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Climate change study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany published in Nature magazine retracted in December 2025. The study is an example of how such research when not done right can misrepresent situations leading to policy errors. Policy error under such misrepresentation can lead to errors such as a policy that excludes adjustments and a dual response to climate change and cost of living crisis attacking both on two fronts necessary today so soon after a disastrous pandemic and people living in scarcity not able to meet heating bills. What happened is that the study made predictions for 2100- which is impossible to do. Studied 1600 regions in the world. Showed decline of economic output by 62% in 2100. Did not mention that excluding Uzbekistan would make the reduction in growth 23%. It shows how overzealous work in one direction or the other can actually hurt the fight to address climate change and also tackle everday concerns like cost of living crisis. Recent reports in WSJ show how the approach of single focus has hurt economic growth in Germany and hobbled its industries. Other reports show how deprived and less deprived areas in the UK (also in the US) sit by side showing how decades of neglect of manufacturing and outshoring of factories have destroyed jobs and destroyed communities across Europe and the US, making them open to scourge such as fentanyl in the Nation's neighborhoods, and creating a climate of despair that feeds into other fears. Such as the fears of the surge of illegal migration promoted by traffickers and the influx of drug trafficking gangs in the Nation's neighborhoods. Such reports are then used by the World Bank and the Congressional Budget Office and central banks of 90 counties in the coalition Network for Greening of the Financial System, leading to distortions in policy actions, destroying the social consensus needed among wide sectors of the population in democracies in the EU and US and worldwide to address climate change and cost of living crises.  Leonie Wenz, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany says-“We broadly agree with the issues raised, and have made corrections to the underlying economic data and to our methodology to address them. These changes are too substantial for a correction of the original article in Nature.”   ...

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Compared to the Trump Putin meeting in Helsinki when Trump went in casually into the meeting and Putin was late by half an hour, this meeting had a lot of preparation. Jill Biden when asked about it said "Oh my gosh he was overprepared." The meeting with Putin also came after Biden met with the G-7 in Cornwall, UK. He was briefed by EU officials, and had preparation with Blinken and Sullivan  before going into the meeting with Putin.  One result is that the meeting lays the ground for further discussions on many issues. By talking openly and plainly about US expectations from Russia- laying out expectations on cybersecurity and hacking, on arms control, on EU and other issues, the US made it possible to get tangible results. Both sides have an incentive to work for the interests of their countries including preventing another cold war, ensuring cyber security through mutual respect and US response capabilities, and arms control. One of the economic issues related to Nordstream 2 which was settled before the meeting with US respecting the wishes of Germany to go ahead with the project bringing Russian oil and gas through the seas to Germany. ...

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Washington Post Editorial Board on how to bring down oil prices  during Iran War, including repealing Jones Act. The Jones Act says that only US ships can transport oil between US ports. France is sending warships to help escort tankers in the Persian Gulf. US has plans to do this to escort tankers. US can provide 24/7 drone coverage in the Persian Gulf to eliminate waterborne threats says the Post. The Post says it is in the French interest for oil trade to resume, and in America's interest.

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One in every 12 women or 2 million will be a victim of some form of sexual violence in England and Wales every year a police chiefs  report says. One in 20 adults or 2.3 million will be perpetrators.The alarming scale of violence against women and girls is shown in the national analysis for England and Wales of the National Police Chiefs Council. Violence against women has grown 37% over 5 years. Two million women are affected, says NPCC, from stalking, harrassment, sexual assault and domestic violence. And people involved are getting younger. Police chiefs are demanding that tech companies take down extreme material and warning about the influencers who are "radicalizing" men online. The attitude and culture towards violence in general has deteriorated in the UK and the US, and the violence against women of this magnitude shows that a lot of work will be needed to change this attitude and culture. It truly is a National Emergency in the UK and in the US. ...

