LyrArc Article Gist
American Enterprise Institute, conservative think tank, supports Kiel Institute of the World Economy figures that say European Union aid is about double that of the US to Ukraine. Quite the reverse was stated in casual seemingly reckless fashion to 67 million viewers by former president Trump. Moderator David Muir should have had the facts right before him to correct this as this was a much anticipated topic and perennial Trump gripe. The US is not getting creamed- no way, the Europeans are paying up and keen on doing so $187 billion to the US $98 billion. Even with the best of intentions on fact checking this is not good enough from ABC News, or for that matter the rest of the television media - the CBS's, Fox's, NBC's, CNN's, not to mention the internet media, a disservice to democratic process that is built on facts not delusion.  To someone working 2 or 3 part time jobs, or the less literate who can't do quick fact checks that can be time consuming, or educated viewers who hav little inclination to check so much that is being thrown at them- what does it mean to have grievance and grudge thrown at them leaving the impression that the US is incapable when it is in fact greatly strengthening NATO alliance including Sweden and Finland and ties with Western Europe that were damaged over time since the Reagan period in the 1980's.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Twenty years after Japanese prime minister Koizumi visited Pyongyang in 2004, Japan's PM Kishida plans to talk to North Korean leader Kim. Koizumi had talks with Kim's father in 2004. The effort is to reduce tensions in the region with elections approaching in Japan, India, and the US in 2024, and to bolster the sense that Japan can manage its role in the region. The Europeans are doing the same as the French and the British are taking a bigger role in Europe during Ukraine conflict. After the Gaza conflict, the Houthis in Red Sea maritime channels, there is a sense that reducing tensions proactively is a better approach rather than wait for things to take their own course in directions that are not good for the world, or taking rigid ideological or other motivated positions that serve no constructive purpose and exacerbate tensions. Gandhiji used to say "tit for tat makes the whole world blind." It is not idealistic to say that but very practical and useful because if you do that you end up with situations where you lose leverage and ability to take positive action and come up with better outcomes, than if you let some unforeseen event or some events by other actors without proper motives to intervene to your serious and the world's detriment. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It comes as a shock to central banks and is pressuring governments- the food price explosion that won't go away even as energy prices are moderating. OECD graphs in this WSJ report show food prices up in 2023 over the prior year by 15-20% in France, Germany and Britain, compared to 5-10% in the US, Canada and Japan. In France households have cut food purchases by 10%, and in Germany by 10.4% over prior year in the largest drop since records were being kept in 1994. In Britain the statistics agency shows that 40% of the poorest 20% of people are cutting back on food purchases. Ludovic Subran who worked at the UN World Food Program says it is an "access problem." Food production has not dropped, people just can't afford to pay the prices. In Britain The Resolution Foundation says higher food prices since 2020 means the British public by summer 2023 will have to pay more in food bills $35 billion more than the 25 billion pounds for energy bills. Policymakers call higher profit margins by retailers as a possible cause as in world commodity markets food prices are falling since April 2022. Andrew Baileyof the Bank of England says it is the "fourth shock to inflation" after the supply chain bottlenecks, the energy price increases from the war in Ukraine, the tight labor markets. In Italy, Spain and Portugal governments have offered sale tax relief, in France and the UK government is leaning on retailers to curb price increases. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russian president Putin tells Russians at an annual news conference on Dec. 17, 2014, that the West wanted to deprive Russia of its natural resources. He says steps taken by the central bank and his administration were proper, including avoiding capital controls, except that the decision to raise interest rates to 17% in mid-Dec. should have been taken earlier. He deflects criticism that the sanctions and the decline in the ruble were "payment for Crimea" (Russia's takeover of the Crimea) by saying it was "payment for our independence, our sovereignty." Putin expressed unease with the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders. He told Russians to expect that the crisis will last for 2 years and during this time the Russian economy will adapt, in particular shifting its heavy dependence on oil exports. During the 10 years of the Putin administration since 2004, Russia has not made a vigorous effort to diversify away from oil dependence. Progress was made primarily in better integrating the economy with the European Union, entry into WTO, building a sovereign reserves fund, until the crisis in Ukraine. The Putin years may be seen in the future as the transition years towards a more diversified economy, and may lead to a shift away from the kind of management of economic and foreign policy by a single leader that may have led to the disruption in relations with Germany, a critical economic partner for Russia. Chancellor Merkel said Germany would continue to support sanctions as long as Russia opposed the right of self- determination of people in Europe and European values. Germany continues even now to maintain dialogue with Russia through Social Democrat Foreign Minister Steinmeier, which is why Putin continues to refer to it as "our partners" and cites the differences with our partners, very different from the Cold War period when no such close relations with Germany existed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in WSJ looks at the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs retained by president Biden as the US seeks to reduce its overdependence on Chinese imports and bring back American manufacturing. This followed misguided policies of previous administrations since Clinton that weakened American manufacturing strengths. Have the US tariffs on Chinese goods worked? The WSJ graph with information from US Census Bureau shows that imports from China in 2022 going down to the levels in 2007 of about 16-17% as a share of US imports, down from a high of 21% before