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The Home Affordable Refinance Program's (HARP) gradual success in 2012-2013 in reducing foreclosures, after struggling in 2010-2011. From about cumulative 1 million who refinanced loans under HARP for relief in home payments the numbers went up to close to 3 million by the end of 2013, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Of this a major proportion were people who owed less than 105% of their home's value. The performance of the program improved with a revamp of HARP at the end of 2011.

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Krugman looks at the economies of indusrialized countries in 2014-2015. He points to the errors made by the Riksbank in Sweden to increase interest rates prematurely when a recovery was not on firm ground, ignoring the advice of deputy governor Lars Svensson. Sweden now faces the prospect of little growth and deflationary tendencies. He compares the decision of the ECB to raise rates in 2011 with Japan's decision to prematurely raise rates. The austerity policies in the EU driven by Germany and the lack of political consensus in the U.S., are faulted for making the situation worse when compared to Japan's poor handling of the situation. He says fiscal policy did not do enough in Japan to create growth, in the EU he says austerity policies were actually destructive of growth.

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Krugman points to the connection between the failure to achieve debt reduction through debt forgiveness and the sluggish economic growth in the eurozone and U.S., five years after the global banking and financial crisis of 2009 and four years after the beginning of the eurozone debt crisis in 2010. In the U.S. debt reduction for homeowners was delayed with a wave of foreclosures, and in Europe austerity budgets were the norm as Germany pushed hard for austerity policies. In 2014 small relaxation of austerity to give relief to voters took place in Greece, France, Italy and Spain, with austerity budgets still in place. Growth also slowed in Germany to slight contraction in the third quarter and no growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. This is leading to the formulation of new policy to address growth challenges in the eurozone. Debt to GDP is growing in eurozone countries and Britain because of lack of growth, even though spending cuts have been made, showing the need for rethinking policy. ...

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A political novice whose only political experience is being elected to the Bureau of Administrative Justice, is elected to be the 58th prime minister of Italy. Giuseppe Conte is a jurist. With him as deputy prime ministers are the leaders of the Northern League, Mr. Salvini, and the Five Star, Mr. Maio. 

The Northern League has taken anti-immigrant positions and sees the eurozone and euro currency as "a crime against humanity." The Five Star and the Northern League are in many ways polar opposites. Initially the anti-euro currency Paolo Savona was put forward as economy minister and rejected by the president.

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The Census Bureau reports that 46.2 million Americans were living in poverty in 2010. This is an increase of 2.6 million over 2009. This is the highest number of Americans living in poverty since 1958, when this statistic was first measured. Poverty is defined for 2010 as income at or below $22,314 for family of four. Also relevant is the median household income which went down to $49,445 in 2010, a decline of 2.3% from 2009. The typical household earned less in 2010 than in 1997, in inflation adjusted terms. The Census Bureau reports 16.3% of Americans had no health insurance coverage in 2010, the same as 2009.

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Prime minister Matteo Renzi focussed on some critical aspects of how other Europeans see the negotiations in the Greece bailout in June 2015. Considering that the EU had relaxed conditions for the surplus, a critical condition for reducing austerity programs in Greece and focussing on reforms, and considering the high unemployment not insisted on further cuts to the public sector employees, the conditions put forward focussing on reforms such as collection of taxes are seen as essental by other eurozone countries, including Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Renzi told II Sole 24 Ore- "The point is that Greece may get different conditions, but it has to abide by the rules. It's not the case that we have taken early retiremnt pensions away from the people of Italy just to allow the Greeks to have them! We have brought in labor reform, but it is not the case that, with our money, a number of Greek shipowners can continue not to pay taxes.. I could go on." If he went on he would cite the tax collection laws and methods in Italy which were changed under prime minister Monti to tackle tax evasion in Italy, with no effort to collect the $11 billion in estimated taxes that are not collected in Greece. Italy banned cash payment above 1000 euros and started a cross referencing initiative to tackle tax evasion under premier Monti. Greece took up tax evasion legislation in 2010 in parliament but opposition from many groups led to no action. In 2012 Labor minister Elsa Fornero broke down in tears as she described raising the retirement age for women to 66 in the private sector from 60, saying this was to prevent "collective impoverishment." Italy lacks childcare and older women help with childcare for grandchildren. Renzi was probably thinking of these changes in Italy. He went on to say- " If there is a mass get-out clause over the rules, what will happen in Spain in October? And in France in a year and half? It is one thing to ask for flexibility amid abidance by the rules. It is another thing to think that one is the craftiest of them all, in other words to be the that does not abide by the rules. We want them to save Greece. But the people of Greece also have to want that." On tax evasion and other issues for long term financial health Greece is seen as not following basic financial rules for sustaining the euro....

