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Countries dependent on remittances of workers overseas are hit hard by the coronavirus. This WSJ report shows the situation in Central America which gets $24 billion in remittances form its workers in the U.S. E Salvador gets $5.6 billion in remittances. This is down by 40% in April central bank numbers show, because of jobs lost in the U.S. by workers from El Salvador who migrated to the U.S.  Unemployment rate for Hispanics in April was 20%. El Salvador depends on remittances more than any other Latin American country as remittances are higher than exports. In some rural areas this means older residents have no money to buy food and depend on charities for food supplies.

Today the situation in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, and other countries in Asia which depend on remittances of overseas workers is also leading to a difficult time for families dependent for such support.

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This report in DW.com shows the coverage in German media of the election of Droupadi Murmu as the president of India. She is the second woman and the first person from a tribal community to be elected president. She worked as a school teacher and was elected to the state assembly in Odisha (Orissa) in eastern India twice. She served as the governor of Jharkhand a state with a large tribal community in eastern India from 2015. About 27% of Jharkhand population is tribal and much higher in rural areas because over 90% of tribal people live in the rural villages. Murmu is from the Santhal tribe that is spread over several northeastern states. Most of the tribal population of 106 million people in India is in the northeast, east, some in the west, in border states with China and Pakistan, and in these parts of India it makes up as much as a quarter of the population or higher. This is why a new India requires better educated, good governance dedicated tribal leaders who can contribute to development under sab ka vikas sab ka prayas, development for all through everyone's efforts. ...

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Vegetable prices in China went up by 22% in July 2010, from a year earlier, and grain prices went up by 12%, eggs by 8%. About a third of household budgets go to food in the budgets of people in India and China. Wheat prices are climbing on world markets after the ban on Russian exports, and rice prices are also climbing with the floods in Pakistan ruining the rice crop- Pakistan being the No.3 world's rice exporter. Personal spending accounts for 36% of overall GDP in China and 57% in India. Food prices in China were up 6.8% in July, 2010. Industrialization in China, and agricultural land freely taken over for factory sites with the consent of local authorites, may be a complicating factor. See the link to BYD's acquisition of agricultural land for factory site.

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Ajami makes the point that opinions and attitudes -after the Obama efforts to improve America's standing in the Muslim world - havent changed much since the Bush days. He cites the Pew Global Attitudes Survey for 2009- In Turkey after the Obama Anakra visit favorable rating is only 14%, 69% are unreconciled. In Egypt 27% have favorable view 70% do not, in Pakistan unfavorables actally went up from 63% to 68%. He also points to the situation in Iran where the protester for the fraud in the election of Ahmadinejad did not receive much supprt from Obama, as the Obama administration decided to engage with Ahmadinejad to achieve nuclear settlement. In effect the rhetoric from Obama has not been matched with courage of convicitions , and lacks the courage to turn a new chapter by breaking from the past not just with talk but in real policy changes. And says Ajami the Arabs havve stopped listening to the rhetoric as little has been accomplished by way of change. At the same time false expectations may have been aroused because the Cairo speech was made at the University with the aging Mubarak at Obama's side, and beyond addressing these students the feeling clearly must be that the US would simply continue its policies of supporting old regimes that tolerate no dissent of any kind such as Mubarak's. ...

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A whole range of issues can be seen in the debt crises in developing countries. The margin for error shrinks with poor governance, lack of honest assessment and transparency for finances, wars and conflicts within or outside the countries, living beyond their means, lack of focus on development, infrastructure that is unproductive or unaffordable including some Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure at higher interest rates. Countries that are dependent on overseas remittances, tourism, that were hit hard by the pandemic have seen their finances further weakened reducing the margin for error even more to the point that the smallest tipping point can lead to huge crises. Once the finances are weak all it takes is an external tipping point that creates serious crisis. The war in Ukraine with shortages of wheat, fertilizer and skyrocketing oil prices acted as that tipping point. Because this was a major blow the crises have a level of magnitude that is more than a payments crisis. One sees this in South Asia in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and in the Middle East for countries such as Egypt and Tunisia shown in this WSJ report. It is now not simply a crisis but a crisis of great magnitude because in the case of Sri Lanka and Pakistan this WSJ report says that both countries foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to the point where they can pay for only one or two months of imports according to central bank data, analysts and IMF. This crisis has affected countries that were seeing steady foreign investment such as Turkey for decades, then a sharp falloff in foreign investment with a change in the climate for foreign investment. The crisis has taken the form of high inflation, significant depreciation of currency that makes imports costlier so that shrinking revenues from loss of remittances, tourism, or other sources will now have less value in supporting import needs. Lack of a credible path can delay setting a path out of the crisis. The $1.5 billion fuel and electricity subsidy made by the prime minister of Pakistan in late February was done without IMF approval leading to the IMF program having to be renegotiated. Lack of national political and cultural consensus on a solution simply makes it that much more difficult to find the way through it. In this regard South Korea was able to tackle the 1997 financial payments crisis effectively because of a national consensus. The situation in Egypt- Egypt has borrowed $20 billion from the IMF since 2016., placing it second to Argentina in aid from IMF since 1980's.  In 2020 and 2021 Egypt' government spent more than 40% of its revenue servicing its debt, and is forecast to do the same in 2022. The situation in Tunisia- A shortage of sugar, flour, and other critical supplies, and government delaying wage payments to civil servants. The government got $400 million in financing last month from the World Bank and hopes to secure a lifeline from the IMF. Compared to the period between the 2 World Wars the two bright spots are China and India where lessons of the past of civil wars, religious or political conflict, and poor governance, lack of knowledge of how the western countries industrialized and modernized, was replaced with the conviction that drives patient effort, courage in the face of adversity, honesty, and humility to learn including from western countries that have forged their own path through the same difficult road. The most difficult experiences have offered lessons which were learned- for South Korea the Korean War and invasion from the north, China the civil war and Japanese invasion, for India the partition of India and million of refugees. Stagnation from stumbled efforts also taught lessons, the Great Leap Forward in China, the License Raj with corruption in India.       ...

