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Mr. Trump has decisively changed the Republican party. Most Republicans support Mr. Trump personally, less the Republican party. Mr. Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina, says of the Republican party before Trump that it had become a bit staid, that we looked like the banker next door who may foreclose on your house. Mr. Romney epitomized that in his view. Gone are the views on deficits, on wars, and on imports and transfer of technology to China as being acceptable.  Five years from 2015 when Mr. Trump came into prominence with his new style taking on the establishments of both parties with a fierce disdain for convention, both the Bushes and the Obamas and Clintons, the Republican party is completely transformed. Registered Republicans are now 60% non college educated in 2020 compared to 50% non college educated in 2016. The Trump policies on trade putting American workers first and America first have a resounding popularity with this audience- this should be no surprise after decades of job losses and factories shipped overseas under the previous administrations for 2 decades. Most of these workers are not college educated and are white and had enjoyed a good standard of living with a high school education in American factories till the shift of American manufacturing to China destroyed good paying jobs and impoverished the American working class.  Only 30% of college educated people are registered Republicans in 2020 compared to 40% in 2016. Overwhelmingly about 90% of registered Republicans are white.  They are majority male and older but there is a significant about 40% female and 40% young population under 40 years of age. This might resemble the party put together by Missouri Congressman Harry Truman as he led the Democratic Party in 1948 with a majority of non college educated Democrats, fighting for American workers and America first in the cold war with Russia. Truman also had a rough Missouri farm language and accent comparable to Mr. Trump's rough style and language disdainful of the old establishment and new tech establishment. Both were heavily disliked by the media and both did not let this bother them in any way. Both liked facing large crowds as Truman showed in campaigning by train across the country and Trump has shown in campaign rallies run in his own way. ...

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The astounding fact in this French FR24 report on the Paris Climate Change Agreement and country carbon emissions show that China's emissions accelerated to rise 3 fold in 2015 to about 12 billion tons of carbon emissions from about 4 billion in 2000. US remains at about 6 billion. India is at about 3 billon tons of carbon emissions, about where China was in 2000 when it had about 4 billion tons of carbon emissions. This is shown in the graph on carbon emissions from FR24. The US, European Union graph curves on tons of carbon emissions since 2000 are all flat or declining, India rising slowly from a small base, China's curve is rising straight up from a large enough base at an unbelievable and dangerous rate. What has happened and is it getting worse? China's economy expanded too quickly as globalization was accelerated by banks, and business in the US and Europe, and by the Chinese governments at the local level and the state level. This had negative consequences for US, Europe and China. The too fast growth in China at rates of 10-15% based solely on False GDP indicators that did not take into account damage to the environment and workers was that it hurt manufacturing and working class in US and Europe and contaminated the environment. This was not like growth of Japan in 1960-1980, a smaller country in the way it affected the US and European working classes. Hyper Growth at 10-15% of a large country with 1 billion people compressed over a short period, is cited by Greg Ip in the WSJ as the cause of the negative impact on America.  It hurt China through pollution of rivers and land at an accelerated pace. It hurt China as trade with US and Europe became unsustainable with the loss of manufacturing in the US and Europe leading to a trade war. From these graphs of emissions it now appears that the 3 fold rise in carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons in 2000 to about 12 billion tons in 2015 is the result of unregulated business activity of all those who preferred to push hyper growth in China purely for reasons of profit such as investment banks and corporations in US, Europe, and state or local companies in China.  This has also aggravated inequality in US, Europe and China, and hurt rural populations. Xi Jinping is attempting to correct this in China, Biden is trying to correct this in the US, and Scholz will now attempt to correct this in Germany and the European Union. It is also to be noted that China in 2000-2015 did not have the benefit of the newer technologies that India now has access to, which is why India says it is able to reduce carbon emissions per each unit of GDP by 35% from 2005 levels by 2030. It is this efficiency in producing units of GDP with newer and newer technologies that China lacked in its period of hyper growth 2000-2015 that now looks to have hurt China- with overflow of highly polluting steel mills and other factories which it would prudently and wisely have cut back on. Looking back at this period one sees the wholesale transfer of highly polluting plants in Germany being sold and put up in China, a poor developing country in 2000. Was this a good decision for Germany or for China? In this way the banks and large corporations in the US and Europe who use economic indicators that are limited such as dollar profits, without overall indicators that include negative effect damage to the environment that requires huge investments to correct, problems of trade wars leading to political conflicts, are acting like a person walking blindly in one direction.  With some foresight China and all its trading partners would have done better with slower but more careful Chinese growth of 7-8% that would have better met societal goals in US, Europe and China, avoiding high carbon emissions segments of industries from Day 1. Jinping is doing this in China, and Biden is doing this in the US- cutting out highly polluting factories and segments of industries- but in a climate of mutual distrust, which could have benefitted the world when conducted in a climate of cooperation and trust. The pandemic made the situation even more difficult. Power shortages in factories and blackouts in Chinese cities have led to a reversal of policies on use of coal in China months before the COP26 Glasgow conference and G-20 summit leaving a huge gap. Without the presence of Xi Jinping at COP26 in Glasgow and with Chinese participation uncertain significant progress on climate change is elusive. Estimates by US Renewable Energy Agency is that it would cost $131 trillion to pay for limiting emissions to global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Some major share of this cost can be attributed to the increase from about 4 billion tons in 2000 of carbon emissions in China to about 12 billion tons in 2015, increase by 3 times. One can clearly see from this sudden jump in carbon emissions in China that policies of hyper growth with unregulated polluting industries adding to GDP growth figures was bad policy for China, bad policy for US, and Europe, even if it offered temporary profits for individual companies. India has the advantage of learning from this experience and charting its own wiser course as a partner with US, Europe and Japan and by Modi's vigorous efforts in renewable energy. The lesson- look at all indicators of progress, including climate and society, not just economic indicators in profit or dollar terms, take the tough decisions early in regulating polluting companies and industry segments, and bring full and active public participation with transparent access to data on climate damaging activity in real time because climate and the environment we live in free of polluting substances belongs to all the people, belongs to all life on the planet from trees to animals and birds, not companies that can choose to ignore it. ...

