LyrArc Article Gist
With the Houthi control of northern Yemen Iran increases its influence in the region bordering Saudi Arabia. The vacuum that developed with the inaction of the Obama administrationin the U.S. and the Hollande administration in France leads to a power grab in the Middle East, with the UAE, Iran, Turkey, each aggressively pursuing its interests in the region, resulting in an enlarged area of conflict and rise in extremist movements.

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The U.S. Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls up by seasonally adjusted 192,000 in March 2014, with unemployment at 6.7%. Figures for January and February were revised upwards by 37,000. The figure for parttime workers who are looking for fulltime work was up by 225,000 from prior month to 7.4 million. Over the first 3 months of 2014 average hourly earnings were up by 2.1%, barely keeping up with inflation.

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The negotiations between the Justice Department and S&P that are likely to lead to a settlement with S&P paying a fine of $1 billion for bad ratings on mortgage securities. This would wipe out operating profits of one year for S&P. It comes after S&P initially responded that the civil suit was a punitive action as a result of its downgrade on U.S. Treasury debt.

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US president Biden signs legislation that gives rail workers in the US paid sick leave and 24% higher pay, $5000 bonuses in series of annual payments, and 7 days paid sick leave. The death of a rail worker because of paid sick leave and the stagnant wages of rail workers led Congress to act. Workers now feel they are being heard in the Biden presidency with Democrats control of the Senate and close contest for the House of Representatives. A rail strike would have hurt other working families said president Biden, and Congress acted in a timely manner to prevent losses to the economy of an estimated $2 billion a day from a rail strike.

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US public companies, manufacturers and retailers that make up more than half of the S&P 500 index, came out with strong sales per share of 24% increase in 2022 over 2019. This means slower growth is expected ahead in 2023, says Justin Lahart in the WSJ.  The shift to consuming more services such as dentist visits and tourism from buying washing machines and appliances will mean slower sales for these large companies that are manufacturers and retailers. Fed chairman Jay Powell's higher interest rates will also limit growth in sales in 2023. Overall the US economy may barely skirt a recession, and this depends on which forecaster one talks to.

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The $369 billion Biden climate change and tax bill moves forward with renewable energy but also keeps incentives in place for oil and gas drilling for the transition period now that there is an embargo on Russian fossil fuels. US now exports LNG to Europe with the cutoff of gas supplies from Russia and gas rationing in the EU. In this new situation Senator Schumer has come up with a new approach and is preparing to take this through the US Congress. It puts president Biden within reach of his climate goals for 2030 for 50% reduction of carbon emissions by 2030. This bill could accomplish 40% of that reduction.

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Major changes have happened in CEO's in 2019-2021 for major American companies in aerospace, automobiles and information technology hardware. Patrick Gelsinger is new CEO of Intel Corp. With Gelsinger come $95 billion in new investments in the US manufacturing of chips. Dave Calhoun is new CEO of Boeing as it increases investments in US manufacturing capabilities. Jim Farley is new CEO of Ford Motor Company. With Farley come billions of dollars in new investments and a shift to electric cars and electric car technologies. All three companies had new Chief Financial Officers within months of new CEO';s assuming their new roles.

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About 60% of Swiss voters in this Sunday's referendum on keeping Covid passes and restrictions in place favor keeping them. The referendum vote is likely to provide $6 billion for increasing nurses pay and benefits, which is a good thing as nurses are exhausted after 2 years of non stop work.  Vaccination rate is 65% of people vaccinated in Switzerland. In the US state of Michigan the vaccination rate is 58%, resulting in a surge in cases. Vaccination rates had stalled in Germany and Switzerland resulting in a surge in cases. New variant from South Africa adds to the problem of the unvaccinated in Europe and the US.

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Fox News and WSJ are taking differing positions on Epstein case with Fox News ignoring it and the WSJ carrying the story. Murdoch and DJT have a complicated relationship in July 2025 following the $10 billion DJT lawsuit against Murdoch filed in late July after a story in the WSJ. WSJ parent company Dow Jones says it stands by the story and will defend the accuracy of its reporting. Both the DJT Republicans and the Fox News network appeal to conservative viewers of television, and people in business. WSJ has carried stories questioning the tariff policies of the president, and is critical. It is also not fully supportive of policies to handle migrants. Fox News another Murdoch news outlet is through programs like "Hannity" supporting the president and DJT supports it. This creates a dichotomy in the support when DJT and Republicans are putting forward an agenda that is moving fast on the economy, migration, crime, and world trade requiring support to keep the conservative groups together in the US. This is not a situation encountered before as the nation is moving to a crossroads in which direction it should take. And this does not even take up the issues of climate protection which will come up, and of pharmaceutical companies overcharging Americans for healthcare, other battles that will take place.   ...

