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An exceptional account by Melissa Eddy of how Germans are reacting to the German government's underinvestment in childcare centers. Germany's cabinet approved a bill that provides $190 monthly child care allowance for mothers who opt not to use day care centers provided by the government. This is supported by the Bavarian party, Christian Social Union, on the grounds that it gives an alternative to mothers to use private day care or nanny care. In practice many of the mothers using the allowance are expected to be lower paid workers who may decide not to work. The government has budgeted $500 million for the allowance for 2013. This is opposed by all opposition parties , and in a rare show of unity by business employer associations and unions, both say it "creates a false incentive to quit work." Axel Plunnecke of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, says studies show low income families are among those who benefit most from early childhood education. About 100,000 lower qualified and lower paid workers could see this as attractive and quit working. The western part of Germany lacks enough child day care slots, so this is seen as not investing enough where its most needed, and Germany lags behind other countries like France in day care centers. The government is investing $15 million over five years to expand the number of child care centers. The goal is to have 750,000 child care slots by 2013, according to Ms. Kristina Schroeder, the family minister, herself a mother giving birth while in office. The measure was vigorously debated and controversial from the beginning because most many Germans see the $15 million years over 5 years as underinvestment in vital educational infrastructure. The $500 million is better invested in building modern day care facilities, they believe, especially because the children from lower income mothers not benefitting from daycare facilities will still need educational help, and German industry needs more women in the labor force to be competitive. Five years ago under reforms of parental support the 3 years of help to mothers was reduced to 1 year, resulting in an increase in the numbers of women working from 32% in 2002 to 40% by 2011, according to the Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth....

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The Reagan Memo released by WSJ and the June op-ed in WSJ by Glenn Hubbard, a Romney economc advisor, point to the way an economc recovery like that accomplished under Reagan could be achieved if Romney takes office. Krugman points out that contrary to thinking Reagan actually increased spending, partly through defense programs and partly achieved by federal transfers to state governments that increased spending when the deficit had not reached the levels it has today. Also important is the cause of the economic slump when Reagan took office, which was deliberately caused by Federal Reserve increasing interest rates to control surging inflation. The Federal Reserve reversed policy and lowered rates during Reagan's term in office and supported the other growth inducing policies of the Reagan administration. Improving business confidence by promoting expectations for consistent growth and stable policy was part of the game plan of the Reagan economic team led by George Shultz, as is evident from the memo. Krugman says the situation is different this time as interest rates are approaching zero and the U.S. is recovering from a housing bubble at the same time that spending by local and state governments is declining as the Stimuus spending of 2009 fades. Under Reagan in the first quarter of 1984, and for Obama in the first quarter of 2012- compared to 4 years earlier, real per capita government spending was 14.4% higher than previously for Reagan and 6.4% for Obama. ...

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The political impact of passing the climate change bill with a vote of 219 to 212, with 43 democrats voting against and no Republican support. The Republicans see this as asignature issue for midterm elections and the democrats welcome that.

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How Subaru is going to market to 20-34 age group using Japanese themes and Japanese culture. The car for which these advertising commercials use Japanese themes is the 2008 Impreza WRX which competes with is Volkswagen GTI anf Mazdaspeed 3.

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Energy Conversion Devices, a Michigan company, is providing the solar electric system for the largest rooftop array, 12 megawatts, to a General Motors assembly plant in Zaragoza, Spain. This project uses solar devices manufactured in rolls like carpet runners. Veolia Environment and Clairvoyant Energy will lease the rooftop space from GM and operate the installation. Spain has become a center for solar installations as it offers large subsidies, 0.42 euros or 66 cents for each kilowatt hour, this is about 5 times the average cost of a kilowatt hour in the USA. Energy Conversion plans to produce 150 megawatts of cell this year and recently raised $400 million an dannounced plans to build cells for 1 gigawatt or 1000 megawatts. Solar arrays on houses are only a few kilowatts and 1 megawatt can run about 1000 window airconditioners simultaneously while the sun is shining.

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This analysis in the NYT shows that Labour won 412 seats in the British Parliament with only one third of the vote, and only 60% of voters participating. And Reform UK of Nigel Farage with 14% of the vote across UK won only 4 seats. The Greens won only 4 seats with 7% of the vote. The Conservatives with 23% of the vote won 120 seats. Labour's share of the youngest vote in the youngest seats actually dropped from 51% to 44%, with votes going to Reform UK and to the Liberal Democrats. Conservatives dropped across the board but still did better with older voters. And the Liberal Democrats astonishingly gained about 60 seats with just a slight increase of votes of only 0.08% increase in votes from 11.6% to 12.2% pushing its seat count from 11 in 2019 to 71 seats in 2024. This is why Keir Starmer has won big yet knows he has alot of work to do and promises stability as well as change that begins today for Britain, a cautious approach that also seeks to make further gains in the future by winning the hearts of the British people and also bringing relief for cost of living to the British public and good government. Building infrastructure and public services will come as Labour wins the confidence of Britons with a larger vote share in the coming years to support sweeping changes that Britain needs for infrastructure health, education and public services. ...

