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The American consumer still spends money on bigger ticket items like luxury cars and iPads. The rich are largely shielded from this recession and one might forget that even with a 10% unemployment rate, says one economist, there are still 90% with jobs, about 75% confident of keeping them, and half with liquidity. So there is spending which is erratic. A sort of EKG type recovery in which it keeps changing all the time, with no consistent pattern. Consumers who are uncertain about the future and facing tight budgets save on toothpaste and basic consumer items, while other consumers continue to spend. A Consumer Reports survey shows consumers willing to spend on appliances and electronics. American Express conducted its survey of consumers and found consumers behind on their savings plans and making impulse purchases, or going outside their means to buy things. One analyst who follows the savings rate closely thinks consumers are spending because the stock market recovered after the 2008 crisis, and as the stock market falters consumers will start saving more. And Prof. Dan Ariely of Duke University, a behavioural economist, says that people who fear losing money in stock market fluctuations feel better spending their money, this way a least they have something to show for it. One reason apple's IPad has done so well is that consumers see it as a compromise purchase, they can give themselves a little something as a reward and still not have to buy a Mac which costs a lot more. And in the patterns of American consumer behaviour experts point to behaviour where consumers will save at Target by buying cheaper brands or buy at Dollar stores for things like paper towels and detergents, and then go out and spend on something pricey to reward themselves or have that feel good feeling. So you have this development that sales are up 9% this year at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minneapolis, USA's largest mall. People look at price tags and shop for deals, they cut spending in places and spend in other areas. ...

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Brinkmauer and Pfister of the German magazine Der Spiegel interview German Chancellor Angela Merkel in September 2017. The interview covers a range of topics from whether Merkel is addicted to power, why she chose to run for a fourth term, revolving door for CDU politicians as lobbyists for the automobile industry, the AfD right wing party, the refugee crisis and the CDU's historic policy of controlled immigration, and whether democracy is losing strength.  In characteristic Merkel fashion the chancellor takes up the idea of her addiction to power by saying she is careful not to let this happen to her by reading critical articles in the press and having her staff bring critical reports. Her discussion with her constituents in her electoral district are also frank and open, more so in 2017. About the idea that Helmut Kohl's fourth term as chancellor being not good for Germany and for the CDU, Merkel responds that she has given it considerable thought. She found that she still has the intellectual curiosity to learn new things, understands that she has much to learn about how the country and the world is changing. This has been decisive in her decision to run.  Merkel believes that someone who has worked in politics should be able to work in private industry following historic practice in Germany. On the government links with the automobile industry Merkel says her approach has been to look at what was best for an industry employing 800,000 people in Germany, yet deplores the diesel emissions cheating at VW. Has democracy lost momentum after the U.S. elections and the refugee crisis? Merkel says democracy is still strong, and that she will do everything to strengthen democracy in Germany and other parts of the world.  Merkel's view is that it is important that there be counterweights in democratic systems. In this way democracy is strong in America, and also in Poland and Hungary. The chancellor cites high voter turnout of 82% in 1998, 79% in 2002, 78% in 2009. Since then she says in 2009 it dropped to 71% and 2013  72%, yet  expects that with the issues in this election people will come out to vote in larger numbers.  For many years Merkel is seen as co-opting the issues of the left parties and the SPD, being careful to move to the centre. Der Spiegel puts this idea forward to the chancellor by asking her if she is the best SPD chancellor Germany ever had.  In her matter of fact style Merkel responds that voters do not think of it this way, simply expect her to her job as best as she can possibly do it.       ...

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The scale and sophistication of a recent cyberattack on U.S. government agencies surprised even experienced security experts. The strategy was zeroing in on a weak link in the software supply chain U.S. businesses and government institutions rely on, the use of a network management software called Orion.

