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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that the Trump administration tariffs and the response from China with tariffs of its own, are not the beginning of a trade war but negotiating tactics of both sides. Behind the scenes and behind the declarations and position statements both sides are talking to each other and considering the options open to each. The U.S. position is that China has emerged with a bigger share of the global economy by dumping products, subsidizing its industries from solar panels to high tech ventures, and stealing American technology by forcing U.S. firms into joint ventures that increase pass through of advanced technology. U.S. firms seeking access to the Chinese market or using China as a manufacturing base such as Boeing, Apple, GE and other high tech companies are in ventures or manufacturing arrangements where China has access to advanced American technology. Nathaniel Taplin in his article in the WSJ also sees this as a negotiating position set out in the U.S. for talks with China. Taplin says the U.S. is in a stronger position in this negotiation because of the huge surplus of about $300 billion that China now has with the U.S., and which is increasing in 2018 with the strength of the dollar. The Trump administration is looking to correct the trade imbalance in the future by focussing on China's access to advanced U.S. technologies in the next phase of competition between the U.S., Europe and China. This limited objective is more likely to lead to concessions by China Taplin argues, because of two reasons. China needs the dynamism of U.S. firms and technology advances because these firms and Chinese firms that are getting foreign investment are the most productive part of the Chinese economy with jobs generated, rate of return about twice that of inefficient state run firms. China also needs access to advanced U.S. and European technologies even in a limited form as it pursues further modernization.   ...

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Greg Ip points out in this WSJ analysis that the new NAFTA after negotiations and warnings from Mr. Trump to scrap NAFTA, is not very different from the old NAFTA. Mexico made concessions on auto exports and labor rights, wages. Canada made concessions for the dairy industry. Yet the combined influence of business interests, Canada's lobbying in U.S. Congress and state governments, and the restraint shown by Trump's own advisers prevailed in limiting Mr. Trump's tendencies to go for a "America first" agenda. It shows, says Ip, that there is resilience in the existing order.  It also shows what future trade negotiations with the European Union and Japan over steel and autos could look like. President Trump will continue to face resistance within from his advisers and from exporters, business, Congress, on following an exclusively "America First" agenda. President Trump will need to extol NAFTA in its current version the USMCA, U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, to get it through the U.S. Congress in 2019.   Mexico's main concessions on autos were to agree to potential tariffs if exports exceed 2.6 million vehicles.  This keeps Mexico's status as a major auto export hub intact. Auto experts say VW and Mazda may simply pay the tariff of 2.5% for lower priced models assembled in Mexico that do not qualify for duty free entry instead of shifting production to the U.S. Current shipments from Mexico are not affected as U.S. demand is weak. Labor rights and higher wages in Mexico's auto industry are a win-win for Mexico and the U.S.. They are supported by the socialist administration of newly elected Mexican president Obrador. Canada's main concession was to expand U.S. access to Canada's protected dairy industry, with Canada already prepared to make the concession. Mr. Trump had also to consider the possibility that excluding Canada from the USMCA would have not passed Congress, and face even more resistance in a Democratic controlled Congress after 2019 elections.  The support Canada has received in Congress does not extend to China, which gets much less support in Congress, leading to higher uncertainty in the negotiations with China and possibly different outcome with the size of the trade imbalance of $1 billion a day factored in.   ...

