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The US China student exchange is very uneven- there are 270,000 Chinese students in the US and only 11,000 American students in China. This is a problem as this increases the misperceptions about China and reduces knowledge about China when there are common challenges of climate change, about keeping the global economy healthy, and reducing risks from other states such as Taiwan and Ukraine, and of failed states.

This report in the NYT still fails to recognize the importance to the US of the fentanyl challenge to American lives as it flows from China and Mexico to the US. This is at the root of the dismay in the US with China and Mexico today and of porous borders with Canada and Mexico that are a serious problem for America and its people.

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The U.S. ranked first in an annual survey of executives rating places with favorable prospects for foreign direct investment. The survey by consulting firm A.T. Kearney has questions for executives of 302 large companies, all with sales above $500 million, about how likely they are to invest in countries over 2013-2015. It was done in October and November of 2012. On a scale of 0 to 3, the U.S. scored 2.09, China 2.02, Brazil 1.97, Canada 1.86, India 1.85, followed closely by Australia and Germany at 1.83 and the UK at 1.81. Mexico and Singapore are at No. 9 and 10 with 1.77. The survey shows the U.S., and Mexico gaining, China and India slipping, and English speaking countries UK, Australia and Singapore, as part of the 6 that are English speaking of the top 10 countries. Brazil's hosting of the Olympics and World Cup helped it maintain its position. The emerging market countries performance has slipped further since the survey, including Brazil, and the U.S. has made further gains in investor sentiment. The unrest among young people in Turkey, India, China, and Brazil as seen in street protests and credit financed booms may have further affected investor sentiment. The increase in natural gas production, revival of the midwestern economies, and a recovering housing market have boosted the U.S. economic prospects compared to emerging markets and the eurozone....

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The comparison by Goldsmith and Moyn has picked the wrong Roosevelt. Only Washington in the war of independence, Lincoln in the Civil War over slavery, and FDR Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the Great Depression and economic collapse, fall in that category and there is no one and nothing to compare with both the struggles they fought and the challenge to the survival of the US. On the next scale comes TR Teddy Roosevelt, and this is the Roosevelt to compare DJT with. TR was unconventional, TR spoke a different language and could be frank and outspoken. TR actions matched his words, as his days on the Indian frontier and with the Rough Riders. TR also had one term plus completing McKinley's term after his assasination. And TR like DJT did not like his successor and did everything to make the comeback denouncing the policies of his successor William Howard Taft in the 1912 election, which TR lost to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. All this is true for DJT in 2026. TR denounced the shift away from his "progressive policies" and the shift to corporate interests of Republican Taft. In this sense also DJT is similar as he denounced the shift to corporate interests of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama years. TR was no country club Republican and was willing to confront opponents in the politics to fight for the benefit of the working man, splitting the Republican party in the process. This is true of DJT. TR launched the rebuilding of the Navy, and announced he would reassert the Monroe Doctrine. DJT is doing the same and is reasserting the Monroe Doctrine. One could say that DJT feels the hidden TR in him and like Teddy Roosevelt is putting America in the place it once was. For TR the industrial revolution had distorted a country founded on the backs of settlers owning the land independent and rugged, as industry turned the country into corporate interests and workers in factories with few rights, and poor working conditions and wages. This TR even as a Republican fought to reverse. In DJT there is the Republican also of a different mould who fights to reverse the situation created by Bush/Clinton/Bush/ Obama over three decades since the 1990's when America has fallen to new lows when drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela are able to run rampant over the western hemisphere, when elites in Canada and the US act impotent in the face of this, or living in their own world away from the streets and neighborhoods of America devastated by drug trafficking, towns and neighborhoods from Janesville to Flint economically deprived as elites shifted manufacturing overseas to China in complete indifference to the American worker and his family, and carried out wars in remote parts of the world such as hills of Afghanistan and deserts of Iraq no worker or farmer in America had even heard of or cared about since the American continent was settled in 1600. If there is a Woodrow Wilson around the corner who won in 1912, for the 2028 election, then it is someone who like Wilson will take policies to benefit the American worker and farmer and his family, and America as a Nation to a better place over the next decade. A passage from Teddy Roosevelt from his Autobiography about who TR was struggling against illustrates this point- "They favored Civil Service Reform; they favored copyright laws, and the removal of tariffs on works of art; they favored all the proper (and even more strongly the improper ) movements for international peace and arbitration; in short, they favored all good and many goody-goody, measures so long as they did not cut deep into social wrong or make demands on National and individual virility. They opposed, or were lukewarm, about efforts to build up the army and the navy, for they were not sensitive regarding National honor, and above all they opposed every non-milk-and-water effort, however sane to change our social and economic system in such a fashion as to substitute the ideal of justice towards all for the ideal of kindly charity from the favored few to the possibly grateful many." (Theodore Roosevelt, Autobiography, Chapter 5 title: Applied Idealism, 1913) ...

