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Three factors make up risk in diversification and risk reduction through bonds in 2025 with the estimated 1.5 -3 trillion in spending planned by 2030 with $400 billion in 2025 alone. AI in corporate bond indexes up to 15% and reach 20% by 2030 vs 40% of stock indexes (JP Morgan),  AI risk in bonds diversification from over issuance and downgrades is something to look at. One cannot assume bonds will reduce risk in the same way as before with overissuance of corporate bonds to power AI spending by Tech companies. There is also the risk to the Nation in the massive capital misallocation of funds that will crowd out essential spending in the crumbling infrastructure of the Nation, in education and healthcare, that degrade American leadership in industry, science and technology.

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Chinese are saving for the future as there is no safety net, no social security and no welfare or food stamps.And this means there will be a strong cutback in consumption and in sales of most products in China. Even before this global economic crisis China was becoming even more export oriented. In the last decade consumption as percentage of GDP actually declined from 47% to 37%. And the $586 billion stimulus has some measures to boost consumption but most of the money will go to infrastructure like new highways, railroads and airports. Housing construction is coming to a halt with home prices down 15% in Shenzen. And layoffs among exporters in the area north of Hong Kong like Li Kai which made 9 million sneakers for New Balance in 2007 will make 7 million in 2008, and is laying off 22% of its workers. Migrant workers are headed back home. The sales of foreign firms will be affected. GM's Buick brand saw sales decline an estimated 12% this year and JD Powers estimates decline in 2009 by 21%. Researcher BDA China sees cell phone sales down to 9% growth each year for next 5 years, down from 30% increases in the past 5 years....

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The election win of Sebastian Pinera in Chile marks a shift in Latin America away from left parties. Economic conditions improved initially with the left parties in Brazil, Chile and Argentina, following currency crises and debt problems. The commodities boom helped the left party governments finance social programs which increased their popularity. The middle class also benefited with increased consumer spending and a growing economy. All this changed as the commodities boom collapsed and state finances were stretched thin in Brazil and Argentina. Corruption scandals, and decline in economic growth exposed serious problems in delivery of services, infrastructure and other areas which had been neglected. Voters decided to turn to alternatives and parties from centre right with Macri in Argentina and Pinera in Chile as a consequence.   The striking fact is that instead of shifting to the right leaders of the centre right, Macri in Argentina and Pinera in Chile have decided it is best to keep some of the best initiatives and achievements of the previous governments that have created a broader middle class in Chile and Argentina. Pinera says he will preserve some of Bachelet's initiatives in bringing broader access to education and health care. In this sense Latin America has matured so that the sharp conflicts have been set aside to set a more conciliatory tone and work together. Compared to Chile and Argentina Brazil is different in that corruption scandals affect most parties and there is a general loss of confidence in Congress and politicians across the spectrum. Brazil is looking at a situation in which a whole generation of politicians would have to give way to a new generation for the public to gain a renewal of confidence- so deep is the loss of confidence.  ...

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The Yucatan Rail Project being moved forward by Lopez Obrador in Mexico is shown here in the WSJ. It moved forward during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 and connects the Yucatan cities by rail. Yucatan cities  including Campeche and Merida bring about 8% of the country's exports and 10% of the country's GDP. Modern rail at 99 mph would connect the cities in the Yucatan to increase industry and tourism to develop the south east of the country. This is similar to the projects on the Brahmaputra river in the northeastern parts of India that are being opened up by new infrastructure rail and bridges for industry and tourism. Both the Yucatan and India's northeast are parts of the country that have much potential and have investment needs that were not realized in the past by previous administrations. The environmental impact in the northeast part of India and for the bullet train in the western region from Mumbai to Ahmedabad were held up by environmental concerns. A similar situation has happened for the Yucatan Rail Project. Even when enough trees were to be planted to help Mumbai residents for its Metro construction also shown in WSJ, he project was held up for political reasons. The bullet train project after its delay for political reasons will now cost nearly double that it would have cost before. It is supported by Japanese aid at very favourable financial terms that pay for the project, including direct government aid and Japan's rail technology. It is now moving ahead in 2022.  Infrastructure plays a key role in developing economies such as India and Mexico, yet it requires resolute conviction and perseverance as much of the political setup as shown in Mexico leads to leakage of funds meant for infrastructure and very little being done at great cost to the ease of living of ordinary people. In Mumbai and other cities in India. The same is true for Mexico which at this time of the pandemic needs to bolster its spirits and move ahead with much needed development work to help people in all parts of the country. With the Yucatan Rail Project Mexico can move to the next phase with wind farms on the Yucatan out to sea, and solar energy projects that could with new technology be transmitted to other parts of Mexico and to the US. It is important to keep trying and persevere on these new projects and look to a brighter future. For Mexico US relations better living conditions in Mexico also relieves the burden of illegal immigration and problems related to it in neighborly relations. Mexican officials should increase contacts with Indian officials working on the projects in the Assam region and  along the Brahmaputra river, in Indian states in the northeast, to exchange ideas and notes to gain from each other's experiences in integrating regions that were previously not integrated into the Indian and Mexican economies. This is a topic to be added to the G-20 topics to be discussed at the next meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on November 15-16, 2022. For Mexico it is an opportunity to also widen its infrastructure work to learn from what India is doing in solar and wind energy and build collaborative efforts. ...

