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Unbelievable as it may sound David Sanger and Katie Rogers show in this report in the NYT that US China relations are being put on a stable level by Biden and Xi Jinping. The visit to San Francisco is being carefully planned to the last detail to make certain that Xi sees the right things about America and the trip goes well. The slowing economy in China, the rising youth unemployment, have changed th dynamic to the point where Xi will be meeting American industry leaders to attract and retain American investment. WSJ reports $110 billion withdrawn from bond markets in China. EU and AMerican companies withdrawing capital from China and putting some of it into investment in the US called reshoring that Biden supports.

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Youth Rehabilitation Act and 60-70% of DC crimes that fall under this Act in 2025, are creating a huge public safety problem in the nation's capital. Here Jeanine Pirro, US Attorney for District of Columbia, describes the problem where the law is so lenient on youth offenders that it has increased crime levels in DC to where residents and visitors to the capital from 51 states in the country and from other countries do not feel safe in the national capital. Pirro says that from 2022 to 2024, 60 percent of all sentences imposed in D.C. Superior Court for carjacking were eligible for sentencing under YRA,  71 percent of all armed carjackings, 69 percent of all armed robberies, and 61 percent of all assaults with intent to kill. Showing that youth crime is the dominant factor and the three laws mentioned here are simply not working and making people feel unsafe in their own neighborhoods. DJT and Attorney General Pam Bondi highlighted this situation at a press conference yesterday with the federal government stepping in to support law enforcement in the nation's capital. ...

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E.U. leaders reached a new agreement for solving the debt crisis in Greece and the broader eurozone debt crisis. This time an effort was made to come up with a solution that had some chance of working unlike earlier efforts. Earlier efforts that concentrated on austerity and burdened Greece and other countries in the debt crisis with higher interest rates came under severe criticism as unworkable. The result was higher unemployment, a shrinking economy, higher debt to GDP ratios, and contagion effects. The new plan commits to getting Greece on the path to growth. The European Financial Stability Facility will have powers to buy Greek bonds at their value in the secondary markets which means Greece would owe less to the EFSF, bringing down Greek debt. Greek debt maturities are to be extended over many years and interest rates lowered, with similiar actions for Portugal and Ireland. And private bondholders were given the option of taking 20% less on their bonds or extending the maturities of the bonds at lower interest rates. In return the bonds would have guarantees for repayment by the E.U. so that the private creditors would limit their losses. The draft document of the agreement says all the E.U. countries would commit to fiscal discipline....

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Dexia, the Belgian-French bank, reported a net loss of 11.64 billion euros for 2011, including 4.05 billion euros from selling Dexia Bank Belgium to the Belgian government in Oct 2011, and a 3.36 billion euro loss on Greek government bond holdings as a result of restructuring of Greece's debt. Other losses were 2.6 billion euros from an acceleration of the sale of a portfolio of U.S. mortgage backed securities, and about 1 billion euros from the sale of the Paris based public finance business to savings banks operated by the French government. Dexia ends up with a negative total equity of 320 million euros at the end of 2011. Dexia was one of the hardest hit European banks in the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

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The Leveson Report on newspaper ethics and practices in Britain calls for a parliamentary statute to support a new body to replace existing self-regulation efforts. The Press Complaints Commission would be replaced with a new body with tougher investigative powers and independent of newspaper influence, and fines ranging upto 1.6 million pounds.

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Andrew Ross Sorkin points out that investors are sitting on their hands and money is moving out of the stock market. About $171 billion has moved out of mutual funds over the last year, according to the Investment Company Institute. About $208 billion has gone into the bond market in the same period. There are now fewer long term investors and the market is dominated by professionals which increases the volatility. There is a lack of confidence in the economy, the same reason that businesses in the U.S. are sitting on $2 trillion in cash that could be invested, and for investors the feeling that the market is rigged to favor insiders. The Financial Literacy Group surveyed 878 students at 18 high schools in 11 states in the U.S. It found that three fourths of the students agreed with the statement: "The stock market is rigged mostly to benefit greedy Wall Street bankers."

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Mark Roe and expert on cororate governance and bankruptcy law at Harvard Law School, says two of the toughest issues facing the auto industry are clearly better dealt with under bankruptcy law. For the $30 billion of bond debt he says while a few holdouts can prevent arecapitalization outside of bankruptcy, under bankruptcy Chaoter 11 bondholders vote on the plan, and if those holding more than two thirds of the bonds by dollar value accept the deal it applies to all of them. For the supplier network he says courts know that the bankrupt company has to have supplies, inventory and parts flowing for it to function, so the bankruptcy code and bankruptcy courts put payments for new supplies at the top of the queue ahead of old lenders. HE says a bankruptcy judge has to approve these kinds of payments, but the approvals are regular and quick, sometimes on the first day of bankruptcy. So why is GM management saying the supplier network would collapse under bankruptcy? Mark Roe's answer to this question is that bankruptcy usually leads to a sharp change in management, and a new direction for the company. He adds that here are experts at fixing troubled companies who would take new directions and be more effective than current management at GM. ...