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Experts say the election of Manuel Lopez Obrador as president of Mexico in June 2018 makes it easier to renegotiate the NAFTA treaty because Mr. Obrador's centre left positions to improve factory conditions and with it factory wages in Mexico, align better with Mr. Trump's goal of raising labor standards in Mexico. Robert Lightnizer, U.S. Trade Representative who leads the U.S. in talks wants to see 40% of the content of auto vehicles that trade duty free within the North American trading bloc of Mexico, Canada and the U.S. to be made at a particular wage level. The wage level the U.S. discussed is $16 an hour. The wage in Mexico is about $8 an hour on average in 2017, with parts plants at $4 an hour, according to the Centre fro Automotive Research. Mr. Obrador is more likely to favor the higher wages for Mexican workers because of his close relationship with the unions in Mexico. Mr. Obrador takes office Dec. 1, 2019, yet a leading member of Mr. Obrador's team will now join in the negotiations as soon as Mr. Obrador is declared president elect by end of June.   ...

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This report in the WSJ gives an inside look at recent events in Venezuela. Venezuela's Opposition was fractured without a common strategy to deal with Mr. Maduro for the last 3 years, until Jose Guiado and a small group called Popular Will decided to take action. On Jan 23, 2019 very few opposition leaders knew that the leader of the National Assembly, Jose Guiado, would declare himself president in front of a crowd of 100,000. Venezuela is enduring horrendous inflation of over 1 million percent for the year. After 3 years of setbacks a small group of opposition leaders decided to take action seeing the National Assembly as reflecting democratic voice in the country. In December leaders discussed strategy and a breakthrough came on Jan. 4th when the Lima Group of 14 Latin American countries and Canada called on Mr. Maduro to hand over power to the National Assembly. Most countries have not accepted the results of the recent election of Mr. Maduro. As recently as Jan. 22 even Mr Guiado was not convinced. It was only after Mr. Mike Pence the U.S. VIce President called to express support that he came around. ...

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The Nordstream gas supplies pipeline which runs 760 miles from northwest Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany will go into maintenance for 10 days. Russia says that a turbine that is being repaired in Canada could delay resumption of the pipeline that is already down to 40% of its pre Ukraine war supply.  Germany says Russia may turn off the Nordstream pipeline completely in response to more western sanctions. Russia could attribute it to maintenance issues. Germany's manufacturing companies that depend on the gas supplies are already scrambling for other sources. Some like Uniper SE one of Europe's largest utilities are turning to the German government for aid as it turns to the spot market for supplies at much higher prices. France's EDF SA is losing billions of euros under a government imposed price cap on electricity prices. It will be nationalized. Yara fertilizer company with 15 production sites in Europe uses Russian gas to make ammonia for fertilizer. Now it is turning to other sources for ammonia, a key ingredient for nitrogen fertilizer.  WSJ gives examples of many more companies in industries in Germany from glass making to coating steel in melted zinc using furnaces powered by gas, that are affected. Two VW power plants in Wolfsburg will shift back to coal after spending 400 million euros in a conversion to natural gas. The list goes on and on. There is the need to conserve natural gas and LNG supplies to heat and power homes for the winter. Thermostats will be turned down to 62 degrees in many places in Germany, hot showers will be shortened, and every effort made for conservation, and even this may not be enough. ...