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Liz Goodwin and Riley Beggin report from Hillard Ohio where Amazon is building a large data center using land adjoining a school and a park for children. Parents are collecting signatures for a ban. About 70% of Americans are opposed to the data centers building in their local area, after an aggressive push with tax breaks and incentives provided by some states. Virginia, Georgia, Texas, and Ohio most aggressive data center builders in the US by 2026- construction jobs, and investment, as pros, electricity usage and use of farmland cons. Ohio's governor DeWine paused tax breaks after realizing that it cost the state $1 billion in lost revenue. Amazon says it has invested $70 billion in the state since 2016. Democrat politicians are not taking up the bans because of some unions supporting the data centers for jobs created in construction. Another reason is that politicians in general face attacks from the tech companies donating to campaigns against them if they call for a ban. Sherrod Brown Democrat in Ohio asks data centers to pay for their electricity but has not supported a ban-  “With data centers, we make sure the investors pay for electricity. Not the people who live in Zanesville or Coshocton or in Cambridge.” The big reason to support it from the jobs perspective is stated by the unions. Tim Burga of the AFL-CIO in Ohio says-  “These are creating good union jobs, both in the construction, but also in the keeping them secure and maintaining them."  Now you have a public frustrated particularly in quiet suburbs of America who see this as an intrusion into their lives, which means Republican and Democrat, Red State and Blue State, makes little difference. Construction workers and unions excited about the prospects for decent jobs after the Obama and Bush elites shipped 5 million jobs (Lighthizer USTR estimate) to China over 2000-2016, and transferred $20 trillion in American wealth to foreign countries by blindly accepting unfair trade with China, EU, Canada, Mexico. And see this as part of the MAGA effort to bring back the supply chains to America for all manufactured products in the interests of reliable supply, national security, and the promise of good paying jobs for the communities across America that depended on these jobs since the industrial revolution inthe US at the turn of the century in 1900. It took only 2 decades to wipe them out under what Lighthizer and Jamieson call "shortsighted leadership" of  Republican Bush and Democrat Obama and their corresponding elites. These communities were hit more than once, twice, thrice, four times in fact- in 2009 by the banker's aided and abetted financial crisis, by Bush starting and Obama continuing the Afghan Iraq wars on different pretexts (diverting trillions of dollars that otherwise go to job creation and manufacturing, new technologies), and then by Covid in 2019. This is the America in which the data center building spree is taking place- a plus if done right and with some carefully thought out plan for water/electricity usage costs and for AI guardrails, protection for farmland and areas near parks and schools, and residential suburbs.   ...

