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Such realism is needed today to listen to all so that climate change action on auto carbon emission can be de-politicized and realistic plan can be adopted. Too many floods, fires and adverse events by 2024 for the US not to have a plan and deny climate change does not exist. The Biden administration gives flexibility to automakers to meet auto carbon emissions rules by 2032 by accelerating the progress in the last 3 years as the capital investments, research and learning curve for new technologies, manufacturing improvements and cost reduction, and charging station infrastructure enlargement have taken place by 2030. Biden administration officials clearly understand resistance of carbuyers when the charging stations needed do not exist and costs are high in 2024, and EV technologies are at learning stage.

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Indian prime minister says on the lawn of the White House that India does not want to replace China in manufacturing, it wants to see India as the world's manufacturing centre in diversified supply chains where there is no overconcentration in one country which happened before the pandemic. Biden does not favor free trade agreements because in addition to undermining American workers and the environment, it also has the effect of shifting manufacturing to China because of loose agreement clauses about sources of manufacture and because many of the countries in the free trade agreements depend on China for manufacturing. India and the US are at a unique inflection point because both countries are gearing up for  new relationships in manufacturing and in the supply chains.

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Labor leader Starmer says he is not for abolishing tution fees in Britain because of the reality in 2023. Tution fees are capped in Britain at 9250 pounds a year. There are no tution fees in Germany and Sweden. A survey by the Higher Education Policy Institute shows only 28% of students want to abolish tution fees completely. 23% want to cut fees to 6000 pounds, 15% want to cut it to 3000 pounds. Two thirds of students want to see fees dropped to below 6000 pounds. Only 20% want to keep the 9250 pounds cap. This could mean Labor would  change this promise of abolishing to keeping fees at a very affordable level and target low income students with financial assistance. This report in the Times looks at Labor's promises and what is Kept and what is Broken. It is interesting to note that on support to labor, to workers and families, Starmer is as vigorous as Mr. Biden in the US. This is true also of supporting incomes of workers and families including increasing wages to meet the cost of living crisis. Labor is also keeping its promises on Climate Change. It is taking a look at nationalizing rail, water and other services based on how much it will cost and what the benefit is, what can be done in other ways to ensure services are provided at quality levels and prices that are good for workers and families. ...

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Honda is now exporting the small compact Fit made at its Chinese plant to Canada. A Honda plant in Mexico will assemble the Fit and export the car to the U.S. and Canada in 2014.

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Washington Post Analysis and reporting shows Russian economy is now sensitive to cuts in oil purchases by India. Russian economy with $213 billion a year in the war effort would suffer from higher inflation and interest rates higher than current 18% if India cuts Russian oil purchases of about $119 billion a year. A shift may be already taking place as India buys more from Saudis, UAE and Iraq. Studies by CLSA cited in the Economic Times show India gaining only about $1 to 3 billion by buying Russian oil. India has much more to gain by shifting away from Russian oil. Russian inflation is at 9% and the economic growth is about 0.4%.  A further increase in interest rates from 18% in a war time economy could kill the civilian economy say experts in Russia the Washington Post has talked to. About 17% of Russian refineries production is removed by Ukrainian strikes on refineries in Russia, leading to higher prices for oil. More crude oil is being exported instead of refined product as a result. This explains why the US under president DJT decided to take the difficult step to deter India from Russian oil purchases as it would not have been able to get China to reduce its $136 billion Russian oil purchjases each year the way it could for India. This was done to end the war even though it is little understood in India.  ...

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Arizona remains a state where the Republican and Democratic parties are very close. As Senator Krysten Sinema a Democrat, supported the Republican filibuster that required 60 votes for major legislation and thwarted some of president Biden's legislation to help workers and families in the US. Having alienated some Democrats she is now running for the Senate as an Independent. Her likely opponent from the Republican party is Kari Lake. Arizona is split three ways evenly for Republicans, Independents and Democrats. The question for Sinema says a Republican strategist is whether there are enough independents and soft Republicans who will vote for Sinema. Rep. Ruben Gallego is running for Democrats, Kari Lake for Republicans. Another question is whether Kari Lake's association with Mr. Trump could hurt Republicans in Arizona. Synema faces a difficult three way race as Democrats see her flagging support on key initiatives of the president as a serious problem.

