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The US Federal Reserve, America's central bank, would rather see a recession than for inflation to get a hold in the US. Another way of saying this is that the Fed sees the American economy fundamentally strong under the Biden administration as it strengthens protections for workers and families, corrects flaws in policies for rural America and in other areas, moves to attract foreign investment and gets US companies to invest in America. This makes the danger of inflation greater than a recession, so that a policy of aggressive action with interest rates is justified.

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Paul Hannon in the WSJ tells the story of how the Swiss now support the 15% corporate minimum tax. 78% of Swiss voters support the new tax in a referendum. Switzerland is now trying to change the bad reputation it had gained as a place companies moved to shift profits to low income tax locations. Switzerland now joins 35 countries implementing the 15% corporate tax in 2024 and 2025, including the 27 members of the European Union, Australia, Japan, France and the UK. 15 other countries say they will do so in that time frame.

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US president Biden joins a UAW picket line in Detroit. Biden says he supports the UAW in its wage negotiations for 40% increase in wages. Workers wages are depressed because of concessions made a decade ago to ensure the survival of the US auto companies. UAW leader Shain Fawn was elected directly by the rank and file members for the first time. He has gone back to the UAW's roots for strike action, as it seeks to reverse concessions on tiered wages and address the cost of living crisis. 

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The WSJ editorial pages which have for years warned of the situation at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac where government guarantees for these two companies are provided without adequate and appropriate oversight resulting in huge risks if these companies go under in this mortgage crisis. WSJ opinion thinks its a bad idea to let these companies borrow from the Fed's discount window as Senator Dodd has suggested and is wary of the collusion between politicians who get campaign cash from these companies and the companies, and argues for government help given in condition of overhaul and strong supervision and gradually a winding down of these companies because of the risks they pose.

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Zero covid lockdowns have added to the sentiment seeing China as a less attractive location for foreign investment. American companies are seeing staff resign due the lockdowns and zero covid policy. About a fourth of companies in a US Chamber of Commerce survey see a 20% drop in sales in 2022. A similar situation is being seen for European companies in China. The other area of growth from property sector is not working anymore as there is a 59% drop in demand for new property units. Investors in the property sector fear  another situation like that of property developer Evergrande's collapse.  Similar to Japan by 2000 a lot of the government infrastructure for roads and rail and automobiles has already been built leaving less room for this sector to kick in. Investments are possible in AI, renewables, electric cars, and advanced technologies, with limited potential to tackle loss of jobs in other sectors such as construction and government financed infrastructure spending and in retail stores. Retail sales are hit by inflation and high gas prices. The result is that China's GDP may fall by 1% according to one estimate for this quarter from the previous year. For growth and foreign investment look to India where a surge in government financed infrastructure in construction of roads and rapid transit, fast rail, construction of housing, and rapid increase in use of mobile phones, automobiles, and appliances is taking place. A new logistics system is being built with a Master plan for the whole economy under Gati Shakti creating a whole new place for foreign investment in a country of 1.3 billion. With Indonesia and Bangladesh closely related to India this is a market of 1.8 billion people far surpassing China and built on values of democracy ingrained over 100 years since the experiments under the British of elected state assemblies. This happened under limited Hind Swaraj since 1930's when India was led by Mohandas Gandhi in these early experiments with democracy. Germany, France and the US have a lot in common with India and the ground is being prepared with improvements for extensive German, US foreign investment by the Modi administration.  ...

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Cinemas opened in July in Britain.Cineworld which operates 124 cinema theatres in Britain plans to close after major film companies postponed major releases till April next year. The one film that was expected, a James Bond film with Daniel Craig in No Time To Die is being postponed till next year. About 5500 jobs will be affected and people affected can only go back to work after cinemas reopen.

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Three factors make up risk in diversification and risk reduction through bonds in 2025 with the estimated 1.5 -3 trillion in spending planned by 2030 with $400 billion in 2025 alone. AI in corporate bond indexes up to 15% and reach 20% by 2030 vs 40% of stock indexes (JP Morgan),  AI risk in bonds diversification from over issuance and downgrades is something to look at. One cannot assume bonds will reduce risk in the same way as before with overissuance of corporate bonds to power AI spending by Tech companies. There is also the risk to the Nation in the massive capital misallocation of funds that will crowd out essential spending in the crumbling infrastructure of the Nation, in education and healthcare, that degrade American leadership in industry, science and technology.

