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Ukraine defends itself with American anti missile systems with Ukrainian Air Force saying it disabled 201 of 236 missiles and drones that also hit the energy infrastructure in the country that is already damaged from earlier strikes. The $61 billion aid package from the US that was passed in a bipartisan effort with Biden and McConnell in the Senate provided antimissile defense at a crucial time for Ukraine. Some of which enable it to defend itself.

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Peggy Noonan, spokeswoman for president Reagan, writes in the WSJ during a period of increased tensions in Hong Kong, in world trade, and in Britain. She cautions that moderation is a not fully understood or appreciated virtue. Noonan reflects conservative opinion in the U.S.

She says first China pushed too far resulting in earlier Hong Kong umbrella protests followed by today's protests.

Now that Carrie Lam and Beijing have backed down and withdrawn the extradition bill, the protests having made the statement, would continuing unrest and pushing Beijing too far be in their interests. Would it be in worldwide interests if that would worsen tensions from trade frictions, reducing levels of trust. 

This also applies to Mr. Johnson and Mr. Cummings in Britain's minority government. Having lost their majority are they pushing too far asks Noonan. 

 

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Large investments in infrastructure by president Biden with bipartisan support in Congress is having positive effects. New technologies and rising pay in the trades is leading to many young people joining it instead of the college route as the US rebuilds itself from scratch in the third decade of the 21st century.

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Coronavirus will add $2.5 billion to the cost of the Tokyo Olympics mostly for rebooking facilities, and paying additional wages for staff, as well as virus testing and cost for preventing spread of the virus. As is typical of these games going back to the disaster in spending at the Montreal Olympics that took the city years to recover, costs can double or more than double earlier estimates. Someone has to bear the extra costs and the national government will take on $1 billion of these extra costs.  The official budget estimate was $12.6 billion. An estimate from Japan Board of Audit in 2019 came up with figure of $20 billion. The pandemic would bring this closer to $22.5 billion or close to double. This cost to the Japanese taxpayer is leading one third of people to sour on the games saying they should be canceled in mid-Nov. TV Ashai poll, with one third saying delay it, only one third for it to go ahead. Except for $5.6 billion from a privately organized committee its all coming from the City of Tokyo with some help from the Japanese government. When it comes to financing it the IOC is not taking part. ...

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France has made the health pass for coronavirus mandatory for leisure and cultural venues starting July 21. The health pass will be mandatory for having a coffee, eating at a restaurant, or shopping in a mall from the beginning of August. The health pass is already in use in some form in many European Union countries. Denmark and Austria are using it for 2 months. Germany and Portugal are using it regionally depending on where the epidemic is severe. Greece which has a surge of tourism in summer from other EU countries is making it mandatory starting July 16 for entry into shops and restaurants. It was the absence of  any form of constraints on behavior in places such as Croatia with high tourism in summer that increased the surge in Germany and Austria last summer. Italy and Ireland are planning to make vaccination mandatory following France as the number of cases from the variants increase. Establishments that are violators of the mandatory rule in France will be fined 45,000 euros and persons responsible having to spend 1 year in prison. The mandatory rule has significantly increased the number of people seeking vaccination in France.      ...

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A case on whether a US government official can pressure social media platforms to remove content the government deems harmful is before the US Supreme Court. During the pandemic president Biden sought to quell rumors and misinformation about Covid vaccines. An Appeals court in Louisiana took a very conservative position that social media platforms could not be pressured in any way even from the bully pulpit not as a bully, meaning even persuasion was not allowed. The US Supreme Court will issue its decision in 3 months after it votes and the majority opinion is assigned to be written by one of the Justices It appears to be skeptical of the Louisiana Appeals court position.This NYT report shows exchanges between the Louisiana lawyer, deputy Solicitor General Fletcher speaking for the government, and Justice Kavanaugh. Justice Kavanaugh seems to agree with Fletcher that as long as it was a bully pulpit, that the president is saying it is harmful, but not threatening, it is acceptable under the First Amendment for president to do so. The president saying the rumor and misinformation was "killing people" was still only bully pulpit, no threat was involved.  ...

