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Pakistan has moved ahead in developing its nuclear arsenal. The production of uranium and plutonium for bombs and developing new weapons to deliver them has actually been accelerated during the recent period of unrest in Pakistan. Four years ago Pakistan had an estimated 30 to 60 weapons. Hans Kristensen, is the director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists and author of the annual global nuclear weapons inventory published by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Kristensen says it is not unreasonable to say that Pakistan has produced at least 100 weapons. Simon Gregory, Director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Britain's University of Bradford, puts the number at between 100 and 110. India is estimated to have 60 to 100 nuclear weapons. A 2008 agreement that lets India purchase nuclear fuel for civilian purposes was a motivation for accelerating nuclear weapons development in Pakistan. In December 2008, Peter Lavoie, the US intelligence officer for South Asia, told NATO officials that despite impending economic catastrophe, Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world," according to classified State Department cables released late last year by the Intenet site WikiLeaks. This leak angered the Pakistan army chief Gen. Kayani who said "the real aim of US war strategy is to denuclearize Pakistan."...

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The S-400 antiaircraft missile defense system used by Russia is changing the way U.S. operates as an undisputed air power. It has not been tested in operations yet it has affected use of U.S. air power in difficult spots around the world. Russia says it is its way of contesting a U.S. led world order. Purchases of the system by China and India allow Russia to spread the cost of the system with a smaller budget for defense. 

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A quick look at the graph in this Times Report shows the carbon dioxide CO2 emissions for the US, European Union, China and the Rest of the World in 2020. For the EU it is about 3.0 billion tons of CO2 emissions, for US it is 5 billon tons, for China 10 billion tons and the Rest of the World 16.0 billion tons. What this tells us is that a lot will depend on not just China, but India and other countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia in the developing world for how much CO2 emissions can be reduced to tackle climate change and other environmental problems.  For that 16 billion tons in the rest of the world reduction will depend on renewable supply and technologies to do it, rapid growth of economies in India and other countries to generate the resources and technology initiatives to get a shift from coal. Meanwhile it is a choice between having electricity for homes in rural areas in India or not. This is where bright spots such as solar technology in India that are giving quantum leaps for renewable solar energy with new technology cutting cost in successive waves of development can play a part.  ...

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India reaches $400 billion in exports for 2021-2022. This is a significant increase from the pre covid export figure of $330 billion in 2018-2019 which slipped to $313 billion in 2019-2020. Frequent lockdowns marked the period of the pandemic.

India's industrial sectors play a large role, including cotton yarn and the apparel industry. With the global supply chains being restructured and shifted away from China, India is gaining a more significant role. Australian exports are up 94% and US exports up 47%. India is making an effort to become a key part of the new supply chain arrangements of US and Europe, along with Vietnam and Japan. As part of the supply chain India is increasing imports from other countries with imports reaching about $600 billion, up about one third in 2021-2022.

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The Quad meeting of the US, Australia, Japan and India took place in Hiroshima, as shown here. The leaders expressed their deep concern over the economic effects of the Ukraine war, including "food, fuel and energy security, critical supply chains. The meeting was to take place in Sydney, Australia, but was cancelled due to debt talks taking place between Biden and Republicans in the US Congress. The next Quad meeting is in India in 2024. Biden will meet pm Modi in the US June 22. PM Modi also meets Macron on Bastille Day in Paris on 14 July as a special guest of France.

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Mediators Pakistan, Turkey sought to separate Iranian nuclear issue to a second stage with a vague Iranian commitment to discuss the issue and future dragging of feet by Iran. The US DJT administration has made this the only issue that must be settled first before a settlement can be reached, and not by a repeat of the half hearted effort by the Obama administration that led to reconstituting Iran's nuclear effort a second time with US financial assistance. For a day on Saturday it appeared that mediators Pakistan and Turkey had accomplished for Iran just that, to the alarm of Republicans in general and in particular senior Senator Graham. Many sections of the media including the WSJ and the business community, see this as a repetition of the mistakes made by Obama and his administration. Not only did Obama not act to work with Republicans on a border policy- simply protecting himself from Republican attack by deportation policies. Obama continued the war in Afghanistan/Iraq for the same reason to protect his chances for reelection. He also used immigration policy to get the Hispanic vote in the closing months of the reelection year. Obama's other foreign policy failure was in believing Iran had been persuaded to give up nuclear weapons, and gave Iran the financial backing that could easily be shifted from economic to military uses and rebuild the nuclear program,  which he has handed to a future Republican adminstration. Obama also ignored how this would affect the economic wellbeing of the Iranian people with the kind of protests and suppression that has happened in 2026. Democrats and the media, some Republicans, are simply ignoring these errors and have never really faced up to the problems in the Middle East and asked the question why there are 5 decades of wars in the Middle East, and coups, strife, wars for the entire period since 1950. In this situation the US, China, India, EU, Brazil and other nations can learn from this experience and act to secure alternative sources of energy, speed up renewable energy transition, and rapidly end all dependence/intervention on a perpetually strife ridden Middle East, which much of the US and international media in a baffling way ignores or does not say outright. ...