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It will take some time for AI software firms (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google)  to generate returns. Yet AI enabling goods, the AI chipmakers (the hardware) made by Taiwan, South Korea and the US's Nvidia are making large profits from the boom in AI investments worldwide. South Korea's Samsung SK Hynix, Taiwan's TSMC and Nvidia in the US are chip makers making huge sales revenue in AI enabling goods- $2.6 trillion for Asian makers including Japan, $1.4 trillion for all US chip makers. This report in the WSJ says whether and when the AI software makers (Google, Microsoft and Amazon)  turn a profit the AI boom is changing the habits of ordinary investors, surging the market capitalization of TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix and Nvidia, and creating a big surge in stock markets in Asia and a bit smaller by comparison in the US. Total spending in 2026 for worldwide AI services, infrastructure and software was $2.6 trillion in 2026, going up to $3.5 trillion in 2027. The most astonishing aspect of this is how much the AI boom has increased the Asian stock market indexes- TAIEX index of Taiwan which has gone up 55% year to date Jan-June 2026 in value and South Korea's Kospi index which has increased 110% in value. Taiwan's TSMC shares doubled in value. Japan's stock market index Nikkei up year to date Jan-June 2026 32%.  Another aspect of this is that just one company TSMC makes up 42% - market capitalization as a percentage of the overall stock index- of TAIEX Taiwan's stock market index. And just 2 companies Samsung and SK Hynix make up 55% of South Korea's KOSPI Index. By comparison the US S&P up 11% in the same period year to date Jan-June 2026. This report looks at the speculative fever as ordinary investors in the middle and lower income classes in Asia in Taiwan and South Korea from cab drivers, insurance agents, software programmers and elementary school teaches, to high school students with parental sponsored accounts, are all engaged in speculative trading in AI related stocks. What all this means in terms of the cost of living issues, the price of oil and gas with Hormuz and the Memorandum with Iran to open it, the social fabric splintering, the cultural issues splitting electorates in the US and Europe, the migration issues, the issues on world trade is a separate question. It is similar to the railroads and steamship building in the 19th century and the construction of the interstate highway system in the 20th century (in the 1950's in US and in 2000's in China, 2020 in India) different aspects of the Industrial Revolution that overlap with the social and political changes of each period in history. Speculative booms in financial markets accompanied these changes till they returned to a degree of normalcy. It still required regulation, oversight, building the modern institutions of government that improved the economic life of nations and people during the FDR/Truman/Ike  period, and the period after the sixties that shaped the European Union and economic progress in Europe, similar changes in China and India, Brazil. And the many changes now needed in 2026 in the US, and Europe for reindustrialization, and modernization in India, continued development in China. ...

