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China's population drops and fertility rates drop for a decade now- the median age is 40 years for China compared to 30 for India. Those who think India can never catch up to China lose sight of these factors- a 10 year gap is huge provided India can take it and run. India is moving from a corruption prone, governance deficit, investment deficit, engineers deficit, technology access deficit country to a country that is able to score well in governance, capital, labor and technology eliminating deficits in each sector the way China did.. The younger age China enjoyed in 1990 of 25 years median age when it started industrialization is now being transferred to India in 2026. Why is this important? A younger population with abundant capital, abundant labor, abundant technology access is the ticket to industrialization on a massive scale. India today is on the cusp of massive changes. What happens now is that the computerization and software is also getting more advanced that will accelerate India's Vikshit Bharat effort. This is why Chancellor Merz joining Modi at the Kite festival and committing Germany to a partnership with India, with it the European Union, is so significant today, as it will deliver for both India and Germany, Europe. China births drop from about 10 million to about 8 million and birth rate drops from 6.77 to 5.63 births per thousand people. China population now drops to 1,405 from 1,408 million people. Deaths rose from 10.93 million to 11.31 million.   ...

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Hillary Clinton responds to a question from a 15 year old school girl in a Pennsylvania suburb of Haverford, who spoke about the damage done by Trump's crude comments about women. The girl Brennan Leach, asked Hillary Clinton, how Mrs. Clinton could help girls understand that they are much more than their looks. Clinton told the girl that "many women online were being bullied," and that this had to stop. She told the largely female crowd in Haverford gym that "Lets be the best we can be. Lets be proud of who we are."  The girl Brennan had lost a friend to suicide last year, and was especially concerned about the effect on girls of bullying at a period of middle and high school, which is a sensitive time for girls growing up. Trump had made many disparaging comments about women during the entire election campaign in 2016, without the kind of media sense of shock that one would have expected for such comments during previous moments in American history. ...

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Reeves says Reagan ever the imaginative politician seized on the idea of "supply side " economics of a not so well known economist Arthur Laffer. Ideas that were simple and appealing- you reduce marginal tax rates and generate higher revenues. This worked for some time with higher economic growth for a number of years, but the arithmetic of higher spending and borrowing and lower taxes would eventually lead to large deficits at the end of Reagan's term, just as price controls worked for awhile and then led to a surge in prices at the end of Nixon's term. When Reagan became President the deficit was 2.5%, when he left office eight years later the deficit was 5% of the economy. Interest payments on debt jumped to $169 billion in 1988, from $69 billion in 1981. Reeves says American politicians know so little about economics, to which it could be added, winning presidential and congressional elections is always a big part of the picture when it comes to economic policy. Which is why Nixon even with Milton Friedman as an advisor shifted to Keynesian policies of higher fiscal spending in 1971, and why Reagan turns to intuitively appealing and effective in the short term policies of having it all- higher spending, growth, and lower taxes. During the years of the two Bush presidencies and the Clinton administration the success of Reagan policies leads to a general sense as Vice President Cheney put it referring to Reagan and Treasury Secretary Baker's belief, that "deficits don't matter." Which leads us to the current situation where 2012 presidential election politics again frame the terms of the debate on deficits and budgets, only now the deficit is much higher and on a unsustainable path. ...

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Italy's prime minister, Monti, says he will submit his "irrevocable" resignation, after about 1 year in office, following the withdrawal of support from Berlusconi's People of Liberty party. He told president Giorgio Napolitano he would make an effort to pass the budget and a financial stability law to defer "the consequences of a government crisis" before turning in his resignation.

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WSJ's John Lyons interviews Brazil's finance minister Guido Mantega in May 2012. Mantega says Brazil is following a"developmental economics" model for growth, which is more appropriate for Brazil. This includes credit expansion and loans to the auto industry by state owned bank Banco de Brasil in 2012, in an effort to revive growth. He sees the 20% decline in the value of the Brazilian currency, the real, helping increase exports.

