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A brief history of Xinjiang which translates as New Frontier in Chinese. Its the western frontier of China and a vast area that comprises the desert region of the Tarim basin. It has 13 sizeable ethnic minority groups and borders eight countries. Because of the lack of irrigation technologies these arid expanses were settled very late in history, says Victor Mair, a Professor of Chinese language and literature at the University of Pennsylvania. Even the Uighurs were tribes from the Mongolian steppes who settled Xinjiang in the 10th century. For China it was mostly aplace for havin border military garrisons. Around the 10th century and the Tang dynasty in China, trade on the Silk Road- with places like Kashgar oasis towns on the fringes of the desert as hubs- was at its height. It was not until 1760 under the Quing dynasty of ethnic Manchus, that this area was annexed by CHina and serious effort made to settle it with demobilized troops. A civil and military administration encouraged immigration, say scholars Millward and Perdue in a 2004 book of essays by 16 scholars, "Xinjiang: China's Muslim Borderland." About 50,000 demobilized troops were offered benefits, seeds and land if they stayed. A similiar situation seems to have been repeated after Mao annexed Xinjiang in 1949. In the early 1950's the Chinese government established the Xinjiang Province Production and COnstruction Corps, which was setup to manage large farms and construction projects called bingtuan and provide jobs for demobilized troops. The bingtuan are profitable enterprises and an estimated one of every six people in Xinjiang are employed in bingtuan, or 1.3 million people. THe HAn who were 6% of the population in 1949, now comprise 40% of the 20 million population of Xinjiang. Another source of employment is in the oil and gas industry, with the Communist party secretary of Xinjiang for the last 15 years being aprotege of President Hu Jintao, from his days in the Communist Youth League, coming from the oil industry province of of Shandong. These jobs are mostly all reserved for Chinese which causes resentment among the local Uighurs. Wong quotes a Uighur university student as saying, who is the foreigner here and whose culture, language and way of life should be protected. This may be the crux of the grievances of the Uighurs, as their use of the language and religious practice is restricted, and they feel they are second class citizens in their own land. Other articles in the NYT and Economist go to point out that the links with international terrrism are not a source of the problem, and the unrest among the Uighurs is more about a feeling of loss of culture, language, religion and identity, and jobs. And the idea that the best way to work with minorities, or regions with different language, religion and culture, just as the British did in South Asia and India is doing now is through tolerance. See the links to NYT and Michael Wines on 7/11/2009 about the Communist party secretary for Xinjiang, Wang Lequang, whose policies in Xinjiang and now in Tibet through a protege, may be worsening this situation. ...

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VW's sales in the U.S. doubled between 2009 and 2012, and VW set aggressive goals for the U.S. market to reach 800,000 by 2018. The goal was a stretch goal because this was double the level of 438,000 vehicles in 2012. This was part of its Mach 18 plan to pass GM and Toyota in global sales by 2018. Now this goal appears less achievable, because of new models from Honda and Ford which surpass VW's Jetta and Passat in technology, features and fuel efficiency. The U.S. market sales have increased by 9.6% in 2013, VW's sales declined by 1.3% so far through August in 2013, at 282, 913 vehicles. Ramping up production at the new Chattanooga plant will have to be put off and 500 contract workers have been given leave from the assembly line. By contrast Toyota sales for the 8 month period 2013 increased by 7% and 8.6%. In August Toyota's were up 23%, Honda's 27%, and VW down 1.6%. VW executives have said the company needs sales of 400,000 to make the U.S. manufacturing operations profitable. VW made a strategic decision to cut costs and bring the Passat price more in line with competition from similiar cars from Japanese carmakers. But this was done not relying solely on productivity and other improvements, but used cost cutting using cheaper materials. VW even went one step further by taking away the European suspension which delivered a more precise ride, and installed a lower cost suspension on the Jetta and Passat. Customers have noticed with some buying older models with the European suspension. Honda and Toyota moved in the other direction in the last 2 years coming out with more advanced features on the Accord and Camry. Ford did this with the Fusion. The new Accord has a backup camera, iPod connection, power seats and alloy wheels as standard. As a result Passat sales were up only 3% through Aug 2013, and Accord sales increased by 17%, Ford Fusion sales up 13%. VW's response is to ramp up discounts. It is also coming up with a new engine, Jetta compact with a sportier ride will be introduced, and a redesigned Golf hatchback for 2014. The slowdown in sales at VW shows how competitive the car market has become with Korean, German, Japanese and American carmakers quick to make inroads in turn with weak points of the competition. Strategic missteps can be costly for any manufacturer and the customer can never be taken for granted....

