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DJT was asked if China's celebration of Victory Day with Russia recently in Tianjin had any message for the US. He said he did not see it that way, that US has good relations with China. In this context the Smithsonian Museum exhibit on military history of the US shows a real aspect of the World War II in loss of life- Russia 17 million dead, China 11 million dead, Germany 10 million dead, Poland 5 million dead, Japan 2.5 million dead, US 1 million dead, UK 800,000 dead. Russian and Chinese losses of 28 million dead are 15 times the losses of US and UK combined of 1.8 million dead. With the scale of losses of such magnitude Victory Day celebrations in Tianjin can be seen in the context of this shared history and major losses overcome as much of the world knows with US help. A sobering view is that the colonial powers Imperial Japanese Army, French and British policies caused famines in World War II leading to 6-7 million deaths in India, Indonesia and Vietnam which is 4 times the 1.7 million US and UK deaths. Views of China in the Context of the Ukraine War and Russia are very different in US than in France and Europe and are widening in differences in 2025. In the US as in this report in the WSJ China is seen as a trade partner and competitor with certain issues, many of China's university leaders and experts question the prospect of a long term alliance with Russia, and for DJT Russia is a nuclear power with which US seeks good relations and a political settlement of the Ukraine War. In France as shown in the article in Le Monde adjacent to this the European attitudes towards Russia throughout European history since 1700 of regional rivalry between France and Russia, Germany and Russia since 1900, Britain and Russia since 1700. FDR led the alliance with Russia against the Nazis and Imperial Japanese in the 1930's and 1940's. Herbert Hoover led the effort to bring relief supplies and aid to Russian in the period of the Civil War after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. With China America kept the government in China functioning as it retreated from the invasion by the Imperial Japanese Army in the 1930's and 1940's and the only hope with Gen. Joe Stilwell in China alongside Chinese leaders. ...

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The revival of NATO in 2022 as America "prepares extensively and carefully" to meet the challenge from Russia as it invades Ukraine. President Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Germany's Scholz and America's Biden form a partnership as the Europeans and Americans join together to defend the interests of Europe, America, Latin America, India and other Asia, Africa, the entire free world in a way that FDR and Truman, with Adenauer defended the free world after the Berlin Airlift in 1948. Biden tells Europe and America the days ahead will be hard but America and Europe and the allies in Japan, India and the rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa, are resolved to met this challenge.

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The title says this but Biden has not blown it by conducting discussions on the debt ceiling with Kevin McCarthy, Republican leader in the House of Representatives. Krugman presents MAGA Republicans as controlling the House. The situation is a bit more complicated than that as the Republican margin is only 222-213 with moderates who could move in Biden's direction if a default is impending. Previous articles in the NYT and WSJ have shown how the president has his own set of options including  simply ignoring the ceiling or citing a part of the Constitution of the US that gives the president the authority to conduct the business of the country in such a situation. Mr. Biden is taking the situation as calmly as possible, as the midterms have also given the president a situation where he sees the country on his side with Democrats needing only a few moderates in the Republican party to support him. Mr. McCarthy has his own reasons to support Biden as he supports president Biden in the task of backing up NATO and Ukraine. Having discussions with McCarthy keeps the country together at a time when Ukraine has a planned counter offensive to defend the country. Biden was able to achieve legislative achievements that are comparable to FDR and Lyndon Johnson because of his calm and patient approach. ...

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At a joint press conference with French, Romanian and Moldovan foreign ministers German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announces 695 million euros of aid to Moldova as it deals with refugees from Ukraine. Out of about 4.2 million refugees that fled Ukraine 2.4 million went to Poland, and 1.8 million refugees to Romania, Moldova and Hungary. Moldova is one of the poorest countries in the region and is struggling to cope with the refugee influx which is the highest per capita refugees. "We have your back," Baerbock told the Moldovan prime minister Natalia Gavrilita. It's just the "kick off point for a long term continuous support platform for Moldova," said Baerbock. Gavrilita formally signed an application for accession of Moldova to the European Union shortly after the Russian invasion.

Moldova a country with 2.7 million people is dealing with an influx of 400,000 refugees. About 100,000 have decided to stay.