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Rates are increasing in the $4 trillion repurchase agreement market. The repurchase agreement market or repos market is the main source of short term funding for firms in the financial markets. Borrowers put up Treasury securities as collateral. The difference beween the value of the collateral and the cash loan amount is known as the "haircut." The current collateral requirement is $102 of Treasurys for $100 in cash loan. If the U.S. is downgraded to AA the collateral could go up to $103 or higher. This would lead to firms coming up with more Treasury securities for loans. The rate for overnight transactions also goes up. The rate was up form 0.01 % to 0.1% in the last week. The result could be dislocation in financial markets as firms have to come up with more collateral and pay higher repo rates, and some firms prefer to hold cash.

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China's Bright Foods Group acquires a 60% stake in Britain's cereal maker, Weetabix Food company. Cereal demand is growing in China and increased to 1.2 billion yuan or $191 million in 2011. This is an increase of 70% over 2006, according to Euromonitor International. Everbright sees large potential for Weetabix cereal in Asian markets. Cereal Partners Worldwide, a joint venture of General Mills, Nestle SA and Seamild Group of China, has the largest share for cereals in the Chinese market. Everbright is looking for more acquisitions as it plans to double sales in China by 2015 to about $14 billion. It has 3,300 retail stores in China. With the Weetabix stake Everbright gains shelf space and distribution channels in Europe and the U.S. An effort to take a 50% stake in French yogurt maker Yoplait failed in an earlier bid when it lost out to General Mills.

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Egypt's new prime minister, Hazem el-Beblawi, in July 2013, is a professor of Economics who received his doctorate from the University of Paris in 1964. He has taught economics at universities in Egypt, Kuwait, France and the U.S. After 15 years teaching at the University of Alexandria, he worked in development banks in the Middle East for another 15 years, joining the Finance Ministry in 2011. He resigned in protest against military shooting of protesters at the time. Egypt has about $14.9 billion in reserves according to Egypt's central bank, less than the $15 billion needed for three months of imports. Egypt needs to negotiate a $4.8 billion loan from the IMF. Earler negotiations were stymied by the military in 2011, and el-Beblawi will now be negotiating with the head of the Constitutional Court as president, after the ouster of president Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood.

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As the Fed cuts rates again moving to 0.5% on December 16, 2008, as expected , it brings US interest rates closer to Bank of Japan's rate of 0.3%. Higher rates have led Japan's giant insurance companies and pension fundsinto Us Treasury's, with Japan holding $ 573 billion in US Treasurys in September according to the USA Treasury Department. On 4 week securites the US has already sold Treasurys last week at a yield of zero which attracted money as a safe haven.On December 12, the dollar settled at 91.04 yen, down 18.4% this year. The concern is that a weaker dollar could result from a move away from dollar assets and the stronger yen would further weaken the prospects for Japanese exporters.

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This report in The Guardian explains what a split Congress means in the US as the Republicans control the House and Democrats control the Senate in the midterms of 2022. This means legislative logjam says The Guardian.  The narrow majority also means there will be difficulty for the Republican Speaker to control the House with 3 newcomers from New York and others as moderates, and a mix of views within Republicans.

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The housing downturn as a result of sharply higher interest rates as the Fed's Jay Powell takes on surging inflation is very different from the problems of bank's shoddy mortgages of 2008. The 2008 financial crisis was a banking crisis from overleveraging by US banks and the use of questionable mortgages in housing. The rules set down and strict regulation since 2008 protect the housing market from the errors of 2008.