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The U.S. and China presented conflicting views on trade and security in Asia-Pacific region at the APEC summit in 2018. Vice President Pence said "we don't drown our partners in a sea of debt," in a criticism of the China Belt and Road Initiative. The U.S. has 1500 new projects and $61 billion in new investments in the region. Mr. Xi Jinping stated " confrontation in a Cold War, hot war, trade war will produce no winner." 

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Reinhart is saying something similiar to what Krugman said earlier, and Peter Eavis said in the Heard on the Street column on March 24, 2009. The Geithner plan is similiar to the Paulson plan. It is trying to get private investors to buy up toxic assets by offering incentives. But the pricing issue like before is left vague and unanswered. And its success looks increasingly doubtful as the is not only the problem of confidence and illiquidity that these plans are confronting, but something more structural and basic about how much these toxic assets are worh and whether it makes sense to bid for them and at what price so that ooooooone is protected on the downside. Reinhart points out that the stress tests are also there, and it may just be that the government is waiting for public support to build for taking on the losses involved in getting rid of toxic assets, and is right now going the longer circuitous route. At some point the government may decide the time is right to sort out the banking institutions finances through the stress tests, make the tough decisions for banks that are not healthy by government takeover, and deal with the toxic assets as owner of these failed banks....

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Greece's minister for migration tells the Times that seven charities including one in London form part of a chain stretching from Somalia to Britain in which smugglers move migrants illegally.  One of the seven charities is in London and is seen as colluding with human traffickers who are putting lives of migrants at risk. Greece has 70,000 migrants living in squalid refugee centres. Of these 17,000 are on islands in the Aegean sea. Europe cannot cope with all these migrants illegally making the crossing, much less during this pandemic. It has also unsettled the countries where migrants are settled on a humanitarian basis as there is at the same time serious neglect of poverty stricken communities inside Europe who are not getting the assistance they deserve. The result is even less focus on the development needs, on infrastructure, education and healthcare of the countries in Europe where migrants are headed, with the attention diverted to the migrants issue. Economic progress in Europe and rapid development could not only improve the condition of people in all communities, it could also help finance more foreign aid development project assistance to Africa and other countries. This would if vigorously done keep people in their home countries and help fulfill their development aspirations there, which is the better way.  Chancellor Merkel of Germany should have opted for a better way by setting up a program for aspiring migrants in the countries of Africa with a generous visa program offering training and technological skills, which could then be brought back to the country in Africa where it could generate jobs and opportunities with the necessary capital from European and other financial institutions and governments. This effort made in alliance with Britain and France could be powerful in its impact. Instead a haphazard three years of migration led to internal divisions, loss of confidence in the CDU and the SDP, FDP parties in coalitions, ending up where it should have started in the first place- reducing the migration to a trickle, returning some migrants back to their countries, and focussing on bringing economic assistance and development assistance to African countries for opportunities in these countries and a brighter future so that no one would want to leave and drift on oceans in tiny boats in the first place. The condition of the people in Africa is not so hopeless that the best they can do is to send their young people to drift on boats on the high seas in the hope of refugee status. China has shown that the there is a path from famine during the years following the Great Leap Forward to the development of today. India is doing that now and can repeat that story. Japan and South Korea, Taiwan have done this after devastating wars and out of nothing. Imagine what the world would be like if all these people in Asia set out on small boats for Europe.       ...

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The work and style of Indian modernist architect Balkrishna Doshi who worked with Le Corbusier and Louis Kahn, and designed the iconic IIM's in Ahmedabad and Bangalore is shown in this report in the NYT by Fred Bernstein. He passed away in Ahmedabad at the age of 95. Working with Kahn and Le Corbusier on new projects that gave India a new identity as a modern nation for the aspirations of its youth Doshi gave the young country new spirit.

