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New models introduced by Chrysler, Ford and GM, and the revitalization of the U.S. auto industry in 2011-2013.

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Northwestern University's Robert Gordon sees growth in the US economy dropping from 1.93 %- that it achieved in the period 1972-2007- to 1.5% from 2007 to 2027. At that rate of growth GDP per capita would increase by 35% in the next twenty years, compared to the 62% increase in the previous period. He says better educated workers would be needed to increase the growth rate. And he discounts the impact of the internet revolution as it has no magic quality, and he describes the present transformation technologically as a mere shift to smaller devices that is not changing productivity. He does not see another technological revolution like the internet boom. The coming retirement of baby boomers increases the number of retired people that wage earners would have to support, and there is no evidence of education levels increasing for the remaining workers. What this means is that it will be more difficult to fix large problems from carbon emission, energy to infrastructure improvement. Gordon arrived at these numbers by combining research on educational attainment, technological change, and workforce demographics for the USA, and running this data through models. Gordon has examined data going back to 1891 for the USA. This shows that the next twenty years will be the slowest growth in the nation's history, since George Washington assumed the Presidency....

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IBM's researchers predict five developments in new technology in the next five years to 2016- precise language translation, precise voice recognition, storing of biometric information to replace passwords, conversion of energy from walking or water moving through pipes to power small devices, search engines and software that gives people the information they want. IBM has invested $15 billion in analytics companies and other fields in the last 5-7 years to accomplish some of these tasks. Bernie Meyerson, vice president of innovation at IBM, and a scientist in advanced microprocessor design and computer systems, issued the list. He says predicting this requires a deep knowledge of what happened before in the last five decades of technological advances. A novel application is conversion of the approximately 65 watts of energy generated from walking to power devices such as a phone. Precise and ubiquitous language translation also means ease of communication and a whole range of benefits in increasing communication between people in different parts of the world....

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Chancellor Merkel meets President Trump in a key summit in March 2017. The two leaders have different styles, one flamboyant the other reserved. Chancellor Merkel tells the German media "it is better to talk with each other than about each other." Trump called Merkel's refugee policy "catastrophic," Merkel has said that the Geneva convention requires countries to do this on humanitarian grounds. On trade German's Economy minister Brigitte Zypries says Germany would file a suit on any hike in import duties at the World Trade Organization, that WTO rules restrict import taxes to 2.5% on autos. Germany's BMW plant in the U.S. exports more autos than GM and Ford put together, and Merkel is likely to emphasize large German investment in the U.S.. The heads of BMW and Siemens and other industry executives are accompanying Merkel to the U.S. as trade will be a key topic.

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How their strains in the the the Toyota manufacturing system and how Toyota's quality is not what it once was. Its image as a environment conscious company is also suffereing with its attempt to stall new fuel economy legislation in Congress like th Big Three American companies. And new hybrid engines are being introduced in joint development between Mercedes, BMW and GM so the novelty of Toyota hybrid may just wear out. And competitors from Germany and the US are now working harder to reduce Toyota's advantage by producing quality cars. As styling design and creative innovation has not been Toyota's strong point the Americans and the Germans have an opportunity to come up with something new. Even the incentives Toyota has to offer to sell its cars have now come up to what the Gm, Ford and Chrysler had to offer. According to CNW Marketing Research Toyota's dealer incentives have almost tripled in the last 3 years to an average of $3752 per vehicle. This is not a good sign. And we may have reached a point where the difference in quality between the GM Malibu and the Honda Accord from the Toyota Camry may really not be that much. No surprise that this is shaking up Toyota. The "Customer First Initiative" in response to quality issues and recalls is to have more power put into the hands of the chief engineer for any product launch to ensure quality problems are addressed early. And the dealers have EN2 (everything matters exponentially to address quality issues at the dealer level. And there aren't enough sensei or teachers of the Toyota Production System to meet the rapid growth of plants and the Global Production Centre was designed to meet this need by training teachers in an accelerated way in Japan. But there is a sense that a lot of the old Toyota magic may be fading just as Toyota reached te peak of its popularity sometime last year or 2005. Not because Toyota hasn't made the effort but because the whole dynamics of the car industry keep changing and Germans and the Americans are also pushing harder nowadays....

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Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England blamed the Brexit "fog of uncertainty" for the decline in the forecast for Britain's economic growth to 1.2% for 2019, worst in a decade. This is based on a "soft" Brexit. He said a no-deal Brexit would be a "economic shock" for Britain, that "we shouldn't be under any illusions about it."