the Trump tariffs halted a rapidly rising curve. Imports from Germany, South Korea and Japan in 2022 were down slightly hovering around 4.5%. Imports increased from Canada and Mexico, the US's traditional partners in North America, around 13.5% as a share of US imports for each country. Also increasing were imports from Vietnam. Some of the imports from Vietnam are Chinese products shipped through Vietnam to evade tariffs, and it is not clear whether the figures from Vietnam have been adjusted for this. President Biden is looking at different scenarios in an effort to tackle inflation. One supported by Janet Yellen, an economist at US Treasury is for the US to relax some of the China tariffs. Most economists in previous administrations including Yellen failed to understand what surrendering American manufacturing to China on the scale and speed that happened would do to communities across America that depended on factory jobs. The devastation of these communities has led to increased divisions in America, weakened American manufacturing, and led to outflow of technologies vital for national security and national well being.  Republican senators, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are opposed to any relaxation of tariffs. Studies show the removal of the tariffs would have only a small impact on the consumer price inflation index reducing inflation by 0.26%. Lifting some tariffs on school supplies and summer bicycles as proposed by the US Chamber of Commerce would have little or no impact on the consumer price index for inflation. This is because the inflation is triggered by oil and gas price increases stemming from the Russian policies and invasion of Ukraine. This has also aggravated food and grocery costs  through blocking of agricultural imports from Ukraine. An additional factor was the increased demand after the pandemic easing in 2022, but that demand is already easing in July with glut in inventories at Walmart and Target, and excess warehouse capacity at Amazon. It would also send the wrong signal to China that the tariffs imposed by president Trump after a Section 301 trade investigation and based on improper loss of technologies to China are not being taken seriously by the US, says Republican Senator Hagerty of Tennessee. The Labor advisory committee to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai also opposes any such move after the serious damage done to US workers and to US national well being and security. This happened under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations with failed trade policies that ceded manufacturing to China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Republican party has split shows the New Hampshire and Iowa Republican  primaries says WSJ in this video that is essential to understand 2024. Demographic expert that the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) talked to in this video say Donald Trump has brought in working class voters into the Republican party, no question about that. Yet in doing so and with his style he has alienated what are suburban Republican voters, higher educated with college degrees, the country club type that was long been associated with the Republican party since 1900. Taking the Iowa and New Hampshire voters the WSJ shows in visual dynamic graphs that half of voters in both states did not vote for Trump. There are no differences between Republican voters who voted for Trump and who voted against Trump when it comes to gender, age, they are evenly divided for gender and age. Difference is in education and suburban. Higher educated, suburban Republican voters acted to vote against Trump. This means says WSJ is that the Republican party has now effectively split up. Immigration is not as important to these Republicans who voted against Trump, foreign policy is also important which is not so for Trump voters. Ukraine matters for these voters who voted against Trump. Abortion also matters and the economy matters for these Republican voters who did not vote for Trump. In the backdrop of all this is the advisers who surround the president, the chief of whom may be Jake Sullivan, not just for foreign policy but also on issues such as immigration. Where Michael Shear of the NYT who has covered the White House for 30 years shows Jake Sullivan actively pushing to close down the asylum and parole avenues that are surging migrant flows, and to get Biden to close the US Mexico border under a bipartisan deal worked out by Lindsay Graham and Chuck Schumer in the US Senate. Sullivan, Michael Burns and other thoughtful, careful advisers are helping the Biden administration navigate the Israel Palestinian conflict and the Ukraine Russian conflict. The Middle East is what tripped Jimmy Carter with the Iran hostage crisis, leading to the Reagan period and Reagan economic culture that is unwinding today with huge gaps in incomes and educational opportunities that never existed before in the US. What also tripped Jimmy Carter was the split with the party that John Kennedy and LBJ built on the foundations of the FDR Truman period, and his handling of the Kennedys that effectively split the Democratic party. This is the situation that is now happening in the Republican party as the Reagan era and its culture of extremes comes to a close. Of extremes not seen since the Great Depression of a working family struggling to live on wages near the poverty level in a automobile factory in Michigan before the UAW settlement that Biden was on the picket lines for, and the $55.8 billion pay package that was put forward for Mr. Musk at Tesla. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
White provides critical insights to understand Ukraine's situation caught up between Germany and the EU on one side and Russia with its aspirations under Putin to bring together former Soviet bloc states. Russia is a critical energy provider for Ukraine and trade relations. The eastern part of Ukraine around Donetsk has favorable opinion about Russia. The western part of Ukraine looks for closer ties to the EU and favors joining the European Union. It was president Yakunovych's reversal of course in turning down an agreement for closer ties to the EU that led to the current crisis and street protests. Putin offered Ukraine $15 billion in loans to sign a trade and economic agreement with Russia. The language used by Russian prime minister Medvedev that Ukraine should not become "like a doormat that people wipe their feet on," shows the Putin administration's views. This was only a day before Ukraine's parliament voted to set a date for new elections, freed former prime minister Tymoshenko and began talks for opposition leaders to be part of a transitional government....

