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Any Asian conflict involving China would in a few months destroy Apple's value, CEO's would change quickly, and Apple policies change to shift entire production to India and the US in a rapid shift. Tim Cook would be seen as having gambled against America's interests, unresponsive and failing after repeated warnings.  Apple's goal of sourcing from India by 2027 a mere 26% of its iphones, means that a decade after USTR Lighthizer and DJT started the task of reshoring manufacturing to US and allies in 2016, the No. 1 outshoring company would still be making 75% of its dollar value iphones in China. A degree of overconcentration that would make no sense considering that Apple's 75% of manufacturing would be entirely at risk in 2027 after repeated warnings and inaction. The only option for Tim Cook in 2025 is to come up with new goals of shifting a minimum of 50-60% of its dollar value product manufacturing for iphones to India by 2027. . Tim Cook as Apple CEO has done little to prevent the overconcentration of manufacturing in China since 2016. About 10 years after DJT was elected to bring manufacturing back to India or close allies the simple idea of diversification was not implemented. Why? Having set up this system starting in 1998, a system that did not exist before that tiem when Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook with a winning formula to Make in China, a country just emerging from its Communist phase of failed state economy. By 2008 in 10 years the infrastructure was built in a backward largely agricultural economy that was rapidly modernizing under a market economy with state run capitalism under the Communist Party experiment. The Bush Obama 16 years were ones with America not responding to the challenge posed by this new system which could create huge surges in production capacity with focus on key technologies and flood markets. The next decade after 1998-2008 was one of rapid growth of this experiment which combined with design and engineering in the US generated few jobs in manufacturng in the US, but huge profits with huge margins fro a low cost base with a high image and technology innovation product. Lighthizer, Navarro, Jamieson had already sounded the alarm for American manufacturing and loss of jobs in 2016.  America's deindustrialization was becoming a bigger challenge by 2020 so that president Biden continued the policy of reindustrializing. In 2025 China 2025 Plan that was a warning in 2016 is already a reality with China flooding the world in solar panels, and ready to flood the markets overseas with electric cars. Apple may only get a reprieve, this exemption is not the same as the last one. National security is an issue, key technologies need to be protected. There is only one more opportunity to rebuild American manufacturing and keep promises.     ...

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This report from Brazil is of major relevance to India in its growth efforts, and for aging societies such as China. In many ways showing the price countries and the people pay when growth is mismanaged. A major crisis is hitting countries such as Brazil as fewer young people and young workers support an aging population of retirees. This is to be seen in the money allocated in Brazil's budget- only 3% goes to infrastructure, 3% to education, health gets 7%, and retirement system takes up as much as 43% of the budget. Increasing retirement obligations are nearly bankrupting the Rio de Janeiro state government.  At the core of this crisis is a steadily aging population that is happening now faster than in the developed world. Also part of this is the fact that fertility rates have dropped rapidly in Brazil, the rest of Latin America, and in China. It took just 27 years in Brazil and 11 years in China for fertility rates to drop from 6 to below 3, creating a situation where there are fewer young people to join the workforce as retirees live longer and the retired population increases. This report shows that it took 82 years for the fertility rates to drop from 6 to 2 in the U.S. so that the U.S. had a longer period in which to build up infrastructure.  Only 50% of Brazil's sewage is treated, and sanitation systems need investment. The average adult has about 8 years of schooling. An unfunded and unfundable social security system means infrastructure, health and public services such as transportation will remain unfunded for years to come. China's policymakers have done far better by building infrastructure rapidly yet face the same squeeze of aging population lower fertility rates as China's modernization continues. India needs to learn from such failures and successes in framing its own policies. Unrealistic giveaways or promises such as Brazil's retirement age of 55 and poor priorities of soccer stadiums in the northeast over sanitation, health, education, have a steep price. Good intentions are not enough as the Workers Party in Brazil granted pensions to farmers and informal workers without generating the sustained growth needed for funding the pension system, with $3 billion paid in and $36 going out for this added benefit.    ...

