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Critics say China uses debt trap diplomacy in Africa through its infrastructure investment projects. Silja Frohlich of DW.com speaks to Eric Olander of the non-partisan China Africa Project to make an assessment of what is happening. Olander says Africa is facing a demographic change of immense proportions with about a billion people that are being added by 2025. For African leaders what are their options- do they build the infrastructure that would lead to the industrialization that creates jobs for all these people, even as they use their children's future to borrow vast sums of money. Global and private markets would charge 7 times the interest that the Chinese are charging, says Olander. China has built roads, railways, bridges, hospitals, and other infrastructure for which there was not enough financing from other countries. Since the Belt and Road Initiative was launched 5 years ago it has built four new railways- the Mombasa-Nairobi railway, Addis Ababa-Djibouti (759 kms), Abuja- Kaduna (186 kms) and Angola's Benguela railway (1866 kms). China has also helped Africa to develop its options with alternative sources of investment helping it negotiate new investments from different sources as Kenya and Uganda are doing today.  At the conference in 2019 in Beijing President Xi offered cancellation of interest till 2018 for loans to Ethiopia. A new effort to introduce transparency and improve terms and offer debt forgiveness is underway to change China's image for investment in Africa. Olander sees China making a solid contribution over the past 10 years funded by Chinese money. ...

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The devastating floods have increased the urgency of securing financing for Pakistan to avoid any risks of debt default. This report in WSJ says Pakistan has negotiated $4 billion for the current fiscal year that began in July 1, 2022 with the IMF Board meeting to approve it on Monday Oct. 29, 2022. The IMF required Pakistan to secure the remaining additional funding for the fiscal year. For this part of the deal China has rolled over $10 billion in debt, Saudi Arabia $3 billion and UAE $2.5 billion. Saudis will provide $1.2 billion for oil on deferred payments basis. Saudis will invest $1 billion in Pakistan, and Qatar will invest $3 billion in Pakistan.

Finance Minister Ismail says Pakistan is not in danger of default now but it depends on the viability of the IMF program. The heavy monsoon floods have put a reported half of the country under water, and the economic impact says Ismail is about $10 billion.

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Wages in emerging markets such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia are rising following an increase in wages in China. Malaysia's government announced a minimum wage for the first time. China increased its minimum wage by 8.6% to 1260 yuan ($199) in January 2012. Shenzen region minimum wage was raised 14% to 1500 yuan, and Tianjin region's by 13% to 1310 yuan, according to Xinhua news agency. Rise in minimum wage has ranged from 40% in Thailand to 20% in Indonesia. The new minimum wage proposed by Malaysia's government is about 900 ringgit ($264-$297). In Thailand the new minimum wage is set at 300 baht ($9.78) a day, an increase of about 40%.

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U.S. president Trump announces U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization on May 30, 2020. Earlier the president had sent a letter to the WHO as a 30 day ultimatum and that he would reconsider membership if the WHO did "not commit to major substantive improvements within the next 30 days." The U.S. has given $450 million a year to the WHO compared to $50 million by China, yet China president Trump says has "total control over the WHO," showing deep seated dissatisfaction at the way the WHO has under current leadership has handled the coronavirus crisis and failed to take early action for an early warning system as were taken by earlier heads of the WHO such as Gro Harlem Brundtland of Norway during the H1N1 crisis in 2003, who was cited in Mr. Trump's letter.

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During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.

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A government report gives a second by second account of a high speed train collision in China on July 23, 2011. It shows major equipment failures, human errors, and confusion in communications.

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Foreign Minister Wadephul of Germany in India for talks on a free trade agreement that would double trade volume to $64 billion- September 2025. It is notable that German Foreign Minister is in New Delhi to improve relations and shift to larger trade relationship with India at the very time US under pressure from Europe and Germany, France is pushing India to shift away from buying Russian oil to other sources. Each side is aware of the complexities in the relationships. In the long run Germany under Merz will after the experience of China's support of Russian invasion in Ukraine, make the changes that never happened under Merkel- making India its major trade partner in Asia. By 2030 Germany trade's with India could exceed $100 billion.

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The Guardian's Greenhouse says the UAW sees the tariff action with 25% tariff on cars imported into the US starting April 2 2025, as a positive step.  Shawn Fain of the UAW who had the support of president Biden during his term 2020-2024 says DJT's actions match those taken by Biden to help working class Americans and the middle class. Supporting the president “for stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working-class communities for decades”. “Ending the race to the bottom in the auto industry starts with fixing our broken trade deals, and the Trump administration has made history with today’s actions.” Greenhouse is concerned that the way it is being implemented can create problems with tariffs on one day and off the next. The reason for the on again off again action was to give Mexico, Canada, and China time to respond with action they have not taken on fentanyl flows into the US, and Mexico time to address migrant trafficking across its borders. The US International Trade Commission study in 2024 on the 25% tariff on US auto imports cited by BBC shows it would reduce imports by 75%, increase prices by a modest 5%, and increase revenues of auto makers in the US by 5%. Figures such as prices going up by $6000 may apply to BMW's that are imported from Germany and carry high price tags for a very small very affluent customer group unrepresentative of the US automobile market. ...

