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Young voters 18 years to 29 years, some voting for the first time, including men on college campuses, voted by 14 percentage points in favor of DJT, compared to the same group of young voters giving  Biden a 15 percentage point margin. The total shift this time nearly 30 percentage points in favor of DJT. Young men fight the endless wars and young men are falling behind women in college education and Democrat Biden and Republican Trump were the only presidents fighting to end these wars, Democrats not even sensitive about the crisis facing young men.  For younger women 18-29 years the Harris margin was 18 percentage points down from 32 percentage points for Biden in 2020, a swing of 14 percentage points away from Democrats.  Overall for men and women Harris was only 52% to 46% for DJT a margin of only 6 percentage points.  This bodes well for America to have independent thinking from young people, and the same pattern is observed for Latinos, which also is a good sign for America for the future. ...

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AP VoteCast shows over half of Americans and 8 in 10 Trump voters think support for transgender rights in government and society has gone too far. About 90 of Republicans, half of Democrats, and two thirds of Independents think support for transgender rights in government and society have gone too far. The situation about allowing transgender persons in women's locker rooms offends most women. Abortion rights is an issue for two thirds of women but half of the same women think transgender rights having gone too far, they cannot support transgender people in their daughter's locker rooms at school. Cultural issues such as these inflamed the situation with the signs in Madison Square Garden saying "transgender the hell out of locker rooms in our schools." What would FDR and Frances Perkins say about this, their whole lives spent trying to figure out a way for unemployment insurance and stabilizing employment. The net result is that only about 20-25% of women thought abortion was the issue, and 60-70% saw the economy as the main issue. ...

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All the extreme rhetoric on how Project 2025 is going to be adopted under a DJT administration has led to unease that there will be deterioration in the government and society.  Yet it simply may not work that way.   A second objective look at Project 2025 and how it's value to Republicans will be carefully evaluated piece by piece by DJT is needed. Keeping in mind 2026 House and Senate elections, winning broad support for the traditional Republican conservative line of thinking, and maintaining the support of all Republicans in the business, government, media and other sectors.  1. Replacing federal employees with party loyalists. This happens at the top of every agency of the government for every government in the US and Europe after an election for the last century. At today's unemployment level of 4 percent, adult males actually 3.9% and adult females 3.6%, and considering the higher salaries paid in the private sector, the tenuous nature of joining as a party loyalist as the national mood can shift at any time and things change again in 2027; where was the federal government going to find employees to be replaced at mid and lower levels? There is also the situation seen in 1928 when a Republican Hoover victory made Democrat NY Governor Al Smith compel a reluctant Franklin Roosevelt, who was just recovering from polio, to run for NY Governor. By 1931 over 3 years Franklin Roosevelt and Columbia University's Frances Perkins tested programs to stabilize employment in the US, introduce unemployment insurance as a new concept, and a 40 hour week also new, in the entire northeastern + midwestern states, all governors working together. By 1931 in just 3 years Franklin Roosevelt was on the clear path to sweeping victory in 1932 with a tested program to stabilize employment. 2.  The No. 1 goal is to restore the traditional family. It is clear in 2024 that the vast majority of Americans, whites, women as well as men, of all age groups, whites as well as Latinos and Asians, blacks, see that things like transgender "have somehow gone too far." 3. Cultural Literacy is needed for any nation to long survive. This is not even on any platform. Yet knowledge about America's history of settlement of the continent -correcting for treatment of American Indians, blacks, Chinese, Japanese without pointless race controversies- is being rapidly lost, and with it an understanding of America's civic institutions and Constitution, its founders and presidents, and evolution of the nation over the 20th century with the Industrial Revolution. The very terminology that has defined public knowledge about these United States is fast disappearing. It is a cause for unease in the minds of people in rural and urban, conservative and other parts of the political spectrum alike of what will happen to America as this is lost. 4. On immigration  a consensus was reached by president Biden that migrant flow was mishandled and the Lankford legislation offered by Republican leaders accepted by both parties to stop the flow. During his first term president Eisenhower conducted a program of returning illegal migrants to their home countries, Germany is doing this now and the UK's Labor party has made it No. 1 priority to stop migrant smuggling. 5. An effort to increase oil and gas production. This will help bring down the cost of living by reducing energy costs in the US and also helping Europe to do the same. Biden had already accepted the idea of the temporary need to do this to ease cost of living burden on the people of this Nation. The economic cost of wind and solar, are ultimate drivers for expanding renewable energy as major form of climate change action. In the first term of DJT 2016-2020 the lower cost of natural gas made it economical to switch from oil to gas. In the Biden term 2020-2024 all the effort to increase EV's on the road ran into the problem of lack of charging stations. It is possible that spread of charging stations could reverse this in the second term of DJT. It is the private sector and also the local governments that play a big part, climate change action will continue, and new R&D breakthroughs will happen to jump start it again.    ...