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T.S.R.Subramanium, India's most senior civil servant and his thoughts about Indian development, the civil service politicians and the judiciary, expressed in abook titled GovernMint in India. He was Cabinet Secretary under three prime ministers. He is interviewed here by the WSJ New Delhi Bureau chief, Paul Beckett. He talks about the timidity of the civil service in the face of political ineptitude and the political class using government to benefit themselves without the checks on them. He says the politicians have come to dominate the civil service , have no checks on what theydo, and are twisting the civil service for their own gain. He knows of three cabinet level ministers in the last government that made money from their positions, with nothing done about them. Proble here could be that the framers of the constitution had some tough problems to deal with. If they made the civil service all powerful, could it turn out that the civil service like in Japan would not bend to the wishes of the people? And if they made the civil service subject to the wishes of the people the politicians could use it for their own narrow purposes and affect the task of delivering essential services and progress to the people. They chose the latter. Its true that the British civil service was disciplined and honest but they did not have to respond to the wishes of the people. The only safety valve left by the framers was in the electoral process and the wisdom of the people in throwing out politicians who did not deliver. The problem of dignity and national purpose in politics had to be left to the people themselves, their leaders and the thinking public in the society. He sees the judiciary as having failed too, in controlling the politicians. And he sees part of the problem in that the judiciary stems from the same English educated class as the bureaucrats. Says T.S. R. Subramanium, the political class is the only one that is not constrained by checks and balances, follws no effective code of conduct, and considers itself king. Subramanium's solution of a messiah type figure, is quickly disapproved of by all his colleagues, and he takes pains to clarify that what he means is someone who can get the public backing to cleanse it. ...

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India has learned lessons from past health epidemics- the plague Gujarat 1994, avian flu H5N1 in 2005-2006 Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, swine flu H1N1 Pune, and more recently MERS. The Indian Express looks at past epidemics, how they were tackled and what India learned from them. Major improvements in sanitation and hygiene since then and advances in medicine, public health.  Experience was gained. The municipal commissioner of Thane near Mumbai was district collector of Jalgaon during the avian flu epidemic. He used quarantine to restrict transmission of infected material. He shifted bus stands, closed weekly markets, and had health workers check symptoms in a 3 kilometre radius area. His message for today- have a contingency plan, track, test and treat people, stay focused, not panic, and know exactly what has to be done. Moving migrant crisis today was also seen in Surat, 1994, with the plague epidemic when migrant workers left the city. The government had to use paramilitary units in 1994 to quarantine the entire area. During these earlier epidemics the Indian Council of Medical Research and other medical organizations played a significant role. One of the lessons learned from the H1N1 epidemic that originated in Mexico was the need for effective surveillance and real time reporting so that the pathogen can be recognized in real time and tests done at labs to determine what it is, followed by effective response through isolation of region and patients. Dr. Pradeep Awate, Maharashtra's surveillance officer, says robust surveillance systems are important to understand the magnitude of the problem and strategically place resources. The strategies put in place for the Nipah virus in Kerala state by its Health Department in 2019 are the same ones now being used for cornonavirus - contact tracing and management of persons under quarantine. ...

