Seymour, Indiana. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says the city of Seymour welcomes immigrants legally here who are properly vetted. The concern is about migrants not vetted and not legally here. At a recent city council meeting Lucas attended it was decided not to go ahead with an economic development agenda. Says Lucas- “However, Seymour has changed drastically in just the past few years, and many of us are obviously concerned about the direction we are headed,” he added. New immigrant cases or migrant arrivals for Jackson county, Indiana, where Seymour is located went up to 435 in 2024 from 66 in 2021. It is at that point that the welcome center idea ran into opposition in this small town in Indiana, an hour from Indianapolis population 21,000 in Jackson County. As the town's population mix changes - it was 1% Hispanic in 1990, then 5% Hispanic in 2000- jumping in two decades of Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden to 25% Hispanic, questions besides economic about the sense of uneasiness of resident came up. Also of cultural literacy of the state of Indiana, and of the history of the state within the Union forged by Washington and Lincoln, FDR and Eisenhower, and of Wendell Wilkie of Elwood, Indiana. Unemployment rate for Jackson County is 3.3%, median income $63,000, home ownership 57%. Issues were not about the economy alone, and about how many immigrants could be absorbed and the cultural and language literacy of arriving migrants. There were issues about the perceived crime rate (metrics show traffic related offenses were up), and about drawing too much of the school's resources as English learning went up slowing learning in the schools. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says it is crowding the health care clinic downtown with immigrants. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
George Osborne of the Conservative Party on Britain's finances, with deficit at 13% of GDP in 2009 and debt expected to reach 100% of GDP in 2014, says Britain has borrowed too much and is sinking in a sea of debt. His program points to tax cuts for Britain's financial district as he says everyone is being asked to sacrifice so much. It also means cutting spending on social services and public sector wage freezes.

LyrArc Article Gist
About the collapse of two banks- Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank Fed vice chairman for financial and banking supervision, Michael Barr, had this to say at a Congressional hearing last week- "I think anytime you have a bank failure like this, bank management clearly failed, supervisors failed, and our regulatory system failed."  The rest of this report looks at changes the Fed can on its own make stricter supervision of banks over $100 billion, action the Biden administration is thinking of taking, and action by the FDIC. The Biden administration does not want to be seen supporting wealthy depositors at Silicon Valley Bank by guaranteeing uninsured deposits as it did. It took this action solely to protect the financial system so that it would not hurt working families. For this reason alone the Biden administration will seek tighter controls of mid sized banks now that the illusion that banks below $250 billion do not pose a risk to the financial system is gone. It will also seek to recover all funds used to support these failed banks from the banks and financial sector that has lobbied for so long for less regulation leading to failure of banks not once in 2009, but again in 2023. This time under the Biden administration the damage is carefully controlled so that it does not affect the American economy and working families. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
With a shortage of nurses and healthcare workers, some hospitals are dropping the vaccine mandate for healthcare workers. Shortages existed before the pandemic. The burnout for healthcare workers led to people dropping out. The lure of high pay has also led to nurses to travel to hot spots further crimping supply of workers. Recently workers who do not want ot get vaccinated have quit the industry or lost their jobs, some have left for facilities that do not follow the vaccine requirement. CDC estimates 30% of healthcare workers at 2000 hospitals in the US are unvaccinated as of September 2021. The Biden vaccine mandate would be effective for second shots by Jan. 4. A federal judge in Louisiana has ruled in Nov. questioning the president's authority for a vaccine mandate. Following that ruling HCA, AdventHealth, Tenet, Cleveland Clinic are among the hospital chains reversing earlier decisions for vaccine mandate. Other hospital chains in California Kaiser Permanante and in New York Northwell Health have kept the vaccine mandate. Kaiser had 98% staff vaccinated, with a similar situation at Northwell. Kaiser has 210,000 employees and Northwell 77,000. Utah Mountain also has 98% vaccinated.  Research on vaccine mandates suggests them to be effective. U Penn psychology research shows people are more likely to get encouraged to get vaccine than discouraged with a vaccine mandate not vaccinated working in healthcare in September will shrink considerably by January. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
