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Trade patterns are changing as shipments to the US by China dropped 21% and goods were shifted to Southeast Asian countries where exports went up 21%.

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A tentative Brexit deal with the EU is reached but it is not clear that it can win support of the Cabinet of prime minister Theresa May, even before it has any chance in the British parliament. March 29, 2018 is the 2 year period for negotiations to arrive at a deal with the EU. The pro-EU transport minister Jo Johnson resigned and called for a second referendum, saying that the decision in the first referendum to leave the EU was made because false prospects had been presented by the Leave EU campaign. 

Because of the issue of Northern Ireland the U.K would remain indefinitely in the customs union, and this is opposed by the Leave EU supporters in the Conservative party government of prime minister May.

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Greg Ip of the WSJ calls the US economy's growth "impressive," and "quality growth." This was always evident throughout the last 24 months. It was presented in terms of cost of living crisis at times but it was always evident that something remarkable has been achieved by president Biden and Fed chairman Jerome Powell, the US leading all the economies in the world by far. 

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One of the opportunities of this pandemic is that it offers a chance to think anew and act anew. Where in Lincoln's words "the dogmas of the past are inadequate for the stormy present, as our case is new we must think anew and act anew." Here Vladimir Putin offers his assessment of how the pandemic calls for a fresh approach to reviving De Gaulle and other postwar European leaders vision of Europe that spanned the entire continent culturally including Russia. He accepts mistakes have been made by all sides and the title of the article by Putin is "Be Open, Despite the Past." The Russian Embassy in Germany contacted De Zeit for publication of an article by Putin, and it can be seen as part of the Russian response to president Biden's effort to build a new cooperative relationship with Russia that is in the best interests of the US, Russia, Germany, the European Union and also of India which has a cooperative relationship with Russia. There is the danger that it could be seen as reported in The Times of London and comments posted seeing it against distrust built around Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The 670 Comments in Germany on De Zeit site on the article reflect a more German perspective of being a close neighbor that suffered so much from the war that left millions dead on both sides. One German commenter says his father and grandfather were forcibly recruited to fight in France and Russia and suffered much in wartime. The occasion is the 80th anniversary of the German invasion of Russia in World War II. Some of what Putin has to say- "We hoped that the end of the Cold War would mean victory for all of Europe. It would not be long before Charles De Gaulle's vision of a unified continent would become a reality, more culturally and civilizationally from Lisbon to Vladivostock." Russia has changed, Russians see themselves as European, as part of the larger European Union, culturally and civilizationally. This is not the old Russia of the Cold War or of the Soviet period. "NATO itself a relic of the Cold War, created out of a confrontation from that time." Not objecting to NATO but to the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders. But saying this has not got us anywhere where our heart not our brain says we ought to go. Lets try again to draw different conclusions from what we have seen. Its important to think anew because "we are all confronted with the common challenges of the pandemic and its extremely serious social and economic consequences." "The entire prosperity and security of our common continent are only possible through the combined efforts of all our countries, including Russia because Russia is one of the largest European states. Wed feel our inseparable cultural and economic ties to Europe." "We simply cannot afford to carry around the burden of previous misunderstandings, hurts, conflicts and mistakes. A burden that prevents us from solving current problems. We are convinced that we all have to admit and correct these mistakes. Our common and undisputed goal is to ensure the security of the continent without dividing lines. And to create a unified space for equal cooperation and collective development in the interests of the prosperity of Europe and of the whole world." President Biden was right to think anew and act anew in Geneva, and to "disenthrall ourselves" from old ways of thinking, and for rising to the occasion. Jill Biden said of president Biden's preparation for the meeting in Geneva- "Hell, he was overprepared," and it showed Biden's genuine feeling and effort that he owed it "in the interests of Europe and the world."       ...