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The impact of increasing use of labor saving machinery on jobs.

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This video of former Attorney General Bill Barr shows his testimony to the US Congress on president Trump's statements that there was election fraud from voting boxes coming into Detroit at all hours and in the design of voting machines. This led to Mr. Trump saying the election was stolen. Mr. Barr says he told the president that this was "detached from reality" and he feels that it was doing "a disservice to the country."

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The head of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, says Russia is trying to provoke a world food crisis by attacks on Ukraine ports and infrastructure, and preventing the export of 20 million tons of foodgrains. She said the EU was working to get these foodgrains out of the country. Mr. Scholz, the German chancellor on a visit to Africa, also pointed out that the Russian attacks were having serious effects with food shortages in many African countries.

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It is a serious problem when big banks such as JP Morgan Chase offer 1-2% in interest on deposits when the Fed has increased market rates to above 5%. The average for all banks is only 0.73%. Consider that JP Morgan Chase made $14 billion in profit in 2022. This reduces the interest earned by the vast majority of average Americans who have savings at American banks and reduces their wealth further increasing inequality in the US.

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Canada does better with only 28,000 cases of the virus compared to 3 million in the U.S. by early July 2020, 300 infections a day compared to 28,000 a day. Three things Canada got right are its health system that provides universal health care to all Canadians, not having culture wars about accepted practice such as face covering and social distancing, and Trudeau adopting an approach of bringing Canadian opinion around a common fight against the virus.

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Hundreds more should expect to be arrested say police chiefs after the UK's riots following a children's theme party stabbing incident in Southport. Social media misinformation played a role in the riots and prime minister Starmer called this to the attention of the British people saying social media "is not a law-free zone." Britain's top prosecutor for the Crown knows a thing or two about the rule of law in Britain.

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Volcker says that even with all the fuss about the length of the Volcker Rule, its important to remember that the regulation itself is only 35 pages. And he says that lawyers for the banks are not honest when it comes to this, because they spent a lot of time finding holes in the rule and were working to add complications to it, and now they are turning around and saying that the Volcker Rule is too complicated. Asked about Dodd-Frank, Volcker says that it does make the U.S safer in a financial crisis because of the crisis resolution process set up under Dodd-Frank legislation. A bank fails and the resolution is clearly laid out- the government takes over and liquidates it, or merges it or sells it. Stockholders don't get a bail out, management is fired, and creditors have to take losses. A lot still depends on having vigorous and alert regulators. He sees two large problems, the Euro crisis and the U.S. deficit, which need strong action. Volcker remains perplexed by why the situation of huge disparities in income growth has not been expressed to a greater extent- on one side the lack of growth in income for the average family in 10-15 years and the other side having the huge increase in incomes at the top end. He does not know of any years when this was as big as it is now- except 1928, 1929....

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Deteriorating China Iran relations as the oil imports from Iran for China face US tariffs of 25% on China's exports to US, and US economic relations far more significant for the Chinese economy. China gets somwhere between 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels aday from Iran (80% of Iran's oil exports) into Shandong refiners at $10 below Brent crude prices. Another 400 mbd comes from Venezuela to China. This means $30 billion comes to Iran from oil sales to China at $59 a barrel, and $8 billion for Venezuela from oil sales to China. This has financed much of the bellicose policies towards the US in the western hemisphere and in the Gulf region. Iran's bellicose policies in the Middle East, its nuclear policy, are now seen by China as a distraction and  detract from good economic relations with the US. China $400 billion oil deal 25 year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was signed under the Biden administration and China today faces a completely different situation in 2026. Even China's relations with Russia are not the same as the US builds better relations with Russia. A wind down of the Ukraine war would change the situation completely and ensure peace in Europe including Russia, as the US works with the EU to meet future challenges having learned from this experience in Europe (Ukraine dividing Europe) and in the Western hemisphere (drug/ migrant. trafficking). When historians write this chapter of the inflows of capital from advanced West to Arab countries and the Gulf region they will write about the huge contrast between China/India's efforts to modernize and these nations where much of that capital was wasted in wars and conflicts and in grandiose projects that made no material difference to the standard of living and quality of life of the vast number of ordinary people. Once the oil dividend is gone with fossil fuels replaced with renewable energy by 2035-2040 this opportunity to advance is lost for the Arab and Gulf region. ...

