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Efforts by prime minister Erdogan of Turkey to reach a peace agreement with the Kurdish PKK and its leader Mr. Ocalan who is in a Turkish prison since 1999. Mr. Ocalan is reported to be ready to reach an agreement. Prime minister Erdogan is keen on reaching an agreement because of the war in Syria, where a group related to the PKK and Ocalan is in control of the Kurdish northeastern region in Syria. This creates a situation where the Kurds in northern Iraq and in Syria could form a Kurdish state. Other reasons for Erdogan to push forward with an agreement are his intention to rewrite the Turkish constitution to setup an executive presidency. Erdogan would then be able to run for president. He would need Kurdish voters support for this move. In recent years Turkey has moved closer to Iraq, is its main trading partner and a destination for Turkish exports. Turkey now sees itself as a regional power in the Middle East after years of waiting to become part of the European Union. Turkey sees other advantages for this move to a peaceful Middle East- it sees benefits from trade with Egypt, and a new Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, making the whole region a destination for Turkish exports and foreign investment. As part of this move Erdogan's administration is lifting curbs on the use of the Kurdish language in the Kurdish southeast of Turkey and in the regional capital of Diyarbakir. This is an example of how trade, commerce and changing political conditions can create peaceful progress. It is reminiscent of the situation in Spain where the Catalan language was suppressed by the government of Franco till the 1980's, when the formation of the European Union and the changed political climate led to autonomy for Catalonia under a elected federal government....

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Ben Van Heuvelen documents in the Washington Post what Ali Nabhan and Bradley pointed out in the WSJ in May 2009, that the officers in the Iraqi army lacked the training and discipline to act as an effective fighting force. These early indications proved correct and were ignored by the Iraqi government and the Obama administration till it was too late with the fall of Mosul and the ensuing chaos in Iraq.

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Efforts by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to mediate differences between Qatar, which supports the Muslim Brotherhood, and Egypt's military government under Sissi, as the security threats in the region intensify. At the Gulf Cooperation Council meetings an effort to reduce differences between the Saudis and U.A.E. with Qatar, as the Middle East fragments bringing conflict to Libya and Iraq, in addition to Syria. Islamic State now threatens Saudi Arabia. The U.S. operates its main command center from Doha, Qatar. Iran supports the U.S. and Iraq under the Abadi government as it works to reduces sectarian Sunni-Shiite tensions and push back Islamic State. The Saudis and Iran now find themselves on the same side and see the need to reduce Shiite-Sunni tensions to restore peace to the region. This is the new background to the efforts to heal regional tensions in 2014-2015, as a reluctant Obama administration takes up American responsibility to restore peace to the region and avoid fragmentation....

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This piece by Cambanis in the NYT shows how even Syrian Free Army soldiers have switched sides to join the ISIS extremist Sunni militia. Sheikh Hassan a Syrian Free Army brigade leader describes the case of Mustafa who switches sides for a higher salary wih ISIS. ISIS gave Mustafa triple his salary at the Free Syrian Army - increasing it to $400. In a region with many unemployed youth the ISIS pays salaries for joining, and taps Sunni frustrations in Iraq, with money raising and financing capabilities a critical part of the organization's capabilities. A piece by Nordland shows how the ISIS's crude but effective money raising uses taxes and other illicit ways to increase revenues. This provides a unique insight into what is happening in Iraq and Syria after the failure of the U.S. to effecively support the Free Syrian Army and moderate groups in Syria, the premature withdrawal from Iraq, and the frustrations of Sunnis built up under the government of prime minister Maliki openly favoring Shiites. This has provided an opening for extremist groups in the region, and created more tangles for the Obama administration as its policies to distance itself from the region have not let it extricate itself from the U.S.'s important role in the region. The vacuum created by these policies has been filled by extremist organizations and created about 2 million refugees- a large humanitarian crisis and undone years of effort by U.S. soldiers in Iraq. ...

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This WSJ editorial in September 2014 says many of president Obama's statements and decisions on Obama healthcare legislation and implementation, Syria, NSA and privacy, the Middle East, Russia, showed poor judgement. It refers to a piece by Peter Baker in NYT where it is said that Obama mocked how people see him as too professorial, diffident, in a sarcastic statement. The problem says WSJ is that president Obama has poor judgement. Being academically credentialed and quick grasp of subject matter is not the same as having the ability to discern things, instinct and grasp of the essence of the matter. George Bush senior had a long resume and was academically credentialed. By comparison Truman had a short resume and was not academically credentialed or quick with data and analysis. He had something more essential and important- a discerning mind and grasp of the larger picture, as well as listening abilities for exceptional advisors such as General Marshall and Acheson he gathered around him....

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The political risk in China as the change of leadership takes place in 2012, and with the removal of Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai. The slowing of manufacturing activity and slowdown in growth expected in 2012-2014. Export growth declines to 6.8% from 14.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Quarterly surveys by the central bank shows demand for loans is dropping. And the HSBC purchasing managers index shows a reading of 48.1 in March, declining from 49.6% in February, showing shrinking manufacturing activity in China- anything less than 50 means contraction is taking place.

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John Bolton looks at the continual dithering behaviour of the U.S. president in the Middle East- Iran, Libya, Syria, Iraq in sequence- and provides some insights into the president's behaviour. He says it comes from Obama's distrust of the U.S. role in the world as a positive factor, and a deterministic view of the "arc of history" bending towards outcomes he finds ideologically acceptable. This coincides with a different public perception of America's role in the world, not so much of mistrust and skepticism, as of indifference and focus back on domestic issues following the event of the first war in Iraq and of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The two are different in nature as the public including women may not share the ideological frame of mind of the president that the U.S. is not overall a serious positive factor in the world through the presidencies of TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman, Ike, to Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton, from the Russo-Japanese war, through the First and Second World War, the Berlin Airlift and the Korean War, to the Balkan conflict. Bolton writes at a time when the two perceptions are about to diverge as the U.S. returns to its normal role of positive and constructive engagement with the world....

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Tom Donilon, is national security advisor to President Obama. His experience includes working as chief of staff for Warren Christopher in the Clinton administration, and 8 years as an executive at Fannie Mae before being brought into the Obama circle by Rahm Emmanuel as deputy to national security advisor Gen. Jones. Robert Gates view was that Donilon would be "a disaster." His early experience as a political operative for the Carter campaign to his work for the 1988 Biden presidential campaign, and work at Fannie Mae as a business executive, suggests lack of experience in foreign affairs needed for this role. A focus on efficiency and being able to sync with Obama's thinking on foreign affairs may not be the qualities needed in this critical role.

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The return of street bombings in Iraq by Al Quaeda affiliates leads to increased sectarian violence in 2013. Sunnis feel they are targeted as Iraqi government forces conduct searches following bombings, and issue residence cards for Sunni areas to prevent infiltration by Al Quaeda terrorists. Sunnis fear the formation of Shiite private militia groups.

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President Obama's nationally televised speech on Sept. 10, 2013 about the need to keep the military option for strikes in Syria alive, and an acknowledgement of the war weariness of the U.S. after two wars in the Middle East and South Asia.

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President Obama's proposed legislation for the fight against Islamic State proposes a three year effort with use of Special Commandos, but no major ground combat effort. It also rescinds a broad Bush era 2002 legislation for the Iraq war, but leaves in place 2001 legislation for the war against al-Qaeda and affiliates.

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Questions and Answers about Islamic State on the BBC website give a short and simple look at Islamic State or ISIS in Syria and Iraq, its origins and how it developed upto the Iraqi government's efforts to retake Mosul in northern Iraq in Dec. 2016.