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On World Soil Day DW.com provides this reminder about how important soil is to our life. It is a reminder too of the all things that are really important during the pandemic. Few remember the words of FDR in 1937 during the Dust Bowl days in America when overplowing and displacement of prairie grasslands that anchored the topsoil reduced once-fertile plains to parched, barren wasteland that were swept by dust storms. This was brought to life in Steinbeck's novel Grapes of Wrath. American president Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) said in 1937 that "a nation that destroys its soil, destroys itself."   This is true for India and all parts of the world, now more than ever. The promotion of ancient grains by Mr. Modi in India helps in the way that crops can be varied so that the soil can regenerate itself, and is not drained of nutrients with one or two crops such as rice and wheat. A 2015 study by University of Sheffield in UK showed that one third of the world's arable land  was lost to pollution and erosion in the last 40 years. That study says it takes 500 years to form one inch of topsoil. Countries like India cannot afford land degradation and Modi's emphasis on improved practices in agriculture away from pesticides and careful use of chemical fertilizer, with natural substitutes in traditional agriculture taking precedence, cannot come at a better time. Healthy soils also create carbon sinks storing greenhouse gases and reducing climate change. A square meter of soil can contain 10,000 different species of worms, insects, bacteria and fungi, with a single gram home to a billion bacteria. Rich fertile earth that nourishes ecosystems is a world apart from the dust storm swept land that led to crop failures in Depression period America, leading to farmers migrating and poverty, Some of the agricultural practices that promote biodiversity are more labor intensive, and suited to India, and can actually increase agricultural production. With the added advantage of produce being organic. It can increase crop yields through better biodiversity, to yield 2.3 billion metric tons of additional crop yields per year worldwide, worth 1.24 trillion euros, (imagine that) according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, cited by DW.com. For Indian farmers this is a great opportunity in agriculture to improve agriculture and increase incomes. It is also an opportunity for farmers everywhere, in Europe, America, other parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa. ...

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Saudi Arabia's strategic moves at the OPE pricing meeting in Nov. 2014. Saudis push for keeping the production levels as they are, not making any cuts. Analysts say the Saudis are aware other OPEC countries and other producers outside OPEC such as Russia, are not likely to make cuts in production as they face severe budget constraints- especially Venezuela, Iran, Russia. In this situation they have decided to take a wait and see approach to see where prices are headed in coming months. A price of $60 for Brent crude is likely to lead to cuts, according to some analysts.

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Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University economist, author of the well researched book on the 2008 financial crisis, "This Time Is Different," gives his thoughts on the economic prospects for the U.S under the new Trump administration. He says 4% GDP growth and 3% inflation is possible temporarily for a while with stimulus policies, less regulation, and increased private investment. After 8 years of not investing in much needed infrastructure because of concerns about the deficit, the timing is right for such investments, especially as the economic effects of the crisis of 2008 gradually fade.  This is about taking advantage of ultra low interest rates to invest in infrastructure. He says it helps that Trump policies are pro-business. He sees drawbacks as the stimulus program adds a 25% increase with extra debt, adding $5 trillion over 10 years, but adds that for many years Nobel prize winning economist Krugman and others have said that there is good reason to increase borrowing to invest, and this is now being tried. Inflation remains an uncertainty- if there are large quantities of underutilized and unemployed resources it would raise prices less than its effect to increase output. The reverse would apply if the U.S. economy is closer to full capacity. One factor that would help- increasing confidence for business and increasing investment. Against this what he calls optimistic view or spin, is the idea of mistakes under a Trump administration, errors made and a degree of incompetence which he says is a real possibility. Overall his view is that some risks are appropriate now, and from his deep study of financial crises sees the slow growth of the last 8 years a result of a financial crisis that now begins to fade, creating the possibility of higher growth under prudent policies.  ...

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A 150 year old tradition of making pomengranate sauce on Turkey's Mediterranean coast is shown in this delightful video by NHK Japan.

