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Islamists in the Egyptian parliament write the new constitution after liberals and Coptic Christians walk out. The rushed approach to writing it to meet a deadline and dissolution by judges critical of president Morsi has prevented the careful thought and discussion needed for writing a constitution. The existing constitution under military rulers of Egypt was revised instead of writing a new constitution from the beginning. The constitution also preserves the privileges of the military and the lack of oversight over the defense budget and military afairs by the elected civilian government. It also preserves the right for people to be tried in military courts for acts considered damaging to the armed forces. Opposition leader El Baradei says this new constitution will not not survive because of the way it was drafted. The opposition to decrees granting new powers to president Morsi that are above judicial oversight and protests in the streets of Cairo also creates new uncertainty.

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With a 6% decline in sales in Europe expected for 2012, the problems at GM's Opel operations are expected to worsen. GM's sales in Europe declined by 2% in 2011. Critics say GM has not give enough attention to Opel's operations. Giving it only an afterthought after being overwhelmed by problems in the U.S. operations, and mostly using the design expertise of its engineering center in Russelheim, near Frankfurt. The Buick Regal is based on the Opel Insignia and the work of Opel engineers. Ferdinand Duddenhoffer, professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany, says GM has neglected Opel and is not making good use of the manufacturing capacity at Opel. The problem, he says is production management and being able to shift quickly to different models based on demand, and using Opel as part of a global factory network. The repeated restructurings at Opel for 15 years have left this problem unresolved. In his view GM is still in the Middle Ages in this respect.

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Michael Gerson was there in June 2005, with then Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and nine Egyptian opposition figures, including presidential candidate Ayman Nour, in a shabby Cairo conference room. Rice was in that room to call on President Mubarak to allow free elections. Nour was skeptical about the result. The Mubarak legacy was to undermine all legitimate opposition to thirty years of rule. Gerson makes a remarkable statement when he says that the universal desire for self-government is rooted in the natural human resentment of humiliation. A 26 year old fruit vendor in Tunisia is humiliated and set himself on fire in protest, setting off protests against servility, oppression and silence. He calls the lack of faith in American ideals a pervasive failure of foreign policy elites. Someday he says, Americans are likely to say the same for China, with the complete absence of a policy for anticipating a democratic transition.

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Bill Gates on how to improve education in American schools by focussing on excellence in teaching. Excellence in teaching is the single most important variable in education, says Gates. The task, he says, is to identify the excellent teachers and transfer those skills to other teachers. He makes no mention of enriching the teacher pool, by attracting brighter education oriented people from society into teaching. He make some generalizations about class size and teachers studying for advanced degrees, saying they have no impact on educational achievement. This may be relative to the situation, depending on the actual class size and the numbers involved. And higher educational attainment by teachers is hardly a drawback in what the teacher can impart to students. It shows teachers actively engaged in the educational process themselves. Gates talks about improving education without additional spending, but does not address the issue of cuts in education spending in states that are reducing deficits. ...

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Germany recorded 9% growth, in the second quarter of 2010. Martin Wansleben, managing director of Germany's Chamber of Commerce and Industry, says the recovery pace is too fast and unsustainable. The spurt in growth may be shortlived and was mainly a result of a surge in exports to Asian markets. The countries that benefited from this growth are in Northern and Eastern Europe. France recorded 2.5% growth, Austria and the Netherlands 3.5% growth. Eastern European countries that help Germany export also did well, with Slovakia at 5% and Czech Republic at 3% growth. By contrast Southern European countries, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and countries like Ireland have not benefited. German growth has not resulted in markets for other countries as German consumer spending is tight. See the link to the expansion of the low-wage sector in Germany and the downside of this; with average wages actually falling in Germany in recent years.

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Russia's parliament voted to ratify Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization by a vote of 238 to 208. Opposition was led by the Communist party. The head of the Economic Expert Group in Moscow, Evsey Gurvich, says the new rules are important for Russia as Russia has no rules of the game today, the new rules will enhance competition. President Putin described the change in this way: "We joined the WTO because our economy is highly dependent on the external market in terms of both production and consumption. Excessive protectionism invariably leads to stagnation, low quality and high prices." The result from loss of revenue with lower tariffs is a loss of revenue of $5.7 billion in 2013, and $7.8 billion in 2014, according to Economic Development minister Belousov. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 convinced Putin that Russia had to participate in the decisions about the world economy because of the direct impact this has on Russia.

