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Contact tracing being setup using iphones and android phones with bluetooth technology by Apple and Google. The idea is being studied for adoption by the U.S. government. The problem is that this kind of contact tracing is not as effective as the kind used by South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore with information from cellphone carriers. Contact tracing apps would be written by developers for each country and chosen by Apple and Google one for each country. How it works- When a person comes down with symptoms he can upload the information about who he has been close to stored on the phone. This information would then be used to contact the person who was exposed to the person with symptoms but unaware of this. A message would tell that person he was exposed to someone who now has symptoms and to contact public health authorites and take effective steps. When the person with symptoms gets tested if he was positive that would also appear on a exposed person's phone without name or other information.  The normal contact tracing is time intensive requiring many phone calls and using data from cellphone carriers. This is done in Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. It is considered to be more effective. The approach of these Asian countries is more thorough and allows effective tracing and isolation, quarantining of persons having coronavirus or having exposure in countries with rampant coronavirus. The U.S. needs to move quickly to adopt the methods used in these Asian countries. The loss of hundreds of thousands of lives should be weighed against privacy concerns and clearly there should be a way to allow one time use of personal information for coronavirus, so that this kind of information is used only in public emergency situations. All three Asian countries are democracies. Putting health care workers at great risk including working pregnant doctors, as in the story in WSJ about a hospital in Maryland, should make it clear that everything including privacy concern should be placed in context, and use of personal information be permitted in a public emergency such as a contagious virus- with information protections removal for the period of the crisis. ...

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President Trump's failure to followup on his decision to shut down all flights to China on January 29 with speedy action on preparing for the coronavirus as suggested by some of his advisors is the subject of this article in the NYT.  There were two distractions one was the trade deal with China that was being negotiated, and then the impeachment trial in the U.S. Congress that was set in motion by Democrats. Another problem was the lack of good information about the extent of the virus spread in China and infected case numbers. As it turns out no one really knows the real scale of infections in China. If is was known that there were as many cases in China as there are in the U.S. today this would have resulted in shaking up any complacency in the Trump administration and in the states. Considering the experience of Europe and the U.S. it could be that China had the same number of infected cases as the U.S. does today for a population three times the size. China had a strict quarantine but it also did not realize what it was up against in the first weeks of the crisis in January. It appears now that China, Europe and the U.S. all lost some time from 2-4 weeks before realizing the severe consequences facing each region. This report says one of the vital pieces of information that was learned about infected people in China, was learned as late as the end of February by leaders of a government team looking at the coronavirus threat. It was that seemingly normal healthy people without symptoms but infected by the virus could spread the virus. This meant that this was very, very contagious. The lack of good information played a significant part, adding to the level of complacency in states such as New York and in the Trump administration. Politics such as the impeachment trial and political infighting added an unnecessary distraction. ...

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Xi Jinping's effort to shift the economy of China more towards serving the interests of Chinese who were left behind in the boom years includes a shift away from coal, away from real estate for speculation, and away from reliance on trade with the US and Europe as a driver for growth. This is proving to be difficult as the pandemic has increased demand for Chinese exports making trade a bigger driver for growth than before the pandemic. Introduction of a property tax to cut into real estate speculation has been scaled down to trials in 10 cities.  China did not put stimulus checks in the accounts of its people the way the US did which has led to Chinese domestic consumption not rebounding the way it has done in the US. Figures for consumer spending in China for September show an increase of 4.4% from the year earlier far below the pace of 8% set for 2019. The lack of social security and other safety nets in China makes people to save even more today. Chinese savings rate was 40% in 2019, today it is 45.2% for May 2021, according to one survey. Personal consumption makes up 38% of China's GDP in 2020, it was 39% in 2019. In the US it went up in 2021 June to 69% compared to 67% by the end of 2020. Infrastructure and construction deepened debt problems in China, and expanding exports created trade tensions. Both these problems have deepened with the pandemic. As this report says Chinese exports have gone gangbusters. Problems in production in Vietnam and Malaysia have added to export surge from China. China's trade surplus with the world is now at $535 billion in 2020, and surplus with US increased by 7% to $317 billion in 2020 from 2019.  Chinese government policy is now for "common prosperity" to reduce inequality and spread wealth and income more evenly for all the Chinese people. This is taking time and Chinese government policy is now set for the long run with these short run problems. ...