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Citigroup remains extraordinarily leveraged, with tangible leverage at 47 times tangible common equity. JP Morgan's is 26 times and Goldman's is 21 times. The government's two preferred shares capital injections of $45 billion does not reinforce the common stock, which fell 20% on the 14 January, 2009, and the discarding of the universal bank structure this week does not adequately address the root problem of problem mortgage related assets and excessive leverage. The government's agreeing to to take a large share of losses on $306 billion of problem assets helps, but with the leverage being so high significant problems remain. So what are the options. Reducing leverage to where J.P. Morgan Chase is would take $35 billion in common equity, something that would make the government the owner of Citibank, as Citibank's market capitalization on January 14, 2009 was $25 billion. The risk of doing this would be that other large bank stocks also fall steeply as the market prices in a similiar outcome. And there are political considerations as giving capital to banks is not popular with so little bank lending to show constituents. The capital needs of Bank of America as it completes the acquisition of Merrill further complicates the picture. But stopgap moves like additional loss sharing agreements will leave Citbank's problems still unresolved. ...

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Rattner looks with alarm at recent figures showing that of 2.65 million jobs created in the U.S. in 2015, only 30,000 were in manufacturing. He reflects on growth in manufacturing with the recovery in automobile manufacturing between 2009- 2013 - during this period employment in the U.S. auto industry went up by 23 percent to 690,000, and employment in Mexico's auto industry went up by 60 percent to 589,000, showing much faster growth overseas. Manufacturing has also experienced decline in private sector wages of 0.8% since 2009, with auto industry wages down 12.7 percent, says Rattner.

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Scholz of Germany and Xi of China meet for private talks at the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2024. Efforts are made to avoid tit for tat tariffs on EV's and settle Ukraine war.

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An intense debate is taking place as Spain's agricultural regions face prolonged drought. The Valencian Community and Alcoy depend on rain and in drought conditions can lose 100% of crops. Murcia, Alicante and Almeria in the south east get water from local rivers, desalinated water and from the river Tagus. About 40% of water comes from desalinated water and diversion of water from the River Tagus hundreds of kilometres further north. Irrigation helps farmers plant organic lemons in what was once a dry arid region, and drip dry irrigation conserves water. The Spanish government is planning to limit the drop in the levels of the Tagus river to conserve water in the river which would reduce water to the south east around Murcia and Almeria. This region is considered to be the vegetable garden of Europe.

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Doctor are suffering from a "demoralization syndrome" says Eric Reinhart, physician at Northwestern University. He sites one study that shows universal access to health care in America could have prevented at least 338,000 deaths during the pandemic. Overwork comes from physicians retiring from the healthcare workforce in large numbers. In 2021 117,000 physicians retired and only 40,000 physicians joined the workforce. Another 20% will retire in 5 years. Burnout itself comes from a realization that the system is failing its people and you are working within it without the social and cultural narratives that supported previous generations of physicians. It is these narratives of honesty and service that are the essential parts of the human condition that are lacking without access to good health care for all the people and the education to promote good health.

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President Biden says he opposed reducing minimum sentences for crimes in Washington D.C. such as carjackings, as proposed by a new law in D.C. Biden says Republican efforts to block that legislation would bring that to his desk and he would not veto the Republican proposal blocking reducing sentences. Crime is up 40% in Washington D.C say police. In the New York election for Congress, and in the recent Chicago mayoral election crime was an issue for Republicans leading to losses for Democrats and for Lori Lightfoot in Chicago. Biden wants to focus on the major issues for workers and families in the country, on infrastructure, jobs, inflation, and the US economy, and not let his plan for America's renewal lose focus because Republicans are able to make crime an issue.

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Mark Landler of the NYT says about the return of Boris Johnson as PM of Britain after 45 days of Truss- it is at once both incredible and inevitable. It would give a sense of incredulity and become a rallying point for a demoralized Conservative party say some Conservatives, much as he has done throughout his political career.   Boris Johnson already has the support of 52 MP's and needs 100 in parliament to be nominated for PM again. If of 367 members of parliament one of the three candidates Mordaunt, Sunak or Johnson withdraws the election would then be decided by 160,000 members of the Conservative party with whom Boris Johnson is very popular. Others believe that it was Johnson who won the election by a landslide and it is Johnson who got the mandate. 

