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The views of Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, of Robert Steel Undersecretary of the Treasury, and of r Schwartz of Bear Stearns and Dimon of Chase JP Morgan and Ben Bernanke in answering questing at a key congessional hearing of the Senate banking Committee about the Bear Stearns collapse. The $2 a share was determined after Geithner and Paulson knew that JP Morgan was prepared to bid $2 a share, and Paulson saw the need to keep the price as low as a higher price would create the possibility of moral hazard. Dimon's view he was buying a house on fire and he had to do in 48 hours what it would take a month to do, Schwartz, view the rumors did Bearn Stearns in ans set the stage for a bank run, Geithner's view the Fed would not have lent money to Bear Stearns directly under its new policy of lending to investment banks because it felt very uncomfortable about Bear Stearns knowing what it knew at the time. Officials say that the first $1 billion in losses from Bear Stearns would be borne by JP Morgan and after the $10 a share upgrading of the Chase offer the Fed lent $25 billion to Bear Stearns/Chase to complete the deal separate from the $30 billion Fed support of the original deal. Fed disclosed that securities firms borrowed an average of $38.1 billion a day through the week ending Wednesday and direct lending to tradtional borrowerswent up dramatically to $7 billion a day up from $550 million a day the previous week and the highest level since 9/11. Ben Bernanke's view it was action necessary in the interest of the American economy, and the bailout of Bear Stearns was a bailout of the markets in general. This includes Asian markets because the pressure was to do something before Asian markets opened Sunday night....

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The personality based governance under Carlos Ghosn is seen as a problem now that Mr. Ghosn is in a jail cell in Tokyo and under investigation by Japanese prosecutors. Mr. Ghosn faces charges that he under reported his deferred pay over a five year period to 2011.  The Economist magazine points out the other problems that might have led to to the authorites being informed about the failure of Nissan to make the internal audits. This relates to the activities  of Mr. Ghosn to arrange a possible takeover by Renault through a merger. Nissan owns only 15% non voting stake in Renault, and Renault by comparison owns a 43.4% ownership in Nissan. The French government has a 15% stake in Renault and efforts were made by Mr. Macron, as Economy minister, to secure double voting rights for long term shareholders such as the French government. This leaves the Japanese government and Nissan reluctant to see the move to Renault's takeover. The French government left with suspicions on the reasons for Mr. Ghosn's removal now less likely to cede control over the joint venture. The jet setting high flying ways of executives such as Mr. Ghosn with the company's identity being defined by their activities are also coming under much criticism. The CEO of Chrysler Mr. Marchionne was gravely ill at 66 following a decade of deal making, with chain smoking, leading to a severe illness. Renault under Ghosn rescued Nissan in 1999, Fiat under Marchionne rescued Chrysler in 2009 with U.S. government help. The Economist magazine points out the Nissan alliance with Renault is now tarnished by another high flying executive.   ...

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Inspirational talk given to Prime Minister's Office Staff on June 10, 2024, by Indian PM Narendra Modi. In this video Modi tells staff about the nature of the PM's office as a catalytic agent for creating new enthusiasm and energy for the nation's development efforts. Before 2014 prime ministers before him considered this as a power center, says Modi. He tells staff that the development effort was hard work for achieving the vision of a modern developed nation Vikshit Bharat 2047. That this was work 24 hours a day 7 days a week to accomplish goals set to meet the aspirations of 1400 million people in India. He says three points to remember was that work had to be done with concentration on the goal without getting distracted and determination to achieve it, second to have the character to do this in real life setting priorities and tasks. Third, the frame of mind that is always learning, always studying, always acquiring new knowledge about the tasks ahead.  ...