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It makes for good political rhetoric, but in reality the flow of money goes both ways. A lot of investments are made by American companies overseas. This time the flow of oil money because of high oil prices, from the USA and Europe to the Middle East is being recycled back to the USA in the form of investments in the US through small equity stakes in companies and more so through purchases of capital equipment and services to build Saudi infrastructure projects. The $500 billion investment plan over several years in Saudi Arabia is to build everything from new cities, aluminium plants, electricity generation plants and chemicals and plastics plants. The fears and rhetoric are overblown, as the USA also invests overseas with holdings according to the Treasury department of $6 trillion of foreign stock and debt. The acceleration of foreign investment in the US is to be seen in the numbers, as the dollar gets weaker, and its more advantageous for Canadians and Euuropeans to invest here. Last year $414 billion of foreign investors money went into buying stakes in American companies and building factories and purchasing stock, according to Thomson Financial. Thats up 90% from 2006 and represented one fourth of all announced deals. This year in just 2 weeks foreign investors poured $22.6 billion in just the first 2 weeks of January, and that represents one half of all deals. Shows how quickly the picture is changing. One way of looking at it is that Americans buy a lot of foreign goods and the money Americans use to pay for a lot of imports is now being returned to the USA in the form of foreign investments. Note that foreign investment is desirable because it brings new ideas and technology and new management methods to the host country from other countries. These foreign investors in many cases are able to make these investments overseas because they are good at what they do, having them in the host country benefits the host country and shakes up competition in the particular industry in the host country that is receiving the investment. This is why economies once relatively unfavorable to foreign investors like Japan and S. Korea are now passionately seeking foreign investment to make their economies thrive through the exchange and inflow of new ideas and ways of doing things. The same can be and is true for the USA. The other aspect is that most of the investment is still from countries like Canada, Germany, Japan, S. Korea which are big free trade partners of the USA. Manufacturing investment is heavily skewed to European and Japanese companies. Foreign multinational investment (Sony, Toyota etc) grew to $43.3 billion in 2007 from $39.2 billion in 2006 according to OCO Monitor, and will accelerate significantly as companies like VW and other German companies find it cheaper to build in the USA and shift more manufacturing here. To get an idea why the rhetoric is overblown Canada spent the most in buying American companies, $65 billion in 2007, according to Thomson Financial. Russia spent $572 million and India $3.3 billion. How will this improve the chances of the USA making it out of this recession? Five million American work for foreign companies in the USA. Of these one third are manufacturing jobs. These jobs pay about 30% more than jobs in American owned companies. Figures from Treasury Department. There will be more of these jobs as companies like VW build plants here. Roubini Economics estimates that an infusion of about $300-400 billion is needed for the USA to overcome the effects of the current mortgage and credit crisis. $414 billion was invested in the USA by foreign investors according to Thomson Financial in 2007, going up from something like $200 billion in 2006. If this pace continues becasue of some of the same underlying reasons as the weaker dollar, stronger economies overseas, then $200 billion additional investments this year would add that much to a stimulus package of $150 billion by one estimate, to provide a boost of somewhere around $350 billion. In the range of the needed boost. Companies like IBM and GE which have significant investments in India and China and investments in software or infrastructure industries that are growing rapidly or Caterpillar with growth in construction overseas, may keep growing through this downturn. This recession may hit selectively and differently, not be a complete hit to the USA economy, and could prevent it from going beyond 2009 with recovery in 2010. ...

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A detailed account of how the American airstrikes in Farah province look from the ground. CIvilians who may not have much to do with the Taliban get caught in these strikes, and burned bodies of women, girls, children are to be found along with destroyed homes. It only creates new volunteers among the young for the Taliban and legitimizes anti-American feelings after bombings of this kind. Its also exactly as the Taliban intended it, as they hid among the civilians with this in mind. US soldiers outnumbered in difficult terrain and vast spaces call in airstrikes after ambushes and difficult fights. The US has to do some serious problem solving on this one, or risk losing the support of ordinary Afghans , and with it the war. These are some of the tough choices in this war, with what kind of air support to fight this war. One that is pinpoint and based on accurate intelligence and in skirmishes in the open, but avoiding the kind that gets close to civilian areas. And finding other ways to tackle the problems. Having popular support is critical, and providing security is critical, which calls for more feet on the ground, more aid workers on the ground, and more to show for these efforts in reduced casualties and better lives of the people in each area. ...