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This report in the WSj looks at the Silicon valley approach of pursuing rapid torrential growth at any cost. It shows the victims as investors looking for outsize returns to the point of turning their attention from the facts showing the products as highly hyped improperly as tech for WeWork or having health risks in alternative smoking products in the case of Juul Labs Inc. Both company CEO's were asked to resign. This discussion is on the the limited number of new ideas as the tech really creative stuff  peters out and the tens of billions of dollars pursuing a few ideas even if they as in the case of WeWork basically a real estate company subleasing space were not really tech. The neglect of top priorities in infrastructure, in priorities for health, education and other pressing needs are a result of the misallocation of capital by capital markets structures of funds, banks and investors. Juul started at Stanford University and quickly raised $14 billion. Soon three million high schoolers in the U.S. were using the vaping product as e-cigarettes causing alarmed parents to bring up the issue and the Food and Drug Administration to look into it. As the tech boom results in fewer new ideas practices fail to change in the allocation of capital and wasted capital, resulting in gross neglect of priorities for infrastructure, health and education, wide gaps in income.   ...

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This opinion of the Editorial Board of WSJ says it is not clear why Taiwan has been excluded from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that includes most of South East Asia including Indonesia, and India, South Korea, Japan, Australia. The Biden administration plans to deepen economic ties with Taiwan. WSJ says this is a mistake and Taiwan should be included in the new Asian alliance led by the US. IPEF is a Asian alliance built around 4 pillars of digital economy, transparency and good governance, Asian security and rule of law, and rapid economic technological progress. Biden administration Commerce minister Raimondo says it will increase investment in the alliance countries for supply chain renewal and shift of investments away from China and into India, Vietnam. President Biden and Jake Sullivan see it as pulling in investment into the US for infrastructure and technology and into allies such as India who have the pool of manufacturing workers to compete with China in a new supply chain. Mr. Modi also sees it as he is focused on digital economy, good governance, and infrastructure with speed and scale at high levels to match rising aspirations for the economy in India. It is designed in a way that lets US, Japan South Korea and India to fill in the needs and strategies over the period to 2030 and 2040 so that US and Europe and the Free World in Asia and Latin America, Africa can preserve democratic values with matching technological and economic strength. ...

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PM Modi asks India's youth to help bring about an end to the leakage of public funds that end up illegally in private hands when these funds are desperately needed to build roads, bridges, housing, logistics centers for exports, airports and ports on a scale similar to the United States and EU nations. Only by doing this and focussing every penny for building infrastructure and international trade under Made in India can India meet the aspirations of 1.2 billion people and set the pace for the 0.5 billion people in other parts of south and south east Asia including neighboring Indonesia- 1.7 billion people. The US and European Union would be grateful that this happens as it secures the future also of the US and the EU nations through a new manufacturing supply chain. With this effort India would integrate efforts for renewable energy and combating climate change with the US, European Union, and the nations of Latin America and Africa on a new scale that is needed. Jobs come with infrastructure and Made in India manufacturing, it is the foundations that have to be put in just as for a house being built. See the pledge and how significant it is in Lyrarc Insights (see left side front page menu) under India - The Way Forward, Bharat and Cina in Sanskrit - the heritage of Vedanta and the Buddha that the Asian people identify with. ...

