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Jens Hansegard interviews IKEA China head, Gillian Drakeford. Drakeford an employee of IKEA since 1988, has run the Chinese operations since 2003. She talks about how IKEA approaches the Chinese market. IKEA's Chinese sales in 2011 fiscal year ending Aug 30, were 4.9 billion RMB, 20% larger than in 2010, with 20% growth seen so far in 2012. Its plans are to open in 2nd tier cities with opening stores in Chongqing, and Wuhan. It has opened stores in Chengdu and Tianjin. The way IKEA opens stores is in partnering with its IKEA Centre Group which owns and manages shopping centres. In Wuxi, Beijing and Wuhan it will open stores with shopping centres of this type. The IKEA customer is 25-35 years in age with relatively higher incomes and education who finds a westernized lifestyle appealing. Space is a constraint, and there is the added factor of more stuff needing to be stored with more products available. A multigenerational family may live on 70-90 square metres. IKEA's challenge is to show how to deal with limited space, keep lowering prices to remain competitive with local competitors who are catching up to new retailing trends of IKEA type stores. Because Chinese middle class means much lower incomes than in the EU, the key is to meet affordability goals, and keep lowering prices for value. IKEA's "Lack" table has come down from 120 yuan to 39 yuan, and since 2000 it has cut prices on average by 60%. IKEA uses China's microblogging site Weibo to reach customers- where it puts up announcements and customers ask for tips, suggestions and put up their own pictures....

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Prince Mohammed bin Salman, son of the Saudi king Salman, oversees economic policy. He says stock sales of 5% of Saudi Aramco will be used to create a sovereign wealth fund of about $2 trillion that would help create the jobs with income from overseas investments and projects at home. About three times the jobs created in 2003-2013 will be needed with the demographic changes, according to McKinsey consultants. This will act as a diversification away from oil income dependence.

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Lisa Klauser, vice president of consumer and customer solutions at Unilever NV, says its seeing recession period habits becoming a part of the normal shopping behaviour. With some consumers living from paycheck to paycheck, she says Unilever is seeing sales pickup in the first week of each month for lower priced items like Suave shampoo, Skippy peanut butter and Ragu sauce. See the link to P&G about the shift to address this change in consumer behaviour.

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In a significant development Apple plans to introduce a new iPhone in 2011 at half the price. The new iPhone will be lighter and about half the size of the current model, the iPhone 4. The reduced price would make it possible for Verizon and other carriers to subsidize most of the retail price. Apple at the current time sells iPhones to Verizon and other carriers for an averge of $625 each. A subsidized iPhone can then sold near the price point of $200 with a two year contract. Also in the works is a big revamp of the MobileMe online storage service. The service allows users to access data from a central location, and is sold for an annual subscription fee of $99. This feature gets rid of the need for a lot of memory residing on the phone itself. MobileMe would also be used for online music, social networking and other purposes. These two projects, the mass market iPhone and the new MobileMe are the two top priorities for Steve Jobs, who is still overseeing the efforts from home. Jobs went on medical leave recently. The global market share of the iPhone is only 3.4%, according to IDC. Yet it generated 39% of Apple's $26.7 billion in revenues for the last quarter of 2010. Apple's strategy is to accelerate competition in the smartphone segment. IDC says global sales of smartphones will rise 39% in 2011 to 421 millon units. Apple has sold 84.2 million iPhones since the introduction in 2007. By entering the massmarket with a better iPhone and free features on MobileMe Apple hopes to make significant inroads in 2011-2012....

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Just as the drug industry is more getting more dependent on the government with the medicare drug benefit raising the retail drug purchases paid by government to 34% in 2006 from 28% in 2005, the industry is facing more governmental scrutiny, from the FDA, from Congress from the public, and during this election campaign. Rep .Rosa DeLauro, who heads the House appropriations subcommittee that has oversight over FDA funding compares the drug industry to the tobacco industry saying that it requires the same amount of scrutiny. At the same time the drug industry is aware of the changes in the public mood and the recent controversies over drug studies, such as the one on Vytorin and other controversy. It is initiating some voluntary changes, registering clinical trial results, submitting commercials to the FDA before they air, and under pressure from medical journals registering trials before they are performed. A new law will requires and its not clear whether the drug industry is dragging its feet and then making changes when there is increasing public pressure. This is the feeling of the medical journals like the Journal of the Medical Association and the New England Journal of Medicine. JAMA's editors will be keeping up this pressure as they have more articles showing how the drug industry manipulates data and the need for public skepticism of information that comes out of the drug industry. The New England Journal editors expressed the need to publish information that helps doctors get all the available information, and not just the information from the drug industry that makes the drug look better than it really is, such as the information and analysis it provided on antidepressant medications. The chairman of the energy and commerce investigations subcommittee Rep. Stupak, finds the advertising for drugs contains information that cannot be backed up and not true ethically, medically, or legally. As this reflects the public mood look for more investigations in Congress and investigative research by the journals. On the issue of importation of drugs from Canada there is bipartisan support as both Senator McCain and Senator Clinton support importation. Clinton supports legislation that allows the FDA to approve new generic versions of biotech drugs which would lower prices of biotech drugs. And with the US consumer budget facing strains in a recession there will be increasing pressure and demands for relief in the area of drug prices, especially for the elderly and uninsured and from corporate payors. ...

