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This editorial in the WSJ points to Bernie Sanders 15% lead over Donald Trump in a Jan. 2016 WSJ/NBC poll- with Hillary Clinton having a 10 point lead- as proof that Sanders should be taken seriously. It says that electability of Sanders is no longer an issue, especially because the 2016 election is coming up with many surprises, including a changed election environment. Other possibilities raised in the editorial- the possibility that an independent like Bloomberg might run if Trump is nominated, further increasing the chance for Sanders to be elected president. By splitting the Republican party a Trump or Cruz nomination could also put the House in jeopardy for the Republicans, removing the House as a check if a Democrat is elected president.

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Andrew Browne points out that the poll on Japanese premier Abe's visit to the Yasukuni shrine showed 46% of Japanese against and 41% for. Some of the people who were for simply were registering their opinion that a elected Japanese prime minister should not be dictated to in where he goes or cannot go. Browne delves into Abe's purpose and motivation. Abe, he says, has an expression for what he is after which translates into "leaving the post-war behind," the idea being to put Japan's image as a "good loser" behind. The larger purpose is to create a new role for Japan in Asia, and for Japanese to take pride in their achievements. This is not viewed the same way in the region because of the hypersensitivity in Korea to the colonial occupation by Japan, and the hypersensitivity of China to events during the Japanese occupation of parts of China.

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DJT administration makes English the official language of America in 2025. This makes learning English absolutely essential and gives English the place it has always held throughout the period since 1600 in the American colonies.  As the American colonies on the Eastern seaboard expanded to the Great Lakes and on to the prairies English was always the language of communication and as the colonies expanded through the Rocky mountains and to California and Washington English was always the language of communication. North of the American colonies the Quebec and Ontario colonies of Britain, later the Dominion of Canada as part of the British Empire made English the language of communication adding French only for Quebec. Not to know English well deprives one of the essential tools for functioning in America and deprives one of all the opportunities offered in the modern world.

 

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Senator Edward Kennedy turned a close election around with an ad in 1994 attacking Romney for job cuts. The result was a 58% to 41% defeat for Romney. In Iowa a Perry ad presses this issue saying "Mr Romney made millions buying companies and laying off workers."

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NYT's Landon Thomas gives this exceptional report on how Deutsche Bank changed from a lender to the German auto industry and safe banking practices to enter the derivatives business and other opaque financial products that led to taking on huge risks. Deutsche Bank has agreed on Dec. 22, 2016 to settle with the U.S. Justice Department paying a fine of $7.2 billion for practices relating to faulty mortgage securities. This report says the problems started in 1995 with Deutsche Bank's leadership hiring Edson Mitchell of Merrill Lynch to promote the investment banking business at Deutsche Bank. Mitchell hired two derivatives traders Broeksmit and Anshu Jain. Mr. Mitchell died in plane crash in 2000 when he was 47 years age, Mr. Broeksmit committed suicide in 2014, 58 years in age, Mr. Anshu Jain, 53 years old, is the only surviving person of the three. Under Mr. Jain Deutsche Bank assumed more and more risk, and was involved in complex and opaque financial products leading to the toxic mortgage crisis, and manipulation of the lending rate for London banks.  It also lent $300 million to Donald Trump's businesses. Most of the profits generated from this venture have evaporated, with analysts estimating $15 billion in fines and penalties owed of the $20 billion that these ventures generated. Not counting the serious damage to the bank's reputation in Germany and the U.S. This report points out the role played by the CEO from 2002 to 2012 of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, in encouraging these ventures converting the bank from its original loan as a contintental lender to business to a bank selling opaque financial products for most of its profits. Landon Thomas also describes the events and days leading up to the suicide by Broeksmit, including a visit to a psychiatrist and Broeksmit's facing enormous stress about the investigations underway in Germany and the U.S. looking into the opaque financial products and practices of Deutsche Bank. This is also a cautionary tale about what happened in banking from the late 1990's leading to the collapse in 2008, leading to the problems of today- the need to rescue the economy in 2008-2009 and the low rate world that ensued damaging the savings of ordinary people, the infrastructure that was never built, the parallel crisis of the hollowing out in manufacturing as a false prosperity boomed in banking and finance. In a sense it is also a story of everyday lives that were damaged in the high flying boardrooms of finance in New York, London and Frankfurt. The revolving door between regulators and the banks made it harder to monitor and control banking risk letting this story unfold over decades, damaging the credibility of governments and the established political parties without clear alternatives from outside; as the dominance of Wall Street executives in the new outsider Trump administration shows.  ...