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Bill Gates resigned his seat on Microsoft Board on March 13, 2020. This report in the WSJ looks at the situation at Microsoft in late 2019 when members of the Microsoft Board hired a law firm to conduct an investigation in late 2019 after a Microsoft female engineer's letter. This was a company that Gates founded and which expanded through acquisitions of other smaller companies.  The same day he resigned his seat on Berkshire's Board led by Warren Buffett. Mr. Gates started Microsoft in 1975, was CEO till 2000, and chairman till 2014. He then turned to work with his Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.   Microsoft has market value of $1.8 trillion, Apple a value of $2.1 trillion.  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has assets of $37 billion income of $53 billion, and the personal assets of Bill and Melinda Gates have an estimated value of $130 billion. One of the mistaken assumptions is that any one foundation such as the Bill Gates foundation has the resources, knowledge, technologies, expertise and leadership to tackle problems that confront large countries such as the US, India, or a bloc such as European Union. Imagine some billionaire taking on the role of a Franklin Delano Roosevelt in tackling the Depression or a billionaire tackling the problem India faces today in public health. It is only governments of the US, India and large nations such as the UK that can pull together the resources needed and the cooperation needed between its industrial base companies to achieve goals for public health. This type of effort can pull together resources of trillions of dollars that no one company or billionaire or group of billionaires can put together, and pull together massive resources of engineers, scientists, and other people across hundreds of companies that cannot even be measured. This is one of the lessons of this pandemic because the WHO was left with the job of handling the pandemic and governments of US, France, UK, Germany, India, Russia and leading nations had retreated from their essential role as guardians of the public interest in people's health and left much of the task to others. As they reassume this role this needs to be given a firm and solid footing and lessons learned. ...

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The U.S. Supreme Court's 6-3 decision against Aereo. Justice Breyer writing an 18 page opinion stated: "We conclude that Aereo is not just an equipment supplier." Adding that Aereo had a "overwhelming likeness" to cable companies which have to pay fees to retransmit broadcast programming. Breyer rejected Aereo's argument that it did not make copyright violations because of the technical makeup of its system, saying that "we do not see how the fact that Aereo transmits via personal copies of programs could make a difference."

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Walmart with 2000 H1-B visa offers for the first half odf 2025 halts the process in October 2025. Amazon had 10,000 H1-B offers highest number of H1-B visas offers by June 2025, Microsoft, Apple and Google had 4000 such job offers. India makes up 70% of the H1-B visa program and CHina 12%. It hurts the US workforce by bringing in lower paid IT workers to replace higher paid American workers. Bloomberg has adocumentary on the H1-B visa program that highlights abuse of the program that hurts American workers by the Tech companies. It also hurts India by diverting talented engineers needed for India's rapid modernization and creating a culture in which talented engineers in India look outside the country for jobs.

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During the first quarter 41% of the passenger cars sold in N. America went to rental car fleets. A big number. GM expects to reduce this by 5-10% in 2007. In 2006 GM sales to fleets are expected to be 600,000, with an estimate of 540,000 for 2007. Changes in rental car fleets include- older cars being phased out and replaced by newer models at higher prices which will now stay on the rental fleet for 9-12 instead of 6-8 months, with higher mileage approaching 30,000 which puts them outside the range of new cars. In previous years a rental car company would put cars used for 6-12 months back on the market resulting puting them in competition with new cars and bringing down new car prices. Rental companies like Hertz Avis etc buy about 2 million cars a year.

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China's battery company CATL's efforts to license its technology to American companies in the EV vehicle business. Contemporary Amperex Technologies China's largest maker of battery technology sees geopolitical tensions in a different way- business lasts for decades and governments are here for 4-5 years. It sees opportunity in the US and is using a model where American EV makers license technologies from CATL and own the factory in the US that makes the electric batteries. It has done this with Ford Motor which has its own factory and uses a technology licensed from CATL.