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The graph showing the monthly volume of issued bonds shows that the bonds issued came to a complete halt in October 2008, leading to a collapse in this market, making consumer finance almost impossible to get. The action by the Fed to lend $600 billion to investors to buy these bonds is an effort to unclog these markets for consumer finance. It also comes as the market for cars collapsed in October, with auto loan financing difficulties a major factor in this collapse, especially for GM. The market for mortgage securities issued by Fannie and Freddie also seemed to be drying up as investors and foreign central banks shunned Fannie and Freddie, resulting in the spread over Treasury bonds for these securities issued by Fannie rising from 0.7 percentage points in September to 1.7 percentage points in October 2008. The Fed announced that it would buy $600 billion of these securities starting December 1, 2008, and hire asset managers to manage this portfolio for the Fed. Mortgage rates dropped half a point to to 5.5% on the announcement injecting some life in to housing markets. This does not help the 11.8 million homeowners under water, and those facing foreclosure, and it does not help those buyers who do not qualify for mortgages. It does help those who were responsible in their finances through the recent years and helps others refinance. So it helps those who were better off but started cracking under this economy. So it does not change the underlying fundamentals say some experts, but it does help keep some life in the housing markets say other experts. The Case-Shiller index of housing prices which declined 15.1 % in the second quarter, declined 16.6% in the third quarter, year over year. This helps keep up the prices from severe drops, but even the lower mortgage rates from this Fed action may not last as the rates dropped after the rescue of Fannie and the again started creeping upwards again. . . ...

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MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....

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Three very important point about a soda tax. First, obesity was rated as the No 1 problem of concern for business leaders at a WSJ conference for business leaders at the beginning of the Obama administration in January 2009. If obesity related costs are taken out of health care, and even though they are not collected as statistics they must be significant, it would reduce the costs of providing universal health insurance. Especially considering that most diseases are exacerbated by obesity, and in some obesity figures as one of the leading causes. Second, Centers for Disease Control Data shows that a typical person now consumes 190 calories a day from sugary drinks, up from 70 a day in the late 1970's. That 120 calorie increase, an almost threefold jump in consumption of sugary sodas, represents one-half of the total daily caloric increase during that span per person, according to C.D.C. data. This is a crucial finding. Just one product alone can cause so much disruption in people's lives. Just as thrifty ways of living are becoming popular in America, better education in schools and communities on good nutrition and eating habits can become popular to reverse the bad habits acquired in the last 20 years, habits that are careless and reckless. Third, research shows that soda drinkers are price sensitive, so that in the past when soda prices went up by 10%, consumption dropped about 8%. So a tax on sugary sodas would make sense. The huge soda sizes at fast food places are one of the signs of the excess of this age with no regard for the consequences to health. living habits....

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Carrefour CEO Oloffson talks to the WSJ. He discusses whether the hypermarket model is still valid today. Carrefour is still good on kids and baby clothing but in teenage clothing stores like H&M and Zara's are clearly stronger. Carrefour lost its focus in Europe after it responded to new laws in France that discourages price competition. Carrefour shifted to quality he says and lost some of its previous edge in pricing and its focus.

