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Key aspects of the new tax plan of the Trump administration are a 35% top tax rate for individuals, instead of the current 39.6% top rate, and lower brackets at 10% and 25%. Standard deductions are to be doubled, other deductions except for mortgage interest and charitable giving, are to be eliminated. The deduction for state and local taxes will be eliminated, with this hurting residents of high local tax states such as New Jersey, New York, and California. Gary Cohn, head of the National Economic Council and Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin,  have helped formulate the plan. Cohn sees a big opportunity here for a huge tax cut and simplifying the tax system. The corporate tax rate would drop from 35% to 15%, and future foreign profits would owe little or no taxes. Corporate tax rates are lower in the UK, Germany and Japan- closer to 20%, and France has a similar 35% corporate tax rate. The hope of the Trump administration is that this will generate 3% GDP growth rate and spur creation of jobs. Still to be decided at what level tax brackets for individuals will be set, and what level earlier foreign profits will be taxed, and the child care break. ...

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Areas for growth for the Indian drug Industry include the large growing domestic market, the outsourcing by US drug manufacturers, and sales in other developing countries of Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Analyst estimates are that India will spend $30 billion a year on drugs to improve care for its people in the next 10 years up from $8 billion today. And the distribution network is being developed by drug companies insdie India to reach more people. Also companies like Pfizer plan to double outsourcing of manufacturing drugs from 10% today to 20%.

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The European Union’s total defense spending increased by 30% from 2021 to 2024, to 326 billion euro or $341 billion. That is 1.9% of the EU’s GDP it's economic output, according to European Defense Agency. It is still short of 2%.  Britain will ramp up defense spending all the way up to 3% in 2027. Britain is short of defense equipment with transfers to Ukraine and with much of the defense budget going to maintain a nuclear deterrent. This leaves less for other defense needs. This report says most of the procurement for defense equipment goes to countries outside Europe.The Kiel Institute says 80% comes from outside EU. It is not mere shortage of funds it is the severe bottleneck from lack of defense manufacturing industry  that is putting Germany, France and UK in a situation where they are too dependent on the US. It takes years to build this capacity. Russia built it up during 3 years of war by going to a wartime economy and it now produces 4 times the ammunition Europe produces. The US did the same to match and exceed Russian capabilities and capacity, Europe lagged behind with unwillingness of Macron and of Scholz in particular to switch funds from needs in transport, infrastructure to defense. The debt brake Merkel to stop debt based infrastructure investment is what ails Germany. It has had two pernicious effects it created the AfD's surge by lowering economic growth and investment in public needs - housing, transport, public services. It worsened the SPD and CDU performance by not investing in security with no policies to return crime committing refugees to their home countries. A combination of aid and other assistance, diplomacy, secured the cooperation of countries to take them back. A strong display of action on removing refugees committing any offenses would have lessened the number of terrorism incidents. ...

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What Krugman makes of the $1.089 trillion dollar U.S. deficit for fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. He points out that the U.S. can have a stable to declining debt to GDP ratio with $400 billion debt. He cites the Clinton years (1992-2000) when the debt to GDP ratio declined from 49% to 33% with steady growth. What about the remaining $600 billion. He attributes this mostly to temporary factors which are reversible as growth picks up. Of this remaining excess deficit he says $400 billion is from lower tax payments to Treasury because of the 2008 economic crisis and the recession that followed. This includes the payroll tax cut which is also temporary to keep up consumer spending in the recession. The $150 billion is from unemployment insurance, food stamps, and other aid which is also reversed once growth picks up. He places emphasis on restoring economic growth as early as possible and reducing unemployment and using the recession for business to continue to invest in R&D, productivity, and government to preserve the social fabric, invest in education, and provide incentives for growth. S&P Nov. 8 report says the net government debt to GDP ratio is estimated to be over 80% in 2013. It will have to stabilize at current levels for S&P to preserve the U.S. credit rating, says S&P executive Chambers. The higher debt to GDP ratio in 2013 and lower growth rates expected makes the situation different from the lower debt to GDP ratios during the Clinton period. Britain, France and other major industrialized nations with political parties at either end of the political specrum have also chosen to stabilize or reduce debt to GDP ratios rather than take on the risks of them going much higher. The U.S. has the added problem of health care costs out of control with an aging population and about 17.9% of GDP going to healthcare costs in 2010 expected to increase significantly, as Medicare actuaries estimate enrollee numbers jump to 80 million in 2030 from 50 million in 2012. Democrats and Republicans have largely sidestepped this underlying problem in fiscal cliff negotiations....