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Following president Trump's decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 9, 2019, the WSJ looks at the mistakes made by both sides in misjudging each other's negotiating position. Mr. Trump says he is willing to increase the pressure on China by imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports into the U.S. after what he sees as China reneging on its commitments on trade by deleting key sections on enforcement provisions and Chinese legislation for enforcement to take place in the 150 page agreement prepared for both presidents to sign.  Early on in the negotiations between Liu He and Mr. Lighthizer, China misread the thinking on the U.S. side. Chinese thinking was that president Trump's urging for the Federal Reserve to lower rates was a perception sign of the weakening U.S. economy. It also may have misread the extent to which Mr. Trump trusts Mr. Robert Lighthizer, who Mr. Trump respects for winning a good deal with the Japanese in similar situation of Japanese rejection of U.S. demands. Mr. Trump also thinks the U.S. has a strong economy, is the largest world producer of oil, strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2018, is also negotiating better deals with other countries including the ones with Mexico, Canada and South Korea. It is also much less dependent on exports to China, giving it a stronger position with more experienced negotiators. China has whole sectors of its economy dependent on exports to the U.S., and crucial numbers of jobs at stake.  China also misread the signals from its stronger than expected economic growth from stimulus efforts in the last quarter, leading to it staking out a tougher position than the U.S. would accept. The U.S. position was set after decades of waiting for China to change and was unlikely to be affected by any temporary considerations.  As a result the U.S. not anticipating the Chinese response of deleting key sections agreed to in advance from the 150 page written agreement gave a strong response. Mr. Mnuchin who accompanied Lighthizer in talks says Mr. Lighthizer "read them the riot act" to the Chinese side. For the Chinese side the effort now shifted to continuing good faith talks without appearing to back down. ...

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President Trump has taken a careful response to events in Hong Kong so that the situation does not affect U.S. China trade talks and tariffs negotiations. For the first time he tweeted that China's restraint would be reciprocated by the U.S.

Mr. Trump has described the Hong situation as "a tricky situation," and has called for the protests to be handled "humanely." He tweeted- "I know President Xi of China very well. He is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people. He is also a good man in a 'tough business.' I have ZERO doublt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem he can do it." Concluding "Personal meeting?"

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Japan believes it can get what it wants through the negotiating style it adopted with Reagan and then Deputy Trade Rep. Lighthizer. It won't work. There is a new US president who know's Japan's approach to trade, and the US has a lot more experience with Lighthizer and Jamieson Greer his deputy running negotiations with Scott Bessent, some 45 years later.

DJT to Japan: “Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story. You’re going to pay a 25% tariff on your cars, you know? So we give Japan no cars. They won’t take our cars.”

US says it will just send that message to Japan in a letter if it won't negotiate a level playing field and fairness in world trade.

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US president Biden will give his farewell address on Jan 15 at 8 pm Eastern Time. It marks a vital point in a five decade career of public service, unprecedented in US history. Its impact is huge coming at the time of Covid pandemic and at a turning point in rebuilding America's infrastructure. What Biden missed was that migration needed to be brought under control taking immediate action as a top priority in 2021, not getting blindsided by the fact that Republicans were using strong language and the issue had become politicized. Biden did this for tariffs with China in 2020 keeping most of the DJT tariffs, he could have done the same keeping the basic border policies of the DJT administration and negotiating with Republicans in 2021 when he was in a good position to have legislation passed. Which he did late by Feb 2024 with Senator Lankford and Republicans but failed to get it through in the primary election season, by then too late. ...

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One fifth of Kviv's population of 3 million has left the city, 4000 apartment buildings are without electricity in Kviv, this winter January 2026. This is the worst of the last couple of winters of the war, as Russia attacks energy infrastructure in Kviv on a large scale even as peace talks continue. Russia insists on control of Donbas region. Much of Ukraine today remembers a famine from the Soviet period, Russia remembers its proud history, language and culture from its beginnings in the Kviv region around the 14th century, that is the what this conflict is about. On one dimension it is about NATO and European Union expansion on another about the history and culture, language in a Russian language part of the world and the effort of Ukraine in the 21st century to seek a new identity. It is a struggle between fraternal people in the Russian region and in that sense a tragedy. It doesn't have to be one for Europe, for Germany. NATO was created when the Soviet Union expanded after 1948 and Britain was a key protagonist of NATO. Would its disbanding after Soviet Union disbanded leaving Russia as a country with centuries of its own history, would this have been the right action. If needed a new organization with a new name and Russia invited to join, would this have helped? Could this have focused attention on a new power as chancellor Merz has said, the new power being China being something requiring attention. The US is beginning to have new thoughts in this winter on 2026. The northern European nations (Britain, Poland, Finland and the Nordic countries, Baltics) have historical conflicts for centuries among themselves, they appear to be using NATO for their own historical conflicts. The US understands this, it is looking for a way to get a peace settlement so it can focus on the western hemisphere and not entangle itself in northern European conflicts that have been happening since 1600 with changing actors. The Republican have taken the lead under DJT for a new approach to put American people and their wellbeing, their right to live free of drugs(Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia), to live free of illegal migrants (Guatemala, Mexico, Venezuela), and improve on the shaky supply chains that were concentrated in China to bring jobs home that were lost by the millions (tariff policy), and to make living affordable (energy, agriculture).  ...