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Germany's Constitutional Court says it will require some time to look into the issues related to plaintiffs complaints about the creation of the European Stability Mechanism on June 29, 2012, by a vote of the German parliament, and whether it is unconstitutional. Finance minister Schauble urged the court not to delay because it woud affect market perceptions about Germany's commitment to tackle the eurozone crisis. Petitions were filed with the Constituional Court by a group of academics led by Peter Gauweiler, a member of parliament from Bavaria, and a Social Democrat Herta Daubler-Gmelin, a former Justice minister on behalf of 12,000 citizens. The petitions say the creation of the ESM and the fiscal pact are unconstitutional because it forces parliament to cede powers over Germany's federal budget. Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, said a quick decision by the court is not likely to end the crisis, as this would not end without the necessary structural and economic reforms.

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Tokyo Electric Power says that a total of 11,125 spent nuclear fuel rod assemblies were stored at the Fukushima nuclear plant. Experts say that this is 4 times as much radioactive material as in the reactor cores combined. Germany and China do not store these spent fuel rods at their nuclear plants for safety reasons. This is the practice in Japan, at Fukushima, and at some U.S. nuclear plants.The storage pools of water needed to keep these fuel rods has leaked because of the earthquake. And there are signs that some fuel rods have begun to melt and release extremely high levels of radiation. Richard Lafey, Jr., is a retired nuclear engineer who supervised General Electric's safety research for the type of reactor used in Fukushima. He says the zirconium cladding of the fuel rods can catch fire if exposed to air for hours, when the storage pool of water is lost. Zirconium, after it catches fire is so hot that its hard to extinguish.

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Flipkart, India's largest online retailer, was started by 2 Amazon executives in 2007. Flipkart has 22 million registered users and hosts 3000 merchants selling products ranging from electronics to clothing. Flipkart sales reached $1 billion in the last 12 months. In July 2014 Flipkart raised $1 billion from a group of investors including Tiger Global Management, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC. This follows the raising of $210 million in May 2014 from a group of investors led by DST Global, a Russian investor. Competitors include Amazon and eBay backed SnapDeal. Funds raised will be used to hire more engineers and improve mobile technologies, as over half of sales are made on mobile phones. India's online retail market is expected to grow 11 fold to $23 billion by 2018, according to Nomura brokerage firm. Flipkart earns money by charging merchants a fee for products sold on its online website.

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Failing schools with poor teachers, and no examination system to keep out teachers who lack training and education, are a major problem for Mexico. It was part of the education reforms passed in Congress in 2013. A week before elections the militant teachers union CNTE has mounted protests to prevent this from taking place. The Mexican government of president Nieto temporarily suspended examinations as a result of the protests. This article in the Economist magazine says this affects the credibility of the government's committment to the reforms Mexico needs to become competitive in the global economy, and could affect how investors see the reforms being implemented for the oil industry. It also questions the autonomy of independent bodies setup to implement the reforms, leading to a statement by the National Institute for Education Evaluation(INEE), clearly setup by Congress to implement this reform, that this violates the constitution. Can this happen to the telecom and energy regulators, whose authority could be undermined in other ways, say critics....

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Italy will get 6 billion euros in savings from lower interest rate charges on its debt as a result of lower borrowing costs in capital markets. Italy's borrowing costs were at record low of 2.08% for debt issued in 2013. The new budget fails to provide relief in payroll taxes that would help reduce high youth unemployment. A payroll tax cut will increase take home pay of lower income workers by about 15 euros a month. Carlo Cottarelli, IMF expert, has the task of doing a spending review to cut 32 billion euros in public spending within 3 years. The Letta administration is looking at which tax credits to eliminate. These tax breaks range from aftershool sports programs and veterinary costs and amount to 130 billion euros a year. Automatic measures to reduce spending are part of recent Italian legislation and act to keep spending down. limits in the event the political system fails to produce agreement.

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The auction of the Libra ultra-deep water oil field in the waters off Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Shell, Total and two Chinese companies took part in the auction. Libra is estimated to hold about 12 billion barrels of oil and combined with the other fields in the newly discovered area has about 50 billion barrels of oil. Brazil's laws passed after the discoveries offshore were made in 2006 give Petrobras a critical role in development of the oil fields. A new company Petrasal was created to oversee the new oil fields. The winning bidder in this auction is required to pay the government $7 billion in an upfront payment and source much of the equipment inside Brazil. New investments are required in education, infrastructure and supporting public services after nationwide street protests, making oil field development and new revenues a priority for the government of Dilma Rousseff and the Workers Party that runs the government.