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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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Prime Minister Medvedev of Russia proposes banning advertising of cigarettes and blames cigarette companies for targeting children and women. He says Russia had unfortunately not calculated the risks of investment by foreign cigarette companies. A ban on smoking in public spaces will go into effect in 2015. Each year he says cigarettes take a toll of 400,000 lives- "it works out that each year an entire large city disappears from the earth due to tobacco.:

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Under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) executive order of 2012, a group of immigrants brought to the country as children can have temporary status to stay and work in the U.S. In 2012 this was restricted to children brought in under the age of 16, with a maximum age of 30. The program was called "Dreamers." Under president Obama's executive order this will be changed to children brought in under the age of 18, with no maximum age. The number of immigrants goes up from 1.2 million in 2012 to 1.9 million with this particular change in 2014. A new group of parents of children who are citizens or legal residents residing in the U.S. for more than 5 years adds another 3.3 million to this number, with an additional 100,000 for parents of Dreamers. The total 1.9 million children and 3.4 million parents would be 5.3 million given new status to stay and work in the U.S. The 5.3 million will not be eligible for subsidies and for the Affordable Healthcare Act assistance. All will be required to pass security checks. This leaves about 6 million, including farm workers and other undocumented or illegal immigrants not touched by the new executive order. President Obama is expected to make the announcement of the executive order on Nov. 20, 2014, in Nevada, a state with a large Hispanic population. On the question of legal authority for the executive order, Prof. Stephen Yale-Loehr, an expert on immigration law at Cornell says the U.S. president does have broad authority to decide which group should get a reprieve from deportations. The decision to exclude benefits of government subsidies and subsidized healthcare was made to appeal to increased support of the American public for the executive order. ...

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Martin Feldstein on the U.S. economy in 2014 and the risks of the U.S. Federal Reserve tackling the economy on its own with monetary policy, without Congress taking on the task of policies to promote economic growth. Feldstein points out the 3.6% GDP growth estimate for the third quarter 2013 does not look that good considering that half of this is from buildup of inventory. GDP growth is about 2% as net result. With paralysis of Congress and the Executive branch the Fed's policy of huge buildup of long term bonds to reduce short term interest rates to zero and stimulate stock and home prices, he describes as the only game in town. The problem is that the size of the effect of increase in consumer spending from this increase in household wealth is small and not enough to contribute to significant GDP growth. The risks of this approach are that it contributes to destabilizing the economy as investors buy risky securities and bid up prices. He suggests a five year $1 trillion infrastructure development program, including defense, as a stimulus Congress should consider. Not the kind of stimulus that happened after the 2008 crisis. If not enough investment ready projects are available as in 2008 that will contribute to future growth, Congress should take another one year to prepare for this before moving forward. Debt reduction is key, and debt as a percentage of GDP should be reduced and set on a path to go where it was before 2008 to about 40%, deficits to below 2% of GDP. This should be done by slowing growth of Social Security and Medicare, and increasing revenues by limiting subsidies in the tax code that Feldstein as pushed for since 2010....

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good third of the regional banks won't make it he says and this is around the corner in 2009.

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This televised debate of Republican presidential candidates focussed on Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. Rick Perry said he would impose sanctions on Iran's central bank, something the Obama administration is reluctant to do because it might disrupt international oil markets. Romney and Gingrich said they would use military action if other measures failed. Huntsman called for a complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, saying: "This nation's future is not in Afghanistan. this nation's future is not in Iraq." Ron Paul said hw opposed military interventions in conflicts overseas. Perry and Gingrich said U.S. aid to Pakistan should be suspended because Pakistan was not a reliable partner.

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Anecdotal evidence such as huge jewelry sales in Hong Kong and smaller repatriation of funds earned overseas by Chinese companies suggests outflow of funds from China is picking up. Also the quarterly pace of accumulation in foreign exchange reserves dropped by 74% over the course of 2008. In he 4th quarter 2008 it reached $40.45 billion, lowest point since 2004. Chinese government may be slowing its purchase of Treasuries. And policy may be shifting away from letting the yuan to appreciate as export industries are hit hard by lower foreign demand.