LyrArc Article Gist
Potash a potassium based fertilizer mined from the earth is environmentally friendly unlike nitrogen and phosporous based fertilizers. When Belarus and Russia which make 40% of world supply of potash could not supply the world market because of the war in Ukraine, Canadian producers which make 30% of potash stepped in to increase market share. Two Canadian producers will increase production to meet demand after a 28% increase in the price of potash. Potash has the added advantage of being good for the environment and for climate change action. The use of potash needs to double to meet climate change action goals. Nutrien, the world's largest producer of potash in Saskatchewan, Canada will increase production by 2026 from 15 million tons to 18 million tons a year. BHP has a new plant coming up in Saskatchewan in 2026 for 4.35 million metric tons of potash. 

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial opinion in BBC News points to a Russian miscalculation on how its involvement in the U.S. elections would be seen in the U.S. Congress. The U.S. Congress voted for stronger sanctions on Russia with only 5 members in the Senate and the House of Representatives voting against sanctions- an overwhelming vote in favor of sanctions. This means future policy on Russia will be determined by the U.S. Congress, and with bipartisan support for such policies. President Trump reluctantly signed the bill, saying it took away from executive authority. Russia had hoped its efforts in favor of Trump would lead to an easing of sanctions, not grasping the role of Republicans in Congress who see interference in the democratic process in the U.S. in the same way as Democrats.

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden created the largest boom in manufacturing since the space race in the 1960's. It is now at risk because of failures early in 2021-2022 in the Biden administration trying to be humane in migrant policy, but in reality also because of the bigger issues of the pandemic, vaccine skepticism, the economy, the Ukraine war in Feb. 2022 that delayed action till 2023, and the unanticipated complete collapse of Venezuela's economy leading to migrant surge. The Border was closed in 2024 by president Biden. When Trump blocked passage of Republican legislation supported by Biden, senior Republicans asked Biden to block migrant entry by executive order, Biden acted and the Border was closed. Will it now reverse the biggest manufacturing boom the US has had since 1960? How much blame should Biden take when he acted forcefully on all fronts- the pandemic, vaccines, manufacturing, and on no. 4 by closing the southern Border in 2024 by executive order? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
"Having a country invading their neighbor with impunity that is a dire message to the rest of the world, and we are not making the mistakes of the past." 

Macron speaks of Russian threats to other places, to Moldova and Romania. 