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Chrysler's second quarter loss of $172 million, follows a first quarter loss of $197 million. Operating profit for the second quarter was $183 million, compared to $143 million in the first quarter. Chrysler's forecast is to breakeven on sales between $40-45 billion. Revenue was up by 8.2% in the second quarter to $10.5 billion. Main problem Chrysler faces is an old product lineup. A slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2010 and in 2011 could hurt Chrysler more than the other automakers. Chrysler has available cash of $7.84 billion and additional $2.3 billion available from U.S. Treasury and Canadian government loan agreements.

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Eighty six marchers will make the 386 kilometre walk from the Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad to Dandi, to commemorate the 75th anniversary of India's independence. Mohandas Gandhi made the march from Sabarmati Ashram to Dandi on the Arabian Sea to break British salt laws in a nonviolent protest against British rule, in March 1930. This march set the stage for the movement of Indian independence into its final stage. By the end of the war in 1945 the British Labor Attlee government made the decision for complete withdrawal and the last Viceroy Lord Mountbatten negotiated with Mohandas Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru and Sardar Patel for Indian independence.

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Years of low prices for soybeans and corn with competition from Russia and Brazil, combined with tariff war with China roiling agricultural markets, are leading to the highest bankruptcies in a decade for farmers in the U.S. in 2019. Dairy farmers are hit too with low milk prices.

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Tour de France director tests positive. French prime minister takes test after sharing car with the director of Tour de France.

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DW.com shows the Straits of Hormuz where the Persian Gulf meets the Gulf of Oman before it meets the Arabian Sea facing India. Ships cross a narrow space of 2 miles in the narrowest point that is 21 miles wide in the Straits of Hormuz. The UAE, Oman face Iran in that area. 20 million barrels of oil by tanker traffic cross the Straits of Hormuz every day. India, China, Japan and EU depend on the Straits of Hormuz for oil supplies making it critical for sea navigation. Iranian parliament  has threatened closing of the Straits as aresponse to the US strike on nuclear weapons development sites. China and India lose cheaper oil supplies from Iran as a result of the Israel-Iran war. Russia, Saudis, UAE, Qatar, gain because it increases the price of oil supplies from Russia. Iran loses a source of oil revenue with damage to its oil facilities. The Israeli economy is resilient and its stock markets are showing rapid growth as the war changes the Gulf region and  Southwest Asia, South Asia moving it in the direction of economic and business deals and agreements that enhance improvement in the lives of the people away from decades of conflict from the colonial era in which the British and the French gained control of the Gulf region and Iraq, Syria after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the anti colonial regimes that failed to provide development, the CIA's intervention under Dulles and Eisenhower to remove the democratically elected government of Mossadegh in Iran in 1953 and its repercussions in the Reagan period with Rumsfeld/Reagan compounding that error by supporting Iraq's Hussein leading to 3 decades of loss of American lives in the region's wars and also endangering Israel. ...

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The Obama administration's Small Business Jobs Act of Sept 2010 set aside $30 billion to stimulate lending to small business. Only 7% of 7700 U.S. lenders have signed up for the program so far. The deadline to sign up to participate has been extended from March 31 to May 16, 2011, by the Treasury Department. Banks have been hesitant to sign up for various reasons: banks say they see a stigma to taking these loans, and need additional staff to handle the extra paperwork. Banks say there isn't enough demand for loans from small business, or that there is enough capital already to handle larger better collateralized borrowers with the others considered too risky anyway.

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The number of households without a car increased the fastest in Detroit of any city in the U.S. from 2007 to 2012- by 5% to 26%. In a city which neglected to put in a rail system, many residents endure subzero temperatures for long waits and long commutes to job locations in the winter of 2014.

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The baffling situation where no executive from Lehman faced charges for accounting manipulation after a long S.E.C. investigation under S.E.C. chief Schapiro. The report by Lehman bankruptcy account examiner Valukos cited accounting manipulation. This NYT report says Mr. Canellos, the co-head of the enforcement unit, was supported by Robert Khuzami in the decision not to move ahead with charges, and S.E.C. Schapiro continued the investigation but did not make the decision to support moving ahead.