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Krugman in the NYT describes the dangers of plutocratic power to American democracy. When exercized by the Murdochs, the Elon Musks, the Harlan Crows of this world. He cites presidents who are Republican and broke up the large oil companies in the 1900's, Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) who warned about "a small class of enormously wealthy and economically powerful men, whose chief object is to hold and increase their power." This is happening with the power of the so called Tech companies today and both parties seeking to break  up the Tech companies.  Then there is a Democratic president from this period Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921) who followed Theodore Roosevelt. Wilson says- "If there are men in this country who are big enough to own the government of the United States, they are going to own it." Theodore Roosevelt fought political machines such as Tammany Hall in New York as well as Rockefeller's Standard Oil Company. Wilson, a professor from Princeton, continued this tradition by protecting the working class of that time through his New Freedom campaign in 1913.  As a professor Wilson wrote the textbook The State used in colleges of that period, which set forth for the first time the basic idea of the state that we see today- "that forbids child labor, supervises the sanitary condition of factories, limits employment of women in occupations hurtful to their health, institutes official tests for the purity or quality of goods sold, that limits the hours of work in certain trades, and by a hundred and one limitations the power of unscrupulous or heartless men to outdo the scrupulous or merciful in trade or industry." Both were progressive Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. Wilson under his New Freedom platform for the 1913 election, asserted that it was the task of government "to make those adjustments of life that will put every man in a position to claim his rights as a normal human being." What president Biden is doing today is closest to what Wilson and Roosevelt were trying to achieve, and what Modi is doing today in India is also closest to what Wilson and Roosevelt were trying to achieve. In 1913 Wilson won 42% of the vote, Roosevelt 27% because of a split within the Republican party with Robert Taft. Wilson proposed breakup of oil companies to provide a level playing field for all companies. Similar decisions are being considered by president Biden today for Tech Companies. The future of both the US and India is being decided in these difficult times after a pandemic and in the middle of a European war, and a supply chain overconcentrated in one country in Asia. Wilson's idea "to put every man in a position to claim his rights as a normal human being," is being set forth by president Biden through the word "dignity," by Modi in India as "sab ka vikas, sab ke sath" (development for all, with all). The Greens and SPD's Scholz also set forth this idea as "dignity" for the worker for Germany.   ...

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Pressed by tariffs from DJT China is trying to become technologically sufficient, yet this comes at a considerable cost, says this report in WSJ. Made in China 2025 was put out in 2014 when president Xi was beginning his plans for the Chinese economy. It is 2025 now and a look at the nation's investment plans show China putting $250 billion a year in advanced manufacturing sectors from automobiles to solar panels and AI, says Centre for Strategic and International Studies CSIS in Washington. This is giving China an edge but at the cost of using up valuable resources and some wasted spending at a time of stagnant government revenues. China's new production needs new markets with overcapacity such as in the electric automobile industry. This overcapacity comes at a cost when the US and other countries are restricting imports from China with new trade policies. During the DJT first term in 2016 China pulled back reference to make in China 2025 but this was temporary and China's 2021 Economic Plan puts top priority to be self sufficient in Science and Technology. Industrial support for EV's went from $15 billion in 2019 to $45 billion in 2023 (CSIS). 48% of 11 million new vehicles were EV's in 2024 with BYD and Geely the main ones of 100 brands. In shipbuilding $132 billion was invested in 2010-2018 taking China from 5% in 1999 to 48% of total manufacturing of shipbuilding in 2025 worldwide. The same is true for manufacturing aircraft and chemicals. ...

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Jenna Wortham asks the question do tech companies have undue influence in Washington especially when they are pursuing their own ecosystem expansion, citing an example from Facebook app Free Basics. There is another question that comes with the election campaigns of Sanders, Trump and Clinton, and issues of upward mobility. With this issue raised also by Janet Yellen of the U.S. Federal Reserve of the loss of intergenerational mobility in the U.S. at a conference in Oct. 2014. This question is whether the tech world in California can be sensitive to the problems of cities depending on manufacturing in the midwest and the eastern U.S. that are recovering from deep recession, because the environments are so different. Working in the tech world in California is so different from the rest of the country, almost a different way of life. It also has deep political implications, because the priorities are different. Sometimes as with the TPP trade agreement they may conflict- this includes an industry such as the auto industry that also is incorporating technology at an accelerating pace and which has employed many times more people than does the tech industry in California, and in many states. This leads to president Obama's support for the TPP trade agreement, an agreement which analysis by some experts shows is more beneficial to the tech industry in California than to the auto industry in the midwestern states. The NYT's Krugman says overall for the U.S. it is marginally helpful as most of the gains in free trade are already behind us. See Lyrarc using search terms-Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, Trans Pacific Partnership. Yet it remains a mystery why president Obama has made it a part of his legacy, when Hillary Clinton realizing the issues in this election has clearly stated she will not support it. It has other implications as well, as it has given rise to demagogic rhetoric in this election, where other issues far more significant such as the condition of western democracy are at stake. ...