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Jim Krane of the Judge Business School at Cambridge University, points to an important development- the increasing consumption of oil in Saudi Arabia that is shrinking its ability to be a reserve supplier in the Middle East when a Iraq, a Kuwait or a Libya's oil supplies are cutoff. Saudi population and industry is growing and is using up a quarter of its oil production. Consumption is at 3 million barrels a day, more than the oil consumed in Germany, and is growing at 10% a year. Use of oil is subsidized by the government and with social spending up in Arab countries a cut in subsidies is not expected anytime soon. Projections by Jadwa Investment of Riyadh show that the reserve margin will disappear by 2020. By 2038 Chatham House in London predicts Saudi Arabia will become an importer of oil. This is important because America's sanctions against oil imports from Iran require the Saudis to step up and act as the reserve supplier. This happened with Libya, and 1.5 million barrels a day were cutoff after the revolution. Iran exports 2.2 million barrels a day. This will keep supplies tight and keep pressure on oil prices in 2012-2013....

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China's strategy for climate change action makes allowance for the need for coal as base energy, and insurance to prevent factory shutdowns from shortfalls of hydroelectric energy in drought seasons. It planned 80GW in 2024 for new coal powered plant construction. 

What should the US do? DJT and Republicans including North Dakota Governor Borghum say the US should also make some room for this in transition policy. DJT calls it "drill baby drill." Yet it is more nuanced than that, it means US will produce natural gas to supply Europe and keep gas and electricity prices down as a cost of living action. DJT knows industry has already put in plans for renewable energy production, it just won't be accelerated in ways that won't let the US economy grow. This is the rational for Alaska oil and gas and rare minerals policies shown alongside this article.

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This merger is part of a process that happened after 1970 when Penguin Books a national institution in Britain in the war years 1939-1945 was acquired by Pearson Plc, and later sold in 2013  to German publisher Bertelsmann. Penguin became a part of British culture because it sold a million cheap paperbacks at 6 pence in 1939 and continued to provide low cost access to books to all parts of the English speaking world from UK to Asia till the 1960's. The astonishing period of creativity and design of founder Allen Lane ended in 1970 after Pearson Plc focused on profitability and acquisitions. Under this new deal in 2021 a large part of the world publishing industry would come under the control of German publishing house Bertelsmann. Penguin Random House is owned by Bertelsmann and the deal would bring its rival Simon and Schuster under its control. The US Justice Department filed a lawsuit to block it. Attorney General Merrick Garland says- "American authors and consumers will pay the price of this anticompetitive merger- lower advances for authors, and ultimately fewer books and less variety for consumers." Penguin Random House already controls 22% of titles published in the US. The US publishing industry has already seen mergers leading to reduced competition. News Corp. acquired Houghton Mifflin Harcourt in May and merged it into Harper Collins. Largadere Hachette acquired Workman in September. ...

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The automobile market in the U.S. showed strong sales for Chrysler, Ford and GM in November 2011. As a result automakers expect to sell 12.7 million vehicles in 2011, 10% higher than 2010. The average age of vehicles in the U.S. is 11 years, and this is leading to more buyers coming into showrooms. Some of this demand was for prickup trucks and SUV's. Ford Explorer sales tripled from the prior year. Ford sold 26% more trucks and 9% less cars compared to the prior year November sales. Sales of Jeeps went up 50%. GM sold 31% more pickup trucks. In the past sales of trucks and SUV's slumped with rising fuel prices and a slower economy.

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Saudi price cut in November 2014 to reverse market share decline in the U.S. The Saudi share of total U.S. oil consumption declined to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013, according to EIA. This brought NYMEX price to below $80 in early Nov. 2014.

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Ford and GM employ 120,000 workers in Europe and sell roughly 4 million cars there. GM sold nearly a fourth of the 9.37 million cars it made worldwide in Europe in 2007. And 60% of these cars are small cars like theFocus and Fiesta in Europe for Ford and the Corsa and Astra in Europe for GM. The presence of a gas tax may be what makes Europeans choose smaller cars as gasoline is expensive in Europe. What makes them profitable in Europe is they are generally sold with all the features of bigger quality cars and command higher prices so that small does not mean cheap. But is there any reason that given the experience of Americans with gas prices, and a culture of energy conservation among younger and newer customers. apossible gas tax that funds public transportation projects, and the poor state of household finances, that the better appointed smaller cars that are popular in Europe cannot make their way into American homes. With all the experience with small cars in Europe are GM and Ford simply lacking both the vision and the courage to try something new with these cars when their bets with larger cars have failed....