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An unattended vegetable stand in the Ebusi neighborhood of Tokyo. A few minutes from the rail station is this vegetable stand run by Tomo from Hiroshima and her son 14 year old Satoru, a former real estate office worker who quit to open a vegetable store. One day she was shocked to hear a customer say she had money enough to only come once a month for vegetables. Tomo closes this store and opens a vegetable stand which prices vegetables at prices young workers on low wages can afford. One young worker from Okinawa who works for a large company made so little that she had only $70 for food in her monthly budget. She becomes a regular customer and asks her grandmother how to cook zucchini, eggplants so she can save money by cooking at home. This is a really heart warming video about Tomo's farm in a prefecture near Tokyo a 2 hour drive away. Tomo prices everything at 70 cents or 100 yen a plastic bag of vegetables. Her son learns to farm and to run the stand. Mostly the stand is unattended with long caring messages on a message board to customers. It tells young workes not to worry too much about the future. ...

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Mr Niederauer, CEO of NYSE Euronext, who will be the CEO of a combined NYSE-Deutsche Bourse, took pains to emphasize that it is a merger, a business combination arrangement, not an acquisiton. Because Deutsche Bourse current stock market value is $15 billion compared with about $10 billon for NYSE Euronext, Deutsche Bourse shareholders will get 60% of the combined company. The issues of ownership, the name of the new company and the headquarters and management team, are sensitive ones because the NYSE has traditionally been a symbol of America's role in the world of finance. American lawmakers want to see NYSE appear first in the new name to symbolize America's position in the world of finance. For this reason Deutsche Bourse will not appear first, and the headquarters will be dual headquarters in New York and Frankfurt.

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Defense Secretary Gates does not see Russia as the threat it was in the Cold War, first because Russia's conventional forces are a "shadow" of what they were during the Cold War, and Russia has adverse demographic trends that will diminish Russia's ability in conventional forces. He sees the Georgian war in the context of Russia's seeking to exorcize, as he puts it, past humiliations. And Gates sees opportunities in the relationship with Russia. Such things as Russia's willingness to work with the US on Afghanistan. Evidence of this is Russia supporting the renwal of the UN resolution on Afghanistan. Another indication is that Russia he says is very worried about the drugs coming out of Afghanistan, and has been supportive to provide alternative routes for Europeans to get equipment and supplies into Afghanistan. These views come across in an interview on December 17, with Charlie Rose, a five time elected Congressman, for the PBS Charlie Rose show. They are also reflected in an article in Foreign Affairs journal's current issue. Gates was a CIA analyst and has some insightful observations. Gates told Charlie Rose that he does not see the Islamic radicals and violent Islamic extremists as a threat in the same way as the threat in the Cold War years. This threat is not as big as the threat to freedom during the Cold War. He says the failure in strategic communications was huge as agencies of the US government engaged in activities in other countries, like the Agency for International Development and the US Information Agency, were neglected starting in the in the 1990's. Communications in other countries of what the US represented and stands for was left to the Pentagon, a role the Pentagon was ill-suited for. He sees the Islamic terrorism as more of an ideological conflict. Speaking at a town hall meeting at the Balad Air Force base in Iraq, in December, Gates pointed to these communications failures as a real challenge for the new administration. But he now sees a huge opportunity in this past failure, and ways of addressing it creatively, in addition to commiting resources and people to this effort. Walter Pincus wrote this article, and its part of the fineprint analysis effort at the Washington Post in which speeches, reports, and other documents are examined by people like Pincus, to catch the really important things, uncovering the fine print that really makes the headlines. Another aspect of this fineprint effort is that there are a huge number of reports, and speeches and documents that had a tone reminiscent of the Cold War during the Georgia war and yet they do not correctly reflect the real situation about Russia, as Gates sees it from his analysis of what is actually happening. Gates has used Foreign Affairs, the Dec 17 Charlie Rose Show on PBS in which he was interviewed, and the speech at the Balad Air Force base in Iraq, to communicate his views and analysis. They are important to underline and emphasize precisely because they show that all that cold war hysteria reporting and speeches may be misleading and lead to improper conclusions and mistakes in policy, wasted effort, wasted resources, and lost lives. And just as the US strategic communications was starved of resources and effort, so also this necessary work to retrieve and give emphasis to the important things is neglected. One additional link to this is the speech, discussion, and QA session in Washington DC at the time of the G20 summit in which President Medvedev and the new administration's elder statesman and diplomat Marilyn Albright, former secretary of state, expressed their hopes and plans for a new era in Russian-American relations. ...