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Donald Trump says of Susie Wiles who transformed his campaign with quiet determined old style demeanor-

"Susie just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history. She is tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected. It is a well deserved honor to have Susie as the first-ever female chief of staff in United States history. I have no doubt that she will make our country proud.”

Suzie says-

"There are changes we must live with in order to get done the things we’re trying to do."

“In my early career things like manners mattered and there was an expected level of decorum." From Lincoln to Eisenhower there was this level of decorum.

"And so I get it that the GOP (Republican party) of today is different."

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Susie Wiles is a Florida native where she gained most of her experience running Republican campaigns from Bush/Qualyle, Romney, more recently Scott, De Santis and Trump. She also worked for lobbying firm Mercury, was an assistant to Congressman Jack Kemp. She has learned to brush away some of the boorish traits and rhetoric of the former president, says Politico.  As DJT's campaign manager of Florida in 2016 she told the Tampa Bay Times why-  "I don’t want this to continue. I think it seriously will damage our republic and who among that group can really have the fortitude to shift what I’ve seen happening over all these years?” "I will tell you this: The Donald Trump that I have come to know does not behave that way, and the lens that I look at him through, I don’t see any of that. I see strengths, I see smarts, I see a work ethic that is unparalleled,” she told the Tampa Bay Times in 2016. “I blanch sometimes. But, again, it’s not the Donald Trump that I have come to know.” During 2016 and in 2024 her disciplined attitude, humility, trying to be self effacing and focused have helped bring discipline out of the chaos in DJT's campaigns. She also has unique ability to get through at critical moments to restrain DJT from impulsive moments that create political liabilities.   ...

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Investments made by president Biden and Congress of $1 trillion in manufacturing and infrastructure will take time to go into effect. It is wrong to say this shows limits of this policy of investing in America as it has increased growth, maintained employment levels, and helped America recover from the pandemic. Biden did this for the National good not for Democrats and it was designed to benefit red and blue states like. Its effects will be felt long after the next election cycle in just 3 years January 2028, so that to say that president Trump or Republicans would get credit is an erroneous notion. The next president could come from the opposite party and the long term effects of this could benefit all parties, giving everyone a stake in making it work. The narrow view also overlooks the great benefits from this investment of $1 trillion for America's trading partners and allies in Asia and Europe, the American leadership role in CHIPS and Science as a result, and the respect of the world in the way America has handled its economic affairs. ...

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Car repair costs surged 28% over the last 3 years from 2021 to 2024. A fender bender can end up costing a lot. Even a rear view miror can end up costing $1200 to $1500 for a 2020 car with the heating element and sensors on these cars. It compares to $200 to $400 on a 2013 car. The average repair cost in 2023 was $4700 for an insurance claim up 7.5%.

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For a long time Democrats used Latinos as a captive voter base leading to serious errors in policy such as on the border issues for illegal migrant flow. All this has changed as Latinos started to think for themselves and think independently.

DJT gained 42% overall of the Latino vote, and 47% of the Latino men vote. There are now 36.2 million Latinos eligible to vote 2.53 times the number in 2000 and growing, largest after whites.

It was a decade worth of effort by Republicans to break the monopoly of the Latino vote and its misuse as almost an entitlement by Democrats. In 2016 it was 28 percent of the Latino vote for Republicans, in 2020 it was 35% a 7 percentage point gain, and in 2024 42% another gain of 7 percentage points. It bodes well for America that voters think independently.

 

 

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This 38 part serial documentary shows Xi Jinping's father going from a peasant family in Shaanxi province to a leader in the revolution in Northwest China, as part of the glorious history of the Communist party as it struggled in a China beset by missionaries, western powers including American forces under Joe Stilwell (documented in Tuchman's book Stilwell and the American Experience in China), Japanese in Tianjin, Manchuria, and provincial warlords, and hundreds of millions of ordinary Chinese living on subsistence wages. Most Chinese were to the British and western powers "coolies." It was the remarkable role of this revolution to change the idea Chinese had about themselves and their best friend in this was American General Joe Stilwell who since 1910 had acquired a knowledge and love for China unsurpassed by any Westerner since then. The problems of mismanaging industrialization in the Great Leap Forward, and zeal that ended up in the Great proletarian Cultural Revolution in 1960-1970 came later. For a period of fighting the Japanese and provincial warlords in the 1930's and 1940's even Joe Stilwell felt there was an effort to improve the lives of a whole civilization, a whole people. ...