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Social media companies such as Twitter were classified differently under Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act. This is now being reviewed as the companies are now seen as monopolies by the government, that the role of these companies has evolved as they reached tens of million of people around the world. Twitter started in 2006- the year the Act governing its regulation was written was ten years prior. And Twitter only reached its access to tens of millions by 2012, fifteen years after the Act was written.  Basically the White House is saying the social media companies role has changed since the Act was written and the law should keep up with the new situation. President Trump is expected to sign a draft executive order setting new rules that limits the broad legal protection status provided by the law written in 1996, when social media companies did not exist. The immediate event preceding the action, was the president's frustration with the fact check placed by Twitter on the president's comments on the issue of voter fraud when mail in ballots are used. The WSJ podcast and discussion shown here points to this not being a black and white issue, but one where there are different and diverging views as to the policy that should be followed, which are legitimate based on the evidence on each side. Making this not appropriate for a fact check as Twitter had done. The U.S. president's views and traditional Republican party views converge on this issue that mail in ballots favor the other party. ...

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"Trees not Warehouses" read signs protesting the building of more warehouse space in the US as residents protest the bringing of more noise, pollution and heavy duty trucks to their neighborhoods.Companies added over 1.5 billion square feet of new industrial space across the US from 2017, says this report in WSJ. A similar wave of building industrial space is taking place in Europe for warehouses. Communities from Pittsburgh to Madison, Wisconsin and neighborhoods in expanding logistics regions in Southern California and eastern Pennsylvania. Many say their communities are under siege. To get goods to people faster companies are still planning but have not made the shift to bringing construction back home or closer to home so that this kind of huge warehousing space is no longer needed. Much of this warehousing space may no longer be needed as more sustainable, more reliable,  shorter supply chains take the place of current ones that have concentrated all manufacturing in one country, China, at the hidden costs to local communities and companies. Through many hidden costs that have not been fully quantified in terms of quality of living in communities, loss of jobs and infrastructure through loss of tax revenues, carbon footprint of products shipped over thousands of miles, hidden logistics costs, rampant inflation in logistics costs, and significant loss of manufacturing knowhow that cannot be easily replaced. This is a result of decades of building such supply chains that no longer fit the needs of today. ...

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Pearlstein lists the names of insider investors for Facebook- Peter Theiel and Founders Fund, Jim Breyer and Accel Partners, Greylock Partners, Microsoft, Li-Ka-shing, Bono and Elevation Partners, Alisher Usmanov and DSL. For full disclosure he states Washington Post Co. chairman, Donald Graham, is on the board of Directors of Facebook. Venture capitalists are leveraging their position in Facebook to get new investors, share prices of companies involved are up. Goldman benefits by the $60 millon for placing client money in Facebook, a cut of 5% from any profit they earn, and the hundreds of millions of dollars from being a lead underwriter for Facebook's IPO. What all this does is create the conditions for a bubble for internet stocks similiar to the bubble in late 1990's, with insiders reaping most of the benefits and the public taking on most of the risk as the internet stock loses its dominant position with the entry of new technologies and competitors in the market or a change in consumer preferences. As was evident in the earlier bubble this is not hard to create. Some of these bubbles are in fact already taking place for Chinese internet stocks on US stock exchanges, with investigation staking place into accounting practices of some of these companies. With the financial electronic media and analysts doing their part in the hype and sell such a bubble is underway, just when the debt burdened US middle class can ill-afford any losses that may take place. ...

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A bill passed in the House and now going to the Senate in the US will put a tax on remittances of 3.5% for people who are not US citizens or nationals. It was at 5% but lowered to 3.5% just before the vote. 

Total remittances from the US in 2023 are  $656 billion, according to the World Bank. Total remittances to Africa from US $12 billion of $92 billion total. DW.com shows a family outside Accra, Ghana depending on these remittances for food, medicine and education.

An out of control migrant problem with tens of millions of migrants flooding the US and Europe became a major issue in the 2024 US election. Voters clearly supported strong action to control migration and human smuggling across borders.