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Who will take up the difficult work in American childcare centers at $10-$15 per hour when retailers such as Amazon and Target are paying $20-$25 an hour during labor shortages in the US in 2021. As a result thousands of childcare centers in the US are closing and others are operating at a fourth or fifth part of their capacity. The result- less childcare and fewer women able to return to the workforce. Fewer men who can go back to work if caring for a child. This leads to further labor shortages. For a long time retailers like Amazon and Target were faulted for paying wages that made it difficult for workers to support their families. With the increase in inflation of about 5% in 2020-2021 it is even more difficult to pay for essential food and clothing. Another problem that America and Europe have lived through under different administrations in the last 2 decades is now getting even worse. Left to markets alone the whole system breaks down when one by one essential services such as healthcare, sanitation, childcare, transportation, cannot be provided. The US is facing an existential crisis not just in climate change but also in childcare, healthcare services. Both are caused by same source, a lack of emphasis on the right and essential national priorities. The causes go back to faulty capital allocation in America and Europe. $390 billion is allocated for childcare in Biden's plan in October, yet the Biden Families and Workers plan faces resistance. Gradually many of president Biden's programs for women including paid leave, child care and others are being shriveled into smaller and smaller amounts and the $3.9 trillion in spending for the workers and families plan is down now to $2 trillion.  The US and Europe face splits in society with one more urban and from the professional classes and the other more rural and in smaller urban communities and from the less educated classes each having different priorities. Only a clear resolution in the proper direction can bring relief for women, children and all segments of society, needed for a good society. ...

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Chief of TechMet a company in mineral resource development says that it will take years to dislodge China's dominance in rare metals mining and development for metals critical to technologies in car batteries, wind turbines, cellphones. This includes nickel and cobalt for car batteries.Last week president Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and authorizing use of the Defense Production Act to speed development of mines. The U.S. imports 80% of its rare earth elements from China, with further supply coming indirectly from the country. For 14 of 35 critical types of minerals the U.S. has no domestic production. Gallium for light emitting diodes in cell phones is one of these metals. Half of Barite a metal used in hydraulic fracturing for shale oil is imported from China. To get some idea of the neglect in U.S.policy in these area under three administrations, the U.S. in the 1980's was the largest producer of rare earth metals and the technology to process them. Today there is only one mine the Mountain Pass mine in California, and no processing plants. It takes about 10 years to develop a mine. Just as in health care products essential to tackle the virus the U.S has found its manufacturing and technology base left in woeful shape after manufacturing and mining were neglected in a failed policy. Under the guise of globalization corporations transferred essential manufacturing from the U.S. and Europe to China, without understanding the importance these products played in the life of countries, and governments neglected to help local manufacturers and mining companies. Governments play a critical role as China has done by providing loans and grants to develop the national industrial base. Tariffs and quotas are also used to promote local development of the manufacturing base and mining base. Another factor is that investors are more able to invest in these companies when the government take some of the risk with its help and active support. With the Trump executive order comes a new awareness in Canada, Australia, and European Union which are now taking active steps to nurture and develop the local resources. ...

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Under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong's constitution stated Hong Kong would pass legislation to stop national security crimes such as treason, secession and espionage. The Basic Law also had a provision to grant universal suffrage. It is important that the universal suffrage or democracy was never granted or made a priority by Hong Kong people during the boom years under the British, as a French commentator for La Croix aptly points out in FR24. He says he watched incredulous as Hong Kongers selfishly pursued money.  The Article 23 also provides for the National Peoples Congress to add laws for national security. The last time that Hong Kong people were faced with the National Peoples Congress passing such laws was in 2003 when half a million came out in protest. This was shelved at that time. It is now law today. Why now? More protests are expected and an election in July would bring more seats in the legislature for the pro-democracy parties, says the WSJ. Another factor is that Hong Kong at one time represented 16% of China's GDP in 1997, today it is down to about 3% in 2019. It is no longer that important to China, even while continual protests from Hong Kong detracted from other vital issues facing China as it shifts away from its trading relationship with the U.S. and as the U.S. imposes strict conditions on trade, investment and technology flows. Under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passed by U.S. Congress in 2019 an annual assessment has to be made by the State Department whether "one country, two systems" is operating. This is why Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State has made his comments that "no reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China." The new assessment would diminish confidence among foreign businesses in the city, in addition to ending its special trading status with the U.S. ...