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Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

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A new foreign investment law passed by the Chinese People's Congress is designed to address concerns of western companies facing problems operating in China. This includes unequal market access, forced technology transfers, unfair treatment in public procurement. It was passed in only 3 months after the first draft was debated showing the importance Beijing places on the bill. Its a step designed to help in the trade talks with the U.S. about leveling the playing field. China amends its intellectual property law and introduces a punitive damages "mechanism" so that infringements are fairly dealt with. The new Chinese law replaces three foreign capital laws passed between 1979 and 1990, and is a unified legal standard for foreign investment in China. It eliminates the requirement for foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology to Chinese joint venture partners and protects against "illegal government interference." The European Union Chamber of Commerce says Article 40 still allows for"political issues to influence investor-state relations." Experts say this is a small step in the overall effort to level the playing field. ...

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President Trump announces a $ 16 billion farm aid program to help American farmers hurt by Chinese tariffs on American agricultural products. The money goes directly in payments to farmers. Mr. Trump sees the tariffs on Chinese products as paying for the program.

The Trump administration has blacklisted China's Huawei  and president Trump says that he considers it to be a threat to national security. He also sees it as a bargaining chip in future trade negotiations with the Chinese. China's president Xi sees his country's national sovereignty in how it sets its own economic policy and manages its economy as an issue. Both sides are far apart. Xi even cited the Long March led by Communist leader Mao to Yenan in the 1930's as an example of the fortitude needed by China in dealing with the American challenge.

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Higher inflation and interest rates at 2.2% are having a profound effect on the Japanese economy. Japan is starting a new era of positive interest rates with the first interest rate increase in 17 years this week. Pay raises reached an average of 5.28% in 2023, according to the Japan Trade Union Confederation where the highest for the previous decade was 2.4%. PM Kishida has pursued a course that encourages workers to get needed pay raises. It will affect everything from US mortgages to how much money stays at home and is invested in Japan. Japan holds $4.2 trillion in foreign investment holdings of which $1.1 trillion is in US Treasury bonds. As the differential with US interest rates decreases - varying from 1.5% to 3%- it will increase investment in the Japanese economy and in manufacturing at home. Japan has seen low wages and a hollowing out of its manufacturing sector similar to the US creating a sense of less hope for the future. This shift to investing in Japan is a change for reasons of supply chain reliability and increasing confidence of workers and worker's families in Japan. ...

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This report by Nate Cohn of the NYT shows how the U.S. election map is changing in 2016 with Hillary Clinton strong among college educated voters and weaker with working class voters than president Obama in 2008. She more than makes up for this loss of working class voters in many red Republican states in the southern U.S.- as Cohn shows there are about 1.5-2.5 college educated voters in the southern and mountain states compared to working class voters. The pattern is reversed in midwestern states where there are only about 0.5 college educated voters for every working class voters. This is why Trump is doing better in Ohio, Iowa and Clinton doing better in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Colorado, traditionally Republican states. Overall there is less focus on cultural wars and abortion issues in this election, with focus shifting to beneficiaries of globalization, and people hurt by trade and globalization in older factory towns. Even in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Cloumbus, Milwaukee, and in western Michigan Clinton does very well because of college educated voters, including white college educated voters. ...

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The election of Claudia Sheinbaum of the Mexico Regeneration Party Morena with about 60% of the vote, a margin of 30% over the Opposiion parties Galvez, shows the strong support for current  president Lopez Obrador who is limited to one term of 6 years. Sheinbaum, a close associate of Obrador during his time as Mayor of Mexico City, and his successor as Mayor, was chosen to run by Obrador. Morena Party won 6 of 9 governor elections in states and 253 of 300 Congressional seats, practically sweeping the whole country except for Guanajuto. This shows that the Mexican people believe that Obrador had carried Mexico through the pandemic, through the difficulties in relations with the US and the negotiation of a new trade agreement with US and Canada, and set the country for steady growth by support for the economy and good governance. He has also helped build popular support by working to improve the standard of living of the poorer classes in Mexico. Obrador tackled corruption in Mexico to give Mexico good governance following decades of corruption. ...