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Bide meets British prime minister Starmer in Wasnhington as Britain is ready to approve use of its long range missile systems inside Russia. This comes as Russia is about to gain control of the Donetsk region. Republicans other than Mr. Trump and his supporters are for stronger support to Ukraine following US policy of opposing invasion to achieve military goals since 1900 against the Japanese in China and the Vietnam War was fought on the same basis in the 1960's considering the South Vietnamese state as an independent republic, just  invaded by the north, by North Vietnam, just as the US had done in the Korean War between North and South Korea. In the Vietnam War nationalism played apart with the Vietnamese nationalism prevailing by 1970. Russians see Kiev as the origin of the Russian State in the 9th century, and eastern region of Donetsk as Russian if western Ukraine seeks to join NATO and EU. Britain has opposed Russia since 1750 as it saw Russia as the threat to an Empire it was building in South Asia, in India that financially supported its Empire worldwide for 200 years till about 1950. Britain engaged in the Crimean War against Russia so that along with the French it could control Turkey and its Ottoman states in the Arab Middle East under the guise of trade. This effort was pushed back by Kemal Ataturk in the 1920's when he founded the modern state of Turkey in Ankara. ...

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Prime Minister Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko continue political infighting in the face of the financial crisis facing Ukraine.

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The German parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of sending heavy weapons to Ukraine as the Russian invasion continues in eastern and southern Ukraine. The German parliament voted on Thursday, April 28, marking a major shift in policy for Germany with 586 in favor and 100 opposed, and 7 abstaining. Military aid should continue and accelerate wherever possible says the proposal that was passed with the backing of the ruling coalition of Greens, SDP and FDP, and backed by the largest opposition party the Christian Democrats (CDU). The far right AfD opposed the proposal. The proposal also foresees an appeal to China for it to "abandon its acceptance of war" and actively support a truce, says this report in DW.com.

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The former interim Speaker Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican North Carolina, tells a University of Chicago student audience that one can hold off a majority Congressmen only for so long, that there could be a two third majority in the House favoring the Ukraine aid. That bill for $61 billion in Ukraine aid passed the US Senate 70-30 with 22 Republican Senators supporting it but is blocked for 2 weeks by Speaker Mike Johnson for a House vote. Former Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin tell a Washington Post event that House Speaker Mike Johnson has to make up his mind to be decisive and take action that get things done. Ryan served as vice presidential nominee and became Speaker in October 2015 eight years before Mike Johnson in a similar situation where his job depended on different factions. Mike Johnson's view is that he wants to be seen as listening to all members to kind of decentralizing things. Yet as more experienced members of Congress say the only way to get things done is for the Speaker to take action on his own accord and let the situation rest there having done his best. This situation is happening today in the House as about half of all Congressmen in the House of Representatives have not served in Congress before January 2019, says The Washington Post. ...

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The president says of the remarks by the former president about European countries that do not meet defense budget needs that Russia could then do what the hell it wants, that it was un-American and strange. Biden said- "History is watching. History is watching. History is watching. Failure to support Ukraine at this critical moment will never be forgotten." He also pointed out that most of the $60 billion in military aid will be spent in the United States, it will create American jobs, it will renew the defense infrastructure of the US that is needed. Senator Tillis, Republican of North Carolina also said this on the floor of the Senate in the bipartisan Senate. effort. The House of Representatives led by a small faction in the Senate has changed Speakers 3 times, and the new Speaker Mike Johnson from Louisiana lacks extensive experience and is in this role for a few months. He is now faced with deciding how to move forward even with president's call to have a vote immediately on the biparitsan approval in the Senate for $91 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan that passed 70-29 with 22 Republicans voting for. ...

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The Quad meeting of the US, Australia, Japan and India took place in Hiroshima, as shown here. The leaders expressed their deep concern over the economic effects of the Ukraine war, including "food, fuel and energy security, critical supply chains. The meeting was to take place in Sydney, Australia, but was cancelled due to debt talks taking place between Biden and Republicans in the US Congress. The next Quad meeting is in India in 2024. Biden will meet pm Modi in the US June 22. PM Modi also meets Macron on Bastille Day in Paris on 14 July as a special guest of France.

