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Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

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Israeli leader Yair Lapid says "we need a government where right, left and centre work together as a way of life." The result is that Lapid's party is putting together a coalition of the right, left and centre- parties of Bennett, Labor, Gantz, and Lapid getting together to form a new government with sharing of ministries. Bennett would be the prime minister for 2 years followed by Lapid under this new arrangement. The whole arrangement is a result of no one  party or group of parties gaining a majority in repeated elections. Under the last arrangement Benny Gantz and Netanyahu shared power with Netanyahu going first as prime minister.  The new arrangement is designed as an effort to give Israel a chance to have anyone other than Netanyahu as prime minister, so intense is the desire for changes- almost as if Israel needed it "as it needs air to breathe," the way Lapid puts it. Lapid says the goal was not compromise which was tried in the past, the goal now was a government of change. ...

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A huge change in US China relations. President Xi abandons the harsh tone of the past decade in describing America and seeks normal relations with the US away from the acrimonious words of the past. He meets with president Biden in a friendly atmosphere.  The Blinken negotiated fentanyl accords are also agreed to between Xi and Biden that China would prevent sending of these chemicals from China, removing one more sore point in relations.

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Egypt's new capital city 40 miles from Cairo is shown here in the WSJ. The cost is about $45 billion. The Egyptian government will move ministries and public sector employees to the new city in 2023. Local developers are helping build the city and the Egyptian military is running the project. Cairo is overcrowded and densely packed with old buildings, with traffic congestion in the inner city. The capital is only part of a project that could cost 1 trillion dollars with help from oil rich Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and involves modernization of the Arab world's largest country- rail lines with fast rail in collaboration with German companies, and building new highways, airports, other infrastructure projects. 

The shift in building new infrastructure comes as India is building new cities including its own new smart city in Gujarat called Dholera in the Gulf of Kambhat (Cambay). Dholera is also a city built from scratch from the sand. 

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's actions in 2013 to counter the growing size and complexity of large banks. JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo assets have grown by 75% and 275% betwen 4th quarter of 2006 and 4th quarter 2012.

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European preparations for an embargo on Iranian oi. Development of technologies to develop nuclear weapons advances in Iran, causing concern that leads to action by the U.S. and the E.U.

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The high cost of housing as affluent people from the northeast moved into southern Florida during the pandemic doubling the price of housing by 2024, is covered in this report in WSJ. This is pushing average Floridans making about $66,000 to leave the state or stay in far flung suburbs with long commutes over 2 hours a day. Unemployment at 2.7% is low yet making it in Florida and affording pricey housing is a struggle for many Florida residents.

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Pedro Sanchez is attempting to form a new government in Spain with the support of Catalan parties. His Socialist party voted with 87% in favor of forming a new government with smaller parties without using the word amnesty for Catalans who protested in 2017 for independence. PSOE's organizational secretary Santos Leon says the party is determined to not let the opposition Partido Popular weaken the welfare state at a time of cost of living crisis and following the pandemic by coming to power at the federal level. In 2023 only 42% of Catalans want independence, 52% actually oppose it, making it easier to let Pedro Sanchez put this episode in Spanish history behind.

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The gaps between myth and reality of the Conservatives continues to grow says this view from Labour expressed in The Guardian. With the chaos in the Conservatives and three prime ministers out in a short period- first with Brexit, then with the factions supporting and against Boris Johnson who led the fight to take Britain out of the European Union, the promises made to the North of England that led to Johnson's win in the election are falling by the wayside. There is no real progress in levelling up wealth and development gaps between regions in Britain, the commitment to tackling climate change is wavering and inconsistent when the rest of Europe and the US is moving forward with clear intent and funding, and the effort to tackle the cost of living crisis lacks conviction and plan changing by the day.     

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Nikki Haley, Republican Governor of S. Carolina, is losing tea party support because of her endorsement of Mitt Romney for president in 2012.

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WHite children born in 1992 fared worse in income levels than white children born in 1978. The reverse is true for black children- the income gap narrowing for black children born after 1992 and widening for white children born after 1992. In this unusual twist lies some of the angst about social divisions in America in 2024 where income mobility is a major issue. The Biden administration has achieved a lot with bipartisan legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, cancelling student loan debt or reducing it, creating 16 million jobs, bringing supply chain disruption inflation down from 9% to 3%, and yet more action is needed. Inflation in housing that for 25% of apartment renters takes 50% of household income is a challenge. Biden proposed a 5% cap on rent raises, Harris proposed capping rent payment at 30% of household income and  government aid for amounts above 30%. By contrast Trump program promises little to help with housing costs, and economic policy is limited to tax cuts heavily skewed to wealthier households. ...