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The European Union is drafting a ban on oil imports from Russia, says this report in the NYT. The European Union now pays Russia about $1 billion every day for oil imports from Russia. Under chancellor Merkel Germany actually increased its dependence on Russian natural gas from 36% during Russian annexation of the Crimea to 55% today. In this way creating some of the conditions that emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine, creating over 4 million refugees and immense destruction. Oil revenues of this magnitude of about $1 billion a day from the European Union help finance and prolong the invasion with enormous cost of human life. The longer the war lasts it affects a grain producing region in Ukraine that would lead to world food scarcity and famine.

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 The average work has declined in Europe, and increased slightly in America. It is about one day a week less in Europe for the 5 largest European economies, according to the OECD. Shorter work hours set by employers and furloughs are affecting workers in Europe. This is because many European businesses used shorter working hours to avoid layoffs during the pandemic. 

Nearly 2 million Europeans are in furlough programs with governments making up the lost pay.

Working hours are less in Southern Europe because of a lack of full time work. About one third of workers in France and half in Spain and Italy would like to work more hours but cannnot find the extra hours. In Germany one fourth of workers choose to work less than 30 hours a week by choice.

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President Biden visits the Polish town of Rzeszow close to the Polish border with Ukraine. It serves as the headquarters of the 82nd Airborne Division and Us operations to supply weapons and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The Russian offensive met with stiff resistance and incurred high casualties in Ukraine with this WSJ report showing 40,000 casualties in the 150,000 Russian invasion force, making it less effective. 
Russia appears to have scaled down its objectives to focus on the separatist Donbass region in the east. The offensive on Kviv, Odessa and Kharkiv is stalled with stiff resistance. About 10 million people have been uprooted.  3.7 million people fled Ukraine, with 2.2 million crossing into Poland.

The US has warned that it would respond if Russia attempted to use chemical weapons. 

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The chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, India's largest state with population of 250 million people talks about the establishment for the first time of the rule of law in the state. Under different state ministries since the time of Jawaharlal Nehru who was from the Allahabad region in the state, Uttar Pradesh has lacked in effective rule of law. Building of infrastructure in the state, Swacch Bharat, and the many projects of the federal government, are creating a new sense of hope for the future for the young generation.

Here the chief minister of the state says 450,000 new jobs were created and given impartially, Uttar Pradesh made a good place for investment, security with rule of law established, and good governance provided over the last 4.5 years. 

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Meticulous preparations in France for the Olympics. This report shows Macron at the Olympics Aquatics Centre built at cost of 188 million euros. The budget in 2012 Olympics in London overspent by 200%, France will do it for about 20% overspend, says the Sports Minister. Macron says "Everything is a cause for vigilance and attention, nothing is a cause for worry or paralysis, that is my and our state of mind." When the Olympics open on July 26 this year it will be on the river Seine, with hundreds of flotilla boats. It is a unique effort as even the housing complex was built so that after the Olympics are over the housing could be reused to serve residents of a poorer neglected suburb of Paris. The river Seine is being cleaned up for swimming

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The Seagreen wind farm in the windy North Sea waters off Scotland begins production this week. It is a 3 billion pound project of SSE Renewables and TotalEnergies of France located 17 miles off the Angus Coast of eastern Scotland. Production is 1.1 gigawatts of electricity in the first phase enough to power 1 million homes. It is the world's deepest fixed bottom windfarm- the deepest foundation to be installed in December will be 59 metres below sea level. 

Its location near the old oil and gas capital of Aberdeen, Scotland, shows how the renewable energies acceleration is giving a new life to the region. Seagreen uses new renewables technology because of the rocky difficult conditions in the North Sea. SSE Renewables is a London based company that has $12.5 billion in investments in renewable energy.

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The Guardian looks at food poverty in the UK in 2022. About 800,000 children living in poverty in the UK do not qualify for free school meals. The rise in the price cap for electricity and gas this winter to 3549 pounds for the year from October means many homes will have to choose between heating and food. Energy price regulator Ofgem has allowed a 80% rise in the UK energy price cap. In Britain only children whose parents earn less than 7400 pounds are eligible after year 2 of school.