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Rauhala cites an email from Apple CEO, Tim Cook, saying updates he gets about performance in China every morning show strong growth for Apple's business for July and August. China's retail sales are up 10.4% for the first 7 months of 2015, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The services sector as a whole showed growth of 8.4% in the first half of 2015, and it now makes up 49.5% of GDP, according to government statistics. Overall economic growth is about 4-5%, as the 7% official figure is considered overstated. Zhao Longkai, the executive director of the Beijing Univerisity Guanghua School of Management, says the retail sector should not be affected that much because losses are largely limited to a small number of wealthy investors, though some ordinary retail investors are affected, with overall stock market participation quite low compared to the U.S. and Europe. This and other expert opinion points to a situation of slower growth and debt overhang from the last stimulus, but not a strong connection between the stock market and the economy. The government's credibilty is affected by the failed intervention in July and this time during the sharp declines on August 24-25 the government is letting the market finds its own level, believing it will be better for markets and let them stabilize. ...

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Cold weather dampened U.S. economic growth in the 4th quarter, with the initial reading of 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual growth in GDP revised to a reading of 2.4% by the Commerce Department. Projections by economists are for even lower growth of 2% in the 1st quarter from the cold weather, which was the worst in 35 years for some parts of the north and midwestern U.S. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 2.6%, and the savings rate dropped by one percentage point from the average of the last 3 years to 4.5%. Government spending and investment declined by 12.8%, as efforts to reduce the deficit continued. Offsetting this, and the bright spot here was more business investment on equipment, software and buldings of 7.3%, and exports up by 9.4%. GDP in the 4th quarter was up 2.5% from the prior year and unemployment rate was 6.6% in Jan 2014. Overall assessment was cautiously optimistic for the U.S. economy at the beginning of the sixth year following the global financial crisis of 2008....

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To get an idea of the scale of paralysis in the Congress party administration of Manmohan Singh in India in 2011-2014 consider this- more than $100 billion in critical infrastructure projects were held up by slow growth and red tape, according to estimates of the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy. The Congress party was too preoccupied with fighting charges of corruption adding to the lack of leadership from Singh and Gandhi, and focussed on programs of subsidies for voters to prepare for the 2014 elections. In the last 12 months alone ending in March 2014, manufacturing projects of about $54 billion were shelved, according to the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy. The climate of uncertainty led to Indian companies investing overseas, or simply holding back instead of investing in the Indian economy. Industrial production declined for the first time since the 1990's during the 12 months ending in March 2014. It is in this vaccum in leadership since 2012, and a seriously troubled economy, that the 2014 parliamentary elections were held. Impatient young voters- with about 100 million new young voters added to voting lists- gave Modi and the BJP party an absolute majority and mandate for coming up with new solutions to India's problems in jobs and infrastructure....

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Volcker says that even with all the fuss about the length of the Volcker Rule, its important to remember that the regulation itself is only 35 pages. And he says that lawyers for the banks are not honest when it comes to this, because they spent a lot of time finding holes in the rule and were working to add complications to it, and now they are turning around and saying that the Volcker Rule is too complicated. Asked about Dodd-Frank, Volcker says that it does make the U.S safer in a financial crisis because of the crisis resolution process set up under Dodd-Frank legislation. A bank fails and the resolution is clearly laid out- the government takes over and liquidates it, or merges it or sells it. Stockholders don't get a bail out, management is fired, and creditors have to take losses. A lot still depends on having vigorous and alert regulators. He sees two large problems, the Euro crisis and the U.S. deficit, which need strong action. Volcker remains perplexed by why the situation of huge disparities in income growth has not been expressed to a greater extent- on one side the lack of growth in income for the average family in 10-15 years and the other side having the huge increase in incomes at the top end. He does not know of any years when this was as big as it is now- except 1928, 1929....