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We show here Mette Frederiksen's opening address at the Danish parliament in 2023 because of her down to earth way of looking at things, free of abstract theory. Danish people are always learning English and learning from the UK and America. America and the UK, and the rest of Europe can learn from Mette Frederiksen and Denmark. She brought a common sense approach to immigration, saying that it was workers and families that were suffering from the distractions caused by immigration issues replacing bread and butter issues such as cost of living and future issues such as education and health care, and wages, that help determine the quality of life.  When for instance has the leader of a European nation or the US or Canada started with and devoted the better part of her opening address to parliament to teachers? And the burden placed by Aula app for parents to express concerns about their children to teachers so that teachers could not devote that time to preparing for class? And the burden placed by 1081 goals given by administrators to teachers on norms culture values -full of abstract theory no one knows what they mean- taking the time of teachers that they could devote to preparing for class? And about wind turbines on the coastline of Denmark- held up by concern for bats. Should the bats simply avoid the turbines and did anyone find out how many bats there were asks Mette Frederiksen. And  enlarging the harbor for a wind turbine factory location that built turbines too big to transport on land. Should this take 8 years she asks? ...

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GM and Ford US International Trade Commission report in 2024 sees only about a 5% increase in prices for a 25% tariff in car imports into the US from EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico and China. With US production GM at 60% Ford at 80%, both companies are better positioned to shift production to the US following 25% tariff on cars imported into the US. GM also has the financial strength to invest in new auto plants in the US. Given a period of transition US companies are in a position to tap the added demand as more cars are made in the US.  Stellantis Stellantis formed from the merger of Chrysler, Fiat and Peugeot makes many of its cars overseas in Mexico and in the EU, and has considerable exposure. Toyota Toyota sales in 2024 were 2.3 million cars, with about 60% of the production in the US. Hyundai and Kia, Nissan Hyundai makes about 80% of the 840,000 cars it sells in the US in US plants. Hyundai plans to invest $21 billion in the US to make cars in the US including $5.8 billion for a steel plant in Louisiana. Other companies may follow Hyundai to Make in the USA. VW VW had plans for an expansion to make 590,000 cars. It has current  sales of about 400,000 cars in the US. Expansion at the Chattanooga plant or putting in another plant could help it make most of its cars in the US. ...

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Standard & Poors downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. In its reasons for the downgrade the ratings agency said the "political brinksmanship" in debt ceiling and deficit reduction negotiations has made the process "less stable, less effective and less predictable." It said the $2.1 trillion savings under the August 2 Debt legislation falls short of what is needed to improve U.S. finances. David Beers, the head of the government debt ratings unit at S&P also said that "we don't think it's coming back any time soon." Countries that still have a AAA rating are Canada, France, Germany, and Britain. Countries with AA+ rating include New Zealand and Belgium.

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Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. announces a test flight of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet for the second quarter of 2015. The plane seats 76-88 passengers and is designed for short haul flights. Deliveries would begin in 2017. This is Japan's effort to develop its aircraft industry. Mitsubishi has 375 orders. Bombardier of Canada and Embraer of Brazil dominate this segment of the market in a duopoly. Embraer is expected to retain its 61% of the market and Mitsubishi is likely to take 22% on the market for No. 2, with 4000 deliveries in the period 2017-2033, according to analysts. Shareholders in the company include Japan Development Bank and Toyota Motor.

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As Indian pharmaceutical industry sees drug testing in India as an opportunity, conditions for obtaining the best results are being established by taking necessary steps. With ashortage of experienced people to run drug trials, Indian government has stepped up training, setting up partnerships with the U.S. FDA, Health Canada, the World Health Organization, and other similiar organizations, The emphasis should be on credible dat and the safety of subjects says A.K. Pradhan, India's Assistant Drug Controller. After the death of an infant in a Wyeth Pharmaceuticals drug testing effort, the Drug Controller of India though supportive of Wyeth has raised certain issues that Wyeth is addressing.