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Experts say this is the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and it has gradually accelerated since October 2007 from a gradually unfolding housing crisis into a full blown credit markets crisis with the lack of transparency in mortgage securitization and the loss of confidence in the credit markets as mortgage securities values collapsed. The worst is still ahead as home prices have only fallen to a small extent so far and experts expect another 20% drop in prices this year and 2009. In the face of this crisis Immelt can be faulted for not using caution in his promises to the analyst community but to be so unforgiving for GE shares to fall 13% in one day and calls for breaking up the company or frustration at GE's inability to overcome what were clearly extremely unusual financial and real estate market conditions that may be a first in 40 years, is clearly overdone. Jack Welch who said he would be shocked beyond belief and shoot Immelt if he doesn't make what he promises now is also expressing some of that frustration, but beyond this is the inability to grasp the true extent of the situation in the markets that Welch never experienced first hand as he demanded and got his managers to deliver on results quarter after quarter or be fired for credibility problems ,because Welch's batting averages reflected a stretch of years where there were no crises of the magnitude of what Immelt is facing today. Upon further reflection Welch still stands by Immelt saying that this business about breaking up GE and Immelt's in trouble is crazy. And Immelt is building GE around the growth engines of the next big success stories in the growth engines of the future in Asia and the Middle East and emerging market countries of infrastructure, energy, aviation, health and environment, which would also be supported by the smaller but still significant growth of industrialized countries. And these things take time to put together a collection of winning businesses to be well positioned for future growth. Can GE accelerate sales or are there any shortcuts? Immelt doe not think so. Can he change things in a "severe and protracted" economic downturn as the Fed put it last month? Its beyond even large companies like GE....

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Ukraine's general election in March 2019 comes at a time of very low confidence in government. Only 9% have confidence in the government dropping from the 24% at the time of the 2014 protests. The problem is mainly corruption with the Wold Bank pointing out that politically connected firms control about 20% of the revenue and 25% of the assets. The major candidates Ms Tymoshenko a former president, and Mr. Poroshenko current president have about 18% support. A comedian with a television show in its third year called "Servant of the People" has about 25% support, and is leading in the polls. Lack of political experience was not an issue.The hope raised five years ago have not been realized as Ukraine suffers from crony capitalism and corruption. The war in the east has affected Ukraine's economy. Since 2013 average wages have fallen 20% to $320 a month and gas prices have gone up 8 times during a period of the conflict with Russia. The 2014 protests led to the fall of a Russian backed government, Russia taking over Crimea, and the war in the east with separatist rebels. Mr. Poroshenko's government has failed to move quickly to tackle major problems in the economy. ...

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BW's report says Housing will go back to normal by 2012. This is a better case scenario. But there are serious downside risks and unknowns. A study done by Rogoff and Reinhart shows that it takes about 6 years or longer before things return to normal after a serious crisis. This could mean 2012 is the earliest things could return to normal. And this assumes that housing demand remains at about 1.5 million homes a year as in the past, and with only about half a million homes being built now as developers scale back the difference of 1 million homes would cut into the inventory to bring demand and supply back into balance. But changing demographics with an aging population and different needs, new frugality with buyers renting for longer, and the perception that homes are not a investment, slowing immigration, all factors that could change the nature of the market and demand in housing, could lead to things dragging out for longer. BW has assumed a more optimistic level of GDP numbers from Moody's Economy.com estimates made in May 2009, with GDP declining 3% in 2009, growing 1.4% in 2010, 4.7% in 2011, and 5.8% in 2012. These estimates are on soft ground because no one really knows for sure what will happen in anumber of areas in the years ahead. In terms of deflation and inflation in the years ahead, capacity utilization is at 68% but a look at the declines in manufacturing show that some of it will be a permanent loss as in the auto manufacturing base, export markets depend on how economies in Asia and other countries are performing, a new frugality and different consumer behaviour because of debt levels at 100% of GDP could permanently lower demand to levels different from that in the past. The regional nature of the recovery in housing will still be very much present, as areas with surging population growth and areas where housing price rises were modest, from Nashville to Austin, do a lot better than California and Florida....