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A shocking statistic. Of the 12 metropolitan areas in the US with over 15% unemployment, 10 are in California, and this is because the construction industry has taken a severe hit. It lost 74,000 jobs in the 12 months ending in June 2010. From June 2006 to June 2010, this industry in California lost 43% or about 402,000 jobs. And the construction industry is still shrinking there. One reason why the unemployment rate in California is 12.3%. The overbuilding during the boom makes it that much harder to rebuild. The construction industry has been hard hit in Los Angeles and Riverside metro areas and in Napa and Solano counties.

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The NYT editorial says the negative feedback loop of foreclosures begetting falling house prices, which beget more foreclosures, and further weaken banks, is well under way. One way to have broken this, was to enable good types of loan modifications, which reduce the principal for homeowners and reduce payments significantly. Sheila Bair at FDIC says 32% of prior payments is about the right amount. The bad types of loan modifications that lead to no reduction in principal, and put homeowners back in redefault because of large payments that homeowners "under water" or a lost job cannot afford, have so far been the dominant kind of loan modification. At present 14 million homeowners are "under water," in that their homes are worth less than what is owed on the mortgage. One of the crucial measures which would have enabled this, has not been pushed by the Obama administration through Congress. This was to pass an amendment that allowed bankruptcy judges to modify troubled mortgages. Banks which have taken billions of dollars in loans from the federal government were allowed to lobby aggressively to kill this amendment, and the Obama administration did little to push this amendment in Congress. 12 Senate Democrats joined 39 Senate Republicans to block a vote on the amendment. Says the NYT editorial "when the time came to stand up to the banking lobbies and cajole yes votes from reluctant senators-the White House did'nt. When the measure failed there wasn't even a statement of regret." This could turn out to be a major mistake, because as the NYT points out voluntary loan modifications have shown poor results. The administration's plan to provide incentives for loan modification is untried and tested, and may not produce significant results. With 14 million homeowners under water, and spiralling foreclosures, the situation may get out of control and seriously damage the economy. After the moratorium in home foreclosures ended there is expected to be a big surge in foreclosures, with estimates of 290,000 to 341,000 foreclosures in March, 2009. If this is allowed to continue it will undo all the good work in other areas, the stimulus spending, rebuilding the auto industry and other steps. It will also be more difficult to reverse as valuable time passes and the cost of the crisis escalates. A consensus among many experts was that stronger action in connection with the banks was required, and Martin Feldstein has warned about the danger posed by foreclosures since early 2008, see links....

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Austin, Texas and growth in "middle skill" jobs which offers ways to increase jobs growth in the U.S. in 2012-2015.

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Dow Chemical CEO Liveris says he sees signs of recovery in China in 2013. He says small and medium sized businesses in China have better access to financing in Dec. 2012 after a period of destocking and hard times accessing credit.

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Lower oil prices in June 2012 with slowing growth worldwide and a planned buildup of inventories by Saudi Arabia and western nations. U.S. crude oil prices dropped to $83.23 a barrel on June 1, 2012.

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Greece spends 2.2% of GDP on the defense budget compared to 1.2% for Germany for 2014, according to the World Bank. Greece's Syriza government almost took Greece out of the eurozone over spending cuts for the poorest pensioners, submitted the proposed creditor terms for the cuts to a referendum in a manner reminiscent of the rejection of an ultimatum rejected by Greece from Mussolini for occupation of the country, using the term "Oxi" in Greek for "No." Greeks remember this with a postage stamp showing "Oxi," so embedded it is in the Greek memory. And about 85% of young people in Greece vote for "Oxi" in the July 5, 2015 referendum. Why is a NATO member spending so much on defense during a severe crisis, and is the EU right to insist on cuts in defense spending and some of the other reforms. Between 2000 and 2008 Greece's spending on military was about twice the euro area average- close to 3% for Greece compared to about 1.4% for Germany, and much lower in other countries in the euro area. The total Greece debt is not an issue the way it was earlier in 2010-2012, according to experts including Krugman and the former Greece finance minister in separate opeds in the NYT, as its now financed at very low rates, and the next step inevitably under any administration in Berlin and Athens would have been longer maturities and even lower rates- under any administration in Greece, including under Samaras- as the Germans, the Dutch and the French, know deep down it can never be fully repaid. The main issue of money transfer to creditors was tackled by changing the dateline for the surplus the largest issue according to experts, a similiar flexibility shown to Italy, Spain and France for their deficits as their economies suffered from spending cuts, high unemployment. This returns the focus for how Greece can manage its budget prudently including military, welfare, and other areas. The referendum did not change the way Greece will tackle spending under EU guidelines after the Syriza left government accepts the new 3 year package negotiated with the EU in Brussels July 12, 2015. The new plan will include $300 million in cuts for military spending by 2016, and shipowners will now pay taxes....

