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Germany's investment in defense and infrastructure will see major increases under Merz/Kingsbiel CDU/SPD coalition government, borrowing in 2029 are 4 time levels in 2024 to finance a massive wave of investment. These investments were held off under Merkels government of the CDU from 2005 to 2021 and under the four year term of SPD's Scholz. A lot of damage is done by such disinvestment in the German economy from childcare and housing to transportation and internet infrastructure, to defense. It was part of the program of the Greens and Social Democrats under Scholz's government 2021-2024 but was stalled by finance minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats who was not fired until 2024 and who lost his seat and the FDP's presence in parliament in the 2025 elections for his role. Lindner's support of the constitutional debt brake set up by Merkel is seen as depriving Germany of the modernization of its infrastructure and the economy.  Germany's defense budget is set to more than double by 2029, increasing to €152.8 billion ($177 billion). Net borrowing will  significantly increase in the draft budget.  €81.8 billion in 2025, up from €33.3 billion in 2024. €89.3 billion in 2026, €87.5 billion in 2027, €115.7 billion in 2028 and €126.1 billion in 2029 or 4 times the level of 2024. The principal achievement in 2025 by Merz was to remove the constitutional debt brake of Merkel/Lindner and make modernization of infrastructure and defense a top priority of the Merz/Kingbeil CDU/SPD government. ...

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The Times looks at troop presence for NATO in the Baltic States, Poland and Romania as the US faces down a Russian threat to Ukraine and a possible imminent invasion. It says contingency planning has been carried out and the US and NATO are prepared.

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Shabana Mahmood, new UK Home Secretary in September 2025 says -"Will do whatever it takes to secure our borders. I am not the kind of person who just hangs around."

About Shabana Mahmood it has been said- “She prides herself on not being woke. She prides herself on having normal-person instincts and understanding where the electorate is.”

The Times says this may be just what Labour Party and Starmer needs right now.

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Goll describes the human condition in his descriptions of Weimar Germany, Nazi Germany, and the Cold War. He lived through it all and was a prolific writer. His diaries describe the conditions of the times, of the German condition through two wars and a divided Germany. He lived through the hard times of Weimar, and records this scene of a couple pushing a cart through the snow, working hard, getting stuck, the man raging, the woman enduring it all. He reflects about the human condition, going from one mistake to another, struggling and groping in the darkness, looking for a way out, for the good path.

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Neil Irwin of the NYT provides some positive news on U.S. housing. Access to housing at affordable prices is improving as more home are built at the lower end. In July home buyers bought single family houses at the annual rate of 654,000, highest since 2007, according to government reports. This is an increase of 31% over 2015. Builders are building new houses at the rate of one million homes a year every month since April 2015. Census Bureau report shows median sale price at 294,600 for new homes in July down from $310,500, largely because more homes are being supplied which is good for first time buyers. And home price increases are moderate, about 5% a year for the last 2 years, based on S&P/Case Shiller home price index composite of 20 cities. The home ownership rate is now at 62.9%, and though this is down from 69% in 2016, this is close to the 63-64% that prevailed during the period from 1965 to the eighties.  It could move higher as the economy improves and supply at the lower end increases further, but other factors are present such as delaying buying a house as student debt has soared, or not buying at all because of lack of affordable prices. Investment in housing is likely to increase- at 3.8% of GDP it is still below the 4.6% average since 1947.   ...

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Polls published by IDEA in Hungary that show less than 10% of Hungarians see EU as a concern most are concerned about corruption and governance and public services cost of living. This was done before the election and showed Tisza at 39% and Fidesz at 30% support with 22% undecided at the time who swung in favor of Magyar and Tisza party. This shows that policies will change and Tisza supporters by large majority want change in policies friendly to EU. Yet the election was fought for good governance, good public services and lower cost of living. This means changes will not be too drastic  with Russia, not keen on Russian oil imports but maintaining pragmatic relations with Russia. But it makes a difference as 18 billion euros will be coming to Hungary from EU that were frozen under Orban which can finance better public services. Rule of law can improve and corruption can be reduced in government for Hungarian society to be seen as healthy after a quarter century of one party government by Fidesz party of Orban. ...

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The Times looks at whether female leaders are better in handling situations like the pandemic. When it looks at all the information without cherry-picking this report says they are no better than male leaders. Sanna Marin of Finland and Angela Merkel are not better than a Biden or a Modi.

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Zweig gives the example of Palm Pilot IPO shares in March 2000, which the parent company 3Com priced at more than 1,350 times net earnings for the Palm shares. He cites George Akerlof, who writes about identity economics, and points to the fact that users of a product can be so fanatically devoted to it so as to drive up the price for an extended period of time. In the case of Palm Pilot its users were fanatically devoted to the product. This appears to be true for Facebook with users who see their identity enhanced as they put up pictures of themselves and share with friends. Over time users may realize that it is their private information that Facebook is using to generate revenue. It also sets up the shares for a sharper reversal over time.