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Trump has an interview with Larry King, a veteran TV personality, who made the interview for the Russian government controlled RT network. In it Trump says the war in the Middle East has cost the U.S. trillions of dollars and that we should never have gone in there. The interview was phoned in and done as a favor to Larry King, lasting 10 minutes and ending abruptly.  Trump also denied the Russians are involved in the hacking of the Democratic Party computer networks. The issues over Trump's opposition to the war in Iraq also comes up in an NBC interview. Media sources say this is not true, that initially Trump supported the U.S. going into the war, and Matt Lauer of NBC has come under criticism for not pursuing this question with Trump. It has become common for political leaders to blame the Bush administration for action since 9/11 including the war in Afghanistan, and the war over WMD in Iraq, because of the unpopularity of the wars today. Yet at the time this was not the case, and only when WMD was not proven and the war in Iraq's Anbar province dragging on did the situation change. Separately Trump in other events praised Putin as a stronger leader than president Obama. This has come under criticism from Republican party leaders. ...

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Fears that nuclear facilities that are spread out thoughout the country of Pakistan could fall into Taliban hands. Especially one scenario in which the nuclear facility is moved and an insider tips off the Taliban, later it is taken by Taliban as it is being transported. Even as the terrorism increases in Pakistan, the country is continuing to produce more plutonium and more nuclear reactors. An estimated 70 to 100 nuclear weapons are located in Pakistan. Americans gave $100 million for securing these facilities and for security, but have no idea where that money went. And when it comes to the nuclear facilities the USA has no idea where they are, and is facing a dead end of "don't worry" from Pakistani military officials, increasing the concern from the Americans, as the same assurances were made about the sale of nuclear technology by Pakistani scientists in the black market. These claims turned out to be true. This time the US is not about to take any chances, and the Pakistani military is loath to disclose more information about the location of nuclear facilities, because the US may blow them up if the Taliban are seen as a threat to those facilities....

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German chancellor, Angela Merkel, speaking to the German parliament, the Bundestag, in Berlin, on December 2, 2011. She talked about the need for early agreement on changes in treaties that would place strict controls on budgets. Merkel said she sees the process of resolving the debt crisis as a long one, saying "this process will take years." At the same time she continued to emphasize the future of Germany in the European Union- "The future of the euro is inseparable from European unity. The journey before us is long and will be anything but easy. But I am convinced it is the right path. It is the right path to take to reach our common goal: a strong Germany in a strong European Union that will benefit the people in Germany, in Europe." Merkel compared the process to a marathon run, with efforts being particularly difficult at the 35 kilometre mark, making it helpful to know this at the beginning of the race. She ruled out common eurozone bonds as "unthinkable." Instead of agreements, Merkel expressed the need for "legally binding regulations," saying this was the time to "fix the mistakes of construction" by founders of the eurozone....

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In the 2 hour call Xi and Biden discussed issues that are creating serious differences between the 2 countries, the war in Ukraine, Taiwan, trade and tariffs, South China sea and Indo-Pacific issues, global supply chains, food and energy issues. Chinese statement says "those who play with fire will be perished by it. It is hope the US will be clear eyed about this." Xi Jinping takes on a third term in 2022. Biden has spoken with Xi five times since 2021 and the last call in March was to dissuade China from supporting Russia in the Ukraine war. China is opposed to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Biden has said it was a bad idea at this time.

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With British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss present during a visit to New Delhi, India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar says the western talk of sanctions "looks like a campaign." 

"If you look at the major buyers of Russian oil and gas you will find most of them are in Europe. We ourselves get the bulk of our energy supplies from the Middle East, about 8% of our oil from the US in the past, maybe less than 1 percent from Russia,"  said Jaishankar. He said in March Europe had bought 15% more oil from Russia than the month before. And he does not see this changing in coming months.

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Apple's plans to make the new iPhone 14 in India. Its efforts to bring NPI or New Product Introduction processes to India so that new iPhones can be built in a short time. This would mean not replicating production processes existing in China but setting up new ones from scratch. About 95% of iPhones are made in China. Only about 7% in India by year end which Apple plans to increase to much higher levels by 2025, as some of the supply chain for Apple shifts to India from China. The Modi government is setting up new infrastructure and logistics centers in India to prepare for India becoming a key part of the supply chain for the US and the European Union.

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Presley says the Governor's election is not about right vs. left, not Democrat vs Republican, just those of us on the outside vs those in the inside. NYT covers Brandon Presley's effort to win the Governor's race in a Deep Southern state Mississippi. He plans expansion of Medicaid in a state with alarming health conditions. He hopes to revive rural hospitals. He approved raises for public school teachers of $5100 a year. He is conservative on social and cultural issues. In 2001 at age 24 he was elected mayor of a small town Nettleton with 1900 people in northeastern Mississippi. He was elected four times to represent northern Mississippi on the Public Services Commission.