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DJT was asked if China's celebration of Victory Day with Russia recently in Tianjin had any message for the US. He said he did not see it that way, that US has good relations with China. In this context the Smithsonian Museum exhibit on military history of the US shows a real aspect of the World War II in loss of life- Russia 17 million dead, China 11 million dead, Germany 10 million dead, Poland 5 million dead, Japan 2.5 million dead, US 1 million dead, UK 800,000 dead. Russian and Chinese losses of 28 million dead are 15 times the losses of US and UK combined of 1.8 million dead. With the scale of losses of such magnitude Victory Day celebrations in Tianjin can be seen in the context of this shared history and major losses overcome as much of the world knows with US help. A sobering view is that the colonial powers Imperial Japanese Army, French and British policies caused famines in World War II leading to 6-7 million deaths in India, Indonesia and Vietnam which is 4 times the 1.7 million US and UK deaths. Views of China in the Context of the Ukraine War and Russia are very different in US than in France and Europe and are widening in differences in 2025. In the US as in this report in the WSJ China is seen as a trade partner and competitor with certain issues, many of China's university leaders and experts question the prospect of a long term alliance with Russia, and for DJT Russia is a nuclear power with which US seeks good relations and a political settlement of the Ukraine War. In France as shown in the article in Le Monde adjacent to this the European attitudes towards Russia throughout European history since 1700 of regional rivalry between France and Russia, Germany and Russia since 1900, Britain and Russia since 1700. FDR led the alliance with Russia against the Nazis and Imperial Japanese in the 1930's and 1940's. Herbert Hoover led the effort to bring relief supplies and aid to Russian in the period of the Civil War after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. With China America kept the government in China functioning as it retreated from the invasion by the Imperial Japanese Army in the 1930's and 1940's and the only hope with Gen. Joe Stilwell in China alongside Chinese leaders. ...

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The new faces in the Biden administration on economic policy are Janet Yellen, as head of the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and Cecilia Rouse, a Princeton labor economist, as head of the Council of Economic Advisors. In this report WSJ looks at the economic policies of the new administration after Mr. Trump rejected globalization and international trade agreements that were not in America's interest or that hurt American workers.  Informal conversations with experts suggest WSJ says, that globalization is now suspect as a way that benefitted China and other countries including Germany, and hurt the U.S. France, Britain and other countries in Europe that were not strong exporters. This hurt their industries which were eroded by imports resulting in the three decades long destruction of communities across these countries that depended on manufacturing. It has also hurt countries like India that let their markets be dominated by Chinese imports, with a reversal of policy in 2020 with self reliant economy under "Atman Nirbhar" policy as the new goal. Mr. Trump's tactic in this trade war was to fight back to regain America's position in manufacturing with tariffs on imports. The trade deficit had to come down with China just as it had done with Japan decades earlier. This was starting to happen. One problem in bringing down the imports was the increase in the value of the dollar, as Janet Yellen has noted. The new policies will look at what the effective policy will be while keeping this goal in mind.  Both Yellen and Ms. Rouse have spent years studying labor markets and Ms. Rouse is quoted here as saying: " With open trade there are winners and losers. The losers are really losing, and we need to take care of them and take on more nuanced models of international trade as a result." Other experts from the earlier Democratic administrations such as Prof. Frankel at Harvard say that there needs to be increased focus on American workers left behind by trade, technology and unequal education, with more spending on preschool, infrastructure and health. All this suggests that there will be a continuation of U.S. policy in challenging Chinese use of globalization to advance its interests, chastening Americans on the use of the very word globalization which can mean different things to different people based on how they can gain advantage. The word may even be entirely dropped in favor of what the policies are and what they do for the American worker, American communities including small towns, and the American people, spelling each of these out every time supply chains and the global economy is mentioned. The new administration will get an opportunity to show that it too can come up with new ideas and action plan to strengthen American manufacturing and jobs. It will also have to show substantial results as people have lost patience with Democrats and Republicans on the lack of progress in rebuilding America's leadership role in the world economy, and in defending American workers and factories. Clinton, Obama and Bush all offered false promises on trade with China ignoring the damage this had done to American leadership in the world economy. Clinton with support for China's entry into the World Trade Organization, Bush with foreign wars and costly diversions and regulatory failures with banks that led to the 2009 deep recession hurting Americans, and Obama with the lack of will and interest in America's leadership role in the world as the dominant nation in manufacturing,   ...