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Overwork from hidden work that creeps into the day as the lines have blurred between the workday and time to relax during the pandemic, is the subject of this report in the BBC. Disconnecting is also not always the case during vacation time as checking podcasts and other indirectly work related items take up time. 

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Court blocks deportation of a group of Venezuelans on the basis of Alien Enemies Act of 1798, says other remedies can be tried. This is one of 4 laws passed under John Adams in 1798 to remove citizens or subjects of a hostile nation during times of war or invasion. The case now goes to the US Supreme Court. The Court of Appeals of the Fifth Circuit is based in New Orleans with 3 Judges making the decision. Bush appointee Southwick joined Biden appointee Ramirez against Trump appointee Oldham in a 2-1 decision. Oldham in a 131 page dissent says-“Today the majority holds that President Trump is just an ordinary civil litigant. His declaration of a predatory incursion is not conclusive. Far from it. Rather, President Trump must plead sufficient facts — as if he were some run-of-the-mill plaintiff in a breach-of-contract case — to convince a federal judge that he is entitled to relief.” Southwick does not appear to see this as an invasion ignoring the deaths from fentanyl and drug trafficking in the US, the strain on public resources and cities of uncontrolled flow of migrants in recent years, saying- “A country’s encouraging its residents and citizens to enter this country illegally is not the modern-day equivalent of sending an armed, organized force to occupy, to disrupt or to otherwise harm the United States.” Yet even an armed organized force was pushed back in the War of 1812, and has little chance where the current problems have led to the deaths of more young Americans from drug trafficking than three times the deaths in the Vietnam and Korean Wars combined, three times the deaths in World War I and about 75% of the deaths in World War II, something that needs reflection and action. With the changing public sentiment in the UK and Europe and in the US on law and order and on migrants the Supreme Court is faced with coming up with a decision in the best interests of the Nation and its People. ...

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Portuguese director Miguel Gomes and the film "Tabu" about nostalgia for the past in colonial Mozambique and the realities of life at the time.

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Spotify acquires podcasting firms to broaden its appeal and acquire nonmusic content including listening time on radio. Spotify thinks it can bring to nonmusic content podcasts what it has done for music by bringing better curation, customization and recommendation, while developing tools and collecting data for podcasters. Talk enhances the experience of listening to music, says Spotify CEO Daniel EK.  Spotify aims to take some of the two hours people listen to radio globally and make money off of it. Ek says video is a bout $1 trillion market, and music plus radio $100 billion, but he questions whether our eyes are worth 10 times as much as our ears." Adding more monetization opportunities is key. Spotify says it has seen that podcasts command an engaged audience- people who see podcasts spend twice as much time using the service, and tend to stream more live music. They are less likely to cancel subscriptions.  Spotify has 206 million users and 96 million subscribers. Average revenue per user is 4.89 euros as many of Spotify's users come in through family plans and in international markets with lower pricing power. ...

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This report in WSJ shows how Mexico is planning to receive hundreds of thousands of migrants returned back to Mexico by the DJT administration in the US. The deportation program has led to a 90 percent drop in jungle border crossings across Panama into Mexico from Central and South America. Migrant entry from other countries is also expected to drop similar to this. Previous Mexican administrations allowed the flow of migrants through Mexico from Central and South America helping create the problem of illegal migration to the US of such large numbers of people, without carefully looking at the consequences of such policies. This happened also after World War II leading to president Truman appointing a Commission on this issue in the waning days of his administration and the Eisenhower administration putting the Attorney General in charge of the Operation Wetback in 1954 which returned about 1 million migrants back to Mexico. At that time as happened in 2024 the US was no longer able to cope with flow of such migrants across borders. US legislation has fallen behind the times in addressing immigration issues and this has placed an inappropriate burden on the American people. Bipartisan legislation has to be done as was agreed by Biden and Senator Lankford on the US Congress Republican side, with changes that DJT Republicans sought to have in that bill on numbers of entry and other points. ...

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Bryan Graham in The Guardian offers this more subdued reaction compared to Jason Gay in The WSJ on the performance of Mikaela Shiffrin of Colorado, at the Winter Olympics. She had the longest gap between a medal at the Olympics in skiing after problems at the Beijing Olympics not coming down half of the time. Shiffrin is shown with her thoughts about the loss of her father (aspects of PTSD following her fall and injury in Killington, Vermont, in 2024) who helped her train with no stress letting her be who she was. After several attempts she comes down to her favored event the slalom and after so many doubting her performance and skill focuses thoughts on the fact that she had all the skills, the tools, now it was just to focus on the period from start to finish and execute with precision. In the end after moving the goalposts forward with more than asecond to spare in her lead she simply cannot believe her eyes, a complete disbelief. It was about simply trying and focusing after building all the skills, and finally just turning up anyway after all the disappointments and  injuries and this does it all, says it all.  ...

