LyrArc Article Gist
Lower oil prices, higher corporate profits, and restrained spending, lead to improvements in Japan's budget deficit. There is a 24% increase in corporate taxes in Japan's budget estimates for 2015 compared to Dec. 2012 when prime minister Abe assumed office. This will help reduce the budget deficit. The budget assumes an oil price of $69, making the budget plan achievable with prices below $50 in Jan. 2015. For the next fiscal year tax revenue is expected to increase by 5.4% over the prior year, with half of the increase from the sales tax increase and the other half from the higher economic growth. Budget projections assume 3.6% global economic growth, exports up by 5.2% in real terms, and imports up 3.9%. Spending is kept under control increasing by just 0.5% from the current fiscal year budget, and borrowing reduced by 11%. The government plan is to produce a primary budget surplus by 2020, and cut the deficit by half in the primary budget which excludes bond issuance and interest payments, by fiscal 2015....

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden issued executive order on June 3, 2024 to close the Border with Mexico and deny asylum. Once border crossings reach 2500 a day the border is closed. Then it is opened only when crossings drop to 1500 a day and after 14 days. Officially permitted including humanitarian parole pathways are limited to 1500 a day. This is being done because the legislation that passed in the US Senate on bipartisan basis negotiated for closing the Border with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Republicans and Senator Lankford (R) was blocked in the Senate by Mike Johnson on instructions of Mr. Trump who sought to use it as an election issue. "Today I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border,” said president Biden. The signs “SECURING OUR BORDER” were prominent in the White House East Room. “Frankly, I would have preferred to address this issue through bipartisan legislation,” he added, “but Republicans left me with no choice.” On this page the WSJ looks at the Border on August 5, 2024 and finds the border crossings have dropped to levels in 2020 and to levels seen during the last year of president Trump. The US and Mexico have cut border crossings with Mexico moving migrants back to southern Mexico in a Chutes and Ladders program where migrants head north, and the Mexican gocernment buses them back south, at which point some return to their home countries. At the Guatemala border there is busing to take them to other locations in the south of Mexico. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The EU has set a goal of getting 20 million tons of grain exports out of Ukraine in 3 months using EU transport infrastructure. This is vital to feed many parts of the world. Ukraine exported 44 million tons in the 2020-2021 growing season. Russia is conducting a blockade of Odessa on the Black Sea to prevent Ukraine exports from leaving.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia faces future losses from the loss of the German and European natural gas and energy markets. Germany is pushing forward to free itself from Russian gas supplies, and supplies of other energy from Russia. This will be a market hard to replace for Russia. New renewable energy scientific and manufacturing advances could replace the dependence on coal, natural gas, oil leaving Russia without the earnings it makes now on energy supplies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Kirill Dmitriev who has a BA from Stanford and MBA from Harvard was educated in the US and worked for McKinsey and Goldman Sachs. He worked for the US-Russia Investment Fund funded by USAID during the early years in 1990's after fall of Soviet Union. And helped sell off media properties bought at that time for that Fund to the new government. He is now the head of the Russian Sovereign Fund.

He will be a key negotiator to be similar to Witkoff in the Trump team who has a background in real estate deals. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian PM Modi to visit US on Feb 12-13 2025 to hold talks with DJT at the White House. India accepts the 18,000 undocumented migrants as DJT says he is confident that India will do the right thing on this issue. Talks will centre on the new supply chain and reducing overdependence on China for manufacturing, bringing jobs and factories back to the US and how Vikshit Bharat 2047 fits into the US plan for a diversified supply chain in Asia.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Affordable Care Act or Obamacare gave families of 4 with incomes of less than 125,000 or single income less than $60,000 a chance to buy insurance with federal subsidies. When these subsidies were increased under the IRA Act of president Biden the enrolment has doubled in the last 5 years to $24 million. These subsidies expire in 2025. Under the One Big Beautiful Act the policy of subsidies for ACA is not being renewed when it expires in 2025. This shows the band aid approach of Obama to healthcare and the lack of a comprehensive approach. The policy on migrants during the Obama and Biden administration also stretched public funding resources. Insurance companies now plant to make up for the los of subsidies from the government by raising prices for this subpopulation in a broken healthcare system in the US by 15-20%. This report in WSJ shows a young woman on ACA insurance in Illinois with a payment of $590 a month to Blue Cross of Illinois facing a new payment of $678, almost the size of a mortgage. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US loses to Morocco in the quarter finals of the 2024 Olympics 4-0. Morocco outplayed the US in every dimension with shots on target 8 for Morocco only one for the US. This shows how countries in the Arab world and in Africa are outperforming in the Paris Olympics. Egypt won over Spain one of the best European teams 2-1.

LyrArc Article Gist
After being immersed in the world of science the host of many BBC scientific documentaries is now confronted with emotions. Her experience with the pandemic and her own encounter with cancer has changed her conceptions of science. With advanced degrees and work in physics she calls herself intellectually promiscuous. Yet she says when asked about a simple concept of probability she says if something is with 95% probability going to happen, don't be surprised if it doesn't. Emotions matter and she does see the other side of fears when doing a BBC documentary on vaccination, and the emotional response to all the statistics shown to support vaccination efforts by people who are skeptical and have their own emotional responses and fears.