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In this economy there is wide divergence in the US for upper income people earning well on assets they own at 5%+ for extra income and the lower middle classes wage earners that are struggling even with low unemployment and inflation at 3%. WSJ looks at these two divergent parts of the US economy and what can be done. Inflation could be worse with higher Trump tariffs on imports, says WSJ. The situation is a difficult one for families struggling even with higher incomes, as this one in Michigan in the WSJ, that finds it necessary to take money out of savings with prices higher but not reflected in inflation statistics of 3%. One example is higher housing and apartment rental costs with 25% of families having to spend over 50% of their income on home rental leaving little for food and expenses. President Biden has called for limiting price increases on home and apartment rentals to 5%, and Harris has proposed aid for families spending more than 30% of household income on housing costs. Strong action is needed. ...

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During a critical 4 weeks in March 9 to April 9, 2025 Germany finds itself without a newly elected government following elections Feb 23, 2025. Only on April 9 is a new CDU/CSU and SPD coalition government in place led by CDU chancellor Merz. Tariffs came to the forefront, the critical issues of world trade and the effect on stock markets, without an elected government in place in Berlin to speak for the European Union and participate in discussions.  Japan's Ishiba and India's Modi offered the US some support as it sought to restore the world trading system to where it was before the serious distortions from China joining the WTO. Much of it the result of American companies outshoring American manufacturing and turning their backs on American workers, and the dignity and pride of workers who rebuilt the US and Europe, and Asia after the Depression and the Second World War.

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What US companies did not get early on is that as China's economy advanced local companies could make the same products for less and innovate to take a big share of the market. Ford exited China and GM took  $5 billion charge on its China business. Chinese makers of cars, EV's, laptops and cell phones have the major share of the market. In 2024 US companies chastened by their experience and failing to compete in China are reticent about tariffs impacting their market share in China. Other reasons China was growing at over 10% in the last year of Obama's second term. In 2024 China is struggling to reach 5%.  Following Covid, housing industry collapse, as US and Europe block China's exports, China's public is growing wary of spending. There are only 800 Americans studying in China in 2024 compared to 11,000 in 2019. There are 290,000 Chinese students in US. ...

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Pierre Poilievre gained prominence when he supported the Canadian truckers strike in 2022.  That year he was elected leader of the of the Conservatives party of Canada. In March 2022 the Conservative party crossed the Liberals with popularity at 32%. The NDP coalition ally of the Liberals was at 17%. Starting March 2024 the Liberals took a huge slide in the polls to 25% with Conservatives gaining to reach 42%.  The issues about cost of living, the Border and transgender culture issues resonate in Canada in the same way that they do with Americans. Voters say they can't afford gas at the pump and groceries. Pierre Poilevre has emerged as a leader of Conservatives at a point when for the first time since the 1980's it has a 20% point margin over the Liberals and Trudeau. There is also the issue of who will be best at negotiating on the tariffs issue with the DJT administration in the US. DJT does not take Trudeau seriously calling Canada the 51st state. ...