Carney rejected the view of David Davis in The Times, that a 20% decline in the British pound would be good for Britain by "making  exports more competitive." Davis had called Carney's view "too doom-laden." A fall in the pound would be a necessary adjustment mechanism, Carney says, but it is "a hit to incomes, and not a step to prosperity." The pound declined by 17% from its 2015 peak after the referendum on Brexit.

 

 

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DJT considers De Santis for Defense to replace Hegseth. Lori Chavez-Deremer Republican Congresswoman from Oregon is considered to be pro-worker as Labor Secretary.

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Americans with no arrest record are more likely to have a college degree 40% to 10%, more likely to have a high school diploma 89% to 53%, according to one study. People with an arrest record are twice as likely to be in incomes below the poverty level. This matters for African Americans, Hispanics, and poor white people because the higher rate of arrests in these communities can lead to less opportunity for jobs, loans, education, and mortgage approval. It also matters in an information age with the FBI having over 77 million individuals in its database with reports of arrests and other action. A minor arrest record also stays on the record hindering future prospects.

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The Hindu data team looks at the Indian vaccination drive with graphs by state and progress by dates. During the first 10 days of June the vaccination drive has been stepped up. It is now over 3 million a day and at this rate should reach 400 million vaccinated by the end of July, 100 million below target. For the remainder of the year vaccine supplies have to be pushed up so that 8 million doses can be given each day. This would get India to where everyone in the country of 1.2 billion has been vaccinated by Dec 31, 2021. This would make it possible for India to then use its technology and large manufacturing capacity to help other nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America in 2022. This is the first time in history that India has taken on a challenge of this size and complexity. The vaccine strategy has changed to where the federal government is taking over the overall responsibility of coordinating the production of vaccines in the country and providing access to vaccines from other countries. Federal government is also taking on overall responsibility for distribution of vaccines and setting up the logistical effort. Vaccine supply is being opened up by opening India to multiple vaccines including Pfizer, Moderna, and other vaccines. Production of Covaxin is being stepped up. This strategy is designed to get India to somewhere closer to the 8 million doses a day needed and to ensure distribution and logistical efforts are in place. More resources are put into the effort. The speed of economic recovery also depends on the vaccination drive. Lessons were learned during the second wave in May 2021 and the government is better prepared for the hard work ahead. ...

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Prof. Barry Naughton at the University of California, San Diego, looks at how China has approached tech regulation in a way that has not yet happened in the US and Europe. It says tech regulation expands the role of the government, yet is one that has "a reasonable regulatory rationale," and can be easily supported on an individual basis. It says the US and Europe have recognized the issues that need to be tackled as tech companies were left with no checks or regulation after growing in insidious ways in the last ten years, but have so far failed to act on this knowledge. Some of the goals pursued in China made sense for China it says- technology self-reliance after delinking with the US, data security, de-risking the housing market, getting on a path to carbon neutrality. Other goals such as de-licensing tutoring companies and reregistering as non profit companies-  this was because of president Xi's concern that excessive costs and stress were discouraging Chinese families from having more children as China's population ages rapidly. This means the government plays a bigger role yet Naughton says when it coms to the goal of reducing inequality China has still to come up with ways to use tax policy and other ways to mitigate an extremely unequal distribution of wealth in China. Today this is limited to donations and giving by companies. In the US and Europe social democratic governments from Biden, Scholz and others are taking serious steps and have plans to address these problems of common prosperity with plans to help families and workers. ...

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President Sarkozy on what the euro means for France. Sarkozy told employees of the Airbus plant in Toulouse, France, that the euro was good for France. The single currency had protected France during the economic crisis. "Alone, France cannot resist outside pressures. France is going to borrow 180 billion euros in the financial markets this year to finance 35 years of accumulated budget deficits. Thanks to the euro we can borrow at 3% or a bit more; at the beginning of the 1990's we were paying 10%," he said. He added that "dismantling the euro zone would be like dismantling Europe... I will do everything I can to preserve the euro. He also emphasized that "we can't share the same currency and have different economic strategies," and called for macroeconomic and structural convergence in economic policies.

