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Pierre Poilievre gained prominence when he supported the Canadian truckers strike in 2022.  That year he was elected leader of the of the Conservatives party of Canada. In March 2022 the Conservative party crossed the Liberals with popularity at 32%. The NDP coalition ally of the Liberals was at 17%. Starting March 2024 the Liberals took a huge slide in the polls to 25% with Conservatives gaining to reach 42%.  The issues about cost of living, the Border and transgender culture issues resonate in Canada in the same way that they do with Americans. Voters say they can't afford gas at the pump and groceries. Pierre Poilevre has emerged as a leader of Conservatives at a point when for the first time since the 1980's it has a 20% point margin over the Liberals and Trudeau. There is also the issue of who will be best at negotiating on the tariffs issue with the DJT administration in the US. DJT does not take Trudeau seriously calling Canada the 51st state. ...

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An assessment of progress in free trade and generating jobs in N. America under the NAFTA agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The agreement was signed under President Clinton in 1994. NAFTA removed existing tariffs on over half of the exports from Mexico to the U.S. and phased out remaining tariffs between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The U.S. had two way trade of $918 billion with Canada and Mexico in 2010, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Canada is the U.S.'s top trading partner, with $462 billion in trade through Sept. 2012, and U.S. trade with Mexico- expected to overtake China- is at $369 billion in the same 9 month period of 2012.

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Key donors to the Republican Party, the billionaires Charles and David Koch,  say they will conduct a grass roots campaign against the Trump administration's use of tariffs. Charles Koch is 82, and David Koch is 78 years old. The Koch brothers groups launching the campaign are - Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, Americans for Prosperity, and the LIBRE Initiative. David Koch ran in 1980 as vice presidential candidate for the Libertarian Party. Both brothers are free trade advocates.

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France's finance minister Bruno Le Maire announces a $45 billion effort to cap energy price increases for electricity and gas to 15% increase. Earlier efforts had capped the increase to 4% till the end of 2022 in a tariff shield (bouclier tarifaire). France's public accounts minister says the budget being presented is "a budget to protect." Windfall taxes on energy companies will reduce the cost of the $45 billion to $12 billion. Other protection is offered in the form of increasing income tax brackets by 5% to lower the tax burden. In the absence of this effort the energy prices could have increased by more than 60%, says the Finance Ministry.

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At a videoconference between DJT and European leaders on Aug. 14, 2025, initiated by Germany's Merz , it was decided that no territory exchanges are to be discussed at DJT Putin meeting in Alaska. DJT and the Europeans will simply seek an immediate ceasefire followed by talks between Zelensky and Putin with DJT offering to be there to mediate differences. DJT says there will be strong sanctions on Russia in the event no ceasefire is reached. Legislation in Congress with 80 senators on board a clear majority of both parties is for putting a 500% tariff on countries such as China and India that import Russian oil. These imports exceed $100 billion each for China and India. DJT has placed a 50% duty on India if negotiations do not yield results on this issue. This is seen in Congress as fueling the continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine.

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Foxconn Technology Group, largest assembler of iPhones, plans to reduce its dependence on Chinaby building plants in India. Foxconn head, Terry Gou, plant to visit India after next month. The continued trade tensions between U.S. and China are leading to many companies looking at diversifying their supply chains away from China.Manufacturing high end phones in India would help Apple get around the 20% tariff on imported phones because Apple is losing market share with its high prices. Foxconn already makes phones in India for Xiaomi. Foxconn is also looking at Vietnam.

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Michigan governor Whitmer at Michigan's Selfridge Air Force Base with DJT on April 29, 2025. Selfridge base will be continued with 15 new fighter jets to replace old jets. DJT says Whitmer successfully lobbied for the base in the White House. Whitmer works with DJT on issues that relate to tariffs, the auto industry in Michigan, defense, and restoring the Nation's industrial base.