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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spend Tuesday night August 2 in Taipei, Taiwan. China has threatened severe consequences and Taiwanese forces are on alert. Yet with over $1 trillion in China's exports to US and EU in 2021 the response will have to take this into account as also the US and EU to redesign its supply chains. This is the first trip of a senior US official to Taiwan as Speaker Pelosi comes next to the Vice President to succeed the presidency. The US response to the Russian attack on Ukraine was made in Biden's word as a deterrent to China in its role in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pelosi trip may be a reflection of this policy that seeks to maintain the US position that Indo-Pacific is international waters, that US policy will continue as before undeterred by actions such as the Russian attack on Ukraine with the support of China. And that US will engage fully with allies in the Indo-Pacific- Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. And that is doing this with the cooperation of its allies in the region- Australia, Japan and India. US and EU imports from China are $541 and $522 billion over $1 trillion for 2022. Loss of even a significant portion of these exports from major tensions in the region would have a severe impact on Chinese economic growth. The US and EU are already engage in redesigning the supply chain and would also face problems in a transition similar to the gas rationing in Germany after cutoff of Russian supplies. The trade is too big a factor at this time. ...

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The Ukraine war has serious side effects with food prices going up as much as 50% in parts of the world that include Asian and African nations and nations in the Middle East. Countries with debt or facing the aftermath of wars and conflicts fare much worse.  Coming after the problems created by the pandemic in the economy and health of many countries these nations are ill prepared for what is happening. 

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China's sharp slowdown in growth to below 4% is likely to reduce inflation in the US, Europe and the rest of the world. This means less demand for oil and gas, other commodities, that China absorbed for the higher growth, in a degree that was disproportionate when compared to the needs of the rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa, the US and Europe. The inflation in other parts of the world with inflation now exceeding 10% in Britain, is driven by the war in Ukraine cutting off supplies of Russian oil, and by supply chain issues. Lower demand for fossil fuels in China could compensate for the loss of Russian oil supplies by adding that much oil and gas to oil markets. Supply chain issues are being resolved though this may take some time. And a new supply chain is being built that replaces the old one that was too stretched out all over the world without emphasis on making at home in the US and Europe, India and other countries. US shale oil companies have not invested in increasing production and this could change adding to oil and gas supplies. Moderating inflation and a winding down of the war in Ukraine could help the economies of the US, Europe, India and other countries. ...

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President Biden makes clear US commitment to Taiwan's defense. He said in Tokyo during his Asian visit in response to a question would the US intervene militarily if Taiwan was invaded. He said "Yes. That is the commitment we made." Biden said he supports the One China policy that there is one China, but for China to take Taiwan by force- "It would dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine. So the burden, is even stronger."

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The increasing price of wheat and the failure to modernize Pakistan's agriculture is the subject of this report in The Indian Express. The floods and the Ukraine war, lack of development in agriculture, have created a food crisis in Pakistan.

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It is a moment in the Senate that Majority leader Schumer says will be remembered years from now. A total of 65 Senators vote to support an aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and humanitarian aid, all Democrats and 18 Republicans as a group led by Senator Mitch McConnell, the Minority Leader. The Republican Senators include Senator WIcker the senior member on the Armed Services Committee, military veterans, and centrists. Voicing strong support were Senator Tillis of North Carolina and Moran of Kansas on the Senate floor. Tillis said "there is a common conviction that if we fail on this vote, if we don't support Ukraine, this is not bluster, not hyperbole- bad things will happen." Tillis also said that after the earlier vote to break a filibuster by Republican colleagues -"I slept like a baby last night." The list includes senior Republican leaders Cronyn of Texas, both senators from Iowa including Grassley, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Mullin of Oklahoma, Rounds of South Dakota, Thune of South Dakota, Todd Young of Indiana. In terms of age and experience this may be the most senior and most experienced Republican leaders from over half of the traditionally Republican states. ...

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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....