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A former Defense Minister of Japan serving twice and senior member of parliament of the LDP, says Japan's arrangement in Asia with the US is for a team approach. This means if the US acts to defend Taiwan, Japan is likely to join the US. creating a wider war engulfing Asia. It is in this context that the G7 conference in Hiroshima, the nuclear war museum, and others, need to broaden the approach to give people everywhere in the US and Asia a chance to understand all narratives of all the countries involved. Including in this case China's as a country subject to invasion by colonial powers, so that all the narratives can be fully understood. There is a reason for this and that is that the 18th 19th and 20th centuries offer a poor example for prevention of nuclear war. China, Japan and India share a common connection to the two thousand years old Buddhist and Vedantic ideas no matter how bruised they were by colonial powers. They offer many openings for the Chinese, Japanese and Indian people in their common history of Buddhist thought and pathways, to find a common ground. ...

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The Oxford vaccine developed in partnership with Astra Zeneca aims to be the vaccine for the world. The partnership has said it will make 2 billion doses and will provide this without making a profit at about $3 for one dose. Serum Institute of India was the leading supplier of vaccines to the world before the pandemic. Now it is preparing to make 1 billion doses of the Oxford vaccine. Already Astra Zenca has setup agreements for manufacturing  in other countries, with about 24 manufacturing facilities in countries such as Brazil, Japan, and Australia. Arrangements are also made with Russia and Mexico. The Russian partner has capacity to make 1 billion doses of the vaccine. In May the U.S. agreed to buy 300 million doses for $1.6 billion and manufacturing facilities are already being setup in the U.S.  The U.S. and other governments are sharing the risks as Astra Zeneca is hiring other companies to build the manufacturing capacity and working with them to install the new machines and supply the vaccine ingredients. For this the U.S. has Operation Warp Speed a $10 billion vaccine initiative and its organization, including the military. ...

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International issues took on larger significance for the U.S. Federal Reserve in September 2015 as it looked at a small increase in interest rates. Schwartz points to the memories of the 1997 emerging market crisis and how fragile economies like Mexico were adversely impacted by rising rates in the U.S.. Mexico needed a large bank bailout and contagion spread to other countries. Kenneth Rogoff says the risks are real with declining commodity prices and falling currencies of emerging markets such as Brazil, Indonesia and Russia. Ripple effects would carry over to India and other countries. The sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy in the second half of 2015 was too recent for the Fed to take any sort of risk in September 2015.

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India under the leadership of prime minister Modi hosting the G20 meeting of world leaders may have for the world passed the test of the ages on November 16, 2023. On that day the G20 with China, India, (and Russia's Lavrov), and the US issued the statement saying-  "The use of threat of using nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today's era must not be of war." The words "Today's era must not be of war," were words Modi had stated repeatedly to the Russian president.  In dire situations that it can be conceived that small nuclear weapons with half the destructive capacity as Hiroshima bomb that could be put on a small missile could be used is a new threat. Hennigan in the NYT reports that as Ukrainian forces moved towards Kharkiv and other Russian held territory and were seen as a threat to Russian held Crimea, on October 23, 2023 the Russian minister of defense Sergei Shoigu, contacted the Defense ministers of US, Britain, France and Turkey about Ukrainian fighters it believed planning to launch a dirty bomb -a conventional explosive wrapped in radioactive material- on their own territory to frame Moscow. Hennigan in this NYT report says US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin and Jt. Chief of Staff General Mark Milley, held 3 phone calls in 4 days during this time around October 23, 2023, with their Russian counterparts. By November 16 Indian prime minister Modi and Chinese president Xi had their discussions with the Russian president to prevent accidental nuclear escalation. ...