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Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive is the new Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration. His ties to Goldman Sachs go beyond his own work at the firm. His father joined Goldman in 1957, and worked for his entire career at the investment bank. Steven's brother Alan also worked at Goldman. During the campaign Trump was severe in his criticism of his opponents Cruz and Clinton's ties to the bank. Ironies abound, not only is the new Treasury Secretary from Goldman, his connections go back a generation. The Treasury Secretary under Clinton was Goldman Sachs executive Robert Rubin. Under Bush who followed Clinton the Treasury Secretary was Goldman Sachs executive Henry Paulson. Under Republican and Democratic administrations Goldman Sachs executives have held key positions. Mr Mnuchin was campaign finance chairman for Trump for 6 months leading to him being chosen for Treasury Secretary. Mnuchin joined Goldman in 1985. During the campaign Trump was also severe in his criticism of financier George Soros, making this a key point in a debate with Clinton for taking Soros's support. This report by Das and Ensign points out that in 2002 Mnuchin left Goldman to run a credit fund set up by George Soros. In 2004 Mnuchin founded hedge fund Dune Capital Management LP with Soros support.  When IndyMac bank collapsed a deal with the government was arranged that covered a part of any future loan losses being taken by FDIC, and Dune was one of several hedge funds and private equity funds including Soros funds that acquired it for $1.5 billion. The renamed IndyMac bank was called OneWest with Mnuchin as chairman. OneWest was sold in 2014 at a large profit to CIT Group Inc. This report says CIT Group took a $230 million charge in July 2015 for accounting problems at OneWest.  During the latter part of the Trump campaign after he joined it in May 2016, Mnuchin set up a joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee. This made it possible for major donors to give to the Republican party and Mr Trump. The head of the Republican National Committee is Mr. Lewis Eisenberg. Having run the technology division at Goldman, Mnuchin was prominent in Goldman and investment banking circles in New York.    ...

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Germany's chancellor visits Argentina, Chile, and Brazil, in an effort to renew German ties with the South American nations. A German business delegation will accompany Scholz on this trip to renew business ties. This happens as US and the EU build closer ties to traditional partners in all parts of the world.

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Shares of Adani Enterprises went up by 3000% over 5 years putting valuations at extreme levels, says this report in the WSJ. This has created a disconnect between valuations and fundamentals say some experts. Hindenburg Research is a American forensic financial research firm started in 2017 by Nathan Anderson in New York City with 5 employees. It has issued a critical report of the Adani Group companies leading to a loss of 18.5% of its valuation. Adani Group companies make up 5% of the Bombay Stock Exchange and are a big part of its renewable energy effort even though the company had major interests in coal in Australia. Adani is trying to make the switch to renewable solar and wind energy and at the same time meet India's continuing need for coal because of its large population. The situation is similar to China and is poorly understood in the US and Europe, the effort to make large investments in renewable energy even as the company provides energy from fossil fuels. Adani set up the Mundra port in Gujarat helping Gujarat become energy sufficient and making it the most industrialized part of India. The London based Financial Times took a look at the Adani Group long before Hindenburg Research in the last 2 years and concluded that Adani Group companies have grown rapidly because India's effort for industrialization requires aggressive investment and risk taking which none of the other companies including India's Tata and Reliance Group are able to do in infrastructure and energy in the same way that Adani has. Reliance Group has invested in 4G and 5G and setup Jio to create low cost access to fast internet in India. When it comes to roads, airports, coal and renewable energy Adani has invested aggressively. This has created the perception that the Adani Group has benefited from its relations with the government. As the Financial Times put it Adani Group was the only private investor willing to take up the challenge of super sized goals needed for India's rapid growth. In this sense a forensic research company based on short selling is up against a company that has already faced skepticism about its rapid emergence as a renewable energy focused company shifting from fossil fuels, a transition neither Exxon or Chevron in the US have been able to do. ...

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The Indian Civil Services exam is extremely competitive. Students who were at the top of the passing list describe the setbacks they faced and had to overcome. Many of the top candidates had to take the exam three or four times. Candidates say consistent hard work, discipline and patience is needed to do well.