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With better control over the coronavirus than U.S. and Europe, South Korea is not rushing to buy the vaccines developed by Pfizer or Moderna. It is waiting to see how the vaccine rollouts work in other countries before buying the vaccine. South Korea is also looking at getting better price from manufacturers after the rollouts in the U.S. and Europe. South Korea is moving cautiously and has said it wants to get 10 million doses through the Covax initiative the main global effort to provide broad access to vaccines. Another 20 million doses would be secured from private companies. This is in contrast to the approach in Japan where the government has signed deals for purchase of 290 million doses for 145 million people for its population of 126 million. The money allocated is $6.5 billion and the goal is to vaccinate everyone by first half of 2021.  If it works this would prepare Japan for the Tokyo Summer Olympics to open in July, after 1 year delay. South Korea has the freedom to do this and wait to see what vaccine works best with least long term effects because their are relatively fewer cases there. A total of 313 new daily cases on November 18, lower than daily cases in a single county in the state of Michigan in the U.S. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines use anew kind of gene based technology that has never been approved to prevent infectious diseases. Other competition is the vaccine from Oxford and Astra Zeneca which uses an existing technology that is used in existing vaccines modified for use in coronavirus. The Oxford vaccine and a vaccine from Johnson and Johnson are expected to have a lower price. Because life is functioning very close to normal South Korea is in the unusual position of saying that its people have no reason to be anxious for vaccine procurement, as indicated by its deputy director of Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Only three fifths of the population is the target for vaccination by fall of 2021. ...

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China's government is taking up stakes in private companies with large debt and needing financing. Private enterprises have less access to cheap bank loans and other types of financing than state owned firms, and are squeezed by China's efforts to reduce pollution and overcapacity. The tariffs war with the U.S. has also hurt the economy and taking stakes in private companies is way to ensure business stability for China. Its an effort to keep employment stable in the private sector that has 60% of the jobs. Zhejiang Great Southeast Company is a plastics packaging company with founder Huang selling his entire 29.5% stake in the company to state owned Zhuji Water Group Co for $168 million. He did this to repay holding company loans for which he pledged two thirds of Zhejiang Company shares. Beijing stepped in to ensure there is no sharp rise in unemployment. In the first 6 months of 2019 Beijing took 47 such stakes, according to Fitch Ratings, with 52 stakes taken for all of 2018.  The purchase of stakes includes state run companies and investment vehicles of local governments. Even this does not reflect the whole effort of China to ensure no sharp increase in unemployment. From October 2018 local authorities and state linked entities put together about $100 billion of "relief funds" very quickly, estimates from TF Securities. These funds are for passive investments, state owned enterprises normally take on a hands-on role in running the companies. Oxford Economics estimate is that China's private sector provides about 60% of all urban jobs in 2017, increasing from 36% in 2010. Researchers say China stepped in in this way after failing to get banks to lend more to the private sector. The tight supervision to reduce risk of supervisory agencies has made it harder for private companies to get loans. Shadow banking and trust loans was an early target, and stock market selloff hurt entrepreneurs who used shares as collateral for loans. ...