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Only the week before Tuesday April 7 Pakistan Foreign Minister Dhar failed to convince China to get involved. April 7th Tuesday in the US 1.30 pm US time, 8 pm Islamabad Pakistan time, China finally decided to jump in to convince Iran to accept peace talks in Islamabad. It is quite possible that behind the scenes the US was talking with China which has a 25 Year Comprehensive Agreement with Iran signed in 2021 that is the main support for the Iranian economy. China acted to reassure Iran that talks in Islamabad would proceed smoothly, and persuade Iran to accept ceasefire and talks. Why? Knowing that brinksmanship by US and Iran would lead to unforeseen consequences and hurt China's economy with oil price volatility as well as  hurt the US economy, and hurt the prospects for the planned May14-15 visit by DJT to Beijing to improve economic and political ties, both China and the US wanted to do everything to prevent this from happening. The result a hastily arranged peace talks in Islamabad so that by 4 am Islamabad time on Wednesday or 6.30 pm US time on Tuesday evening the ceasefire had already been agree to by US and Iran, according to this report in The Guardian from Pakistan. The crux of the matter was that it would affect US and China's economy with oil volatility, and US-China relations by jeopardizing May 14-15 revised date for DJT visit to Beijing. This good sense prevailed over all the war rhetoric and the media information and disinformation. It is confusing because of all the misinformation, but becomes clear when one understands this in the context provided in this report from Pakistan by the Guardian. Why Pakistan? For Pakistan the missile attack the day before of a Saudi petrochemical complex by Iran was drawing Saudis into the war and Pakistan has signed a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia that requires Pakistan to support Saudi Arabia if it gets into a war. For Pakistan it was a fragile situation that would be a catastrophe with unforeseen consequences on its economy. Already schools are closed for 1 month in Pakistan and oil is in short supply, paying for it at $115 or $125 a barrel would put severe strain on Pakistan. Who wins, who loses is being told in the media- much less on the good sense that prevailed  the efforts and the predicament of the large powers China, India, the US, and Germany, European Union, the poorer countries, all hurt economically, caught in a war they do not want, do not need. ...

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DJT and Xi of China agree that Hormuz Straits should not be controlled by Iran, and no tolls for passage through Hormuz on ships to be paid to Iran. Thedse are points of agreement with China at the summit between Xi and DJT in Beijing  May 14 2026. It is certain that Xi of China is also for no proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East. China has to manage relations in the Middle East by considering the Arab  states of North Africa with whom it has good relations and their point of view- these countries are- Egypt, Moroccco, Tunisia, Algeria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. China gets its oil from both Iran and these Arab states. In a larger sense both the US and China are looking for alternative sources of oil after this episode of conflict in the Middle East one of a long series of events since the 1970's for 5 decades.  China and the US, India, EU are looking at this episode as a point from where a new renewed effort is being launched to replace fossil with renewable energy, be able to generate more GNP with fewer oil and energy resources. ...

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At Lyrarc we pointed out how US president Harry Truman had to persuade the US Congress to get aid to Greece and Turkey bills passed to prevent an imminent Communist takeover with Soviet bloc aid in 1948. Paul Krugman points out that this happened before when FDR had to persuade the US Congress to pass bills for Lend Lease agreement aid to Europe in 1942. Much of that aid was in food and other non military aid because the US arms manufacturing was beginning to ramp up.  Krugman also corrects the former president's statements regarding Ukraine aid that the European have done less. Counting all assistance to Ukraine he says the EU has done more than the US. It is because the arms production in the EU has to be ramped up and the US has arms production factories better prepared in military aid the US has done more in military aid, not overall or in other aid. He also points out that $13 billion FDR got from Congress for Europe in 1942 was 10% of US GDP, whereas Ukraine aid is only one fourth of one percent of US GDP, and much of it going as Mr. Biden pointed out, going into investment in American factories and jobs to supply Ukraine. ...

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

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Canada's pitch to the US before tough negotiations with Jamieson Greer to preserve Canada's automobile industry, its aluminium industry, dairy industry with benefits gained in the past. US had also put forward its pitch for 82% North American content and 50% of it from the US for all automobiles sold in the US. Carney takes a positive approach presenting Canada as a strong partner that would Make America Great Again by offering its vast mineral resources, and its resources of oil and LNG. It says LNG will double from 2030 to 2040 from 50 million to 100 million tonnes of LNG annually. 56 critical minerals agreements with $18 billion in investment, doubling the electricity grid for lowest cost power and second lowest emission in OECD countries. Canada is an anomaly in trade says Sir Ivor Jennings in his book on the British Commonwealth. Its trade east to west is an anomaly when if it was truly apart of the North American economic region it would trade north to south. This is the result of Montgomery's failure to take Quebec during the War of Independence as Washington planned the war with Britain. For instance Ontario would trade with Vermont and New Hampshire and New York near its borders. Instead the dairy industry in Canada operates in competition with the US and sends product east to west. Washington and Oregon are not trading normally with neighbors British Columbia instead shipping product back to eastern Canada. For years the US allowed Canada and Mexico benefits in trade that hurt is own auto industry. Jamieson Greer is expected to change this so that US manufacturing can compete with China and European Union on a level playing field. ...