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William Galston in the WSJ says outright for the first time in the WSJ that the years from the last term of Clinton, through the Bush, and Obama administrations were an outright failure for the American people. He documents the losses- 5.7 million job losses in 2000-2010 as Clinton opened China's entry into the World Trade Organization without any precautions taken to prevent abuse of world trading rules after the experience with Japan. Worse no help to the displaced workers which fed into the resentment of workers. Sex scandals weakened the presidency and acted as the major distraction during the last years of Bill Clinton. Over the administrations of Bush and Obama almost the entire US manufacturing base was dismantled and shipped to China. Pharmaceutical companies were allowed to charge recklessly when Bush disallowed Medicare to negotiate prices for pharmacueticals placing additional burdens on the American people. Bush started long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that cost the US dearly in lives and resources wasted with no vital US interests at stake as in Europe. This distracted attention from problems simmering at home. Obama continued these wars preferring to focus on reelection. The migration crisis, the neglect of infrastructure worsened during this period. The Bush deregulation of banks led to the 2009 world banking crisis that led to large layoffs worsening a bad situation from outshoring and creating a class of unemployed, and shrinking household wealth and savings. The Biden administration, the first Trump administration and now the second have started the process of revival of the US. And yet Biden, DJT are relative outsiders who came to the presidency and were not favored in the established order of the 1990-2016 period. One can say about Blair, Cameron, Boris Johnson in Britain, about Clinton, Bush, Obama in the US, and Schroeder, Merkel in Germany that the leadership was mediocre and failed the people of Europe and the people of America.     ...

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US policy is to end war as soon as nuclear threat is over- DJT on Iran war on March 31 2026. When the US feels Iran 'won't be able to come up with a nuclear weapon, then we'll leave,' says DJT. US is self sufficient and exports oil to Europe. It doesn't need Iranian oil. DJT makes that clear to allies in Europe who have not taken a stand in the war and limited access to their airbases, saying as Starmer did yesterday that Britain did not want to expand the war. Really, the US does not want to expand the war. DJT's MAGA base does not want this war, and Biden's base does not want this war. US does not need Straits of Hormuz- it is Britain, Italy and EU countries, mainly China, Japan, South Korea that need the Straits of Hormuz. Speaking for the US DJT tells these countries in Europe to get the oil themselves in the Straits. He also tells China to get the oil from the Straits- if they need it and are so complacent as to get 90% of their imports from Hormuz after 40 years of disruptions and wars, as China does. DJT said- "If France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the Hormuz Strait, they'll go right up there, and they'll be able to fend for themselves. What happens with the strait we're not going to have anything to do with, because these countries, China, China will go up and they'll fuel up their beautiful ships... and they'll take care of themselves. There's no reason for us to do it." "The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" ...