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The WSJ's Juan Montes, in an exceptional report from Mexico City, tells the story behind a landmark achievement for Mexico- Pacto Por Mexico of Dec. 2, 2012. The major political parties of the right, centre and left forge an agreement for the way forward for Mexico- beyond monopolistic pricing and industry structures in Mexico that hurt consumers, to increase foreign investment and new technlogies to modernize the national oil company Pemex operations, change labor laws, and create a climate for higher growth. The pact is broad ranging, shows a grasp of the problems facing modern Mexico, and ranges from anti-monopoly laws to getting junk food out of schools considering Mexico's high obesity and diabetes rate. It covers 95 goals. It is hard to overstate the significance of this achievement for modern Mexico. Montes describes the initiative of the PRD leader Zambrones in rebranding his PRD party as a moderate left wing party open to new ideas. This happened after the departure of Lopez Obrador from the PRD to form his own party in September. Zambrano and PRD moderates brought up the idea based on what happened in a landmark deal in Spain in 1977, that helped transform Spain after decades of stagnation under the Franco dictatorship. Around July after the presidential election, PRD president Zambrano, and the PRD's Jesus Ortega, held meetings in Mexico City with Jose Murat, a senior PRI politician, and PRI president elect Nieto's top advisor, economist Luis Videgaray. The decision was made by president Nieto and economist Luis Videgaray to pursue the discussions for joint agreement on vital issues facing Mexico. The PAN party was brought into the discussions. By mid-September nine people from the PRD, PRI and PAN started work on a draft agreement at Murat's home. The ground rules were set for discussions to be private, to have agreement on all points or assume nothing had been agreed, and not let current events disturb the talks. The nine participants set up the broad principles, and then a group of three, one from each party was given the task of coming up with the right language for the pact. By the end of November a 34 page draft was put together. A night of intense work to 2 a.m. followed the inauguaration of president Nieto on Dec. 1, with the Pact ready for announcement on Dec. 2, 2012. The Pact is a landmark achievement in its potential for changing Mexico and creating decades of economic progress similiar to that envisioned by the Spanish parties for Spain in 1977. ...

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A plan appears to have been put in place by the U.S. and the European Union countries to strengthen the American position in negotiations with Iran underway in Istanbul. The impact on oil prices and on U.S. and E.U. growth as a consequence of higher oil prices, especially when the eurozone countries faced lowed growth, was one of the ways Iran hope to blunt the tightening of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program. It now appears from information released by the International Energy Agency that a plan was implemented by the Saudis in recent months to build up reserve supplies. At the same time a similiar effort was being implemented to increase production in Iraq and Libya so that it would add to reserves added by the Saudis. Daily output from OPEC countries increased by about 1.4 millon barrels in the Sept 2011- March 2012 period, as the confrontation with Iran took shape with increasing pressure using sanctions on Iranian oil, according to the IEA. Of this 1.4 million barrels a day increase, one third is from the Saudis and the rest from Iraq and Libya, according to IEA. In March 2012, OPEC oil production increased by 135,000 barrels a day to 31.4 million barrels, mostly from higher output in Iraq. The Saudis have filled up domestic oil inventories and placed an additional 10 million barrels of oil in storage close to markets in Europe and Japan. This suggests that this was part of a quietly implemented plan in cooperation with the U.S. and the EU countries to increase the effectiveness of sanctions and protect global oil supplies from disruptions; even as the U.S. pressured Japan, S. Korea, India and other countries to reduce purchases of Iranian oil. The economies of India, the EU and other countries were already beginning to feel the impact of higher oil prices in the 1st quarter of 2012....