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Battersea Power Station in its heyday in the 1950's processed one mlilion tons of coal from Wales and England to power the UK with one fifth's of its electricity. King Charles pays a Christmas visit to the Power Station buildings that are converted into shops and where Apple has its UK headquarters. The singer Raye performs during the visit. The architecture design was done by Sir Giles Gilbert Scott. It resembles an upside down coffee table. The boiler house could fit St Paul's cathedral inside, says the BBC.

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WSJ says that like the US economy in general Las Vegas and Nevada now relies for its economy on a small section of affluent people in the US. Las Vegas is now a luxury location. The steep rise in hotel rates, in automobile rentals rates, has made places like New York with hotel rates of $300-$400 as normal essentially luxury trip locations. This is true of many cities inthe US. The US is a different country now. 

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VW's Scout Motors plans in 2026 to sell direct to buyers. A Scout Motors VP says of VW's plans- “We have heard over and over again, ‘Please give me an alternative. You see that there is very little trust in auto dealers today.”  Dealers have lobbied to have the laws in US set so that no one else but dealers can sell cars. Yet this may be becoming an outdated way to sell cars if car makers can provide good service over 10 years to buyers and make the whole process of buying and owning a car a pleasant experience for owners. It is far from that today and the experience is not one that is consistent in quality and have ease of use as the experience varies with each dealer and can change with a single dealer over time, quality is not assured.

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Oil tanker hit off Dubai port carrying 2 million barrels of oil to China from Kuwait and Saudi on March 30 2026. This is the first big hit by a drone or missile of a ship carrying over 1 million barrels of oil. Crew of 24 was unhurt and the ship survived the hit by a drone with no oil leaking into the waters of the Persian Gulf. China gets 90% of its oil imports through the Straits of Hormuz. Which is why DJT says when this is about keeping shipping lanes open for oil transit it makes no sense that a Nation like the US that is self sufficient in oil and gas should have to take on the responsibilities of keeping  international shipping lanes open without any help from China- or Japan and South Korea. It is one reason for the US president's critical remarks on lack of such help, particularly from allies from the European continent.

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Average US bills for electricity have gone up by over 10% in about 15 states with some rate hikes over 20%, reports the Washington Post. In New Jersey 21%, Virginai 15%. Higher prices in Utah where renewable energy projects cancellation have drawn criticism from Republican governor Spencer Cox. Higher rates also in Indiana, Ohio and Louisiana. Data centers put up by tech companies are taking up huge amounts of energy pushing up rates. Voters believe these tech companies are not paying their "fair share." There is also no clear idea on whether clean energy is pushing up prices of electricity or whether the cancellation of clean energy projects including the ones that make sense  are pushing up electricity prices, with voters going both ways in their perceptions. With a rapidly shrinking gap between India+ Japan and China, the US can finally put to rest the burdens of conflict such as the 1930's Japanese invasion of China, the war after pearl Harbor in the Pacific, the Korean conflict, and the Vietnam conflict in which America and its people shouldered huge burdens. ...

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Reading for pleasure leisure reading in US at 29% and 23% for women and men in 2004 drops to 18% and 14%. Lyrarc's Movement for Global Literacy seeks to revive the practice of reading step by step including reading in English in the modern world, for improved functioning as citizens of the modern world, and enhancing the practice of reading for curiosity in different fields to expand one's horizons and that of society at large. The decline of reading is about 40% studies done by the University of Florida and the University College of London show, much larger than anyone thought possible over 2 decades in which the Nation has lost some of its dynamism. More shocking is that only 2% of 240,000 Americans followed in this study over 2003 to 2023, a mere 5000 parents out of 240,000 read to children every day. Equally shocking is that half of all Americans about 46% do not read at all and most have parents not in the habit of reading. Bad as 150 second attention span sounds  as average for Americans in 2004 UC Irvine professor Gloria Mark says this is now a mere 47 seconds. This is what social media and interactions with google, internet have done to America. The major loss is in the happiness that leisure reading and reading for fun gives us, the deep loss  for our mental well being that reduces stress and anxiety makes us feel better, says Sonke of the University of Florida study. ...