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For stronger action against immigration Scholz will begin border checks by German police. This comes as opinion in socialist parties in Europe and in Germany shifts against the kind of disorder from illegal migrants that disturbs the social fabric and communities peaceful handling of economic problems.

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Scholz called Lindner, the head of the  Free Democrats, who as Finance minister in the coalition with Greens and SPD, was instrumental in blocking much needed infrastructure and other investment in the German economy.  Scholz said of Lindner that his attitude was "disrespectful," "egoistic" and "small-minded." Lindner wrote a paper calling for cuts in investment, welfare cuts and reducing climate change action preparing to leave the coalition to join the opposition Christian Democrats. Yet Lindner's FDP has less than 4% popular support and the timing is poor for his actions. For once the SPD and the Greens decided to stand upto this kind of behaviour and Scholz fired Lindner.

Scholz called for a confidence vote in mid-January as both sides plan on taking it to the voters in an new election.

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"Yesterday, I spoke with President-elect Trump to congratulate him on his victory. And I assured him that I would direct my entire administration to work with his team to ensure a peaceful and orderly transition. That's what the American people deserve." "Yesterday, I also spoke with Vice President Harris. She's been a partner and a public servant. She ran an inspiring campaign, and everyone got to see something that I learned early on to respect so much: her character. She has a backbone like a ramrod. She has great character, true character. She gave her whole heart and effort, and she and her entire team should be proud of the campaign they ran." "You know, the struggle for the soul of America since our very founding has always been an ongoing debate and still vital today. I know, for some people, it's a time for victory, to state the obvious. For others, it's a time of loss." "Campaigns are contests of competing visions. The country chooses one or the other. We accept the choice the country made. I've said many times you can't love your country only when you win. You can't love your neighbor only when you agree." ...

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President Biden addressed the Nation from the Rose garden today November 7, 2024. His remarks were conciliatory. "You can't love your neighbor only when you agree."  "Something I hope we can do, no matter who you voted for, is see each other not as adversaries, but as fellow Americans. Bring down the temperature." It is a remarkable end to a remarkable presidency which history will judge as perhaps a single term in which more was done than in any other 4 year term of a presidency, except for FDR in 1932 and Lincoln in 1861, tackling a once in a century pandemic, and rebuilding the economy, manufacturing, and infrastructure. And even correcting missteps on immigration by getting the legislation to fix it. It is a tall order for anyone who succeeds Biden though in the current post election situation there will be the typical euphoria on one side and losing on the other.  During the Republican sweep by Herbert Hoover in 1928 Franklin Roosevelt was elected governor of New York and he used the intervening years to 1932 to prepare for the monumental task ahead by testing his plan for economic recovery using New York and a couple of states from Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire, setting up the first unemployment insurance, shorter week, annual employment and other ideas to stabilize employment for one third of the US economy. Biden says he has asked his administration to work with Trump's team for the peaceful transition to a newly elected president. None of the fears about the transition came true with the new president getting a clear mandate to tackle the cost of living crisis for Americans. ...

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Investopedia's Hiranmayi Srinivasan gives the average year over year Consumer Price Index by president as prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics's Adrian Nesta, and offers discussion of each president and inflation rates from Eisenhower to Biden. The highest Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford, both lost the election for second term. Nixon and Biden are next. Nixon survived the high inflation rates. During the Biden presidency something else happened the pandemic which made people feel worse and compare the preceding president's inflation rate at 1.9% compared to 5.7% average per year. 5.7% adds up to about 23% increase over 4 years. The worst part was that basic food items eggs, bread and other groceries may have been priced at much more than 23%, and with added burden of higher monthly rent as landlords increased rent by much more than 23%. This meant dipping into savings and money saved for a house, destroying the American dream.

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US president Trump appointed Powell in 2016 in his first year in office. DJT's advisers have told him that it is important that the Fed have autonomy, and that the Fed was structured from inception for having the independent judgement for what is best for the economy. At times DJT has wanted the Fed in his first term to at least consult with the president.

In this context remember that Powell as chair of the Fed will be till May 2026. And Powell will remain as Governor on the Fed Board till Jan 2028. Of the current 7 governors the only other terms of a Fed Governor that expires early is Adriana Kugler in 2026.

DJT tariff and tax policies could increase inflation and growth which will require the Fed to recalibrate its views on cutting rates. 