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What did Queen Elizabeth think of Mohandas Gandhi. Did they meet? The Deccan Herald shows the encounters between Elizabeth and Gandhi. And Modi's tweets about the the small hand woven cloth given by Gandhi to Elizabeth shown to him by Elizabeth, as a moment he treasures. This was given in November 1947. On November 12, 1947 Gandhi went to the All India Radio studios for the first time for a broadcast so the gift must have been sent to Britain for the princess of Wales's wedding. Mountbatten as the first governor general of India suggested to Gandhi that hand women cloth was the perfect gift. On it was woven Jai Hind. Not much is known about what was said by Elizabeth about Gandhi, because the monarchy had to be so discreet, yet the warmth and enthusiasm for Gandhi is unmistakably present.

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Interview with Bill Gates on the Gates foundation's educational activities and his thoughts on the budget cuts in education. The Gates Foundation launches an effort to improve education in selected school districts- Memphis, Tennessee, Hillsborough, Florida, Pittsburgh, and a charter consortium in California. The foundation has awarded $290 million for this effort to improve teacher effectiveness and set up new personnel systems. The idea is to raise the average level of quality in these schools through teacher effectiveness using a system designed by the foundation. Gates sees the need for more targeted investment in schools and close cooperation with teachers, principals, superintendents and administrative people. For this reason he sees the current budget atmosphere as counterproductive, as it will cut spending on education and act as a distraction from the hard work that needs to get done. On education spending Gates points out that one has to be careful as a society not to neglect the young as one uses resources to support the elderly. He points out that the only way to get this whole thing to work is for some increases in taxes and putting a lid on increases in medical costs, so that education in America does not get shortchanged. Recent polls show preference for some increase in taxes when it comes to supporting education spending....

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The U.S. vice presidential debate between Mike Spence and Tim Kaine showed Kaine focussing attention on Trump's crude attacks on women, praise for Russian president Putin, and opposition to the minimum wage. Spence's tone was measured and his focus was on deflecting the attacks on the crude language used by Trump in the campaign by saying Trump was "not a polished professional politician," like the others, and not responding to the Kaine references to Trump. Spence stuck to issues about immigration open borders, abortion, president Obama's inaction in Syria, the plight of workers in Scranton, Pennsylvania. He did not respond to repeated questions on Trump's failure to disclose his tax returns and his business failures leading to close to a billion dollars in losses and not having paid taxes for 18 years, as disclosed by the New York Times. Spence had to choose between hurting his own chances for reelection with the traditional Republican voters alienated by Trump and standing up for Trump's crude language against women and minorities. He deftly tried to the best using his skills as a radio broadcaster. Kaine who is usually more measured and thoughtful, had to choose between his traditional style of speaking and the role he was expected to play bringing to the public's attention the crude language and style of the Trump campaign and the instability reflected in it. He used his skills as a litigator to ask repeated questions on Trump, especially on the taxes, which leads to questions about funding infrastructure development and jobs without the wealthy paying their share of taxes. ...

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This editorial in the DW.com says the proposal to impose a 20% border tax on goods from countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit is bad for Germany and for the U.S.. It is a double edged sword because 1.6 million German jobs would be affected, according to Ifo Institute.  Yet also true is that German companies generate 672,000 jobs in the U.S., and about 600,000 of the 1.6 million jobs affected in Germany are by American companies in Germany, according to industry body BDI. Many of these American companies would be severely affected. So large is the bilateral trade relationship that no one would come out a winner, all would be big losers. Once the process starts it becomes tit for tat, as Germany and the European Union is faced with a dilemma on how to react, says this editorial. Which is why Merkel and Germany, are coming all out to get the trade talks on the right footing with the Trump administration. Economy minister Zypries warned about taking the case to the WTO if the Trump administration follows through on higher tariffs. Merkel has focussed on trade, and other issues have become secondary at this time. Before this meeting Germany's Gabriel met with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to set the right tone for German- U.S. relations. And the first meeting appears to have been tightly planned so that it goes off with a good start considering what is at stake. Even then this editorial reminds readers that the tone of the tariffs rhetoric from the Trump administration could affect perceptions over the next 4 years. ...

