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About 700,00 depositors in Spain's banks, including Bankia and regional banks, converted their deposits, including life savings, into high yielding preferred shares in the last decade. The banks raised about 22 billion euros to help recapitalize. The sharp decline in value of the shares made it impossible for depositors to resell them. After the eurozone crisis with EU aid to Spain to recapitalize banks, the EU stated the depositors would have to take some losses. Now the two main parties, the Socialists and the Partido Popular are passing legislation to compensate the depositors after angry protests throughout Spain. Banks will use part of the 37 billion euros of loans from the EU to settle the arbitration cases.

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This WSJ report on critical analysis of coronavirus data has a very useful chart of Estimated Range of Symptomatic Cases Reported by Country. Complete coronavirus data for all symptomatic persons who have the coronavirus infection is lacking in most countries. Many people in large populations have symptoms and are positive but are not reflected in the official data collection. This is a big problem as the total number of cases are understated by a magnitude of twice to five times the numbers reported in official tally.   South Korea has done a good job of getting more of the symptomatic people with the infection in its data, as about 53% to 90% of such persons are reflected in official data. Next comes Germany at a range of 38% to 55%.  China comes third and has about 28% to about 38% of such persons reflected in its data, the U.S. currently on April 4 at about 14% to 19%, according to this chart in the WSJ. The source for this is Mathematical Modeling Center at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. What this means is that the US. number of cases at 278,000  reported infected people with symptoms (April 4) is only 14% to 19% of the true number. Another way to say this is that the actual infected persons with symptoms is about 5 times what is reported, or over 1 million not the 278,000 reported.  As happens for China data collection agencies may never get the true number. To be comparable to the Chinese numbers, as the U.S. is a large country, the figure closer to the true numbers would be twice the 278,000 reported or over half a million symptomatic infections of coronavirus in the U.S. Why is this data important. With widespread testing as in South Korea one gets data that tells one how many people are infected (the size of the problem) and therefore the resources needed and the point of greatest impact. Also it tells one the typical transmission rate per person, and it helps hospitals in each area know what to expect and what resources are needed to prepare- not find people suddenly turn up in the E.R. in unpredictable numbers. The lack of widespread testing and better reporting in the data to get a grip on the pandemic is shown in this chart for countries hardest hit, less than 5-6% for Italy and Spain. The UK and France at 5-8%.   ...

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This BBC report looks into the culture of overwork that becomes a fast track to burnout. Christina Maslach, professor of psychology at the University of Berkeley, says about this culture- if you take a plant put it in a pot, don't water it, give it lousy soil, and not enough sun, its going to wither away no matter how good it was to begin with. That is how much the workplace environment matters and today most people realize that it has gone in the wrong direction, with subtle messages and wrong signals pushing people into overwork. That is pushed forward by the nature of 24-7 being available with the internet. Only a conscious effort and a knowledge of the false signals in an out of place culture can help one make the right choices, and help life bloom the way it was supposed to be.

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China is focused on getting a trade agreement with the US to continue exporting its overcapacity in manufacturing, which cannot be absorbed in it's domestic market. The EU or the US are the only destinations, but this runs into problems as both the US and EU want China to cut production overcapacity, and will no longer take in Chinese exports that hurt manufacturing communities in EU and US over 25 years since 2000.

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The unemployment rate of 5.9% in the US in June 2021 is still higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%. It is also different in other ways that are not so apparent. There are 9 million Americans looking for jobs. They are also looking for jobs outside industries that were hit hard during the pandemic, or pursuing better jobs with less commute and more remote work, and jobs outside of warehousing which requires less of the skills and training they have or in remote locations far from where they live. Economists like to use terms such as "mismatch" to describe this as in this report in WSJ. This does not bring home to us the enormous human toll of the pandemic. A recent survey of US workers for April by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that 31% of people do not want to return to their old jobs up from 20% in July 2020. One in three from one in five last year are looking for something different than the the jobs that were hit hard in each successive wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Other surveys have found that 70% of workers who last worked for the leisure and hospitality industries are looking for something in a different industry. Leisure and hospitality that includes restaurants and hotels, airports, were hammered in this pandemic. And 55% of job applicants in one survey were found to be looking for remote work. Economists also see the macroeconomy in terms of supply and demand for labor, in terms of interest rates with low interest rates as a way to tackle unemployment, yet this has limited value in real life situations in the economy when it is affected by a number of factors, including some unusual factors such as the pandemic and man made events such as the global financial crisis of 2009 from banking missteps. The federal government has to take steps of its own to support Americans as these changes take place in the economic situation and Americans are in need of help with adjustments. ...