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Russians vote in 2021 parliamentary elections. With 30% of votes cast the United Russia party of Mr. Putin wins 45% of votes cast, followed by the Communist party of the Russian Federation with 22%, and the Liberal Democratic party getting 8%. Russia has mixed voting system with half the seats directly elected from party lists, and the other half assigned to individual candidates. United Russia had 334 seats out of total 450 seats in the outgoing parliament. Putin will need over 300 seats in the new parliament to get the two thirds majority to enact changes to the constitution. Putin needs this to extend his current term which ends in 2024.  Putin draws most of his support from the older part of the population that has seen the hardships imposed following the collapse of Communism around 1990. This led to collapse of the ruble currency, increase in poverty, an effort by oligarchs to capture state enterprises, and a chaotic period for law and order. Shockingly during that period even life spans of Russians declined as reported in the WSJ. Liberals who supported the shift to democracy had not anticipated all the ill effects of introducing capitalist free market systems in such a sudden and free fall way. Such sudden shifts to free markets are now better understood and seen as the wrong way, as western capital markets fail without inbuilt protections, safety net for workers and retired people, and are subject to serious distortions if no vigilant authority exists. This is in reality not a free market but a market captured by the few, in the interests of the few. Once this was clear retired people, pensioners, military, law enforcement, and liberals realizing what had happened shifted support to United Russia founded by Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin faces the typical situation faced by incumbents over long periods where there is a sense of the need for change. Yet the pandemic and other economic crises that could happen in the event of mismanaged economy are never really too distant for countries such as Russia, China, India that are developed but yet have not the strong industrial base of US, Germany, France. Such economic crises including the ruble currency and Russian energy companies were better managed under Putin than under the chaotic period following the collapse of communism and the introduction of so called "free markets" that were anything but. During the recentfree fall in oil prices Putin was able to manage a transition period with the help of president Trump who negotiated a price for oil with the Saudis to protect US shale oil workers and companies, as well as Russian workers and oil companies. As a result Russians particularly young people look for alternative places to vote for opposition parties such as Liberals, Communist party, and other parties. But the majority of Russians including those working for state energy and other state companies tend to stay with Putin's choices for state, regional and federal administration and for parliament. Nationalist spirit also provides additional support as Putin has restored Russia's status as one of the important nations in the world. Some missteps such as interference in US elections have led to a loss of some of this international influence, yet even president Biden understands the situation in Russia and is willing to work with Putin with new rules of conduct Under the Russian system about 70% of the laws are not made by parliament but are done by the government and the administration of the president and then go through parliament. In addition to parliamentary vote there are 6 governor races and three races for heads of regional republics. ...

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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What does Business in the Republican party think of J.D. Vance?   WSJ says the book "Hillbelly Elegy" is about cultural dysfunction not globalization or economic dislocation. Vance's book is about growing up in Appalachian part of Ohio around 2000. Lyrarc Retrospect shown on this page has a Wash.Post report of Robert Kennedy's visit in 1968 to poverty stricken Appalachian rural America in eastern Kentucky.  Running through Pennsylvania and Ohio to Tennessee. Mostly rural, mountainous low income and lacking roads, highways, and lacking schools, medical clinics. JFK and LBJ as presidents in the 1960's setup the Appalachian Regional Commission to lift it out of poverty. It increased income growth modest 4% above neighboring counties. Bush and Obama wars left this region and rural regions across the US neglected till Biden pulled out of Afghanistan and made rural America a top priority with the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to invest in it. It is as tough to tackle as the poverty in a similar forested and hilly part of eastern India called Orissa and Chattisgarh, which is only now receiving the attention of prime minister Modi in his third term. WSJ says J.D. Vance called mere rhetoric as no answer to such intractable problems in his Yale days, calling mere reference to cultural issues and immigration as forms of cultural heroin that would do little to change the centuries old poverty of the region.  Of the 39 year old senator J.D. Vance migration to MAGA, WSJ says it reminds them of Obama with only 2 years experience in the Senate- Vance has only a little over a year- who with lack of experience contested for the presidency of the US only to find Republicans poking Obama for seeking the presidency with such insignificant experience. This led to one of the least effective presidencies for lack of bipartisan support similar to that of Bush, both distracted by wars neither had the wisdom to not enter in the first place or to end quickly.   ...