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Bernie Sanders is reelected Senator from Vermont, as one of the oldest and most senior members of the US Congress in history. He will be 89 at the end of his fourth term in the US Senate. At 83 years he is the most resilient and active Senator in the US. Bernie Sanders support was key for president Biden's election in 2020. “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic party which has abandoned working-class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” Sanders said. “First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right. “Today, while the very rich are doing phenomenally well, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and we have more income and wealth inequality than ever before. Unbelievably, real, inflation-accounted-for weekly wages for the average American worker are actually lower now than they were 50 years ago. “Today, despite an explosion in technology and worker productivity, many young people will have a worse standard of living than their parents. And many of them worry that Artificial Intelligence and robotics will make a bad situation even worse. “Today, despite spending far more per capita than other countries, we remain the only wealthy nation not to guarantee healthcare to all as a human right and we pay, by far, the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs. We, alone among major countries, cannot even guarantee paid family and medical leave.” ...

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It came down to the price of eggs, bread, basic items on a grocery list. And Democratic politicians including Harris were not seen as sensitive to the pain, being the incumbent meant they were the ones who were responsible for letting prices get out of hand. This isn't just the WSJ analysis in its conversations with ordinary Americans. About 50 percent of Trump voters said higher prices were the largest factor in their decision, according to AP (Associated Press) VoteCast.  The Labor Department’s measure of consumer prices was up 20% higher in September 2024 than January 2021—the largest increase in the last 45 years for one presidential term. Average Year-Over-Year Inflation Rate by President Carter 1977 - 1981.    9.9% Ford 1974 - 1977.       8% Biden 2021 -  2024      5.2% Nixon 1969 - 1974.       5.7% Reagan 1981 - 1989     4.6% H.W. Bush 1989 - 1993. 4.3% W. Bush 2001 - 2009.     2.8% LBJ 1963 - 1969.             2.6% Clinton 1993 - 2001.        2.6% Trump 2017 - 2021          1.9% Obama 2009 - 2017.        1.4% Eisenhower 1953 - 1961.  1.4% JFK 1961 - 1963.               1.1% Overall Inflation Rate Data seasonally-adjusted Consumer Price Index for all items, current as of Aug. 2024. Chart: Adrian Nesta  Source:  BLS Consumer Price Index This also places a special burden of responsibility on the new DJT administration to take action on prices of everyday goods and groceries. ...

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In a response to Mark Cuban about intelligent women around DJT Susie Wiles his co-campaign manager shares that she and Linda McMahon are two she can think of "Well, here we are." Very disciplined and to the point using just the right words, and getting her message across, Susie Wiles is a remarkable addition to DJT's team from the outset. She once worked for Reagan's political campaigns. Susie Wiles says- "You don’t have to shout to get noticed. I don’t want to be in the spotlight. I think it hampers your ability to be effective.” She comes from Florida and was introduced to DJT by a Republican lobbyist in 2015. She has handled Rick Scott's transition with Matt Gaetz, and also worked on the De Santis campaign in Florida. In 2016 and 2020 she has the remarkable achievement of turning Florida once a swing state into a core part of the Republican states in the southern US. Susie Wiles says- "You don’t have to shout to get noticed. I don’t want to be in the spotlight. I think it hampers your ability to be effective.” ...

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To understand the way DJT has selected key people- it follows a traditional Republican pattern getting the best qualified Republicans on board. Some of them may not be as good as the ones they replace but some may be better administrators with good judgement. Sheila Bair of Wichita, Kansas, ran the FDIC from 2006-2011 and was one of the finest at FDIC who also contributed to solve the 2009 financial crisis.  Gary Gensler was slow in acting on cryptocurrency and other regulatory matters. He is one of the first to go in the new DJT administration. At the SEC a former SEC commissioner now legal officer at Robin Hood, or law partner at Sullivan and Cromwell. At CFPB a law professor at George Mason University or a previous Comptroller of the Currency. To understand where DJT is headed there are opposing ideas cap credit card interest rates at 10% that no Democratic administration ever brought up, and discarding a rule challenged in courts that caps credit card late fees. The VP Vance's instincts also come into play as he has also fought to lighten the burden on consumers. The Comptroller of the Currency- A law partner at Jones Day, who was Deputy Comptroller of the Currency in the past. The five member FDIC can only have maximum of 3 members from one political party. For the FDIC to replace Martin Gruenberg who had to resign for not taking enough action to correct a toxic workplace that was unfriendly to women, DJT will consider the Republican Vice chairman of the FDIC, or one of the Republicans board members on the FDIC  ran an investigation into the FDIC.  ...

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Susie Wiles, Trump Co-Campaign Manager is now the incoming DJT White House Chief of Staff.

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The Fed's Jerome Powell cuts interest rates by quarter of a percentage point on November 7, 2024. The Fed cut its short term interest rate target by quarter of a percentage point to 4.5% from 4.75% after a September rate cut of half a percentage point.