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US policy is to end war as soon as nuclear threat is over- DJT on Iran war on March 31 2026. When the US feels Iran 'won't be able to come up with a nuclear weapon, then we'll leave,' says DJT. US is self sufficient and exports oil to Europe. It doesn't need Iranian oil. DJT makes that clear to allies in Europe who have not taken a stand in the war and limited access to their airbases, saying as Starmer did yesterday that Britain did not want to expand the war. Really, the US does not want to expand the war. DJT's MAGA base does not want this war, and Biden's base does not want this war. US does not need Straits of Hormuz- it is Britain, Italy and EU countries, mainly China, Japan, South Korea that need the Straits of Hormuz. Speaking for the US DJT tells these countries in Europe to get the oil themselves in the Straits. He also tells China to get the oil from the Straits- if they need it and are so complacent as to get 90% of their imports from Hormuz after 40 years of disruptions and wars, as China does. DJT said- "If France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the Hormuz Strait, they'll go right up there, and they'll be able to fend for themselves. What happens with the strait we're not going to have anything to do with, because these countries, China, China will go up and they'll fuel up their beautiful ships... and they'll take care of themselves. There's no reason for us to do it." "The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" ...

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Efforts to get funds like Abu Dhabi's and Singapore's to agree to a set of rules. Treasury and IMF talk to fund representatives from these countries.

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Turkey's former minister of economic affairs and treasury on the need for IMF help too all developing countries that need help and have followed reasonably good economic policies, without simply labeling policies as good or bad in an oversimplified way. Decisions should he says reflect the widespread need for fiscal stimulus in te face of collapsing demand for exports and declining private expenditures. And here also IMF resources are close to $200 billion and the needs of developing countries are estimated between $500 billion and $800 billion. China and the Gulf states need to step in and steps taken quickly to associate them in a more substanital way till improvements are made in IMF governance.He is looking for help in weeks not months. Dervis points to the need for fairness in eligibility criteria for help with help not limited to countries with political clout or systemic importance, wheras other countries have to engage in protracted negotiations with intrusive conditions such as those which raise interest rates in the face of collapsing demand as in the past. ...

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German banks hold $28 billion euros or $37 billion in Greek bonds according to Barclays Capital using IMF data. This debt is now rated as junk by Standard and Poor's since last week. Just one bank, Hypo Real Estate, now owned by the German government after a bailout has $10.5 billion of Greek bonds. This gives a new twist to what is happening in Greece, with Germany involved through the support its own banks would need if Greece defaulted and these bonds become worthless. Total debt holdings of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain for example at Hypo Real Estate is $52 billion. France is also heavily involved through its banks. It has $67 billion in holdings, including $9 billion held by the Bank of France, according to Barclays. According to BIS data American banks hold $16.6 billion in Greek debt. Even the healthy large Spanish banks like Santander have their problems, with Santander having $64 billion of assets in Portugal, according to analysts at Nomura in London. In Spain most of the bad debt problems are concentrated in the midsize banks, but if Portugal were to take a hit then the large banks would be affected adversely....

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Times of London View in 2025- Labour would be wise to follow Merz of Germany's approach to illegal migrants and Farage's proposals need a hearing even if with a pinch of salt. Labour says The Times of London would be wise to take the get-tough approach of Germany's Merz.

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Ma Jun, economist who worked for the IMF, World Bank, and Deutsche Bank is the Chief Economist of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in April 2014.

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VW's Scout Motors plans in 2026 to sell direct to buyers. A Scout Motors VP says of VW's plans- “We have heard over and over again, ‘Please give me an alternative. You see that there is very little trust in auto dealers today.”  Dealers have lobbied to have the laws in US set so that no one else but dealers can sell cars. Yet this may be becoming an outdated way to sell cars if car makers can provide good service over 10 years to buyers and make the whole process of buying and owning a car a pleasant experience for owners. It is far from that today and the experience is not one that is consistent in quality and have ease of use as the experience varies with each dealer and can change with a single dealer over time, quality is not assured.

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India received $135 billion in remittances in 2024-25 from the 18.5 million Indian diaspora, of which 10 million live in the Middle East region sending $51 billion a year. This finances the merchandise trade deficit.  In UAE alone there are 247,000 Indian students and immigrant labor is the main labor supply in the Gulf kingdoms.  Crude oil of 25-30 million barrels is on the seas as inventory to which India has access making crude oil supplies not an issue for the short term. Indian refinery production for export can also be adjusted if needed. India has received a 100 day exemption to import Russian oil from the US since the Gulf war began easing concerns for crude oil supplies. Situation for LPG is more complicated. India has used the Chabahar port to ship supplies of aid to Afghanistan on an overland route which will not operate till the tensions ease. 