When Daniel Henninger of WSJ Editorial Board says in the adjoining article/video that to get anything done with something like the current split Congress a newly elected Republican president would have to operate by executive orders and could get little done, he is referring to the stalled Ukraine aid legislation in the US Congress after passage 70-20 by bipartisan vote in the US Senate. Legislation is stalled in the 2022 newly elected US House of Representatives with a group of Republican Congressmen called the Freedom Caucus seeking to block all legislation if it does not get its way. The now famous line "dead on arrival" line of Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana for legislation passed in the Senate for Ukraine aid. Pew Research looks at the change in the House and explains. It says about 49 members of Congress are part of or aligned to this group. About 71% or 35 of 49 members have less than six years of experience which includes 9 freshmen, compared to 58% or 100 of 173 Congressmen of all other Republican members of Congress. And two thirds of Freedom Caucus are from the South compared to 46% of all other Republicans in Congress. It is striking that only three are from states such as Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania or a mere 6% for Northeast and Midwest.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ shows breakdown on federal spending hikes and cuts in the big DJT US Tax Bill. 2025 US Tax Bill renews the tax cuts put in place by Trump in his first term that expire in 2017. About $2.75 trillion in spending increases are not offset says WSJ. Briefly it has spending hikes for $2.18 trillion      DJT Tax Cuts from first term  $1.31 trillion       Increase Standard Deduction $820 billion         Deduction for businesses $797 billion         Child tax credit $1.41 trillion        Limits on Alternative Minimum Tax The goal is to promote business growth and help small business owners, parents with children, help ordinary Americans take more in take home pay during cost of living pressures for the average American. Savings come from $1.87 trillion repealing personal dependent exemption and $916 billion from capping state and local tax deductions. Added savings from repealing clean energy tax incentives and EV credits. Increasing work requirements for Medicaid saves $625 billion, tution aid cuts $346 billion, $300 billion from SNAP changes.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The increase in the Nasdaq Composite Index to 4000 by November 2013. In contrast to the period in 1999 the Nasdaq Index now has companies in the Index in a broader number of tech fields including medical technology, pharmaceuticals and consumer. Tech companies in the Index now have reliable tested products and generate significant revenues and profits. Apple has 8.02% representation in the Nasdaq Composite Index. Other companies are Microsoft with 5.15%, Google 4.80%, Amazon 2.88%, Intel 1.95%, Qualcomm 2.09%, Gilead, 1.88%, Amgen 1.42%. The Index is more diversified in 2013. B/E Aerospace and First Solar are part of the Index. About 13.5% are in Health Care technologies, including Celgene and Myriad Genetics. And 7.1% in Telecom, including SBA Communications. Priceline, Amazon are part of consumer internet companies in the Index. Tech based companies make up only 45% on the Index Composite compared to 66% in 1999, with these companies on stronger revenue and profit footing and not bid up speculatively as they were in 1999....

LyrArc Article Gist
Brazil faces a debt crisis in 2015-2016. Between 2010 and 2015 foreign debt of local governments and Brazilian firms increased from $100 billion to $250 billion, and dollar debt in local currency from 210 billion reas to 655 billion reas, according to Bank of International Settlements data. State banking institutions BNDES and Caixa Economica Federal financed 35% of loans in 2010, by 2015 this increased to 55%. Subsidized loans at 5.5% by BNDES to firms make Brazilian banking a fiscal operation, requiring additional funding. Petrobras increased debt issuance enormously during this period, and now needs government support as its debt is now one notch above junk status. Interest payments on Brazil's debt is 6% of GDP in 2014. Public sector debt is 66% of GDP, and credit to the private sector is 55% of GDP up from 25% in 2005. It will take Brazil years to recover from a huge borrowing binge.