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The Russian economy will contract by 10% and the Ukraine economy by 20% in 2022, says the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The bank was setup to revive Eastern European economies after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2023 the Ukraine economy is expected to rebound by 23% with assistance from US and EU. The Russian economy faces long term challenges with lack of access to technology from EU and US and the loss of well educated workers leaving Russia, and is expected to face a long period of stagnation. The war has affected 60% of Ukraine's economic output and electricity consumption is down by 60%, with one third of Ukraine businesses closed, factories shutdown. Ukraine will be a much poorer country because a lot of stock has been destroyed, says Beata Javorcik, EBRD's chief economist. For Russia the drag on the economy will be present even if a peace agreement leads to lifting of sanctions says EBRD. Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Armenia will also feel the effect of the slowdown with loss of remittance from workers in Russia. The faster shift to renewable energy and LNG in Germany, and a similar boost to renewable energy with COP26 Glasgow getting a boost in EU and the US, will result in loss of value of oil assets in Russia. With loss of technology access from US and EU Russian conversion away from a energy based economy will be slowed. All this is likely to lead to a difficult period for Russia. This means there are no gainers from this war, including China, which could see a further acceleration in US and EU restructuring of the supply chain away from China, leading to further slowing of growth. ...

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A complete reversal of the Monroe Doctrine (US president Monroe 1817-1825) policies -that kept the American continent north and south free of colonial European powers- is an affront to the US and has cost the US in Latin America. With fentanyl deaths and drug trafficking, migrant trafficking, interference by foreign powers in the Americas In Cuba, Venezuela and other countries, and ports owned by China in South America.  Hong Kong magnate Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings sale of Panama Canal ports to Black Rock for $23 billion takes place on March 4, 2025. The two ports on both sides of the Panama Canal will now be in American hands. Li Ka Shing started out fleeing from the devastated China of the Sino Japanese war to the British colony of Hong Kong, left school at 15 to work and started out with a small plastics factory in 60's Hong Kong. He then branched out into real estate as Hong Kong's economy expanded, and in the 2000-2020 period with rapid growth of China with US assistance (Clinton and Bush administrations) moved to acquire most of the ports and container terminals in the world. It is these ports that are now being bought back by the US. 23 ports and container terminals in 43 countries will now be sold back by Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings back to Black Rock under an agreement. None of this could have happened under the lackadiasical policies of previous administrations that led to first affront and then disastrous effects of migrant trafficking and drug trafficking in this hemisphere.   ...

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President Xi Jinping to introduce regulation into what was once an essentially unregulated economy, including a housing sector with financial risks built on ever increasing leverage, are expected to slow the economy to 6-7% growth rate. This is seen as acceptable to address the other goals president Xi sees as essential for the long term future of China. China urban is what most people in the US and Europe see. This is only 60% of China. The other 40% is stuck with lower incomes at about a third of urban areas and with few opportunities. Within urban areas there are the people with moderate incomes who are spooked at housing prices and living in small flats, and now with the pandemic there are many more who are unemployed as China lacks an unemployment insurance system like the US. This and Xi's close connections to farmers in Hebei, and other provinces where he has spent time as party secretary, mean he will now give all of China's people an even chance for a better life. Just as in the US with president Biden, president Xi is tackling social and economic problems left after decades of tech driven expansion aggravated income inequality and poverty. ...

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U.S. Federal Reserve officials are likely to take a wait and see approach based on incoming data following a likely rate increase in December 2018. Jerome Powell, Fed chairman and other members are likely to want to see how the economy is holding up from moves already taken. Under this evolving data dependent approach the Fed will step back from the predictable path of quarterly rate increases of the last 2 years.

Inflation has softened in the last quarter of 2018 with falling oil prices, reducing the Fed's sense of urgency. The dents in the stock market have not changed the situation of low unemployment and strong growth.

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China's GDP growth of 8.7% for 2009 is based on private sector investment in housing and infrastructure spending through the stimulus funds. Now with a asset price bubble developing from excesssive lending in 2009 the government is trying to slow bank lending. Experts see a situation similiar to Japan, as an asset price developed there in the 1980's after rapid industrialization. Even though China will still be a developing country after this phase of growth. Property prices are going up by 20% a year in the major cities. And with it making housing unaffordable for most people except the top 20% of the people who comprise about 120 million. This raises issues of equitable growth for Beijing. Much of the rest of the country is being left behind when it comes to housing and in other areas like health care.