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Two divergent approaches to the coronavirus are shown in this report in the WSJ. One in Italy which relies on quarantine and lockdown and mandatory social distancing, and the other on keeping borders open and aggressively tracking down the infected using data and testing. In South Korea infections have stabilized at 8000, and in Italy the are rising at 15,000. The divergent approaches and the results vary with the people's history, culture and recent experience. The cultural difference in Asian societies with people willing to cooperate and work together with health authorites for the social stability and good of the country is different from the more individualistic nature of western societies. In addition Italy has a long period of foreign rule of Hapsburgs nd French that has created an attitude of working around authority, the tendency to being furbo which prime minister Conte referred to in a nationwide address.  South Korea and Taiwan also have experience with the SARS and MERS virus during which public health regulations were instituted and comprehensive databases setup that are now being used to combat the new health crisis by tracking down people with health needs. The precedents have taught people in South Korea and Taiwan of how serious this kind of crisis can become, which was absent in Italy in the early stages. Both South Korea and Italy are democracies. The difference being that one has experience with public health crises from experience with SARS, MERS, H1N1, and has developed policy tools, broadened public support and increased state powers in anticipation of such crises. In South Korea there were fines of $8300 for those not willing to be treated and the government aggressively tracked down people. Public support and awareness also helped in controlling the situation. Taiwan has done better than South Korea as covered in a separate article in the WSJ, and shown here, controlling the situation from the beginning including shutting down flights from China early because of its close proximity to China.  ...

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It took a week longer for each country to impose a lockdown. In China first Wuhan then the whole country went into lockdown and quarantine. The same process is repeated in Europe and in America as authorites see numbers of infections increasing rapidly without strict controls. First the Lombardy region in Italy around Milan, then the provinces in Northern Italy, followed by a complete lockdown in the country on March 10 as infection spread faster without lockdown and enforcement of lockdowns. Germany and Britain follow Spain and Italy on March 20. France followed Spain in the days after Italy's complete lockdown. Macron ordered the lockdown on March 16 with stringent enforcement. Infectious Disease specialists at Imperial College warned of "unintended consequences for the entire nation" if a lockdown of Britain did not take place. The goal is to limit the spread of infections from rapid to slow as public health systems and economic measures are ramped up in preparation for the crisis. Most countries were lacking the preparatory steps having lost time waiting to see what happens next or analyzing data in the vain hope the virus does not spread.  Bad economic results of lockdowns were initially a concern, but this concern became less important as the coronavirus spread rapidly in Europe. Decision makers in Europe decided that not acting forcefully would lead to equally or worse economic outcomes. Public health systems overwhelmed would diminish public confidence rapidly and lead to equally bad or much worse economic outcomes. The European Union executive body has supported state aid, stimulus action and border controls in this crisis. In America and in Europe the hope is that shoring up the safety net with massive aid to businesses and households would buy time to tackle and overcome the coronavirus through a combination of lockdowns, quarantines, contact tracing, large scale testing and medical technology measures. The examples of China, South Korea, Taiwan showed this pathway exists for phased control and reducing fatalities to zero. ...

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Vietnam's efforts to boost solar energy in 2018 by offering 9 cents per kilowatt hour to owners of solar farms is leading to unexpected surge in solar energy. Instead of the 850 MW of solar energy the production increased to 5 gigawatts by 2019. Investments had be done in 2 years for the offer by the state owned electricity company and electricity purchases would depend on daily needs. The huge increase has brightened the prospects for solar energy in this part of Asia.    Most of the solar energy comes from the southern part of Vietnam and the government is expanding the capacity of the power grid to handle the solar energy production. Vietnam is growing at 5-7% a year for two decades and power capacity is expected to double by 2030. The share of coal in the enrgy mix planned is 43%. The unexpected surge in solar energy production means the 10% fo solar energy in the energy mix was achieved ten years ahead of the schedule. This means fewer coal plants will be needed. In five years solar energy is expected to become cheaper to produce than energy from coal, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Coal plants are also meeting public resistance, and regulatory hurdles. Coal plants take ten years to become operation. Solar energy projects can be completed in 2 years. This means solar can take a much larger share of energy production in the future .  ...