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Fisher and Taub in NYT give a brief history of Venezuelan politics and government since the 1950's to help readers understand today's economic and political crisis under president Maduro. How did a country with huge oil resources end up with depleted cash reserves to the point of creating shortages of basic goods on supermarket shelves, how did inflation reach over 700%, and how did the economy contract by over 10%, by some estimates close to 20%, in 2016? Venezuela's story is a reminder that populist movements do not hold the answer to political or economic problems, as they create corruption of their own as new groups of people try to perpetuate themselves in power, and new economic problems as they try to win favor with their own support base. Also through economic mismanagement worsened by economic changes such as oil prices or some other adverse development in the global economy. Internal divisions means the capacity of the country to respond is weakened. Brazil has shown the problems of corruption with new political groups and the weakening of government finances. Venezuela is the extreme example of how a lot can go wrong over time after the initial response to a new populist group is positive as it was in Venezuela in 1998, even with advantage of rich natural resources. Change that fragments a country and polarizes a country instead of pulling together the country's human talent around a program that all groups agree to support, is a signal of future problems. The rule of law is an essential component not just of democracy, but of economic development and progress of any country. These are the lessons of Venezuela for today. Economic crises in the eighties led to loss of public confidence in the two main political parties which alternated in power since the founding of democracy in 1958. In 1998 a military officer named Chavez won the election on the platform of returning power to the people and reducing corruption. Chavez reforms initially were popular. Popular protests in 2002 led to the military briefly taking power before returning power back to Chavez. This led to Chavez moving further towards consolidating power leading to a polarization of society. The oil company workers who went on strike were fired replaced by Chavez supporters and oil funds were diverted to popular programs. In the process Chavez isolated Venezuela from the world economy, leading to lack of foreign investment, and Venezuela falling behind other countries in Latin America, even though it had large oil resources. To retain control of the streets this report shows Chavez helped organize the colectivos or local supporters organized as vigilante groups, which has led to further polarization. Corruption in the military and with the colectivos has led to power being fragmented between different groups. The oil companies fund reserves were depleted by corruption depriving Venezuela of an essential cushion as oil prices dropped. Chavez died of health problems with Maduro winning the election in April 2013 by 50.6% of the vote. The parliamentary elections led to the opposition parties winning by a landslide in December 2015. The current problems with daily street protests stems from the economic crisis, with inflation as high as 700% and shortages of basic goods, the economy declining by over 10% in 2016. The uncontrolled printing of money has fueled rampant inflation.The efforts by president Maduro to nullify the powers of Congress in an effort to control the country and override Congress, has worsened the discontent with the government.   ...

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This report in the WSJ shows American households are acting prudently by building up savings of $1.6 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As much of these savings are not distributed evenly across the population, and coming back from a period after the 2009 financial crisis when savings in the lower classes had dropped to alarming levels, this saving is good for the future of the American people by building a path to sustained growth for the long term. Readers responses to this report show their dismay at calling savings hoarding, dismay at the idea that saving 3-6 months of expenses would be considered prudent when 1-2 years would be a minimum  and 2-3 years desirable would be considered decent protection in times like the last 2 decades of manmade disasters (shipping out American manufacturing, 2009 financial crisis) or nature driven disasters (the pandemic). For the Biden administration the saving also provides hope that the mistakes of the last two decades and the 2009 period can be avoided. By targeting the $1 trillion in infrastructure spending plan to projects that build synergy throughout the economy and generate more growth for every dollar spent in a long term Renewal America project. Recent WSJ reports show this is happening. The $2 trillion Families and Workers Plan works in a similar way to bring hope in improving the quality of life in America through children's education, childcare, paid leave, health care, affordable housing, climate change investments. The public in America is showing equal prudence by aligning the savings to this approach to set America on a path of long term renewal and development that could be sustained to 2030 or 2035. This will also enable the investments needed to build America's role in the world and help its partners in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa take the same approach for sustained and balanced growth into the next decade.  ...

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The riots in Athens as the Greek parliament voted to support the passage of an EU plan of austerity cuts, including a 22% cut in the minimum wage, pension cuts and large cuts in the number of government employees. The Popular Orthodox Rally party in the governing Greek coalition withdrew its support, 22 members of the Socialist party and 21 members of the New Democracy party in parliament opposed the measures. Elections are planned for April, 2012. Antonio Samaras, head of the New Democracy party, told parliament that he supported the measure only so that Greece could continue using the euro and have "the possibility tomorrow to negotiate and change the policy that is being imposed on us today."