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With the theme of championing the interests of the people left out in the last 2 decades under both Bush and Obama, left out my technolgical changes and world trade trends, left out by the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath of deep unemployment for older people especially white men, struggling economically, Hillary Clinton tells the Democratic convention, "I will carry all your voices and stories with me to the White House." She tells millions of Bernie supporters  that she has heard them loud and clear-  "your cause, is our cause." In this way Hillary Clinton sought to dispel any doubts about her in people's minds for not being forthright on questions related to a private email server and from earlier periods, and from overzealous fundraising. Telling people that on the things that really count and matter in people's lives, just as Bill Clinton did in his campaign at a similiar juncture- she will be there for them always, and always working to put their hearts up and centre, with her Methodist upbringing and her unmatched ability to work relentlessly in pursuit of worthy public goals. ...

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WSJ's Jon Emont shows how a combination of environmental activists, the fires in Indonesian rainforests in 2015- that at one point emitted as much carbon as the US hurting investment in Indonesia- and action taken by the Indonesian government to limit deforestation, have led to cleaning up supply of palm oil through deforestation. Maps show the deforestation that took place before 2015 and between 2015-2021, in Borneo and Sumatra, islands in the Indonesian chain. Opaque supplier connections to plantations all over the country made it difficult to trace the supply of oil from suppliers such as Wanda, KPN and others to Unilever for Dove soap, Mondelez for cookies, and other users of palm oil. It was the concerted and persistent effort of Greenpeace, the Indonesian government and of the companies that made it possible to clean up the supply chain. In 2018-2021 palm oil production increased by only 1%, compared to 22% for the period 2015-2018.

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This essay by Hein De Haas in the WSJ says there is a need for honest discussion about immigration in the US, about how best to accomodate the need for workers in certain trades and occupations in an organized way. In fact there is no need for the issue to be politicized this much. It needs to be depoliticized now that the needs for these workers are going to be larger not smaller as the US population ages and there is need for workers in healthcare and support for aging, and in other places such as construction, building infrastructure as US rebuilds aging bridges, roads and airports. In the seventies it was ned for agricultural workers and temporary workers moving back and forth across the border. Only in recent times has the border crossings assumed the scale and dimension it now has with 2.5 million border crossings at the peak. By comparison to the needs for workers only 500,000 are given work permits. And the laws have not been changed since the Reagan administration amnesty and legislation. Haas says workforce enforcement is negligible today in recognition of the fact of worker needs even under Republican administrations showing the need for honest discussion and resolution of this problem. The other problems of rebuilding manufacturing, US competitiveness, education and vocational training, are very different and require different solutions so that letting the immigration issue spill over the way it has is bad for America in deciding the future direction of the country and the economy, and renewing hope for the future. ...

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The first farmer in recent history to become president of the US, 1977-1981, Jimmy Carter ran a peanut farm in the southern state of Georgia. He also served in the US Navy under Admiral Rickover. Rickover hired Jimmy Carter for the US early submarine program in 1949. It was Jimmy Carter's loss to Ronald Reagan that made the Democrat a rare one term president. The Iran hostage crisis happened during the election year 1980 which may have shifted the election in the Republican Reagan's favor. The economy also suffered from high inflation and lower growth during this period leading to the loss of the presidency for Carter. The incidents leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall happened during the Reagan presidency. This led to the period of three decades when the free market, less regulation period led to the 2009 economic crisis and the earlier breakup of the Soviet Union leading to the economic crisis in the early period in Russia. It was during this period that 2 Democrats president Clinton and Obama tacitly accepted the Reagan era policies of free markets and less regulation. This period is now coming to a close with the pandemic and a reassessment of what has happened. During that period Clinton paved the way for China's admission into the World Trade Organization. The lack of regulation has led to Section 230 leading to a proliferation of undesirable content on the internet, with support for regulation in the Us Congress. US policy is also moving to support its own industries something the Reagan policies saw negatively, particularly chip manufacturing where the US has lost its leadership role. The period that ended the Carter presidency is thus an inflection point that is now reversing itself decades later with the sense that government staying away from the economy is not a desirable thing. ...