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Simple numerical skills, finding information on a website might be difficult for a good third of the American population. Peggy Carr, a Commissioner at the Education Department says- "There’s a dwindling middle in the United States in terms of skills. Over time we’ve seen more adults clustered at the bottom.”  US is lagging behind other countries and is also having a shocking level of lack of basic skills for a significant part of the population. The failure of the Education Department and different administration's programs in the last 3 decades suggests need for companies and individuals to come up with their own efforts- including use of Lyrarc.com for reading comprehension and numerical skills. The number of test takers whose skills were at about the level of a primary school student in math went up to 34% in 2024 up from 29% in 2017. Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies Test was given in 31 economic regions, to 161,000 people of which 2600 were in the US. It was given in 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2023. US ranked 14th in literacy, 15th in adaptive problem solving, and 24th in numerical skills. Countries doing best ranked are Finland, Japan Norway, Sweden and Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium and Denmark. Northern Europe does best and Japan.   ...

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Modi's visit to Moscow and Vienna could be symbolic in setting the stage for a Ukraine peace settlement. Here is why- Austria was occupied by the western powers and the Soviets in 1945. By 1955 Austria sought to become a free country free of occupation zones. It offered its neutrality and asked Indian prime minister Nehru to convey this to the Soviets. Nehru was seen by Austrians as the only person in international affairs who could talk to the Soviets about Austrian neutrality to end occupation. Nehru and his ambassador to Moscow Menon met with Austrian officials. When Russian foreign minister Molotov was approached on the Austrian neutrality proposal by Menon in Moscow Molotov said such neturality could be revoked, Russia needed better assurances. It was the death of Stalin in 1953 that led to the Russian position changing and relaxing its occupation of Austria. Bruno Kreisky, Austrian prime minister, says in his memoirs that the name of Nehru will forever be connected to Austrian neutrality and independence. This led to an independent Austria being formed in July 1955. As Austria accepted entry into the European Union in 1995 and identified with US and EU this part of its history is now forgotten. So it is again that Indira Gandhi in 1983 and Narendra Modi in 2024 visit Vienna. In 2024 Modi can be seen as the only person in international affairs who could take the message of a peace settlement in Ukraine to Russia. For this reason and because of India's call that the war cannot be settled on the battlefield that Modi is stepping into the role that Nehru played in 1955, even though this role is in its early stages. This shows the relationship with Russia has meaning for Europe even as India sees itself as a partner of the US and Europe and Japan. As in 1953 the results are not there, yet as in 1953 this and a changing world situation could finally lead toa breakthrough in this war in Ukraine.   ...

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One perspective of what Silicon Valley is focused on is shown by Reid Hoffman. It does not mention climate change, not one word on climate change, no words on cost of living action, little is said about factories and jobs for reviving American manufacturing, helping workers and families and redesigning the world's supply chains. It is critical of addressing monopolies and regulatory action by the FTC even where it is needed. It calls for huge investments in AI that would leave little for investments in science, education, healthcare and infrastructure, and says "trust us to do the right thing." It calls for pro-innovation direction when pro-innovation has been the thrust of policy for three decades with the results that we have seen leading to widening gas between the upper and lower classes and shrinking of the middle, a pharma industry out of control in pricing, and negligible investments in education by so called "tech" companies who like Apple have outsourced manufacturing to China. A return to tech and Silicon Valley is not needed as embedding it in the nation's policy making priorities is the Nation's problem. ...

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US District Judge O'Toole of Massachusetts allows DJT Musk DOGE buyout offer to go ahead on Feb 12, after freezing it to have enough time to study it. The buyout offer originally expired Feb 6. It was accepted by 60,000 federal employees. Of 2 million federal workforce about 8% are expected to take it. It is seen as a way for people doing remote work and now required to come to office 5 days a week full time to take early retirement, sort of an off ramp for these workers. DJT says some of these workers may be doing other second or even third jobs. This is part of a Republican effort to reduce the cost of the large federal bureaucracy, and make it more efficient. One of many actions including action on budget discipline at agencies of the government. PPBS or Zero Based Budgeting, since the 1970's is one of the managemt ideas which involves justifiying every item in the budget every year to cut costs and cut unneeded spending. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has spent years identifying pet projects of bureaucrats that are in budgets but lack common sense. ...