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The US Saudi Strategic Alliance is modeled on the US Japan Treaty and commits US to defend the Saudi kingdom. A draft of the treaty is being negotiated. It requires a two thirds majority in US Congress. A parallel US Saudi Cooperation Agreement is also put in place by Biden and can be done by Executive Order. What motivates this at this time and why after 9/11 when most of the attackers were Saudi, and after relations with Saudi deteriorated under Obama and president Biden's questioning some Saudi actions? The two main reasons are the change Salman of Saudi is bringing to the country modernizing its internal society and and freeing it up from the religion based restrictions of an earlier period, and his focus on investment in the economic development working with India and partners in the region, a relief from the incessant wars from the period of Reagan/Bush as the US makes domestic policy benefits determine foreign policy under Biden. Unknown in most of the world and media a change of demeanor happened at the G-20 meetings in India when prime minister Modi brought Biden and Salman together on economic development plans of a development corridor linking India through Saudi andest Asia to Europe. Biden supported the effort and it showed the Saudis under Salman as leading a development plan along with Modi and other partners for development in the Middle East after frequent wars dissipating the resources of the region and of the US. since Reagan/Bush policy failures and escalation. It is this intervening period of three decades of war that led to China's gains in relation to the US, with twin strikes to the US of China's domination of supply chains, deindustrialization, and loss of manufacturing jobs for working classes in US and Europe. Coupled with this is the opportunity for Biden and Blinken to give Israel an opportunity it never enjoyed for most of its life as a free nation since 1948 to have peace with its Arab neighbors. It is even possible that the prospect of this happening without a settlement for Palestinian statehood that would leave things in Gaza and Palestine at status quo that propelled the sudden attack on Israel. Biden and Blinken want to do the Saudi deal with a new element of getting Palestinian statehood on a basis of respect for dignity of people and of economic independent country which would put to rest decades of Arab neighbor disapproval of Israel. This is both a new vision of West Asia, what we call the Middle East, and an opportunity to focus and also cope with on Asia with the rise of China, India, as the two largest economies with EU and US in the world. ...

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This NYT report looks at the last minute negotiations on the day the trial was to begin that led to the FNN television network working out a deal with Dominion.It says in a conference room down the hall from Judge Eric Davis's courtroom in downtown Wilmington, Delaware, were the head of Dominion, John Poulos, and the top investor in Dominion, State Street Capital co-founder Hootan Yaghhoobzadeh. In a call from Los Angeles was Viet Dinh, chief legal officer, close to Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch. Also calling in was a mediator who knew both sides, Jerry Roscoe, a veteran of wartime negotiations in the Balkans on a Danube river cruise with his wife. Roscoe says he had two things working for him- the about to begin opening statements of Dominion ("lies have consequences,") and the finalization of the jury selection (12 jurors presenting much uncertainty for Dominion) that had given pause to both sides. That Viet Dinh's hardline was just that an appearance, was Fox head Lachlan's earlier decision unknown to each side to raise the money needed for a larger settlement close to $787 million the company actually paid. It suggests that Fox heads Lachlan and Murdoch really wanted to settle in the final moments using as skilled a mediator as Jerry Roscoe . FNN television network also owned the WSJ, and WSJ had independently supported the 2020 election results from the beginning, as WSJ pointed out in its editorial this week. Murdoch's own position being ambivalent about his positions, never quite convinced what was the right thing to do whether his own judgement was dependable. FNN was simply following the practice of creating controversy to increase circulation, a practice going back to the Melbourne Herald in the 1920's when competing with papers from Sydney, under Keith Murdoch. Setting the early twentieth century origins of News Corporation, parent of FNN, following  the practices of increasing news circulation by pursuing controversy of British newspaper businessmen Beaverbrook and Northcliffe through the prewar period in the 1920's to the 1950's. In that period it had led to Beaverbrook to support Neville Chamberlain, and to oppose Truman and Churchill during the early days of the Cold War till the Berlin Blockade in 1948, positions which were speedily retracted in that time to back Churchill in 1940 and in 1948.   ...