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An assessment of progress in free trade and generating jobs in N. America under the NAFTA agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The agreement was signed under President Clinton in 1994. NAFTA removed existing tariffs on over half of the exports from Mexico to the U.S. and phased out remaining tariffs between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The U.S. had two way trade of $918 billion with Canada and Mexico in 2010, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Canada is the U.S.'s top trading partner, with $462 billion in trade through Sept. 2012, and U.S. trade with Mexico- expected to overtake China- is at $369 billion in the same 9 month period of 2012.

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Key donors to the Republican Party, the billionaires Charles and David Koch,  say they will conduct a grass roots campaign against the Trump administration's use of tariffs. Charles Koch is 82, and David Koch is 78 years old. The Koch brothers groups launching the campaign are - Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, Americans for Prosperity, and the LIBRE Initiative. David Koch ran in 1980 as vice presidential candidate for the Libertarian Party. Both brothers are free trade advocates.

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France's finance minister Bruno Le Maire announces a $45 billion effort to cap energy price increases for electricity and gas to 15% increase. Earlier efforts had capped the increase to 4% till the end of 2022 in a tariff shield (bouclier tarifaire). France's public accounts minister says the budget being presented is "a budget to protect." Windfall taxes on energy companies will reduce the cost of the $45 billion to $12 billion. Other protection is offered in the form of increasing income tax brackets by 5% to lower the tax burden. In the absence of this effort the energy prices could have increased by more than 60%, says the Finance Ministry.

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Foxconn Technology Group, largest assembler of iPhones, plans to reduce its dependence on Chinaby building plants in India. Foxconn head, Terry Gou, plant to visit India after next month. The continued trade tensions between U.S. and China are leading to many companies looking at diversifying their supply chains away from China.Manufacturing high end phones in India would help Apple get around the 20% tariff on imported phones because Apple is losing market share with its high prices. Foxconn already makes phones in India for Xiaomi. Foxconn is also looking at Vietnam.

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At a videoconference between DJT and European leaders on Aug. 14, 2025, initiated by Germany's Merz , it was decided that no territory exchanges are to be discussed at DJT Putin meeting in Alaska. DJT and the Europeans will simply seek an immediate ceasefire followed by talks between Zelensky and Putin with DJT offering to be there to mediate differences. DJT says there will be strong sanctions on Russia in the event no ceasefire is reached. Legislation in Congress with 80 senators on board a clear majority of both parties is for putting a 500% tariff on countries such as China and India that import Russian oil. These imports exceed $100 billion each for China and India. DJT has placed a 50% duty on India if negotiations do not yield results on this issue. This is seen in Congress as fueling the continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine.

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Michigan governor Whitmer at Michigan's Selfridge Air Force Base with DJT on April 29, 2025. Selfridge base will be continued with 15 new fighter jets to replace old jets. DJT says Whitmer successfully lobbied for the base in the White House. Whitmer works with DJT on issues that relate to tariffs, the auto industry in Michigan, defense, and restoring the Nation's industrial base.

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11 Pacific Rim nations form the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018. The Obama administration supported the trade pact alienating supporters in its union base particularly in the midwestern states. Mr. Trump opposed the TPP in his election campaign and made it a significant issue for swing voters in midwestern states after job losses in the auto industry. With the opposition of president Trump the U.S. decided to withdraw from TPP.  The 11 nations agreeing to join a revised agreement are Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. So far six countries have formally approved the deal, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Singapore, New Zealand and Japan, setting the stage for two rounds of tariff reductions starting December 30, 2018. Agricultural products duties will be duty free within 3 to 7 years including for Japan and Mexico. Australia, New Zealand, Canada are major agricultural exporters. Japan supported the deal as a way to counter China's influence in the region. In the U.S. the gains would be in intellectual property rights but losses for workers in the auto and manufacturing industries, a point Mr. Trump recognized in his election campaign as he campaigned in the midwestern states. Mr. Obama pursued TPP over objections of workers organizations and unions including auto workers union, with his advisors suggesting this as a way to counter China's influence in the region. By 2018 the Democratic party support base fractured on this as one of the major issues.   ...