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Speaking at a fireside chat at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington D.C. Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman describes the task of lifting hundreds of millions from poverty in India done over the last 10 years. When China did this for about 400 million people by 2000 it had the support of the people of the US and Europe and the US opened its doors to favor China in its supply chain. How will the US and European Union respond to the same situation in India? This was accomplished in the US and Europe by the 1930's building on the work in the 1900 period. "We are reaching near saturation in providing the basic facilities to the people of the country. Have we removed these many number of people from poverty and lifted them out." "And that is to give them some good house to live in which is made of concrete and not of thatched roof with toilets in them, with drinking water reaching them through pipes, electricity, and a good road, not just the village, but also to streets in the village, and then connect them to the nearest highway; connect them with good transport facility and so on. And financial inclusion so that each member of the household has a bank account and they get every such benefit, which has to reach them, but directly into their bank account rather than through a middle agency. On skilling people "We are now focusing very much on skilling people, each according to their level. Skilling centers are now spread all over the country. The gradation of the skilling varies according to the individuals. Businesses and private sector entrepreneurs are also tied into it so that there is a link between the kind of training businesses want and actually those who are getting the training so that immediately they can get recruited. There will be a lot of skilling emphasis. On expanding the formalization of the economy getting rid of "the grey layer" India's digitization programme will be going on at full throttle and it'll cover most aspects of our lives. Today it covers health, education, and financial transactions. We expect it to move on to other areas as well so that there is greater ease of living and transparency, the economy gets even more formal. And therefore with that, you find  the economy gets its full strength coming on board, rather than having a second layer, which remains in the grey area. ...

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French nuclear force Rafale jets have $6.6 billion annual cost 2025. German leader chancellor Merz is considering sharing French nuclear arsenal for defense of Germany. Macron has met Merz 3 times and the discussions go on. Germany has removed its debt brake in its Constitution setup by Merkel, so that $ 1 trillion can be spent on infrastructure including defense spending. This report in the WSJ looks at the 290 warheads of France and 250 of Britain on submarines as deterrents with additional deterrent from US NATO nuclear forces. US has asked for burden sharing on conventional forces not nuclear forces. Yet Europe sees the US as less of a reliable ally under DJT in 2025, and considering building its own nuclear deterrent.

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On one hand Chinese environmental officials are aware of the pollution problems in Beijing and Shanghai and other cities. Levels of nitrogen dioxide in Beijing exceed the WHO clean air guidelines by 78%. On the other hand the newly emerging middle class is seeking car ownership, and the local government officials need growth in the car industry to show good GNP and GDP growth numbers on which their performance is judged. Beijing and Shanghai and Anhui province local governments are part owners of some auto companies. About 416,000 people are employed in the Shanghai area auto industry alone and the auto industry in Shanghai pays about 900 millon dollars in taxes, according to government figures. At seven cars per 1000 population car sales are just beginning to take off. And with China's population its clearly not going to be possible to have the same level of ownership as in the US. The same is true for India. This would increase by many times the current demand for crude oil and increase emissions to the point of creating a disaster. And even today because of lax enforcement, and older models on the road, about 40% of vehicles in Beijing have no pollution controls and the other 60% have varying degrees of pollution controls. Experts say changes to the subsidized oil price policy, refineries that produce cleaner gasoline, policies to build more mass transit which has lagged behind in China as car sales took off (and probably more GNP impact from car plants than mass transit which act as inducement for local officials), and stricter fuel efficiency and auto emissions standards are needed....

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The new Australian budget is designed to generate a slight surplus from the A$44 billion deficit for the fiscal year ending June 30. This prepares the Australian government of Julia Gillard for elections in 2013. The budget depends on the mining boom to generate the tax revenues for planned economic growth of over 3% in 2012-2013. This is based on the large number of projects planned for investments in oil, gas and other energy projects, valued at US$456 billion. GE as supplier of turbines and other products to the Chevron-Total gas project and other projects in Australia, has sales in Australia match its sales level in China in 2012-2013. This gives an idea of the extent of the boom in the mining and energy sector. Even the widening trade deficit to A$1.59 in March 2012 reflects large imports for the mining sector. The weakness of this approach is that too much is dependent on the mining and offshore gas boom. Retail spending is weak and Australia is increasingly looking like a two tier economy, subject to the boom and bust cycles that its mining companies have experienced in the past. A bubble in Australia's housing markets and uncertainties in the global economy pose other risks....