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DJT administration 25% tariffs on Canada Mexico for not stopping fentanyl flows as domestic policy go ahead on March 4, 2025. This lays the ground to tackle aproblem that has led to 490,000 American deaths and devastated communities across the US - the flow of fentanyl into the US from Mexico, Canad and China. Separately an additional 10% tariff is going to effect on China on top of earlier tariffs on China.  The media keeps talking about this tariff as a economic action, not as action to stop all fentanyl flows as is repeatedly stated by DJT and the Administration. Most of the media has failed to talk about the fentanyl deaths over 12 years referring as one of the prominent media states as the "death of thousands" not giving the staggering number and the scale of the devastation of communities in America after the damage from the 2009 financial crisis caused by banks, the deindustrialization of America that was allowed to happen under Bush Republicans and Obama Democrats, and the covid pandemic crisis.  ...

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This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

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DW.com looks at the summit of international leaders in Beijing, from 40 countries as China promotes the Belt and Road Initiative to use the skills it has gained in building infrastructure in China to build much needed infrastructure in Asia and Africa. The Belt and Road Initiative is now part of the Chinese Constitution since 2017. Projects in Africa are part of providing a much needed building of infrastructure to meet the needs of a jump in population in Africa that would add a billion people by 2025. Better terms were promised including forgiveness of interest for Ethiopia, and more transparency set as the Belt and Road Initiative addresses concerns in the host countries.

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Friedman in the NYT says China overreached especially since 2012 on trade, technology transfers, and in relations with American allies Australia, India, Japan, and America underperformed for its people by not investing in infrastructure, in workers incomes and in health and public services, education. Underinvestment in the very structure and backbone of American society while billions were wasted in foreign wars and in misallocation of investments by Silicon Valley and other investors. The coronavirus failure to get adequate warning through WHO and China's cooperation for American teams to be admitted immediately after January 10 request by the U.S. for Wuhan was a turning point.  

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The main lines of the Message to Congress by the US president in 2025 related to flood of illegal immigration, and illegal fentanyl flows with deaths of Americans in the most vulnerable neighborhoods across 51 states over 12 years, 490,000 deaths, more than Vietnam. "The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new legislation to secure the border—but it turned out that all we really needed was a new president.” As it turns out the legislation Biden with Republicans led by Senator Lankford negotiated in Feb 2024 did not have the strong action taken in the first 100 days to deter illegal immigration and remove illegal immigrants endangering safety in American neighborhoods. That legislation did not have provisions to bring illegal fentanyl flows into the US to an end with strong action including tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China responsible for the fentanyl flows into the US. Transgender was another issue addressed in the speech with DJT clearly stating that their only two genders and against mutilation of bodies, with trust in God about the gender God placed us in as best for us. Other issues were about tariffs action going into effect on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 with all nations including India, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea. DJT cited India for high tariffs, South Korea with 4 times American tariffs, and European nations. The goal was to ensure a level playing field for the US to compete- "what they charge us, we charge them." As explained in an earlier article in the WSJ reciprocal tariffs in the world context mean commodities products would not have price increases for the US consumer, smartphones autos would increase but this would be temporary as these nations play fairly and create a level playing field, and these products manufacturing is shifted to the US. This would mean growth for US auto industry and smartphones coming from inside the US and from India offsetting concentration of production in China. Apple has told the president it will start making inside America investing hundreds of billions in the US from now on. ...

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Bangladesh is seen as doing better than India and Pakistan in life expectancy, hunger, fertility rates, and other key development indicators. The new Padma Bridge over the Ganges river operational in 2019 will link different parts of the country and is expected to add 1% to GDP growth. Other infrastructure projects are being planned with $30 billion in projects planned with China including a new port south of Chittagong. The Vision 2021 Plan plans to take Bangladesh out of the poorest nation group by 2021, the 50th anniversary of independence. Germany is the second largest donor and the gender equality in Bangladesh with coeducation in schools is seen by experts as unique among all Muslim countries. The growth of Dhaka and the social and economic change from 5 million garment workers, mostly women and rural could lead to social and cultural change that may be underestimated, says DW.com, providing the view from Germany. DW.com also warns that there are risks for Bangladesh in relying on remittances from Gulf countries, and in not diversifying so that it is not dependent on textile exports alone. Overall German view is that development aid works, and Bangladesh is welcomed from that perspective in Germany. ...