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Spirit Airlines, a no frills airline in the US, files for bankruptcy. It lost $2.2 billion since 2020, almost all the profit made since 2006. It was the result of a lot of things happening at once, problems with Pratt and Whitney engines grounding planes, failed $2.9 billion merger with Frontier another no frill airline, when Jet Blue made a $3.9 billion offer that had less chance to get by antitrust concerns. The 2020-2024 period was one in which people scrambled to travel and the bigger airlines Delta, United, Southwest were in a better position with their international networks, frequent flyer program and credit cards, and more routes and planes to capitalize on this leaving Spirit behind.

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Yes millions of jobs created under Biden in 4 years- 19 million jobs. Yet the growth in jobs is uneven across counties and states in the US. A full 43 percent of counties have not fared as well with jobs not reaching 2019 prepandemic levels by the beginning of 2024. This includes Michigan with Wayne County having 2% less from 2019 levels. It includes Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh area. It includes Wisconsin. Western and southern states did better with Arizona and Nevada going in opposite directions one gaining from investments in electric cars and green energy, and the other Nevada suffering from the hit taken by workers in hotels and hospitality.  NYT shows in graphical detail the situation today.

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This Editorial Board Opinion in the WSJ reminds readers that it is the Government Accountability Office of the US itself that made these estimates of annual losses from fraud and waste.

A Government Accountability Office report of 2024 estimated the “federal government could lose between $233 billion and $521 billion annually to fraud.” The GAO report said “a government-wide approach is required to address it,” and advised that Treasury take up and “leverage data-analytics capabilities” for the job of stopping questionable payments and payments that look dubious. This was suggested as a necessary step to cut waste and fraud in a bureaucracy that is this large.

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Sabotage of two tankers in the Persian Gulf and reports of activity of Iranian proxy forces in Iraq and Syria have led to an American response with the dispatch of a aircraft carrier and other forces to the region.  This report in the NYT says Defense Secretary Shanahan has prepared plans for deployment of American forces in the region with one plan calling for 120,000 troops to be dispatched to the region. As president Trump is against American involvement in land wars in distant places, the force is designed as a precaution in case of an Iranian attack through proxy forces in Syria or Iraq and not for a land operation. National Security Adviser Bolton has taken a strong position on Iran since the days of the Bush administration. The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the sanctions on Iranian oil, are part of a new policy of the Trump administration. The European Union countries have followed a policy of preserving the nuclear deal of 2015, even though the U.S. is pressuring EU countries. The oil sanction have led to a sharp drop in oil exports and is hurting the Iranian economy. President Rouhani of Iran says Iran may withdraw from parts of the Iran nuclear deal and the Iranian response is leading to heightened tensions in the region.  It was only recently that the Democratic party Obama administration pursued the Iranian nuclear deal with opposition from Republicans in Congress and skepticism of Israel. The election of president Trump who says the deal was a bad one has reversed U.S. policy leading to a complete change in policy and a possible confrontation with Iran. U.S. policy can veer back and forth depending on the party or president in power who completely different perceptions of the region. Obama had sharp difference with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a different perception of Iran. Trump and Bolton see Iran as a threat to the U.S. After Iran shipped most of its nuclear fuel out of the country in 2016 in exchange for lifting of economic sanctions under president Obama's nuclear deal it would take over a year for new uranium enrichment facilities to produce the materials for a nuclear bomb, according to this report in the NYT. When the Obama administration negotiated with Iran the window had shrunk to a few months.   ...