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This report in the WSJ points to president Biden's speech to a joint session of the US Congress that providing two years of free community college would "change the dynamic" for education in America taking the first step to correct a dangerous drop in college enrollment for young men in America and ensuring working class families have access to college education. The last thirty years of skewed wealth distribution, loss of manufacturing in America, have created alarming distortions in  the access to college education for working class families. Mrs. Biden is a fervent advocate for community college access in today's America, as a community college teacher for 30 years. Biden's $45.5 billion 5 year plan would waive tution for 2 years of public community college. States would have to opt-in to participate, and federal government would provide 100% funding in the first year, decreasing contribution by 5% each subsequent year, with states picking up rest of the cost. It is quite shocking that this is being dropped from the Biden $3.6 trillion Families and Workers Plan that is now being whittled down to $2 trillion. Not because it is not badly needed for American economic competitiveness, and helping workers and families. But because following narrow parochial interests the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities opposes it. And because the US Congress is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans 50-50 in the Senate. The Association of Independent Colleges sees a shift to community colleges and a sharp drop in its enrollment. Community colleges saw a dangerous drop in enrollment of 12% to 4.5 million students in 2020 from the spring of 2019, according to National Student Research Center. Never was a program more badly needed, as American men are alarmingly falling behind in enrollment. Here are some responses to the failure to take even the first steps to broaden college access so that America can return to economic competitiveness. "What kind of world do we want to live in?" Martha Kanter, College Promise. "That's kind of a devil's choice, isn't it? The whole system has to work from infant care all the way through." Senator Tina Smith, Democrat of Minnesota. This is because child care and children's education will be funded yet a struggling generation of college students will be left out. US Chamber of Commerce opposes a $45 billion program that is critical to American competitiveness with China and other countries. US Congress drops a program that at $45 billion is only about 2% of the $2 trillion package and which is critical to economic competitiveness. Former Republican Governor Bill Haslam of Tennessee supports community college access as a pillar of economic development and it passed the supermajority in 2014. Mike Krause, Republican former director of the state higher education commission says- "I have been surprised by the lack of enthusiasm for what is really a massive workforce development concept that also provides a path to the middle class. You'd think that would hold some appeal for Republicans and Democrats." The lack of clarity and concentration, lack of unity of purpose to get all vaccinated,  is visible in America's vaccination drive. That same lack of clarity and concentration, lack of unity of purpose, is visible in America's faltering efforts at correcting serious and alarming problems for access to college and American competitiveness in the world. Julie Bykowicz and Douglas Belkins wrote this article in the WSJ.   ...

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The India-Pakistan-Afghanistan issues are still framed in the old way in terms of communalism, cold war then and the war on terrorism now. These policies were a legacy of the colonial policies of an earlier empire designed to preserve foreign rule, with a policy of perpetuating divisions between communties on religious and other lines. Modernization, the spread of mass communications that makes possible the reduction of prejudice and division by assimilating different values and beliefs into acommon aspiration for progress and better living standards, and the spread of education, commerce, and technological progress, create the conditions that should put this behind us. Put behind us communalism, and the political and military structures of communal states. Pakistan needs to be transformed from a communal state with a military structure designed to preserve that state - resulting in conflicts with its neighbors- into a state that represents a community and a religion, but in all other ways seeks peaceful coexistence and economic integration with the rest of South Asia. A good example of this is Mexico with its own culture, language and religion (Spanish Catholicism), and Canada with its own bilingual French-English heritage and British political structures and allegiances, both arriving at an arrangement of peaceful coexistence and economic integration with the USA with its different political structures and culture and sporadic conflicts with Canada and Mexico. This has promoted the peaceful development of the North American region. The US involvement in the region can then be seen as a misguided effort that continued framing the region's differences in the old British way or in a cold war stereotyping, first with John Foster Dulles in the India-Pakistan conflicts, and then with Reagan in the Afghan anti-Soviet war. This has worked to exacerbate the conditions that led to slow progress in the drive for economic development, infrastructure building and modernization in all of South Asia. Just as in Europe, as in North America, the processes of economic development work best when a policy of inclusiveness and integration of different communities and people is followed. ...