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The effects on the U.S. stock market, Treasurys and corporate bond yields of the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to continue Operation Twist in June 2012. The Fed plans to sell $267 billon in short term debt through the end of the year. The effects are expected to be more muted compared to the quantitative easing efforts of QE I, QE II, and the Operation Twist through June 2012 in which the Fed sold $400 billion in short term debt. The effects of the eurozone crisis and slower growth worldwide are other macroeconomic forces at work which may play a larger role this time.

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All sides had to make concessions to reach a new agreement on a restructuring of Greece's debt, and new terms for loans to Ireland and Portugal. The agreement was reached after negotiations between France, Germany, the ECB, and eurozone countries with a declaration issued on July 21, 2011. The powers and financing of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) were expanded to be the main mechanism for channeling EU funding to reduce the burden of Greece's debt. Germany will provide new funding and be open to additional commitments, something German chancellor Angela Merkel had resisted since the beginning of the crisis in 2010. Earlier funding had come with high interest rates and only when the situation had reached a crisis, with Germany insisting on the punitive rates and conditions as a way to discourage countries from taking advantage of cheap borrowing. In exchange for commitment of German funds Ms Merkel had insisted that banks and private creditors share in the losses. Private bondholders resisted but finally agreed to take a loss of 20% of principal on a small portion of the bonds. Their larger concession was to take lower interest rates and extend the maturities to 15 years and 30 years on new bonds which are guaranteed by the EU. The specific terms of the agreement are as follows: The EFSF and the IMF will lend Greece 109 billion euros over 3 years at 3.5%. Private creditors including German and French banks will "voluntarily" turn in their old bonds for new ones that mature over 15-30 year periods. These new bonds include 15 and 30 year Greek bonds with varying coupons. Some of the bonds would have a 20% discount on principal. EU leaders say the private sector contribution amounts to 37 billion euros through 2014 and 106 billion euros through 2019. Another part of the program is for the EFSF to buy back some of the Greek bonds on the secondary markets, which would mean Greece would now owe a smaller amount to the EFSF on these bonds. The EFSF will now have additional financial support from Germany and other EU countries and be authorized to provide aid to countries before a crisis situation arises. It would also have power to buy Greek bonds at prices on secondary markets to reduce the Greek debt burden. Ireland and Portugal are also assisted in the agreement. The interest rate for EU aid to Ireland and Portugal is taken down to 3.5%. Ireland is paying about 6% on the EU portion of its 67.5 billon euros bailout and efforts to reduce the rate were resisted earlier. The main theme behind these concessions and provisions is to give Greece, (and Ireland and Portugal) a chance to grow. High interest rates came under strong criticism because it only increased the size of the debt burden of these countries with a shrinking economy and high unemployment. The failure to come together behind a broad and sensible agreement with all parties making serious concessions, the EU, the ECB and the political leadership in these countries especially Greece, was undermining confidence in the euro and the eurozone itself. By mid-July Italy and Spain were feeling the effects of contagion in the financial markets, U.S. debt ceiling negotiations were unsettling global financial markets, the pressure was intense to come up with the workable agreement achieved on July 21, 2011. ...

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The WSJ's Alessandra Galloni speaks with Mario Monti, the Italian premier, for in-depth interviews. Here Galloni and Walker provide an account of what happened during and after the June 28, 2012 summit of European leaders. Monti described the comments of ECB president Draghi in early August- about ECB buying of bonds of Italy and Spain being within the mandate of the ECB if monetary transmission channels were not working properly to reduce yields- as a bold effort following the agreement made at the June 28 summit to support Italy and Spain. Monti expressed the idea that Draghi should feel morally and politically justified if and when he makes the bold moves to rescue the euro. The only problem he says is whether one has to wait till the night before the euro is about to disintegrate for this to happen. This is the first time Monti has publicly expressed the possibility of this happening.

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Parmeswaran Iyer takes over India's development planning body Niti Aayog from Amitabh Kant on June 30. Iyer joined the Indian Administrative Service in 1981. He led the Swachh Bharat or Clean India Mission in 2016, and headed the national drinking water and sanitation department. In 2009 he left IAS to join the World Bank as Global Lead for Water Global Practice initiatives. He has also served as Professor of Management Practice at the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad. 

The Modi administration has selected a person in the right field of water resources with IAS background from Uttar Pradesh, and proven management ability to deliver results, for the critical task of leading India's development to 2030. 