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How to build a global port network with less cash- China's state owned Cosco and it's European ports network is an example of savy buying during financial crises, and when companies in Europe and the US were keen to make sales of ports. China simply integrated it into a vast exports network, using containerized terminal expansion modernization to build its manufacturing for export model. This was an extension of its domestic network where it added new port infrastructure to newly built rail and road connections.  India today is learning from this example. By 2000 the Chinese global export model was entrenched. It was also the year when the junior Bush president extended the wars of Reagan/Bush in Iraq of the 1980's to Afghanistan. China had a clear road ahead to build state of the art infrastructure of ports, logistics and exports over the next 10-15 years without any defense costs.  Piraeus in Greece south of Athens, a port concession acquired in 2004 Antwerp in Belgium (Austrian Netherlands), a minority stake in a container port acquired in 2008. In 2013 with sale of Terminal Link ports in a 49% stake deal by CMA of France holding 51%, China has stakes in Zeerbrugge and Antwerp, Busan South Korea, and Le Havre, Montoir and Fos in France, Xiamen in China, Miami and Houston in US. Rotterdam, Netherlands- Cosco acquired in 20126 a 35% stake in Euromax Terminal in Rotterdam from Hong Kong's Hutchison's Holdings for $125 million. Valencia and Bilbao majority  51% stake for $270 million, when JP Morgan paid as much as $950 million to ACS of Spain for these ports after the 2009 crisis led to Spanish divestments. Today in TEU's shipping containers China sends goods to Europe 10 times what it takes in through Spanish ports. Hamburg-In May 2023 Germany's Scholz overruled Habeck to let sale of 24.9% of Hamburg port to COSCO go through ...

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Lenovo shows a profit of $129 million for this fiscal year compared to a net loss of $226 million in the prior year. Revenues in the 1st quarter of 2010 went up to $4.32 billon from $2.77 billon with proft at $13 million. Margins are still under pressure because of growth in the lower priced PC market segment. Gross margins fell to 10.4% this year. To diversify Lenovo has introduced the Le Phone with China Unicom (Hong Kong) and sees sales of its mobile phones exceeding Apple's iPhone sales. It has also developed a prototype of a tablet PC in January 2010. PC shipments in China of $2 billon account for 45% of 3rd quarter revenues- up 67% in China's fast growing PC market. And Lenovo's plan is to expand sales in India, Russia and Turkey, from the current 5% in the fourth quarter ending March 31, 2010, to double digits.

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The lower oil prices in 2015 helps lower the current account deficit, which reached 7.9% in 2013, to 5% projected for 2015. Inflation is projected at 6.8%. GDP growth of 3.5% is expected for 2015. Turkey imports oil amounting to about 6% of GDP making for a large impact. Weakness is in the area of manufacturing, as Turkey's high tech exports are only 2% of manufactured exports, according to the Economist. About 1% of Turkish students have advanced computer skills. With problems in Brazil and Russia, money flowing into emerging markets is giving Turkey a second look after the emerging markets crisis in early 2014, when the lira slumped and interest rates had to be increased. The economy is recovering in 2015 from that situation. Two major beneficiaries of lower oil prices in emerging markets are India and Turkey in 2015, as both economies struggled with a large oil import bill.