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Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker has opinion about the financial crisis that is deeply felt. He wants the wall that separates banks that take in federally insured deposits from the public separated from the risky trading activities of investment banking houses. That would essentially put us back to the situation that existed before Glass Steagall Act of 1933 was revoked in the 1999. The lessons of the thirties apply today. Says Volcker "people say I am old-fashioned and banks can no longer be seaprated from nonbank activity, but that argument brought us back to where we are today." The Obama advisers like Geithner and Summers are close to the bankers- see the links to Geithner and Summers- and believe that extensively regulating the banks would prevent the banks from engaging in risky practices. However as this reporter Louis Uchitelle of the NYT has not pointed out, the problem is that this is more easily said than done. The very fact that there were close ties between Geithner and Summers and the bankers during the Clinton Administration and Geithner as head of the New York Fed under the Bush administration, and the aggressive lobbying by the investment banks like Goldman and others who are now banks to water down any regulation on derivatives trading and on other supervision, can only lead to a situation where neither Volcker's solution or the Obama people's solution is put into effect. THis will only invite another crisis. With the public anger even worse as the bonuses and compensation from trading profits by Goldman and other banks come through cheap money created by the Fed- see links- for the purpose of addressing the financial crisis. Volcker would separate JP Morgan and Bear Stearns trading operations and separate Merrill from BofA, and Goldman would revert from abank holding company to a investment banking house. Volcker believes that the pay on Wall Street "has gotten grotesquely large." Volcker believes that the separation of deposit taking institutions from investment banking would reduce trading profits and consequently automatically reduce these large bonuses. So is Volcker being ignored by the Obama administration, even as his glow helped the Obama people win public support as a better steward of the economy than McCain during the election campaign? During the crisis Volcker headed the president's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Today he is rarely seen in his Washington office, he talks to administration officials mostly on the phone, at 82 he is not knocking on doors, and the advisory board has been assigned to look at the tax law on overseas corporate profits. Volcker agrees with most of the Obama plan on financial regulation including higher capital requirements and and pay guidelines, but if this is not enacted because of lobbying by bankers then the nation will have the benefit of neither the Volcker Plan or the Obama Plan. ...

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There is only one way to interpret this. Putin and Russian influence have calmed down the Israel Iran war. DJT opening up discussions and talking to both Russia and China has created a sense in both countries that their vital interests are with the US, China on a trade agreement with the US, and Russia for a settlement of the Ukraine war on terms that it sees as fair. There is the issue of nuclear non-proliferation on which US, Russia, China, India, Germany and the EU, and the rest of the world are in agreement which meant action to end Iran's nuclear program. Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister and looked for a way to end the war. Putin said: “This gives us a chance to…think together about how it would be possible to get out of this situation,” said Putin. From the point of view of a safer planet Biden's period of not talking to China during the balloon incident, and not talking to Russia with a single minded focus on Ukraine conflict, can be seen as not the way a responsible world power should act. DJT's emphasis to end the wars in the Middle East yet standing firm on Israel's right to exist and the non proliferation of nuclear weapons, and working to end the war on Ukraine by puting pressure on all countries, is proving to be an approach that gives all world powers a chance to reflect truly on their obligations to their peoples and the people of the world. To keep their and the world's sanity and composure while pursuing national aspirations. ...

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One of the lessons of the pandemic is to take society back to basic priorities such as wellness, wellbeing, lifestyles that promote wellness, eating right and exercizing. During the last three decades obesity has emerged as a problem in the U.S. and Europe and in all parts of the world. It is simply harder to fight the virus carrying on so much extra weight. Much needs to be done in school with education on food in children's books and in classrooms.

Eating more fruits and vegetables, ancient and healthy grains is a must do for all. To do this the supply chain of locally produced healthy foods has to function well , and more acreage has to be devoted to get the supplies we need.