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Section 230 is a law passed in 1996 that makes the Social Media Companies and Media companies such as Meta and Google and others to have no liability for content posted on their sites. This has allowed these companies to grow and develop monopolies on the internet. Here CSPAN covers the hearings in the US Senate today December 9  with the following US Senators speaking at a Senate hearing on Online Safety for Children. Senator Whitehouse of Rhode Island describes the biggest problem as being the Section 230 which needs to be removed. The following mothers who are Senators and mothers or grand mothers of children were very vocal on this point- Katie Britt-Alabama, Martha Blackburn-Tennessee, Ashley Woody-Florida (former Attorney General of Florida).  Senators who are fathers or grandfathers of children speaking are-Josh Hawley-Missouri,      Whitehouse-Rhode Island, Bluementhal-Connecticut, Corbyn-Texas, Chuck Grassley-Iowa. Senator Whitehouse says-  "I understand Senator Graham was with respect to getting rid Of Section 230 Um, I strongly believe that Section 230 has long outlived its use, and it is now a real vessel for evil. That needs to come to an end. Um, the laws that Section 230 protects these big platforms from are very often laws that go back to the common law of England. that we inherited when this country was initially founded. I mean, these are long lasting, well tested. Important Legal constraints that have They've met the test of time, not by the year, by the decade, but by the century. And yet because of this crazy Section 230, these Ancient and highly respected doctrines just don't reach these people. And it really makes no sense that if you're a Internet platform you get treated one way. You do the exact same thing. And you're a publisher, you get treated a completely different way. And so I think that the time has come. I think it's pretty widely known that there were a core 4 of us. Ready to proceed with a bipartisan bill 2 and 2. And a A lot of work, important work, good work, valuable work has gone into making sure that other members of the committee and other members of the Senate have a chance to look at that and decide whether they want to join or not. And I'm at the stage right now where I think we just need to go." The Online Safety Act passed overwhelmingly in the US Senate recently still languishes in the House of Representatives. Ostensibly because of free speech but really because of monopolies and campaign contributions, and beyond this because of the idea that rapid internet growth gives the US economic and business leadership in the world. That is not how it has turned out instead by weakening the education of the children of the Nation this has created the idea in China and other nations that the US's period of world leadership has passed. In the overall scheme of things social media has weakened education in America as children of the Nation spend countless hours away from classroom education on their smartphones. Australia and other countries including China regulate the use of the smartphones and internet social media for children under the age of 14. This regulation strengthens education in these countries at the same time that the absence of limits weakens education competitiveness in America, and creates the idea that America's days of leadership in education have passed.The loss of this leadership means the loss of American leadership in the world in a decisive way. ...

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Richard Barley points out that Italy has some breathing room even as the ten year yields on Italian debt reaches 6.15%, up 1.5 percentage points in 2011. Existing Italian debt has an interest rate of 4% and an average maturity of 7 years, according to Morgan Stanley. This means higher interest rates on new debt will take some time to have a serious impact. Fitch's estimates are that if 10 year yields on Italian debt went up to 7%, interest payments would go up to 6.1% of GDP by 2015 from 4.8% of GDP. This gives Italy some time to come up with solutions for competitiveness and growth issues. Italy's growth rate was only 0.1% for the 1st quarter of 2011, and debt is 119% of GDP. Italy also has a primary budget surplus which puts it in a better situation than other southern European economies.

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Chinese president Xi Jinping is learning from the country's Covid experience in the way Biden and Democrats learned from their initial push for tighter restrictions in 2020-2021. Most covid restrictions, quarantines, testing is being lifted in China and efforts are being made to stabilize the economy hurt by frequent lockdowns, and a new path is being taken that responds to the Covid lockdown fatigue of the people.  This will lower Chinese growth below the central bank forecast of 3.3% for 2023, yet it also offers a learning curve for the Chinese leadership and new government that was put in place after the CCP party congress in 2022. This may be experimental in the short run but offer benefits for China and the world in the long term. For the first time it means China's trade tensions with the US are turning the corner in a way no number of tariffs and rhetoric could do between the two countries. The evidence- China's exports to the US have declined by 25% already in the last few months. Exports to the EU have declined as well by 11%. China's trade surplus in November 2022 showed a drop to $70 billion from $85 billion in October. ...

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Value added industrial output in China increased by only 4.4% in August, showing deteriorating economy. Fixed asset investment outside rural areas, was up to 5.5% in Jan-August 2019 compared to year earlier period. Premier Li Kequiang says "Against the backdrop of a complicated international situation and given the higher  base of comparison, it is not very easy for China to still sustain a medium to high growth speed of above 6%." 
China's economy expanded at 6.3% in the first half of 2019- the government's target is between 6 and 6.5%.