The energy price jump in UK of this type is unusual for the major countries of Europe. In France the price of energy is capped and Germany offers  financial support for energy bills for low income people. 

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This time there is less exposure for foreign investors as the Turkish lira drops because Turkish holdings were reduced. Turkey bondholdings have come down by half and holding of Turkey stocks down by 40%. The decline of the lira also reduced Turkish assets in benchmark emerging market indexes - in MSCI to 0.2%, and in JPMorgan's bond index to 1.1% from 5%. 

So far the situation in Turkey has not spread to other emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil. With the Fed looking at raising interest rates earlier than planned, slower growth in China that takes in developing country commodity exports, emerging market assets are under some pressure. The WSJ Dollar Index was at a 15 month high on Nov. 24 and continues to be close to this.

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Pokhara airport Nepal cost about $200 million but it does not get international flights from India which make it unsustainable. On the 10th anniversary of China's Belt and Road which has invested $1 trillion in development projects in poor countries of Asia and Africa, NYT's Wakabayashi, Sharma and Fu look at the China project that built a new international airport at Pokhara. CMAC initially submitted a bid for $305 million about twice what it would otherwise cost says this report, which was lowered to $216 million. Nepal signed a 20 year agreement with China. Only Chinese firms would be used in construction. A quarter of the loans at no interest. The rest a loan at 2% interest with repayment starting in 2026 from the Export Import Bank of China. 

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Claire Cain Miller of NYT looks at how Americans feel about the economy. It is shaped mainly by the cost of living crisis. Over half of Americans feel housing is unaffordable. And most Americans see prices as way too high at retail stores, for food and clothing, and do not see that president Biden has helped increase their wages through his support for the labor movement. Another aspect of this is that even though Biden has brought changes in wages and reduced inflation to 2-3% from 10%, the American people are feeling the effects of three decades of neglect of infrastructure, public services, and manufacturing under prevailing free market economic theory; that caused the disruption in living standards with the 2009 financial crisis, and the shift of manufacturing to China that devastated whole communities.

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Levelling up is proving to be a false promise of the Conservatives. Where the money is coming from and how much and where it is going answers the question in America for Biden. Fair taxation is key, a strong economy is key for Biden. Fair taxation supports trillions in public investment that in turn generate private investment. In the second quarter of 2023 business investment was up 56% in Biden America, about $1 trillion with more in the pipeline.  The Conservatives fail on both and have no plan for step by step action that fits needs and opportunities in the economy as Biden has. Getting equal share of the fruits of labour to all Britons is never going to happen under trickle down economics of the Trump or Tory kind. That much is clear as daylight.

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Republican Speaker Johnson is setting Saturday April 20, 2024 votes in the US Congress for Ukraine-Israel aid in a weekend vote, as Israel and Ukraine face growing threats. Basically the bill Democrats passed in the Senate gets split up into 3 parts for that $95 billion in aid bill to be voted on individually for each part separately for Ukraine, for Israel, for Taiwan. A fourth bill would be for Ukraine aid as a loan, and a measure leading to national ban on TikTok.

"We're not the world's policeman, but we are going to do the right thing. And I think Congress is going to take an important stand."

"We have improved the process and policy. Every member of Congress gets to vote his conscience."

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Astrid Prange says the movement started by Luther against paying for penalties for sins being paid for by indulgences, and seeing faith as a gift from God, helped the renewal of the church and Christianity. It came at the time of the printing press, touching a chord with people in Germany. Luther was not a revolutionary, as he was conservative and principled, his goal being to go back to the Christian church's origins. Prange says that in this he is typically German. On October 31, 2016, Pope Francis joins Protestants in Lund, Sweden, for the Lutheran World Federation's celebration of 500 years since the Reformation. Luther would have welcomed this, considering what Pope Francis brings to the Catholic world with tolerance, spiritual renewal and reviving the original teachings of the Christian church.