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Jeff Sommer in the NYT says no one could have predicted the pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He says forecasts for the stock and bond markets over the short term for 2023 are useless. Most have missed by 12- 25% he says and compares this to forecasts that predict a cold day when it is going to be 60 degrees outside. Sommer's says in today's situation only long term horizons are relevant, looking and saving, investing over a ten year period. He cites Vanguard's approach of looking at the long term horizon in its investment outlook over 10 years on the Vanguard site as the right one based on the experience of the last 20-30 years and historical experience over long periods.

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Share purchases on credit using margin financing doubles between July and December 2014 to $130 billion for the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges. Retail investors open 370,000 accounts in Nov. 2014 alone. The Shanghai Stock Exchange share index went up by 25% in November 2014, and 50% since July 2014. The Securities Regulatory Commission made new restrictions on the use of riskier lower rated bonds as collateral for short term borrowing, and warned investors about rampant speculation. The sudden rise in the Shanghai index comes as investors shift away from investing in a cooling off property market, but creates its own set of risks especially with margin financing which could lead to quick downward spiral. A 5.4% drop in the Shanghai index on Dec. 9, 2014, leads to a 1-2% decline in global markets, at a time when oil prices decline added to uncertainty in the financial markets.

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On the negative side Japan has public debt that is about twice the size if its $5 trillion economy. In the USA government debt is up to 98% of GDP.On the positive side only 10% of it is owed to foreigners compared to 46% of it for the USA. Japan is also rich in personal savings and assets. Over half of government bonds are held by the public sector and the rest are with long term investors like banks and pension funds and insurance companies. So any sudden sell off of bonds is very unlikely.

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This WSJ editorial says about the US Fed guaranteeing the 90% of uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank to prevent systemic risk, that the 250,000 limit was set by Congress to protect average Americans not venture investors in Silicon Valley. Venture capital investors and startups in Silicon Valley put large amounts into the bank. It says the San Francisco Fed regulates Silicon Valley Bank and failed to perform its regulatory function. And adds that the idea of elevating San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors now seems preposterous. Fed, Treasury, and the bankers all have to take the blame. The Guardian reports that the CEO of SVB lobbied to reduce the regulatory impact on his bank. By choosing higher returns from long term Treasury bonds and expanding too quickly this created the conditions for the collapse, and then rescue by the Fed and Treasury in the all to familiar pattern since 2008.

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Surveys of American, European and Japanese companies show souring of outlook for China investment. And Biden administration new rules leading to investment of China profits in the US economy. About $110 billion moved out of yuan denominated China bonds since 2022. There is a sharp decline in the profits of US and EU companies in China that are reinvested in China after China's sporadic lockdowns in 2022 and increase in interest rates in the US. WSJ Analysis shows $170 billion profits reinvested in 2021 to net decline in third quarter 2023 outflows of capital over inflows declining by $11.8 billion, the first ever since 1998. Unlike in the past profits are being repatriated back out of the country so that investments can be made in the US economy or in other countries in the supply chain. This is a fundamental shift as risk of doing business in China increases. 

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The US Federal's half percentage point interest rate cut bodes well for stocks and bonds in the US, says this report in WSJ, as it reduces the burden of interest rates on small business that has a part of its debt in floating rates. The default risk component of rates also shrinks for large and small companies. A lot depends on how much the US is investing in manufacturing, in chips and science, in education, in infrastructure that reduces the costs to business and in its industries, which is the ultimate driver of growth. In this sense the Biden administration and Jerome Powell's Fed have accomplished a remarkable deal in the difficult period of the pandemic's four years 2020-2024. Much remains to be done yet this is a big deal, and the next president can leverage these strengths to set the US on the right path, the Way Forward for America.

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Th Labour party of Mr. Anthony Albanese promised a referendum on its "voice" plan to give aboriginals separate representation. It would have created an advisory body to the government for indigenous people related to issues such as health and education.The referendum failed by a wide margin in the vote across Australia. Some opposed it as not doing enough for reconciliation with the indigenous people who make up 4% of the Australian population, the opposition Liberal party opposed it as being too vague, and others felt the government was not doing enough for major issues such as cost of living.

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Argentina's offer for restructuring $66 billion of debt to foreign bondholders is rejected by the group. Argentina originally offered 39 cents to the dollar and 3 year grace period. The new offer was raised to one year grace period and 53.5 cents to the dollar. The sources close to the negotiation say the foreign bondholders want 56.5 cents to the dollar and no grace period with bond interest starting in September. Argentina has $324 billion in debt or about 90% of its GDP a result of mismanagement of the finances happening in recurring fashion in the country, several times in the last 4 decades.