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With a turnout of 80% Argentines voted in favor of the socialist Peronist party after just 4 years of government of centre right party Cambiemos, headed by Mauricio Macri, a former mayor of Buenos Aires. Alberto Fernandez was elected with 48% of the vote to Macri's 40%. People in rural areas and in  poorer parts of Buenos Aires were hard hit by the economic crisis and rise in fuel costs, giving the socialists over 50% of the vote. The failed economic policies of Mr. Macri with overborrowing building up debt of $115 billion in foreign currency denominated bonds, lack of prudent budgetary discipline, leading to inflation of 50% led to his failure to win a second term. A $57 billion bailout from the IMF which is highly unpopular in Latin America failed to stem the drop in the pesos value from 10 pesos to the dollar when Macri assumed office to 60 pesos by the time of the election. A drought in 2018 reduced exports of soyabeans, and a third of currency reserves about $20 billion were used by the central bank to defend the peso. The socialist administration returns to power under the leadership of Mr. Fernandez, a former the chief of staff of president Nestor Kirchner, Kirchner and Fernandez inherited a similar crisis resulting in deep depression in 2003. Mr. Fernandez left the administration after Nestor Kirchner's death in 2010 and Christina Kirchner headed the Peronist party till 2015 winning 2 terms in office as president. Higher social spending under the Peronist party and high commodity prices for soyabeans exports with demand from China helped restore the economy under the Kirchner administrations, later leading to higher budget deficits by 2015 that Mr. Macri inherited. A failure to adjust spending early followed by severe austerity cuts in fuel and electricity prices hurt the urban poor and people in rural areas leading to the return of the socialist party and the lost hope for Cambiemos (Lets Change) to free markets that Macri had generated in 2015. ...

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In over a decade after Mandela the A.N.C. under Jacob Zuma sees its vote drop from 62.5% to below 50%. The opposition Democratic Alliance wins 27% of the vote and the A.N.C. loses in the important cities of Johannesburg, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth. South Africa's urbanization is proceeding rapidly with the country 65% urban today. In this situation the country is seeing a political situation of racially diverse cities voting against the A.N.C. under Zuma's administration, which is seen as corrupt and mismanaging the economy. Zuma is seeing his support now left mostly in the rural areas. He is also losing the support of women. Mmsi Maimane is a young black lay preacher, who leads the Democratic Alliance, a party with its origins in liberal politics during the Apartheid era, with participaton of whites, coloreds, Asians and blacks in urban areas.

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A professor from Harvard's Kennedy school describes the Hungarians failure to remember the 1956 Hungarian uprising crushed by the Soviet Union as migrants suffering enormous hardship make their way to Keleti train station in Budapest, Hungary. The Orban government in Hungary refused to let migrants take trains to Austria and Germany. Chancellor Merkel said the Schengen Agreement allowing free movement itself was being called into question. The Orban government later relented and put migrants on buses to Vienna. Throughout this crisis as media showed pictures of the hardships suffered by migrants, and chancellor Merkel assured asylum for hundreds of thousands of migrants, Obama and Harper were silent on the issue. The appalling numbers tell the story, says Ignatieff- with about 1500 for the U.S. and 166 for the UK, according to news reports. He is very critical of Obama, Cameron and Harper, representing the U.S., UK, and Canada, for doing so little.

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Internet company valuations and IPO's in mid- 2012 reach the frenzied levels before the the tech bubble burst in 2000-2001.

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The Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities in the UK in its report published on March 29, 2021, says Britain has become a more open society and that racial inequalities in education and employment have narrowed. Bangladeshi, Indian and African backgrounds children are performing better across eight GCSE's using scores on average, than white British children, an amazing story. It says "this should be regarded as a model for white majority countries."  Much of this could be the result of strong families, ethic of hard work, help from the idea that hardship brings virtue, and single minded determination of families and children to excel in studies, showing that obstacles such as language and other economic barriers can not only be overcome but actually be a motivational influence. This should translate into more success in the workplace. The report says this is happening in the workplace with diversity in the professions of medicine, law and teaching, and shrinking pay gap with white population. Criticism persists and is true for the top of the public and private sectors, the report says. Yet it should be uppermost in mind that in terms of number of people benefitted it is important- that the process be strong at the ground level so that the talented individual can then move to the higher ranks. To do this the report says British employers should go for more "evidence-based alternatives" than let "unconscious bias training" prevail without quite realizing that this is happening in the absence of initiative. Much of what happens in Britain is also true for the US and other places with British based educational systems such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. In South Asia there are disadvantaged minorities because of old caste based inequalities and bias. There the problem also has its perverse forms in which politically motivated moves to assign quotas are made before the emphasis on education and investment in education for disadvantaged minorities. This is leading to a general decline in education in government or public schools and reliance on private sector schools to provide quality education. A process seen in Latin American countries such as Mexico and Brazil that also involves public sector unions and their control of who gets hired and how. The result is that huge problems not entirely visible like an iceberg that cripples ships or economies is happening in these countries, and the focus is almost entirely on the disparities in British schools where progress is actually being made with results, intentions backed by will to accomplish. ...

