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After overly aggressive bank lending following the financial crisis of 2008 China is now badly overextended. China has also learned from the U.S. experience about the risks inherent in growth generated from a credit boom. In 2009-2010 China was also getting less bang for the buck in terms of the increase in lending needed to generate growth compared to earlier periods. Orlik says don't expect China to help the global economy the way it did in 2009-2011, and that there is no Plan B for China.

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Climate change risk is being balanced with cost of living and other risks. David Bailey of the Bank of England says climate change risk is alive and well at the Bank even though the Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) has seen withdrawal of banks such as Chase and Barclays to avoid criticism during DJT's second term. 

“We do, of course, have to put climate risk into proportion alongside all the other risks. We can’t focus just on one risk … But we’ve got to focus on climate risk. It’s important. And we continue to maintain the momentum of our work in that space.”

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The slowing economy of Turkey as the wars in Syria and Iraq take their toll reducing demand for Turkey's exports. The conflict with Russia also affects Turkish exports. Growth slows to 2-3% a year in 2015-2016.

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The Guardian says EU head Von der Leyen should channel the social vision of Jacques Velors who was born in 1925 and envisioned a Europe that would pool its resources and use the resources for solidarity and growth. This vision was stated in its different dimensions for Europe by Macron in his speech "Europe" at the Sorbonne last Wednesday, March 5, 2025, shown in Lyrarc last week.

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Biden's executive order to expand legal protections of undocumented spouses of American citizens in June 2024 recalls a similar moment in the Obama campaign in 2012 when Obama made took similar action at that time. It bolstered Obama with Hispanic voters at a time in his campaign when his support among Latinos was not that strong.

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The potential default of Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Company on a 2012 bond of one billion renminbi, as the company says it cannot make a payment of 89.9 million renminbi or $14.6 million. China's corporate bond market is now the third largest in the world after the U.S. and Japan, according to BIS. The Asian Development Bank figures are total corporate bonds outstanding of 500 billion renminbi in 2005 growing to 8.5 trillion renminbi in 2013 (or about $1.4 trillion).

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Winfried Vahland, the VW executive chosen to head the U.S. and Mexico operations by new VW CEO Muller, turns down the position. Vahland is one of the most experienced executives at VW, heading the China operations, and since 2010 in charge of the Skoda operations based in the Czech Republic. This is a setback for VW as it looks for ways to improve the management at all of its operations and make organizational changes.

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China has emerged as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, in the face of sanctions by the Trump administration to cut Iranian oil exports. China has replaced French company Total for the Pars oil field. It is investing heavily in Iranian oil industry. Iran has offered a 12% discount for China's oil supply needs. China has promised to invest $280 billion in the Iranian oil industry and is seeking to pull Iran into its Belt and Road Initiative. India also seeks to continue its oil trading relationship with Iran, in the face of U.S. sanctions.

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Research firm Dragonomics says real estate prices fell 4.9% in April from the prior year for nine cities in China. In 2010 prices in these nine cities went up by 21.5%, the increase in 2009 was 10%. Standard Chartered estimates China's second tier cities, such as Dalian and Tianjin, could have 20 months of housing inventory by the end of 2011. Standard Chartered says price declines of 10-20% can be expected. Government data understates the extent of the bubble and the drop in prices say analysts. Beijing real estate consultant, Soufun, confirms the slowdown in price increases, saying its data show average property prices went up by 5.1% in May over the prior year, compared to the jump in prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices of copper and steel are coming down after rapid increases. The price increases in the Chinese real estate market have put housing out of the reach of ordinary couples. In 2006 an average price of a new apartment in Beijing cost $100,000, by 2011 this had gone up to $250,000. It woud take 57 years of saving for an average person to buy the apartment at todays cost. The government's response has been to boost down payments on mortgages for second homes to 60% from 40%, prohibiting state owned enterprises outside the real estate sector from investing in real estate, and raising the reserve requirements of banks....