Macron shows a chart of Russian rearmament with increases from 1.2 million men in the army to 1.5 million  and 1200 military aircraft to 1500 aircraft.

'Peace cannot come at any price, by abandoning Ukraine, the collapse of Ukraine."

"We have seen this happen in the past. Who can forget the invasion began in 2014, there was a ceasefire that was agreed to in Minsk and that the same Russia did not keep the ceasefire."

"We cannot take them at their word. Ukraine has a right for peace and security. It is in our interest. And we are working with our European allies."

LyrArc Article Gist
A small town mayor who says he will fight with Biden for workers and families in every county in Pennsylvania wins the Senate seat against aTV health show host favored by Mr. Trump. The scrappy fight put up by Democrats on their own in different parts of the country is the main takeaway from this election for control of running 36 of America's 51 states and control of Congress. Fighting an election with major legislation on controlling healthcare costs and for renewable energy, infrastructure investments, Mr. Biden and fellow Democrats was forced into a back to the wall fight because of price increases from Russia's war in Ukraine. Voters took notice not falling for the message on inflation alone that is being tackled by the Fed's Jerome Powell, giving room for seeing the larger picture.

LyrArc Article Gist
This opinion in the DW.com after the selection of ExxonMobil's Rex Tillerson as U.S. Secretary of State, asks whether the exploitation of natural resources and gaining advantages in trade agreements replaces concern for human rights. Still it says after all these concerns Rex Tillerson deserves a fair chance.

LyrArc Article Gist
Zelensky opposes ceding Crimea to Russia. The only way to peace is to recognize status quo borders because it is unlikely to change given the stalemate in the war. Ukraine says the US needs to recognize the situation is unlikely to change, and achieve peace with assurances and safeguards that prevent a return to war.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russian strategy is to continue to make gains and not seek an immediate ceasefire. Russian drone attacks on Ukraine continue in May 2025.

LyrArc Article Gist
Rebuilding in Ukraine is focused on destroyed bridges and infrastructure as Russia continues to destroy apartment blocks, and targets the electricity grid.  Many of the apartment blocks destroyed outside Kviv in Irpin in this story are hard to rebuild because of the constant attacks most recently with hypersonic missiles that are hard to detect. A couple fled from Donetsk, settled in Irpin in a new apartment only to have to flee again after a Russian missile attack left their apartment building in ruins. How do you build in the midst of a war is the question Ukrainians ask themselves every day. About 150,000 apartment buildings and half the electricity grid is destroyed, so also 1500 schools and 20,000 kilometres of roads. It would cost $350 billion to repair. It would require policy decisions on what quality of building materials and how many to apartment buildings to build and how quickly.

LyrArc Article Gist
The coalition of socialist, greens and communist parties could win about 205 seats says the Ifop poll. Jean Luc Melenchon is leading a effort by socialist parties to form the next government in France. It is the only alternative to Mr. Macron's party in the parliamentary elections on June 12 and June 19. Meenchon supports raising the minimum wage by 15%, introducing a wealth tax and lowering the retirement age. Another poll by BVA shows only 35% of French voters want Macron's party to win a majority. 

Germany under Scholz's socialist SPD and Greens has increased the minimum wage to 12 euros per hour as part of the election platform. The trend in Europe is now for support to workers and families to meet the high cost of living with inflation accelerated by the war in Ukraine, the energy shortages and higher food prices.