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A detailed account of the expansion of Banco Santander under Emilio Botin, using his shrewd financial abilities and extraordinary stamina. Botin expanded the bank with acquisitions of Banesto in Spain, Abbey National in UK, and acquisitions in Brazil and Mexico. This reduced its profit exposure in Spain to 15%, reducing its risk in the 2011-2013 banking crisis in Spain. Botin's family has run the bank for three generations, with the bank now headed by Patrcia Botin, after Emilio Botin died of a heart attack in 2014. Sheila Bair, former head of the U.S. FDIC, says the bank is run efficiently, and Botin was careful to manage risks prudently in the global financial crisis of 2008. Banco Santander benefitted from the years of rapid growth in Spain following Spain's entry into the European Union in 1986, the year Emile Botin took over as chairman. He comes from Santander in northern Spain, and studied law and economics at Spanish universities. With the passing away of Adolfo Suarez, and the abdication of Juan Carlos, the passing away of Emile Botin in the same year, three of the men who helped create modern Spain have now faded away....

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Raphael Minder points out one episode in the life of Emilio Botin that shows how intertwined Spain and Santander had become. During the period when Spain took EU help after the collapse of Bankia bank in 2012 there was pressure on Spain to take a full government bailout. Finance minister Guindos says it was Botin who called him at that time and told him: "You know what you have to do and I will back you up." Botin's advice to the Spanish government was to resist the pressure. Botin expanded what was a family bank based in Santander in Northern Spain, through a series of successful acquisitions. He had a rare intuitive sense for timing of acquisitions, going into Brazil around the time candidate Lula of the Workers Party was elected president, with considerable uncertainty about how financial markets would respond to the election. About a quarter of the bank's profit now comes from Brazil. Besides Brazil Santander has commercial banking presence in Britain and the U.S., taking a bank that had 20 billion euros in assets in 1998 to 1.1 trillion euros by 2013, which is about the value of Spain's GDP....

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The average tariff increase is much less 8% not 12% forecasters stated, in first half 2025, says this WSJ report. Forecasters have overestimated the tariffs because of numerous exemptions. Other reasons are that large retailers like Walmart have heeded the president's warnings not to raise prices on everyday items Americans buy from Walmart, Target and Amazon.

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Angela Merkel's handling of the coronavirus crisis wins praise from world leaders and leaders in Germany. Public opinion from Argentina and New Zealand to Britain and the U.S. gives her a lot of credit for the way she has tackled the situation. She now has the highest approval ratings in Germany since 2017, after a period of 2 years during which her popularity waned with the migrant crisis.  Much of her period in office was consumed by crises- the eurozone financial crisis, the migrant crisis, and now the coronavirus crisis. She brings her style of a scientist rationally looking at the situation, her experience, and her willingness to take bold positions under much criticism. Today even one of the premiers in Thuringia from the socialist Left party praises Merkel for being "pleasantly calm and goal oriented, particularly evident in the well structured video and telephone conferences." He says he prefers a leader "a quiet scientist" rather than "pompous men who as populists, dangerously ignore the facts of the danger." Merkel now assumes the 6 month presidency of the Council of the European Union on July 1.  Germany faces the future in rebuilding its economy, in rebuilding its infrastructure and public services, for now Merkel provides the leadership needed for this time. As Andreas Nick, vice president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe puts it she is "always analytically scrutinizing and carefully weighing up, soberly Protestant and refreshingly unpretentious, a trained scientist with life experience in the downfall of an all too self-confident ideological system."   ...

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The U.S. perception that the shadows from the period of non-alignment in the Nehru era still linger in Indian policy, a sort of ambivalence that has denied India's true potential as an alliance partner for the free world. A perception in the U.S. that has not seen the true potential of the largest population in the world of 1.5 billion people in India and Bangladesh has also colored perception of the relationship. This population is now at a point at which a broad based development is not only possible (sab ka vikas sab ke sath) but also moving at an accelerated pace. With a combination of cumulatively increasing inputs of technology, capital, land and educated labor force this is now at the potential of becoming a very doable world changing event by 2035- a $20 trillion economy by doubling every 5 years based on renewable energy and dedicated to health, education and development. What makes this a world changing event is the opportunity to meet the aspirations of about 2 billion people in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and surrounding nations, offering new hope for Africa and Latin America. For this the U.S. commitment cannot have any traces of ambivalence, and the Indian commitment cannot have any traces of ambivalence. India needs one more change in its perceptions - to realize that for the first time in its history that this is within its reach. ...