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White House Correspondents Dinner shooting on April 25 2026 at Washington Hilton, the scene of the shooting of Ronald Reagan decades earlier. It is unbelievable that over 2000 guests including the US president and important members of his cabinet would be assembled in a hotel in Washington DC that is not designed for this type of event security. The Washington Post raises questions about the security as the assailant stayed in the hotel. The president DJT says this shows why the White House should have a ballroom or hall that can hold such an event that is designed with security in mind. A 31 year old graduate in mechanical engineering from the California Institute of Technology who worked as a tutor in science subjects was the assailant who was apprehended. Secret Service agents acted quickly to clear the podium where the president and vice president were seated. Most of the people in the hotel ballroom were in complete shock. DJT has not attended previous correspondents dinners saying the media has fake news- much of the press in the US tends to have political leanings that slant the news in one direction or the other and television channels exaggerate the divisions for profit by supplying information tailored to what audiences in their political spectrum want. That may be seen as a clever business strategy when it really hurts the  democratic process that has been nurtured for 250 years. It could be said that young people in particular believe what they are told by media run for profit, opinion created for profit, and this leads to violent behaviour. A robust debate has always taken place in the US- on Iran compare that with the Mexican War under president Polk in the 1850's, before the civil war when Lincoln debated Douglas, under Democrat Harry Truman when he did a whistlestop rail campaign after the war against Republican Wendell Wilkie, yet the fragmentation of rural-urban, white male and white female, within minorities today is excessively and without remorse stoked by the television channels and the newspapers.  ...

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Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...

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The new plan to aid small business in the second stimulus of $908 billion being discussed in the U.S. Congress, is expected to be targeted to needy businesses. Lonas will go only to  businesses with less than 300 employees which can show they are hurting having a loss of 30% in revenue in any quarter of 2020.

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Dionne,Jr., says the failure of the "supercommittee" to reach a deal would not be a failure at all if it leads to a flawed deal that does not generate enough revenues, such as the $300 billion in tax increases proposed by Jeb Hensarling. If the deal also makes 90% of the Bush tax cuts permanent this would make deficit reduction harder. Under such terms not reaching a deal, and having automatic reductions triggered by that outcome may be the preferred outcome, says Dionne,Jr.

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Sally McGrane of the NYT brings us this delightful story about trees, looking at them in a new way. She tells the story of Peter Wholleben, a best selling author, No. 1 on the Spiegel list, a career forest ranger in the Eifel forest area near Cologne, Germany. Wholleben's book The Hidden Life of Trees: What They Feel, How they Communicate - Discoveries From a Secret World." is popular in Germany, describes trees in social terms, as having emotions, and caring for each other in wooded areas. Wohlleben noticed as a forest ranger that the artificial planting of trees away from each other using modern techniques in managed forests differed from forested areas in private properties where trees were clustered close to each other helping preserve social networks. This reimagining of trees giving the woods new life has become popular, with one talk show host saying he now takes a walk in the woods with a fascination for the nature around him.

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The governor of India's central bank, the RBI, says cryptocurrency are a threat to the economy and stability and savings of ordinary Indians. He believes private cryptocurrencies should be prohibited. He recently launched RBI own digital currency to combat the problem of private cryptocurrency firms. There is no proper regulatory oversight for cryptocurrency leading to abuses as most recently seen in the dramatic collapse of FTX in the US which was based in the Bahamas. It is covered by the WSJ.

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President Biden reassured yet also cautioned Israel by saying that in the rage over the Hamas attacks Israel should "not be consumed by it."  And make mistakes that the US made after the 9/11 attacks of going too far, losing world sympathy and entangled in decades of conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan. He also stated that US information showed that Israel had not bombed a Gaza hospital, that the damage came from rocket attacks within Gaza.

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It is now not just an issue of migrants, a much broader issue of how the people of Britain can have democratic processes and action on the economy work without disruptions and distractions such as migrants. The interests of 69 million Britons and hundreds of million in war ridden countries vs 40,000 migrants put on boats here because of economic conditions in their home countries. The best course of action for Labour is direct targeted assistance to rural schools and rural health care, farmers, in affected countries as they recover from years of war. 20,000 crossed the English Channel in boats in 6 months January to June 2025. Eritrea, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, areas of war in Middle East are source of migrants crossing the English Channel in boats.  Britain offering weekly allowance of 50 pounds a person and free National Health Service services encourages migrants to make the journey in boats and pay migrant trafficking operators with their life savings. Without a clear goal on migrants and necessary action Britain under Labour sees further destabilization of the social and political fabric of the country by reducing confidence in the two main political parties.  ...