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In an astonishing contrast to other European countries, including neighbors Norway, FInaland and Denmark, the Swedish government decided to not impose a lockdown, keeping bars, restaurants, hairdressers, gyms, primary and middle schools open. Secondary schools, museums were closed, sports gatherings, gatherings of more than 50 people were not allowed. Social distancing was not enforced, and entirely voluntary. Sweden now has 29000 cases according to Statista and its death rate of 358 per million population is higher than in the U.S. which is 267, and Denmark 93, Finland 53.  Critics such as Lena EInhorn, a virologist, say the Swedish government did not set up a broad testing program, and let a problem develop for elder care in nursing homes. She says a 14 day quarantine of household members of a person infected with the virus would have made a difference. Most action we take for granted was not taken in Sweden. Restaurants that were not required to close spread airborne transmission. Einhorn also says that the government officials have denied it but under their breaths they have acknowledged working on a herd immunity strategy. Denmark has opened schools with social distancing and other measures and reopened its economy. Sweden is in reverse with calls for stricter action and an ongoing debate. No reopening as there was no lockdown, yet considerable and nagging uncertainty. The speed of transmission of coronavirus is the biggest danger, as it can let the numbers grow very quickly if the wrong decisions are taken or something is left out. ...

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India is storing as much oil as it can at today's low oil prices of about $20-$30 per barrel in May 2020. With India asking the U.S. to store oil from U.S. shale producers at its strategic petroleum reserve storage facilities in the U.S. Already its existing storage facilities of 5.3 million tonnes (39 million barrels) are full, and the storage capacity will be more than doubled with an additional 6.5 million tonnes (48 million barrels) to be built quickly. About 8.5 million tonnes (62 million barrrels)  are in ships on oceans around the world. Demand is only 20% during the lockdown but is expected to reach levels of 2019 by June 2020. Only about 20% of oil consumption comes from existing storage.   That Indian oil capacity is 39 million barrels of storage shows how little was done over succeeding administrations without national aspirations for a growing country with hundreds of million of young people, when the oil storage capacity today of 39 million barrels compares with over 500 million barrels for Japan and for China. A huge Indian government aid package of $280 billion for the economy can be offset by gains in other areas such as low oil price oil storage, and gains in supply chain manufacturing, increasing the size of the domestic market for local manufacturers with incentives and loans, and new rules for stressing local manufacturing for a self-reliant economy. ...

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China faces risk of a surge inthe coronavirus in June 2021. The area in and around Guangzhou appears to be seriously affected. The city tested almost its entire population of 18.7 million between June 6 Sunday and June 8 Tuesday. This report shows pictures of a deserted Beijing airport, strict restrictions on foreign travel. The SinoPharm vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant in India and UK is unknown. The government is locking down entire neighborhoods rather than entire cities or provinces.  As the risks of the Delta variant and other new variants increases most of the population even in the US and Europe have either no dose or one dose. Researchers at the University of New South Wales in Australia show the Astra Zeneca vaccine effectiveness with one dose at only 30%, only after two weeks following the second dose does the vaccine effectiveness reach about 70%. The population of China and India are so large that much larger parts of the population remain unvaccinated. In China with 1.3 billion people and even if the figure of 800 million doses stated by the government is accepted- it could be an overestimate as the US has only managed 300 million doses with many vaccines- most of the population is unprotected. Vaccine skepticism is high in China making vaccination an uphill task. SinoPharmvaccine is not as effective as Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zeneca, or Covaxin vaccines, making the task even more of an uphill kind. ...

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The Indian prime minister talks in his radio program Mann Ki Baat (Talking our Mind) about Indian athletes at the Tokyo Olympics and overcoming any hesitancy for vaccines. He remembers athletes from the Olympics past- Milkha Singh India's fastest runner, who worked hard and emerged from the partition bloodshed as a survivor in 1947 to compete in the Rome Olympics in 1960. Milkha Singh was the first Indian male athlete to reach the finals of the Olympics when he barely missed the bronze medal by 0.1 seconds in the 400 metres race. He remembered for this years Tokyo Olympics hockey player Neha Goel, race walker Priyanka Goswami, javelin thrower Shivpal Singh, archers Deepika Kumari, Pravin Jadhav, badminton player Chirag Shetty. Pravin Jadhav is a laborer's son from Satara district in Maharashtra who is competing in archery. The prime minister talked about two people from Betul district, Madhya Pradesh, with vaccine fears from spread of disinformation. He pointed out that over 300 million people have been vaccinated and this includes his own 100 year old mother. He urged India to trust science and scientists. Sometimes, he said, people get a mild fever, that lasts only a few days. "Avoiding the vaccine can be very dangerous, you are not only putting yourself at risk but also  your family and the entire village." In the new phase of the vaccination drive vaccines are made available for free in all states and union territories. ...