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Improving business conditions and lower unemployment are helping president Macron of France recover from a drop in popularity following the yellow vest protests. Macron tackled the crisis by changing his style of governance from top down to a listener style with regular town hall meetings and meetings with people who were critical of his government. Recent poll from Elabe shows 33% approve of the French leader compared to 23% in December 2018 at the height of the yellow vest protests. The yellow vest protests were from people who felt left out at the lower end of the wage scale who were protesting increasing inequality. Macron also offered minimum wage earners billions of dollars and shelved his economic agenda till he had a better grasp of the French public's opinions. The recovery in the economy means Macron has more flexibility in taking up priority items in the national agenda. The French pension system is fragmented with about 43 different plans, with some plans for transport workers offering generous retirement by age 52. The system is also likely to go into deficit of 10 billion euros in 2022. Brazil has run into major economic crisis from generous pension plans taking up a major part of the budget. Macron wants to increase the number of years people work before they collect pensions, not just increase the retirement age of 62. Most major European countries are at 65 years retirement age, the U.S. is at 66 years. Transport workers paralysed the nation's transport system including subways and bus systems recently to keep their generous benefits. Macron sees himself as promoting a national agenda similar to India for GST, and other countries tackling shortfall in pension systems by increasing the retirement age, even though in the short run people who benefit from the old system oppose it. By addressing grievances at the lower wage levels and tackling glaring issues in the way benefits such as pensions are distributed Macron can win enough support to offset the opposition of entrenched groups. Lawyers will see their pension contributions double for lower benefits and are opposing the pensions overhaul. For decades workers in different groups or sectors took to the streets in protest making any changes even if well thought out and in the national interest hard to make in France. By taking on entrenched groups tactically and first letting the groups express their sentiment before announcing top down changes, and by being an empathetic listener, Macron is showing that he has learned a lot from the past year without losing his sense of what is best for France. It just maybe that in the short run there is an offset gaining some support from neutral groups and losing support of entrenched groups. Yet in the long run when the dust settles there is more overall support particularly through empathetic listening and carefully planned flexible approach to making changes that improve the economy and reduce unemployment. ...

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Friedman reviews Acemoglu and Robinson's new book, "Why Nations Fail." Acemoglu says that nations fail when wealth and opportunities are concentrated in the hands of few people, that a condition for societies to succeed is to create opportunities for more people. For this to happen it is important to create inclusive political and economic institutions. This is an important insight, but for Western society this is an insight as old as Adam Smith when he pointed out the importance of this aspect of western societies after the feudal period in his "Wealth of Nations." For Smith it was the failure to create inclusive societies that led to the gradual unravelling of societies in the river valleys of the Yangste and the Ganges, in China and India, of increasing poverty and the gradual disappearance of what constituted the middle class in India and China. Chapter 8 titled "Of Wages and Labor" in the "Wealth of Nations" makes specific reference to this.

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The Economist makes an important point about the violence, poverty and terrorism in failing states. The failure of civil institutions and civil wars in Africa, have led to complete breakdown. Similiar situations playing out in Afghistan and Pakistan. At the very least says the Economist, "there is evidence that economic growthin countries next to failing states can be badly damaged." Even in South Asia where India has forged ahead with high growth rates, one can say that economic development has not made a significant dent in the poverty, malnutrition and lack of infrastructure across the country. It adds that a weak goverment may lack the wherewithal to identify and contain a pandemic that could spread globally.

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Joanna Stern of the WSJ uses the original iPhone that came out in 2007 for one day in June 2017 and sees how it felt to use the introductory version. The original one worked on a 2G cellular network. It took about a minute for the president's Twitter feed to fully load in the old phone's Safari browser, it now takes 5 seconds. A lot has changed with the smartphone revolution in ten years. Lunch spot search results, Stern points out, might take longer than the time to eat lunch in the Maps App with that old phone. No emojis, predictive text, no Siri, and no third party apps, no Apple Music or Spotify, all that came later. The 2 megapixel camera took decent shots but not without good light. What is useful in Joanna Stern's little experiment is that it makes one reflect on how quickly people forget, how so much is now taken for granted as smartphones change the way people live their lives and interact with technology on a daily basis. Not mentioned here is how common smartphones have become with the Android versions made in China offering so much more for the budgets of ordinary people. And how it has changed the lives of billions of people in China, India, other parts of Asia and Latin America, bringing them into contact with the outside world. What is also interesting in this sense is that what took a huge effort over many years and many disappointments- the idea of a touchscreen that works- shows what an idea and the courage to persist in the face of innumerable hurdles can accomplish. See the link to how  Steve Jobs accomplished this. Daisuke Wakabayashi talked with Apple engineer Greg Christie in his article-"Apple Engineer on iPhone's Birth," Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2014. Christie had worked on a digital personal assistant at Apple in 1996, one that had tried the first touch screen Apple made. The device failed in the market. In 2004, eight years later the touch screen is the idea Jobs had Christie work on again. Many frustrations and obstacles later the first smartphone was developed by 2007. It took 10 years and undaunted effort which is the Apple story under Jobs. ...