LyrArc Article Gist
This article is from The Guardian, September 6, 2019. Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime minister on Murdoch's News Corp. and antagonism towards Australia's Labour party and towards climate change action, and to Australian broadband speed. Some creators of content are also unwittingly adopting strategies that pose other dangers to society, to competition, to an educated public, including News Corp. News Corp. (owner Fox News) strategy is to create affinity, to create communities for content. When actively done and pursued in excess by powerful creators of content such as News Corp. this leads to the fragmentation of civic society into groups not generated by honest discussion among civic minded people, but by revenue generating artificially created groups where the affinity is exploited by the creator of content as an outsider. This is inimical to society, education, honest discussion of civic minded people, and of democracy itself. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Miller says the whole thing about the super-committee, the polemics between Republicans and President Obama about deficits and billionaires, could end up being a charade with Obama hoping to squeeze by in the 2012 presidential elections and the Republicans equally intent on getting 51%. In the end Obama's poor handling of the debt ceiling, including an unwillingness to go ahead with raising the debt ceiling even if it went to court, says Miller, shows a basic failure of the Obama presidency. In the end he thinks its not that the centre-left is going to be mad at Obama, they will be mad at themselves for believing he was going to be any different.

LyrArc Article Gist
The 1-0 Uruguay Brazil game gets very physical often with no action from the referee, fouls committed throughout the game. The referee blew his whistle 44 times but he could have done it much more than that.

LyrArc Article Gist
This story in the NYT showing America's GE building a wind turbine three times as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York harbour, comes after a decade of bad news from GE, beginning with its role in the mortgage financial crisis when its stock dropped to new lows. Bad bets on conventional power generation in its power division are leading to the change at GE where it is now investing in renewable energy. Under CEO Immelt GE did not anticipate the surge in growth of renewable energy powered by government subsidies. Now GE is pursuing an aggressive strategy by building larger wind turbines than its competitors Vestas in Denmark and Senvion in Germany. A 12 megawatt turbine is planned by GE called Haliade-X, to be built at a cost of $400 million for demonstration in 2019, shipping units in 2021. Competitors are looking at building a 10 megawatt wind turbine. Vestas SA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have a 9.5 megawatt wind turbine in operation as prototype in Denmark. The bit of good news comes with the backdrop of big changes at GE as its power division falters badly. GE under Immelt badly misjudged the market for gas and coal turbines, building inventory and resorting to aggressive pricing, not anticipating the push evident in Germany and in China towards renewable energy. The shift to renewable energy reduced demand for conventional power in Germany and the U.S. In Germany. Electric companies in conventional power generation are struggling. At GE orders declined by 25% and profits by 50% in the 4th quarter over the prior year. 12,000 job cuts are planned in the power division, 18% of its workforce. Older board members at GE are expected to leave, and GE under new CEO/Chairman John Flannery plans to shed $20 billion in assets in a major restructuring and shift to renewables.   Larger wind turbines of 10 megawatts or larger are the next stage in wind energy as the Netherlands and Germany move to build wind farms free of subsidies. The economics of larger wind turbines are critical as less geographic acreage is needed with larger turbines. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Bharat Jagdeo, vice president of Guyana tells the WSJ it wants to produce as much oil as it can quickly before renewble energy takes over. Guyana has $40 billion of Mobil projects that can add 1 million barrels a day by 2030. Non-OPEC producers US, Brazil and Guyana can boost output by 5.1 million barrels a day, OPEC+ can only increase production by 800,000 barrels a day. This means the US can help keep oil prices at levels that help India/Indonesia, Europe and the US grow.  Brazil and Guyana do not want OPEC mandated production cuts.

LyrArc Article Gist
Daniel Henninger of the WSJ Editorial Board says even if a Republican is elected president it would be a question of 4 more years of what? The big problem today he says is the small number of legislators in the US House of Representatives, about 20 in the Freedom Caucus, that are opposed to the government operating unless they get their way. The result is that independent Speakers of the Republican controlled House, with Republicans having a slim majority, are unable to get elected, and the Speaker elected is a relative newcomer Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who entered Congress as recently as 2017. The new Speaker has said the legislation passed by a bipartisan group of Senators in the US Senate 70-30 for aid to Ukraine is "dead on arrival." Result an impasse with some saying this is the most ineffective Congress ever. In this situation if a Republican is elected president says Henninger he can do little because a loss of even one legislative branch to Democrats the House or the Senate would leave America where it started- in an impasse for 2024-2028. For this reason he says even though Mr. Trump said he would do great things there was little he could point to in his vision for the future, and little he could do just by signing executive orders that would later be reversed.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Foley cites a recent survey by the Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences shown in the South China Morning Post. This survey shows 96% of respondents "resenting the rich." In 2007, the Asian Development Bank estimated the Gini coefficient for China at 0.47%, up from 0.28% in 1983, same as Sweden, Japan and Germany. Now its closer to Argentina and Mexico. This is happening as less than 70% of graduates have jobs. And a peculiar situation is occurring in China where the retail prices are not increasing but prices of real estate and of commodities like iron ore and oil are high. There is too much liquidity with $1.5 trillion of governmet manadated bank lending and inflation is rising creating a speculative bubble in stock and real estate. And there are protectionist pressures with the USA sensing that cheap imports subsidized by artificially low currency in China is worsening America's trade deficit.

LyrArc Article Gist
It is important to remember that FDR and Harry Truman won in North Carolina by huge majorities, so did Adlai Stevenson, John Kennedy, LBJ. In fact going back to Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Democrat Josh Stein, Attorney General elected in 2020 and Republican Mark Robinson, the Lt. Governor are very different candidates for governor in North Carolina. Rory Cooper, a Democrat, who won by 4 percentage points is not running after two terms as popular governor because of term limits.  Cooper's focus has been on education, ease of living, infrastructure and clean energy. North Carolina has one of the largest rural populations in the country with one in three being rural with new out of state residents settling in the suburbs. In recent years it has generally voted for a Democrat as governor and Republican for the legislature. Only in  elections since 1980 except in 2008 it has voted Republican for president. In 2024 it is expected to be a swing state. If elected Robinson would be the first black governor of North Carolina, Stein the first Jewish governor.   ...