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The pact of competitiveness is designed to bring a closer integration of the eurozone. It includes proposals for increasing the retirement age to 67, ending indexation of wages to inflation, and involvement of other eurozone countries in controlling out of control deficits in some countries. Germany sees this as necessary to convince the German public that financial responsibility is being exercized by countries in budget crises that get help from Germany. This may buy time but it does not come to terms with the reality of Greece being insolvent already, which may be true also for Ireland and Portugal. Some experts see the need for debt restructuring, and the need to start early, especially if Germany is unwilling to make large transfers to these countries.

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It is a moment in the Senate that Majority leader Schumer says will be remembered years from now. A total of 65 Senators vote to support an aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and humanitarian aid, all Democrats and 18 Republicans as a group led by Senator Mitch McConnell, the Minority Leader. The Republican Senators include Senator WIcker the senior member on the Armed Services Committee, military veterans, and centrists. Voicing strong support were Senator Tillis of North Carolina and Moran of Kansas on the Senate floor. Tillis said "there is a common conviction that if we fail on this vote, if we don't support Ukraine, this is not bluster, not hyperbole- bad things will happen." Tillis also said that after the earlier vote to break a filibuster by Republican colleagues -"I slept like a baby last night." The list includes senior Republican leaders Cronyn of Texas, both senators from Iowa including Grassley, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Mullin of Oklahoma, Rounds of South Dakota, Thune of South Dakota, Todd Young of Indiana. In terms of age and experience this may be the most senior and most experienced Republican leaders from over half of the traditionally Republican states. ...

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James Pressley, in this review of Joseph Stiglitz's new book- "Freefall: America, Free Markets and the Sinking of the World Economy," says Stiglitz's advice should be taken into account by the new administration. Stiglitz, says, the Obama administration has so far offered no alternative vision of capitalism and is only "mudddling through." It is simply following the course the Bush administration had taken. And has retained as key economic advisors, Geithner, Ben Bernanke and Summers, all from previous administration's economic teams, thus largely removing the possibillity of serious change. And by doing so, says Stiglitz, the Obama administration has "squandered the opportunity," to fix things that needed to be fixed in the economy. Stiglitz, says Pressley, urges Americans to think what kind of America they want to see, what kind of society they want to make, and then what kind of economy will get them there. Stiglitz wants to see banks back to where they they only make loans, and act as an efficient payments system, and not engaged in risk taking. At a meeting of the American Economic Association, Stiglitz, presented a paper that suggested that between globalization for integrating world financial markets and keeping them separate, the latter is the better course. Financial markets he believes, need circuit breakers to not bring down the whole system....

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Bernanke's defense of the action of the Fed's monetary policy making committee, on November 3, 2010, (with a vote of 10-1) to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasury securities over the next 8 months. His defense focusses on the prospects of deflation- how low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), that can create a long period of economic stagnation. In addition, with low and falling inflation, Bernanke sees spare capacity in the US that can be utilized to reduce the number of jobless people. He points to the rise in stock prices and fall in long term interest rates in anticipation of the Fed's action, as evidence that this Fed move would improve financial conditions. Lower mortgage rates would make housing more affordable, higher stock prices would increase consumer wealth, confidence and spending. Spending would lead to higher incomes and profits for economic expansion, from this viewpoint. The situation in November 2010, was a deepening housing slump anticipated for 2011, gridlock after the 2010 midterm elections and no agreement on additional stimulus for 2011, the need to rebalance the global economy lacking cooperation from China (with China increasing imports and reducing exports and the US increasing exports and reducing imports). Fed's Bernanke does not mention these factors, and only hints at the gridlock towards the end of the statement. This Fed action will push the dollar lower, just as efforts to improve exports and the trade balance are underway. The Fed's committee sees the risks of commodities inflation as an acceptable risk in the current situation, and the use of a cautious approach assessing the purchase program regularly as sufficient measure of safety. As to difficulties of the unwinding of these policies, the Fed sees present danger outweighing the risks of no action. For emerging markets such as Turkey, India, Australia and other countries seeing even more inflows of capital, the risks are left to these countries to manage. The central banks of India and Australia moved to increase interest rates at the same time that the Fed made its move....