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During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.

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The US president tells the King it was special that all members of Congress stood up for a standing ovation many times- something that in recent years rarely happens. The King "has shown his class" in the last 24 hours says BBC, it is now up to Starmer and the British government, DJT and the Americans to make it count. Notable DJT sharing that the King agreed with him that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. The King also talked about the NATO alliance and its role in keeping the peace for 80 years in the world. In the King's words-  "the international rules that have allowed us to trade and have kept power in balance for 80 years." Adding that the US should not go it alone- "The challenges we face are too great for any one nation to bear alone." However the King is only doing what his is role as monarch to present British interests, and it is important to recall that Britain's interests were once colonial interests around the world, that opposition to these colonial interests led to the Declaration of Independence by Jefferson and Washington in 1776. And caution in Washington's advice to America in Annual messages when it comes to these Empires. Right after 1945 when NATO was created- as it was throughout its Empire in Asia  in 1750-1950- Britain opposed Russia and was the most vocal opponent of Soviet Russia in 1950's and saw NATO in this mission. Times have changed with the emergence of Russia after 1990, China in 1950 and again in 1990's, and America as a world power is best following Washington's advice not to get involved in or inherit the British anti-Russian attitude as it has interests in the Western hemisphere and around the world that require cooperation with other world powers such as Russia, China, India, and Germany to create a peaceful world  and not the kind we have today that puts Russia and China on the wrong side just for opposition, as no powers have any interest in drug and people trafficking in the western hemisphere form places like Mexico and Venezuela, or creating small wars in other parts of the world. A situation NATO as seen by Britain in 1950 as Anti-Russian creates for the US- Lord Hastings Ismay first Secretary General of NATO set British goal for NATO (not the US interests or consistent with George Washington's advice to distance from) in 1949 as "Keep the Russian Out, the US Involved, and the Germans Down." ...

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Coalition Against Climate Disinformation at the COP30 Belem Brazil Summit. CAAD says about the state of disinformation-

"Big Carbon's spending and Big Tech's algorithms are preventing us from seeing and hearing one another online. Instead, we're exposed to one lie after another."

The frequent fires and floods all over the world which happen suddenly and quickly show the effects and costs of climate change are real. Actions need to be taken on climate change even as the cost of living crisis and struggles of people in China,India and Africa and in the US and EU have to be considered for access to electricity and for cost of living concerns. Fossil only provides a short term transition to a long term plan for the future based on renewable energy, and the fight for climate change action to be renewed by EU, China, Brazil and India as the US sorts out its own problems with the transition.

 

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A company making table tennis tables in Uttar Pradesh, India, gains access to the US market as supply chain reorganization takes place.

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The US and Saudi Arabia are working on a partnership in which the Saudi Public Investment Fund will invest $15 billion to secure mining stakes for metals such as cobalt needed in electric car batteries. The US would buy the supplies from the Saudi owned companies. US is a copartner with India on a new economic corridor infrastructure project that will connect India with the European Union and the US through Saudi Arabia. Saudis will invest $20 billion said MBS, Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia, at the meeting of the G20 in New Delhi alongside Modi, Biden, Scholz, Macron and the heads of the EU. This is a major new project for which the seeds are being put in for future generations.

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India now leads developing countries with one billion digital payments a month. The stage is set now one billion digital payments a day. The digital payments have moved rapidly compared to the slow progress before 2011. The spread of internet, digital infrastructure, the Modi government digital projects including bank accounts for all citizens, demonetisation accelerating digital progress, GST, and the joint efforts of the government, the central bank, and the private sector have helped accomplish this shift to digital transactions. 

What is remarkable about this is also that India developed its own system without copying the U.S. or China digital payments, avoiding the defects of the other existing systems.

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In a first Vietjet Air will connect Hyderabad, India to Da Nang, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam by November 2022. Direct flights will also be set up from Ahmedabad and Bengaluru to Vietnam.

This will build the connectivity for business and tourism as the new supply chain is set up by the US and EU in Asia with Vietnam and India.