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The impact of foreclosure in one Detroit neighborhood called Boston-Edison, where Henry Ford once lived and how the residents who have a neighborhood association going back many years to the 1920's are coping. The human consequences of foreclosures for a neighborhood. How could either side win, the lenders or the borrowers in a foreclosure situation and the need for the government to step in and bring some sense to the whole thing before it sinks both and blights towns and neighborhoods across America. One home bought for $179,000 in April 2006 was sold in the Boston-Edison area for guess how much, $6,500. Which shows that by the time thieves who for the copper and metal mining of these homes can destroy tens of thousands of dollars in value in minutes, and the deterioration of the neighborhood with crime and boarded up looks, and the very presence of foreclosures on each street destroys enormous amounts of value so that in this case the bank and its lenders got how much, less than $6500 or less than 4% of its original price. Repeated all across America this just does not make sense. Just as it never made sense for those who benefitted from the housing boom to say that subprime lending was a good thing because it brought home ownership to the less well off. Only lending that is at rates that are reasonable and considers the borrowers true finances, and on ethical and fair terms can be good lending and only government regulation designed to be easily enforceable and keeps lenders responsible, can ensure that this happens, as a free market is not good for this sort of thing. And this is all the more true for lending to those who are less well of because their ability to screen these contracts and their wording is not adequate and their own understanding of their finances inadequate. Barclay's Capital estimates that there are 811,000 bank owned homes in the USA, up from 129,000 in 2006, and predicts that it will grow by 60% before peaking in late 2009. ...

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There is a mixed picture behind the drop in investment in new oil exploration. The IEA estimates that overall investment will be down 15-20% in 2009. The number of drilling rigs in use globally fell 32% in the year to April 2009, to 2055, according to Baker-Hughes, an oilfield services firm. In America the number of rigs in use is down by 50%, and OPEC countries are cancelling 35 big projects, according to the OPEC secretary general, Salem Al-Badri. Cambridge Energy Associates estimates that 5.5 million barrels a day of capacity additions may not take place in the next couple of years, which is a third of expected net increase by 2014. Examine this a bit more closely and you find that the oil majors despite lack of access to oil in inhospitable terrain or foreign countries, are still holding up well in investment. Exxon increased capital spending by 5% in the 1st quarter 2009, and Shell and Chevron plan to invest the same in 2009 as in 2008, $31 billion and $23 billion. BP plans to go from $21 billion to $20 billion. Canadian Tar Sands investments are being reevaluated in the light of prices, and smaller companies like Devon Energy are cutting back, for Devon from $9 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2009. From the national oil companies the investments are holding up in Saudi Arabia, whereas they are faltering in Russia and cash strapped Venezuela. Saudi Aramco recently completed a 5 year project increasing capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5 b/d at cost of $70 billion. And another $60 billion is set aside for more investments which will be less vigorously pursued as Saudis have 4.5m b/d of idle capacity after production cutbacks by OPEC. Petrobras plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion in the next 5 years in offshore discoveries challenged by deep waters and thick layers of salt. The oilfield services companies like Schlumberger are cutting back, with Schlumberger cutting investment in 2009 by 13% to $2.6 billion and shedding 5000 jobs. Baker Hughes shed 3000 jobs. Mature fields are also receiving less investment, so that the drop from mature fields will be 9.4% according to IEA instead of 7.7% projected earlier with larger investments. The picture described above shows investments by the Saudis, the majors, oil field services firms, investments in recovery improvements in mature fields, not in a precipitious decline. The picture is of cautious and careful investment and some pullbacks as the economies of the US suffered decline in GDP of 6% in the 1st quarter 2009 over prior year and the German and Japanese economies suffered decline of 15-16%. Even the most optimistic forecasts for China do not go above 8% for 2009. In the light of these growth estimates the moderate drop in investments in new oil exploration may match the moderation in growth in Asia and the drop in growth in the USA and Europe and Japan. The forecasts of steeply higher oil prices or spikes like those in 2007-2008 are based on the notion of a quick economic recovery. See the links to economic recovery on this. These links suggest that the current surge may not last as the basics for a recovery are weak. In the US foreclosures, toxic assets, housing, consumption and savings, and unemployment all indicate a weak economy for several years down the road. And it is this weakness that the oil investment exploration budgets may be responding to in amoderated manner. The latest sign of this weakness is the spread of foreclosures to prime borrowers with job losses, link NYT May 24, 2009. The Saudi king thinks that $75 is a fair price for oil. Current prices have taken oil to $60 a barrel, even as inventories remain strong with over 60 days of supply. No spikes like those in the past are realistic in this economic environment....