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Al Maktoum is prime minister of Dubai. He points out some important facts about the Arab world. About half of the 300 million people in the Arab world are under the age of 25. Unemploment is very high among these 150 million Arab youth. About 50% of the jobless are youth, according to the prime minister. About 65 million of the Arabs are illiterate, and 10 million children under the age of 25 are not enrolled in any school. He points out that with so little education, the Arab youth are especially vulnerable to propaganda that creates extremism and is hostile to the west and the USA. One of his key points is that the Arab world is the most militarized place in the world, and spending on conflicts in the Middle East in the last 60 years is about $3 trillion. And in the last 15 years he says the spending on education which is 20% of what the world's 30 wealthiest countries spend, has dropped to 10% of that amount. And very little is being done to educate girls and give them opportunities. As a result of these convictions, Al Maktoum, who is also the ruler of Dubai and from the royal family, has committed about $3 billion to various initiatives to provide schooling to children, especially girls, and education for young people. This makes him one of the more enlightened leaders in the region pushing for new directions. This also reveals the critical weakness among the Arab peoples and why they tend to be so radicalized. Improvements in education and more opportunities for jobless youth, and creating a peaceful region -with the US and the EU countries committing to policies that lead to much diminished military sales to Mideast countries and reducing hostilities in the region -would do more to reduce anti-American sentiment in the region and improve US security than any other policy actions. As Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the Muslims of India share the same characteristics as the Arab peoples, and the same cultures, the same is true of this region, actually more so. Education has been even worse neglected in the South Asian Muslim region than among the Arabs. It is the key to peace, does more than troops to ensure the peace. The need is for more schools to be built and run in the region, for essential services like healthcare and development, and financing of job creating industries. ...

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Reinhart and Rogoff, 2 eminent economists who worked together on a book on financial crises since 1300, think that the current crisis has much deeeper to go, and the slight recovery in financial markets does not suggest that the imbalances in the economy are corrected. They point to economic weakness as a mechanism by which these imbalances are corrected. For example the economic weakness may be corrected by the weakening dollar resulting in accelerating exports from the U.S. The 1987 crisis had overvalued stock markets relative to earnings as an imbalance, and the 1998 LTCM crisis excessive hedge fund borrowing. Once these underlying imbalances were corrected the economic recovery was back on track. But the Fed's bailout of Bear Stearns has only put the financial markets on a safer footing. It has done little to correct the basic imbalances in the economy of over indebted consumers, and of lost wealth in housing, at the very moment that there is restricted access to credit. The financial market crisis only opened up the weakness from the extremely high leveraging used by the investment firms something like 1:30 by firms from M. Lynch to Goldman Sachs. The Fed's actions gave them time to shore up their finances and recover and the interest rate cuts and government checks help the economy, but not significantly enough to promote investment or increase consumption. The government checks would be used experts estimate for paying down debt and in this way it helps indebtedness a little, but does little to support consumption or promote investment, This the Fed's action also fails to do. The economy contracts and exports help the economy in recovering. The contraction itself say these economists is a necessary mechanism to make the adjustment in every crisis, until something else like exports helps create a recovery. Take December 1997, the Korean crisis. In this crisis the Korean companies invested heavily and were overextended , they borrowed heavily from the banks which in turn borrowed from overseas in dollars. When the Korean currency hit a record low against the dollar it became difficult for Korean companies to pay the increased cost of the dollar loans and many companies failed. As investment was slashed unemployment went up from 3% to 7.9%. Ted Truman, who worked on the Korean rescue effort as a Fed official, is now a scholar at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. He sees as similar to the overexpansion of housing and consumption in the U.S., the overexpansion and excessive borrowing in Korea's corporate sector in the years preceding 1997. After the rescue in Jan 1998, the Korean currency recovered by rising 63% in that year. Did this mean the crisis was over, just as the Bear Stearns bailout leads to gradually settling markets this year? During 1998 the Korean economy sank into a deep recession, the economy shrank 6% in 1998 when it was used to growing at 8%. Nouriel Roubini, another economist, who heads RGE Monitor, a financial and economic forecasting service, sees it this way. First, the mortgage loan imbalances are set into correction mode mechanism, then second, the economy contracts from housing and consumer debt going in reverse mode, then the third effects come into place as this feeds back into the financial system in the form of defaults on industrial loans, municipal bonds, and consumer credit. Additional sequences are in finacial system distress and government and Fed response to set the corrective mechanisms in place, but to also reduce the distress to the financial system and ensure that it is safe. We are where the first effects have ocurred, but before the second and third effects which should take place sometime in 2008 and 2009. The importance of understanding this cannot be overstated for business, planners, and investors because conducting business in this environment or planning or investing will require special skills and temperament which are different from the skills and temperament required in the expansion mode if one is to produce good results....