In the light of this situation in the economy China is taking aflexible approach to trade negotiations with U.S. trying to separate issues of competition and technology of the long run from trade, and seeking areas of agreement after the rhetoric of the past 6 months.

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Alan Reynolds of the Cato Institute questions the value of QE II when it pushed up commodity prices, lowered the value of the dollar, and acted as an anti-stimulus by slowing growth in the private economy.

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The U.S. unemployment rate drops from 5.8% in Nov. 2014 to 5.6% in Dec. 2014, according to the Labor Department. But hourly earnings failed to register growth. Average hourly earnings declined in Dec. 2014 from the prior month, and increased by only 1.7% over the prior year, just a little bit above the inflation rate of 1.3%. Overall 2.95 million jobs were created in 2014. Yet 8.7 million Americans looking for a job could not find one. The U.S. Federal Reserve officials see tepid wage growth as a sign of slack in the labor market. The Dec. 16-17 Fed meeting minutes show that "most participants saw no clear evidence of a broad based acceleration in wages." The labor force participation rate is also stuck at a low level- 62.7% in Dec. 2014. The U-unemployment rate that includes involuntary part time workers and workers marginally attached to the labor force was at 11.2% in Dec. 2014. This includes workers too discouraged to look for work and people working parttime because they could not get full time work. It is steadily dropping from 16.6% in 2010 to 14.4% by 2012, 13.1% by 2013, and now 11.2% in 2014, showing steady improvement but still high....

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Lego bricks are wildly popular in many countries including the U.S. Lego has seen "supernatural" growth in the last 8 years, according to Soren Torp Laursen, who heads the North American operations. Growth is now slowing, just as the Lego movie has achieved box office record for 3 weeks at No. 1. Data from NPD Group show U.S. consumer sales up 1% to $1.35 billion in 2013, giving Lego 7.8% share of U.S. toy market. Total sales were $4 billion in 2012. New products led to a surge in U.S. sales in 2012 by 26%. German sales were up 4% in 2013 compared to 13% in 2012, Germany making up 10% of its total sales. Now Lego is bringing out Lego sets based on the movie. About half of the 40 billion bricks are made in a small town of Billund in Denmark.

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Non farm payrolls are up by 261,000 and the U..S. unemployment rate drops to 4.1% for October 2017, according to the Labor Department. A broader measure that takes into account Americans who are in part time work having difficulty finding full time work was at 7.9%. Yet wage growth remains sluggish. Inflation with food and energy cost inflation after the hurricanes taken out remains at less than 2% below the Fed target, to the surprise of Fed chairwoman Yellen and new chairman Powell.

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Mortgage and other loans taken out at lower interest rates, before the US central bank the Fed started raising rates  in March 2022, is a big part of US household debt. This fact is helping to soften the impact of the Fed's increase of rates by 5% over 16 months. The increase in rates helps savers and retirees earn more on savings kept in CD's. The cut in inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3% in July 2022 helps increase the purchasing power of money. It also helps keep the US economy stronger than other world economies, with the Biden economic plan of increased business investment underpinning strong economic growth of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Wars are not a distraction or cost burden for the economy, with Biden shutting down 2 wars in the Middle East and South Asia. Lessons were learned and Biden has been resolute about this, also giving a singular focus to his plan for rebuilding and renewing America on multiple fronts, infrastructure, fighting climate change, inflation, business investment, and fair taxation so that the fruits of labor are shared equally by all of America's people. Doing this required a clear vision, resolute purpose, and a path to action for each step. Biden has done that in ways that only a few presidents have done in the past. In doing this he has shown that America stands for hope and a better future, a land as he never fails to repeat, a land of possibilities. ...

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Toyota sales were 9.75 million vehicles in 2012, up 23%. Sales were up 27% in the U.S. market. Dealer margins were trimmed to give more sales incentives. Sales for 2013 are forecast at 9.91 million vehicles reflecting slower growth in China. A weaker yen will make Toyota more competitive worldwide in 2013.