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UK's Keir Starmer makes 6 pledges to the British people- "Living standards should rise so that growth was felt by everyone, everywhere." Real household disposable income per person, GDP per capita by 2029. Build 1.5 million new homes in 5 years and fast track 150 planning decisions on major infrastructure projects. 92% of patients have to wait no more than 18 weeks for routine operations and appointments by March 2029. 29,000 officers for neighborhood policing and stopping anti-social behavior-1 for every 8000 people. 95% of low carbon electricity generation by 2030. 5% gas generation kept in reserve for unanticipated situations. It is Boris Johnson's target from 2022 in contrast to DJT's reverting to oil and gas to 2027 with industry following its continued but slower shift to gas and wind/solar. A pledge on living standards as the goal not growth is what Starmer sees as the dire need today. Growth that would put the UK ahead of all countries in the G7 is put aside for raising living standards for ALL the British people. A recognition that the two can mean very different things. Under the current plan fufilfillment of pledges is seen in the growth rate of 0.5% a year that is set in 2024. ...

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Ekrem Imamoglu, three time elected Mayor of Istanbul follows a career similar to that of Erdogan who became Mayor of Istanbul and was then elected prime minister in 2003, as the administration of the CHP party failed to manage the economy. A period of economic growth followed with increasing foreign investment and Erdogan was reelected till 2013 when he decided to run for president following the term limits for prime minister. At that time his rule had become increasingly authoritarian. He was elected with smaller majorities with no effective opposition leader ,and the Middle East in turmoil with ISIS and Syria's civil war. Erdogan fought a tough election against a civil servant candidate from CHP turning out the nationalist  and conservative vote.in 2020. By this time the economy was having high inflation and his popularity was down, and he won barely with 52% of the vote. By 2019 Ekrem Imamoglu, 47 years, emerged as a more effective opposition leader, winning election for Mayor of Istanbul. He won again in 2024 and is now emerging as an alternative to run the country. Erdogan is 71 years and the world around Turkey has changed with DJT in the US, and Russia- Ukraine peace talks, trade tariffs worldwide, and the investment climate completely different, inflation increasing to 39 percent, and no easy solutions to economic problems. Some of the conservative and small business vote is no longer assured for Erdogan as the economy and Turkey's situation in Europe has changed. ...

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The IMF report on Italy in July 2012 says Italy faces another year of recession. Debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to reach 126% in 2013. One bright spot is that Italy is expected to post a primary surplus by 2013- that is government revenues will cover promised services, excluding interest payments on oustanding bonds of $2 trillion. Because of the recession small shocks could change the outlook says the IMF, and it emphasized the importance of the changes being made to the labor market and for improving competitiveness. These changes need to be implemented early because of elections expected in spring 2013. A key concern is borrowing rates which are near 7% for Italy and Spain. The European Stability Mechanism, the rescue fund, was authorized to make purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds in the June 2012 summit. The ESM becomes operational in the summer of 2012, after the German Constitutional Court makes its ruling about it being legal and after ratification by national governments....

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Chancellor Merkel visits Latvia in August 2014 and calls for a "persistent NATO presence" in the Baltic states. Merkel also visits Ukraine for talks with Ukrainian leaders. Germany is also mediating in the crisis and helped to arrange a meeting between Russian president Putin and Ukraine president Poroshenko in Belarus.

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The percentage of credit card balances owed by subprime customers, according to Keefe Bruyette and Woods, is 30.3% for Bank of America, 29.8% for Capital One, 27.9% for Discover, and 27.3% for Citigroup. The companies ranked by market share in private label cards are GEneral Electric 39.2% and Citigroup 21.7%. All these companies that have turned risky customers into cash cows with hefty fees and interest rates will see much of this disappear with the President's new law banning some of the practices of these companies that hurt consumers. Most of the credit card industry has operated without some of the basic consumer protections one would expect in a highly educated and literate society with democratic governance. Even retailers like Target depend on this for profits. Target which has its own credit card operation earned $355 million in credit finance charges and $87 million in late fees and other revenue in the last fiscal quarter.

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Sarah Kaplan and Bonnie Jo Mount travel to the Seychelles islands to find fossilized corals that tell of melting ice sheets and rising global sea levels from modest rise in temperatures on the earth going back tens of thousands of years. It helps understand how future sea levels can rise. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet could scientists say lead to 24 feet surge in sea levels. 

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Large banks in the U.S. set aside $28 billion by taking hits to second quarter profits to cover loan losses during the pandemic. The banks had granted temporary pauses on payments for mortgages, auto loans and commercial loans to help the recovery. Including other loans for commercial divisions the large banks JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have set aside about $83 billion for loan losses.

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British prime minister Sunak calls for general elections on July 4 at a time when the Tories are behind Labour by well over 20 percentage points. After 15 years in power the Conservative party is facing a British public that is deeply dissatisfied with its performance. Labor's Starmer has added to the popularity of Labour and is expected to form the new government.

 

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$150 billion in subprime writedowns taken $135 bllion to go according to BW and for Citigroup only $21 billion taken and anywhere from $15 billion additional expected or upto $39 billion additional expected in the worst case. he worst is still ahead clearly.