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Differing views of Republicans in the Senate on cuts to Medicaid and shifting of Medicaid to the states, cuts in food aid and distribution of the aid, green tax credits, business deductions are likely to lead to a revised bill being passed in the US Senate. It will then have to be passed in the US House of Representatives. DJT calls it the biggest tax cuts in history and one that aids small business.

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Independence Day celebrations on August 15 will be scaled down because of the coronavirus cases reaching about 2.5 million, third largest after U.S. and Brazil. Because of its large and diverse population early effective action has helped control the pandemic with a high recovery rate of between 70-90%, the prospect of an early vaccine from ICMR and proactive steps at a state and federal government level.

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How will posterity view Angela Merkel. As she ends a fourth term this BBC News report says it will remain a contested legacy. Much of what went right has already been written. A woman, a pragmatic scientist who hewed to the center not just as a scientist but with a knack for politics. Much of her early period in office was one in which she had to tackle the eurozone crisis. The euro's weakness had its roots in the way Mr Kohl allowed eurozone membership for countries such as Greece without adequate entry requirements. Some of the other problems were also left behind by an overzealous mentor Helmut Kohl who pushed for German reunification that never really happened in terms of bringing all east Germans into the idea of the Federal Republic. These problems in a neglected eastern part of Germany around Dresden were never tackled by Merkel. They were social issues that Merkel's pragmatic thinking failed to grasp. Letting in migrants from Arab and African countries was a move that Merkel made without realizing the full implications. This policy was reversed but led to the emergence of extreme right wing sentiment in parts of the country. It is left to a future German leader to tackle the social and economic disparities that affect Germany today. As time passes people reflect and a more careful view prevails. Dr Rudiger Schmitt-Beck reflects this when he says that the Merkel years were about  a bizarre mix of modernization and backwardness. Merkel rejected nuclear energy after the events at Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. As a scientist she was able to tackle such issues. Yet on the major social issues of the day Prof. Schmitt-Beck of the University of Mannheim, says she left Germany "grotesquely behind"- on child care, climate policy, digitization, infrastructure building, on demographic change. These are the issues that the Social Democrats and the Greens are standing up for today. Ironically Merkel may be remembered more for something that is not even mentioned in this BBC report. This is the European solidarity shown by action to financially support all EU countries including Italy with EU funding during the coronavirus pandemic.  This may be her biggest achievement because it will be lasting. Without it Europe would not be the better place it is today, resilient in the face of the pandemic.  Seen from outside Merkel will be seen as a German leader who failed to see the potential for India and other Asian countries with almost twice the population of China. Fascinated with 13 visits to China she studied Chinese history, politics and economics, says the WSJ. And did too little to balance Germany's close business and trade ties with China, with efforts in India and other countries. Seen from America as pointed out in the WSJ front page on September 23, Merkel made no effort to rebuild US relations with the Biden administration after the tumultuous period under presidents Obama with spying on her phone and with Mr. Trump over the EU's participation in NATO defense. She seemed resigned to a view that America had seen her best years, a belief that today does not exist anywhere in America. US president Biden's first phone call to Merkel was put off for a few days says the WSJ, and Merkel continued to build close ties with China, ignoring the fact that this was a new administration closer to that of presidents FDR and Harry Truman who did so much for Germany. And a president very different than any of Biden's five predecessors. ...

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Polls before the election show the SPD Social Demcorats, Greens and the Die Linke combined have a small majority of votes in German elections. Die Linke is the left party from the days of the party that ruled the GDR German Democratic Republic or East Germany under communist rule. In Berlin, Bremen, and the east German state of Thuringia the Social Democrats SPD, Greens and De Linke have formed coalition governments. With the emergence of right wing AfD in East Germany, the De Linke has emerged as an alternative to the established parties and the AfD in eastern Germany. Federal governments are difficult to form with the De Linke because of historical opposition to NATO. This may change as two younger leaders are now leading the party and in other policies there is similarity between the democratic socialist views of De Linke, SPD and the environmental policies of the Greens. FDP policy has generally not favored policies that favor working class, infrastructure investment, childcare and other issues important to voters in this election. This leaves the De Linke as a more likely alternative for a Greens SPD coalition partner if it can change to be flexible about its views on NATO. Today policies of president Biden in the US are also friendly to workers and families. This makes such a coalition possible if the socialist parties of the De Linke change to get things done instead of staying on the fringes of government. ...