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Barley points to the other factors surrounding the ECB decision for massive monetary easing on Jan. 22, 2015. THe ZEW and IFO business sentiment indicators show an upward trend, and the German economy is picking up momentum in 2015. The lower oil prices, and the decline in the euro boosting exports, are two other factors pointing to higher growth in 2015. Just as the U.S. QE program came at a time when economic conditions were improving, the same can be said for the Draghi ECB QE program in Europe, says Barley. Draghi appears to have sent a strong signal to financial markets, just as he accomplished in July 2012, when bond yields of Spain and Italy were over 7%.

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The legacy of extremely low interest rates near zero left by Italian banker Mario Draghi has he leaves the European Central Bank to be succeeded by French head of the IMF Christine Lagarde. There is considerable division in the ECB as Draghi launches yet one more program of bond buying called QE for quantitative easing- in effect reducing the interest rate of the ECB to minus 0.5%. All this is being done to address problems of economic growth in the eurozone which originate from other causes such as poor banking practices, overborrowing by member states and lack of transparency in countries such as Greece, the lack of investment in infrastructure, increase in part time workers in economic uncertainty generated from poor banking, essentially a lost decade. The ECB's monetary policy committee staff oppose the move and so do 7 of 25 members in the governing council.  Instead of tackling root causes this had the adverse effect of hurting savers in Europe and the U.S. leading to higher inequality and wearing out of social safety nets.   ...

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Moody's lowered Italy's credit ratings by two notches from A3 to Baa2, putting it two levels from junk territory. Moody's views are that Italy was subject to increasing deterioration in market confidence with contagion from Spain, as Spain may need more support and its banking system is likely to have more losses than expected. Moody's also sees diminished overseas investments in Italy. Its assessment is for a 2% decline in GDP in 2012. High debt levels and significant funding needs in 2012-2013 are also taken into account in this rating.

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Greece spends 2.2% of GDP on the defense budget compared to 1.2% for Germany for 2014, according to the World Bank. Greece's Syriza government almost took Greece out of the eurozone over spending cuts for the poorest pensioners, submitted the proposed creditor terms for the cuts to a referendum in a manner reminiscent of the rejection of an ultimatum rejected by Greece from Mussolini for occupation of the country, using the term "Oxi" in Greek for "No." Greeks remember this with a postage stamp showing "Oxi," so embedded it is in the Greek memory. And about 85% of young people in Greece vote for "Oxi" in the July 5, 2015 referendum. Why is a NATO member spending so much on defense during a severe crisis, and is the EU right to insist on cuts in defense spending and some of the other reforms. Between 2000 and 2008 Greece's spending on military was about twice the euro area average- close to 3% for Greece compared to about 1.4% for Germany, and much lower in other countries in the euro area. The total Greece debt is not an issue the way it was earlier in 2010-2012, according to experts including Krugman and the former Greece finance minister in separate opeds in the NYT, as its now financed at very low rates, and the next step inevitably under any administration in Berlin and Athens would have been longer maturities and even lower rates- under any administration in Greece, including under Samaras- as the Germans, the Dutch and the French, know deep down it can never be fully repaid. The main issue of money transfer to creditors was tackled by changing the dateline for the surplus the largest issue according to experts, a similiar flexibility shown to Italy, Spain and France for their deficits as their economies suffered from spending cuts, high unemployment. This returns the focus for how Greece can manage its budget prudently including military, welfare, and other areas. The referendum did not change the way Greece will tackle spending under EU guidelines after the Syriza left government accepts the new 3 year package negotiated with the EU in Brussels July 12, 2015. The new plan will include $300 million in cuts for military spending by 2016, and shipowners will now pay taxes....

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The Economist warns in this editorial and cover issue that if Germany and the European Union do not act fast the Greek crisis could have a Lehmann like effect on Europe's banking systems, with a sovereign default. This would threaten the weaker economies of Portugal, Spain and Italy. As Simon Johnson has done on the pages of the New York Times, the Economist calls the German government and Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of this crisis filled with ineptitude. Instead of leading the German people and giving a true account of things she followed public opinion- to see that Greece was punished for its mistakes and to provide a lukewarm show of support. A true account would have shown how Germay has gained from the euro, the huge portion of Greek debt that German banks hold, and the losses that the government would have to step in and avert in its banking system if Greece defaulted. Waiting till after a big regional election in Germany on May 9, was to show a lack of grasp of how such a crisis could explode if Greece in the meantime was shut out of capital markets (yield on Greek bonds shot up to 20%). Helping Greece was more in Germany's interest than an act of charity that public opinion in Germany seems to think it is. Other mistakes the Economist cites are- the idea that going to the IMF would be humiliating thus not bringing in the IMF actively much earlier. In the view of these experts it is the ineptitude that led to the loss of confidence in financial markets that now necessitates a much larger aid package for Greece, from $60 billon to $150 billion. The other is to have a slow decision making machinery in the Eurozone and knowing this not to have taken more aggressive action. Suggestions from the Economist as an adhoc measure- set up a single crisis management committee to make quick decisions. Set up a firewall between Greece and the other states like Spain and Italy so that contagion does not spread, with these countries also being shut out of financial markets at some future date if the situation deteriorates. The other is that the European governments should setup inter-governmental liquidity lines, and the European Central Bank act using the new arrangements....