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Xi tells Senate majority leader Schumer on a visit to Beijing that China has every reason to want stable relations with the US. Xi meets Biden at a November Summit meeting in the US.

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The resilience of 4 young Ukrainian women in their 30's is shown in this Guardian report by Charlotte Higgins in the Guardian's Ukraine in Depth series in 2025. Charlotte Higgins report shows the lives of 4 Ukrainian women, wives, mothers, fighters, in their 30's from Kviv who keep that war torn nation going in 2025. Women have options to leave the country compared to men in Ukraine. These women decided to live in Ukraine in the middle of wars and rocket missile attacks where their children were not safe and where their offices were bombed and they had to move to other offices and locations. Some had served in the army as medics. See the companion in depth stories of Nova Poshta the resilience of people in the postal service that keeps Ukraine going delivering millions of parcels each day across the country in next day service, even in war zones under missile attacks.

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Daniel Yergin of IHS Cambridge Energy Associates describes the revolution in the development of natural gas supplies in the U.S. with the development of new technologies to extract natural gas from abundant shale deposits in the U.S. and Canada.

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This report in NYT looks at the Barbados debt crisis. Barbados spends 55% of its budget to pay interest on debt (servicing the debt). That leaves about 5% for health and climate change. Years of borrowing that ignored basic rules of financing have created serious problems that were compounded by the pandemic and hurricanes. This report shows that the total deb of Barbados was not known to the central bank. Borrowing was approved at exorbitant interest rates. One loan with Credit Suisse for $150 million is shown here with interest rates that lead it to become a catastrophic amount owed. Many such loans without any checks and supervision of total loans taken, lack of financial prudence rules followed, lack of transparency and alerts on borrowing and spending tend to create this kind of situation in many poor countries. About two thirds of developing countries are in this situation owing one third of their budget for debt service or paying interest on the loan. The situation is unstable to begin with. Then on comes along a hurricane or natural disaster such as the pandemic and the unstable situation becomes a catastrophe. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Caribbean nations, nations in Africa, face debt crises that are getting worse. It is not inevitable or destiny for nations today, consider the examples of large nations such as Japan, China, South Korea and India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and one can see that development finance can be prudent and responsible, so that situations such as the pandemic can be handled without going into disarray. ...

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The introduction of a tax on sugary drinks to fight a surging diabetes rate, setup of a universal social security system, unemployment insurance and tax reform by the Nieto administration in Mexico in 2013. Taxes on high income earners will increase from 30% to 32%, a capital gains tax of 10%, and closing of some corporate tax loopholes such as tax consolidation to offset losses in one subsidiary against gains at others, are part of the tax changes. The remarkable aspect of these changes is the Pacto de Mexico signed by the three major political parties, centre left and right, to provide Mexico a new competitiveness for the economy, eliminate monopolistic pricing, introduce testing of teachers in the education system, combat health risks such as diabetes, and the social reform of seting up a social security system that Mexico lacked. Nieto said in a televised address while being flanked by the leaders of three major parties- "the tax reform is a social reform." For the first time in decades Mexico is poised to compete in a global economy with a new spirit of change and renewal....

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Yellow vest protesters in Paris have a point about the rising cost of living in Paris. Paris now ranks as one of the top 3 most expensive cities inthe world after Hong Kong and Singapore.  This is using 150 items in 133 cities worldwide in the Economist Intelligence Unit's 2019 Worldwide Cost of Living Survey. Other cities that are in top ten include Zurich and Geneva ranked fourth and fifth followed by Seoul, Tokyo. Israel's Tel Aviv entered top ten for first time. New York and Los Angeles rank eight and tenth.

London property prices fell for second year in a row in 2018. No German cities in top ten, Munich overtook Hamburg and Frankfurt moved up three places. In Canada Vancouver is dropping and Toronto is still holding up.