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NYT's Simon Romero looks at Cumano in Venezuela, and the breakdown of water, electricity,  industry, and education systems in this city. How efforts to solve inequality without a grasp of how a modern economy works can lead to something worse. And how good intentions are not enough, lack of understanding and knowledge of of a government (Chavez and successors), on how industry, infrastructure for water and electricity, education and healthcare works is dangerous. Immersion in the rhetoric (Chavismo) makes things worse. Appeals to Simon Bolivar (history), mass communication (Alo Presidente), religious symbolism (socialist motherland and victory) and us vs them, (the marginalized poor and the established elites), mean little and take an entire nation backwards for making industrial progress and infrastructure building,  creating a strong modern economy. It in fact turns out to be dangerous and counterproductive, breaking up the very productive forces that are needed to build a modern economy. The Japanese visited and carefully studied the US transformation into an industrial advanced economy in the 1890's Meiji era, the Chinese visited and studied the Japanese plus the US transformation into industrial advanced economies in the 1990's, and Indians visited and studied the Japanese, Chinese, and American transformation into industrial advanced economies by 2014 in Gujarat State, to spread that model to all states to achieve the goal of building infrastructure, manufacturing, and modernization. America made some careful choices under Lincoln, TR, FDR, Truman and Eisenhower to achieve this transformation. Bringing factory labor, farmers, professional classes, and factory owners together under FDR with his first experiment in New York state building modern institutions with Secretary of Labor Frances Perkins, and industrial interests, then repeating this across 51 states in the Union as president of the US. Frances Perkins documents this in her book "The Roosevelt I Know." ...

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After the surge in illegal migration, concerns about crime, concerns about integrating newcomers, cost and strain on social and public services, homelessness in cities, there is a sense that the pause will be a good thing to give the US an opportunity to reevaluate how it manages entry and integration of newcomers. Theodore Roosevelt's remarks in 1904 Message to Congress come to mind when he said about citizenship in the US- "The citizenship of this country should not be debased. It is vital that we kep high the standard of living of our wage workers, and therefore we should not admit masses of men whose standards of living, customs and habits are such that they tend to lower the level of the American wage worker. Above all we should not admit any man of an unworthy type, any man of whom we can say that he will be a bad citizen, or that his children will detract from instead of adding to the sum of the good citizenship of this country." This is not something new. Operation Wetback was conducted by no less than president Dwight Eisenhower in 1954 after the surge in illegal migration during the Truman administration during WW II. There was a similar sense then that the administration had taken up removal of migrants seriously and there were situations where illegal  migrants were loaded onto trucks, yet there was also a sense that there were problems with illegal migration surge that needed to be fixed including homelessness, strain on services, safety on the streets, lack of integration in culture and language. A pause means less population growth with declining population growth in the US. The natural population growth from births/deaths was 1.9 million in 2000, down to 1.1 million in 2017 and in 2025 was 519,000. At some point it will be declining, yet a pause is needed to get the citizenship education, the integration, the economic participation, the cultural side, strain on public services, to get this right. Another facet of this is its political context but all sides should think about the Nation and not politicize the issue. Outmigration to southern states and mountain states from California was 230,00, from New York 137,000, from 3 states, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts about 30,000-40,000 in 2025. As a result the southern and mountain states mostly Republican may add 6-8 Congressional seats by 2028 or 2030.   ...