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11 Pacific Rim nations form the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018. The Obama administration supported the trade pact alienating supporters in its union base particularly in the midwestern states. Mr. Trump opposed the TPP in his election campaign and made it a significant issue for swing voters in midwestern states after job losses in the auto industry. With the opposition of president Trump the U.S. decided to withdraw from TPP.  The 11 nations agreeing to join a revised agreement are Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. So far six countries have formally approved the deal, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Singapore, New Zealand and Japan, setting the stage for two rounds of tariff reductions starting December 30, 2018. Agricultural products duties will be duty free within 3 to 7 years including for Japan and Mexico. Australia, New Zealand, Canada are major agricultural exporters. Japan supported the deal as a way to counter China's influence in the region. In the U.S. the gains would be in intellectual property rights but losses for workers in the auto and manufacturing industries, a point Mr. Trump recognized in his election campaign as he campaigned in the midwestern states. Mr. Obama pursued TPP over objections of workers organizations and unions including auto workers union, with his advisors suggesting this as a way to counter China's influence in the region. By 2018 the Democratic party support base fractured on this as one of the major issues.   ...

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China's exports bring in about a fifth of the 6.2% growth recorded for the first half of this year, according to this report in the WSJ. This means the tariffs on most exports to the U.S. is likely to affect the Chinese economy and its growth rate in the future. 

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DJT says on Truth Social site on Feb 27, 2025-

“Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels. Tariffs would go into effect until it stops, or is seriously limited."

Asked about military strikes to stop illegal fentanyl flows, Defense Secretary Hegseth says- "We’re taking nothing off the table. Nothing.” 

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Fed chairman Powell says inflation is just a bit above 2%, the employment market is strong, and the US economy is in good shape in remarks after Fed decision to keep Fed rates unchanged. The Fed is monitoring the situation carefully including the uncertainty regarding tariffs. The coming weeks and months will show what progress is made with the important trading partners of the US on bilateral trade treaties, says Powell. 

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China is still interested in a trade deal with the U.S. even after Mr. Trump signed a bill passed by Congress that it criticized as interference in its internal affairs. Mr. Trump's signing statement gave China an opening to continue its persistent effort to seek a trade deal that would lessen the effect of tariffs on its economy. It mentioned "constitutional authorities with respect to foreign relations," and stated Mr. Trump had signed the bill "out of respect for Mr. Xi, China and Hong Kong." This has credibility because Mr. Trump has consistently supported an effort to bring a peaceful end to protests and any efforts to that end that Mr. Xi has and would continue to make. Both sides see the role of the biggest economies in the trading system as too significant to be affected by different views on Hong Kong, as long as mutual respect is sustained.  

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Australian prime minister Scott Morrison says "global health trumps everything else," that " we need to have the information, and we need to have the transparency." Australia is seeking support from other countries in an effort to launch an investigation into missteps early in the crisis that have led to the epidemic spreading to millions of people around the world. China has rejected such an investigation. It has threatened retaliation with a consumer boycott of Australian beef and wine, and tariffs on barley. Australia tightened its laws on foreign interference and counterespionage in 2018. U.S. and European calls for an investigation into coronavirus origins is making Australia reconsider its trading relationship dependence on China. India has stepped up its vigilance of Chinese investment so that state backed entities do not acquire local companies affected by the pandemic. Japan has set aside $2.2 billion of its pandemic support package to help Japanese companies shift their supply chains out of China. ...

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The U.S. and India face difficult trade negotiations as India moves to build its Make in India campaign, building capabilities of Indian manufacturing companies for global supply chains. Mr. Trump will sign a $3 billion defense deal with India for supplying helicopters and other equipment to India. Indian policy on trade is to ensure local content and transfer of technology to build capabilities of local companies. The goodwill generated by the visit by Mr. Trump to India, and deals on defense could lead to agreement on other trade issues, as India and the U.S. balance other considerations such as the rise of China into the picture. This will take time and is likely to be done after the elections. Differences on tariffs will continue in the same way that differences with China led only to a partial deal, with contentious trade issues on technology left for the future.