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The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

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President Goodluck Jonathan as "Mr. Clean" aroused many of the same hopes now aroused by the election of Buhari as president of Nigeria. Under Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria's foreign reserves declined from $50 billion to $33 billion, and there is $1 billion in the sovereign wealth fund. About $20 billion in pilfering of state funds was reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria, but no action was taken by Jonathan. Indians may pride themselves on a better performance, yet prime minister Singh of India, seen as "Mr. Clean," allowed auctioning of telecom licenses in the second term, that had to be cancelled because of corruption. Throughout emerging markets not just in oil producing countries, poverty remains entrenched, because funds that should go into infrastructure and services are misused, which creates a disincentive for foreign investment, further adding to the problems in these countries. India and Nigeria are the two fastest growing countries in the planet, and the unspoken fear is that the demographic dividend with so many young people will be wasted by corrupt and inefficient management of the economy and resources of the two countries. The time lost in the last years of the Singh administration and the four years of the Jonathan administration will never be regained, the hopes of millions of young people are dashed again and again, and the goodwill of Europe and the U.S. eager to participate with the latest technologies in the development of the two countries, as they have done in China, is wasted....

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South Korea never had the benefit of representation in parliament under the Japanese the way India had in the British parliament for Naoroji and others by the 1900's, political participation in the 1920's, assembly elections in 1930's under the British. Democracy came to South Korea in 1948 in the middle of a huge war in the Korean peninsula with invasion from the North, leaving it without democratic traditions, and again in protests in 1960 against Synghman Rhee's military government. Then followed military governments by Park and Chun till 1988. Democracy is only 36 years old in South Korea since 1988. BBC gives this Special Report on President Yoon of South Korea how he was elected as a prosecutor of a right wing government and made Chief Prosecutor by left wing parties. After this appointment he investigated ministers in the left wing government. This increased his popularity but also alineated both the left and the right. Running for election as president of South Korea he won by less than one percent of the vote.  BBC talks to a Yoon primary school friend Lee who describes his interaction with his friend over many years- during which he make more introverted, angry and vehement, and after becoming president more authoritarian. The process is described by the BBC talking to other colleagues and friends of Yoon who worked with him. They found that he relied more and more on a close group of like minded right wing groups. After losing the parliamentary election by a big majority he became a lame duck but still stubbornly refused to talk to the Opposition leaders to work together. Soon he began to see them as his enemy watching too many one sided You Tube videos. The result was one day he declared martial law, creating a huge wave of  opposition by the public, the military and others. In 6 hours he had to withdraw martial law- ending his career when his impeachment was upheld today April 3, 2025 by the Constitutional Court. ...