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After denying clearances for development projects for three decades, the Indian Supreme Court green bench of Justices Gavai and Vikram Nath clears 118 development projects already delayed for 5 years for pending litigation. 118 projects were cleared, including 15 held up for 10 years, based on the "sustainable development" idea that takes a look at the bigger picture, the aspirations of youth, and the bigger possibilities for renewables and environment with a bigger economy. It shows how India which at one time in 1990 had about the same GDP as China, has today one fifth the GDP of China, and with it lacks the same scale of investment for renewable energy and climate change action that China has because of China's larger economy. In this sense the whole country of 1.2 billion Indians, including hundreds of millions of farmers and urban residents, the Supreme Court and India's institutions, have suffered more than the one lost decade the prime minister referred to in the Budget session of parliament. It is more like three decades since China pushed ahead after 1990. China having suffered from the Japanese invasion and civil war for three decades in the 1920-49 period and three decades of drift in economic direction following 1949. India faced its own period of failed governance that matches the failures in China by 1990. The SC bench stated- "The Supreme Court is flooded with applications after applications, seeking permissions to construct primary schools, public health centers, anganwadi centers, an other public utility buildings in remote areas. Himachal Pradesh is constrained to approach the Supreme Court even for seeking permission to connect villages in remote areas by roads. Needless to state, the citizens residing in the remote areas cannot be deprived of the developmental activities that are being done in other parts of the country."  The Supreme Court called it ridiculous that the states were required to rush to the Supreme Court to do the minimal developmental activities.  That the Supreme Court and other institutions have taken so long to say and do this is itself one of the reasons India has fallen behind China. It will need to accelerate its efforts, in the way that the rest of the country and the world is doing to create an environment in which development can meet the aspirations of the Indian people. Efforts for climate change action can take place at the same time with bigger investment capabilities from the larger economy and advanced technological capabilities. The two can and do go together, a point missed for far too long.  An approach even the US has grasped and is doing under president Biden. The US has gone through its own period of failed governance for four decades of neglect of manufacturing and infrastructure that president Biden talked about in his State of the Union address to the US Congress last week.  Biden now sees the problem itself as an opportunity to get it right. So can India.   ...

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The demand for ships went up so steeply that shipping rates hit the roof, and the prices of ships went up accordingly. Between the end of 2006 and July 2008 , shipyards received enough commissions, says the Economist, that this would double the world's fleet. Just as demand has collapsed and international trade has gone down, about 9000 ships are coming onstream. Now 11% of fleet capacity justs sits on the water, in the seas outside the harbors of Singapore, Hong Kong and other southeast Asian ports. A 150 tonne cape class ship that sold in 2003 for $18.5 million in the used market, when rates for charter were $15,000 a day, had risen by summer 2008, to $85 million with rates of $175,000 a day. These rates went up even more to $300,000 a day, which is 20 times what it was in 2003. And rates today are back down to $15,000 a day, where they were in 2003. This ship, cited by a broker, to give some idea of the extent of this boom and its collapse, was sold for scrap at $7 million. And South Korean shipyards are taking this into account, in their pricing and collection of payment, with 20% demanded upfront, 60% during construction, and 20% upon delivery. The backlog in shipyards is estimated by Clarkson Research, a maritime research firm, at $526 billion, even as banks are leery of lending and concerned about the value of the collateral in the event of default. Some smaller Korean shipyards are closing. Steve Mann, analyst at HSBC, says that half of the orders for delivery in 2010 will be delayed, so that there is work for 2011 and inventory or excess capacity does not pile up on the oceans. Even in this situation China, India and Vietnam continue to support the expansion of their own shipyards. This suggests additional losses for shipbuilders, shipping lines and the banks that lend to shipyards. All this also goes to show that the rush to industrialize, once it gets a firm footing- like it has in the Chinese model of increasing investment and local governments pushing infrastructure, industry and export factories with officials judged on GNP growth numbers- can exacerbate a boom-bust cycle. This is one industry, others include machinery manufacturers, commodity producers, and manufacturers of parts that go into finished products assembled in China for export. This means it would take the world economy down with it, if some external factor like the drop in export demand suddenly slows everything down. Machinery manufacturers in Germany, commodity producers in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and manufacturers of the high tech parts in Japan and Taiwan that are shipped to China for assembly, all go down in this boom-bust cycle, in a dramatic manner. ...