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The former interim Speaker Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican North Carolina, tells a University of Chicago student audience that one can hold off a majority Congressmen only for so long, that there could be a two third majority in the House favoring the Ukraine aid. That bill for $61 billion in Ukraine aid passed the US Senate 70-30 with 22 Republican Senators supporting it but is blocked for 2 weeks by Speaker Mike Johnson for a House vote. Former Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin tell a Washington Post event that House Speaker Mike Johnson has to make up his mind to be decisive and take action that get things done. Ryan served as vice presidential nominee and became Speaker in October 2015 eight years before Mike Johnson in a similar situation where his job depended on different factions. Mike Johnson's view is that he wants to be seen as listening to all members to kind of decentralizing things. Yet as more experienced members of Congress say the only way to get things done is for the Speaker to take action on his own accord and let the situation rest there having done his best. This situation is happening today in the House as about half of all Congressmen in the House of Representatives have not served in Congress before January 2019, says The Washington Post. ...

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Baby boomers and older Americans are beginning a huge wealth transfer, the largest in modern history. Americans over 70 years in age had net worth of nearly $35 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve data. This is 27% of all US wealth, up 20% from 1990. This wealth is 157% of US gross domestic product, more than double what it was in 1990. Gift tax exemption today is $11.7 million for individuals and $23.4 million for couples. It is scheduled to go down to 2017 level of $5.49 million per person adjusted for inflation in 2026. Annual gifts were $75 billion in 2016. The Biden administration proposed reducing a $40 billion annual tax break in some of these wealth transfers. Some of this would go into infrastructure spending. Other ways the transfers could help the communities in the US revive after the twin crises of 2009 and 2020, one financial and one health, is how some of this money goes into funding many of the needs of communities in America today. $9 trillion is expected to go into helping communities from the $35 trillion. The Buffett children foundations have purchased farmland to create an agricultural hub in Kingston, New York, on the Hudson River north of New York city. They also set up a food cooperative in an old Honda dealership, and setup a ad free community radio station Radio Kingston. More of this kind of work is needed from individuals and couples in the American tradition of community awareness and solidarity, and in communities across Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America during this pandemic following the same practice. ...

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This report in the WSJ points out that any idea that China as the world's largest importer would support oil prices is misplaced. China's economy is recovering slowly but the impact of the falling demand in U.S. and Europe for Chinese products is likely to keep industrial production at low levels. Other than filling up for storage at low prices China is not likely to support oil prices which are now below $20 for U.S. WTI futures contracts for June. European benchmarks are also at levels similar to U.S. oil prices.

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Robert Frank, an economist at Cornell and visiting Professor at the Stern School of Business at NYU, says this deficit increasing our debt burden is entirely different from the way in which the Bush administration increased the national debt. During the last 8 years the Bush deficits increased the national debt by almost $5 trillion. But people went for larger mansions, and consumers went on aconsumption binge, and the Bush tax cuts were skewed to help the wealthy. Now to address the economic crisis a similiar amount of about $5 trillion will be needed but it will be spent quite differently. Money spent on ropads and building infrastructure that is needed is money well spent on any dimension. Especiallyfor America's crumbling roads and bridges and highways. If postponed these would cost more or twice as much to fix. Frank's point is that alot depends on what you do with the money. At recent interest rates servicing $10 trillion in debt costs about $400 billion annually. He says thats quite manageable. Just by instituting agasoline tax of $2 agallon as the Europeans do and are not alot poorer dfor this, the US could generate $100 billion ayear. When Americans are using mass transit in the largest numbers in 50 years, it also makes sense to build better faster transportation systems between major cities, like the high speed trains in Europe....

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The graphs show some striking results for the nation's trucking industry. Leading trucking company YRC Worldwide inthe LTL less than truckload niche of the trucking industry shows a 90% decline in shipping volume and has seen its shares decline by 90%. It is having problems with more nimble regional competitors as it strugggles to complete amerger of Yellow with Roadway trucking companies. In the midst of this merger it has been hit hard by drop in shipping volumes. Formed by a series of acquisitions YRC has 60,000 employees and 25,000 trucks with 25% of the LTL market. Other companies feeling the dramatic drop in freight shipping are UPS with a decline of about 40% and Fedex a decline of 50% shown in the graph. Union Pacific sees a decline of 5% in freight volumes for 4th quarter. Its the same story at the other railroads Norfolk, Burlington, and CSX. And ocean transport is showing a drop of 7% for the January to September period 2008 over 2007 for shipping containers entering the US through the top 10 container ports, according to HIS Global Insights. And the credit crisis is choking off credit to trucking companies, with 4000 of the 200,000 for hire trucking concerns in the US expected to fail. ...

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How Caliofornia's Bay Area Transit System and other  fast transit operations are adjusting to the trend to remote work in the US as fewer passengers travel into cities.