LyrArc Article Gist
Of 20 pictures of Shinzo Abe shown in this photo gallery in the WSJ the ones by Kashiyama of Abe on his knees at Iwo Jima recovering remains from the battle in World War II, and by Numata of a safety drill with children in Chiba perfecture where he is seen seated on the ground peeking through metal bars with children, are a must see. Shinzo Abe who led Japan through the 2000-2020 period came from a politically privileged family, but went much beyond that- building relationships with leaders such as Narendra Modi in India and nurturing the India relationship in an act of immense foresight, encouraging an independent minded policy yet working with the US, and defending Japan's position in Asia yet continuing to foster the trade relationship with China and seeking better relations with Russia.  Leaders of US, EU, Germany, France, India, Russia and China, personally felt the loss of Abe in the words they chose to describe the loss. India declared a day of national mourning, showing how far Abe had carried Japan's relationship with India and the number of visits he made to India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Dutch government of prime minsiter Mark Rutte resigned on January 14, 2021, after a parliamentary report showed that 26,000 families were wrongly accused by the tax authority of claiming child allowance since 2012. 10,000 families were asked to repay the amount leading to bankruptcies, divorces. Mr. Rutte admitted that there wa a breakdown "at all levels of the state." The opposition Labour Party social affairs minister at the time in the government resigned over the affair. The parliamentary investigative committee chairman says that the problem was pervasive at all levels of the government, including civil servants, bureaucrats and judges. There was he says systematic racism as people with foreign sounding names were singled out. Experts from think tanks say there is little political cost to Rutte and  ministers from his People's Freedom and Democracy Party. New elections are to be held soon and Rutte will continue with a caretaker government. Polls show he has 30% support twice that of the next party the anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders.  The government has set aside 500 million euros in compensation, 30,000 euros for each family. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A state wide ban on single use plastic bags goes into effect in New York state March 1, 2020. This is part of a global push to get rid of single use plastic bags that pollute the environment, end up in waterways, rivers, on trees and landfills. Some clues are offered here on why store owners still used plastic bags, and why large grocery chains still use plastic. The plastic bags cost much less than paper bags. Here one small store owner says 100,000 plastic bags cost him $2000, the same number of paper bags $15,000. New York state uses 23 million single use plastic bags a year. A public education campaign is underway. New York city requires stores to charge 5 cents per paper bag, with 3 cents going to an environmental fund and 2 cents to a the local government. Astonishingly for a large city in a developed country this report shows a Moroccan immigrant saying that it is already popular in her home country Morocco where the ban on single use plastic bags has reduced litter. Americans are not used to carrying reusable bags to the grocery store in the way Germans or people in other countries are. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The old NASDAQ in 2000 cannot be compared to the new NASDAQ in 2015 because the companies in the index have changed, and the proportion of tech and health care companies has also changed. Healthcare and consumer companies are now 37% on the index compared to 18% in the NASDAQ index in 2000. Tech is a much smaller component of the NASDAQ, declining from 64% to 43%. And three companies Apple, Google and Microsoft, makeup 20% of the index, with Amazon, Facebook and Intel added making that 30% of the entire 2015 NASDAQ index. Only 3 of the top ten companies in the 2000 NASDAQ are around in 2015 NASDAQ index- Intel Corp., Microsoft, and Cisco Systems. Yahoo, Oracle, Dell, Sun, JDS, WorldCom are no longer the top 10 companies in the index as they were in 2015. The speculative momentum stocks such as Netflix and Tesla make up 0.38% and 0.33% of the NASDAQ in 2015. In healthcare part of NASDAQ 2015 companies such as Gilead Sciences and Amgen are in the top ten.

LyrArc Article Gist
Financial firms in the U.S. S&P 500 are expected to increase 4th quarter 2013 profits over prior year by 24%, according to FactSet. Increase in long term interest rates increases the spread between short term rates that banks borrow at and the long term rates at which banks lend, easing the pressures on bank's net interest margin that were present as the Fed lowered rates. Prospects of recovery and increased lending improves the prospects for banks in 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
As drops in price of steel could lead to imports into the US with paying lower tariff Trump increases tariffs on steel to 50% on May 30, 2025. Nippon Steel says it will increase its investments in US steel mills at US Steel including older mills, $7.7 billion in modernization of plants, and $2.2 billion at Mon Valley plant. Ownership of US Steel based in Pittsburgh with 14,000 workers will stay in American hands. DJT intervened to make these investments possible. Investments will keep furnaces open 10 years and give every worker a $5000 bonus. It is this type of action that has helped DJT win in Pennsylvania and win worker support.