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President Biden is determined to stop the further loss of jobs in the US. He has sent Yellen to China to communicate this. India, the UK and Argentina are opening investigations into China's dumping of goods in their countries. Chile is considering new tariffs. Brazil and Indonesia are feeling the impact. They are joining the EU and the US to fight the danger posed by dumping by China. To offset a large property market bust China is pushing more investment in factories leading to overcapacity in markets, much of the product then ends up at lower prices in other markets around the world putting companies out of business in home countries and loss of millions of jobs. Couldn't other countries do the same. The US is taking that approach to support its own industries. Economists and business leaders in the US who have never felt the pain from factories closing have let America down with textbook theory that ignored this leading to the loss of 2 million jobs in the 2000 era, with failed presidents since then ceding American advantage in manufacturing.  ...

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China says its students are subject to harsh questioning when coming to the US, and these students face racial discrimination in the US. 105,000 student visas for Chinese students were issued by the US embassy in Beijing and consulates in China in 2023 as the pandemic recedes and normal exchange relations resume. About 50,000 exchange program participants in the US are expected to visit China over 5 years. Nicholas Burns, 68 years, is the new US ambassador to China in April 2022. As the mood changes in the US with both presidential candidates ramping up their stand on trade with China and tariffs, US China relations face headwinds after the normalization of US-China relations following the pandemic, when Xi and Biden met in San Francisco in 2023. Chinese student facing racial discrimination in the US and the difficulties with learning English pose serious problems for Chinese students which Nicholas Burns in a diplomat sheltered world may have no idea of. This applies to students from mainland China and Taiwan alike. Burns may have too hastily dismissed this side of the perspective from Xi Jinping. ...

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In a major effort to halt increased missile attacks on Kviv and Ukraine by Russia DJT makes a decision to send Patriot anti missile systems to Ukraine financed by Germany. “It’ll be business for us, and we will send them Patriots, which they desperately need, because Putin really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice, and then he bombs everybody in the evening. There’s a little bit of a problem there, and I don’t like it.” In Congress Senators Graham and Blumenthal have 85 Senators behind a bill to support Ukraine and place penalties of upto 500% tariffs on countries that support Russia in its war effort by buying oil -including China, India and Brazil. Graham says- "China, India and Brazil buy oil and petroleum products and other goods from Russia—that’s the money Putin uses to prosecute the war.” Graham adds- "the U.S. had reached a turning point regarding Russia.” ...

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U.S. imports exceeded exports by a record $914 billion in 2018, increasing from $859 billion in 2017, according to the Commerce Department. The trade deficit is now 16% larger than when Mr. Trump took office. President Trump's tax policies with large fiscal deficits acted as a large stimulus to imports. Companies imported more. 

The dollar strengthened as the U.S. fiscal stimulus came at a time when the rest of the world economy was slowing. As a result the U.S. imported more. 

The tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods had one benefit - it brought the Chinese to the negotiating table to cut imports. Yet the trade deficit has not narrowed as the president planned. 

 

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Young people are priced out of owning a house in Canada, A house on average costs $C715,000 and average income is $C88,000. A room can cost $1500 monthly to rent near campus. Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto housing costs even more. This is still the main issue in the election along with tariffs by the US. Conservatives are better placed to find solutions. Shortages are estimated to require construction of 3.8 million houses over 6 years.

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The rise of Japan was a major challenge for president Reagan in the 1980's in the way president Trump is confronting the rise of China. The Reagan administration obtained the concessions it needed from Japan. The negotiator for the U.S. side during the Reagan years - Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer is using his experience in winning concessions from Japan in his role as top trade negotiator with China.  As the WSJ points out Japan ceased to be a threat to the U.S. faster than anyone thought possible. 

But there is one problem even if this happens the warning is that the imbalances with Japan simply transferred over time to China. The warning is for America's tendency to spend money it does not have, and for how long.