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Washington Post Editorial Board on the importance of federal workforce being based on performance and laying off or force reduction of  underperforming workers, not protecting workers with seniority. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) of the US government has taken a sensible action, says The Post in proposing to federal agencies that they layoff low performers first. Under the Biden administration the longest serving employees often the highest paid were not laid off, even if they were not productive. Agencies reduced workforce based on a complicated formula that heavily weighted seniority. The new rule will give performance the largest weighting. As OPM puts it: “By elevating performance in the order of retention, the employees who are best contributing to the mission will be more likely to be retained during restructuring.” Department of Government Efficiency government cuts were for 90% of the 2025 cuts due to voluntary programs such as buyouts, says The Post.  ...

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Signs that Turkey's economy is growing and consuming beyond its capacity. The current account deficit is now at 8%, and foreign credit is helping finance the boom. General purpose consumer loans are growing rapidly- at 42% in 2010, and at 61% on average from 2005 to 2008- according to Standard Unlu, an Istanbul based investment bank. Banks are known to send text messages to borrowers if they qualify, so that the money can be picked up at the bank branch. Turkey has gone through two boom bust cycles- in 1994 and in 2001. The central bank of Turkey has increased the level of interest free deposits banks must keep at the central bank, a move designed to reduce lending. However Turkey's younger generation of consumers are on a spending binge, and access to personal loans is easy. Signs of an asset bubble are easy to find. A 24 acre plot in Istanbul's city center sold for $33.3 million.

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S. Korea's household debt is now 155% of GDP, according to the OECD. For the last ten years the household debt is growing at 13 percent, double the rate of GDP growth. Korea was not affected to the same extent as other countries by the 2008 financial crisis. As a result household debt continues to grow rapidly. The household debt to disposable income reached 140% in the U.S. before the 2008 financial crisis, according to the IMF. Spain reached a level of 130% before the crisis, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. The Financial Services Commission in S. Korea has taken steps to control this- by imposing limits on bank lending, tighter credit checks by banks, and incentives for shifting to fixed rate mortgages. About 95% of mortgages in S. Korea are adjustable rate mortgages. Housing loan rules in S. Korea require loans to not exceed half of the value of the house, and annual payments of principal and interest cannot exceed 40% of the owners income. This effectively insulates the banks from the effects of a housing bubble. One of the effect of the 1997 financial crisis in S. Korea when it turned to the IMF for assistance, is the relaxing of controls on interest rates to encourage spending in a country that encouraged saving. The result is the growth of a nonbank sector which is not subject to central government regulation by the Financial Supervisory Service. The non-banks are regulated only by local governments and can charge upto 39% compared to 4-6% at banks. Non-banks are also allowed to turn in their licenses and operate charging even higher rates. Each year about a 1000 nonbanks from 18,500 such banks in 2007 are joining the black market according to the Consumer Loan Finance Association, showing the size of the problem of black market lending to low income borrowers. S. Korea has mostly relied on growing GDP to control the situation, but slowing growth could lead to unsustainable levels of household debt....

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National Security Adviser Bolton says U.S. withdrawal from Syria depends on a number of factors, after president Trump qualified his earlier statement on withdrawal. 

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Simon Johnson and Peter Boone say not taking forceful action with the large banks- taking them through bankruptcy and restructuring procedures as advocated by senior Federal Reserve officials like Peter Hoenig- will only lead to irreversible damage. The current Geithner-Summers policy being followed by the Obama administration is simply to hope that by fiscal stimulus and economic recovery the banks may be brought to sustained profits and be able to muddle through their financial problems. This Johnson argues is not likely to happen and the cost will be higher debt levels for America, irreversible damage as America faces low debt and financially stronger countries in Asia and sees its position in the world weaken. The muddle through policies for banks of the Obama administration have little prospects in the face of an IMF estimated $275 billion shortfall in capital on balance sheets at large banks (from the IMF Global Financial stability Report). Without aggressive action on the banks America's recovery and renewal will only delayed....