LyrArc Article Gist
PM Modi will meditate for 3 days and nights at the Vivekananda rock in the Indian Ocean on May 30 to June 1, 2024. In 1892 Swami Vivekananda meditated on a rock in the ocean at the tip of India in Kanya Kumari, as he set India on a path to modernization for the next 100 years and beyond. Many Indians including prime minister Modi have Vivekananda's mission for India's modernization as their clear objective, and this is behind the everything the PM does including the vision of Vikshit Bharat, a developed country by 2047 on the 100th anniversary of independence. Gandhiji read all of Vivekananda's writings and his freedom struggle against British rule was based on Vivekananda's ideas for India's regeneration and renewal leading to his book Hind Swaraj in 1905. The Bhagavad Gita was translated by Swami Swarupananda, a disciple of Vivekananda, and formed the basis for Gandhiji in the freedom struggle against the British.  Europe faced colonization on the Iberian peninsula and invasions right up to Budapest and Vienna by the 14th century, India faced the same and this was followed for India and China by the expansion of the British into Asia when China and India failed to grasp early the importance of science and technology and the new ideas that happened in Europe by the 18th and 19th century. Vivekananda wanted to see science and technology and the advances of modernization brought to the people of India a process happening as India modernizes all aspects of its economy. Vivekananda was also the inspiration for Indonesia's freedom struggle by Sukarno against Dutch rule. India and Indonesia today make up the largest population in the world larger than China and Japan combined, with a common culture and heritage and are together modernizing every aspect of the life of people.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China has seen novel uses of the internet. Pinduoduo is one of them. It brings people together on the internet to socialize and shop together. Purchases are small compared to Alibaba- $324 a year on average. By  bringing people in large numbers it has brought in about 788 million users in 2020.  One of the attractions is an orchard game where people tend to their digital orchards to earn shopping vouchers and prizes such as boxes of mangoes.The founder Mr. Huang studied computer science at the University of Wisconsin- Madison where he met Chen who now runs the company. Huang's first effort as recently as 2015 was to sell lychees and fruit from their sole warehouse in Shanghai on WeChat platform. This failed when the computer systems of the website could not handle the large number of orders. Lychees then rotted at the warehouse. From that first effort he realized the way social and browsing platforms could work with shopping. To build up large number of buyers who could be served advertising he came up with subsidies to buyers that are financed from the advertising. Money from advertising is put back into the subsidies. The buyers get discount on purchases and the browsing social platform builds large number of users in a short time. In this way it has as many users as Alibaba but purchases are small.  As in these types of startups with huge valuations and fast growth no profits were made in 2020. The loss is $1.1 billion in 2020. It has put $13 billion of the ad revenues into subsidizing the products on the site. Investors have given the company $6 billion for an agriculture program to sell fresh food and produce.  The Chinese government sees the company subsidies as having an effect of distorting the market prices. Regulators have fined the company for its practices. The company's working culture has some aspects that come under criticism with deaths of two employees.  This offers a glimpse of China's internet culture. How much of it is real constructive development of the internet is always a question. Is investor capital productively invested is also a question. Like Japan in the late 1980's few questions are asked by investors about productive uses of capital. As growth slows as it did in Japan by 2000 a lot of these questions are likely to come back.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mike Pence on DJT and the Republican Party in 2025. Mike Pence puts a score on the First 100 Days of the DJT administration. The WINS- The Border- Mike Pence says border crossings are down. Crossings were 140,000 in March 2024 under Biden, a year later they were 4000 or 3% of the previous crossings. A video of gangs was shown at the DJT rally in Warren, Michigan, the Linken Riley Act and other efforts to put spotlight on victims of crime- this is doing what even legislation would take time to produce results, putting into effect a democratic mandate and the rule of law, this is not arbitrary or by force. US military capabilities- Mike Pence points to the attention to defense, yet makes no mention of the US Navy. How can the US build when it has stopped building ships to the point that it takes 6-7 years to build simple frigates in the US by European companies, when 55% of shipbuilding is done in China with ships built in 1-2 years. How is the US without restoring its industrial base going to build its Navy? This is a question Mike Pence, the Conservatives in the Republican Party have to answer. Or if they do not take on this question are they using a playbook that is obsolete, was obsolete for a decade, and is now dangerous as if this opportunity to rebuild is not taken USA may lose its leadership in the world. Foreign Investment coupled with US and US Government investment- Mike Pence and Conservatives in the Republican Party, Wall Street interests say the US is losing foreign investment through its tariffs program, and faults it for targeting Europe, Canada, India, America's allies. DJT includes these countries because it makes it easier to come to an agreement with China that offers to abide by the original rules of fair trade when it is not singled out. It is to convey beyond a doubt to China that the US intends to play fair and expects the same from China as one of China's friends throughout its struggle with British and Japanese imperialism and colonialism. In this Wall Street fails to understand what happened to China, the history of Gen. Joe Stilwell in China in fighting the Japanese in China 1920-1945 A fact check shows Mike Pence and Wall Street are not right, foreign investment as shown on the White House site is about $5 trillion in commitments, it includes a commitment by Korean, Japanese and European, America's own companies to invest in American manpower and jobs, in American communities across 51 states.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The 2014 budget for Spain is free of the strong austerity measures, cuts in spending, and tax increases, of earlier budgets. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2014, after 1.3% decline in 2013. The unemployment rate is set to decline from 27% high in first quarter of 2013, to 25.9% in 2014. Savings of $800 million euros will come from changes in the pension system and civil servants face a freeze in salaries for the fourth year. The premium over German government bonds for Spain's government bonds is now less than that of government bonds of Italy. Cost of financing Spain's debt is projected to decline by 5.2% to 36.6 billion euros, according to Treasury minister Montero. The EU with the backing of the IMF has considered the high unemployment in Spain in its decision to relax deficit targets. This has given Spain an opportunity to clean up its accounts without further damage to the economy. Spain's deficit will now decline to 6.5% in 2013 from a deficit of 6.8% in 2012. The target for the deficit is set at 5.8% for 2014. Credit is still tight and consumer spending weak, major concerns for the government- in addition to the need for creating jobs- of prime minister Rajoy....