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Siome things that emerge from this report are that Thain spent some $1.2 million in redecorating his office after Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch. This was after the near demise of Merrill from taking excessive risks. Sources also say Thain asked for a $30 million to $40 million bonus which was not approved. A few days before the Merrill deal was finally concluded on January 1, under stressful circumstances because of Merrill's huge impending losses, Thain issued bonuses of millions of dollars to Merrill executives. See the links to Merrill for the pattern of giving bonuses worth 100 times the salary to Merrill executives under a former CEO of Merrill Lynch in 2006 and 2007.

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WSJ's Monica Langley provides an exceptional report with a close look at the first woman CEO at a large corporation in the cusp of great change. IBM CEO Ginni Rometty is remaking IBM by moving out of existing businesses and shifting to new growth areas such as analytics, cloud computing, new R&D advances. She sees her job as building the IBM of the future, and this includes divestments and phasing out of some businesses, acquisitions, and building some businesses such as the Watson Heath Care business from scratch. In some fast growing areas such as cloud computing this means competing with other established competitors, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Rometty's job is tough because of the size of IBM with 380,000 people in 170 countries, a culture that lacks the agilityof younger companies, and the older businesses which continue to slow IBM's progress, and where divestments reduce revenues. IBM sales are down for 12 consecutive quarters from the year earlier quarter. IBM's share price is down about 10% since Rometty became CEO in Jan. 2012, resulting in investor dissatisfaction with results. Rometty's goal is for 40% of IBM's revenues to come from corporate markets in analytics, cloud computing, cybersecurity, social networking, and mobile technologies, increasing it from 27% of about $93 billion in sales in 2014, and 15% of $105 billion in sales in 2013. Sold off and divested are low end servers, IBM's chip maker, and other hardware businesses. It is so extensive that whats left of the mainframe business is focussed on new technologies for mobile. Rometty setup a partnership with Apple for the corporate mobile market, and started Watson Health as a new venture in analytics for healthcare using its Watson Computer technology. Rometty grew up in Chicago, one of 3 daughters raised by a single mom, who says she was taught to be "fearless" by her mother. She graduated from Northwestern University with majors in electrical engineering and computer science, joining IBM as a systems engineer in 1981. She carries a backpack, school size notebooks, on her frequent trips to see customers in person and is constantly prodding employees at IBM to go faster. Rometty has a passion for scuba diving in her spare time and always carries the gear with her. Christine Lagarde at the IMF is one of the few women heading large organizations that have the same level of energy. Lagarde's passion is swimming having competed in sychronized swimming, and both Rometty and Lagarde describe the loss of a parent in different ways as a significant impact in their life. ...

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UK Business Secretary Kwarteng orders a National Security Review of the acquisition by Chinese semiconductor maker Wingtech through a Dutch subsidiary of a semiconductor factory in Wales. The factories in Wales are becoming a hub of the UK semiconductor industry with research and manufacture of compound semiconductors, which enable electric batteries for cars to get more mileage. Nine Congressmen in the US wrote to the Biden administration about the acquisition and its dangers for the UK and US semiconductor industry's technology being shifted to China. The head of the UK Foreign Affairs committee in parliament also alerted the UK government of the risks involved. The UK government has passed a law that allows it to retroactively cancel deals that are considered a risk for national security. Under the Bush and Obama administrations there was a transfer of western technology through acquisitions of this type and not much was done by the governments in Europe and the US. This enabled China to acquire western technology using its state subsidized firms which had better access to financing for acquiring key western technologies. It was only under the Trump administration that 2 decades after it started in 2000 this process was given attention. It was ignored in the same manner that the Germans under chancellors Schroeder and Merkel allowed Russian energy companies to dominate the energy sector in Germany even to the point of acquiring ownership of the storage of energy on German soil. That dependence allowed by German elites according to the Manchester Guardian in a recent article is now unwinding with the brave and unceasing efforts of Economy Minister Habeck,  who is now the most popular person in Germany for making this  correction in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with China's support. ...