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Swiss face 39% tariff by US after "disastrous" call by Swiss president to DJT higher even than proposed 31%. Swiss surplus of $46 billion is the issue in US trade. Swiss say they can't import chocolates from the US, the US thinks they can take in oil and LNG. Swiss have not learnt from the UK, EU and Japan, South Korea which came up with solutions to cut deficits with the US, knowing the US was serious to cut it's trade deficits. India faces the same problem as the Swiss, the need to come up with solutions and think that this is a new system of world trade that replaces the old one that lasted for 50 years and is now gone- call it LPF -a level playing field for all countries.

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It was a Labour government in 2005 that inroduced the rule that allowed a migrant who remained inthe UK for 5 years to be able to apply for leave to remain and to have path to citizenship. It is now 20 years since then and this has done  a great deal of damage in the UK as it faces divisions in society that affect the plans to improve lives of the people and invest in building infrastructure. European Commission of Humnan Rights also drafted these rights in wanton fashion not accepting the rights of any people in any nation to live in their own neighborhoods without what are called asylum hotels and migrants. Denmark had such laws before 2015. Denmark changed these laws, and the UK finally is set to change these laws that hurt growth and investment in Britain with unnecessary distraction from the task of building infrastructure and investing in public services from migrants illegally entering the country. Under the new rules in Denmark temporary residenc epermits are granted only for 1-2 years at a time, no permanent visas are granted. To gain permanent status one has to have full time job for several years and speak fluent Danish. Shabana Mahmood, the new UK head of the Home Ministry says-  “Denmark shows us how to be firm but fair: removing the incentives that draw illegal migrants to their borders while providing refuge to those in genuine need. “That is why we will follow the Danish model to restore order and control to our borders.” Mahmood's position is supported by Green and Labour voters is shown More in Common polling. This is important for Labour to succeed. She says about illegal migrants and the strain on public services- “The levels of illegal migration are putting immense strain on our country, and our public services – creating division within communities across the country. “Illegal migration is undermining the contract between government and its citizens – eroding support for the asylum system entirely.” ...

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Britain's prime minister Johnson has gained approval for 16 billion military buildup for naval and other buildup for the next 4 years. It was apparent for some time during the administrations from Blair through the financial crisis driven by banks under Cameron, that Britain had lost its resolve to have a strong military capability. This was evident in its handling of Hong Kong, from the transfer to its weak response to the situation in Hong Kong as participatory democracy failed in Hong Kong. During the period after the second world war Britain failed to bring participatory democracy in Hong Kong under its rule. Labour and Conservative administrations made no effort even as participatory democracy was brought to large parts of Asia and Africa through independence, following democratic elected legislatures in the period between two wars in India and Ceylon. No such effort was made in Hong Kong leading to questions about its own commitment to the principles when China introduced its own government in Hong Kong by changing legal structures.  Britain lacked the military capability and its partnership with France and the U.S. was also weaker because of other distractions from middle east conflicts and internal problems. This is now changing with the military capability buildup for the next 4 years. This is happening as France under Macron takes a new posture in its battle to defend the ideals of its Republic, and rebuild its manufacturing capabilities. ...

