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Karen Eliott House was a former publisher of the WSJ. Now with WSJ in Murdoch's News Corporation's hands, she is a fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center. Here she points to the diverging situation between the USA and Saudi Arabia. She thinks the US cannot protect the Saudi monarchy (which dates back to Abdul Aziz and his support from President Roosevelt first by recognition of the new state of Saudi Arabia in 1932 and support during the war), from its domestic challenges. One of these domestic challenges is changing demographics as the young or people below 15 years age make up 40% of the population, rising unemployment, and pressures for modernization which the monarchy has done little to respond to, and the lack of democratic forms which would give people a chance to vent their feelings. For the U.S. the frustration is that the Saudis have done little or can do little for the USA in the way of moderating oil prices as they move still higher, because of speculative trends, decline of production in its own maturing oil fields, and needs to finance huge new plants and cities to provide employment to a growing population. In fact Libyan oil officials has been more of a moderating influence recently than the Saudi oil officials. So it appears that what Karen is saying is that the Saudis are pursuing their own interests in their region and the wider region that includes South Asia and Northern Africa, and the US is pursuing its own interests, which at this time are not as clearly defined, except securing oil supplies and protecting Israel. The 2 countries USA and Saudi Arabia are going their diverging and different ways in a way that is irreversible....

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A detailed look at the limits of the November 23, 2013 nuclear deal at Geneva negotiations with Iran. David Sanger of the NYT points out the limits of the deal and any future deal reached with Iran. Experts and negotiators of deals with North Korea point to the difficulties and the reversibility of such deals. Only a deal that takes the centrifuges and the nuclear fuel out of the country would be complete, say experts in Israel. In the period since 2009 when Obama took office Iran has increased the amount of low-enriched uranium to 9000 kilograms from 2000 and centrifuges from a few thousand to 18000, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, showing the difficulties of achieving such an agreement. The reactor at Arak is another pathway to nuclear weapons using plutonium. Any hidden facilities also present risks.

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Stanley Fischer author of 1978 textbook on Macroeconomics with Dornbusch was vice chair of the Fed under Janet Yellen after the financial criis of 2009, and was governor of the Bank of Israel. Both are from the Department of Economics of MIT.  What makes the book and Fischer interesting and unique is that they "do not emphasize the debate but go into more substantive matters," looking at points where the different schools of thought have agreement and at economic matters on an individual basis. Another unique aspect is that it uses lots of graphs but very little math, and focuses on reasoning as the way to tackle economic issues of inflation and unemployment. This is the approach one sees from men in finance and industry who are not economists, including Fed chair Powell who have taken this reasoning approach with no preconceived idea, to get the best results in each individual economic situation such as the one the US faced with the covid pandemic and now faces with resetting world trade for equal opportunities to all nations in manufacturing. ...

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Friedman highlights the importance of an interview with President Obama by Atlantic magazine's Jeffrey Goldberg. In this interview Obama gives a thoughtful understanding of what it means if Iran acquires nuclear weapons. The greatest danger is in nuclear proliferation. Obama brings to this an understanding of this issue from the time he focussed on this issue as a student at Columbia University, when he described the risks of nuclear proliferation in the Columbia student newspaper. There is the risk of an escalation in the development of nuclear weapons in the Middle East first, and then elsewhere. And there is the risk that nuclear weapons fall into the wrong hands. The situation would create problems like that faced in North Korea or in the India-Pakistan region, but increased by many times the current dangers. The entire nuclear de-proliferation effort and the efforts to de-nuclearize weapons stockpiles that took decades to accomplish with the Soviet Union could come undone- and it would then be necessary for all countries to invest in advanced technologies for defending against nuclear weapons, setting in motion another arms race. The current situation reminds people that the issues raised by nuclear weapons development will always be with us, and require a worldwide concerted effort, at official and public level, bringing in scientists, public opinion worldwide, and educating the public in all countries of the larger danger to mankind. The issues need to be put in the right context beyond nations and politics, beyond international conflicts and competing interests or ideologies, including Israel, Iran and any other nation looking for nuclear weapons as a solution for conflicts. Shultz, Perry, Kissinger and Nunn after a series of meetings at the Hoover Institution called for the update of the old policies of nuclear deterrance based on mutually assured destruction used with the Soviet Union, to reflect the new threat of terrorism- in an op-ed NYT 3/7/2011. The focus of this effort is on a new Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, with all nations giving up nuclear material to an international nuclear material bank. Senator Obama strongly supported the efforts of Senators Lugar and Nunn in de-proliferation work after the collapse of the Soviet Union and joined the senators on one of their trips- Broad and Sanger, NYT, 7/5/2009. A major effort to reduce NATO, U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons is called for to lead by example, providing a framework for other means of settling regional conflicts and educating public opinion in these countries, and moving forward the negotiating of the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. In many ways public opinion will have to lead the way in all countries as governments can lag behind- the efforts of Sam Nunn and Dick Lugar and the many unnamed people in the Soviet Union who aided their efforts show the importance of this....