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Of NYT's decades old indifference, an almost Churchill like distance and indifference to the aspirations of the people of South Asia it can be said- indifference to the aspirations of 1.4 billion people to modernize the country with the same infrastructure that Europe and the US, Japan, and now China take for granted. Indifference to the problems in creating a nation  with 13 languages and 1.4 billion people that has a freely elected parliament never before done in history, one which also delivers on banking accounts, health care, infrastructure, for all its  people, of all races and religions. This indifference runs counter to everything that Indians admire about America. And a lack of awareness of what Indians admire today about the Biden administration's promise to make the words of Jefferson true in America as the Modi administration does in India- "We hold these truths to be self-evident that all men are created equal, (created equal) and that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness." The NYT's indifference to this inequality both in the US and in India run counter to the founding principles of Jefferson and of India's saint from Wardha, Mohandas Gandhi, who both fought the British empire at the height of its prominence.  ...

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Sanders, the most senior leader  for Democrats in the Senate says Biden is the most effective president in modern American history, through the pandemic with a bold vision for the country. Bernie Sanders, the senior senator from Vermont, says he will do all to get president Biden reelected.  To critics he says Enough! Sanders says Americans should support Biden because of the American Rescue Plan that he orchestrated and helped the economy recover faster than was thought possible. It put Americans back to work, provided cash benefits to people worried about the future, and protected hospitals, small businesses and schools. Through his Infrastructure Plan Biden has created millions of well paying jobs and is repairing America's broken and neglected for decades infrastructure- roads, bridges, airports, and mass transit. Then there is the largest investment for climate change action in history, there is student debt relief for 5 million people, delivered free vaccines, cheaper insulin, and capped price pharmaceuticals. Biden says the health system is broken and hugely expensive and America still needs a health coverage for all single payer system. A lot remains to be done and this is just the beginning to fulfill the hopes and aspirations of the American people. No amount of dissimulation, distortion of facts can change that. Roosevelt said in 1932- "GIve me your help not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." ...

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Tom Steyer, founder of NextGen America points out the dangers of the Republican tax plan. He calls it a sham, in the WSJ. As evidence he cites a meeting of the WSJ CEO Council, where few hands went up when asked it they would increase investment if the tax bill passed. By saddling future generations with more debt the bill would hurt investment in infrastructure, health and education that are badly needed. This is not the time for another Reaganomics plan, says Steyer, as the middle class and working class have shrivelled under both presidents Bush and Obama, with the export of jobs overseas and the deep recession years. As proof that it does little for the middle and working class, he cites the Tax Policy Center's review of the bill showing 62% of the Senate's version of the tax bill benefits go to the top 1% of the earners. And that nearly half of American families will see their taxes rise under the bill eventually. This means nothing less than taking money from the middle and working class to fund the cuts, and gutting investments in health, education and infrastructure.  ...

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Strategic siting in renewable rich areas (Dallas center the largest is in renewable rich area) and fair cost allocation to not burden small businesses and households are major issues in Data Center building. Data centers for AI -rows and rows of servers 5000 in hyperscale data centers- used 4% of the US total electricity use in 2024. This is growing rapidly. By 2030 this is expected to grow by more than double, by 133%. About 60% of this to power the servers and 30% for cooling the servers. About a third of these servers are located in Virginia, Texas and California. How will this affect Cost of Living concerns, affect electricity prices? Carnegie Mellon working with North Carolina State University did the modeling on the energy and emissions implications of data center buildup in the US in their Open Outlook Initiative. A 8% annual increase in electricity prices is expected on average and as high as 25% in Virginia by 2030.  Total of about 40% increase over 5 years. Between 2014 and 2024 10 year period average cost for a home electricity use went up 25% from $114 a month to $142. This would now go up by 40% to about $200 by 2030 in just 5 years significantly impacting cost of living in the US. In which states will it strain electricity grids? In 2023 data centers consumed 26% of the total electricity supply in Virginia. In North Dakota 15%, Nebraska 12%, Iowa 11%, Oregon 11% according to Electric Power Research Institute. What are the energy types used? Natural gas is used for 40% of the data center electricity, wind and solar 25%, nuclear 20% and coal 15%.   ...