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This article in The Indian Express shows that even though Subhas Chandra Bose differed with Mohandas Gandhi during the late 1930's, Bose had a deep respect and affection for Gandhi in mobilizing the Indian people for Swaraj. Bose's relationship with Nehru and Patel were of people at the same level and appeared to compete for attention compared to the relationship with Gandhi which was one of mentor and follower. In the end Bose's restlessness at British refusal to negotiate Swaraj and Gandhi's patience led to Bose actively resisting British rule in 1940.  Mohandas Gandhi had deep faith in the Bhagavad Gita and believed the lines in the Bhagavad Gita where it says- "Whenever, O descendent of Bharata, there is decline of Dharma, and rise of Adharma, then I embody Myself. For the protection of the good, for the destruction of the wicked, and for the establishment of Dharma, I come into being in every age." Gandhi wrote in his Discourses on the Bhagavad Gita on November 11, 1930- "God dwells in our hearts as the holy spirit within us, and when yearning for knowledge, like Arjuna, we take our spiritual difficulties to Him, and seek his guidance, seek refuge in Him, He is ever ready to instruct us." The other way in which Gandhi differed was in his deep insights and views of the British as a people that Bose lacked. Some of this came from his days in London and some of this from his days in South Africa working with and negotiating with the British. Mohandas Gandhi says in Hind Swaraj in 1910- "The English merchants were able to get a footing in India because we encouraged them. When our princes fought among themselves they sought the help of Company Bahadur. That corporation (British East India Company) was vested alike in commerce and war. It was unhampered by questions of morality. Its object was to increase its commerce and make money. It accepted our assistance, and increased the number of its warehouses. To protect the latter it employed an army which was utilized by us also. Is it not then useless for us to blame the British for what they did at that time? The Hindus and the Mahomedans were at daggers drawn. This too, gave the Company its opportunity, and thus we created the circumstances that gave the British control over India. Hence it is truer to say that we gave India to the British than India was lost. The causes that gave them India help them retain it. Some Englishmen say they took India and they hold India by the sword, both these statements are wrong. The sword is entirely useless for holding India. We alone keep them." Gandhi''s view of India was of a nation of shopkeepers, even citing Kruger of South Africa when he was asked if there was gold on the moon. Kruger said likely not, for if there was the British would have annexed it. By 1945 when Gen. Wavell, the Viceroy wrote back to London that he would require more army divisions to control India than Britain could afford, or the British people had the will to support or had commercial interests worth protecting after the war, the British moved up the year of their withdrawal. And began the negotiations with Gandhi for independent India.  Gandhi also says that in his reading of Vivekananda's writings the love that I had for my country became a thousand-fold. Gandhi looked to Vivekananda for inspiration in some of his ideas on Swaraj. Bose says Vivekananda's writings sent him into raptures yet saw Vivekananda "simple as a child" not realizing the spiritual strength Vivekananda had drawn from which overcomes all. As the Lord says in the Bhagavad Gita- "I am the Self, O Gudakesa, existent in the heart of all beings, I am the beginning, the middle, and also the end of all beings. Of the Adityas, I am Vishnu, of luminaries, the radiant Sun; of the winds I am Marici; of the asterisms, the moon."   ...

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New laws passed by decree by Chavez that wwould send food company managers to jail if they violated government imposed price controls and power to nationalize companies in the food industry without National Assembly approval. This is because Chavez faces growing unpopularity with food price increases. Also by decree Chavez has established a National Bolivarian militia. And an anticorruption official has banned some popular opposition politicians from running in the November regional elections including Leopoldo Lopez from runnung for mayor of Caracas.

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Missteps by the Detroit automakers include fighting fuel efficiency legislation in 2005, even when the USA faced higher gas prices, and diluting the fuel efficiency legislation with a target of 35mpg for 2020 at a time when Europeans were taking up more aggressive challenges as public opinion there moved in that direction. They also spent heavily in lobbying spending, about $175 million for GM and Ford in the last 10 years, and some would say lobbying against the national interest and the national security interest of the USA, because failure to reduce consumption of oil through fuel efficient cars weakens the economy by sending hundreds of billions of dollars overseas to mideast countries. The closing of plants in states like Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia and Delaware and consolidating their operations closer to home weakened Congressional support, And the foreign auto makers built plants in places in the south like Alabama resulting in Senator Shelby of Alabama becoming allied with them. Rick Wagoner failed to show the vision and leadership needed, and Detroit failed to realize that vision and leadership were required to run these companies. not coming up through the large bureaucracies of these companies. And people associate him with declining market share and a company in decline and asky why. The whole mood of the country is reflected in newspaper columns across the country, in reader comments that run into the hundreds for each article overwhelmingly negative for taxpayer money going to Detroit automakers. This is the situation today and catches the Detroit automakers management, union, dealers, suppliers, by surprise as they have become so used to the status quo and know nothing different....

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U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased by about 20% in 2012, increasing dependence on the volatile Middle East region.

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...