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Elelven of twelve Fed Governors support the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates low till unemployment falls below 6.5%, as long as inflation remains subdued at 2-2.5% and inflation expectations are low. Only the Fed governor of Richmond expressed a dissenting vote. The Fed in its policy statement said it was addressing the problems of the last three years in housing and joblessness. Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed put it this way in a Sept 2011 speech- suppose the inflation rate was 5% when the target was 2%, then central banksers at the Fed would have acted as if their hair was on fire to tackle inflation, then why shouldn't the Fed do the same for unemployment. He succeeded in convincing Bernanke, Yellen and other Fed governors. Bernanke emphasized the enormous cost in human potential and productive capacity of the U.S. economy from high unemployment and people dropping out of the labor force.

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The European Stability Mechanism made its first short term debt auction Jan. 8, 2013, by selling 1.927 billion euros of treasury bills. Japan remains a key investor. Japanese finance minister, Taro Aso, said Japan plans to to be an active investor in the ESM bond sales. He told a news conference: "Japan will purchase some ESM bonds using its foreign exchange reserves as it monitors progress in efforts to stabilize the European situation." Japan holds $1.27 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. The move pushed the yen lower. Investors pay the ESM to keep cash for three months- the ESM treasury bills had an average yield of minus 0.0324%. The ESM fund will be used for aid to Spain's banking sector, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Plans are for the ESM to issue three month and six month bills twice a month to reach 18.5 billion euros by the end of 1st quarter 2013. The ESM fund rating is Aa1 by Moody's Investors Service, and AAA by Fitch Ratings.

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THe Thirty Years War that was fought between 1618 and 1648 devastated Europe and led to the deaths of 8 million people. TMedieval cities like Magdeburg were wiped out. The book by Wilson shows that it was areligious war between Catholic Hapsburgs and Protestant monarchs but it was also awar in which countries like France and Sweden tried to make territoial gains and in which armies simply used the war as apretext for plunder. The ruinous inflation of the small territories in Europe that made up the Holy Roman Empire as aresult of funding this war led to armies being left without pay and supplies, leading them to resort to plunder and not disbanding themselves. Its useful as it adds perspective to the current wars of religion in South Asia and in the Middle East and the perceived threats to US and Europe. Is it only religion or are there other factors in play.

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NYT exhortation for Congress to resist the lobbying pressures of the banks to weaken regulation for a Consumer Protection Agency and derivatives trading on exchanges. The first by amending legislation for a Consumer Protection Agency so that no states can pass tougher consumer protection laws, something that prevented states from protecting consumers from abuses in the mortgage business. The second to propose legislation for derivatives trading that allows corporations and hedge funds to trade derivatives privately. NYT editorial says Congress should require all derivatives dealers and users -banks, hedge funds and corporations- conduct their trades on exchanges where they are reglulations and public scrutiny. NYT responds to the banks and corporations that say this would raise their transaction costs to hedge any given risk, by saying that this is debatable. Greater transparency should reduce costs but even if there were some higher costs it would be outweighed by the larger benefits to the banks themselves and the country through the lower systemwide risks. ...

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Coorodination, forbearance and multilateralism are three ways to keep economic nationalism from disrupting a global trading system that has benefitted all countries. Even the small moves to help home countries like the the move for US steel in the American stimulus projects, and the demonstrations supporting "British jobs for British workers", and other steps that quietly find their way into individual countries efforts to protect their home industries and jobs, can over time build up into something that would exaggerate the size and extent of this economic downturn. Forbearance and leadership from the US government on this issue and by leading developed countries is vital. So is the effort to develop a coordinated effort through close consultation and joint monitoring of progress. And equally important is multilateralism which works to help emerging countries hit hardest, and help prevent millions from sinking back into poverty, thereby destroying the hope and aspirations that had propelled the global progress in improving living standards....

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Saudi Arabia which was seeing GDP growth of 4% a year is slowing and should see GDP growth at 2% in 2009. Overall Saudis are in much better shape than their cousins in the United Arab Emirates like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. THis is because the Saudi banking system followed conservative practices and parked its $500 billion in foreign assets in US and European government bonds. Saudis can use these funds to increase infrastructure, education and healthcare spending by an estimated 10% this year to about $150 billion. At the samt time the Saudis will have to pull back from the $600 billion of megaprojects that were planned and will have to put more government money in projects that do go ahead. There is likely to be a hold on the projects to build a number of new cities in remote parts of the country. Some like the King Abdullah Economic City planned for the Red Sea coast may get the go ahead.