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China's COSCO taking an ownership stake in Hamburg port was opposed by the Greens and Free Democrats parties in the three party coalition government with the SPD in Germany. Scholz of the SPD went ahead over their opposition saying this will preserve jobs in Hamburg port. In the compromise reached the ownership is capped at 24.99% so that no foreign country owns a majority stake. At one point Germany's cyber security agency BSI classified the Hamburg port as critical infrastructure.

China is Germany's largest trading partner  for 7 years with trade reaching a record $320 billion.

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Why the BBC would in 2023 bring back events from 2002 is mind boggling and shows its lack of respect for India's institutions and a colonial mindset, including a lack of respect for India's Supreme Court, says Shashi Vempati. Coming at a time when India is working hard under Sab ka Sath, Sab ka Vikas, everyone's support for everyone's development, and is catching up to the western nations in technology and scientific progress, investments in modern infrastructure, the BBC falls into a colonial era trap of underestimating the potential of the Indian people for advancement in the modern world.

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany will not be blackmailed. She rejected the idea that Russia is expanding its attacks on Ukraine in response to supply of longer range artillery from the US and Germany saying this was just "new propaganda from the Russian side."

Baerbock also said Germany needs to avoid a situation of being dependent on an aggressor for gas supply. Germany is now "very intensively" looking at its dependencies on China, said Baerbock. This is going to be  for "a sovereign European strategy of independence in critical infrastructure."

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Germany's state development bank KfW has signed a memorandum of understanding with German energy company RWE AG to build a new LNG terminal at the northern port city of Brunsbuttel. Netherlands infrastructure group Gasunie will operate the new LNG terminal. The Nordstream 2 $11 billion project is now set aside and Germany plans to use the LNG terminals and other sources outside of Russia. Germany commissioned its gas market trading hub to buy LNG of 1.5 billion euros. 

Germany will now fast track another LNG terminal on the North Sea at Wilhelmshaven. That terminal would be operational in 3 years. 

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What went wrong to get 100,000 deaths in the UK? A lot says this analysis in The Times. Don't need a big test and contact tracing effort was the early response, no quick decisions to build the infrastructure for this like South Korea or Taiwan. The Cheltenham Festival? Superspreader events a bad idea. Open Borders- another bad idea. After a break in the coronavirus weather by summer- relaxing vigilance and preventive steps, another bad idea. So on till a coronavirus variant stepped in through the open borders. You make your own luck, says this analysis in The Times of London.

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Young people's testimonies in this analysis in The Guardian show they are willing to draw systemic conclusions about the way elites have gone into this pandemic and how they shaped societies and countries, and how thy have handled this pandemic when it hit. Most countries in the west in the US and Europe were caught without basic medical supplies for a pandemic and without the ability to make masks and basic equipment for months as they pandemic spread. This happened as capital was misallocated away from health, education and basic infrastructure to an extreme degree that left countries and peoples unprepared and unprotected.

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Francis Scott Key bridge that crosses outer Baltimore harbour collapses, a sign of the neglect of aging infrastructure. Priorities that were ignored by previous administrations pursuing star wars, and wars in the mountains and deserts of the Middle East since 1980, reversing decades of progress since FDR/Truman set the path, Eisenhower that built the Interstate Highway System, Kennedy/LBJ that set the path to the New Frontier that was lost in the distance. US president Biden said the federal government "would pay the entire cost of reconstructing the bridge" and it would be done "as soon as humanly possible."

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The Observer in Britain says Jeremy Hunt's Tory tax cuts will result in further cuts to essential public spending in health and education, and public services to the disadvantaged. Without the funding to improve public infrastructure Britain is getting locked into a painful low growth future. Households are on average 1900 pounds poorer by the end of this parliament compared to December 2019, and weekly earnings will not reach 2008 levels till a full twenty years later in 2028, says The Observer. This is the extent of the damage done by the Tory governments of Cameron, Johnson and Sunak.

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The internal feuds within Silicon Valley about ideas of altruism that support unlimited personal pursuit of profit including monopolistic behaviours, in the measure of their greed. And the presentation of lack of personal involvement in such gains by calling it altruistic. This justifies and puts a neat face on unlimited personal wealth creation in Silicon Valley at a time of great inequality and poverty in America. The consequences can be seen in the crumbling infrastructure and transportation services in New York City compared to that in newly industrializing countries such as China and India, the result of misallocation of capital.