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In the interests of a stable government and for rapid development in the state on an unprecedented scale the position of Chief Minister was given to a smaller party with 51 members in the Assembly of Maharashtra. The BJP party the larger party in the new coalition has 106 members in the State Assembly. Mr. Eknath Shinde was sworn in as Chief minister and Mr. Fadnavis of the BJP was made Deputy chief minister based on the understanding of leaders in the federal government in New Delhi on the best way to move Maharashtra forward as a leader in economic and infrastructure development in India. Maharashtra and the capital city of Bombay once the commercial capital of British India has a difficult history of post independence politics. With Nehru's Congress party giving way to George Fernandes trade unionism after 1967 and after 1986 a movement led by Bal Thackeray that sought to give local Marathi youth jobs preference in Mumbai. Lacking the capital, technology and the industrial expertise for development on an American scale, much of this political arrangement has failed to meet the growing aspirations of the young people of Maharashtra and of India. These reasons motivated the federal government to put more emphasis on the "karya karta" or "good worker" principle itself than on the position of chief minister. Much of the rapid development will take place under the leadership of the most competent IAS Indian civil service officers selected for the largest infrastructure projects and the leaders of Indian industry, making the old conception of chief minister redundant. The focus shifts to who can get things done to meet aspirations for Maharashtra 2030 and how it will compare with Uttar Pradesh 2030, or Tamilnadu 2030. How will Metro rail, Bullet trains and Semiconductor Parks, Logistics networks and Exports in the new supply chain the US and EU is setting up in Asia, how will all this look in the 3 states in 2030? This will become clear in 2023 as development accelerates to what India needs. ...

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Indian rating agency Crisil says expeditious settlement of stressed assets in India's banking system is needed for the private sector to play its part in the country's infrastructure development. In the last 4 years much of the effort in infrastructure was undertaken by the government. Crisil CEO Ashu Suyash, says Rupees 50 lakh crore needs to be allocated for capital investment in infrastructure for the 5 year period 2018- 2022. About Rupees 3000 crore investment per day is required. In addition to improving the banking system, other actions needed are new private-public partnership efforts, front ending of projects, and a deepening of the infrastructure financing system. Infrastructure investments have suffered from lack of investment in India and this should be a top priority for the government, say experts. This includes tapping into pension and insurance funds under new arrangements. The central government has announced a 7 lakh crore investment plan to build 83,000 kilometres of highways by 2022. Crisil has developed an "investability index" to track and measure the attractiveness of such projects.   ...

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Sadanand Dhume points out the change in women's fertility rate that will add one more factor to improvement in the quality of life and access to resources in India. This comes as development projects, infrastructure, logistics, is being built in the north at a pace unprecedented in history. Women's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in India. Because of the youthful population with median age of 28 in India population will peak at 1.6 billion in 2050 making India the largest country by population in the world- with one in 6 people on the planet in India. From a fertility rate of 6 in 1960 in India, with each woman having 6 babies, it is down to 3 by 2005 and 2 in 2021. This shows the effect of sustained development over time, which is also evident in agricultural production where India is now self sufficient in food. For many years the Hindi speaking heartland suffered from poor governance and mismanagement of the economy- the region that covers Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 250 million, Bihar 131 million and Madhya Pradesh 86 million, for a total of 467 million about the size of North America or the European Union. It is this region that is now pushing a development agenda today more than any other region in India with the joint effort of both the federal and state, local, governments in a way that is unprecedented in Indian history. Because of the Gati Shakti Master Plan, Atman Nirbhar Make in India Plan, and push for local is vocal, the infrastructure efforts in building roads, highways, airports and logistics, the advances in digitization and use of new technologies, there is an added boost with new synergies in this development effort. A new airport and logistics setup at Noida in Uttar Pradesh will be the largest in Asia, a new Ganga Expressway is planned, and many development projects are being launched in Varanasi, Prayagraj and other cities in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Leaders at the federal level Mr. Modi, Mr. Piyush Goyal, and at the state level Mr. Adityanath, are pushing the development projects at a pace that will make these areas the fastest developing in India, and quite possibly the world, in a the next 3-5 years. ...

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For the eurozone economies the latter part of the year should see weakening growth and this is also reflected in the new IMF outlook see the link to this. The weakening growth should also reduce the threat of inflation, So interest rate reductions could be expected in the latter part of the year from the ECB which should align ECB and Fed policy.

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After 3 decades the US is finally offering the scale and scope of infrastructure investment overseas that is needed. President Biden says $200 billion will be invested in infrastructure overseas over 5 years at meetings of the G-7 in the Alps south of Munich in Germany. Along with its partners and with government and private investments the size of the investment will reach $600 billion over 5 years to 2027. This will include projects such as $2 billion for solar energy in Angola, and a $600 million submarine telecommunications cable connecting France to Singapore.