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ Editorial Board says even if a Republican is elected president it would be a question of 4 more years of what? The big problem today he says is the small number of legislators in the US House of Representatives, about 20 in the Freedom Caucus, that are opposed to the government operating unless they get their way. The result is that independent Speakers of the Republican controlled House, with Republicans having a slim majority, are unable to get elected, and the Speaker elected is a relative newcomer Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who entered Congress as recently as 2017. The new Speaker has said the legislation passed by a bipartisan group of Senators in the US Senate 70-30 for aid to Ukraine is "dead on arrival." Result an impasse with some saying this is the most ineffective Congress ever. In this situation if a Republican is elected president says Henninger he can do little because a loss of even one legislative branch to Democrats the House or the Senate would leave America where it started- in an impasse for 2024-2028. For this reason he says even though Mr. Trump said he would do great things there was little he could point to in his vision for the future, and little he could do just by signing executive orders that would later be reversed.  ...

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Paulson says in his new book that debt as a percentage of GDP is up in China from 130% in 2008 to 204% in 2014. He sees the borrowing surge in China as certain to cause trouble, and describes a scenario where the real estate market runs into trouble. He is particularly concerned about the trust companies in China. The Economist has decribed this in similiar terms in its recent issues. And experts including Krugman have warned about this for some time.

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The merger of US Airways and American Airlines moves ahead after an antitrust settlement with the U.S. government with only limited concessions by the two airlines. As part of the settlement the newly merged airline will give up slots for 17 daily round trip flights at La Guardia airport in New York (a 7% reduction in departures) and 52 round trips at Reagan National in Washington DC (a 15% reduction). This is expected to increase competition from lowcost carriers at these airports. Overall the deal is a good one for the merged airlines as it still keeps most of the profitable routes at these airports and also keeps most of its flights intact- affecting only 112 of 6500 daily flights. The two airlines conducted a strong lobbying effort winning support from 8 big city mayors, 183 members of Congress and with support from 100,000 mostly unionized employees.

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Grethcen Morgenson says investor Paulson who handpicked the bad apples from mortgage securities that were placed in the basket called Abacus 2007-AC1, and sold by Goldman to institutional investors, knew exactly what he was doing. Paulson paid Goldman $15 million for creating and marketing the Abacus deal according to the complaint by the SEC. Gretchen does not fail to disclose the ultimate irony of these happenings in her own subtle manner. Paulson, a graduate of the Stern School of Business, and of Harvard Business School, makes a living out of shorting high-flying shares in the tech bubble, and now in the mortgage securities bubble. This time in 2007 he makes an estimated $3.7 billion in 2007 and $2 billon in 2008 for his hedge fund with investors from pension funds, endowments, wealthy families and individuals. The irony- a Congressional committee invites him to testify in November 2008 about the credit crisis, they ask him for advice in solving the credit crisis. The other irony- Paulson gives $15 million to the Center for Responsible Lending, for a center that would provide foreclosure assistance to borrowers under water....