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WSJ investigations of Facebook and Instagram showed how these social media companies business activity was damaging to young women's health in the US, Europe and other countries. Because of the reach of social media companies into the lives of millions of young people the damage was serious and extensive. This report in the WSJ describes the activities of management at Facebook and the resignation of one of the key executives from burnout herself. This WSJ report says that during the WSJ series on the investigations this and other key executives remained silent on the issues facing young women for mental health in the use of Facebook products.  One WSJ report in 2021 said that company documents showed Facebook knew that the company's products were toxic for teenage girls. Other issues emerged in the WSJ investigations such as the Outrage Algorithm which the WSJ says was made by tweaking some aspects of the company's algorithm as a way to counter dropping user engagement. This led to much angrier discourse on Facebook according to WSJ and other reports. The experiences at Facebook reflect the general experience of this period in 2000-2015 when business management shifted to an entirely different conception of business that ignored the importance of human values in the blind pursuit of rapid growth, profits to make acquisitions of smaller companies for further growth creating monopolistic firms. This extended to disruptions of democratic process with the Cambridge Analytica access to records of data of 87 million Facebook users as reported in WSJ, that were used to target social media users in the period leading to the 2018 election. With such activities the risks could be seen to the democratic process itself in addition to mental health by the emergence of social media in the short period of a dangerous decade 2010-2020, when there was little or no regulation of this medium.   ...

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Generation Z, the generation born between mid 1990's and 2010 is highly collaborative and favors working together. It is passionate about unionizing workers as a way to prevent more workers from falling into poverty or income insecurity during a cost of living crisis, and to obtain benefits from employers such as time off for illness or for things essential for quality of life. In 2023 71% of the American public supports unions and unionizing as the pendulum has swung too far in the favor of employers and large companies with declining union membership and a culture that often treats workers with a lack of respect or dignity.

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Even though there is extensive financing it will take the global research community about one year to develop a good vaccine. There are so many labs and companies in China, USA, France, Germany, Australia, Canada doing the research that it is difficult to provide an overview.

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Manufacturing output showed brisk growth in the first quarter of 2011, growing at four times the estimated rate for the overall U.S. economy. The PNC Financial Group estimates growth for the first quarter for the overall economy at 2%. This growth is supported by exports to developing countries in Asia and Latin America with the help of a weaker dollar. American companies are also increasing investment in computers, machinery and other equipment. This has increased growth and profits for companies such as Intel, Caterpillar, Eaton, and United Technologies. Manufacturing in the U.S. is rebounding from the sharp drop in 2008-2009. During the first quarter it increased at an annual rate of 9.1% according to the Federal Reserve. In the second half of 2011 manufacturing is expected to slow to about 4%, according to Manufacturer's Alliance/MAPI. So far manufacturing has shrugged off concerns about oil prices approaching $110 a barrel and the earthquake in Japan. This growth has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Averages to 12453, the highest close since June 2008....

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This WSJ editorial board article points out that legal enforcement under new formal rules agreed to by China is essential to replace former Chinese promises on trade.

U.S. companies need to be able to report abuses particularly in relation to handing over technology and have rule based action taken immediately as a response, says the WSJ. Better still the U.S. needs to coordinate its action with the European Union and Japan.

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The risks companies face in having members of Boards serve for long periods of time, sometimes decades. The situations and the world changes, board members "become stale," or worse fail to question and exercize intelligent oversight over company decisions preferrring compromise to constructive criticism.

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Trade in services is not enough. Services won't build ships for the US Navy. Services don't provide jobs for factory workers. Trade in services won't rebuild the US manufacturing base. It won't rebuild the middle class. Trade in services won't make pharmaceuticals Made in America that are available always, including in times of war, pandemics and disruptions. Bottom line as DJT pointed out in a Cabinet meeting on April 10 is that the US could no longer be a world power without its industrial base, it's manufacturing base. Americans companies doing the outshoring are really the targets of the Tariffs because they are at the heart of the mechanisms causing the destruction of the industrial and manufacturing base of America, vital for it's security and for it's leadership of the free world and western civilization. It started with Apple in 1998 and I witnessed this as a consultant seeing the production line at the Apple Colorado Springs plant in 1997 with rework and defective product before Steve Jobs returned to Apple. By 1998 Apple started shipping it's entire production base to China. DJT told the Cabinet meeting on April 10, 2025, all previous presidents had to tell companies firing all their workers and outshoring their machines was- "there will be a tariff of 50 or 100% on your products imported into the US."  And these companies would never have fired all their workers and sent their factories to China or some other country. Economists and experts who have turned their backs on American workers see the $1 trillion deficit countries have with China and the loss of their industrial and manufcturing base with one excuse or another. Trade in Services in which the USA has an advantage does not do much for American workers, or for the 5 million manufacturing jobs lost and tens of thousands of factories that have been outshored.  National Security and Jobs, the Middle Class, factory communities across all 51 states are all at stake. ...