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Court blocks deportation of a group of Venezuelans on the basis of Alien Enemies Act of 1798, says other remedies can be tried. This is one of 4 laws passed under John Adams in 1798 to remove citizens or subjects of a hostile nation during times of war or invasion. The case now goes to the US Supreme Court. The Court of Appeals of the Fifth Circuit is based in New Orleans with 3 Judges making the decision. Bush appointee Southwick joined Biden appointee Ramirez against Trump appointee Oldham in a 2-1 decision. Oldham in a 131 page dissent says-“Today the majority holds that President Trump is just an ordinary civil litigant. His declaration of a predatory incursion is not conclusive. Far from it. Rather, President Trump must plead sufficient facts — as if he were some run-of-the-mill plaintiff in a breach-of-contract case — to convince a federal judge that he is entitled to relief.” Southwick does not appear to see this as an invasion ignoring the deaths from fentanyl and drug trafficking in the US, the strain on public resources and cities of uncontrolled flow of migrants in recent years, saying- “A country’s encouraging its residents and citizens to enter this country illegally is not the modern-day equivalent of sending an armed, organized force to occupy, to disrupt or to otherwise harm the United States.” Yet even an armed organized force was pushed back in the War of 1812, and has little chance where the current problems have led to the deaths of more young Americans from drug trafficking than three times the deaths in the Vietnam and Korean Wars combined, three times the deaths in World War I and about 75% of the deaths in World War II, something that needs reflection and action. With the changing public sentiment in the UK and Europe and in the US on law and order and on migrants the Supreme Court is faced with coming up with a decision in the best interests of the Nation and its People. ...

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How a deficiency in trust is affecting the US effort to vaccinate its whole population in 2021. The US government took steps early to build vaccine supplies, and was one of the first countries with the UK to begin its vaccination drive. Then after 6 months something went wrong. The deficiency in trust led to about 80 million people many of them young, to avoid getting vaccinated. US president Biden said the country was losing patience with these people. He setup a vaccine mandate and required all employees in private sector in companies with more than 100 employees to get vaccinated. This applied to about two thirds of American workers. All federal government workers were also required to get vaccinated. Yet even after the vaccine mandate the number of vaccinations has not exceeded 900,000 a day. By contrast India was doing 20 million a day. By September 2021 the US had fallen behind all nations in the G-7 in percentage of people vaccinated with one or two doses, behind Italy, France, UK, Germany, Japan, Canada. Trust was also needed, not just vaccine supplies to make a vaccination drive effective. By September the US passed the 675,000 deaths that happened in 1918 pandemic. The deficiency in trust leads one expert to call it breakthrough without followthrough. Other experts see the entrenched social forces that had diminished American health and life expectancy since the 1970's also affecting the vaccination drive. ...

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Khamanei as leader of post revolution Iran set up Iranian supported military organizations in neighboring countries such as in Lebanon (Hezbollah), in Iraq, and in Syria, in Yemen (Houthis), over two decades, but failed to make the gains that Asian nations in that period made by investing entirely every dollar in the homeland economy of Iran. By comparing with Asian nations such as South Korea/Japan/Taiwan/China and now India/Vietnam the entire region from Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan, Persian Gulf, Egypt can be seen as having lost some vital decades of the early twenty first century, and the scale of the difference is nothing short of staggering.  China after suffering invasion from Britain and then Japan, after civil wars and the Korean War, after going through this for two centuries sought peaceful development in 1990-2025, working with Japan and Britain countries that caused so much suffering yet China sough rapprochement, patiently with humility, with incredible results.  Gandhi also sought rapprochement with Britain through the British Commonwealth and cherished institutions of parliament and science learned and gathered from Britain. This was woefully missing in West Asia. When considering the access to capital in fossil fuel sales, the region of West Asia around Egypt may be seen as having recorded the largest wasted capital in wars in world history in the period 1920 -2047 (with only 20 years left to 2047),  by which time India, China, Europe and the US will have shifted from fossil to solar nuclear and renewables and fossil will be no longer generating revenue flows. Very little time is left as development will be that much harder by 2047 without the capital and result being one of being left behind in this new world that is facing us all.  ...

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China's 15th Five Year Plan with shift to robotics, semiconductors, EV's, renewable energy, and lower investment in education, healthcare- the shift to a slowing economy, job losses. GDP per capita one third of the US much lower than most of southern Europe or Eastern Europe. China is still a middle income country. Unlike Japan which surpassed most of EU countries  GDP per capita, China with 1.4 billion people is a vast country. The shift in the emphasis in the 5 year Plan means economic growth  of 10-12% is now only 5%. With the collapse in housing construction and slowing manufacturing facing tariffs in the US means job losses.