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African Americans from Chicago, Harvard Law School and other places in Obama's background, some of whom came into government with the Clinton administration are likely to assume leadership positions.John Rogers of Ariel Capital Management, Valerie Jarrett, are from Chicago. Some of them are at law firms like Jeh Johnson who is a fellow partner of Theodore Sorensen speechwriter for President Kennedy. These are a new group of younger African Americans different from the earlier generation of Andy Young and Vernon Johnson. Eric Holder was deputy attorney general under Clinton, now his name is mentioned for Attorney General. Ties in Chicago include ties to Martin Nesbitt, a close friend, who is chairman of the Chicago Housing Authority and a real estate developer. Harvard Law School admits 30 to 40 black students each year, and it has 1400 black law school alumni, more blacck law school graduates than any other school except Howard University. And its a source for fundraising and other contacts....

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Alas, economists and intellectuals such as Gita Gopinath of the IMF, just don't get it when they say the EU can increase growth by half percent meeting labor shortages using immigrants. As WSJ reports 50-60% of asylum seekers in Netherlands since 1999 are less skilled /less educated immigrants, are unemployed or on benefits.The new view across all parties is lets stop the immigration surges, its too overwhelming for the people to deal with, so that we can focus on cost of living and low wages for workers. Across Starmer's Labour in Britain, across Biden/Harris Democrats lined up with Republican Lankford in the US pledging to sign the legislation to close the southern Border, and in France Macron's premier Michel Barnier wants to do the same.   Mette Frederiksen of Denmark was a pioneer in the EU in showing that immigration acts as a distraction that hurts the working class as it distracts people from the key issues facing workers of cost of living and low wages, poor benefits. She was elected as a Socialist party leader in Denmark in 2015 and as prime minister in 2019. Sahra Wagenknecht, follows Mette Frederiksen, herself a daughter of immigrant, has formed her own party out of Socialist Die Linke in Germany which is now getting about 15% German voter support, 25% in the east, along similar lines to pause and stop immigration because it hurts the working class. In other parts of EU- France's Macron coalition has a prime minister who has called for a pause on immigration. US president Harris and Candidate Harris have pledged to sign bipartisan legislation drafted by Republican Senator Lankford to close the southern Border. The European Asylum Agency has the numbers at just over one million asylum seekers in EU in 2023 and agains in 2024 split by country- Germany 127,000 24% France 77,000 15%, and Italy and Spain 87,000 each 17% each Belgium, Netherlands and Austria 17,000 each at 3% each, Greece a bit higher. Some like the US and Germany with stronger economic base and industries can absorb the educated immigrants from middle class fleeing wars and strife, and less educated immigrants in construction and hospitality. The bigger danger is in creating support for parties that will use the issue to take whole economies and countries backwards by further depressing workers wages, benefits and rights, exacerbating social divisions around race and income that they say they will solve but have no economic policy to do this. All socialist and socialist democratic parties have grasped this in 2023-2024, some earlier by 2019. ...

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Black or illicit money in India is estimated to be $400 billion to $1 trillion, much of it in the domestic economy. About 30% of land transactions are in black money, and it is growing with 500 and 1000 rupee notes increasing in circulation by about 79% and 106% between 2011 and 2016, according to government sources. The Narendra Modi government has announced that 500 and 1000 rupee notes will no longer be accepted in transactions as of midnight. People have 50 days to exchange them at banks, and banks will keep records so that this money can be taken into account for taxes due. A senior official in the Department of Economic Affairs, Mr. Das, says-"You cannot have a shadow economy representing a substantial percentage of the real economy." Big banks will be closed on Nov. 9, and ATM's till Nov. 11, 2016. Mr. Modi, the prime minister said in a televised address: "In the last few years the specter of corruption and black money has grown." He cited "the challenges posed "by threat of terrorism, the challenge posed by corruption and black money." ...