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The collapse of the Irish economy as house prices drop 50%, bank stocks drop 90% and unemployment rearches 10% in 2008. In Limerick unemployment is 14% and higher in some areas of the city. Mr Dunne, Ireland's best known developer, once paid in July 2005 the amount of 379 million euros for a 7 acre plot in the exclusive Ballsbridge neighborhood of Dublin. He planned a one billion euro development on that site. He is now insolvent.

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Unemployment is over 25% on Chicago's South Side black neighborhoods. Conditions have deteriorated with the higher unemployment since the economic crisis. Residents see little improvement since the days of Obama as a community activist in this part of the city.

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The U.S. Census Bureau shows incomes of American households, the median household income, surged in 2015 by 5.2%. This increased by $2800 to $56,500. This is the largest increase since 1967. It shows that steadily improving employment and hiring is leading to improvement in incomes for the middle and working class. Ris in minimum wage has also helped . The largest increase was for the lowest 20% of the income tiers. Full time working women did better than men, with increase annually of 2.7% for women, and 1.5% for men. Nocitizen incomes increased 10.5% to $45,100, native born households went up 4.4% to $57,200. The number of people without health insurance also declined from 33 million or 10.4% of the population to  29 million people or 9.1%. Another way the changes are helping lower income households is the decline of the official poverty rate to 13.5% in 2015 by 1.2 percentage points from 14.8% in 2014. Through a series of small incremental steps the path is being set for a recovery of household incomes for the middle class and working class. A bright spot is that the improvement has affected all age groups, household types, regions and ethnic groups, though among full time workers women did better than men. In this recession older white men have had more difficulties getting back into the workforce. This is reflected in the political scene in 2015-2016 for the election season. ...

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Many Italian university graduates lack proficiency in foreign languages or computer skills. Lack of on adequate on the job training programs compounds the problems as graduates are not able to pick up the skills at work. This discourages hiring of new graduates, especially graduates outside of engineering and technical areas. Technical graduates face another problem- the slow level of technological improvement and application in Italian business relative to Germany or the UK. R&D spending in Italy is only 0.7% compared to 1.4% in France and 2% in Germany, according to the OECD. Only 41% of Italian university graduates work in specialized areas, 44% in Spain, compared to 60% in the UK and Germany. Being overqualified is common for young people, or lacking other business type skills with a overemphasis on the humanities.

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Unemployment in France for the 1st quarter of 2012 increased to 9.6%, an increase from 9.3% in the last quarter of 2011, according to Insee, France's statistics agency.

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Reasons why the U.S. Stimulus spending failed to give the economy the boost it needed.

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The European Union Commission says Ireland must recover 13 billion euros in back taxes for giving tax preferences to Apple that are against EU rules. The EU Commission says Ireland allowed Apple to pay a corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003, and .005% in 2014. The EU Commissioner says the use of Ireland as the place where Apple pays taxes on operations in Europe has no base in reality, as most profits are earned in other countries outside Ireland. Taxable profits of Apple "did not correspond to economic reality," according to Ms. Vestager, the EU Commissioner.  In the current environment where political upheaval is unsettling the democratic process in the U.S., Britain, Spain, France and Italy, as well as in Brazil and other countries in the developing world- because of deep recessions, and efforts to cut the deficits with deep cuts in state spending including in education and healthcare, basic services- the moves by companies to reduce taxes to these absurdly low levels such as .005% when other companies in the EU are paying 12.5%, is becoming increasingly unpopular. As pointed out in this BBC News article this sounds like the way Carnegie, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt operated during the late 19th century, and were seen as operating in a manner that was above the law. Janet Yellen pointed out at a Boston Fed Conference on inequality in Oct 2014 that the bottom half of the distribution or 62 million households in the U.S. in 2013, had a net worth of about $10,000, One quarter of these households had a net worth of zero dollars. The working class and blue collar workers in the U.S. provide much of the support at Trump rallies. Younger college educated people support Sanders, because of the situation of the working and middle class in the U.S., and a similar situation exists in Europe. It is for the sake of the democratic process and delivering services in education, healthcare, and other basic areas to all, that companies small and large need to pay their fair share of taxes, regardless of size, influence, or technological advantages. Today this is is seen by most leaders who draw public support as the right way forward for the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asian countries, including proper allocation of resources to best serve the needs of working people. For example the 13 billion euros is equal to all of Ireland's healthcare budget, and 66% of its social welfare budget.    ...