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Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

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Precautions taken by athletes at the Paris Olympics. The Beijing and Tokyo Olympics had Covid protocols and this is almost forgotten in Paris in 2024. Some teams are taking precautions like the Netherlands hockey team in Paris, not wanting to shake hands.

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US trade with Germany now exceeds China's trade with Germany. With the change in supply chains, slower German economy leading to lower imports and a slowing Chinese economy, this is likely to lead to US and Germany having increasing trade relations and two way trade from now on.

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Following the defeat of chancellor Merkel's CDU party in the 2016 Berlin state election, getting just 17.6% of the vote, chancellor Merkel looked reflective and a bit emotional about the result. She urged Germans to understand that this decision on refugees will benefit Germany in the long run. She said she would work to regain the people's trust. Looking back she said-"If I could, I would turn back time by many, many years to better prepare myself and the whole German government for the situation that reached us unprepared in late summer 2015." She says the decision was "absolutely right" to admit the refugees from war torn Syria, but accepted that "it led to a time when we did not have enough control over the situation." Both the CDU and the SPD, the main parties, lost about 6-7 percentage points each in votes cast. Gainers were the Free Democratic Party with 6.7% of the vote, who gained votes from the CDU. For the SPD votes were lost to the Greens and the left party Die Linke each party winning over 15% of votes.  Both the CDU and the SPD had candidates who did not attract voter interest. A popular former Mayor of Berlin from the SPD did not run in this election. The anti-immigrant AfD party gained  about 14% of votes.  ...

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ECP acquisition of Calpine  in 2017 for $5.6 billion and sale to Constellation for profit of $25 billion. In 2017 the market seeing the shift to renewable energy missed that it would take 20-30 years to make the transition and in the meantime natural gas had a big role to play as a low cost less polluting fuel than coal. ECP in 2017 saw good cash flow and an opportunity to improve it with some changes. Blackstone's $16 billion made on buying Hilton Hotels is the second best deal ever for such a sale, buying of private companies and making improvements to sell them at a profit.

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Reporters in this report from the Brussels Bureau chief and the White House reporter, also include bureau reporters from Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America. They all say that Kamala Harris has a firm grip on international affairs. Harris goes beyond this in 2024- a unique and special understanding of the role of women in the renewal of Western and Asian societies. Society does best when women have a large role and make significant contributions is lost on Europeans and Americans yet a core belief in Asia and in India, where it is is seen as part of the reason for collapse of Asian civilizations to Europeans in the 18th and 19th century. From Europe Chancellor Scholz of Germany says of Harris whom he knows from her attending 3 consecutive Munich Security Conferences as Biden's representative. “She is a competent and experienced politician who knows exactly what she is doing and has a very clear idea of her country’s role, of developments in the world, and of the challenges we face." France's Macron has spent hours with Harris on her 5 day visit to France to soothe French feelings as reassure them following the US deal with Australia for nuclear submarines that excluded the French. During this trip she spent time at the Pasteur Institute where her mother Shyamala Gopalan once worked. From Mexico and South Korea one has another side of Harris where she has used official trips to hold discussions with women's groups to take notes and ask questions to understand women's issues around the world. This makes her exceptional as a choice for women in 2024, not just for reproductive rights but for a person who will listen with profound interest to what they say and relate to them. There is a saying in India that prime minister Modi also cites which says society does well only when it gives women the best place to make their own unique contribution. Lost on Europeans and Americans is this idea that Asians and particularly in India, see the failure to do this as part of the collapse of Asian civilizations to European advance in the 18th and 19th century. From Seoul, South Korea-"I was most impressed when she said that a society that helps its women fulfill their dreams and pursue their professional careers without discrimination is an advanced society,” said Baik Hyun Wook, head of the Korean Medical Women’s Association. ...

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California governor Newsom faces a recall election in 2021. Only 3 governors in the US have faced recall elections, says the NYT. Newsom faces criticism for his handling of the pandemic, homelessness in California, and other issues. It is also a sign of the rural-urban divide and polarization in the US as Newsom is running his campaign as one against former president Trump.

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Because technology spending has been more disciplined and focused on productivity and efficiency gains, the investment has been lower but more effective than in the 3 years leading to the last recession in 2001. At that time it was increasing 12.9% a year leading into the recesson and faced sharp cutbacks leading to a drop of 11% over the next 2 years 2001-2003. By contrast this time the tech spending went up by about 2.8% a year in the last 3 years, according to Gartner, and has delivered solid results at places like American Airlines. Technology spending is likely to hold up and continue moderate increase this year and next as the US enters a recession. At American a fuel efficiency drive starting 2005 including software to come up with best routes, flight paths and baggage loading has saved 96 million gallons a year. Note that spending on computer hardware and software is about half of all capital spending by business.

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Alexander Kudascheff of the DW.com says in this editorial opinion that the secular republic of Kemal Ataturk is about to become an Islamic autocracy. Kudascheff cites a number of reasons why the failed coup seems partly improbable such as it being led by the Air Force and Erdogan being able to fly back to Istanbul, not cutting communications,  and the intelligence agencies not having earlier knowledge about it. The overreaction to what is seen as a coup that was put down so quickly raises questions about the coup itself, says DW.com. It points out that Turkey now being admitted to the European Union now seems less probable than ever. The 3 month emergency is also seen with much skepticism. The coup and Erdogan's overeaction are a big negative event for Turkey-Eu relations.