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The arithmetic doesn't seem right. I tried 2 gallons a day for a user who commutes to work, for 20 days a month. Thats 480 gallons tack on 1.5 times that for leisure driving and out of town trips and yoy have 720 gallons. If the mpg is up from 25 to 50 then you save the cost of 360 gallons. At $4.00 a gallon this is $1440 for savings per year. At this date June 2007 the price of gasoline at the pumps is $3.75, so $4 is not unreasonable. And improving mpg from 25 to 50 is not unrealistic if you include improvements that should occur if car companies continue to develop this technology. At $1440 you would recover the cost in over 2 years. And its a smart bet for car drivers and car companies, and a smart bet for the US and the global economy to keep gasoline prices in check as China, India, Brazi,l and Russia, and the rest of Asia and the world increase their oil consumption.

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It is written in the Bhagavad Gita (Swarupananda) "Know that these (two prakritis) are the womb of all beings, I am the origin and dissolution of the whole universe, Beyond me, O Dhanajaya, there is naught. All this is strung in me, as a row of jewels on a thread." Indonesian president Subianto won election by 58% of vote with promise for 90 million children free school lunches. He was invited guest for Bharat (India's) Republic Day parade in New Delhi alongside prime minister Modi of Bharat (India). Indonesia and Bharat in this part of Asia, it has 1.7 billion people. The ancient god Hanuman is revered in Indonesia and Bharat, the people here are determined to breakthrough into the modern world of science and technology. Japan, South Korea and China made progress since the 1890's over 135 years. Bharat is poised with Indonesia to bring 1.7 billion people into the Modern World for Vikshit Bharat Developed Bharat by 2047, the 100th anniversary of Independence. For this much of the work was done by Mohandas Gandhi, and less well known the selfless leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998-2004 and Modi 2016-2025. Without Vajpayee's leadership there would be no base for Modi's effort for modernization. Swami Vivekananda inspired in turn Gandhiji, Sukarno, Vajpayee, and Modi- the thread of yoga and Bharat runs right through it all as it is said in the Bhagavad Gita.     ...

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A new Pew Research Center Survey shows prime minister Modi enjoying 88% popularity, very high ratings for a world leader. More unusual is that Modi's popularity was 87% in a Pew Survey in 2015, showing extraordinary resilience. This comes after moves to remove the large denomination rupee notes under what is called demonetization to take out some of the black money in India and increase tax revenues that were lost due to evasion. In South Asia tax evasion is rampant, much more than in countries like Italy of the eurozone. The move was difficult as it required being sudden, and a shift to use of debit cards and ATM's which required additional effort, slowing the economy. The other moves such as on GST tax were designed to facilitate doing business in India with one tax and free movement of goods replacing different state by state taxes. Business has not responded quickly to support Modi, and the Indian economy being prepared for the long term growth Modi hopes to generate is slowing in the short term. GDP growth has dropped to 6%. A bullet train planned in western India with help from Japanese financing and technology is being criticized unfairly because of the collapse of an old bridge near a railway station in Mumbai. Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes at Pew Research, says the survey was done after demonetization but before the GST tax overhaul. This is not likely to change Modi's high ratings. The GST overhaul has been on the agenda for many years for all political parties in India. The views of Modi are not necessarily the same as for his BJP party which are lower for the party, the party gaining more from Modi's efforts and leadership, including in his home state of Gujarat. ...

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Joffe says one party regimes in the Arab world have let the Palestinian issue fester because it helped them to stay in power. It helped these regimes by diverting attention and hostility to "Palestine" as an issue and creating anti-Americanism. Meanwhile the real issues of economic stagnation and lack of freedoms to debate and decide their future in a pluralistic society were set aside. Arab peoples throughout the Middle East have simply stood up for their own rights and freedoms, free of anti-Americanism and eager for American and European support.