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Asked about it yesterday January 16 DJT tells the press outside the White House after a meeting announcing his Great Healthcare Plan, it is a good thing that Canada has signed a trade deal with China. It reflects the new view not clearly understood or told in the press what US trade policy is about. US trade policy in 2026 is about bringing investment and jobs back to the US to rebuild communities and towns across 51 states- once destroyed by the foolish trade policies of the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama 3 destructive policy decades. Supplementing this with the investment favorable policy of instant depreciation for investments in plant and equipment in the Big Beautiful Bill of 2025. Using tariffs to level the playing field and ensure fairness in business practices by industries and nations towards America after over 3 decades all else has failed. All the time protecting Rural America, and communities and towns across the US devastated by outshoring. Using Tariffs to make certain that drug and migrant trafficking, and hostile unelected governments in the western Hemisphere cannot take place with direct and  indirect intervention in the western hemisphere by foreign powers. To do this with the Monroe Doctrine Corollary set by Teddy Rooosevelt in his Annual Message to Congress of 1905- "A great free people owes it to itself and to all mankind not to sink into helplessness before the powers of evil." Under such a policy Canada can pursue trade deals with China as the US has done. The clear rationale for the US policy is nowhere evident in the press today, how trade and domestic policy and foreign policy converge to protect all Americans, even though this was something that was pursued under the Biden administration with mistakes made in handing the Border management to Mayorkas and Harris incompetence. In the use of Tariffs doing this in such a way that US economic interest, investments, capital and stock markets are protected by carving out areas of exemptions in the policy. This has given the US an highly advantageous use of Tariff policy in ways not reflected in the press version of Tariffs. As TR pointed out, as Lincoln pointed out over a century ago, the interests of both Labor and of Capital are both legitimate and vital for the Nation. It is time to see this as one whole and not separate to rebuild America.   ...

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People value their independence more and value their personal time more as a result of working from home during the pandemic in 2020 and in 2021. People have learned to manage their time without oversight. Family time and personal priorities are now more important. Greater autonomy from organizational structures and managers is the new way of life.

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The effects of school closures on the mental and emotional health of children is the subject of this report in the NYT by Ellen Barry. It is more evidence of the role that schools play in protecting children at difficult times and when homes come under severe stress. 

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Lane Florsheim's interview with Melinda Gates.  Melinda Gates is reinventing herself at age 60 years. Born in the 1960's  and as part of the Gates foundation she now faces both the opportunity and the challenges ahead of her new effort with The Pivotal foundation, which replaces the effort she made at Gates, the launch of a new book to share her experiences with panic attacks and coming to terms with her own inner voice that said start over.  Here she describes her life in Seattle that starts with a cup of coffee at 6.30, and a chance for reflection in the early mornig hours. She goes out for a walk by 7.00 with three trusted friends she has gone out for walks for 20 years. Melinda describes her new life with her love of kayaking and her chance to do this without being recognized in Seattle. Her three children and her grandchildren live in the East coast. She likes poetry and instead of the frequent travel abroad in her first life, in this second life she can devote time to her passion for making life easier and better for women. She describes meeting women in Louisiana and other states and seeking solutions for better women's health and mental health. She has an objective view of the times, and faith in American democracy, and her new role in the discussions as her own self as a woman. ...

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Thailand's finance minister, Mr Kittiratt, says the capital inflows into Thailand are about three times more than the inflows before the 2008 global economic crisis. Surging investment in Thai government bonds because of higher interest rates in Thailand is leading to a stronger Thai currency. This makes Thai exporters less competitive than exporters in Vietnam and Malaysia.

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As India takes on the presidency of the G20 in December the first steps are being taken by the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to build closer ties with India. The Hindu gives this intervew with Baerbock that shows Germany's keen interest in building the India Germany partnership. This sets the stage for the bi-annual India Germany summit meeting, with German chancellor Scholz to visit India in early 2023. Some of Baerbock's comments show energy and enthusiasm for India to work closely with Europe. "Our countries have so much to offer one another. We want to tap that enormous potential. One such example is the concrete agreement we will sign during my visit, making it a lot easier for both Indians and Germans to study, research and work in our respective countries." "Today's era is not the era of war, that was Mr Modi's message to Putin- that was the resounding message and I highly appreciate India's seminal role in achieving this." ...

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Venetians say their city is being invaded by hordes of tourists who live in hotels on Mestre and cross a causeway to come to Venice. Venice gets an estimated 2 million tourists. A new referendum seeks to separate the city administration of Venice from Mestre giving Venice the autonomy to protect the city against floods and overburdening by tourists. Mestre has 3 times the population of Venice and is on dry land so that decisions made in Mestre are not in the interests of Venice.  The referendum is intended to stop cruise ships from coming to Venice at a time when new hotels are coming up in Mestre. The mayor and city administration oppose the referendum creating a situation after the damage caused by floods on November 12 which show how chaotic it is. Seventy two submersible yellow flood gates designed to prevent the flood were tested and could have been made activated on November 12, but no action was taken, causing about $1 billion in damage. The city is offering $5000 as compensation for businesses, but a bakery that sustained close to $77,000 of damage like other businesses is looking to the referendum to change the way the place is governed.  ...