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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This NYT report by Thrush, Shear and Sullivan, looks at retired Marine general John Kelly, the head of Homeland Security till he was made the new chief of staff at the White House. He replaces Vince Priebus, who was the Republican National Party chairman during the 2016 election, becoming the new White House chief of Staff in January 2017. Priebus lasted only 6 months. This report points out that presidential family members Kushner and Ivanka Trump now report to Kelly, as part of the new discipline imposed by Kelly in an effort to reverse the chaotic situation in the White House with different quarreling factions. Kelly made this a condition for his taking the position, which Trump accepted as he was keen on firing Vince Priebus and had asked Kelly to take the job since May. Kelly is shown here as monitoring the contacts of Cabinet secretaries with the president. Who sees the president and for how long is now determined by Kelly to impose rigorous discipline. Kelly supported McMaster in the dismissal of a National Security Council member supported by Bannon and Kushner, in an effort to bring discipline. There is one area Kelly does not get into- the tweeting and personal affairs of the president. His job as he sees it is to put some bureaucratic competence around the president. In doing this he takes a tough approach that so far is respected by president Trump, as the presidency suffered from repeated setbacks from infighting and leaks. Will Kelly last where others have failed is a question posed in this report. Two people who were superiors of Kelly give their opinions. Kelly reported to Leon Panetta, a former chief of staff under Bill Clinton who was Defense Secretary, and to Robert Gates,  a Republican who was Defense Secretary. Panetta may know him closely as Kelly was his chief military aide as Defense Secretary. Panetta says of Kelly, that Kelly never minced words, said what he thought looking at you in the eye- if he thought a proposal was nuts he would say it right out. The big question Panetta says is whether president Trump will give him the authority for long. Also stated in this report is that Kelly called Comey when he was fired as FBI Director, and that Kelly even considered resigning in protest.  Less noticed even in this report is the way in which a team of experienced politicians and the senior most officials in defense and national security are working together in August 2017. In an interview with Washington Post editor Ignatius broadcast on PBS, Republican Senator Corker described how he works closely with them, and how the key people in defense and national security work together before they see the president. The appointment of Kelly helps to create a core independent group of advisors around the president, which is positive in the event the U.S. has to respond to a crisis. ...

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Each year the amount of forestedd land that is cleared- mainly for cattle needing pasture land- releases the equivalent of greenhouse gas emissions of 600 million cars. Since 1961 methane gas emissions from cattle has increased significantly. This is one of the findings in a report published by 100 climate change experts for a UN body. Loss of peatlands in places like Indonesia is also a problem.  A half a billion people already live in desert. And land is being lost a hundred times faster than it is forming due to changes in weather patterns.  People migrate when weather fails as has happened for central American farmers migrating to the U.S. creating social and political problems in North America. A major issue in climate change is agriculture.  Increasing the productivity of land, reducing food wasted, persuading more people to eat healthy vegetables and less meat, reducing land lost to desertification, erosion and seas, are all actions that can be taken now say these 100 experts from 52 countries meeting in Geneva. The IPCC or Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change does these reports to give people some idea of what actions to take to reduce the impact of warming that threatens livelihoods of millions especially in Africa and India, as well as other parts of Asia and Latin America. Developed countries are likely to feel the impact from migration which is dividing their societies politically and socially. As one expert from Aberdeen puts it people don't just stay where they are when drought conditions hit their areas, they migrate. ...

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The Trump campaign still operates on the basis of the idea "Let Trump be Trump." It is only now beginning the effort to set up a campaign organization for the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, intending to do this with with lean structure at the top. On policy proposals Trump says he will rely on experts in each field. For a tax plan he has asked advisors to come up with a plan that simplifies and cuts taxes, aids the middle class, tackles abuses such as corporate "inversions" and to "tax the paper pushing hedge-fund guys." Jeb Bush has adopted a similiar position in the tax plan he has announced. Trump appeals to voters with anti-establishment rhetoric appealing to the average voter, mixed with a dose of individual bravado. The political organization has Corey Lewandowski as campaign manager, Michael Glassner as national political director, Daniel Scavino as head of social media, and Hope Hicks as press secretary. Lewandowski's only experience is heading the 2002 re-election effort for Republican Bob Smith to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire, in which John Sununu was elected. The campaign lacks the experience and ground support for a long effort in the Republican primaries, and experts say it would face a vigorous television ad campaign from opponents as the primaries get closer....