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This report in WSJ says Mr. Musk's agreement with Twitter for the $44 billion merger had terrible timing. It comes with the future for social media companies becoming dimmer and the plunging shares in Tesla with the high inflation and the war in Ukraine hitting stocks.  It is striking that Musk around January 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine referred to Twitter as "the future of civilization," as reported by WSJ. This was typical of the hyperbole and talk typical of the last two decades that hyped up internet stocks. Musk said- "Having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important for the future of civilization. I don't care about the economics at all." Twitter stock meanwhile has dropped to 20% below the price it came into public markets in 2013, now at about $35 a share. Mr. Musk agreed to buy Twitter at $54.20 a share about 50% more than it stands now. Twitter ad revenue outlook is dimming further as has happened at other social media companies and the company is now cutting jobs says the WSJ. ...

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US farm incomes will increase in 2023 with higher demand and higher food prices, the rebound of China after Covid. The Ukraine war created shortages leading to higher prices. After several years of lower farm income before the Covid period farm incomes remain strong and farmers are better able to pay the higher price of inputs including seed and fertilizer.

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US president Biden calls president Xi of China on April 2, the first call after the two met at the April Summit for extensive discussions and agreements reached. In it Biden continued discussion on topics related to Taiwan, the South China Sea and also raised the issue of China indirectly helping Russia build its defense capability in Ukraine.

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When Daniel Henninger of WSJ Editorial Board says in the adjoining article/video that to get anything done with something like the current split Congress a newly elected Republican president would have to operate by executive orders and could get little done, he is referring to the stalled Ukraine aid legislation in the US Congress after passage 70-20 by bipartisan vote in the US Senate. Legislation is stalled in the 2022 newly elected US House of Representatives with a group of Republican Congressmen called the Freedom Caucus seeking to block all legislation if it does not get its way. The now famous line "dead on arrival" line of Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana for legislation passed in the Senate for Ukraine aid. Pew Research looks at the change in the House and explains. It says about 49 members of Congress are part of or aligned to this group. About 71% or 35 of 49 members have less than six years of experience which includes 9 freshmen, compared to 58% or 100 of 173 Congressmen of all other Republican members of Congress. And two thirds of Freedom Caucus are from the South compared to 46% of all other Republicans in Congress. It is striking that only three are from states such as Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania or a mere 6% for Northeast and Midwest.  ...

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Although the Russian economy has weathered the Ukraine war with 3.6% growth estimated by Rossstat and 3% by IMF in 2023, this comes with the economy dependent on heavy military spending. Military spending on defense budget increases to $119 billion in 2024, and increase of an astounding 90% from 2021. It has boosted wages in construction and aided certain industrial regions near Moscow and St Petersburg, and boosted manufacturing with more products made at home. The oil and gas revenues decreased by 23% in 2023 over 2022. After 2 years of war and particularly after contraction in 2022 the Russian economy is recovering and has surprised most forecasters. The problem with military industrial complex growth is that it leads to uneven growth with negect of some areas. In Russia the reduced access to western advanced technology is compensated by increase in technological capacity of countries such as China. A bigger problem is the loss of human resources during the war in Ukraine, and Russians who left the country seeking better lives in other countries.  ...

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Newly elected president Poroshenko's personal relations with Putin and his connections to Russia's business interests will help him improve relations with Putin. He wants to have substantive preparations for talks with Russia so that progress is made in relations and in other issues. Putin has said he will respect the results of the Ukraine election. Senators Portman and Cardin, and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright were in Kiev to monitor the elections, and found them to be fair and properly conducted. Turnout was high and voters rejected the old world politics of the main rival candidate Tymoshenko, who received only 13% of the vote compared to Poroshenko's 54%. Poroshenko is a businessman who started out in chocolate, but has business interests in automobiles and owns television station 5. He was Speaker of parliament, and Trade minister in previous governments. The election result and voter rejection of the old politics gives a fresh start, and a chance for Russia, Germany and the EU to move forward. Russian president Putin had serious problems with the old politicians and may find it easier to work with Poroshenko. American led sanctions provide Russia an incentive to resolve the situation to give Russia's economy a chance to recover from serious capital outflows. Poroshenko is pro-EU, with enough Russian connections to maintain confidence in Russian-Ukrainian relations, for the fresh start Ukrainians are looking for. His focus is on economic development, with jobs as a priority for the young people facing extremely high unemployment....