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President Xi Jinping's Made in China 2025 plan has spurred startups in electric car technologies, and raises concern about overcapacity. Electric cars is one of 10 sectors in the Made in China 2025 plan to promote global competitiveness for Chinese companies and domestic dominance. China Construction Bank and National Development and Reform Commission announced a $47 billion plan. Direct government subsidies of $15 billion over last 5 years have also increased the number of startups.

All automakers in China are required to produce electric cars. The electric cars sold in China at 777,000 make up half of the electric cars sold in the world. 

Local governments in places such as Anhui province have invested in electric car companies. One such company Singulato in Tongling, Anhui, is profiled here, with its first electric car expected by the end of the year priced at $43,000.

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After decades of neglect by different administrations and apathy at US semiconductor companies, semiconductor production investment in the US is beginning to take place. But the US Chamber of Commerce warns this is only a small trickle compared to investment in Asia. In a report on Nov. 22, 2021, the US Chamber of Commerce warns that only 6% of new semiconductor global capacity added over the next 10 years is expected to be located in the US, and urging that $52 billion in direct subsidies in the US for new chip factories be approved quickly by the US Congress. That the cost of owning a new chip factory in the US compared to South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore is higher by 30%, and in China by 50% is largely attributable to  the availability of subsidies in these countries from the government, and the absence of these incentives and subsidies in the US, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association report published last year. South Korea, China and Japan are now accelerating the pace of these subsidies and incentives. So that the US has a lot to do to make up for the years of neglect of its technology and competitive leadership. This WSJ Investigation report says South Korea aims to double its annual chip exports from today to $200 billion by 2030, and is offering billions of dollars in tax breaks, lower interest rates, other investments, including asking local governments to ensure adequate water supply for chip making. To keep up the US needs to change its entire approach to investments in critical industries from the approach and lethargy of the previous administrations since the 1980's.  US semiconductor companies, the Semiconductor Industry Association and the Biden Administration need to put together a concerted effort for US chip leadership beyond the slight increase from 16% to 24% the US hopes to gain in production of advanced chips by 2027 under the present plans cited in the WSJ. The Biden Administration issued a joint statement Nov. 23 that it is working around the clock with the US Congress, and more work remains to be done to "ensure that America remains the most innovative and productive nation on Earth." ...

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With the change in U.S. position on climate change, carbon emissions, and the move to raise tariffs on China's exports to the U.S. China faces a new dimension in its global relationships. Against this background China is shifting to a long term view of its relationship with India. China's new foreign policy leaders after the recent party Congress, vice president Wang Qishan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, now see the need for new partners in a multipolar global world for the long term as China and India countries with large populations and a need for stable world trade share common interests. Wang steers the Central Foreign Affairs Commission with Yang Jiechi as director. China now sees " a lot of shared interests, concerns and positions," in the words of China's Representative Lu, in the long term issues of globalisation, urbanization, pollution, and concern for achieving stable development with high growth rates.  China now takes the long view looking back at the unprecedented change of the last 100 years, as it maps out its plans for the future. The U.S. has challenged the ideas in the blueprint for development of "Made in China 2025," particularly as it relates to western transfer of technology to China. This has created a new situation for which China is still looking for answers, and ways to come up with new strategies for development without the nearly unrestricted access to western technology of the last 2 decades.  Shared positions on world trade with India and India's close relations with the U.S. add credibility in China's  negotiating positions with the U.S.                  ...

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The ruling party LDP's defense committee has decided Japan needs to strike North Korean missiles on the ground. There is a growing consensus on this. Another consensus is developing over the issue of protecting the Senkaku islands adminstered by Japan and claimed by China. 

Earlier in 2020 T12 missiles with 100 kilometres range were deployed on Miyako island between Kyushu and Taiwan. Now these missiles range will be increased to 300 kilometres to reach the Senkaku islands. China has sent patrol planes and ships near the Senkaku islands. Other cruise missile range is planned for 1000 kilometres as Japan Self Defense Forces expand their capabilities to take on more of the responsibility for defending the Japanese islands. In alliance with India and Australia this capability is being expanded to the entire Indian Ocean region to counter an expansionist China.

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A bill in the U.S. Senate in October 2011, which has bipartisan support, would push for China to correct an unfair trade advantage from keeping the value of the yuan low. The bill requires retaliatory tariffs for countries that have "misaligned" currency. This makes it possible for the U.S. Treasury Department to take action even if it finds no currency manipulation by China. This is a new approach as the U.S. Congress struggles to restore a level playing field in international trade.