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A complete reversal of the Monroe Doctrine (US president Monroe 1817-1825) policies -that kept the American continent north and south free of colonial European powers- is an affront to the US and has cost the US in Latin America. With fentanyl deaths and drug trafficking, migrant trafficking, interference by foreign powers in the Americas In Cuba, Venezuela and other countries, and ports owned by China in South America.  Hong Kong magnate Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings sale of Panama Canal ports to Black Rock for $23 billion takes place on March 4, 2025. The two ports on both sides of the Panama Canal will now be in American hands. Li Ka Shing started out fleeing from the devastated China of the Sino Japanese war to the British colony of Hong Kong, left school at 15 to work and started out with a small plastics factory in 60's Hong Kong. He then branched out into real estate as Hong Kong's economy expanded, and in the 2000-2020 period with rapid growth of China with US assistance (Clinton and Bush administrations) moved to acquire most of the ports and container terminals in the world. It is these ports that are now being bought back by the US. 23 ports and container terminals in 43 countries will now be sold back by Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings back to Black Rock under an agreement. None of this could have happened under the lackadiasical policies of previous administrations that led to first affront and then disastrous effects of migrant trafficking and drug trafficking in this hemisphere.   ...

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A WSJ survey of U.S. housing market prices and inventory in November 2013. Price gains moderated in the 3rd quarter of 2013. Gains were 1% in Orange County, 2% in San Diego, and 3% in San Francisco in the 3rd quarter 2013. Gains were over 20% in the 12 month period ending in September 2013 for San Francisco, Phoenix, San Diego, and Orange County, according to Zillow Inc, real estate website. Increase in interest rates on mortgages and rising prices have reduced the affordability of homes for new buyers.

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The 28 Point Peace Plan offers a basis for further work to arrive at an agreement acceptable to Ukraine and to the European Union, is the view emerging at the G20 talks in Johannesburg, South Africa. The leaders of Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Italy and Spain met on Saturday, November 22 2025. Separately Leyen and the EU council president Costa meet with Meloni of Italy and Macron of France on Saturday after conversations with Zelensky on Friday.  British prime minister Starmer has this view of the 28 Point US plan negotiated with Russia-  “There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a cease-fire, and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians.” Ms. Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, says-  “Ukraine can count on us because this is not only an aggression against Ukraine, but it is an aggression against the principles of the U.N. charter." “It’s on European soil. Therefore, we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.” Macron of France commended American efforts to reach a peace deal but said EU nations would work with Ukraine to map out a plan for way forward in 48 hours.  "What is at stake is Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.” It is this aspect of European security that may be the reason the EU and Germany may decide to modify the plan to offer a counter proposal on several points. One on limits to the size of Ukraine's defense forces to ensure its defense. Another on the stationing of forces by NATO in a peacekeeping role in Ukraine as proposed earlier. Third on the ceding of territory now in the hands of Ukraine so that these parts of Ukraine can remain independent after 4 years of ragged defense. Germany under CDU Merz and with Pistorius of SPD at Defense in a strong coalition government may be the deciding factor as Merz has already set the goal for the Bundeswehr to become the strongest army in Europe, with plans and action to prepare for this transition to defend European interests. It is true that Ukraine is at a difficult point yet if the Europeans see this as a "capitulation" and a US DJT deadline of one week to push this through Europeans may come up with a counter offer that includes these points that would make it clear that they are not an obstacle for peaceful resolution of this conflict. The history of Europe shows that in such situations with most of Europe on one side and Russia or some other major European power on the other side, eventual settlement ends up with all sides making some concessions, and in no way seen as "capitulation." Asian powers China and India have been pulled out of the conflict to a large degree in 2024-2025, with US shifting to a neutral position. Making this a purely European conflict with the Russian economy mobilized for wartime yet facing all the nations of Europe led by Germany, France and the UK in a transition towards military preparedness and unwilling to see any form of capitulation. In such a situation the larger economies and resources of the EU could effectively counter a Russian threat leading to a settlement that is better for all parties to the conflict.   ...