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Rebecca Solnit says the Biden administration has governed very well over the last three years, the Washington Post, NYT, WSJ are showing poor judgement and lack of civic duty in not considering what the two alternative visions of America are today as offered by the candidates in the 2024 election. On climate change alone the differences are vast and if nothing is done the results will be catastrophic with increasing risks of extreme heat, floods and other catastrophes. Because of this and all the work being done under Biden's leadership in manufacturing in America, in rebuilding its infrastructure, and in building leadership in science and chips, the Washington Post, the NYT, WSJ, and the television media have shown an extraordinary degree of incompetence. The Washington Post had a sample of its readers responses which we show today in Lyrarc. Of 5 letters from all parts of the country only one stated the Post's position, the rest all 4 wholeheartedly supported Biden and his overall record, his vision and competent administration. This itself shows that the president has the support of the American people and the Media has the lowest ratings in its entire history somewhere in the 20% level where it has languished for the last two decades as we pointed out in Movement for Global Literacy. ...

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Montes and Cordoba of the WSJ provide this exceptional account of corruption at the state level in Mexico. Ironically the very effort to reduce the power of centralized administration with PRI winning repeated elections and having a monopoly in power for many years, led to the decentralization and passing on power and money to the state governments in Mexico after the 1990's. But this was done without putting in the checks and balances required. Instead too much power was now concentrated in the hands of the state governments which appointed even the judges and officials at all levels including election bodies. Federal transfers of tax money to states increased 20 fold to $88 billion in 2016, according to this report.  The result 41 state governors faced corruption charges between 2000 and 2013, according to the Mexican Competitiveness Institute. This includes the state of Veracruz where state coffers are almost empty and there is no money to pay municipal bodies. The PRI governor of Veracruz Mr. Duarte supported president Pena Nieto, and was at 43 years age cited as the new face of the young PRI. This report  says he is nowhere to be found now that $2.5 billion in state funds cannot be verified. Other states are Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo, Coahuila, Sonora, where corruption charges remain. The Veracruz scandal is among the worst and is the focus of attention for the public in Mexico. At this point president Pena Nieto of PRI has about 12% popularity rating, lowest of any modern Mexican president.   ...

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Barney Frank, of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, is interviewed by the New York Times one year after the passage of the legislation. He says we did not punt anything, it was because the legislators couldn't get everything right that they set up the provision for extensive rule making. He would rather forget financial matters as they are not his strong point, he has learnt more about repos and derivatives than he ever wanted. Critics have pointed to the extensive rule making delegated to regulators in Dodd Frank as a major weakness. It makes Dodd-Frank as effective as the regulators want it to be, something that goes back to an earlier period before 2008 when lack of regulatory discipline led to the financial crisis. He gives the regulatory agencies CFTC and the S.E.C. good grades for writing some of the rules because of the difficult conditions they face. His main fear is the stalling by Republicans in Congress and efforts to weaken the law by crimping resources for the agencies. And he fears the Republicans with support from the banking industry see the 2012 presidential elections as an opportunity to reverse the legislation....

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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Both sides are presenting the issue differently creating confusion. Many Misconceptions- 1. The Department of Education did not exist before president Carter set it up in 1976. 2. It does not run Education in the US. It mostly administers student financial aid programs. These could be run by the Department of Treasury where they belong.  3. Reagan called the education department as creating "a bureaucratic boontoggle."  4. The goal of Republicans is to take education back to the states. Well run states can then run it better than by one agency setting rules and responsibility lying in the states anyway, but creating a perception of diffused responsibility so that no one can be held accountable for the woeful state of American education. Math and reading comprehension skills for students 8-15 years at different grade levels from 4th grade are dismal. US ranks low across developed countries in math and reading comprehension skills. 5. It is about sending education back to the states and parents where it belongs. Once states compete there will be an effort to  copy the initiatives of states delivering better results in math and reading comprehension. 6. Lyrarc Movement for Global Literacy is for creating high levels of ability in math and reading for children 7 to 16 years for strong foundational skills. 7. Everything starts with parents and a home that nurtures these skills and a home environment that is supportive and this can be possible across income groups given the motivation and seriousness. ...

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The 2009 budget of the Obama government has some optimistic assumptions built into it for the deficits in future years. For 2009 the GDP declines by 1.2%, for 2010 the GDP growth is 3.2%. With these assumptions its possible to bring the $1.75 trillion deficit in 2009 to less than $600 billion by 2012, and getting to that point requires GDP to rise by 4% a year by then. This is assuming the growth quickly returns to the growth rates of the 1990's. In one area the administrations' forecasts are more optimistic than the Fed's and may turn out to be too optimistic. The administration's assumption is for unemployment to average 7.9% in 2010 when it may be close to 9% or higher. For example Goldman Sachs economists expect the unemployment rate to be at 9.5% by late 2010. And Goldm,an's growth rate for 2010 is just 1.3%, and that also may prove to be optimistic whereas the budget assumes 3.2%. What all this means that money has to be spent on the priorities outlined by the President, but the most buck for the money has to be obtained because further outlays will be needed in future years. This is a very important point, and a lot of checks and transparency and careful monitoring of projects has to be put in place throughout 2009....