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Local investment companies were allowed to borrow beyond their limits after the financial crisis of 2008. There are about 8000 local investment companies (LIC's) and they were used during 2008-2010 to get funds quickly to projects. The LIC's borrowed for local governments, and borrowed extensively to build roads, railroads, power plants, and other infrastructure and buildings. Northwestern University Professor Shih has followed this carefully, and estimates LIC debt owed to banks at $1.68 trillion, or 34% of China's GDP. Some of the banks have collateral in land, but many banks are relying on the ability of the local governments to pay back the loans. And some of this is in money losing projects.

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The critical exchange between oil companies and auto companies about who is at fault for the energy crisis. In one ad that ran last year, Chevron argued that "if automakers improved fuel economy across the board by just 5 mpg, we'd save over 22 billion gallons of gasoline a year." The criticism is also sparked by the high price of oil which is hurting sales of pickups and large SUV's that the automakers depend on for profits. One ad by Exxon Mobil shows a cartoon of a large SUV filling up at a gas station and hints that the problem rests with the automakers who have failed to build the kind of highly fuel efficient vehicles that are needed. The ad says that the average fuel economy of new U.S. autos has not gone up much in two decades, the small gains have been offset by the increases in the size and weight of vehicles.

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Laurent Berger, head of the French Confederation of Labor, C.F.D.T., is a moderating force in France as president Macron leads an effort to make a revision to France's labor code. With a large parliamentary majority president Macron is expected to push for a shift to a Scandinavian version of "flexible security," that allows companies and the economy to adjust the work force, introduce retraining and create flexibility so that new jobs can be created. His union is now the largest, after surpassing the militant General Confederation of Labor. Issues in labor changes proposed by president Macron are- direct negotiations between management and employees bypassing unions, and a cap to compensation in unfair dismissal cases. Berger's view is that though the interests of labor and management conflict, there has to be dialogue instead of constant confrontation. He is willing to see some jobs lost if business creates new jobs with improvement in the economy. Macron has summoned labor leaders for marathon talks. ...

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"Trees not Warehouses" read signs protesting the building of more warehouse space in the US as residents protest the bringing of more noise, pollution and heavy duty trucks to their neighborhoods.Companies added over 1.5 billion square feet of new industrial space across the US from 2017, says this report in WSJ. A similar wave of building industrial space is taking place in Europe for warehouses. Communities from Pittsburgh to Madison, Wisconsin and neighborhoods in expanding logistics regions in Southern California and eastern Pennsylvania. Many say their communities are under siege. To get goods to people faster companies are still planning but have not made the shift to bringing construction back home or closer to home so that this kind of huge warehousing space is no longer needed. Much of this warehousing space may no longer be needed as more sustainable, more reliable,  shorter supply chains take the place of current ones that have concentrated all manufacturing in one country, China, at the hidden costs to local communities and companies. Through many hidden costs that have not been fully quantified in terms of quality of living in communities, loss of jobs and infrastructure through loss of tax revenues, carbon footprint of products shipped over thousands of miles, hidden logistics costs, rampant inflation in logistics costs, and significant loss of manufacturing knowhow that cannot be easily replaced. This is a result of decades of building such supply chains that no longer fit the needs of today. ...

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The Potential Gas Committee 2013 report showing the U.S. has 2384 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources. The report did not identify the resources that can be extracted at a reasonable cost. This figure is 90 times the gas used in the U.S. in 2012, and about 26% higher than a report by the same industry group in 2010. About 20 companies have applied for permits to export liqufied natural gas from the U.S. to other countries.

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This report in the WSJ says shale oil investments have not turned out to be profitable as expected. It cites Evercore ISI saying energy companies spent $280 billion more than they generated on shale investments since 2007. The paltry returns mean there is now more pressure to increase returns.