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As the Obama administration plans a large stimulus spending plan that may approach $1 trillion over several years, considering also the second phase of the $800 billion first phase stimulus, there is a concern that there may be wasteful spending and social costs of borrowing and spending by the government of such proportions. In economics jargon this hinges on whether there is amultiplier effect of spending, higher if its efficiently and well spent with less impact on private consumption and investment, and lower if the opposite were true. The assumption behind amultiplier of 1.0 for an additional bridge or road is that resources like manpower and capital that would be otherwise idle are deployed to produce something useful. An increase in one unit of government purchases increases by one unit the real gross domestic product. The government has effectively created the additional bridge or road without a cut in anybody's consumption or a businesses investment. The other contrasting approaches are to say there is a multiplier of zero, meaning there is a social cost in two ways. One the reduction of consumption and the crowding out of businesses investing in new products and technologies for example, and second in the inefficent use of resources if a government bureaucracy is put to work allocating money and the additional dangers of favoritism and corruption. To say that there is a multipier of 1.5 would mean that the government figures out a way to get private investment through conversion of plants for automotive parts say to make wind turbine blades by giving incentives, tax benefits and grants, spends on a dilapidated road and public transportation infrastructure that may provide benefits in increased growth capacity over future years. The limits of a government bureaucracy and inefficiency of government would in this case be addressed by transparency rules adopted and measures that track progress that are freely available to all citizens say on a website on the internet, and by bringing in fresh management talent from the private sector. There appears to be no generalization that can be applied for one multiplier for all projects. It may be that the multiplier will vary with the project. Some projects like the conversion of a factory making unneeded auto parts to a badly needed wind energy part, to change the dynamics of energy market pricing, to meet energy needs and cut emissions, may end up having a multiplier much above 1.0. A redundant or less needed bridge has a lower multiplier than a bridge rebuilt before it leads to breakdown. And also the complication that too large a movement in one direction say of stimulus spending, might result in a shift of the curve towards a smaller multiplier and diminishing returns, as the resources to track such a large expenditure and the talent to adminster are overextended. The social cost of private investment not making that investment in new technology, new product or improved product has to be figured into all this, both at the conceptual level as all costs and benefits may not be picked up in the analysis, and at the macro level keeping in mind that the animal spirits, as they were once described, may just not be there to absorb the huge outlays which a government can make. These do not come without an opportunity cost and borrowing costs. All this leads one to to conclude that spending has to be carefully evaluated and projects assessed on a case by case basis for costs and benefits. The spending has to be balanced to provide just as many incentives for private investment to invest in new products and technologies. One way the Obama team is attempting to address this is to include a $300 billion tax cut for businesses and individuals. The business tax cuts are aimed at helping small business with losses, and for future investments and making hires and forgoing layoffs. The other part relates to careful evaluation of spending projects and transparency so the people can see if they are effective. See the link to this....

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A touching story about a soldier who was once part of the Lost Battalion in World War II in the Vosges French Alps. Ford Callis is determined to recover at Vanderbilt Medical Center in Nashville from a fall at home. His only thought is how he can get back to care for his demented 94 year old wife. A physician who takes care of Callis describes the thoughts of doctors and staff at Vanderbilt Medical Center that day as they reflected on the meaning of marraige in a deeper spiritual sense.

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Fox News leads in total viewers in 2015 with an average of 1.8 million viewers in prime time. It also leads in the 25-54 year demographic. By comparison CNN had average of 490,000 viewers, MSNBC had average of 352,000 viewers. A major problem for cable news channels is an aging demographic. The median age for most channels is over 60 years, for CNN 61, for MSNBC 63 and Fox News even older at 67 years of age. In the the crucial 25-54 year old demographic FOx News does poorly with 207,000 total day viewers, CNN does badly with 149,000 and MSNBC at 89,000, posing some serious questions for all the cable news channels in the U.S. Among news shows "O'Reilly Factor" with 2.8 million viewers was first, followed by "The Kelly File" by Megyn Kelly. News stories about Pope Francis, terrorism in France and in the U.S., provided added momentum to news channels in 2015.

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Krugman tell Obama, he will be facing his own personal 1937, if he doesn't get ready another stimulus plan. THe job numbers for June with job losses of 467,000, he says, are a sign of continuting economic weakness. The chaiewoman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Christina Romer, recently published an article on the lessons of 1937. Krugman points to earnings decline in the Labor Dept numbers and points to this as signs of possible deflation. He says the centrist Democrats did the wrong thing when they reduced the portion of the stimulus that went to help local and state governments as the local and state governments face the prospect of making harsh cuts that would only hurt the most vulnerable sections of society. And the cuts in the state and local government spending would undermine the effects of the stimulus spending at the federal level. He sees the Obama jobs program as just not upto the task. With 6.5 million jobs lost since the recession began he says and the 100,000 additionaljobs needed each month just to keep up with growing population, the joblosses hole he sees is around 8.5 million. And the Obama administration's goal of three and a half million jobs by the end of 2010 just does'nt prevent the bad scenario that is unfolding....