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Some local governments in China are making vaccination mandatory. China is setting a goal of getting 64%  of the population fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. In European Union countries mandatory vaccination by country or region is now being put in place to fight new coronavirus variants that spread faster in the population. The reopening of economy, business and tourism is increasing the risk from variants in summer 2021. The mandatory vaccination is a way to increase the percentage of the population that is vaccinated. Getting younger people who lag behind to get vaccinated is important to protect the percentage of the elderly population that is still not vaccinated. There are risks also to the younger population as seen in previous waves of the pandemic. The initial hesitation to make health pass showing a person is vaccinated mandatory was because only a small fraction of the population was vaccinated in Europe. Now that over 50% are vaccinated in most EU countries and UK, that hesitation thinking that it is discriminatory to those people who did not have access to vaccines no longer exists. Ample vaccine supplies and the misinformation spread about vaccines are making action on health pass necessary to protect the overall population. National governments in France, Denmark, Austria, Greece, and local governments in Germany, Portugal and other EU countries such as Ireland, Italy, see the danger from coronavirus variants that spread quickly as too big to take any risks a second time. ...

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By dropping most coronavirus restrictions including masks, social distancing and size of gatherings, and opening night clubs, England is risking the same sudden rise in new cases from variants that hit the Netherlands last week. Analysis of what happened in the Netherlands shows nightclubs and bars as the origins of 40% of the new cases in the Netherlands. Prime minister Rutte of the Netherlands apologized for this kind of reopening after a big jump in cases in Netherlands.Seven day average in the UK is at 46,000 for the last week. With 40% of the UK population not fully vaccinated, the new variants can spread faster and mutate in the unvaccinated population.  There is a basic difference in priority- getting to work and doing essential shopping compared to going to nightclubs. The Dutch government shut its nightclubs after reopening them in June. At this point England is split in how to reopen. The Mayor of London says masks will be compulsory in all public transit in London. And 55% of the UK public in a recent survey from YouGov think reopening in this way is the wrong thing to do. Another poll by Ipsos shows 70% of people surveyed saying they wanted mask wearing to be compulsory indoors for another month. One bar club owner says that he thinks what they are doing is wrong. Some students think that this is a recipe for transmission to happen quickly. ...

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To understand the situation in Hong Kong and in China, it is necessary to know about the early years of the Cultural Revolution around 1966 to 1976  and the period of economic and cultural experimentation that followed its failure. This is the period in which China's leader Xi Jinping was growing up and went to University, a period during which his father XI Zhongxun was persecuted in party struggles about ideas driving the party. Ironically the Cultural Revolution was a period when China under Mao launched an effort to stamp out western and capitalist influence in China promoting efforts to go back to the countryside where most of the people lived, in sharp contrast to the opposite of attracting western technology and urbanization pursued today.   Xi Jinping's father as party leader in Guangdong province 1978-1980 after rehabilitation under premier Deng in the period of experimentation with economic models, never lost faith in the party's ideals and what it sought to achieve. China's rejuvenation after centuries of backwardness and the disaster of the opium wars that led to opening China to opium trade by Britain and the ceding of Hong Kong as a British colony, remained indelibly in the mind of the father and today in his son in the form of the "China Dream." The South China Morning Post gives useful insights by looking at the early years of Xi Jinping. ...