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A Washington Post poll in September 2016 shows some surprising results with Clinton competitive in Texas and Arizona, long red states. It shows Trump's appeal to older white voters helping him in Iowa and Ohio. Clinton has a slight lead in Michigan. Clinton also leads in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado, and also in Florida.  As the race gets closer with about 50 days left Clinton's lead of 8-9 points is now about 4 points. Most striking this time compared to 2012 is that Clinton is polling way ahead with college educated voters. A race with libertarian candidate Johnson shows him getting 15% of the vote in 15 states narrowing Clinton's advantage, but also putting pressure on Trump to win undecided voters. Clinton has consolidated the Democratic vote better than Trump with 90% support in 32 states compared to Trump's above that in only 13 states, a key weakness because of dividing the Republican vote with Trump's crude and blatant attacks during the primaries that have left some Republicans thoroughly alienated. Unlike any previous election this one is dividing the vote based on gender and education. A big additional difference is college educated white women where the gap is the widest seen in any election- a 23 point lead for Clinton with white college educated women nationwide. In the midwest Michigan still has a history of voting Democratic especially after the auto industry rescue by Obama. Demographic changes not mentioned here also play a part such as in Colorado and Nevada long time red states. A Clinton edge in Texas is the most surprising result in the entire poll results showing the old red state blue state division is now replaced by women, minorities and college degrees as the dividing line. Part of the reason for this is that the losses due to globalization. And in this respect Clinton does better than Obama, but not as well as Merkel in Germany who has also suffered with people who lost out in globalization but not to the extent of Obama, and to a lesser degree than Obama for Clinton. Enough minority support, Republican support, and blue collar support, in addition to women voters,  may be the difference for Clinton in Texas. The other factor is the advertising campaign funding and the national security issue, on which Clinton does better than Obama in the latter a key factor in red states, and is similar to Obama in the former to tackle midwestern states. Such as Michigan and Wisconsin, liberal in history but with large shifting blue collar votes. Hurt by globalization, but in the case of Michigan helped by the Democrats rescue of the auto industry. In a way this could bring the country together after Obama with the disappearing North-South or red state blue state division, and with enough union or working class white support for Clinton in addition to dominant college educated voters to form a new coalition of support compared to a predominantly red state white state division of Obama years based on the minority vote.  ...

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WSJ investigations of Facebook and Instagram showed how these social media companies business activity was damaging to young women's health in the US, Europe and other countries. Because of the reach of social media companies into the lives of millions of young people the damage was serious and extensive. This report in the WSJ describes the activities of management at Facebook and the resignation of one of the key executives from burnout herself. This WSJ report says that during the WSJ series on the investigations this and other key executives remained silent on the issues facing young women for mental health in the use of Facebook products.  One WSJ report in 2021 said that company documents showed Facebook knew that the company's products were toxic for teenage girls. Other issues emerged in the WSJ investigations such as the Outrage Algorithm which the WSJ says was made by tweaking some aspects of the company's algorithm as a way to counter dropping user engagement. This led to much angrier discourse on Facebook according to WSJ and other reports. The experiences at Facebook reflect the general experience of this period in 2000-2015 when business management shifted to an entirely different conception of business that ignored the importance of human values in the blind pursuit of rapid growth, profits to make acquisitions of smaller companies for further growth creating monopolistic firms. This extended to disruptions of democratic process with the Cambridge Analytica access to records of data of 87 million Facebook users as reported in WSJ, that were used to target social media users in the period leading to the 2018 election. With such activities the risks could be seen to the democratic process itself in addition to mental health by the emergence of social media in the short period of a dangerous decade 2010-2020, when there was little or no regulation of this medium.   ...

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Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

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As the first military plane with 100 deportees from the US lands in Amritsar in the Punjab state, there is this reflection in India on why migrants decide to come mostly from Gujarat and Punjab two of India's prosperous states, and Gujarat a centre for industrial development under Vikshit Bharat 2047. Modi visits Washington Feb 12 for meetings with DJT.  Times of India says agencies that track illegal migrants report 90,415 migrants illegally entered the US from Mexico or Canada between October 2023 to Sept 2024. Half of the 90,415 migrants were from Gujarat. The two leading states for migrants are Punjab, Gujarat followed by Haryana, UP and Maharashtra.  In the Punjab this report shows business communities and urban professionals as part of the illegal migrant flow looking for better life- for reasons of governance, and social security, including people from well to do families. And not for reasons of job scarcity. And this is changing demographis with decline in population in Punjab with it being made up by migration from Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar states into Punjab.     ...

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All the ministers and officers in the 2025 Trump administration are shown here in the BBC.