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David Leonhardt talks to Raghuram Rajan, Mr Obama, and other experts on how the government should act after the stress test results are announced. Has the government toned down the results of the stress tests, and is it paying too much deference to Wall Street. Leonhardt put this question to Obama, why he asked his advisers were key figures of Mr Rubin's inner circle, Mr Geithner and Mr Summers, who like Rubin are inclined to have too much deference to Wall Street. Obama's answer was that he had other advisers outside of Summers and Geithner. Which wasn not convincing for Leonhardt considering the key positions Geithner and Summers hold. Rajan of the University of Chicago who anticipated the crisis, was not too reticent to criticize Greenspan policies and was in turn criticized for that by Summers, told Leonhardt that certain things may be presented as holy cows not to be touched for fear of something bad happening, but until you find out you cannot be sure. This applies to the bank rescue plans. Should the creditors of banks be asked to take haircuts or swap debt for equity. This may be necessary as there just isn't enough money in TARP - $130 billion left in TARP funds versus the $1 trillion that the IMF thinks American banks may need for solvency in the next 2 years- to do the bank rescue operations. Should the administration consider this a holy cow as Wall Street is suggesting, or come to its own conclusions independently of what Wall Street is saying. Wall Street has to look at it from its vantage point out of sheer necessity, not from what is the best option for someone in the administration's position, considering all the facts without any preconceived ideas or notions....

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Spain's deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 6.0 percent for 2011. The target set by the Rajoy government is for the deficit to be lowered to 4.4% in 2012. Newly elected prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, told parliament that the "outlook could not be darker," with the economy expected to contract in the fourth quarter and in 2012. Rajoy, plans to introduce emergency budget measures on Dec. 30, 2011, labor market changes in the first quarter of 2012, and a banking sector cleanup in the first half of 2012. Savings of 16.5 billion euros will be needed to meet the 4.4% of GDP deficit target for 2012. Rajoy is studying the situation before announcing budget cuts. He affirmed that pensions which were frozen in 2011, will be raised in 2012 in line with inflation. He enjoys the support of France's president Sarkozy and German chancellor Merkel, as all three leaders are heads of conservative parties in Europe, and has excellent rapport with them going back to the period when Rajoy led the opposition party in Spain....

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Silbersweig of the Brigham and Women's Hospital makes a convincing case for the importance of liberal arts and philosophy studies for pursuing a career in medicine. His studies extend from philosophy at Dartmouth to interdisciplinary studies in psychiatry, neurosciences, at Cornell Medical College, to work in these fields and the physical sciences at Brigham. He says the study of philosophy helped him to ask questions, to work and think in unique ways. Interdisciplinary studies are important combined with interdisciplinary work between people from different but related fields, says Silbersweig. Students have to be willing to be explorers and have the broad and rigorous education to make this possible.

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The Rupee is moving close to 80 to the US dollar with increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. The IMF expects the Rupee to go past 94 to the dollar in 2029. India's Reserve Bank is interested in carefully managing the steady decline so that business decisions can be made with some measure of stability. The weaker rupee will help increase exports at a time when India's is raising its logistics capabilities and creating the capabilities on the ground that will give India a key role in the new supply chain the US and the EU are building in Asia.

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The fast food industry in US relies on the franchise model which has been deeply affected by depressed wages, poor working conditions and other worker abuses. Governor Gavin Newsom signs into law on Labor Day 2022, the FAST Recovery Act which established a state council tasked with setting wage standards for the entire franchise and food industry. Workers will now get a seat at the table to set standards for wages, and health and safety standards for the industry. Wages will be set at $22 per hour starting next year for about half a million workers in the franchise and fast food industry in California.