It is a combination of direct government aid and private investment. President Biden sees Build Back Better World as the overseas version of his Build Back Better America for workers and families in the US for which Congress has authorized $1 trillion in infrastructure and climate change initiatives in the US.

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This report by Juan Montes in the WSJ shows how much Lopez Obrador has changed since he lost by a small margin in the 2006 Mexico presidential election. His campaign manager, Tatiana Clouthier, says broadening his appeal to women, evangelicals, middle class Mexicans, rich and poor, is needed for Obrador to win in 2018. In elections in 2006 and 2012 Obrador continued to be seen as the candidate only of the working class. An effort is being made to change this image. Obrador, 64 years old from the party of the left, formed his own party in 2010 after leaving the PRD party. He is a former mayor of Mexico City. Five recent polls show Obrador leading by an average of 7.5 points over Ricardo Analya, the PAN candidate for president which now has the support of the PRD. PAN on the right and PRD on the left are other opposition parties. PAN party formed the government under Felipe Calderon before the current PRI president Nieto now tainted by corruption scandals became president in 2012. If he were to win Obrador would change the way Mexico was governed for 5 decades. His first step would be to review the 91 exploration contracts given by the government under the Nieto administration to check for signs of graft. Corruption is a key platform of the parties running against the current government of president Nieto, for both Obrador and the PAN/PRD alliance candidate Anaya. Obrador says he would keep balanced budget deficits and respect the central bank's autonomy. The shift would be from the current export model that Mexico has supported for 35 years, to one based on import substitution policies, higher salaries, and more government spending for education, jobs programs, healthcare, new oil refineries. With the Trump administration's stance on trade and immigration Mexicans are now showing anger and frustration, with 75% of Mexicans in a Reforma poll looking for change. Both the PAN/PRD and its new face in Ricardo Analya, 38 years old, and the Obrador party see corruption and with it in the Mexican context the rule of law as a key issue.  ...

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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Neal Wolin, Michael Barr and Diana Farrell who had roles in the Clinton administration are now key figures in the effort to get financial reform legislation through Congress against resistance from well funded lobbying groups. Farrell is one of two deputies to Lawrence Summers, Obama's senior economic advisor. Michael Barr is Assistant Treasury Secretary for financial institutions. Both Wolin and Barr worked at Treasury during the Clinton administration. After Clinton left office Wolin went to work for Hartford Financial Group and Barr went to teach at the University of Michigan. Barr has helped formulate much of the policy-making.

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The closest parallel of the campaigns for president in 2016, 2020, 2024 are in the campaign of 1952. The difference is that Eisenhower was widely respected in both parties and had fought the war against Germany and Japan alongside Gen.George Marshall under president Harry Truman. His name was put on the ballot in New Hampshire but he himself preferred not to run or run as an Independent according to JFK. The Eastern Establishment including Governor Dewey of NY pushed for Eisenhower while the Midwestern States more isolationist in their approach supported Robert Taft. Eisenhower also did not choose Senator Nixon and he was chosen to win support in California and as a compromise with the Taft group. Eisenhower did not at any time approve of the reckless criticism tactics of McCarthy, though he remained silent on the issue not wanting to distract from the need to find a new approach to ending the war in Korea and with the Soviets than the one offered by Truman. There was also the weariness of the people with the wars.   ...

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DW. com looks at the controversial effort of privage equity firms Blackstone and Carlyle to buy stakes in Bundesliga soccer clubs. Approval of 24 of 36 clubs sets out a plan to attract 1 billion euros of funding for digitalization, internationalization, in return for an 8% share of TV rights revenues for a period of 20 years. Experts say any effort to take international preference for the Premier League will be difficult. There is also the 50+1 rule in Germany where the ownership stays with the clubs not investors, so that the ticket prices are affordable for the club fans and the clubs belong to the fan base. For the fans and locals the situation is better without private equity.

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To give time for the fragile banking system to adjust, and for consumers not to feel the impact of a sharp and sudden devaluation, the government of Russia has used up one third of its reserves shoring up the ruble. Now with currency traders and others testing the limits of the new band in which the ruble is trading, a lower limit of 41 rubles against a basket of euros and dollars is eroding. Last week the rate was at a low of 36 rubles to a dollar. Foreign exchange reserves have dropped from a high of $600 billion to $385 billion. See the link to the sudden erosion of sovereign wealth funds around the world including the Gulf countries. Raising rates aggressively and tightening liquidity too much would hurt the economy, so there is a testing game between currency dealers hoping to profit from the ruble's fall and the Russian government and central bank. Memories of the 1998 collapse of the ruble are still fresh in people's minds, and the government wants to prevent anything like that happening. This has almost become a raison de etre of the Putin government, to prevent the poverty and humiliation after the collapse of the economy during that early post-Soviet period. Most of the money that the government is spending to boost the banking system and the economy is flowing into the currency market instead. Says an economist at Alfa Bank in Moscow, all the rubles out there have been converted into dollars....