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 President Trump says China is backing off in negotiations to address U.S. demands for a fair relationship on trade. He says the U.S. will increase tariffs from 10% imposed in September 2018 to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods starting May 10, 2019. China has put tariffs of 10% on $60 billion of American goods exported to China responding to the American tariffs in last September.  The U.S. says since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 with the approval of president Clinton it has unfairly benefited in trade with the U.S., leading to closure of factories and loss of jobs in the U.S. with state subsidized Chinese exports to the U.S. contrary to the spirit of the WTO and its rules. China has made promises to correct this and not kept them says the U.S. side in negotiations led by Robert Lighthizer. The tariffs moves are a tactic of president Trump to get China to relent and make fundamental changes in the way it exports to the U.S.  So far the Chinese response has been tit for tat. But this can change. As this report points out what is already known that China benefits far more and exports far more to the U.S. than the U.S. does to China. The $60 billion of American goods exports on which China placed tariffs represent two fifths of China's imports from U.S. With smaller exports from the U.S. to China, China has not much leverage in trade negotiations in this kind of tit for tat retaliation. It hurts China's exporters and economy much more than it does U.S. consumers. The increase in prices for U.S. consumers are also not expected to be significant, according to this report in the NYT, if China increase tariffs further. Aware of this and China's belief that past administrations have not responded is a guide to what the Trump administration can or will do, has convinced president Trump that there is no other way to get a fair trading relationship that respects U.S. interests, its jobs and workers. As Robert Lighthizer who leads the U.S. negotiating team faced this type of response from the Japanese when he negotiated with them (shoving off U.S. demands to reduce Japan's trade surplus in the eighties before accepting them), the U.S. thinks this strategy will work again. In any case it sees no alternatives to achieve its goal of a fair and balanced trading relationship. The U.S. international trade deficit in goods was up to $891 billion in February 2019 even after the tariffs on Chinese goods in September, showing that it will take a lot more to turn this as well as other trading relationships around.   ...

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Europe has few options on Greenland beyond a statement that "Greenland belongs to its people" knowing Denmark was a colonial power, says Le Monde. Peary  of US Navy discovered northern Greenland and claimed it for the US in 1880's, US offered to buy it in 1867 with Alaska Purchase. And under several administrations including Harry Truman in 1946. As the US commanders in chief in 1946 it is "completely useless for Denmark," vital for the US and security on the eastern seaboard of the US.  Denmark has done little for Greenland or the Inuit population of Greenland, in health, education and transportation.

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Germany leads in balcony solar installation- 1 million installed in 2023-2025 ($200 to $1200 solar modules installed on baconies. The boom is the largest in Europe for solar balcony installations. Japan is sending a delegation to learn from Germany. Renewables overtook coal for first time worldwide. In Germany the cost of this electricity from soalr balcony installs is half that of electricity from the grid. Berlin University Applied Sciences says it pays for itself in 4-7 years, after that the electricity has no cost. Solar modules life is 30 years, batteries life is 7-10 years. With 4 modules about half the needs for electricity for a household can be met.

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NYT Guest essay on Germany in 2026 with 6 state elections coming up, by Anna Sauerbrey, Editor of Die Zeit German Weekly. German leader Merz is on a 2 day visit to the US and will go over topics- Merz's visit to China, US trade policy after US Supreme Court decision, the war with Iran and German cooperation without being directly involved. Sauerbray looks at the situation in Germany with AfD expected to win in one of the states to form a government, the decline of the SDP and the role CDU now plays in Germany. The shift in mood to tight control over migrant entry in Europe.

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After 3 by-elections in Toronto and Montreal Carney likely to have slim majority in Canadian parliament with 173 seats. The Liberals party has a 10-15% lead over the next party the Conservatives. Under Justin Trudeau Liberals had fallen behind the Conservative party in polling, only to be revived by Mark Carney of the Central Bank of England who sidelined some of the more controversial parts of Trudeau policies and gaining a big win in the recent elections. Carney has tried to find a way to keep Canada independent of US policy and able to chart its own path in the face of US tariffs and trade policy.