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Caterpillar Inc. CEO and Chairman, Doug Oberhelman, discussed the acquisition of ERA Mining Machinery Ltd., a maker of roof supports for coal mines, acquired in June 2012 for $700 million. The acquisition was "botched" said Oberhelman, leading to the $580 million writedown for the 4th quarter of 2012 and the 55% drop in profits. Former managers of ERA misled Caterpillar about the condition of the business, and in Obherhelman's words "fabricated documentation to cover their tracks." Caterpillar later found inaccurate inventory data and improper revenue recognition. The move to acquire ERA Machinery was an effort to increase sales of mining equipment in China, the world's largest coal producer. As in the Autonomy acquisition by H-P the diligence in checking accounting and other data failed. Caterpillar lowered its forecast for 2013 based on slower growth in mining and decline in investment by mining companies. Mining companies are seeing management turnover over overextended mining projects that went sour. Revenue for 2013 is forecast at between $60 billion and $68 billion, compared to $65.88 billion in 2012. Analysts see risks in the forecast because mining equipment orders may not accelerate till 2015. Mining equipment forms a bigger part of Caterpillar sales and sales growth than construction machinery- sales of mining equipment increased by 14% to $5.78 billion in the 4th quarter 2012, even as sales of construction machinery declined 25% to $4.03 billion. In the U.S. construction machinery sales declined 17% to $1.45 billion in the 4th quarter 2012....

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IEA says 5500 gigawatts of renewables energy will be added in the next 7 years 2023-2030 three times the amount added in 2017-2023. With 60% of it coming from China.

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This report in WSJ looks at the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs retained by president Biden as the US seeks to reduce its overdependence on Chinese imports and bring back American manufacturing. This followed misguided policies of previous administrations since Clinton that weakened American manufacturing strengths. Have the US tariffs on Chinese goods worked? The WSJ graph with information from US Census Bureau shows that imports from China in 2022 going down to the levels in 2007 of about 16-17% as a share of US imports, down from a high of 21% before the Trump tariffs halted a rapidly rising curve. Imports from Germany, South Korea and Japan in 2022 were down slightly hovering around 4.5%. Imports increased from Canada and Mexico, the US's traditional partners in North America, around 13.5% as a share of US imports for each country. Also increasing were imports from Vietnam. Some of the imports from Vietnam are Chinese products shipped through Vietnam to evade tariffs, and it is not clear whether the figures from Vietnam have been adjusted for this. President Biden is looking at different scenarios in an effort to tackle inflation. One supported by Janet Yellen, an economist at US Treasury is for the US to relax some of the China tariffs. Most economists in previous administrations including Yellen failed to understand what surrendering American manufacturing to China on the scale and speed that happened would do to communities across America that depended on factory jobs. The devastation of these communities has led to increased divisions in America, weakened American manufacturing, and led to outflow of technologies vital for national security and national well being.  Republican senators, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are opposed to any relaxation of tariffs. Studies show the removal of the tariffs would have only a small impact on the consumer price inflation index reducing inflation by 0.26%. Lifting some tariffs on school supplies and summer bicycles as proposed by the US Chamber of Commerce would have little or no impact on the consumer price index for inflation. This is because the inflation is triggered by oil and gas price increases stemming from the Russian policies and invasion of Ukraine. This has also aggravated food and grocery costs  through blocking of agricultural imports from Ukraine. An additional factor was the increased demand after the pandemic easing in 2022, but that demand is already easing in July with glut in inventories at Walmart and Target, and excess warehouse capacity at Amazon. It would also send the wrong signal to China that the tariffs imposed by president Trump after a Section 301 trade investigation and based on improper loss of technologies to China are not being taken seriously by the US, says Republican Senator Hagerty of Tennessee. The Labor advisory committee to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai also opposes any such move after the serious damage done to US workers and to US national well being and security. This happened under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations with failed trade policies that ceded manufacturing to China. ...

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The effects of the Modiji development guarantee and "Sab Ka VIkas, Sab Ka Saath," in the Indian states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhatisgarh. In the Hindi speaking heartland and the northwest and west including Gujarat and Maharashtra it gives a new momentum to development efforts for the modernization of India. This helps set the roadmap for development  through 2024 and the years ahead. Compared to China the problems in India are how to integrate scheduled castes and scheduled tribes in a complex social fabric into the economic development efforts.

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By lifting all covid restrictions China makes a dramatic U turn in December 2022 from its zero covid policies. This Guardian editorial looks at the implications of the new policy. Testing booths are being dismantled. Quarantine rules and travel restrictions are significantly relaxed. The primary covid tracking app is scrapped.  The turnaround is truly astonishing in its speed says The Guardian. Because older people are less vaccinated than in other countries and the smaller effectiveness of domestic vaccines this still has risks when it is being done so suddenly that the health system has little time to prepare.

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Ideas for a two state solution are revived in 2023. The previous efforts that went astray are shown in this report in The Washington Post. It would have to be creative and bring together sentiment across the whole populations in the region that become weary of conflict, and through the efforts of the US, EU, China, India and Russia, Arab states that see the potential for and need to focus their efforts on development for their people following the pandemic- without the kind of conflicts in the Middle East that have diverted vital resources needed for development.