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Daily Show host, Jon Stewart, interviews US President Obama. Obama told Stewart that "it was fair" to say that Obama had done his work, in Stewart's words, in "a political manner that has papered over a foundation that is corrupt." Obama says "we got 90% of what we wanted," which reflects a huge gap between how he is seen by people in the U.S., and how he sees his first 2 years in office. Obama's defensive responses, and no efforts to connect with the youthful audience on the Daily Show. Stewart points to the gap between the "audacity" in the rhetoric of Obama, and the "timid" nature of his administration. Stewart made particular reference to the hiring of Larry Summers, a former Clinton administration official, to guide the President on economic policy and the dealings with the banks.

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Bank of New York Mellon is informing large clients that it will charge them for holding cash. It is a sign of the anxiety in global financial markets that corporations and investors are putting away cash in their bank accounts rather than investing the money.

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Life in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, is shown alongside as the city struggles with most of its infrastructure destroyed in the war. The $61.5 billion aid to Ukraine was passed in the US Congress only with the efforts of Mitch McConnell who never gave up even in February and March when bills passed in the Senate were stalled in the House as the former president and some of the Republican base wavered. Mitch McConnell says now after the vote of 79 to 18 that passed  in the Senate that "at times I felt I was the only Reagan Republican left." At a meeting with the president in late February he wanted to start the meeting because he says-" I wasn't trying to convince Johnson of anything other than we had a time problem. I did't think we had time to fool around." Speaker Mike Johnson had wavered in calling for a House vote of a Senate bill on Ukraine aid after the former president had declined support. "He had a spine of steel and wouldn't give in to pressure from those in our caucus who did not have the depth of understanding of the stakes and who had reached different conclusions" says  Susan Collins who visited Ukraine in 2022 with McConnell. She calls him "steadfast and unwavering." Pat Schumer says "I give him a huge amount of credit. we were shoulder to shoulder on this." As he stays in the Senate till his term ends in January 2027, Mitch McConnell can look back on two decades of leadership in Senate realizing he had added nine Republican votes to get it 31 Republicans for Ukraine aid at a critical time. He says of two rules he has followed for 18 years - you take a lot of arrows, and yet you never speak about your members on or off the record, and in that sense he is free to pursue his own interests and has a lot of latitude now till 2027. He will be sorely needed in the Senate as the voice of experience and depth of understanding.   ...

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States in Germany that have imposed quarantine and lockdown are Bavaria, Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate., Hamburg, Lower Saxony, and Hesse. People are asked to stay inside unless going to the doctor or supermarket.  Bavaria where Munich is located reported few violations. Chancellor Merkel is meeting with state premiers on March 21 to decide on a nationwide lockdown as in Spain and Italy. 

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Foreign student enrollment of about 20% or 25% sounds normal, at 40% or 50% this is unusual and suggests American educational resources are being used to a disproportionate degree in a way that is not putting American students first. 

40 percent or close to 40% Universities are Carnegie Mellon, Columbia, John Hopkins

35% or close to that Universities are NYU, Rochester

30% or close to that Universities are Caltech Chicago, Harvard and Penn

Close to 25% are Duke, Cornell and Rice, Stanford, Princeton, Yale and Northwestern, Georgia Tech

Close to 20% are Dartmouth, Georgetown, Emory, UC Berkeley and Davis,Michigan

 

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The US death rates were 15% above normal compared to other European countries at 9-12% above normal for the pandemic. The US deaths exceed 1 million in 2020 and 2021. India's death rate was about 26% above normal, Brazil's 24% above normal compared to 41% for Mexico, even though Brazil made the most headlines. Uneven vaccination in states in the northern and southern US led to the high US death rate and 1 million deaths.

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Kevin Rudd of Australia is trying to promote an Asia centred foreign policy giving a greater role for India, China and Indonesia in world affairs.