LyrArc Article Gist
India's challenges in securing $1.3 trillion in capital over 5 years for infrastructure spending. This is needed including capital from the private sector to support government funding, so that India can build the infrastructure to create new manufacturing hubs that compete with China as the world's manufacturing workplace. The Biden administration's determination to compete effectively with China using is own supply chain in Asia, and the EU's plan to follow what the Biden administration does, is likely to create a new kind of environment by 2024-2025 that will create a steady flow of capital to India and other parts of Asia to finance this effort for rebuilding its supply chain. The Biden administration is seeking to build a culture change from the old culture pushed by Reagan type free marketers that delivered lost decades in manufacturing and jobs in manufacturing for the US. Biden's State of the Union message was clear- "Folks we're just getting started. We're just getting started." By 2024-2025 the Adani story may just be a footnote to this story as other manufacturers and investors pick up the infrastructure challenges facing the US, EU and India for a new supply chain for the Free World built around self-reliance. The Ukraine war and China incidents such as one that happened recently, will accelerate the rebuilding of the new supply chain on the part of the US and the EU with partners in Asia. And change decades old assumptions and trade relationships over months, not years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany is going through a second year of slight economic contraction. The newly elected government of chancellor Merz has setup a $1 trillion fund to invest in infrastructure and defense. This will increase the debt to GDP ratio from 62% much lower than other advanced economies to 75%, and could give the German economy a rebound with $500 billion for fixing aging infrastructure. Germany's unemployment rate stands at 6.3% in March 2025. The economy weathered a energy crisis with the cutoff of energy supplies from Russia during the term of chancellor Scholz. Infrastructure, child care, was neglected under Merkel and previous administrations as it was in the US under Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. The 2009 financial crisis, the eurozone debt crisis and the pandemic, Ukraine crisis from 2009 to 2024 have provided headwinds for action to renew Germany till now. A $1 trillion new fund and removal of the constitutional brake under the newly elected parliamentary majority of the CSU/CDU, the SPD and the Greens is the first step with $500 billion earmarked for fixing aging infrastructure, digitization of the economy, and other investment. The unemployment situation is deteriorating in the auto industry which was poorly managed and is now being hit with US tariffs of 25% on imported cars made by BMW, Mercedes and VW. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Albergotti and Macmillan tell the story of Jan Koum of WhatsApp who immigrated from Ukraine as a teenager in 1992, and settled wih his mother in Silicon Valley. His interest in messaging apps stemmed from his interest in staying in touch with extended family in Ukraine, Russia and Israel, after losing his mother to cancer and his dad passing away in Ukraine before making it to the U.S. He met Brian Acton at San Jose State University, where he studied programming, and the two founded WhatsApp in 2009. In the early years after 1992, before joining Yahoo following graduation, Koum lived on food stamps.

LyrArc Article Gist
  We show her the view from Europe on Ukraine in Feb 2025. Francois Hollande leader of the Socialists in France and former president says that the United Kingdom, France and Germany must be at the forefront of genuine European security. In this long interview he answers questions from Le Monde. He says US may withdraw its 80,000 troops from Europe in NATO. This will require European forces and European nuclear deterrent. In 1966 De Gaulle's successor president Pompidou said- "France must be returned to itself. Thus we are serving Europe and preparing the re-emergence of Europe so that it can play its part. Do not imagine that we are changing sides. We are against hegemony and so do not intend to favour Soviet hegemony, nor does our attitude towards the war in Vietnam encourage Chinese hegemony in that part of the world." Hollande says if this US withdrawal of troops from NATO happens will Article 5 will then apply to Europe? Hollande's answer is "it is upto us to prepare. Even without him."   On Merz's election as Germany's leader- Hollande says we will have to broaden the geographic scope of our deterrent force. Merz has expressed interest in nuclear deterrent from partners UK and France, France having proposed to Germany a mutual nuclear deterrent under president Pompidou, a successor to president De Gaulle in the 70's. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Differences between the U.S. and Germany at the Munich Security Conference on the approach to a settlement in Ukraine. Russia wants more autonomy for the rebel held areas and continues the flow of arms and men to eastern Ukraine. Russia's economy has been hurt to a limited extent by sanctions and larger extent by the plunge in crude oil prices, with inflation at about 15% in Feb 2015. Relations with the U.S. and Germany are at a low point, making negotiations more difficult. With Russia calling the conflict a civil war, and Ukraine's currency plunging, and the U.S. considering sending arms to Ukraine, France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel personally conduct difficult negotiations in Moscow in Feb. 2015. Merkel tells the Munich Security Conference that "this cannot be won militarily," as the reason to oppose U.S. sending arms to Ukraine. And Vice President Biden says he agrees, yet he says its important "to be equally clear: We do not believe Russia has the right to do what they're doing." U.S. Senator Graham supports sending arms aid. Senior officials say the Hollande-Merkel peace initiative gets some help from the U.S. approach as all earlier settlements have not been carried out by Russia....