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John Taylor looks one step ahead of the March 2012 Greece bailout and sets up the most plausible scenario for the future. He says the risks of contagion were always exaggerated from the beginning- a planned default or restructuring of debt such as happened in Argentina in 2001, does not have the contagion risks associated with a chaotic and unplanned default as in Russia in 1998. Predicability in policy makes a huge difference, says Taylor. The European banks which stood to lose from writedowns exaggerated the fears of contagion- a process that always occurs for people who are adversely affected by writedowns- resulting in top officials in the European Union delaying the unavoidable serious restructuring. It was not until Chancellor Merkel handed Charles Dallara, who negotiated for the European banks, a note stating a demand for 50% bondholder writedown, on October 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, did any serious writedown of debt begin. Merkel told Dallara: "this is my last offer." The July 2011 summit by contrast had only a 10% bondholder writedown in the agreement, when insolvency not illiquidity was the real issue. Walker Forelle and Meichtry, give a detailed account of what happened in the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 30, 2011. The important thing for Greece, says Taylor, is for what the IMF calls "growth enhancing structural reforms" - greater reliance on private markets, incentives, rule of law. He says this bailout won't work because IMF growth forecasts do not reflect the rapid shrinking of the Greek economy. Antonis Samaras, leader of the major opposition party, is in favor of pro-growth measures and has stated his desire to change the agreement. The 130 billion euro bailout provides 90 billion euros for recapitalizing Greece's banks, and financing the budget. This puts Greece in a situation where the political leaders win voter support by discarding the conditions from the Northern EU nations and come with a plan that is better suited for Greece. The EU in this scenario would cut off further bailout funds to Greece. Taylor sees this as the better outcome for Greece than the current situation, which leaves Greece no hope for growth, and also for the EU by getting out of bailouts that have little prospect of working. It would be difficult but doable for Greece says Taylor, because interest payments would be low and Greek banks would be recapitalized after the current March 2012 bailout. ...

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See the World Economic Outlook November 2007 which talks about this phenomenon in Chapter 5 on the moderating influences in the global economic cycle, the drop in volatility in the global economy, and the expansion of the economy being across most countries in the global economy. Is this a period or a phase the global economy is going through as most emerging economies and developing countries are improving living standards and developing infrastructure, or will it last for several decades with broad sustained economic growth and foreign trade. Some smaller crises are to be expected for example the stock bubbles in China and India(?) will pop if this bubble phenomena continues in these countries. The pressures for expression of public opinion and environmental degradation in China are further challenges and at some point China's development might slow to a more sustainable longer term rate. Will India then pick up as it urbanizes and develops its manufacturing industry?

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This report on Bangladesh politics and economy is from The Guardian July 14, 2019. In 2009 the Awami League party under Sheikh Hasina contested the election in a Grand Alliance with Gen. Ershad's Jatiya Party winning an absolute majority of the seats. Since then Sheikha Hasina has been prime minister through 4 elections maintaining economic growth through the garment industry till the pandemic and disrupted supply chains hit Bangladesh hard leading to its debt burden doubling in 3 years. This led to turning to the IMF in 2022  with reserves down to $23 billion and student protests over lack of jobs. A second wave of protests led to her ouster in August 2024. This report by Derek Brown in The Guardian shows the changing situation in Bangladesh in the 1980's and 1990's after independence in 1971 following the India-Pakistan 1971 war. Zia Khaled of the BNP and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League were alternately in power with periods of rule by the Army under Ershad contesting elections as the Jatiya party when the two parties failed to govern effectively. This went on from 1996 till 2009 when Sheikh Hasina began what would be four terms in office for 15 years. The economy was improving by 2019. And then Covid hit - the pandemic had serious effects on the foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh, Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies. Only in India with the efforts of prime minister Modi was the economy put on a sustained growth path, corruption prevented by the personal example of Modi's leadership, and a state led development focus achieved using the example Modi had set in Gujarat as its chief minister for 15 years. The rest of South Asia lacked such firm and decisive leadership that is similar in its focus to the transformation of first Japan and China into leading industrialized nations.  In 2022 Bangladesh followed Sri Lanka and Pakistan in going to the IMF. By 2023 the foreign exchange reserves had declined to $23 billion. In 2024 to $19 billion. Garment economy dependent Bangladesh was seeing the effects of supply chain disruption and decrease in earnings from exports. In 2024 student protests on joblessness and frustration at economic prospects led to the ouster of the Hasina government.  ...