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Israel's prime minister Netayahu and U.S. president Obama move further apart with serious disagreement on when to impose further sanctions on Iran for nuclear weapons development. Netanyahu accepts an invitation from Speaker Boehner to address the U.S. Congress in 2015. Republicans face a serious divide with the U.S. president with serious disagreements in domestic policy, including immigration, taxes, and ways of addressing increasing inequality.

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A slight shift in American opinion favoring a deal with Iran is shown in a WSJ/NBC poll in July 2015 compared to the poll in April 2015. Support for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran remains stable at 36% in both polls, the opposed drops by 6 percentage points to 17% from 23%, and the percentage of people who say they do not know enough to formulate an opinion goes up to 46% from 40%. The intricacies of a nuclear technology deal and the sites involved lead to a high percentage of don't know enough to give an opinion. Factors hindering a deal include inspection of military sites, and Iranian intentions. Factors favoring reaching a deal now is the risk that this would mean Iran would go back into isolation and the opportunity to work with moderates might be lost. The Rouhani administration was an effort by voters to elect a government that could ease or remove sanctions to improve the economy and living conditions- its failure would lead to Iran losing an opportunity to open up to the world. The pressure from the U.S. Congress and Israel served to push for a verifiable and effective agreement to control development of nuclear technology for weapons systems. Behavioural factors involved are the very young population in Iran which has no memories about the period before the revolution in 1979- 70% of the population of 74 million are people under the age of 35. This group is eager for ties to the outside and could change Iran's outlook and policies int the future towards moderation. Risks in not reaching a deal also include the possibility of the Saudis developing nuclear technology and nuclear proliferation. Winners from a deal because of the flow of Iranian oil to world markets and a period of extended low oil prices are the U.S., Europe, China and India. Germany gains new markets to replace the growth in the Russian market after sanctions. Lifting of an arms embargo, an added risk in the last days of the talks, would be mitigated by making the lifting of that embargo very gradual....

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Comments on X that cause difficulty for DJT chief of staff Susie Wiles to keep a clear narrative and the loss in the Wisconsin SC election are leading to a sense that Elon Musk could be a political liability. DJT focus is on the midterms and keeping the majority in the House, which is also why Elise Stefanik was asked to not accept the job of UN Representative and remain in the US Congress. The immediate focus is on tackling the Tariffs Liberation Day action April 2, 2025 so that followup negotiations with about 50 countries including major ones with Japan, Taiwan, Israel, Britain followed by European Union, South Korea and other nations. This would reassure markets as country after country is developing a new trade relationship that respects US manufacturing goals. China could then be tackled as a special case with America limited to loss of $146 billion in energy and grain sales which would be diverted to Europe's energy needs and farmers could be given a $50-100 billion support package. China would then have to find a way to preserve its $1 trillion surplus without the American market  which would require it to find other markets, and create a domestic market, if it chose not to negotiate and accept American manufacturing goals. ...

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The faulty intelligence reports on Iraq cast a shadow over any new intelligence agency findings about Iran and nuclear weapons development.

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Renault and Nissan will work with Mr Agassi to test electric cars in Israel on an experimental basis before developing its own electric cars from scratch by 2010.

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Israeli refiner Alon is bullish on asphalt because more and more refiners are processing the heavier oils into gasoline and diesle and there is less bitumen left a key ingredient for road asphalt. As the USA roads are in poor condition and will need servicing at some point as they age, further public spending on dilapidated roads will increase at some point, and when this happens the price of asphalt will rise significantly as the supplies will be small.

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Estimates including one by Fimat, of $80 per barrel when the security premium for oil goes even higher after the Iran backed Hezbollah war with Israel in Lebanon. oil markets jittery.