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BJP Modi election win in West Bengal and upset by TVK party in Tamilnadu states of India are a result of existing state governments not meeting the aspirations of young people in India for jobs, lack of progress in industrialization and lack of investment in infrastructure. These are the pressing priorities in India. Whoever can deliver on modernization and industrialization, jobs and infrastructure to meet the aspirations of the Indian people is likely to prevail. This is also no different than the process underway in the US and Europe for reindustrialization and remodernization, updating infrastructure built in the 19th century, jobs and incomes. The BJP party of prime minister Modi has set the bar high for modernization of the scale of China and Japan for India, and to even surpass them.  It is definitely doable, particularly now that India has built trade links for import of new technologies with the US and the EU, and when it is already an economy the size of Germany or Japan. Most of the Opposition parties cannot believe this is possible, and most of the media that covers India has the same views. As a result the titles and the discussion in the media are like that of 15 years back when India was led by parties that lacked the will and drive for industrialization and modernization, corruption and mismanagement dissipated resources, could not create the master plan and execution needed,  and lacked the leaders at the ministerial level to accomplish this to deliver on every promise. In fact the elections of the last 2 years have created a new northeastern India - changed the map completely with the growth in a region half the size of the European Union of 300 million people that is able to grow at 20% a year for 10 years in Bihar, West Bengal, and Orissa, Assam regions, where the mighty Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers flow into the seas from the Himalayas. There is that much potential and it means India itself can grow at rates of 10% once all the conditions are right in a few years to 2047 for Vikshit Bharat, Modernized India. The world economy can also grow with such a vibrant dynamic India. ...

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Apple shares are down 25% says this WSJ article and asks the question whether Apple's best days are past. In the fastest growing markets in Asia and Africa, Apple iPhones are beyond the reach of about 95% of the population. The number of Apple iPhones sold in India have dropped 40% in 2018 compared to 2017. Apple's market share in India has fallen from 2% to 1%, according to Canalys research firm. The $1.8 billion in Indian sales is about half of what Apple executives had hoped for when Tim Cook visited India in 2016. Some call it a rout. Tim Cook seldom mentions India now. At the center of this is Apple's reluctance to change its business model of getting the highest margins, making not a range of handsets, but a few models selling at high prices. This is the strategy that Apple has used to revive the company from near bankruptcy in 1997. Competitors including Xiaomi, the Apple for China and India, tweak their phones constantly to address local concerns for battery life, and lower prices to get market penetration. Only 24% of Indians have a smartphone and India is fastest growing market. Friction with the Modi government which cannot be favorable to Apple's plans to push a high  margin product when competitors have similar but better value packages.   In price sensitive markets of Africa and Asia most people buy phones outright and use pay as you go plans, Apple is not popular. Even in China Apple's market share is down from 12.5% in 2015 to 8% in 2017, according to Canalys. Apple is reluctant to make many models offering lower prices and to address concerns such as battery life in India. In India 39 million people will add smartphones in 2018 with 75% costing less than $250, 95% costing less than $500. In Apple's lineup the iPhone 7 costs around $550. Competitors such as Xiaomi, OnePlus, Oppo, and Vivo flooded India with smartphones costing less than $200. Unlike Apple which spurns market research these companies do extensive research work on local situation. OnePlus has focussed on battery life and gained 30% share of the premium segment to Apple's 25%. By making the devices in India these companies avoid having to pay the 20% tariff. Apple has so far not put up a new plant with the restriction that India places of single brand retailers over 51% foreign owned to buy locally 30% of manufacturing materials. The Modi government felt Apple was not focussed enough on bringing high tech jobs to India and helping local manufacturing, a perception not conducive to expansion in India where "Made in India" is the government plan. This means opening Apple stores in India is less likely now.  The turnover of Apple India executives is also increasing with 3 new CEO's 2017- 2019. Apple's strategy of targeting wealthier Indians makes it not even a fringe player in the Indian market down to 1% of the market. Just as it shrinks in the Chinese market where most customers are price sensitive and the economy is slowing.   ...