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A hard fought election in Brazil between Mr. Bolsanaro and an ex-president Lula da Silva. Voting is compulsory in Brazil for all those who are literate and between age of 18 and 70 years. There are 156 million registered voters. President and members of Chamber of Deputies are elected for a four year term. Elections also take place for 27 governors for 26 states and one federal district. If no candidate in elections for president or governors gets 50% of the vote the vote heads to a runoff on October 30 between the top two candidates. Bolsanaro is supported by evangelical Christians in a Catholic country, rural landowners, and business people. He was a deputy or member of parliament for the state of Rio de Janeiro for 27 years, who won on a law and order and anti-corruption platform in 2018. Lula da Silva is a former trade union leader who was president from 2003 to 2010. He was popular during a commodity boom in Brazil's soyabean and iron ore export boom to China that financed social support programs. A corruption scandal affected his successor from the Worker's Party leading to the change in government after the collapse of the commodities boom. After he was given a jail sentence under the Bolsanaro government he was released by the Supreme court decision in 2019 that declared there was a lack of due process in his conviction. Mr. Bolsanaro also as a program to benefit poor families that is called Auxilio Brazil to replacve Lula's Bolsa Familia. Payments to 18 million recipients were increased in August and a monthly stipend was added for taxi and truck drivers by Bolsanaro. The competing interests and the pandemic with the high toll of around 685,000 deaths have created a highly contested election. ...

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The South China Morning Post, SCMP, looks at China at the 40th year of the great economic experiment  that changed China. This started with the Deng reforms by the then Chinese leader that opened up the economy in 1978. As this report points out in 1978 Deng Xiaoping's efforts at loosening the state control of the economy and business was actually a way to get out from the effects of the Cultural Revolution and prevent another Cultural Revolution. Deng was removed from office during the Cultural Revolution. Instead of unquestioned acceptance of Mao the new criterion was "Practice is the Sole Criterion for Testing Truth." In economic and business matters this was followed so that if it worked then the experiment was expanded, gradually giving life to the Chinese model of state capitalism, economic expansion under the state with the state supporting state corporations that operate in a market economy.  This means the Communist Party was to continue its control but with experimentation away from the planned economy in the coastal provinces of Guangdong and Fujian, and then into Shanghai. Experts close to Jiang Zemin, the next leader after Deng, say China's Communist state would not have survived without the changes started by premier Deng. Farmers still did not own the land but they were free to plant and own the yields for their efforts.  Deng established the Three Benefits Principle in 1992 trip to Guangdong, whatever helped increase productivity, increased the strength of the country and improved living standards was good, you did not judge it by whether it was socialist or capitalist. Jiang Zemin's work was to follow Deng's ideas and help negotiate the entry into World Trade Organization and set up the new economic regulations. Capitalists were allowed to join the Communist Party for the first time. State and local government ownership of land was turned into an advantage as this provided one of the critical inputs in terms of land for setting up new factories, with capital coming from savings, and other inputs of technology and investment coming from the U.S. after entry into the WTO brought American and European companies to China. A steady supply of labor poured in from the countryside and urbanization became a goal of Chinese development policies. Today India and other countries in Africa, Latin America, can look at the Chinese experience and effort and look for ways to modernize, urbanize and improve living standards, productivity and strength of their economy. One key is to experiment and look for what works that can then be expanded to other locations, and build on the advantages that may open up as the experiment makes progress. Following entry into WTO China was able to take advantage of overseas markets and build an edge in manufacturing, something that was not evident even in 1992.   ...