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What this tennis report is not saying is that only a generation ago the drop shot was standard and a key part of the game. The base line hitters era is now gone as player after player from Europe is shifting to the way tennis was always played with a great mix of shots. This drop shot or the related shot the lob was normal when Ile Nastase, Newcombe, Rosewall and Laver played in the 1970's and 1980's, games this reviewer watched late into the night at tennis tournaments in the US and Canada. It was because of the range of strokes that tennis was fun to watch and became popular at the time. The reason is that drop shots, lobs, take skills, timing, mixing shots with speed and with touches, and requiring a keen sense of the flow.

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Mark Carney's program for Canada is based on 5 Actions-

1. Double the rate of home building to get 500,000 additional homes a year.

2. Ease Cost of living pressures. Reduce the lowest tax bracket rate to 14% from 15%. Scrap the sales tax on buying the first home for homes less than C$ 1 million about $720,000. Make dental care available for low income Canadians adding 4.5 million Canadioans to the national insurance program.

3. Build a national electricity grid east to west, reducing dependence on the US.  Invest in both clean energy and fossil energy.

4. Increase defense spending to 2% of the budget with $18 billion in additional spending over 4 years.

5. Invest $5 billion in ports, rail, and infrastructure to create new trade corridors.

 

 

 

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Already Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan are negotiating. India will join South Korea. Britain will follow. Only Canada and China are holding back because of the imbalance in trade heavily in their favor and a failure to see that it is about fairness. In the EU only Germany has a surplus many nations have a deficit, it seeks to start negotiating at the first opportunity. Contrary to what most of the American and British media says Lighhizer and Jamieson have thought this thing through for many years before arriving at the Tariffs advice they gave the US president as his 2 USTR. It is these two not the president acting on his own whim as the media like to show. And Lighthizer has done this before- as Deputy USTR in the 1980 with Japan on the opposite side and come out of it with winning solutions for the US and for the world.

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Allan Blakeney was health minister of the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, and later premier of the province. Blakeney, as health minister in premier Woodrow Lloyd's government expanded a program in 1962 to cover the costs of doctor provided medical care. Earlier in 1946, the Saskatchewan government of Tommy Douglas setup a program of universal insurance coverage for hospitalization. This program of universal healthcare was extended to all of Canada in 1966. He later headed the provincial New Democratic Party and was premier of Saskatchewan from 1971-1982. During this period he introduced a New Deal for People, which included a dental program for children, prescription drug program, subsidized housing and a guaranteed income supplement for the elderly poor.

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Caterpillar is asking workers at its Canadian plant to accept a large cut in wages and benefits. Wages and benefits at Caterpillar's rail equipment plant in LaGrange, Illinois, are less than 50% of the costs at the Caterpillar locomotive assembly plant in London, Ontario. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. manufacturing labor costs per unit of output were 13% lower in 2010 than in 2000. This compares with an increase of 2.3% in Germany, increase of 18% in Canada, and increase of 15% in South Korea. Caterpillar is also asking for more flexible work rules at the Canadian plant. The flip side of this is that U.S. workers are earning significantly less in manufacturing, especially considering inflation, and the middle class is shrinking in the U.S. At the same time wages in the U.S. that are more competitive with wages in Mexico and China with flexible work rules and use of automation and technology, is helping to reverse the shrinking of the manufacturing sector in the U.S....

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The situation in nursing homes and eldercare is a huge black eye says this report from Canada. The situation is poor also in the U.S. and Britain. All the Anglo-Saxon countries appear to have the same problem of neglect of eldercare and homes for older citizens compared to say Japan, Germany or France with different healthcare systems and more invested in these areas of health and older citizens.Look at the numbers- in Canada 80% of deaths from coronavirus among older people in nursing homes. Next Ireland at 62%, and the U.S. at 40%. This report says these elder care facilities in Canada are run down, poorly equipped and understaffed. Canada's armed forces sent medics to the nursing homes in Quebec and Ontario and their reports are described as distruging and worrisome by prime minister Trudeau. In these countries lawmakers and policymakers have failed, and the culture of investing in areas other than health and public services and infrastructure, has failed the people. A poor scorecard for this generation of politicians, lawmakers, and leaders both in business and the government. ...