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At the end of 2008 China's crude steel making capacity was 660 million tons, but production was only about 500 million tons. The draft plan for steel industry for phaseout of backward production capacity onlyphases out 25 million tons. Capacity for automobile production is 12 million but only 9.37 million were sold in 2008. The government plan encourages mergers but not much thought has bee given to reducing capacity. About 30% of aluminium capacity is idle, 20% of cement capacity, and 70% of semiconductor production is idle. Some of this overcapacity may have to be written off at this rate says a World Bank specialist. The Stimulus spending of $585 billion would help utilize some of this capacity but the concern is that once its clear that 10% growth rates each year are a thing of the past there will still be alot of unneeded capacity that will have to be written off at great expense.

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How the peg to the dollar creates two major problems for the Gulf countries, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia. First it means higher inflation in these countries, with double digit inflation in Qatar and the Emirates, and 5% in Saudi Arabia. Second it means policy inflexibility, monetary policy should be tightened when the Fed is easing. Monentary expansion is as much as 15 to 40% in the Gulf countries. There are 2 option one is a revaluation at a much higher exchange rate but this does not solve the problem of monetary inflexibility. The other is to peg to a basket of currencies including euro and dollar just as Kuwait has done. A shift to a peg to a basket of currencies would lead to diversification with these countries holding fewer dollars and would hurt the dollar. Saudi Arabia is reluctant to go with a different peg considering the dollars precarious situation but other Gulf countries may follow Kuwait.

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BMW lags Mercedes in return on sales its 6% vs Mercedes 8%. And it faces higher costs in meeting new EU emissions standards.Mercedes is doing a lot better now that it has gotten rid of the Chrysler distraction. One way is to develop new hybrid and other fuel economy and lower emissions technology in alliance with Daimler. Its developing a new hybrid engine with Daimler and GM of which a model was shown at the Frankfurt Auto Show. Improving profitability to have an 8%-10% return on sales by 2012 is the goal of BMW and it hopes to achieve this with a plan to create costs savings of 6 billion euros in a five yer plan announced by CEO Reithofer. in September 2007. This will mean thousands of layoffs and will mean that it will affect those with temporary contracts first and will include some buyouts also. BMW sales are growing and could reach 1.8 million by 2012.

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Joe Nocera of NYT on a bankruptcy like option in which the government loans money but sets tough terms, and has someone with the experience and strength and the governmental powers to set tough terms and insist on them being followed without vacillation by the unions or management. And the Congress passing new legislation under the President's leadership to override the state laws that prevent closure of dealerships. The union benefits and mindset and management mindset would go through the wrenching changes that the GM bureaucracy and the unions need to implement to eliminate the legacy costs, the higher benefits costs so that GM does not pay a penny more than Toyota or Honda to its workers when all costs are added up period. And plants that need to be closed would be closed without long negotiations and job retraining and new industries in energy and infrastructure and technology would create opportunities for these displaced workers by 2010 as part of the stimulus program.

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Russian prime minister Putin makes a road trip that stretches for 1,240 miles from Khabarovsk, near the Pacific coast, to Chita, a city near the Mongolian border. For half of the distance Putin drove a Russian made Lada compact, and for the other half he used a minivan. He seemed to be enjoying the trip shown on state media. The Wall Street Journal shows a picture of him filling gas in his yellow Lada car at a gas station somewhere in Siberia. Political analyst Alexei Makarkin, says the Medvedev-Putin partnership seems to work well, with Medvedev appealing to educated urban middle class, and Putin to the working classes with his informal style and manner. Driving on the soon to be completed Amur highway -which is historic because it links eastern and westen Russia for the first time- Putin was able to connect with local people and working class folk in small towns on the way.

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The unemployment rate drops to 7.8% from 8.1% in September according to the Labor Dept. The decline partly comes from people taking part time jobs because they are unable to find full time work. The establishment survey shows 104,000 jobs added in the private sector in September, and revises the figures for July and August to show 86,000 additional jobs created. Of the 104,000 jobs added, jobs increased in health care and transportation. Government added 10,000 jobs. Manufacturing jobs declined by 16,000, a cause for concern. A more accurate measure of unemployment is the underutilization of labor called U-6 by experts, this includes part time workers who would prefer to work full time- this has remained at 14.7% for Sept. 2012. The overall picture is that the job market remains sluggish. Because Labor Department numbers are prone to revision this could change in coming months. The slowing economy in China with the new stimulus in China coming in at one eighth the size of the old stimulus (1 trillion yuan over 4 years compared to 4 trillion yuan over 2 years 2009-2010) because of inflation concerns and risks of aggravating a property bubble, and the declining growth in the eurozone- France with zero growth in 2013 and Germany at 0.9%, Italy and Spain declining growth- means the prospects for U.S. economic growth will be lower in 2013. U.S. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter according to the Commerce Department, and Macroeconomic Advisors predicts GDP growth of 1.5% in the third quarter in downward revisions. ...