LyrArc Article Gist
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says in a new report that the cost of renewable energy production in India in 2020 is the lowest of 8 countries, including China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, U.S. It also points out that India has lowered the cost of solar energy faster than any other country since 2017- by 80% for the period 2010-2018. Solar energy for India in 2018 cost 27% lower than in 2017. Major achievements have been made in solar energy and are continuing with bold targets. In 2020 solar makes up 36% of total energy capacity, with production at 136 gigawatts. In India the conditions with high degree of sunlight in most parts of the country, and the technology cost reductions, lower cost of land and labor, help bring down the cost of solar energy every year. The bold targets and action taken are symbolic of the new efforts in India. The early efforts in India are described as overcoming the hurdle of preconceived notions that electricity shortages had to be accepted as a way of life. In Gujarat the first efforts over 15 years ago were taken by rejecting the idea that electricity could not be made widely and freely available. To do this policy had to be set by starting with first a clean slate and then with a clean heart say pioneers in India's early gains. A clean heart because of how desperately people needed electricity. And a clean slate because how desperately people needed to start from scratch with a new structure and new way of doing things set in place. As Vivekananda put it over 100 years ago "This I have seen in life. One who is overcautious about himself falls into dangers at every step. he who is afraid of losing honor and respect gets only disgrace. He who is always afraid of loss always loses." By taking bold action, making small experiments then setting bold targets and setting structures in place to execute manned with resources, India has achieved 4G in all parts of the country, and is doing the same for renewable energy to make electricity widely available in all parts of the country. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Reaganomics, trickle down economics, it is clear don't work. James Mackintosh says in WSJ, the latest version of Reaganomics, in the form of the LIz Truss budget in September 2022 with cuts in corporate taxes, no relief for vulnerable populations in the cost of living crisis as in all other major European countries and in the US, is already getting a bad reception in financial markets with the tumbling of the British pound.Times have changed there is nothing to be gained in its approach as there are no trade unions strangling growth as in Thatcher's time that need to be restrained, and not that much red tape to increase business flexibility. Most of the privatization has already been done and some of the state run companies are operating much better today than privatized companies handling water and other services.   Instead the problem is one of much needed investment in infrastructure and public services, and social protections after the pandemic. Businesses are not being crippled by high corporate taxes. Instead the opposite is the case, with windfall profits, so that the opposite approach taken by president Biden to use the higher tax on profits of Tech, oil and other companies to finance social protections and a huge climate energy initiative made more sense, leading to the passage of the $369 climate bill  and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.  The WSJ makes these points- Britain has a higher current account deficit and higher debt at over 100% of GDP compared to the period of Thatcher in the 1980's when debt was only 40% of GDP. Most important is what the WSJ says about what has happened since the 2009 financial crisis and the austerity policies pursued after that crisis that were worsened by the pandemic so that public services in Britain are actually crumbling. Politically this lacks popular support and little backing at a time of a recession in the British economy, because such policies require public support to go through a tough period . And taking this trickle down economics today when Britain faces a cost of living crisis may be an unwise act of taking an approach that is no longer relevant or shown to be working at the worst possible time, says the WSJ. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
About 900 Arab refugees are crammed into a boat which capsizes 60 miles off the Libyan coast in April 2015, killing about 850 people. This is the worst single incident in an increasing influx of refugees from boats leaving the Libyan coast for Italy. About 171,000 refugees from North Africa made this journey in 2014, and increasing numbers are doing it in 2015 to flee the civil wars in Syria and Libya, and hardship conditions in Tunisia, Eritrea and other sub-Saharan countries.