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Fiat's Marchionne leads Chrysler. He will keep Jim Press as deputy CEO. Press is a veteran from Toyota. The four brand CEO's are Peter Fong for Chrysler, Michael Manley for Jeep, Michael Accavitti for Dodge, and Pietro Gorlier for Mopar. Except for Gorlier, all are Chrysler employees. Ralph Gilles continues as Design executive, and Scott Kunselman, a Chrysler veteran will lead product development. Frank Ewasyshyn will continue to lead manufacturing. Doug Betts will remain in charge of quality, and Scott Gaberding, as head of procurement. Only Marchionne and Richard Palmer, the new Chief Financial Officer are the new faces at the upper ranks. Marchionne's mesage to Chrysler employees is that Fiat was perceived by many as failing in 2004, " a lethargic automaker that produced low-quality cars." But he says "most of the people capable of remaking Fiat had been there all the time. Through hard work and tough choices, we have remade Fiat into a profitable company." One thing that Marchionne has already in mind is a flattened organization with which he says "we are able to increase speed of decision-making and improve communication." Marchionne is actually a manager who worked and spent many years in Canada. He got his MBA at the University of Windsor, in Windsor, Ontario, in 1980 and his LLB law degree from York University in Toronto. His parents immigrated to Canada when he was 13, and he grew up in Toronto. He worked at Deloitte Touche and Canadian companies before moving to Europe. So he is very familiar with working in North America. Compared to the young group he had working for him in changing Fiat, he has many older managers at Chrysler. ...

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The IPO is expected to bring $10 billion and reduce the government's stake to below 50%. The IPO plans for the shares to go for between $26 and $29. For the government to breakeven the shares have to rise to about $50. GM plans to sell 24% of its total shares for $10 billion at the midpoint of the estimated share price. Under the plan, Treasury would sell $7 billion of its shares cutting its stake to 35% from 61%. The UAW trust which pays for retiree health care, would sell $2 billion of its shares. Canada and Ontario would sell about $1 billion of their shares. The government will try to recoup some of the $49.5 billion given to GM.

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A shift in priorities away from focussing on high growth to lower sustainable growth was announced by China's premier Wen Jiabao at the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March 2012. This shift will reduce investment in infrastructure, power generation and exports, which will affect the level of imports of commodities from commodity producing nations in the Middle East, Australia, Canada and Brazil. It should increase imports of software, computers, entertainment, tourism and high tech goods from the U.S. and Europe. Chinese leaders have said they would make this kind of shift for some years now but growth has consistently increased more than the target rate, and domestic consumption as a percentage of the economy has actually decreased in the last decade. Now 9-10% growth rates may be a thing of the past and the target of 7.5% set this year may be actually closer to the real figure. The Chinese leaders have belatedly realized the need to make these changes now because slowing markets in Europe -which is seeing declining growth and high unemployment- and in the U.S., make the issue impossible to avoid. Wen told the Congress: "Accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economc development... is both a long term task and our most pressing task at present... Domestically it has become more urgent but also more difficult... to alleviate the problem of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development." This is his way of saying that its unavoidable and better to start in earnest now, and at the same time recognizing the resistance to change from the stateowned companies and the other interests who have benefitted from surging growth, and now occupy a central role in the power structure. An opinion article in the People's Daily, China's official newspaper, said: "imperfect reforms are to be preferred to a crisis caused by no reforms." The World Bank's president Zoellick is respected by the Chinese leaders. He also urged them to make changes now. The recent report of the DRC, China's planning research arm, and the World Bank, also laid out the new direction away from a focus on infrastructure to domestic consumption. The fear is sudden deceleration in the absence of policy action. The impact of this will be negative for commodities over time, leading to slower growth in Australia, Brazil, and Canada. It should boost imports from Europe and the U.S. of high tech, consumer, pharmaceutical goods over time....