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The 1.5 million people in the six boroughs of New York city where they do not always know when their next meal comes from. This was before th pandemic hit. Today after the coronavirus this has grown to 2 million says the president of Food Banks for New York city. This FR24 report looks at the deep problems in the social fabric of America that have developed over decades of misallocation of capital away from health, education, infrastructure, and manufacturing.

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GDP growth in India's economy decelerated to 5% in the last quarter after 8% growth in full year 2018. Stimulus measures, recapitalizing banks and increased infrastructure spending is supported by the Modi government as a way to cope with this crisis. Much of the problem stems from bad lending by banks from an earlier period.  Lack of credit is hurting the retail and auto sectors. Drought conditions in some rural areas hurt the rural farm based economy.

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Jan Corzine, Governor of New Jersey has talked to governors from the states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, and Massachusetts about how best to execute an effective economic recovery stimulus program with the federal government. Here are the ideas they have come up with. The stimulus should cover five areas, infrastructure, countercyclical programs, housing, education, and middle class tax cuts. The principle to keep in mind is to take advantage of the strengths of the federal government and of the state and local governments. Infrastructure investment should be intelligent ones to modernize the capabilities of the country for the next phase of development and competition in the global economy and in making far reaching changes in transportation and energy for sustainable development in a global economy. A key point of Corzine's here is that safety net social programs will need to be shored up or the stimulus effects will be lost. Over the 2 years 2009 and 2010 he suugests the federal government boost its countercyclical spending by at least $250 billion. And it should do this by increasing the federal medical assistance percentages, federal share of Medicaid costs and other health care related programs such as reimbursement to hospitals for treating the uninsured, Temporary Asistance for Needy families, and child care grants. He proposes doubling the federal funding of unemployment trust funds under the Unemployment Insurance Modernization Act, with incentives to cover vulnerable low-wage and part-time workers who are often denied unemployment benefits. Corzine emphasizes this. That even if the Obama administration puts large sums into infrastructure spending, cutbacks in state and local safety net programs would cancel out much of the effect of the stimulus. The reason is simple while the federal government is adding to jobs on one hand, the states without the money would be cutting back jobs and services. This point will be critical in making the stimulus work. The other point Corzine appears to emphasize by quoting Roosevelt at Oglethorpe University in 1932, is that bold experimientation not clinging to rooftops in the flood, will be needed....

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The China port at Chancay, Peru, gives China access to Latin America for trade and infrastructure cooperation.

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Greg Ip in the WSJ says India is shifting towards  becoming an important partner with the US and the European Union in trade under the Modi government. This report reflects the situation upto 2021 and the changes in Indian and American perceptions during the pandemic. It does not reflect the rapidly evolving situation under president Biden.US president Biden and Jake Sullivan National Security Advisor see rapidly expanding US trade and investment in India. The recent Raisina Dialogue  brings together 26 countries- named after Raisina Hill in New Delhi where India's administration is located- in dialogue with Indian leaders. Finance Minister Sitharaman in an interview at Raisina Dialogue stated that Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, was with her during a G-20 meeting, and Yellen called for friendshoring- foreign investment in democracies that respect the rule of law and provide the right conditions for investment. The right conditions are now being created in India, including infrastructure and logistics, trade practices, and assistance to foreign companies, to invest in Indian manufacturing. The conditions are being created for shifting significant number of manufacturing facilities to India in a complete redesign of the supply chain. A look at the period 1950-2015 in US-EU India relations says little of the newly evolving situation in trade in the way that looking at the US-EU China relations 1950-1990 during the Cold War would tell one little about how that relationship evolved in trade after 1990 in the 1990-2019 period for massive trade with China. The pandemic and the inflation from existing supply chain bottlenecks has led to a realization in US-EU that the existing concentration of manufacturing in one country  was a mistake and is a serious problem that needs correction.  This means an acceleration in the effort to build rapidly over the next 5-10 years a strong US-EU manufacturing presence in India for advanced technologies. India under prime minister Modi is creating the infrastructure and logistics for this to happen with large domestic investment, the help of Denmark's Maersk in port logistics, and from other countries.  Fo India manufacturing and infrastructure building is the only way to create the jobs needed to meet the aspirations of its young population. For the US-EU the redesign of the supply chain is the highest priority to cut inflation, remove potential bottlenecks, and provide a stable supply chain.    ...