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China's exports bring in about a fifth of the 6.2% growth recorded for the first half of this year, according to this report in the WSJ. This means the tariffs on most exports to the U.S. is likely to affect the Chinese economy and its growth rate in the future. 

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After making headlines the issue of TikTok is no longer making news. Here is what has happened since- TikTok took the case to the Supreme Court after the Biden Administration's effort to bring it under US security with American ownership. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government. Social media helped Republicans and DJT in the election. DJT wanted TiTok to be an American company if it was to operate in US. China was opposed to this and would not allow ByteDance the owner of TikTok negotiate this-leading to an impasse. The DJT administration worked out a relationship  with China by September 2025 following tit for tat tariffs in May 2025. Xi's strategy was to put rare earths on the table after it had gained a 90% monopoly on rare earths processing technologies and supplies. Some supplies include a site in Greenland, so that the Greenland issue as opponents of US acquisition have made appear is not fiction. DJT Administration pulled back and negotiated a deal with China but realized how the US had left key gaps in its security which is why the Greenland issue came up in 2025. Similar to how Democrat president Harry Truman had done as the Soviets expanded influence in Greece and Turkey by 1948. Little of this making it to almost the entire US press and the entire European press, including Democrat Harry Truman's 1947 offer of $100 million ($1.5 billion in 2026) for Greenland, rights, title and ownership similar to Alaska purchase by Seward, and US Virgin Islands purchase in 1916 from Denmark.   The deal makes TikTok an American/ China investor run company with Byte Dance ownership of 20%, Oracle 15%, Silverlake US equity firm 15%, Abu Dhabhi (UK type) MGX 15%, and prior investors 30%. Prior investors are General Atlantic, SIG, Steve Case's Revolution with JD Vance having equity, Dragoneer, NJJ Capital. The company now valued at $20 billion based on 200 million US users. Yet this does not address the dangers and damage done by social media hours for youth in the US, endless hours from education shifted to phones and social media videos. Australia has banned it for under 16 year olds, UK parliament has voted to ban, French parliament has also voted for a ban, China has strict rules that protect its youth for use specifying hours and restrictions, leaving the US and India, Brazil vulnerable to dangers of social media. Strictly speaking You Tube is considered as social media even though it serves an information function, Facebook and TikTok are where a lot of the damage to education takes place in social media. US is entirely leaving its young people especially women unprotected. Once the fentanyl issue is tackled attention will again focus on these dangers to creating good citizens in the US  with civic education if democracy is to be preserved, something endless numbers of lobbyists- which even in Teddy Roosevelt's and FDR's, JFK's days have opposed- will again oppose.     ...

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DJT says on Truth Social site on Feb 27, 2025-

“Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels. Tariffs would go into effect until it stops, or is seriously limited."

Asked about military strikes to stop illegal fentanyl flows, Defense Secretary Hegseth says- "We’re taking nothing off the table. Nothing.” 

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Fed chairman Powell says inflation is just a bit above 2%, the employment market is strong, and the US economy is in good shape in remarks after Fed decision to keep Fed rates unchanged. The Fed is monitoring the situation carefully including the uncertainty regarding tariffs. The coming weeks and months will show what progress is made with the important trading partners of the US on bilateral trade treaties, says Powell. 

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China is still interested in a trade deal with the U.S. even after Mr. Trump signed a bill passed by Congress that it criticized as interference in its internal affairs. Mr. Trump's signing statement gave China an opening to continue its persistent effort to seek a trade deal that would lessen the effect of tariffs on its economy. It mentioned "constitutional authorities with respect to foreign relations," and stated Mr. Trump had signed the bill "out of respect for Mr. Xi, China and Hong Kong." This has credibility because Mr. Trump has consistently supported an effort to bring a peaceful end to protests and any efforts to that end that Mr. Xi has and would continue to make. Both sides see the role of the biggest economies in the trading system as too significant to be affected by different views on Hong Kong, as long as mutual respect is sustained.