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This article from the John Hopkins University experts in Chinese investment in Africa say the charges that China was setting up debt levels for African countries beyond sustainability levels set by IMF are not founded except in a few instances. Only in Congo, Zambia and Djibouti does China account for over half of public debt, says the report. This comes as criticism is mounting about African countries being burdened with debt from Chinese financing of projects and loans.

In 17 countries identified as vulnerable including Ethiopia and Cameroon, China was the largest creditor but yet more than half of the debt was held by western banks and other lenders. In Mozambique it was Credit Suisse bank. In other words China is not preying intentionally to put countries into financial distress from debt buildup.

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Emma Soames says its OK that the picture of Winston Churchill is being replaced on 5 pound banknote by the Bank of England. After all nothing is forever. She should know as she is the granddaughter of Winston Churchill. In this BBC video she tells the interviewer from BBC that if replaced by an animal it should be one that is "a brave animal, a courageous animal ,and  a lovable animal, the Winston Churchill I knew. Don't you?" Churchill ended up on the banknote in 2016 using a 1941 Karsh photograph. It is part of an update that removes Jane Austin the novelist, and Alan Turing the scientist and puts in Birtish wildlife to change themes. We asked who makes the decision to choose wildlife compared to say British gardens which are more famous around the world and a suitable theme that Britons can point to with pride?

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Denning uses the Brazilian government's scrapping of a 6% tax on foreign purchases of bonds to slow the slide in the value of the Brazilian currency, the Real, to point to the changed situation today for Brazil, India, Turkey and S. Africa. Current account deficits in these countries are high, and foreign investors sentiment about emerging markets may be affected by the street protests in Turkey, reducing inflows of capital. The mining worker protests in S. Africa and the street protests in Turkey, have led to a decline in the currencies of the two countries. The Fed's quantitative easing program may be coming to a close, which would reduce the flows of capital to emerging market countries. Turkey has seen a boom in domestic credit supported partly by foreign capital inflows. The current account deficit to GDP ratio for Turkey is expected to be 7.28% in 2013, for S. Africa 6.46%, and Brazil 3.25%, according to IMF forecast.

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Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer meets Russian leader Putin for 90 minutes and tells him that he has "lost the war morally" and that "in war both sides are losers." As shown by the World Bank today the Russian economy could be impacted by somewhere between 11% to 25% loss for its economy, for Ukraine the loss would be 45%. For Belarus, Moldova and former soviet republics of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Krygyz, the loss to their economies about 30% because the region is interconnected with remittances and other trade impacted. These would be devastating economic losses. The entire region in this part of Europe would be suffering losses. Many of the countries would have to turn to the IMF or the World Bank to remain solvent. One of Russian leader Putin's goals was to build a rival economic bloc from former Soviet republics and regions. Instead the invasion has done just the opposite. The economic losses will have impoverished the whole region.   ...

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Although the Russian economy has weathered the Ukraine war with 3.6% growth estimated by Rossstat and 3% by IMF in 2023, this comes with the economy dependent on heavy military spending. Military spending on defense budget increases to $119 billion in 2024, and increase of an astounding 90% from 2021. It has boosted wages in construction and aided certain industrial regions near Moscow and St Petersburg, and boosted manufacturing with more products made at home. The oil and gas revenues decreased by 23% in 2023 over 2022. After 2 years of war and particularly after contraction in 2022 the Russian economy is recovering and has surprised most forecasters. The problem with military industrial complex growth is that it leads to uneven growth with negect of some areas. In Russia the reduced access to western advanced technology is compensated by increase in technological capacity of countries such as China. A bigger problem is the loss of human resources during the war in Ukraine, and Russians who left the country seeking better lives in other countries.  ...

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As Turkey's trade ties with the other countries in the Middle East and Asia increase there is less support for joining the European Union. In 2004 12.5% of Turkey's exports went to the Middle East, today this is up to 20%. This figure is expected to increase after the Arab Spring and new economic opportunities in the region, according to one business group leader. Turkey's exports to Europe in 2010 were about 56%. As Cyprus takes the rotating presidency of the European Union in July 2012, Turkey plans to boycott the presidency and freeze negotiations. In 1974 Turkey invaded Cyprus and set up a rival government in the Turkish part of Cyprus. The talks may be abandoned if no progress is made by 2014, according to Turkish officials. Turkish public opinion is also shifting away from favoring joining the EU. Surveys by the German Marshall Fund show 38% of Turks saw membership as a good thing in 2010, compared to 73% in 2004.