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The end of an era as PSG beat Barcelona in their home stadium 4-1. Mbappe scores a hat-trick and the picture of Spanish player Pique hanging onto Mbappe's shirt during the game becomes one of the defining moments. Barcelona is no longer the team it once was with Messi almost out of the Spanish side.

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Issues about how many more jobs are supported by Apple beyond the 47,000 employees in the U.S. Estimates of job creation in China and overseas through supplier networks for iPads, iPhones and other products are as high as 700,000. Apple says it has "created or supported" 514,000 jobs in the U.S. Experts say it is hard to say how many jobs are supported. Of the jobs Apple counted in this number, the consulting group doing the estimate included 257,000 jobs at companies such as Corning that makes the glass for the iPhone, UPS, and a Samsung plant in Texas. The number was generated using a formula of the federal government's Bureau of Economic Analysis and how much money Apple spent on goods and services in the U.S. An additional 210,000 jobs were generated by companies making apps for Apple devices. The consulting company estimated that 45% of the 466,000 app related jobs in the U.S. -using the estimate of such jobs from TechNet- were for Apple apps. Apple released these figures on its website as criticism from the industry and outside mounts about whether Apple is doing enough for jobs in the U.S. Intel's Andy Grove is one of the industry executives who has pointed out that there is much scaling up at home that U.S. companies need to do....

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As Lyrarc would say a new culture is taking hold in America. Call it centrism or popularist, rejection of neoliberal whatever that term means, or any other term, it is basically about following good common sense, one's observation of real life and what is working or not working for ordinary Americans. Republicans and Democrats are shifting to policies that worked under Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, and to views expressed by John F. Kennedy for a fair society that respects the work and dignity and quality of life of all Americans of every class and level of education. And oppose business monopolies, oppose efforts to restrict workers rights. There is a growing sense in both parties that the policies of Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama have not worked for ordinary people in America. These are seen as wasted three decades that plunged America into foreign wars, let manufacturing decline, reduced standard of living, let its infrastructure deteriorate. This is why president Biden has achieved remarkable success in putting together legislation with support from key Republicans including McConnell for chips, science, infrastructure and other investment spending. Leonhardt is hardly alone in seeing that this is the path America will take in the coming decades. What is significant now is that the culture and mental framework itself is being transformed. ...

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Hillary Clinton narrowly loses the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in March 2016, as the Sanders campaign focusses on Clinton's support for trade agreements that hurt American workers and lead to loss of manufacturing jobs. About three fifths of voters in the Michigan primary considered this a major issue. Many less educated younger workers see their job prospects diminish and wages drop with free trade that hurts American manufacturing jobs. Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement with Mexico, and as a member of the Obama administration Clinton supported the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, later opposing TPP when she left the cabinet. Sentiment against trade that hurts manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. This was also a major issue benefitting the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who won in Canada's industrial Ontario province which has suffered hollowing out and loss of manufacturing jobs under the Conservative Harper administration. In the U.S. the issue goes back to the Clinton Administration for two decades. New jobs created by Apple, Google, and other tech companies pale in comparison with the industrial jobs created in another era that benefitted working class families. This issue and high unemployment or under employment, lower wages for working class families, was a major issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign. Widening wealth disparities, and lack of upward mobility, high tution and healthcare costs for ordinary families, dominated the campaign in the U.S....

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On Gandhi Jayanti remembering American president FDR's contribution to Hind Swaraj. FDR rejected Churchill's ideas of retaining the British Empire's colonies while fighting the German Nazis in the name of freedom. FDR said- " India should be made a commonwealth at once. After a certain number of years- 5 perhaps or 10- she should be able to choose whether she wants to remain in the Empire or have complete independence." 

FDR (US president Franklin Roosevelt) said -"I can't believe that we can fight a war against fascist slavery, and at the same time not work to free people all over the world from a backward colonial policy."

 

 

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The Dow Jones Average stock index drops by 800 points on August 14, 2019 with the ratcheting up of tensions in Hong Kong over autonomy protests, and the ongoing trade U.S. China trade dispute with more tariffs in September. Weak economic data from Europe exacerbated the situation. 

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Something profound is taking place in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Colonial attitudes of the British for centuries are making way for a new generationof Protestants and Catholics who are taking interest in the Irish language and the feeling of being both Irish and British, seeing all that was Irish from the early period of Christianity many centuries ago. Irish cosigns with English and classes/schools in Irish in Belfast ,Northern Ireland, as Unionist areas take up Irish along with the British identity. The Washington Post provides this wonderful look at this ancient language. In Irish Belfast is "Beal Fierste" meaning mouth of the Sandy Ford. Maidin mhaith is "good morning" and one can hear short audio practice of Irish in this report. The government is actively promoting Irish and buses show Irish as they make their way from East Belfast to West Belfast. A sense of equality is in the air and Irish is now spoken on the streets of Belfast. Protestant parents are signing up their children jn Irish language preschools and 35 primary schools are in Irish in Belfast. Such is the change happening to Ireland these days. ...

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Jodi Rudoren of the NYT in Jerusalem forthrightly answers questions from readers about Israel and prime minister Netanyahu.