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Spain's new monarch, Felipe, brings a background of being carefully trained for the new position say most people in Spain from experts to taxi drivers, and brings educational training to understand the complex economic and constitutional issues facing modern Spain. He studied law at the Autonomous University of Madrid, and did his graduate education at Georgetown University in international relations. One columnist and constitutional scholar, Carreras Serra, says the prince has helped bring focus in meetings with government officials, and can skillfully conduct discussions on difficult topics of economics or constitutional law. His abilities are sorely needed as Spain navigates through a period of economic hardship with high unemployment, especially among the young. Relating to young people will be key test for Felipe and the monarchy. He starts off with considerable goodwill as 61% of Spaniards polled have a favorable opinion of him. Two leftist parties in Spain which view the monarchy as unnecessary for Spain won 18% of the vote in European parliamentary elections in May 2014, with the two main parties of post war Spain, the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, polling below 50% (a similiar situation in UK and France), provided a signal for Juan Carlos's abdication at 76. Spain's modernization was made possible by putting behind divisions from the traumatic twentieth century conflicts, and continued economic progress will require the same degree of skill and renewed committment from all parts of the political spectrum in Spain. Because of liberal tendencies existing in a conservative culture and history, Spain's best years and progress depend on keeping the social and political fabric together without divisions, and the monarchy earning and reearning its trust -side by side with the main political parties and young people seeking a better future- to keep it this way through coming generations....

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Difficulties facing a Obama administration, taking over in the middle of a huge economic crisis, with so many high expectations aroused by the lofty rhetoric that a letdown would occur for the faithful and young people energized by his candidacy were these expectations to remain unfulfilled. Two wars and their conduct could raise controversy as they cannot be abruptly be wound down and the Afghan war could present surprises as it has for all foreigners. And there are no easy solutions to the economic crisis which could be stubborn and prolonged like the one faced by Japan and its lost decade. Japan had a leader in Koizumi who energized the Japanese during their economic crisis years, some changes ocurred but Japan still labors on and its a different country now without the same hardworking ethic and cando spirit among the young. And there are no easy solutions like investing heavily in infrastructure and energy and providing healthcare to all working people, because with the one trillion dollars going to shore up the financial system and the banks there is only so much Obama and Democrats can do with public spending without much higher deficits and other difficulties. Not delivering on these promises or delivering inadequately could lead to a letdown for supporters. And for black people and Hispanics in the working class, and workers who have lost jobs as unemployment rises especially in the auto industry in the midwest where he got much of his crucial support, the conditions are tough with jobs scarce and rising home foreclosures, for which the government may be able to help but only in a limited way as the economic crisis may take a long time to unwind. ...

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The US sees no contradiction to India looking for bargain priced oil from Russia to meet the growing needs of its economy and is actually furthering the goals of the G-7 by lowering the price Russia gets for its oil. It helps the economy of 1.2 billion people that like the rest of the world has struggled to fight the pandemic and has incurred the kind of heath costs that even China is now struggling to pay for. President Biden clearly understands and supports this. Democracies an only succeed if they fulfill the aspirations of their people. On this point Biden made clear in his State of the Union that he will generate what it takes from large corporations that paid no tax, to invest in America. Rather than fuel the profits of large oil companies India has increasingly chosen to use Russian discounted oil to invest in India. The Biden and Modi policies are identical generate savings and invest big time in trillions of dollars over the next few years to put democracies ahead in meeting rising aspirations that have been unfulfilled for far too long, which is where the real battles are being fought and will be won, and rightly so. US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, Geoffrey Pyatt,  said during a visit to New Delhi on Feb. 16-17- "Our experts now assess that India right now is enjoying a discount of about USD 15 a barrel in the price that it is paying for its imports of Russian crude. So by acting in its own interest, by driving a hard bargain to get the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of our G7 coalition, our G7 plus partners in seeking to reduce Russian revenues."  Looking at the bigger picture the problem was created by Germany under Merkel who built Germany's over dependency on Russian oil to power a cheap fuel economy it thought was in Germany's interest. This is now being reversed by the hard work of Mr. Habeck of the Green party in the coalition government of Scholz in securing alternative supplies in record time for the EU to avoid a recession. In this sense the perception created early of India which has suffered itself from invasions in 1962 and incursions in the Himalayas more recently, it is not a problem India can solve by becoming energy short at a time when it has invested so much in fighting the pandemic. A similar problem was created by Republican and Democratic administrations of the past that concentrated the supply chain in one country. India lost much investment in the last 8 years as a result of the policies of Merkel's Germany and past Republican Democratic administrations in concentrating the supply chain in one country. ...

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Challenges facing McChrystal, his blunt assessment, who says his troops are in the situation of apowerful but stupid bull lunging after insurgents. More important to protect the Afghan population he says to his troops tna to kill insurgents. But do the people think this way or do they simply wnat to be left alone by both the Taliban and the American forces if they could speak their mind. See Intelilinks for ground reports including Kearns Goodwin.