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China's huge trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow even after President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. China's total exports have risen by 15.6% from a year earlier, higher than the 14.5% increase year over year in September. Exports to India, Hong Kong, grew by more than 20% in October over a year earlier.  By Chinese figures China's trade surplus with the U.S. of $260 billion for 10 months of 2018 is up 15% from year earlier, ready to set another record. This does not tally with what the U.S. says it is, with the U.S. estimate of the trade gap at $375.2 billion, over $1 billion each and every day. Previous administrations of both Republican and Democratic parties put up with the trade surplus or did little. President Trump has taken this up as a big issue and imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in a series of actions. The combined U.S. and Chinese tariffs now cover 60% of their trade in goods after the latest round of tit for tat tariffs. Experts say there is front loading of Chinese exports which accounts for the sharp increase in exports to beat the date when tariffs go into effect. Yet the overall increase in China's exports, with an added impetus from a stronger dollar suggests that the trade gap with the U.S. is a problem that will fester for a while till the trends are reversed.  ...

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This article in the Economist magazine says the initial criteria for the euro currency were fudged to let southern European countries with weak finances into the euro region. The result was that Italy, Spain and Portugal were allowed in, followed later by Greece. This was a critical design defect for the euro currency. It says French president Mitterand accepted German unification and German president Kohl gave up the Deutsche Mark in exchange for the Euro, under the 1992 Maastricht Treaty that set up the euro currency. The other flaw was the lack of a bail out mechanism if governments needed help, the ECB not designed to tackle this, and the central banks of each country not capable of tackling this on their own. With the lack of devaluation option to address inflation, and drop in competitiveness of some countries, the mechanisms to address economic problems were not put in place- it says because political union was seen as happening earlier but never happened. The French are seen as more interested in pursuing closer economic integration, with Germany not as keen until budget discipline is established first. Germany also looks at immigration as a critical area in which agreement has to be reached. As a result the euro currency is likely to continue with some of its current problems, yet with improvements in many areas such as budget discipline and lessons learned from the eurozone crisis in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.   ...

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It is not clear why the British furlough scheme already cost about 35 million pounds when the German furlough scheme for 12 months cost is 9 million pounds. The British scheme set the amount at 80% of earnings up to 2500 pounds per month, higher than the German furlough scheme which started at 60% and went up to 70-80% if 50% of working hours were lost.  As a result of the cost difference of the two schemes Germany is able to extend its scheme to 24 months while the British scheme ends in October having cost more in a short period 35 million pounds than the 2 year German furlough scheme's cost of 18 million pounds. This means German workers are better protected than British workers. Schemes for furlough in Anglo-Saxon countries Britain and the U.S. have traditionally lagged behind ones in other countries in Europe with resulting job losses and hardships for workers. Could the schemes in Britain and the U.S. be better designed to get more done at similar cost as in Germany with joint worker, company and government cooperation? France is extending its furlough scheme to 24 months. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research says extending the British furlough scheme till July 2021 would cost 10 billion pounds and could pay for itself. A estimated loss of 2 million jobs in Britain from the ending of the furlough scheme in October 2020 maybe be too high a price to pay. ...

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Labour party leader Corbyn reflects on his years as leader, the 2019 election, his effort to get Britain to spend more money to fix social wrongs made worse through austerity programs of the last decade. He tells BBC's Laura Kuenssberg, that he was denounced in the election for advocating spending more money  than Britain could afford. He sees himself and Labor vindicated in its proposals for spending vast sums, to invest in the state, as this is what the Tories are now doing under Johnson. He sees Britain as ill-prepared for the coronavirus pandemic after ten years of austerity. The result of the Labour party election will be announced on April 4, a contest between Sir Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long Bailey, and Lisa Nandy. Mr. Corbyn is resigning after Labour's defeat in the 2019 election. He says the divisions over Brexit which led to a vote at Labour's conference to negotiate a new deal with EU and put it to another referendum, clearly did not win the election. Reflecting he says he did his best with an expanded level of membership for Labour party, and shifting the party to an interventionist economic policy that was anti-austerity investment led economy. He made his share of mistakes says Corbyn, as he was just human. And urged new Labour party leaders to spend time listening to people in all parts of the country, and recognize the strengths and good in the people.  ...