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Malaysia's debt to GDP ratio increased to 242% in mid-2012 from 192% in 2008 according to McKinsey. As export growth has slowed the Malaysian government is relying on credit expansion to consumers and large capital projects such as the planned subway project in Kuala Lumpur to sustain growth. Similiar credit expansion is seen in other Asian countries- Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong. The period 2008 to 2013 has seen a rapid acceleration in credit expansion in these countries and especially in China. China's debt to GDP ratio increased to 183% in mid 2012 from 153% in 2008, according to McKinsey. Nomura Holding's economist Zhiwei Zhang, and other economists say it is above 200% when government data on "shadow banking" lending institutions such as trust companies is included. IMF economist Giovanni Dell'Ariccia has studied of debt expansion and credit booms since the 1970's. He and other economists at the IMF have found that credit booms- the rapid increase in credit to GDP ratios- end up in crises one third of the time, result in below par growth in another third of the time, and only in one third of the time does growth continue at the high pace. Alex Frangos talks to government officials in Kuala Lumpur who do not take seriously the high vacancy rate for office buildings in the capital of about 20% even as new office towers are being built. Bob Davis gives the example of government owned Hunan Expressway company in China which has a huge road building program and doubled its 2009 debt levels. Another state owned company in shipping China Cosco Holdings increased total debt from 85 billion yuan in 2009 to 123 billion yuan in 2012. As export growth slowed in China in 2009 credit expansion is driving growth. The normal restraints of the market are absent in China's state owned companies. Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch Ratings Inc in Beijing, says 2012 demonstrated that the Chinese government cannot slow credit growth without risking a decline in growth. China's GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2013 slowed to 7.7% from 7.9% in the 4th quarter of 2012. This poses a serious problem for China. China has never experienced the kinds of problems seen in Asia after the 1997 banking crisis, in the eurozone today, and in the U.S. following the financial crisis of 2008, making government officials prone to complacency about the risks....

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This WSJ editorial says that if BNP Paribas wants to do business in the U.S., it has to abide by U.S. laws. U.S. laws and sanctions against Iran were violated in BNP Paribas currency and other dealings with Iranian clients in 2002-2009. Similiar conduct happened for Sudanese clients.

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German chancellor, Angela Merkel's advisor, Uwe Corsepius, briefed European Union ambassadors on the draft document for EU economic integration, prepared by the German ministry. This document identifies six priorities: abolition of wage indexation systems, agreement on mutual recognition of education qualifications, creation of a common base for assessing corporate tax, adjustment of the pension systems, establishment of a national crisis management regime for banks and new legal measures to force countries to commit to tough fiscal policies through a "debt alert mechanism." Under the plan countries will be assessed agaist economic indicators and tracked by the European Commission. Other steps Merkel is proposing are coordinating retirement ages across countries. See the interview with Portugal's prime minister Socrates, where he supports the coordination of the retirement age. Socrates does not commit to taking out the adjustment of wages for inflation in that interview. The leaders of 27 countries of the EU meet February 4 in Brussels, and this document will be discussed at the meeting....

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On the surface Turkey's implementation of an IMF program to reduce its deficit in 2001 has lessons for Greece, but looked at closely the situation has some serious differences. Turkish tax collection was weak and this was corrected by the incoming Erdogan administration, salaries were capped and spending was reduced, taxes raised and state assets sold to improve the deficit. But as Tim Ash an economist at RBS bank points out, achieving GDP growth will be very difficult for Greece. For one thing Turkey's lira fell 54% against the dollar in 2001, spurring exports and increasing growth. Greece is part of the euro currency system and this won't be part of the solution. Also Turkey's debt approached 80% of GDP in 2001 (down to 46% of GDP now), compared to 115% for Greece in 2010, so Greece is in a much worse position than Turkey in 2001. Ash sees a restructuring of debt as the best way to restore growth in Greece.

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Early opinion polls show Macron the more convincing candidate in the first television debate held in March with 29 percent in an Elabe poll, with Le Pen at 19 percent. An OpinionWay poll shows Macron more convincing at 24 percent and Le Pen at 19 percent. Polls show Le Pen winning 27 percent of the vote in the first round with candidate Fillon on the right and Melenchon, Hamon on the left splitting the vote. In the second round with two candidates the vote shift of other right and left candidates determines the outcome. The second round then hinges on whether French middle and working class voters see risks to their economic future in leaving the EU, and whether appeals to nationalism and anti-immigrant rhetoric works enough to draw support from a centrist candidate.