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Tech is not going to fix this, say software experts from tech companies. Google and Apple's efforts in coming up with an app have fizzled out, says this report in thee WSJ. Has the U.S. lost precious time in waiting for an app by tech companies to be developed, instead of doing what India and Britain have done. India introduced its own app Aarogya Setu app from the Indian government. Britain had the National Health Service develop its app. India acted quickly. Is an app needed or essential? Germany decided that contact tracing based on Asian country experience was mainly about human contact tracers with skills to make the phone calls. All they needed was a centralized database on a computer and a phone. Germany set up teams at offices in each district in Germany and quickly plodded ahead even if all the offices were not fully staffed. In fact a third of the offices needed more people and resources. Yet the speed of action is something like 80 to 90% of the contact tracing effort when the team has the skill set to call. This is because clusters of infections do not wait - they spread. There is simply no time to waste. The German effort has produced the best results so far of any country of this size- Germany has 85 million people. The reproduction ratio is at 1.13 and Germany remains vigilant. It is the first country to reopen in Europe, and is methodically doing the right actions, much that the world can and should learn from. Contact tracing teams worked round the clock in the early days, they are still hard at work today, using their human skills to talk to people and find out who they were in contact with, calling the contacts in turn, at each step working to isolate where needed with followup calls from the state health departments. ...

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Much of the information Friedman says comes from Ruchir Sharma could be seen through simple observation. By the time it is written about so much has already happened. For example Tech firms crowding out innovative new firms starting from scratch is happening since 2000, from the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. By the time the concept makes it into the economics textbooks many years later it is obsolete. In economics textbooks of the eighties crowding out referred to governments crowding out private firms in the competition for capital. Concepts of comparitive advantage in economics textbooks were similarly obsolete when Japanese and Chinese competition in the last three decades brought into play a very different model of competition of subsidized private and state run companies focussed on dominating key industries that never made it into textbook economics and theories of experts. Comparitive advantage theory in textbooks were too simplistic not able to account for real life situations in which a determined national competitor could move up the ladder every few years in sophistication and technology to compete in products at many levels. The old textbooks simply said Portugal would make wine because it had some advantages and America with its advantages in steel production would make steel. This kind of theory put many people to sleep as other nations took over American markets- first steel, then electronics, then telecom, and then renewable energy. To protect American workers Robert Lighthizer and other American negotiators of trade with China, Japan, South Korea, used their own head and observation of what was happening. This was a better guide to the best response to protect American workers. Doing what makes sense, doing what works for final delivery point to the intended beneficiary, the American worker, or European worker, or Indian worker, provides a better way to get things done.   ...

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A former solicitor general questions the 4 page summary of Attorney General Barr as a misrepresentation of the findings of the Mueller investigation following the protest by Mr. Mueller himself that the findings were distorted in the summary. It defeated the very purpose of appointing the Special Counsel. It was upto Congress to come up with its conclusions according to how the U.S. constitutional process was intended to work on questions of national importance, and not the Attorney General appointed by the president. Neal Katyal helped draft the regulations about the way a special counsel is supposed to operate. He can show the findings on each matter whether the president is cleared or not cleared, bu it is Congress that has to make up its mind and come up to its own conclusions. That is Congress's role and not the Attorney General's role. By taking on Congress's role and drafting a 4 page report that exonerates the president Mr. Barr has violated the letter and the spirit of the regulations set for the Special Counsel's office. Mr. Katyal concludes this article saying -"There is no more sacred duty for Congress than gettting to the bottom of whether our president has taken care that the laws of this country have been faithfully executed." He says in drafting the special counsel office regulations he and others had thought of the possibility of there being "a nefarious Attorney General" though "we didn't predict this amount of duplicity."  The U.S. Congress now faces the challenge of getting to the bottom of the matter and drawing its own conclusions. Katyal questions polls showing that the public does not want further inquiry because he says the Attorney General has created confusion, misrepresented Mr. Mueller and delayed the release of the Mueller Report to the public.     ...

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Saudi Arabia and Iran are moving in the direction of taking away repressive rules and giving women more freedom in daily lives. Under Prince Salman Saudi Arabia is changing. Women can now drive in Saudi Arabia. As the role of religion is being reduced in Saudi public life women are now free to live more normal lives. Under new rules women will be able to drive motorcycles and trucks. The Tehran police chief has issued instructions that women be no longer detained if they do not wear proper hijab head covering in public. The two countries are competing with each other to show it is more modern to the international community, say some commentators. Others see the changes in Iran for hijab head covering not strictly enforced as part of the difficulty of enforcing these rules in court, as more younger women do not follow the rules strictly as in the past. Iran now substitutes educational classes in its enforcement, showing the gradual changes in Islamic societies. ...