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In this report in TOI, Vijay Gokhale, former foreign secretary, points out the big shift taking place in how Germany like the US is paying attention to its mistake of overconcentrating its supply base and investments in one country, China. This type of overinvestment in one country does not make sense for a country for its supply chain, until one accepts that China succeeded to a great extent in building next generation infrastructure, logistics, and ease of manufacturing in China. India is only now learning this lesson- and Modi's experience in Gujarat stemming from studying China's evolution as an industrial nation. Lessons that are now being applied all over India to do, to build the kind of next generation infrastructure and logistics that would make it attractive to make in India and invest in India for Germany and the US. Gokhale describes the intense discussions that are taking place in the inner circles of all three parties, Merkel's CDU out of power questioning Merkel's policies of building so much concentration of business in China, the SPD questioning why it went along, and the Greens knowing that India is their natural partner and the one partner that thinks and acts most like the Greens Baerbock and Habeck. Baerbock is critical of the sale of a stake in Hamburg port to China. No other German leader is like Baerbock, who feels really at home in India in a way that few German leaders have during her recent visit. There is so much change in the Biden administration and in the three major parties thinking about China and how the future of the western nations rests squarely on India's shoulders and its young aspiring population of 1.2 billion, that even India under Modi's leadership for technological change and infrastructure has not kept pace with these changes. This is why Gokhale calls it tectonic. ...

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The U.S. Defense Secretary Esper says the U.S. is determined to keep the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean as open seas for freedom of navigation for all nations, rejecting all of China's claims to the South China sea. Esper says China has pushed regional allies out of as much as $2.6 trillion in offshore oil and gas revenues. 

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The deep deterioration in U.S. China relations as the U.S. sees itself in a disadvantage in trade with China and the Trump administration imposes tariffs, calls for changing existing supply chains and trade to safeguard U.S. interests. The lack of transparency from China about the coronavirus and the underreporting that led to the U.S. and Europe not taking the threat seriously enough or taking defensive steps is also seen as a part of the deeper problem as the U.S. and Europe bear the brunt of the coronavirus in terms of deaths and cases.  This presents a deeper problem than the trade issue by itself as the U.S. had a trade issue with Japan which was later resolved. The way the Trump administration sees itself as the only protector of U.S. interests in trade, security and international cooperation creates a new level of tensions. Other countries such as Australia, India, Japan, and countries in South East Asia are seen as having similar concerns as supply chains are being remade to reflect the new trading conditions and economic structures. ...

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Prakash and Ghosh in the Hindusthan Times remind readers that even though India has ambitious plans for renewable energy much remains to be done in shifting to clean coal technologies. An estimated 80% of India's coal plants use obsolete technologies, making this an obvious area for improvement. India plans to make solar the source of 100GW of 175GW it plans to generate in renewable energy by 2022. Yet it must not be forgotten that coal is a dominant source for the foreseeable future and shifting to clean coal technologies is an area that should get top priority from the government. Today India is the third largest in terms of carbon emissions after the U.S and China.

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As US through USAID pulls back India can and should step forward with aid to Norman Borlaug Institute that created India's Green Revolution. During the Kennedy-Johnson period in the 1960's US agricultural technologies assistance and Norman Borlaug helped engineer the Green Revolution through higher productivity in agriculture. Norman Borlaug developed many high yield, disease resistant varieties at his Institute which were adopted in India. In the period of the 1950's and 1960's there was still famine in India. The last famine in India was in 1966 in Bihar when drought led to 45% drop in agricultural production, and in China in 1960. The American contribution to Indian agriculture is huge and the scale of the impact has never been fully grasped, forgotten 60 years later. Shown in this report by Harish Damodaran, is MS Swaminathan of India and Norman Borlaug in the wheat fields of India. The Norman Borlaug Institute is based in Mexico and will need funding. India's contribution is only $0.8 million. Norman Borlaug Institute head Bram Govaerts says- "We are looking for support from countries such as India that have interests in CIMMYT continuing to empower farmers through science and innovation and breeding varieties today for tomorrow’s climate.”   ...

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Why the Straits of Hormuz are a critical path in the seas near Iran and Saudi Arabia through which much of the world's oil supplies flow. With the U.S. gaining oil sufficiency the straits of Hormuz oil supply lanes in the seas are critical to countries such as China, Japan and India which lack enough internal supplies of oil. Japan's prime minister mediated between the U.S. and Iran to keep the oil supplies lanes open and free of the conflicts and rivalry that have taken place in the region. After initially saying Iran was responsible for some tankers that caught fire, president Trump reversed himself saying that it was unintentional. The U.S. maintains oil sanctions on Iran but is careful not to worsen tensions further, and Iran suffering from the sanctions pursues a policy of trying to wait out the U.S. sanctions.