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Each year malaria kills 500,000 people mostly in Africa, including 260,000 children. A vaccine jab for malaria has finally been developed. It took 34 years for Dr. Ripley Ballou, 70 years, to refine the technology while working at GSK in Britain to get this done. Ballou himself had malaria and could experience its debilitating effect. This made him resolve to find a solution. The vaccine jab is the first for a parasite and the first developed from scratch for African children. Its effectiveness wanes over months so that its use is intended for the rainy season. By giving 3 shots just before the rainy season when malaria is at its peak it can reach 70% effectiveness, say British experts. It is cost effective as other prevention measures as nets over beds- it will cost about $2 -$10. When combined with other anti-malarial medicines it is about 90% effective. Its safety is proven after having given 2.3 million jabs of the vaccine in African countries. Experts estimate it will prevent 5.4 million cases of malaria, from Mali to Kenya, and from India to Indonesia where malaria is still a danger. Malaria can repeat itself many times for the same person over a lifetime, increasing the health risks and damage to health. The vaccine was developed using technology that produces a protein that is also found on the outside of the malaria parasites in the early stages of its lifecycle. It exposes the immune system of a person to this protein to build up immune defenses. This British discovery will help African  Asian, and Latin American countries build confidence in their health systems ability to cope with dangerous diseases. In doing this it will improve the quality of life and combined with other health actions provide a better life in the poorest countries.   ...

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Senator Mitch McConnell, the U.S. Senate Majority leader, and Speaker Ryan, achieved a win in the U.S. Congress which is expected to set a new trend of bipartisan cooperation, as the House passed the bill in Dec. 2015 for $1.1 trillion spending with a vote of 316 to 113, and the Senate with vote of 65 to 33. The persuasion on the Republican side was based on giving Speaker Ryan a strong hand in negotiations with the White House in 2016. Ryan secured a lifting of the oil export ban for the Republican side in return for flexibility in spending. Ryan deftly sent the issue of Puerto Rico having access to bankruptcy laws to the committe chairmen to come up with a plan in March to get the needed votes. Democrats had pushed for aid to Puerto Rico. Also included in the bill that passed is giving more voice to emerging market countries China and India in the running of the IMF.

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Use of oil for transportation has increased from 30% ten years ago to nearly 50% in 2013, according to Sanford Bernstein, as more cars are added to China's roads. This makes it less likely that a slowdown in China's growth will affect demand for oil. Sales of passenger cars increased by 11% in January and February 2014. A study at France's central bank by Gauvin and Rebillard shows only a much smaller effect on oil prices from a hard landing of the Chinese economy, compared to the effect on metal prices. Passenger cars now make up two out of three vehicles on Chinese roads, according to LMC Automotive. The growth in cars is likely to continue, not just in China, but in other emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico and Russia. Metal consumption is different, as it comes mostly from housing, infrastructure and factories which are the most affected parts of the economy in China.

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Problems facing India as it searches for a way to modernize the country, build infrastructure, and create strong jobs growth. Glaring weaknesses are evident in a number of areas which have not been addressed: a weak public education system, food poverty for people at the lower end worsening with today's 10% food inflation, child malnutrition, weak infrastructure building capabilities, growth in services but not enough in manufacturing to create jobs, a growing black economy, and a general acceptance of illegal behaviour that has increased with the increase in opportunities for corruption and bribes in a growing economy. The political governance is weak. The dependence on smaller regional parties in ruling coalition governments weakens initiative at the federal government level. The general lack of new political leadership, and the failure to develop new leaders in the Congress party because of the six decades long presence of the Nehru family. Some striking facts- the role of the black or underground economy has actually increased over the years. Arun Kumar, chairman of the Center for Economc Studies and Planning at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, says his estimates show it was 40% of GDP by 1996, and 50% by 2006. This means more business activity evades direct taxes, and less money is available for investments in education, infrastructure and healthcare. It also indicates a widespread tolerance of illegal activity and corruption. The other striking facts are that the calorie consumption by the bottom of the 50% of the population has been declining since 1987, according to a 2009-10 economic survey by India's Ministry of Finance. The modernization of the country appears not to be following the path taken in East Asia- by Japan, S. Korea and now China- where people moved in large migrations from farms and rural areas to cities and manufacturing jobs, resulting in gradual urbanization. Manufacturing in India is only 16% of GDP in 2009, the same as in 1991, according to the World Bank. Certain regions are doing better than others- Gujarat and the Punjab in the north, Tamilnadu, Karnataka in the south- with large population areas in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar lagging behind badly. ...