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Caterpillar is asking workers at its Canadian plant to accept a large cut in wages and benefits. Wages and benefits at Caterpillar's rail equipment plant in LaGrange, Illinois, are less than 50% of the costs at the Caterpillar locomotive assembly plant in London, Ontario. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. manufacturing labor costs per unit of output were 13% lower in 2010 than in 2000. This compares with an increase of 2.3% in Germany, increase of 18% in Canada, and increase of 15% in South Korea. Caterpillar is also asking for more flexible work rules at the Canadian plant. The flip side of this is that U.S. workers are earning significantly less in manufacturing, especially considering inflation, and the middle class is shrinking in the U.S. At the same time wages in the U.S. that are more competitive with wages in Mexico and China with flexible work rules and use of automation and technology, is helping to reverse the shrinking of the manufacturing sector in the U.S....

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Friedman on how lower oil prices could provide a solution to the nuclear problem with Iran as well as diplomatic solutions to other problems.

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The corporate share buybacks announced by U.S. companies in the last 3 months now exceed $200 billion, more than double than in 2017, according to a WSJ analysis. This includes Cisco, Wells Fargo, AbbVie, Amgen, Alphabet (Google). The surge in corporate buybacks started in December after the tax cut of the Trump administration cut U.S. taxes by $1.5 trillion over a decade, cutting the corporate tax rate for large companies from 35% to 21%. The tax cut also included a one time tax for repatriation of $2 trillion held by U.S. companies overseas. This WSJ analysis says there are questions whether the tax cut is working, whether it will encourage new investment, lead to companies increasing wages, or whether this will largely result in corporations returning money to investors with larger dividends and corporate buybacks. Morgan Stanley's analysis of earnings transcripts of companies in the S&P 500 show 44% of the companies say they will use some portion of the tax gains to make capital investments and increase wages, with 28% going in the opposite direction and using them to return money to shareholders. Experts caution that corporate buybacks do not always lead to the company's stock outperforming the stock market. The future of companies depends more on the capital investments and in human capital. There is a sense that workers wages have stagnated since the mortgage financial crisis in 2008, with the economic crisis, globalization and outsourcing, reduced alternatives for workers, geographic pressures in relocation, all pushing wages down.  This is being closely watched with articles on stagnation in wage growth this week in the NYT and WSJ, and earlier in the Economist magazine. Reports on the Trump administration tax cuts passed by a Republican Congress suggested a large tilt towards benefitting the highest income households. Problem with higher stock prices reaching the broader middle class are recognized in that one third of stocks are owned by overseas investors, and 84% of the remaining stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10%. Republicans have turned to bonuses typically of $1000 per person given by companies yet this amounts now to about a few billion dollars over an estimated 4 million Americans, says this WSJ analysis. This is not enough to justify a huge tax cut and raise the deficit by over a trillion over 10 years on the assumption that it would lead to higher wages or capital investment when about $200 billion goes to boosting stock prices. This comes at a time when the American middle class is not broadly invested in the stock market after the exit following the battering stock prices took during the 2008 financial crisis. ...

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Germany will provide Ukraine with $200 million for aid to internally displaced people. About 7 million people in Ukraine are internally displaced inside Ukraine. Most of the refugees are women, elderly and children. The internally displaced are in addition to the millions of people who are refugees in Poland and other countries.

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In the event that the US Supreme Court halts president Biden's student loan payments assistance plan about 45 million borrowers will be affected in the US. Young people who believed in getting a higher education or going to university will be penalized for that decision. It will affect the retail sector and standards of living, during a cost of living crisis.One of the achievements of the 20th century similar to achievements in medicine and other fields was the open access to education to all. Without it no part of the world can call itself part of enlightened civilization coming out of the creation of the modern world which started in Europe and spread to the US, then to Asia.