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Places like Rapid City, South Dakota, and Topeka, Kansas, where people are choosing to live because of the affordability of homes. Average 30 year mortgage jumped from 3.1% at the end of 2021 to 5.0% by April 2022. High housing prices in coastal and mountain region cities and remote work flexibility are reordering where people choose to live. Rapid City, South Dakota is near the Wyoming border, here you are in what was once the Wild West of Teddy Roosevelt, a western wilderness found in an 8 hour drive to Grand Teton National Park. Nearby to this 145,000 population city are Mount Rushmore and the Black Hills mountain range.

Other cities that are getting attention from younger buyers are Santa Cruz, California, Santa Rosa, California. These are smaller towns of less than 600,000 population with outdoor recreation opportunities and small city feel, and are also attractive to retirees.

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Supply chains are unraveling in many industries with the tariffs imposed by president Trump on imports from China, and renegotiated trade deals with South Korea and other countries. The growth in the value of foreign value added was possible with cuts in tariffs in the period after 1990 and the emergence of China as a low cost manufacturer with cheap labor. Foreign value added increased from 20% in 1990 to 30% in 2011. The impact on factory towns and communities in the U.S. of trade in which the U.S. manufacturing declined as it shifted to China resulted in the surge in support for president Trump. The tariffs war with China is an effort to correct this imbalance. The result is a shift in supply chains away from China in some industries and gradual shift in others. Rising wages in China had already resulted in early shifts and the the environmental costs adding to this trend. President Trump temporarily suspended a threatened imposition of duties of 25% on $325 billion of Chinese imports. A renegotiated Nafta agreement with Mexico for automobile production and determination of U.S. based content and wages was designed to reset the relationship with Mexico and the auto supply chain for production in Mexico. A threat of tariffs on European auto imports to the U.S. is set for a decision in November. The trade dispute between Japan and South Korea and threat of tariffs also shows the effect this is having in other countries. With the U.S. looking at its own interest in the global supply chain and its advantage or disadvantage, industries and companies are not free to make decisions based on which country offers the best arrangement and deal for manufacturing. Notions of competitive advantage in the tech race with China are affecting the way the U.S. and European nations are acting. ...

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During a public dialogue during the federal government's open day German Chancellor Scholz takes time to go over the origins of the war in Europe as he understands it. Of Russia acting "clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country," in an imperialist manner. Here is what he said- On Nato During talks before the war started in February when he met Putin in Moscow Scholz assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO "in the next 30 years." NATO was never a threat to Russia even though Putin says NATO's increasing eastward expansion was to the detriment of Russia's interests. On the origins of the war in Europe- Scholz says Putin launched the war for "completely absurd reasons." During his talks with Putin for example he says Putin told him that Belarus and Ukraine should not be independent states. "This is a war that Putin, Russia, started, clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country. I think that was the original goal." "Putin actually had the idea of swiping a felt-tip pen across the European landscape and then saying, 'This is mine and this is yours.' " Something Germany could not accept. Scholz condemns Putin's imperialism. He compares Russia's actions to the early days of imperialism. Scholz was reported to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms book Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy in Europe from 1453 to the Present, before the war started. Simms shows a Europe that fought intermittent wars for supremacy between European powers Spain, Britain, Dutch, French, Germany, Austria- Hungary, Russia, Sweden over most of the period 1450 to 1950. The last part of the period was marked from 1850 to 1900 by an openly imperialist land grab for territory in Africa and Asia between Britain, France, Japan and Germany.  The period 1950 to 2000 marked by the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union and China.    On planning for the war in advance- DW.com reports that Olaf Scholz is convinced that Putin planned this war long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. On the future of the war- Scholz says he will not end the dialogue with Putin. Scholz and Germany, Biden and the US want to show that the imperialist type of expansion into neighboring states is no longer accepted, not for Russia or China. Scholz says Russia is currently engaged in gaining territory in eastern Ukraine, but it is not certain that it will stay that way, so giving in is not a sensible strategy.  Ukraine needs the Black Sea ports and the area around Kherson on the Dnieper river to maintain its economy through exports of foodgrains. There is international consensus that these exports are essential to most of Africa and other parts of the world. The war in the remaining part of 2022 into the winter is being fought in this area. Another area of international consensus is that of the refugees mostly women and children in other parts of eastern Europe, and the displaced people within Ukraine moving from the east and south to the west. For the first time the US and Germany are providing Ukraine with the air defense systems that it needs to protect refugees, something that was missing for the many early months of the war leading to millions of refugees inside and outside Ukraine.       ...