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Russia experts Robert Nurick of the Atlantic Council, and Graham Allison of the Belfer Center of International Affairs at Harvard, see a sea change in attitudes to Russia following the interventionist policies of president Putin. The Obama administration will now focus on limiting Russian influence for the remaining two years of Obama's second term. There is a loss of faith in Putin on the part of Obama and close advisors. Russia is seen as a regional power, and the Ukraine crisis is seen as having a serious impact on the Russian economy through decline in trade, foreign investment and capital outflows. Russia is a regional power because it is not the same as the old Soviet Union, it is much smaller, with a declining population, and dependent on oil revenues, and in this sense not the Russia U,S, president Truman and Kennan faced during the Cold War. Obama advisors see Putin's actions as counterproductive for Russia, as the economy is now seen as contracting in 2014, making its actions in Syria, and in Ukraine, unwise foreign policy moves that hurts Russia's economy and future prosperity. Democratically elected leaders in Turkey and Russia with control over the media and shutting down the opposition using control of the judicial process, have shortchanged democratic ideals, and in the process concentrated powers in one leader. This creates risks of arbitrary exercize of power without the checks and balances that are built into a truly functioning democracy, with foreign policy errors eventually leading to a resolution of the conflicts created as these policies are increasingly called into question. Putin and Erdogan were reelected because of economic growth- a contractionary economy or steep declines in growth put everything at risk. A footnote on Kennan, American diplomat and linguist, is appropriate. A quick reading of Wikipedia's excellent account of Kennan will show that Kennan was in favor of a nuanced approach to Russia based on changing conditions. He observed that policies that were seen as anti-Russian actually helped Russian leaders throughout history solidify autocratic type rule, which actually hurts Russia's normal evolution and development. Normal development and evolution similiar to ways Germany and other nations left behind Prussian history and traditions for a open, free society, and in the ways even the U.S. left behind older practices such as slavery in the south and limited representation democracy. In fairness to Kennan it should be said that containment of the Cold War was more a Truman-Acheson doctrine- continued under Eisenhower by Dulles-Nitze, and under Kennedy by Rusk-McNamara- which has roots in Soviet intentions of destabilizing war ravaged western Europe starting with Greece, following similiar efforts in Eastern Europe. Truman was right in aiding Greece, but the U.S. needed to be aware of changing conditions and not take a rigid stance, and get locked into supporting client states just because they were "our guys," a lesson Kennan emphasized throughout his life. Putin and Erdogan use appeals to Russian and Turkish nationalism to improve electoral support and stifle free expression of ideas necessary for growth in any society. This also provides a way to have a discussion with our German friends on engagement and economic relationships, without the rigid outlook of a Wilsonian or Acheson-Dulles kind. ...

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The bottom half of all U.S. households have only recently recovered the wealth lost in the 2009 financial crisis. They still have 32% less wealth than in 2003 when inflation is taken into account. The top 1% of households have more than twice as much as they did in 2003. Wealth is defined as net worth that includes houses , savings and stocks minus any debt. The wealthy have 85% of their wealth in stocks and bonds. For the bottom 50% half of the assets are in the house or family home. Economic and regulatory trends have happened in ways that favored the people investing in stocks, and rescued people investing in stocks with policies designed with this purpose by central banks and the U.S. government. By contrast for the bottom 50% buying a home is more difficult today. The problem this WSJ report points out is that the next recession would most hurt the bottom 50%, even before they have recovered from the last one which was a result of shaky practices of banks in financial lending and not some cyclical swing in the economy. Policy was then geared to provide a recovery first for stock markets as a way to economic recovery. The bottom 50% have little stake in the stock market, the top 1% have most of their gains from the stock market. Much of the popular anger comes from the way policies by both Democrats and Republicans differed little in past administrations in the way they approached this in shaping economic policy. As a result infrastructure building and investments in public services took less priority in this period of 30 years with trade imbalances with China building up on the external front, in another side to this development. The shift to Trump and to right wing populists in Europe is only the first phase in the corrective action that has to take place to return to a fairer distribution of wealth that existed before the last 3 decades. Eventually it is not right wing or left wing factions or parties, but healthy policies, that matter to create a better balance for society.  ...