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Indian Finance Minister Sitharaman gives the following remarks in parliament on the White Paper presented to the 18th Lok Sabha in January 2024, describing the dire condition of the Indian economy by 2013 with mismanagement and "big ticket" corruption. India's Finance Minister Sitharaman describes the situation in three key areas by 2013 that left the economy of India in a fragile state, with projects stalled, development delayed, and capital investment not taking place. She gives as 3 main points of focus- the state of affairs at Defense Ministry, at the Environment Ministry, and for Energy supplies. At the outset she says PM Modi had suggested the need for such White Paper by 2015 so that future generations would know what had happened in India that failed the country at a time when China had already joined the community of developed nations. The issues go back to the coal scandal when coal auctions had to be cancelled by the Supreme Court for irregularities, the misuse of state owned banks leading to a large increase in non performing loans, and the mismanaged Commonwealth Games under government before 2014.  Sitharaman told parliament this had the effect of national security being compromised, Environment as a Ministry becoming a bottleneck, and the leadership failing the country. In the military there was a critical shortage of ammunition and equipment. She cites the Defense Minister at the time having the attitude that independent India has had a policy for many years not to develop the border areas, as an undeveloped border was better than a developed border. She also says Ministry stated that 92% of the Defense Budget was used up and major acquisitions have to wait for the military. Following this Sitharaman cited the scandals of that period and leakages of funds that weakend the country and failed its people. She compared capital expenditures today of 6.22 lakh crores in 2024 thre times the number in 2013 of 2.53 crores. HAL now makes Tejas jets and helicopters in Made in India production. At the Environment Ministry the delays that were 86 days reached a high of 316 days by 2013 for approval of development projects, with 355 projects pending, the nation brought to a standstill with the effects of the coal supplies to thermal power plants being wholly inadequate and Coal India in poor shape. The root of this was said Sitharaman- what everyone in Indian business knew, the term "genteel facts," as the cost of business going up. She cites the changes since then of aiming for Balance and Development- Transparency, Online Green Clearance, Standardized Environment Impact Studies, A new Department of Climate change, International Solar Alliance 2015, Mission Life 2022, Green Hydrogen, Namami Gange, Rooftop Solar. India set ambitious goals at the last Climate change Conference.    ...

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Patrick Chovanec of Tsinghua University, says the loan target for 2011, though smaller than 2010, will still be over one and a half times the money lent in 2008. Stephen Green, head of research for Standard Chartered, says if anyone is printing money, it appears to be China's central bank, not the US. During a meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing goals are being set for the next 12 months. One expert predicts the governmet may set official targets of 4% inflation (it is running at about 4.7% at this time) and 6.5 trillion yuan of lending in new loans in 2011, compared to 7.5 trillion in 2010. Questions remain whether China can manage a soft landing after the huge surge in lending and the continued asset bubble.

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Lamar Alexander, Republican Senator from Tennessee, and one of the longest serving Senators, votes against calling for witnesses in the Senate trial of U.S. president Trump. The vote against is 51 to 49, with 2 Republican senators, Collins of Maine and Romney of Utah voting for calling witnesses. Within hours of Mr. Alexander expressing his intention to vote against Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska decided she would vote against.  This vote was crucial in concluding the impeachment trial because of Mr. Alexander's reputation for fairness and his service as governor, university president, secretary of education, during a time when traditions of bipartisanship were honored. Mr Alexander stated his reason for his vote even though he believed Mr. Trump acted inappropriately. Was an improper decision on Ukraine by Mr. Trump at the level of treason or high crimes and misdemeanors? Mr. Alexander said it was not. Mr. Alexander shared his view saying what was on the mind of most Republican Senators including Sasse and Graham but expressed clearly- "For the Senate to tear up the ballots in this election and say Mr. Trump could'nt be on it, the country probably wouldn't accept it. It would just pour gasoline on cultural fires burning out there."   ...

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Klopp in this video in The Guardian says Manchester City is the best team in the world and Haaland the best striker. To close Haaland down would mean other opportunities would be created for Manchester City with its other world class players, says Klopp as his team Liverpool faces Manchester City this week.

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US vice president Kamala Harris's grandfather was in the Indian Civil Service and was sent to Zambia as an adviser to president Kenneth Kaunda to help with settlement of refugees fleeing Southern Rhodesia during apartheid. She revisits Lusaka and the place where she lived.

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In India Article 21 in the Constitution and the Medical Termination of Pregnancy (Amendment) Act 2021, provides protection for women.