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Biden administration slightly changes wording using  "statehood" as it relates to Taiwan, a well functioning Democracy nation of 23 million people just south of the Korean peninsula. China protests and weeks later it is reversed. The DJT administration is restoring this wording on grounds that US does not want ambiguity, it wants to see a democratic nation be able to follow peaceful coexistence in Asia. Early hints how the world situation is changing with DJT administration's return to "common sense" in policies is that it seeks to bring Russia back into the community of western nations. Restoring relations  reminiscent of when China breaks away from the Soviet bloc in the 1970's, Russia moving away from its subordinate position to China.  American Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg seeks to avoid losing a whole generation of young people in Russia and Ukraine with continued war. America's idea is consistent with Wilson support of China during Sun Yat Sen's 1911 Revolution, FDR and Gen. Joe Stilwell support for China during the Imperial Japanese Army rampage through Asia in 1930's. America does not want to see fellow Europeans an entire generation of young men from Ukraine and from Russia lose their lives in a senseless war. DJT shows America is listening when he says Russia would never accept Ukraine in NATO and some voices in Europe (British, East European) have made it appear that this is possible.. Kasyanov a former senior Russian policymaker says Russia wants to see a new generation structure replacing old outdated institutions from the Cold War. NATO needs to be rethought, and a new institution be formed to replace it that puts behind us the Cold War. This is also a European idea expressed by Macron and other leaders.   ...

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Friedman visits the campaign office of Abdel Moneim Fotouh, a doctor running for president of Egypt. What he finds is a lively debate among Egyptians, new and many voices discussing the future of Egypt and a transition to democratic forms of government and economic progress. One newly elected member of parliament Hamzawy tells Friedman that Islamists from the Brotherhood have about two thirds of the seats, the liberals 20%. Moderates within the Islamists like Fotouh, who left the Brotherhood, form a separate faction inside the Brotherhood. There will be a need to transcend differences and work together. Egypt is still under the rule of the military, but many democratic voices are now present and a lively debate is on which will provide the impetus for real change and progress, if properly channelled.

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Of the estimated 14,400 candidates for provincial elections in Iraq, about 4000 are women. And security improvements have enabled women even in Basra to stand up for elections. In the current Iraqi constitution there is amandate for 25% of seats in Parliament to be reserved for women, but there is no such provision for provincial elected parliaments. This does not imply that years of lack of representation in the last 50 years under dictatorships, and the rule of religious parties and militias, is going to be easily overcome. Many qualified women simply don't want to risk standing for election because of threats to their safety and the male dominated culture that prevails. Its the courageous ones who are standing. The hope is that women can also put adent in the deep corruption that prevails in government and bring a new perspective and better representation of society.

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U.S. auto sales increased by 7.5% in October 2011. Chrysler sales were up 27% in October. Its Jeep vehicles had the best sales performance in 5 years. Jeep sales were up 25% and Ram pickup sales were up 21%. Ford Motor Company sales were up 6.2%, and GM sales were up 1.7%. Sales of Ford's F- series pickup trucks were up 7% and sales of Escape sport utility vehicles were up 30%. Lincoln sales declined 11%. For GM the Cruze small car and the Equinox crossover sales were up, while Buick sales were down 7% and Cadillac 12%. Because of limited vehicle supplies Honda and Toyota showed decline in sales by 1% and 7.9% respectively. The annualized seasonally adjusted selling rate in October was 13.26 million vehicles. Reasons given for the pickup in auto sales by analysts are that buyers had held off buying in 2009 and 2010 and are now back in the market as their vehicles show signs of aging. Hyundai sales were up 23%, VW's up 39.6% and Mercedes-Benz's sales up 28%.