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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Iran Ceasefire shaky May 11 2026 with no willingness on the part of IRGC Iran (Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps) to send all nuclear materials out of the country. Past experience has shaken American confidence in IRGC Iran's willingness to give up nuclear weapons development. Under president Obama some nuclear materials were sent to Russia, some left inside Iran which were after an agreement used by IRGC Iran to develop weapons grade enriched uranium, putting the situation back to where America started before the agreement. This is behind the DJT Republican administration's effort to get all nuclear materials out of Iran. This has wasted another decade for Iran, diverting resources needed for improving standards of living and cost of living to the weapons programs. The result is internal protests that were widespread in Iran including the middle class, not just students. So that today Iranian people are divided on the issue whether Iran should against all prevailing Middle Eastern and World opinion go for a nuclear weapon. The situation of clandestine development in North Korea and Pakistan of nuclear weapons is not existent today as the US is monitoring it constantly. Israel sees these weapons programs in Iran as a threat to its existence close to its borders in Lebanon and Iraq, which makes it unlikely that clandestine development is possible for nuclear weapons development anywhere in the Middle East. The UAE has also shifted its stance in favor of the US, Saudis want assurances, and India, Pakistan Egypt are in different ways seeking a denuclearized Middle East. This means the American DJT administration is NOT ALONE on this issue as the media in the US and Europe are presenting. Germany's Wadephul and Merz are closer to US thinking on this issue than the media says. Macron and Starmer are at popularity of less than 20% in France and the UK and do not reflect the opinion in France and Britain, and in Europe on this issue. In this sense the US is doing this for a safer world, for China, India, Brazil and EU, all the nations in the poorest parts of the world in Africa, Asia. These poorest nations which are bearing the brunt of this obsession with nuclear weapons development by IRGC Iran in a Middle East torn by 5 decades of wars from Kabul to Damascus, Baghdad to Tehran, by IRGC Iran (Revolutionary Guard Corps), as these poor nations confront lack of oil and fertilizer supplies. It does not come at a good time for even the largest nations about 3 billion people in China, India and Indonesia, Egypt which are suffering from the effects of oil shortages and fertilizer shortages when possibly at most about 40 of 90 million people in Iran support weapons programs, all others in Iran seeking a way out for better standards of living and living at peace with neighbors and the world. In that peacetime Middle East the Palestinian people could find solutions like the Irish people with the goodwill of all neighbors. ...

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WSJ on how America's political establishment lied about Covid's real origins in a Lab in Wuhan, China, after some in the American scientific community ignored prudent warnings about possible accidental release, and sent the virus from the US lab to a lab in Wuhan that was not fully prepared to handle it. In reality the Biden administration erred when it did not conduct an open assessment of what had happened, because this would have earned and kept the people's trust instead of dividing the country into vaccine believers and vaccine unbelievers.  Sections of the virologist community in the US and in China that promoted such research against the advice of others in the scientific community could have accepted their error with humility. The people of Asia have made great advances in this century- some call it the Asian century- great advances in manufacturing and in science. Yet they are not so fragile, the people in the Buddha lands and the land of Gandhi are not not so fragile that they could not accept that what they had achieved was on the shoulders of what hundreds of European scientists and inventors had done over three centuries since 1700. And that there was much to learn. The Chinese people and government can look with great self-respect for what they had achieved in the last 100 years not to need the condescension of the virologist community.  In a sense this divided the US people's perceptions of China, with half of the country skeptical about the virologist community's explanations accepted by the Biden administration. This was not in any way good for China and the Chinese people. In fact one can say that by handling this with an open mind would have clearly built more trust in China-US relations, and that China- US relations reached the lowest during the end of the Biden administration point with the Balloons incident. And recovered afterwards to this point of mutual respect under a frank president with candor and respect. This vaccine blunder also created further culture wars conflicts around the US, to ones based on race, LGBTQ, and other less consequential matters than the deindustrialization and loss of America's manufacturing base and its best jobs in huge numbers under the watch of Bush and Obama administrations, and their followers in the Republican and Democratic parties. What happened is that the country was split on race, gender, immigration, and belief in Christian values. Issues such as nuclear non proliferation (Iran) presented in ways that adversely affect the US. by calling it something else. In all such issues honesty is the best policy, dealing in a straight forward manner wiht the public is the best course, for reasons that are timeless and well recognized. Failure to do so on the part of the Elites only creates distrust of official explanations by the people of America. ...