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Over 50 countries have asked for negotiations with the US over reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on April 2, 2025. US president DJT says- “There will be fair deals.” DJT says a number of foreign leaders have contacted the White House since April 2nd.  Israel, Japan, Taiwan are beginning negotiations with the US over tariffs. Britain, South Korea and India will follow. The European Union is waiting for an opportunity to do the same. “They’re offering things to us that we would have never even thought of asking them for, Nobody but me would do this.” With China the situation is different and China is unlikely to negotiate. "We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us,” says the Chinese embassy in Washington DC. After DJT said he would impose a 50% tariff on China over and above the 34% of April 2nd if China does not take back its retaliatory tariffs. This would happen on Wednesday April 9. China says it would f"ight this to the end." A sign that the USTR will try to get other nations to come up with deals and tackle China separately. ...

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Patel's speech on August 15 1948, provides a point of reflection for Gandhi's project of Hind Swaraj announced in his book Hind Swaraj written on a steamship voyage in 1909 returning to South Africa from England, and this week's Vikshit Bharat 2047 vision taking shape 75 years after 1947. Hear this audio podcast from All India Radio of Indian Deputy prime minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel's broadcast to the Indian Nation on Aug 15, 1948. It  is a point for reflection just one year after independence when the "paramountcy of the British inIndia came to an end," yet it was not clear that India would be pulled together as one Nation or be in pieces "Tukda, tukda." 75 years ago Patel talks about the situation in China where civil war raged- on that day the NYT showed Koumintang and Communist armies facing each other near Nanking and in Shantung province. Hyper inflation had already hit Shanghai a sack of rice cost 6.7 million yuan and the highest denomination currency was 180 million yuan, the Kouminatang decided to print money to fight the civil war.  Malaysia had riots and communist insurgency was about to take place. Synghman Rhee was made president of South Korea with US Gen. Douglas McArthur present in Seoul and the invasion by Communist North Korea on June 25, 1950 was around the corner.  Israel's Ben Gurion asked the UN to have Arab armies withdraw or it would have to go to war. In India the Kashmir invasion in the Himalayas starts on 12 September 1947 with Liaquat Ali Khan approving plans for tribals and Pathans to attack Kashmir.The states of Hyderabad, Travancore and Junagadh among princely states(which were one third of the British Empire) that had not been integrated. In Europe the Berlin Blockade had started in June 1948. This is the Asia and Europe that Patel saw in 1948 as he pondered on the meaning of Gandhi's success and what had still to be achieved. It is also a point of reflection in advance of  August 15, when India gained its freedom from British rule and set the stage for the decolonization of Indonesia from the Dutch, of Vietnam from the French, and Malaya from the British, followed by decolonization in all of Africa. ...

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After 5 months as president of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, issues decrees giving the president powers to dissolve the current deadlocked constitutional assembly. Liberals and Coptic Christians in the constitutional assembly had walked out in disagreement with the majority of about 75% appointed by the newly elected Egyptian parliament, which has an absolute majority for the Muslim Brotherhood party of Morsi. The deadline for the constitutional assembly completing its work was extended 2 months. A key demand of the opposition was that the work of the constitutional assembly was being rushed. Morsi also replaced the Mubarak appointed public prosecutor with Ibrahim Talaat, a leader for the movement for judicial independence, and ordered a new trial of Mubarak and others involved in the death of democracy protesters. The decrees were announced just as a ceasefire arranged by Morsi and U.S. president Obama has taken effect in the Israel-Gaza conflict. Morsi placed his actions above judicial oversight saying they were temporary. This came under heavy criticism from the opposition to Morsi in Egypt, as a threat to the gains from the hard fought freedom fight by creating a situation where too many powers are concentrated in one person....

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A NATO summit has tension and uncertainty with president Trump pushing forward his idea that Europe should take on a larger share of the burden for its own defense. Some of this goal was achieved with the jawboning style of Mr. Trump- NATO plans to increase military spending and increase EUropean governments share of defense spending. A European Defense Fund with 13 billion euros of funding is being set up to develop military capabilities. This is also what Mr. Trump hopes to accomplish by using this approach where other approaches were resisted by Germany in previous American administrations from Bush to Obama. It is also why Mr. Trump says he thinks NATO is now stronger than before, even though his approach throughout is unorthodox from Korea to NATO. Europeans see a divergence between the U.S. and EU on issues- such as Iran, Middle East and Israel, and Mr. Trump's efforts to maintain good ties with Russia meeting Mr. Putin after the Summit. This leads to a sense that the U.S. cannot be depended on in the face of threats to the EU. Mr. Trump's policy suggests the U.S. has no permanent friends or permanent enemies, will follow its own interests independently of its transatlantic partners, says one expert. At the root of the problem lies Trump's conviction that the European nations benefit economically by spending less on defense and thrusting more of the burden on the U.S. -even after 2 costly wars have diminished American desire to take on responsibility especially as other economies have prospered better than the U.S. ...