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Years of low prices for soybeans and corn with competition from Russia and Brazil, combined with tariff war with China roiling agricultural markets, are leading to the highest bankruptcies in a decade for farmers in the U.S. in 2019. Dairy farmers are hit too with low milk prices.

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Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the result of changes in supply chains away from China, and the new trading relationship with China to 2028. He says the shift to a new global supply chain that diversifies it away from concentration in China is taking place. Would taking the tariffs from 30% to 60% under a new Trump administration be a good idea? Greg Ip thinks it is a bad idea as the change is gradual and is actually taking place. It may have the unintended effect of worsening US China relations essential for global stability when it is coupled with erratic or retaliatory rhetoric. Rhetoric that appears to China that it is being singled out in world trade beyond what are changes that have taken place with Japan in the past in trade. The Biden administration is for good reasons working to restore a balanced yet stable relationship with China. Apple is shifting production of 25% of iPhones to India. Samsung is investing more in Vietnam. The trade deficit with Mexico has reached $151 billion twice as large as in 2017. And $100 billion with Vietnam three times as large as 2017. The US trade deficit with China has dropped from $381 billion to $281 billion in the last 12 months, the Commerce Department reports show. And from $1.1 trillion with the whole world from $1.2 trillion for the last 12 months, 4% of US GDP. Overall the Trump era tariffs of 30% have not reduced the US  trade deficit substantially but has shifted American and European foreign investment to India, Vietnam, Mexico and other countries as well as to the home country. Over time the supply chain would become truly diversified as India makes great strides to become the third largest economy with new infrastructure by 2030. The head emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, Joerg Wuttke, says the pressure to export will be high for China as its economy shifts more to manufacturing from construction. Most Chinese companies are producing more than internal demand in China, and most companies in solar are losing money, in wind turbines and solar all are losing money, Wuttke says. This means China will double down and increase its investments in Mexico, Vietnam, Morocco and other countries so that it can send its products to the US through third countries that do the final export. One expert even says removing a few screws here and some there, find a different supplier, and shipping to a third party for final export that makes it not 100% Chinese content, the pressure for that is high. ...

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A second term Trump-Vance will face uphill risks and a mess in economics from a Trumpian Republican party and Congress, says WSJ. WSJ Editorial Board says a second Trump term is not without risks. Tariffs cost 1.1% in annual growth in the Trump first term says WSJ, and it did have an impact on inflation. It would have had greater impact on inflation with the supply chain crisis of Biden's first term, had this supply chain crisis happened in Trump's first term. A second term Trump-Vance support tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports which would have a bigger effect on inflation and economic growth than of the first term. The key difference is that with tax cuts a basic rule for Republican policies Trump-Vance second term would not invest in infrastructure the way Mr. Biden has done and Biden will do so in a second term. As a result the economic growth is likely to be greater and inflation smaller under a Biden administration. Trillions of dollars in investment in the economy and infrastructure under Biden in a second term will be missing in a Trump-Vance tax cuts administration policy. And with it hundreds of thousand of jobs created each quarter will be missing in Trump-Vance second term. Add to this the level of clarity of stable economic policy under a Biden second term and contrast it with some of the chaos in economic policy of a Trump-Vance second term. The basic contradiction between tax cuts policy and the nation's need for infrastructure spending/rebuilding under a Republican under Trump administration will not go away, present a huge stumbling block. Chaotic policy could come from Project 2025 that says consider abolishing the US central bank Federal Reserve. This kind of erratic and unwise policy proposals are clearly not happening under Biden and Yellen. Another key difference is the cost to the economy of delays of several years in doing nothing for climate in Trump-Vance 2024-2028. Severe effects on climate if nothing is done could cause acceleration of climate negative costs which a future economy under Democrats would face, in reality the Nation would face. America's Business has taken a short term approach to climate change, when the time comes to pay the costs of short term thinking it assumes it is somebody else's problem- this happened with supply chain concentration in China the burden falling on the middle and lower classes, it would happen again with missing climate change action under Trump-Vance second term. ...