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This Washington Post analysis of the Republican tax bill gives an exceptional view of the bill's impact and provisions. This is the first major change to the tax laws since 1986. The size of the bill is $1.5 trillion, with the Joint Committe on Taxation projection that the bill will increase tax revenues over a decade by $500 billion, meaning that it will cost $1 trillion being added to the deficit. What the bill does: 1. It offers a permanent tax cut to corporations by reducing the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent. Industries benefiting the most are mining, real estate, technology, manufacturing. 2. The individual tax cuts expire in 2025. They are skewed to disproportionately help highest income Americans, much less lower income Americans and much more highest income Americans compared to high income Americans. In this sense it is skewed in a an unusual way to the highest earning Americans- a sort of Trump effect in place. The top 1% get a tax break of $51,140 in 2019, middle income people earning about $100,000 get about $1000 a year in 2019, tax payers earning around $50,000 about $380, and those earning less than $25,000 about $60 a year in 2019. Taxpayers earning about 150,000 get about $2000 a year tax cut. (Tax Policy Center) 3. The basic assumption is that tax cuts are revenue neutral if there is economic growth and most of that growth comes from corporations investing in growth. The problem as Greg Ip points out in the Wall Street Journal is that countries trying thsi approach in the past such as Britain have not seen such growth materialize. Corporate profits are the highest in 15 years as percentage of GDP, according to Vanguard founder Bogle, and are now 20% of GDP compared 11% in 1980. If corporations did not invest with this level of profits how much additional investment is going to happen, ask critics, especially as demand drives growth and wages are not boosted under this plan.  4.  Because the bill's changes to current law makes it likely that 13 million less Americans will be insured over a decade- from fewer people signing up for Medicaid and on exchanges for Affordable Care Act- it will hurt lower income Americans. Skewing at both ends of the income spectrum of this type is rare in American history particularly in the twentieth century after the Depression of the 1930's, and poses risks for social cohesion, making it unpopular with most Americans. A CBS News poll taken Dec 3-5 shows 53% of all Americans opposed, only 35% support the tax bill just passed in Congress.  5. Then why did Republicans do this? Republicans needed a legislative success after failure to repeal the Obama Affordable Care law. This pressure led to passage with Republicans probably aware that this is temporary tax reform requiring a real effort by both parties working together after the midterm elections in 2018 and as the presidential election approaches in 2019.    ...

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Efforts by the government of prime minister Erdogan to keep Turkey's interest rates at the same rate as inflation, with an effective real interest rate of zero. Erdogan strikes out at what he calls the "higher interest rate lobby." Erdogan's party fears a downturn in the Turkish economy could affect the government's referendum on a new constitution. The IMF sees a high credit growth to GDP ratio as a warning light for countries and Turkey is identified as one of the main countries facing this problem.

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With better control over the coronavirus than U.S. and Europe, South Korea is not rushing to buy the vaccines developed by Pfizer or Moderna. It is waiting to see how the vaccine rollouts work in other countries before buying the vaccine. South Korea is also looking at getting better price from manufacturers after the rollouts in the U.S. and Europe. South Korea is moving cautiously and has said it wants to get 10 million doses through the Covax initiative the main global effort to provide broad access to vaccines. Another 20 million doses would be secured from private companies. This is in contrast to the approach in Japan where the government has signed deals for purchase of 290 million doses for 145 million people for its population of 126 million. The money allocated is $6.5 billion and the goal is to vaccinate everyone by first half of 2021.  If it works this would prepare Japan for the Tokyo Summer Olympics to open in July, after 1 year delay. South Korea has the freedom to do this and wait to see what vaccine works best with least long term effects because their are relatively fewer cases there. A total of 313 new daily cases on November 18, lower than daily cases in a single county in the state of Michigan in the U.S. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines use anew kind of gene based technology that has never been approved to prevent infectious diseases. Other competition is the vaccine from Oxford and Astra Zeneca which uses an existing technology that is used in existing vaccines modified for use in coronavirus. The Oxford vaccine and a vaccine from Johnson and Johnson are expected to have a lower price. Because life is functioning very close to normal South Korea is in the unusual position of saying that its people have no reason to be anxious for vaccine procurement, as indicated by its deputy director of Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Only three fifths of the population is the target for vaccination by fall of 2021. ...