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Favorable reaction in London, Munich and places like Pakistan for Obama and America's relationships with other countries.

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India imports 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia. It now faces the need to address the problem this has created for Germany and US seeking an end to Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. Without other leverage DJT and indirectly Germany are putting pressure on India to shift these purchases to the US and cut India's $46 billion deficit with the US.  India needs to accept that the reprieve it got during the covid years to import from Russia to help it control inflation at home would at some time come under increasing pressure from the US. That time may be now as DJT and Merz see this as the only few areas of leverage they have to get Russia to reconsider its position for settling the Ukraine war entirely on its terms. Just as in the India Pakistan war the current talk of nuclear escalation resulting from the Ukraine war has to be a major consideration for US, EU, Russia, China and India, all the world's leaders, to step back and see ways to work for an overall interest than in time to come will help these nations national interests.  It will require brave moves from India, China, the US and Russia. Yet this is the new course that alone can bring a return to a world focused on modernization and improving the lives of the people of these nations. ...

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It is important for a correct sense of the Middle East to see these British Arab states from Kuwait to UAE and Qatar in the context of British India if one is to see them as part of the modern world as India is. This is now US policy under DJT and has been under Biden for a peaceful economically advanced region. A third of Arabian peninsula Arab protectorates were run from British India from 1800 onwards. The Interpretation Act of 1889 listed the states under British India in the Arabian peninsula including Kuwait, Bahrain, Aden now Yemen, Oman, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and they were listed along with Jaipur, Hyderabad and Bhawalpur. British Prime minister Clement Attlee wanted to give independence to these Arab states along with the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947. But this did not happen till 1971. In 1937 the first of many separations from the British Empire in India of Arab states was announced. Aden, now Yemen, was separated from the British Empire in India to the Colonial Empire. British Empire authorites in Delhi never wanted to administer these Arab states even though the British Indian Political Service ran each of these states till 1971. They were very poor and lacking basic infrastructure, things changed only after the discovery of oil in late 1930's. ...

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The 22 states that formed the state of Rajasthan 22 months after independence in 1947 were part of the Rajputana Agency under the British Empire in India. It spanned 330,000 square kilometres with an agent under the Governor General in charge at Mount Abu. All had Hindu rulers except Tonk and most of them were Rajput except for Jat rulers in Bharatpur and Dholpur. These states were not affected by the 1857 revolt against British rule because they remained loyal to the British. Sardar Patel, deputy prime minister, headed the States Ministry with VP Menon as Secretary. The integration to form the new state happened in stages. The first union was the Matsya Union of Alwar, Bharatpur, Dholpur, Karauli, at the eastern edge of the Rajputana Agency by March 18, 1948. Nine other states near Udaipur in the south east merged to form the Rajasthan Union by March 25, 1948. On March 30, 1949, Patel pulled in 4 states bordering Pakistan, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, and Bikaner into Greater Rajasthan. The Matsya Union was merged into this state. In 1956 under States Reorganization Act Ajmer was added from federal rule and Abu Taluk was integrated into Rajasthan. ...

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Inherent conflicts between views of Reidel, Biden and other policy advisors such Richard Holbrooke, all wary of Hamid Karzai's government in Afghanistan and General McChrystal -whose experience in tactical strategy was his strong point, not an overall perspective that took into account factors outside US control such as the people, their history, recent history, the terrain, lack of viable government, neighboring Pakistan- spill out into the open. Holbrooke, the special ambassador to the South Asian region has serious differences over Karzai with ambassador to Kabul, Eikenberrry, and with Jones, National Security Advisor. Eikenberry has his own differences with Karzai. See the group "Eikenberry Cables," which provides his cable reports from Afghanistan which talk about Karzai, the Afghan military, and the prospects there, in bleak terms. The same Eikenberry is shown here telling Jones that Holbrooke's chilled relations with Karzai are not helping, and Jones assuring Eikenberry that Holbrooke is on the way out. Followed by Secretary of State Clinton supporting Hilbrooke by talking to Obama. See also the group "April 2010 Biannual Defense Departmet Report on Afghanistan," which shows that of 92 districts surveyed none supported the Karzai government, somethig that must cause policy team members to pause and think....

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Brazil's ever increasing production of soyabeans and investments in Brazil by China and US's Cargill ADM result in a oversupply of soyabeans in world's markets leading to lower prices for American farmers. 70% of soyabeans imports by China were from Brazil in 2024 and Cofco state owned agricultural company in China is building a large port terminal on Brazil's coast to handle soyabeans and other exports. Trade tensions with the US mean there are no written agreements farmers can count on for soyabean exports to China. China purchased 13 million metric tons from Argentina last month and committed to buying 25 million metric tons in 2026-2028. Argentina lifted its 26% export tax for the first $7 billion in agricultural exports to bolster it's peso recently. US is turning to other markets in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Europe to make up for volume lost to Brazil. For September and October there is a 45% increase in US exports in 2025 resulting from these non-Chinese buyers. No mention is made of India, yet India could in future be a significant buyer of soyabeans because of thenutritional value of soyabeans in an anti-cancer diet and the high protein content which would make Indian diets healthier. In agriculture farmers are not the ones who develop new tastes and new trends in new markets, yet this effort should be part of farmer's outreach to other nations and other cultural food habits with shifts to healthy nutrition. ...